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Saturday, March 14: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Seigel

March 14, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Majestic Diva; 3-Sheza Factor

Forecast: Majestic Diva just demolished a $12,500 field by almost 10 lengths and earned a giant speed figure that if repeated today will be more than good enough to win right back despite the two-level class hike. She’s had plenty of time to recover from the effort, has trained nicely since, and offers wagering value at 3-1 on the morning line if you can get it. Sheza Factor might be worth tossing in as a saver. A two-time winner over the local main track, she’s a first-off-the-claim play for V. Garcia and projects to be the controlling speed.

RACE 2: Post 1:29 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 5-Quick Finish; 6-Black Storm

Forecast: Despite failing to change leads in the stretch, Black Storm drew away with complete authority to win a $20,000 claimer two weeks ago and did so with a speed figure that makes him double tough right back despite the raise into the first-level state-bred allowance ranks. He has the proper style for this extended sprint distance in a field without much speed, so we’ll put the G. Stute-trained gelding on top and hope to get close to his morning line of 3-1. Quick Finish can be used as a back-up or a saver. The D. Blacker-trained gelding has been away since last May but is training quite well and should fire a big shot fresh. He has enough early speed to be in the first flight – maybe even in front – and given that type of trip could get brave.

RACE 3: Post 1:59 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Big Sweep; 2-Approved for Flyby; 3-Loud Loud Music

Forecast There are lots of question marks in this maiden state bred sprint for fillies and mares, so we’ll include three in our rolling exotics but otherwise sit it out. Big Sweep lands F. Prat for her debut and this $40,000 yearling by Mr. Big sports a steady if unspectacular series of workouts that should have her plenty fit. Approved for Flyby a daughter of Vronsky, has a six furlong 1:13.2h workout last month that catches the eye for capable veteran trainer E. Truman and should be a live item on the tote. Loud Loud Music has a brief work tab at Los Alamitos that looks intriguing for S. Miyadi, whose debut runners rarely are advertised in the a.m. The daughter of Tizbud could easily be much better than the moderate workout times might indicate.

RACE 4: Post 2:31 PT. Grade: B
Use: 5-Kadesh; 6-Big Hoof Dynamite

Forecast: Kadesh just won a maiden $30,000 claimer by more than 13 lengths and earned a speed figure that makes him a solid fit for new connections in this starter optional claimer. The son of Karakontie probably won’t get the soft pace pressing trip that he just enjoyed so he still has something to prove, but we’re thinking that the H. Palma-trained colt, who has produced a forward move in each of his five career starts, will be able to step forward once again. Big Hoof Dynamite also is improving and actually won a photo from Kadesh when they met two races back. He’s reunited with “win rider” F. Prat and should settle into a good stalking position outside and have every chance from the quarter pole home. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Kadesh.

RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Li’l Grazen; 4-Songofthedesert; 10-Win Often

Forecast: Li’l Grazen, away since January of 2019, returns protected in a sign of confidence by trainer P. Miller, attracts hot-riding U. Rispoli, and shows a strong, healthy work tab at San Luis Rey Downs. Most effective as a late-running sprinter, she catches a field with plenty of heat to compliment her style and at this extended sprint trip seems capable of producing the last run. Win Often is drawn comfortably outside and should draft into an ideal second flight, stalking position. She’s back on dirt after earning a career top number when second on grass last time out. Songofthedesert, first off the claim for J. Wong (a massive 36% with this angle), vans down from the Bay Area and is clearly well-meant while being raised into the allowance ranks. She appears to be the most dangerous of the speed types and will take them as far as she dan.

RACE 6: Post 3:35 PT. Grade: X
Use: 2-Great Power; 6-Charlatan

Forecast: Charlatan earned a triple-digit, Grade-1 quality speed figure in his runaway debut maiden win and today removes blinkers, moves up a notch in class and stretches out to a mile. We’ll find out what he’s made in this highly-competitive first-level allowance event, because also in the field is a colt with a similar resume, Great Power a visually highly-impressive maiden first-out winner in fast time during the fall season, training superbly for his comeback, and stretching out to a distance he’s seems certain to enjoy. In a race matching two colts with classic aspirations, it’s a good one to watch but perhaps not a great one to bet on. We’ll pass but include both in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Charlatan.

RACE 7: Post 4:07 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Ollie’s Candy; 7-Ce Ce

Forecast: Ce Ce tries two turns for the first time - she was fourth in the Acorn S.-G1 at a one turn mile last year - and based on her comeback win looks capable of being up to the task in a terrific edition of the Beholder Mile-G1 for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Elusive Quality could not have been more impressive beating a lesser field in a common gallop and has trained superbly since. We’re projecting the M. McCarthy-trained filly to settle in mid-pack outside and then turn on the pressure from the top of the lane to the wire. Ollie’s Candy is the most dangerous of the closing types and if she gets some help up front could easily blow past everybody in the final furlong. The daughter of Candy Ride, away since finishing a respectable fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 in November, switches to F. Prat and appears ready to embark on a terrific 5-year-old season. We’ll sink or swim in rolling exotic play using these two and then have extra tickets keying Ce Ce on top.

RACE 8: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Blazing Charm; 6-Our Romance

Forecast: Our Romance has much in her favor while dropping into a maiden claimer for the first time and the P. D’Amato-trained filly, after hitting the board in three of her last four races when facing tougher straight maiden foes should greatly appreciate this easier task. She’s also shortening up to a sprint and switching to the main track, so under these more favorable conditions the daughter of Archarcharch seems very likely to produce a winning effort. There’s value here at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it. Blazing Charm is a sneaky first-timer from an outfit that does well with debut runners, and with F. Prat taking the call the daughter of James Street may be a bit better than her moderate workout times might lead one to believe. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on a ticket or two as a saver.