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Sunday, April 05: Gulfstream Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

April 5, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Awesome Evil; 5-Water Wizard; 11-Tumbadora

Forecast: The Sunday program begins with another one of those first-off-the-claim class droppers from the S. Joseph, Jr., barn that looks tough to beat. Tumbadora, taken out of her debut in February for $25,000 in a race in which she flashed early speed for a half before packing it in, returns in a very soft spot for stable that hits a remarkable 40% (with massive flat-bet profit) with this angle, and from her outside post against this modest group she should have every chance to show her true abilities. The daughter of Awesome Again removes blinkers (love the angle), but at 8/5 on the morning line there won’t be much value to be found. Those trying to beat the favorite should consider Awesome Evil and Water Wizard in rolling exotic play. ‘Evil has shown nothing in two starts since joining the P. Walder barn but picks up a stronger rider (V. Lebron) could improve enough with patient tactics to make some noise at 15-1 on the morning line. ‘Wizard (9/2) is gradually improving with experience and will be doing her best work from the quarter pole home. A little certain will go a long way in this bottom-rung affair.

RACE 2: Post 1:31 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-La Cara Bonita; 9-Swirling Candy

Forecast: La Cara Bonita and Swirling Candy couldn’t be separated when dead-heating for third in a starter optional $25,000 claiming turf sprint last month and they are tough to differentiate right back in this restricted (nw-2) $20,00 seller over the same course and distance. For whatever it’s worth (probably not much), there’s a two pound weight shift in favor of Swirling Candy, but perhaps more significant is that she’s the quicker of the two and has the option of popping and going from her outside draw or stalking and pouncing. The speed figure that she earned when graduating two runs back is considerably better than par for this level; however in that race she was able to smoothly establish the pace while in her last outing (and today as well) that kind of easy front-running trip might not be so readily available. La Cara Bonita is reunited with “win rider” L. Saez and projects to be prominent throughout – perhaps right behind the leaders – and then have her chance to kick home through the lane. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play with a slight edge on top to Swirling Candy.

RACE 3: Post 2:05 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Kiffle; 3-Nothings Free; 6-Baby Ice

Forecast: We’ll go three deep in the third race, a main track $10,000 claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares. Kiffle drops to her lowest level ever after flashing speed and then fading in a $25,000 seller two-turning on grass in late December. First or second in nine of 12 career starts, retaining T. Gafflione, and returning to her preferred distance and surface, the daughter of Take Charge Indy makes her first start since being transferred to the the R. Hess, Jr. barn and has only one way to go from her 2-hole draw. Her best chance for a gate-to-wire performance most likely depends on how much early pressure Nothins Free, drawn just to her right, can apply. Listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and freshened since mid-January, the veteran Flat Out mare shortens from a couple of one-turn mile efforts and always has been most effective on the front end. Can she stalk and win if the situation dictates? Baby Ice, certain to be the beneficiary of an early pace duel should one materialize, projects into an ideal second flight position and then have every chance to wear down the leaders when it counts. She’s moving up in class while seeking her third straight score but is a genuine and consistent race mare with the perfect style this six and one-half furlong trip.

RACE 4: Post 2:36 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Cryogenic

Forecast: Crogenic is in good form for M. Maker, switches to the barn’s go-to rider L. Saez, and has an ideal second flight, stalking style for this five furlong turf trip. First or second in 11 of 23 career starts, the son of Soldat remains protected in this Florida-bred first-level allowance optional claimer and is logically the one to beat at 8/5 on the morning line. He may wind up being a bit too short to play in the win pool but we can use him as a short-price rolling exotic single.

RACE 5: Post 3:08 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Starship Voyager; 8-Seayouatthebreakers

Forecast: This is an intriguing Florida-bred maiden sprint for fillies and mares. Starship Voyager is a first-time starter bred to win early (Big Drama) and with a series of promising workouts on her resume. A good, athletic mover with a touch of quality, she’s listed at 10-1 on the morning line for a low jockey-trainer combo, so her price (10-1 morning line) should remain reasonable. The rail always is a concern with a debut runner but if she manages to break cleanly and work out a decent trip, she has a chance to produce an upset score. New Yorker shipper Seayouatthebreakers, away since May of last year when she displayed good speed in a couple of maiden special weight outings at Belmont Park, lands the comfortable outside box and J. Rosario following a series of decent drills that should have plenty fit. The daughter of Hard Spun is 4-1 on the morning line but we suspect she’ll go lower than that. Preference on top – especially at the price – goes to Starship Voyager but we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 6: Post 3:39 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Gotta Go Mo; 2-Backside Beauty; 3-No No Nina

Forecast: This is a challenging five furlong turf sprint for open maiden fillies and mares. Backside Beauty, a first-timer by Orb, brought $150,000 in the OBS April sale last year after impressing in the preview session when she breezed a furlong in 10 1/5 seconds. The L. Rivelli barn has excellent stats with debut runners and V. Libron is one of the stable’s go-to riders, so this half-sister to multiple New York-bred stakes winner Temper Mint Patty looks extremely live at 6-1 on the morning line. No No Nina, bred to most effective on grass (More Than Ready), missed her chance on the lawn when her debut race was transferred to the main track last month. The C. Clement-trained filly received some backing (3-1), but after flashing a bit of early speed she steadily retreated and wound up a distance fourth. With T. Gafflione riding her back, we’ll give her another chance for a barn that has solid stats with second-time starters. Gotta Go Mo probably can’t beat a real good filly but it apparently it takes a decent sort to beat her. Still a maiden after five starts but in the frame in her last pair over this course and distance, the daughter of Uncle Mo must leave well from her rail post and is likely to have a big say in the matter if she does. She’s not yet achieved a speed figure equal to or better than par for this level, so improvement may be needed, but experience is in her corner.

RACE 7: Post 4:10 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Subsidiary; 6-Sky Chaser

Forecast: Sky Chaser has been chasing tougher without much success lately, but this drop into the $20,000 claiming ranks could return her to winning form. Successful twice over the local main track, she’s reunited with “win rider” M. A. Vasquez after a brief freshening and can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position. Subsidiary, in her second off a layoff for M. Casse (very strong stats with this angle), missed as the favorite when fading late to wind up a distant second in a $25,000 sprint last month. She’s switches to T. Gaffalione and should produce a forward move but based on pure numbers we have to prefer Sky Chaser on top while including both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 8: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 6-Voodoo Zip

Forecast: Voodoo Zip, in the frame in all three of his career starts with rising speed figures in each outing, appears ready to graduate in this maiden special weight turf miler for 3-year-olds. Drawing a better post today after leaving from the far outside when nosed out in his most recent start, the D. Gargan-trained colt has a good stalking style and should have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. T. Gaffalione stays aboard and knows him well, so let’s make the son of City Zip a win play and rolling exotic at or near his morning line of 5/2.

RACE 9: Post 5:12 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 1-Rhythmia; 6-Proven Strategies; 9-Roman Empire

Forecast: This first-level state-bred allowance middle distance turf affair came up stronger than par, with at least three legitimate contenders. Proven Strategies just broke his maiden in sharp fashion with a good pace-stalking trip, and with continued improvement the son of Sky Mesa may be capable of taking this class hike in stride. His speed figures are rising with each outing and another forward move is likely to today. Rhythmia remains protected by S. Joseph, Jr., who took this gelding for $20,000 two runs back and clearly still likes this hard-hitting son of Majestic Warrior, who will be making his first start since mid-January. Very competitive at this level based on speed figures, he lands the good rail and can be expected to employ gate-to-wire tactics. Roman Empire, the most dangerous true closer in the field, will have his chances promoted if he gets legitimate fractions to chase. The son of Empire Maker crushed a soft Florida-bred maiden field on dirt last time out after flashing ability routing on grass when third in his debut, so if he continues to progress, the T. Pletcher-trained colt could be heard from in the final furlong.

RACE 10: Post 4:17 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Up in Smoke; 7-Midtown Rose

Forecast: Up in Smoke is a perfect two-for-two in her young career, both wins accomplished with complete authority against state-bred competition. In her most recent start, she broke well and was close up in the opening furlong, drifted back to last while appearing to be completely beaten at the quarter pole, then suddenly took hold wide and roared by her rivals to win as tons best. We’ll find out what she’s made of today in open company but one thing’s for sure, she can’t pull that same stunt against this group and get away with. On pure speed figures she’s a fit, but certainly not a standout. Midtown Rose lands the cozy outside post and should draft into an ideal pace-stalking trip in a field without an abundance of early zip. Second while well-clear of the rest in a similar spot last month, the S. Joseph, Jr.-trained filly earned a monster speed figure three runs back when graduating over this track and distance but then didn’t come close to that number in her two subsequent outings. She’s the 9/5 morning line favorite and based on the projected pace flow probably deserves to be.

RACE 11: Post 4:49 ET. Grade:
Use: 5-Catnip Kitten; 7-Got the Gist; 8-Aguas Coloradas; 10-Chiclet’s Dream

Forecast: The finale is a grass gab bag for low-level claiming fillies and mares. Use as many as your budget allows. Catnip Kitten is winless in eight starts over the local lawn but she ran very well at this level when second last time out and switches to J. Rosario. With good racing luck she seems capable of getting up in time. Got the Gist, away since the summer when she was racing at Suffolk Downs, returns for the high percentage G. Baxter barn (solid with comebackers) and lands L. Saez. She’s won fresh in the past, seems to be training well, and is dangerous off the bench. Aguas Coloradas is a Tampa Bay shipper with rising numbers and a previous win over this course. The daughter of Kitten’s Joy is lightly raced with further improvement possible and certainly worth including at 8-1 on the morning line. Chiclet’s Dream is a first-off-the-claim play leaving the C. Brown barn for a low percentage outfit and must leave from the 10-hole going a mile. She’s coming off a win but didn’t beat much and won’t offer any value at 3-1 on the morning line, so you can use as a back-up or a saver but nothing more than that.