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Sunday, March 22: Santa Anita Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

March 22, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day MakersView Video

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Nardini; 10-Lofty

Forecast: Lofty has found her niche as a turf sprinter. After crushing a maiden state-bred field with a big speed figure two races back, she verified the strength of that performance by coming back to win for fun again last month vs. an overmatched optional claiming field while earning a stakes-quality number. A repeat of either one of these two races will be good enough to handle this first-level Cal-bred field, her extreme outside draw notwithstanding. As a back-up you should probably consider Nardini, a lightly-raced and improving daughter of Acclamation trying grass for the first time. She’s nowhere near as fast on numbers as Lofty but if the turf moves her up – as we suspect it will – the A. Mathis-trained filly could make a run for it.

RACE 2: Post 1:02 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Tiz Wonderfully; 4-Majestic Diva; 6-Indypendent Deputy

Forecast: This race has a few question marks and no real value to be found, so we’ll sit it while going three-deep in our rolling exotics. Tiz Wonderfully isn’t particularly fast on numbers but she’s genuine and consistent and on pure form as good as any. Majestic Diva won by a pole when competing for this $12,500 price and earning a career top speed figure two runs back but then bounced to the moon in her next outing, finishing last of seven with her Beyer speed figure dropping 33 points. Which version will show up today? Indypendent Deputy returns to her claim level in her second start off a layoff and the W. Spawr-trained veteran mare should greatly appreciate the softer assignment and not really mind the return to the main track (she’s a three-time winner on dirt). She does her best work from off the pace and should be heard from late.

RACE 3: Post 1:35 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Golden Sparkle; 6-Hammering Lemon

Forecast: Hammering Lemon has worked pretty well since his non-threatening debut earlier this month and may be better than shown. The Square Eddie colt was off slowly and never got untracked on grass, but today adds blinkers, switches to dirt, lands the cozy outside post and should be able to show his best stuff in a modest state-bred extended sprint. Golden Sparkle has trained okay in the morning for J. Cassidy and probably is worth tossing in at least as a backup. Based on his workouts, he’ll be running on late. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics; you may feel the need to spread a bit deeper.

RACE 4: Post 2:07 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Jaxson’s Goldie; 6-Neutrino; 8-Palaleo

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive maiden claiming turf sprint that has a few possibilities. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Jaxon’s Goldie, first off the claim for R. Hess, Jr., is raised from $30,000 to $50,000 in a sign of confidence and this shortened grass trip might suite him very well. The son of Goldencents has only one way to go from the rail – on the lead – and if he breaks cleanly he could take some catching. Palaleo, away for more than year, returns with F. Prat in the saddle so we’re assuming he’s fit and ready. The J. Bonde-trained gelding is bred for grass (Noble Mission) and finally gets a chance to show what he can do after being forced to compete in two off-the-turf events before being stopped on. Neutrino has flashed some ability in the morning for J. Sadler so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as well. He was entered yesterday in a straight maiden turf sprint but failed to draw in from the also-eligible list, so we’d have to think he’ll fit in this league.

RACE 5: Post 2:39 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Conquest Cobra; 2-Fabozzi

Forecast: Fabozzi has been close without being able to seal the deal lately but his numbers are strong so maybe he’s due for some luck. Winless in the last two years but with the proper style for this extended sprint distance, the M. Glatt-trained gelding retains A. Cedillo, shortens up, and should have every chance to produce the last run. Conquest Cobra, third in the same race Fabozzi just finished second in, clearly is the one to fear most. A two-time winner at seven furlongs, the Pioneerof the Nile gelding retains F. Prat and should be forwardly placed throughout in a race that projects to have soft early fractions. These two are difficult to separate; we’ll operate under the assumption that the winner will be one or the other but pass the race.

RACE 6: Post 3:09 PT. Grade: B
Use: 7-Shines Her Light; 8-Teachers Big Dream; 10-Mind Out

Forecast: Here’s another tough and competitive race, this one over a mile on grass for entry-level allowance 3-year-old fillies. Mind Out has plenty of talent and should make an excellent 3-year-old for S. Callaghan. The daughter of Tapit walked out of the gate but still got up and won her debut sprinting on grass last summer and then finished a solid third in the Surfer Girl Stakes over this course and distance during the fall meeting while appearing a bit green. She returns with blinkers on, retains F. Prat, and looks the most dangerous of the closers, so we’ll put her on top. Teachers Big Dream is lightly-raced, improving, continues to impress in the a.m., and just won over this course and distance with career top speed figure. She loses U. Rispoli (who understandably opts for Shines Her Light) but picks up one of this barn’s go-to riders, E. Maldonado. We suspect she’s better than her morning line of 10-1. Shines Her Light won her U. S. debut sprinting on grass in good style and should be tough on the raise. The stretch out to a mile won’t bother her in the least; she finished second of 20 at this distance in a handicap in Ireland last summer.

RACE 7: Post 3:39 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Dano’s Dream; 3-I Can Do This; 5-Jamming Eddy

Forecast: I Can Do This is a two-time winner over the Santa Anita main track and generally runs well at this flat mile trip. He has a good stalking style and is reunited with “win rider” A. Cedeno so in a wide open affair we’ll put him on top. Dano’s Dream, second in two photo finishes in his last pair up north, tries his luck on conventional dirt after vanning down from Golden Gate Fields and if he can duplicate his all-weather speed figures over the Santa Anita main track he could be hard to beat. However, his career record on dirt – 5-0-0-0 – hardly inspires. He picks up U. Rispoli, so there’s that. Jamming Eddy is pretty much in the same boat – decent form on grass, not so hot on dirt – but his numbers are gradually rising so maybe he’s a better type now. The Square Eddie gelding probably is most effective when held up early and allowed to run late.

RACE 8: Post 4:09 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 4-Just Grazed Me; 5-Tigre Di Slugo

Forecast: Let’s go for a price in this grass grab bag sprint stakes for state-bred older runners. Tigre Di Slugo will be making his first start on the sod but he’s a progressive sort with a powerful late kick and with another forward move could easily outrun his 12-1 morning line odds and maybe do more than just that. F. Prat knows him well, stays aboard, and should have this lightly-raced son of Smiling Tiger within range and ready to pounce from the quarter pole home. Just Grazed Me tackles the boys today after missing without an apparent excuse at 50 cents on the dollar in the Sunshine Millions Filly & Mare Turf Sprint over this course and distance in January. She may have a lost a half step, but there’s no doubting her class, so you have to use her. There are several other legitimate contenders in the field, but we’ll try to get by using just these two with preference on top to Tigre Di Slugo.

RACE 9: Post 4:39 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 3-Indy Jones; 5-Cross Town

Forecast: The finale is a restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming miler with nothing to trust. Anything goes. Cross Town just broke his maiden with an okay number, retains F. Prat, and should get the patient ride that apparently he requires. He’s 6-1 on the morning line, and probably is worth that price if you can get it. Indy Jones, in the frame in his last pair at this level, switches to A. Cedillo and seems likely to draft into a comfortable pace-stalking position and have every chance from there. We’ll sink or swim with just these two in our rolling exotics but otherwise not get too involved.