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Monday, February 10: Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

February 10, 2020

Tonight, the Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 will be my focus. It's a 0.20 wager, with a 15% takeout and a $75,000 guaranteed pool.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-Xelene Bayama (6-1)-Roy's choice was a 10-time winner in '19 but recent form has been so-so. Will bite on the connections and the best finish since 12/22 came with Roy between the pipes.
5-Hammering Haley (3-1)-1st time Auciello off a claim makes Haley a more appealing play. Will respect 14-time winner in '19 but is only 1-14 at Wbsb.
7-E R Rhonda (2-1)-Keeps getting claimed and has been either 1st or 2nd in every start except once since at least the beginning of November. McNair steers for Shepherd and should be right there at the wire once again.

Race 2

2-Joani Treelane (5/2)-Makes 3rd start off the bench and looking for better. Should be in the mix but is 0-7 and could be bet down off the morning line.
6-Charmbo Prince (2-1)-Was stuck with post 10 in debut and was raced from the back. That was a nice tune-up and trotted the last half in 58.3 with the final quarter in 28.3. Could be ready to roll and the short field should help chances.

Race 3

3-P L Jill (2-1)-Spotted the leader 11 lengths at the 1/4 pole and still cruised home as an odds-on favorite. Back again at the same class and is a must use.
5-Derf Hanover (5-1)-McNair will probably be leaving and may need a near perfect trip to win. But if gets the top and can hit the breaks or catch a 2-hole ride good things can happen.

Race 4

4-Casimir Overdrive (5/2)-Returns to the Moreau barn but no matter who trains Casimir keeps taking pictures. Once again looks like the one to beat and with a clean trip may pick up 4th win in 5 starts this year.
7-Tomy Terror (5-1)-Has been trying hard and if there is an upset my chips will be on Tomy. May benefit from a fast track and should be fine from this post coming off cover.

Race 5

1-Refi (2-1)-Program chalk looks the part drawing off to win last 2 starts. This guy will be singled on many tickets and last 2 wins were on an off-track where he has won 4 of 8. I'll look to a fast track possibly helping the rest of the field.
2-Knopfler (8-1)-Henriksen trainee seems to be rounding into form. Last effort was better and will look for upswing to continue.
9-Blazing Trail (7/2)-Post makes it a bigger challenge for sure but has been sharp and had an excuse with broken equipment in last. JMac can find some cover and if pace is lively chances for success go up.
10-Steuben Hanover (4-1)-Maybe the 2nd tier won't hurt as much with starting behind #1, the chalk who should be leaving protecting the rail. Makes 2nd start off the bench and is another who could be rolling late.

My Ticket

Race 1) 2,5,7

Race 2) 2,6

Race 3) 3,5

Race 4) 4,7

Race 5) 1,2,9,10

Total Ticket Cost) $19.20 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia