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Monday, February 24: Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

February 24, 2020

Tonight's Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 will be my focus. The sequence has a $75,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and it starts in Race 1.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

1-Up And Trending (9/5)-Couldn't have started much slower but flew home to miss by a length in 1st start of the year. The morning line could be correct, but I can't fully trust this green 3-year-old.
4-Hoya Saxa (9/2)-Can't seem to find the winning formula but best to not overlook here. My guess is Hudon leaves and controls the fractions and could take a picture for the 1st time.
5-Petro Chrome (10-1)-Might look to get a good early seat and if minds manners can stay in the mix at long odds.
Was on the bench from 9/29 until last week and should be tighter tonight.

Race 2

4-Brookletsjustified (3-1)-Took the short way around in last and barely missed snagging #6 at the wire. Filion is back between the pipes and this time comes back in 1-week instead of 3.
6-Lone Wolf Terror (2-1)-Flew home in 53.3 after trailing the field by 15 at the first call. Looks like a major player versus many of the same and shorter field improves chances.

Race 3

6-Hockey Hanover (7/2)-Made a miscue in last as a 9/5 favorite and jumped off-stride. McNair may blast out to get the top and control the pace. If that happens chances for a picture goes up.
7-Sortie (5-1)-Not sure if 5-1 is worth the risk because of breaking issues but might be overlooked at the windows. Moves up after a nice win and maybe thing are changing for the better, as there have been clean lines in 2 of last 3 starts.
8-Monopoly (5/2)-Was turned out this past summer and now makes 4th start of this year. Was overmatched in previous 3 races but fits better with this crew and has won 7 of 32 at Wbsb.

Race 4

1-Fly Beyond (5-1)-Drops after being used hard to get the top and set a brisk pace until fading late. Does have only 1 win in last 26 starts but that came recently on 2/1. Will respect chances to get the top and stay in the hunt.
3-Hey Livvy (5/2)-Even effort in 1st start off the bench. The Gillis barn has been rolling so this could be go-time in 2nd race of the year. This mare has faced some tough customers and is a big threat if ready.
8-Pikachu Hanover (7/2)-This is a bigger test than last week when raced the back half in 54.3 to cash the biggest check. Form has been too good to dismiss, and post makes for a better price.

Race 5

2-Xelene Bayama (8-1)-Comes off a 10-win year and this might be the spot to snag 1st picture of 2020. Post draw shouldn't hurt chances and drops to a good spot. Could win at a nice price with a good steer from Young.
7-Lucky Player (9/2)-Came up with a very efficient win in 1st start for Cullen barn as an even money chalk. Faces many of the same and could leave again to get a seat near the top of the stack.
9-E R Rhonda (5/2)-9-year-old mare drops back in versus those she has dominated. Even from the outside post best to respect until her form falters versus this kind.

My Ticket

Race 1) 1,4,5

Race 2) 4,6

Race 3) 6,7,8

Race 4) 1,3,8

Race 5) 2,7,9

Total Ticket Cost) $32.40 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia