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April 1: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

April 1, 2020

Cal Expo has a 10-race card set to go at 3:30 PST with the 0.20 Pick 4 beginning in Race 7. Last night the Pick 4 pool was slightly over $92,000 and it was a very chalky sequence until a 20-1 shot took the final leg. The (6-2-1-5) 0.20 ticket paid $82.82.

Tonight's sequence will have another $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

4 Joker John (6-1)-Will toss last with an interference break, usually tries hard and should be in the mix with this crew.
5-Lickcreek Speedway (5/2)-Kennedy can put this mare in play to use one big move to take control.
6-California Rock (2-1)-Consistent plus likes to win and that's a very good combo. Plano can find cover or make an early move to get the lead. Looks like a major player.

Race 8

1-King Of The Crop (6-1)-Steps-up after winning off a nice trip and is Svendsen's choice over #5. Shooting for a nice price to add some pop to the Pick 4. Might be able to top this field with a smooth trip.
2-Bunkerhill Bill (9/2)-9-year old fits with these but is basically an on the engine type and he can take that kind of trip here. Should be able to get the top and Roberts will look to control the pace.
5-Almost Cut My Hair (8-1)-Won on 3-6 with a pocket ride versus similar and could get the same trip here.
7-Pancetta (6-1)-Plano's choice over the #3 and #8 seldom wins, just 2-28 over the past 2 years. But can score against this crew with a top effort. Plano beat cheaper on 3-6, he knows how to work the right trip to take another photo.

Race 9

1-Bettor In The Bank (2-1)-Comes off a nice win and is back in at the same class. 10-year-old has won 24 of 62 CalX starts and should be bet hard. Looks like a player but is trip dependent.
2-Mystery Dragon (4-1)-Even effort in last when dropped to this level. Looking for better and will respect the Roland-Q. Schneider combo.
6-Mister Hat (4-1)-Mister cashes checks but doesn't like to win. This is a significant drop-in class and best to respect tonight.

Race 10

1-Custards Dungeon (5/2)-Odds-on favorite comes off a win last weekend at this class and now draws the rail. Looks like a serious threat and should be bet hard again.
3-Therealgoods (3-1)-Won 4-back and lost last 3 by 1-length or less at this level. Beaten chalk should be right there again.
8-My Muddy Buddy (6-1)-Roberts sticks, and this is a more comfortable spot. Hasn't won since 1-11 but that was against similar. Could do the same here if brings a top try.

0.20 Pick 4

Total Bet=$21.60

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