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Sunday, June 14: Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

June 14, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Dupioni; 5-Zee Drop

Forecast: This turf miler for second-level allowance fillies and mares projects to have a faster than par pace – even for a small field – and we expect the race flow to favor the two proven closers in the field. Zee Drop has been away since winning an entry-level allowance turf miler at Del Mar last summer but the work tab at Los Alamitos should have her fit and ready for the strong jockey/trainer combo of A. Cedillo and P. D’Amato. Having won her debut, she’s proven she can win fresh, and we’re expecting the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid – a fit on figures and bred to improve with maturity – to settle off the pace and then produce a winning late kick. Dupioni has two strong efforts over the local lawn, though both were race-shape aided (and this one might be, as well). The Irish-bred filly is up a notch in class but seems to be a better type now than she was overseas. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while preferring Zee Drop on top.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Miss Baylee; 5-My Girl Red

Forecast: Miss Baylee and My Girl Red both have done some good work in the a.m. and we’re expecting the winner of this baby race to be one or the other. Miss Baylee, another one of those precocious juveniles from the L. Mendez barn, is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite and showed enough early speed in a recent three furlong gate drill to expect she’ll be part of the pace throughout. My Girl Red also displayed some quality in a :47 1/5 gate drill last month and seems extremely live with F. Prat taking the all. She’s from the first crop of B.C. Juvenile winner Texas Red and looks cranked up and ready to go. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 4-Summer Fire

Forecast: Summer Fire surfaces in a $50,000 claimer restricted to 3-year-olds – his first start for a tag - and should greatly appreciate the class relief. The R. B. Hess, Jr.-trained colt is a strong fit on speed figures and projects to enjoy a good second-flight trip and then have his chance to seal the deal from the quarter pole home. At 5/2 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 4: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Crystal Ball; 5-Via Angelica

Forecast: This middle distance maiden affair for fillies and mares should boil down to the two second-time starting B. Baffert-trained entrants. Crystal Ball, a respectable third in her debut while clearly needing the race, switches to A. Cedillo, and with three recent solid workouts the daughter of Malibu Moon should be much fitter and tougher today. We’re expecting her to be on or near the lead throughout. Via Angelica, a closing third in an abbreviated sprint first time out last month, is another that seems certain to step forward with M.. Smith staying aboard. She’s the 9/5 favorite and probably deserves to be, though we’re a tad more intrigued by Crystal Ball and will put her slightly on top. Both should be included in your rolling exotics.

RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sole Amino; 5-Veteran; 7-Hollywoodhellraisr; 9-Absolute Unit

Forecast: We’ll spread this maiden turf sprint, going four-deep in our rolling exotics in a race that appears deep in possibilities. Solo Animo ran a winning race in defeat, finishing third after a horrendous start and traffic trouble at the head of the lane. That he was beaten just over a length for it all was rather amazing; however, it may not have been much of a race. We’ll find out what the son of Carpe Diem is made of today. Veteran had speed before fading in his only start last summer in a race that was won by eventual juvenile champion Storm the Court. He returns for the always-dangerous R. Mandella/M. Smith team and has trained very well for his comeback. It’ll be interesting to see if he’s let roll from the gate or taken back and allowed to make one run, as he’s been taught to do in recent drills. Hollywoodhellraisr has displayed some power in his training track drills for P. D’Amato and appears to be a gelding with some talent. We’re expecting the son of Race Day to be doing his best work from off the pace. We’ll also toss in Absolute Unit, a route-to-sprint play with good form over this course and distance and back with F. Prat, who knows him well. He’s another that may make some noise late.

RACE 6: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B
Use: 4-Justinian; 6-McKale

Forecast: Once again it appears the B. Baffert barn has two major bullets to fire. We’ll try to get by in rolling exotic play with just those two. McKale returns to the conditioned allowance ranks after a solid third place effort in the San Carlos S.-G2 and with solid, consistent speed figures and a healthy work tab since raced the son of Congrats should fire his best shot. He’s most effective on or near the lead and should be comfortably placed in a race that projects to have a moderate opening quarter. Justinian switches to F. Prat, and maybe the jockey change will help bring out his best. Trouble-prone most of his career – he has a devil of a time leaving the gate – the talented son of Justin Phillip broke his maiden sprinting over this main track so the turn back in trip is warranted. He’s worked very impressively of late, but then again, he always does.

RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Invincibella; 3-Smilling Rose; 5-Sabinos Pride

Forecast: Here’s a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claimer for fillies and mares over nine furlongs that looks inscrutable, even with just six runners. Five of the six entered exit the same race and none of them hit the board. Sabinos Pride is listed as the 2-1 morning line and can win, but at that price she certainly doesn’t have to. The D. Hofmans-trained was fourth at 42-1 in that common race at a mile; she may run better at this trip but who really knows? Smiling Rose was a close fifth in that same race in her first outing since September, has trained well since, and should produce enough of a forward move to be a threat. Invincibella lands the good rail, seems likely to enjoy a ground-saving trip, and given the patient ride we suspect she requires could be the most dangerous of the closers. We’ll sink or swim with just these three; if you feel the need to buy the race, do it.

RACE 8: Post 4:42 PT. Grade: C
Use: 8-Street Image; 9-Show Business

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden claimers sprint six and one-half furlongs, with the class dropping Show Business assured of getting plenty of play due to the connections (R. Mandella/F. Prat). At this level the son of Distorted Humor simply should win; the class drop is warranted and Godolphin doesn’t need or want these kinds of horses, anyway. He’s 7/2 on the morning line but seems certain to go lower. Street Image, a reasonable runner-up in his comeback last month at this level, is the quickest in the field and will take them as far as he can, which in the past hasn’t been much farther than the furlong pole. We’ll see if he can stick better today. In a race that should otherwise be left alone, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 9: Post 5:12 PT. Grade: A-
Single: 4-Dogtag

Forecast: Dogtag was highly impressive beating second-level allowance foes at a mile last month over the local lawn and we strongly suspect she’ll be more than capable of handling today’s class hike and added distance. The daughter of War Front appeared especially sharp in a recent workout to indicate she’s continuing to improve, and in a race that shouldn’t have much pace F. Prat can put her just about anywhere he wants. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a strong straight play and rolling exotic single.