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Friday, June 19: Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

June 19, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Day Makers:

Belmont Park – 9th race. Post time 5:36 ET.

4 – Guildsman (7/2)

Been the victim of two troubled trips to kick off his U.S. campaign but with a clean break and clear sailing today this talented gelding should be capable of producing a winning late kick. Lost all chance at the start in his North American debut when he broke poorly when winding up third in listed stakes at Gulfstream Park in the March, and then had a nightmarish journey (steadied repeatedly in traffic and then took hold too late) in a Churchill Downs overnight turf dash last month. Was good enough as a 2-year to hit the board in two group stakes races (including a close third of 17 in the Coventry S.-G23 at Royal Ascot), so he certainly won’t be outclassed in this spot. We also like the switch to the aggressive L. Saez, so at 7/2 on the morning he’ll offer value both in the win pool and in rolling exotic play.

Today’s Workout AnalysisView PDF File

RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Eastern Ocean; 5-Tapitution; 6-Lane Way

Forecast: The Friday opener is a challenging maiden turf miler with several legitimate possibilities. We’ll hope to get by using just three in our rolling exotics. Lane Way has much going for him and is strictly the one to beat. Third in all four of lifetime starts but with strong speed figures, the blinkers off angle that we like, and with the powerful R. Mandella/F. Prat team in his corner, the son of Into Mischief is unproven on grass but there’s no reason he won’t like it, or at least, handle it. Exiting a series of powerful races won by the likes of Nadal, Charlatan, Shooter’s Shoot and most recently Ka’nah, the $550,000 OBS auction purchase may not be able to defeat a really good colt, but there may not be one in here. Eastern Ocean took a step forward with a solid runner-up in a similar affair over this course and distance last month and with just three career outings probably has room for improvement that most of the others don’t. The son of Stormy Atlantic lands a favorable inside draw and should be close up throughout and have every chance. The newcomer Tapitution is worth including on a least a ticket or two. The B. Baffert-trained colt has done some promising work in the morning for a barn that hits with a remarkable 29% with debut runners, and this son of Constitution, a $350,000 OBS March purchase last year, has trained like a colt that will appreciate being held up early and allowed to run late, the kind of ride he’s likely to receive from M. Smith.

RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Real Good Deal; 6-Sindy’s Revenge

Forecast: Phoenix invader Sindy’s Revenge, away since February, has been training locally for at least two months and should be plenty fit and ready to show her best stuff in this six-runner restricted (nw-2) $12,500 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. She removes blinkers for new trainer B. Heap, lands the cozy outside draw, and earned a speed figure in her debut two runs back that is par for this level. With the proper stalking style for this extended sprint trip, the daughter of Slew’s Tiznow should have every chance to regain her winning form. Real Good Deal is slower on numbers than Sindy’s Revenge but ran well at this level two runs back when missing by a neck, and not much more will be needed to make her the one to fear most. She projects to settle in the second flight just off the speed and then have dead aim from the quarter pole home. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Sindy’s Revenge.

RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Still in the Game; 9-Tiberius Mercurius

Forecast: Tiberius Mercurius is poorly drawn outside in this maiden turf miler for older horses but if he can drop over, get some cover, and negotiate a decent trip, the New York invader should be able to produce a winning late kick. His East Coast numbers are strong and his local work tab for new trainer J. Sadler contains several excellent drills that indicate he’s fit, ready, and probably improved. With excellent turf jockey U. Rispoli (a very live rider for this outfit) taking the call, we’re expecting this year-old colt to be a long in time. Still in the Game should be the controlling speed from his inside draw, and when the rails are up (they are today at 20 ft.) this type of trip gets strongly promoted from what we call the “jet stream effect”. If not pressured early, the son of Uncaptured should take this field a very long way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, with the main push going to Tiberius Mercurus.

RACE 4: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 6-What’s Up Surfer; 7-Touchdown Brown

Forecast: Touchdown Brown sports a :47 flat gate work (fastest of 28) over the local main track that certainly catches the eye and his previous (slower) works were visually impressive just as well. This son of Cairo Prince looks fit, ready, and good enough to handle juvenile abbreviated sprint assignment, thought at 9/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering a huge amount of wagering value. What’s Up Surfer is another one of those San Luis Rey Downs-based shippers for the F. Prat/P. Miller team, and with a bullet half mile gate drill (:47.4h, fastest of 10) last week showing on his resume the son of Surf Coat is certain to get plenty of play. We’ll include him on a ticket or two, but the main push in our rolling exotics goes to Touchdown Brown.

RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Fengari; 3-Sly; 5-Most Sandisfactory

Forecast: This maiden $40,000 grass miler for older horses appears to have three main players with Fengari the logical top pick after finishing a strong runner-up vs. slightly tougher over this course and distance last month. Draw nicely inside that will guarantee an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip, the J. Sadler-trained gelding shows an easy training track drill last week to tick him over and in what will be his third start off the layoff the son of Artie Schiller should be set for a career top effort. The first-time routing Most Sandisfactory is intriguing. Both of his prior grass outings in Kentucky were quite solid, though he’ll have to improve a bunch in the speed figure department. The P. Miller-trained gelding, second in a dirt sprint in his local bow last month, has every right to step forward with the stretch out in trip and the return to turf, and if he wants to be he’ll probably inherit the role as the controlling speed. Sly, second off a layoff for R. Mandella (superior 23% with this angle) and exiting a productive dash, should put that tune up to good use at this mile trip and has a Beyer speed figure over this course last year that would probably beat this field. The Orb gelding has been a disappointment so far in his five race career but continues to train well and should be able to at least get a piece of it.

RACE 6: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 6-With Due Cause

Forecast: With Due Cause finished a promising third with a less-than-ideal trip (a slightly slow start and a very wide trip throughout) in a productive affair and seems very likely to produce a significant forward move in this maiden special weight Cal-bred sprint in his second start off a layoff and just third outing overall. The son of Creative Cause earned a decent speed figure in that race, retains F. Prat, and shows two solid five furlong drills at Los Alamitos in the interim to keep him on edge. We’re anticipating a nice stalking trip from his cozy outside draw in a race in which the speed types are suspect, so at 4-1 on the morning line we’ll make him a straight play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 7: Post 4:12 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Smiling Annie; 7-Harper’s Gallop; 10-Loud Loud Music

Forecast: Here’s a treacherous turf sprint for entry-level allowance fillies and mares that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Loud Loud Music was a visually pleasing winner of a maiden turf sprint at Golden Gate Fields last month, doing so with a speed figure that should make her competitive in tougher affair. We’re not crazy about the extreme outside post but the daughter of Tizbud should be quick enough to get over a secure a comfortable pace-stalking position. Harper’s Gallop, fresh from a game win in a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming mile turf affair, has been routing most of her career but could very well enjoy this turn back to a sprint. She earned a career top speed figure in her last race and can score right back with a similar effort despite this raise into the first-level allowance condition. She projects to be on the lead or in a stalking position outside; in either case the J. Carava-trained filly should have every chance. Smiling Annie is wheeled back in six days after winning a four-runner dash over this course and distance with an easy trip as the controlling speed. She’ll have to work a little harder today but in her present form must be given a big chance right back, especially if she’s quick enough to secure another front-running trip.

RACE 8: Post 4:42 PT. Grade: C
Use: 3-Malakai Moxie; 4-Grazed My Biscuits; 6-Hot Socks

Forecast: Anything goes in this maiden $50,000 claiming state-bred sprint that drew six runners. Malakai Moxie has F. Prat and numbers that can win, so he’s the default top choice. An eight-race maiden without a definitive style (not a speed horse, not a closer), the P. D’Amato-trained colt shows up in a seller for the first time and should greatly appreciate the class drop. Hot Socks has a right to be fitter and sharper today in his second off a layoff following an okay runner-up effort in a similar affair last month. He’ll need a boost in the speed figure department but is assured a soft pace-stalking trip outside, so we’re expecting a forward move. Grazed My Biscuits is a first-timer from the P. Miller barn with a recent good gate drill (5f, 1:00.1hg) that catches the eye. How good does he have to be? Let’s try to survive and advance using just these three in race that is probably best left alone.

RACE 9: Post 5:12 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Cheerful Charm; 3-On Mars; 4-Rockie Causeway

Forecast>: The finale is a maiden turf miler for state-bred fillies and mares with a logical contender (On Mars) and two sneaky first-time starters (Cheerful Charm, Rockie Causeway) that warrant closer inspection. On Mars, a recent runner-up over this course and distance vs. similar while earning a career top speed figure, may not have to improve to earn her diploma against this group. Most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, the daughter of Vronsky retains M. Smith, and with good racing luck and any kind of help up front she should be hard to contain in the final furlong. Cheerful Charm has looked okay-to-decent in her morning preps for D. Blacker and absolutely should fit well in this spot. Certainly bred to run long on the lawn (Boisterous), she debuts with the barn’s go-to rider (U. Rispoli) from a favorable inside draw and will likely settle early and take hold late. The stable hardly ever wins with a first-timer but this sophomore filly may prove to be the exception to the rule. Rockie Causeway, by Giant’s Causeway from multiple stakes winner Private World, has been preparing at San Luis Rey Downs for a few months and shows no less than three bullet workouts since early May to indicate ability. With F. Prat taking the call, the R. Baltas-trained filly is simply a “must use.”