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Wednesday, April 22: Tampa Bay Downs Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

April 22, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-The Khan; 3-Bog Rig

Forecast: The new week begins with a restricted (nw-3) $8,000 main track middle distance event that appears to be a proper spot for The Khan, listed as the 5/2 morning line favorite. A distant second (though well clear of the rest) vs. similar over this track and distance earlier this month, the G. Bennett-trained gelding is a one-paced grinding type but should be able to settle in mid-pack and have his chance from the quarter pole home. S. Camacho knows him well and stays aboard. Big Rig, away since mid-October, has primarily been a turf or all-weather specialist in his career but on pure numbers he’s a solid fit with this group, so if can handle the main track he’ll be dangerous. The son of Big Brown projects as a second flight stalker and for a strong trainer-jockey combo and could fire a big shot fresh. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with a slight preference on top to The Khan.

RACE 2: Post 1:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-My Masterpiece; 7-Pioneerof New York

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and switched to the main track. Treat it with caution. Pioneerof New York looks pretty solid in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming router for fillies and mares if she can transfer her turf/all-weather form to dirt. A clever winner with a pace-pressing journey over this course vs. slightly softer foes, the M. Casse-trained filly should enjoy a similar trip from just off the pace and then kick home when it counts. She’s solid in the speed figure department, retains A. Gallardo, and seems capable of putting good ones back to back. My Masterpiece is racing in good form but is questionable on dirt, though her pedigree suggests she should handle it. A close third as the 3-1 favorite in a similar affair last month, the daughter of Midnight Lute is long overdue for a win, switches to S. Camacho, and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Pioneerof New York on top.

RACE 3: Post 1:30 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Lil Big Quick; 4-Super Twenty Five

Forecast: Super Twenty Five drops to her lowest level ever and appears to have found the right spot to regain her best form. All four of her wins have come over the local main track, and after exiting a much tougher, productive race, she’ll certainly appreciate this easier assignment. Regular pilot A. Gallardo fits her like a glove and should have the daughter of Super Saver on or near the lead throughout. Lil B Quick improved a ton in her first off the claim for T. Padilla, beating a $6,250 field by more than five widen lengths while earning a strong speed figure, one that if repeated here may be good enough to produce a repeat score. The daughter of Graeme Hall doesn’t need the lead to win but is probably most effective when pressing the issue throughout. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Super Twenty Five.

RACE 4: Post 2:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-Gesture; 9-Foxglove

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be run on the main track. Gesture, purchased at auction a little more than a year ago for $240,000, clearly is being culled from the stable in just her third career start, a maiden $32,000 router for 3-year-old fillies. However, the daughter of Tapiture has rising speed figures, a recent better-than-looked effort over the course, and a positive jockey change to the barn’s “go-to” rider D. Centeno, so there should be plenty of value to be found at or near her morning line of 5/2. She’ll be our main push in the rolling exotics, but we’ll also toss in Foxglove, a recent $30,000 claim by M. Stidham, who has superb stats (29% with a flat-bet profit) with this angle. The Fair Grounds invader has produced a forward move according to her speed figures in each of her four career outings and though beaten as the favorite in her last pair ran reasonably well when finishing second in both starts. The daughter of Oxbow appears most effective from off the pace, so it will be interesting to see if a change to patient tactics is employed. The switch to dirt shouldn’t be an issue.

RACE 5: Post 2:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Top Seed; 4-Highland Park Hero; 6-Legacy Azteca

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive first-level allowance optional claimer for older horses at six and one-half furlongs. Gulfstream Park shipper Top Seed, an impressive debut winner with as strong speed figure but then very disappointing when far back vs. non-winners of two last month, tries softer pickings today and the son of Orb can get back on the proper track with a repeat of his maiden score. The barn’s local favorite rider, A. Gallardo, takes the call, and two nice easy breezes at Payson Park indicate the 4-year-old colt is spot on. Legacy Azteca, second off the claim for excellent connections, is an old pro with a winning spirit and the proper style for this extended sprint trip. A three time winner (from just six starts) over the Tampa Bay Downs main track, the son of High Cotton likes to settle early and blast home and with good racing luck and a reasonable pace he’ll every chance to tag the speed in the final stages. Highland Park Hero, freshened since August, returns for a clever outfit showing a modest work tab, but if he’s ready the Ohio shipper has a legitimate look at a decent price. The son of Forestry should be part of the pace throughout and could stick around for at least a piece of it.

RACE 6: Post 3:00 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Durven; 7-Antalya

Forecast: After several uninspiring runs, Antalya drops to her lowest level while searching for a field that can lead to a form reversal. Perhaps this is where she belongs. The daughter of Skipshot shows recent speed figures that fit nicely in this league and always has been fairly consistent, with in-the-money finishes in 14 of 29 career starts. She likes to settle early and produce a late kick and under these conditions should have no excuses. Durven lands the good rail and projects to fall into an ideal, ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. Away since November, she returns waiver protected in this $10,000 claiming turf miler for a barn that is quite capable with comebackers. We’ll give the edge on top to Antalya but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 7: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Sense of Justice; 7-Blame the Cake

Forecast: Blame the Cake flashed ability in a promising debut at Saratoga last July, finishing an excellent second (while five lengths clear of the rest) to subsequent New York-bred stakes winner Bank on Shea while earning a speed figures that would bury this field. Off the strength of that effort, he was 9/5 in a similar spot next time out but wound up a distant fourth and was turned out to due to what we’ll assume was an issue that surfaced in the race. He’s gotten fit with a series of recent workouts at Lambholm South Training Center in the northern part of the state for the Ian Wilkes barn, which has excellent stats with layoff runners. The son of Blame should be hard to beat. With a solid race over the track in his first start since his debut at Parx last summer, Sense of Justice can be expected to move forward in this maiden special weight seven furlong sprint and is worth including on your ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver. The son of Street Sense was bumped and bounced around at the start in his most recent race, then displayed decent speed to move with range before staying on with some interest through the lane. The M. Stidham-trained colt might be quick enough to make the running and given that kind of trip could take this field a long way.

RACE 8: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 8-Summer Assault

Forecast: Summer Assault is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite in this first-level allowance turf sprint for 3-year-olds and based on pure form probably should go lower. The son of Summer Front broke his maiden at first asking over this course and distance while displaying a powerful late kick, and then ran well in two subsequent two-turn outings, most recently when a close third in the listed Columbia S. over a mile on grass. Back sprinting where we suspect he’s most effective, the sophomore gelding should be able to settle early and then tag the leaders in the final furlong. He’s a logical rolling exotic single to complete the day.