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Friday, March 28: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

March 28, 2020

Cal Expo has a 10-race card ready to go with a first post at 6:10 PST. The 0.20 Pick 4 begins in Race 7 and it has a $30,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence has a 16% takeout and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

1-Sin Machqueen (6-1)-Comes off an easy win against much cheaper. By starting on the rail versus this field, a nice trip could be in the cards. Will take a swing for a solid price with a fresh horse making its 4th start this year.
3-Dependlebury A (3-1)-Drops to the level of last win back on 2-8 and was Plano's pick over #8. Looks like a player who should be put in play early.
4-Marced Magic (5/2)-Will toss last from the 9-hole, started very slowly and couldn't make-up enough ground. Should fit much better at this level.
5-Mystery Dragon (9/2)-Drops to a more comfortable spot and was overmatched in last two starts. Barn has been doing well and was Roland's choice over #7.

Race 8

2-Joker John (8-1)-Roland's pick over #6 who is the 2nd ML choice. Flew down the lane but came up short to finish 3rd versus most of this field. Should be put in play earlier and could win at a square price with a top effort.
3-My Muddy Buddy (12-1)-Closed well off a ground saving trip and now makes 3rd start for new barn. Might be sitting on a big try and could be in the hunt at long odds.
5-Lickcreek Speedway (5-1)-Team Kennedy entry gets some post relief and can grind her way into contention. Winner of 7 out of 32 tries at CalX and should be in the mix tonight.
7-California Rock (5/2)-Comes off a win and this is 2nd time Lasix. 4-year old Rockin Image gelding loves the track and is consistently consistent. This is a likely single on many tickets.

Race 9

5-Virgin Eyes (2-1)-11-time winner in '19 has only taken 1-picture this year. Drops out of Open company and Plano takes a spin. Magee chose #4, but Corbin barn has won at a 19% clip over last 30-days and this could be a spot to shine.
6-Capitol Hill (5/2)-Fell short by <1-length last week when dropped to this level. Should be a major player if Cutting works a trip and puts into striking range. The short field can only help chances.

Race 10

2-Outlawintriguedbyu (7/2)-Rolled a 56.2 back half but fell a neck short. Magee's pick over #5, the program favorite, tries hard but doesn't win often. This looks like a beatable field and a spot to trip out.
5-Shock N Awe (2-1)-Takes a good drop and should be a major threat. Has won only 3 times in last 32 and is 2-14 at CalX. Doesn't have a lot to beat in here but won't trust as a single.

My Ticket

Race 7) 1,3,4,5

Race 8) 2,3,5,7

Race 9) 5,6

Race 10) 2,5

Total Ticket Cost) $12.80 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter, @AlCimaglia