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Weekly Bankroll Builder: July 17 Stronach 5 Play

by Brian Nadeau

July 16, 2020

Back to battle with another Laurel Park-Gulfstream Park Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update, as well as on Twitter. ***

Leg 1: Laurel Park R6 (3:23 ET) – 3upfm 25k MCL at 1-mile (turf)

I’m a sucker for the MSW droppers in spots like these and that’s what you get with #2 WITTY BANTER (3-1), who hasn’t done a lot of running in two starts but takes the big plunge, improved last time, and draws much better too. I’ll also used #4 LADY FOX (9-2), who is another who drew a lot better than last time, when she got back to the turf, and fits nicely on figures.

Pk5 A horses: 2,4 (listed in order of preference)

Both #5 MELISANDE (12-1) and #11 MAYAN QUEEN (8-1) ran well when 3rd and 2nd against each other last time, and that was their first turf route too, so they can improve, though they’ll need to to get to the top pair. I’ll also use #8 SEA STORY (7-2), who would be an underlay at this ML price since she’s trying two turns, but she has been closing going shorter, and is bred for this on the bottom.

Pk5 B horses: 5,11,8

*** Please note, to keep the cost of the backup ticket down, I’ll be singling #8 Just Kidding (7-2) in Leg 4. ***

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (3:40 ET) – 3upfm Fl-bred AOC (12k/N1X) at 5 furlongs (turf)

If #3 HEIR BALL (5-2) runs her race she’s going to win, it’s as simple as that, and there’s no reason to think she won’t, since she’s 6-2-3-1 this year and has really taken off in her last three, so she’s the single in a race lacking a lot of serious contenders.

Pk5 A horses: 3

If ‘Ball loses I would think it’s because she gets dueled into the ground, as there is some other pace signed on, and that would make #8 WAR STAR (9-2) a player late, especially since she was a close 3rd to her last time, albeit a non-threatening one, and she runs the risk of bouncing off such a big run too.

Pk5 B horses: 8

*** Please note, to keep the cost of the backup ticket down, I’ll be singling #8 Just Kidding (7-2) in Leg 4. ***

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 3: Laurel Park R7 (3:59 ET) – 3up 5k claimer at 6 furlongs

In a race with little to no speed, I’ll take a stab with #7 THE FORTY FACTOR (9-2), who was dreadful last time, but has plenty of solid back form to lean on, and looks like a Lone F with Perez (19% on the year) getting aboard, which is an encouraging sign after such a dud. A more likely winner is #3 SMOKIN HOT FACTOR (5-2) on the drop and turf-to-dirt move for Magee, and that 2nd here at the level two-back probably wins this. Let’s also use #6 IWISHIWASPECIAL (8-1), who cuts back to one-turn after a middle-move 3rd a week ago, and it’s worth noting Corrales has done the short rest thing 22 times, at a very solid 14% strike rate, and #9 I IDOLIZE YOU (6-1), who goes off the claim for Nixon, a very underrated trainer, enters fresh, and has tactical speed from an outside attack post too.

Pk5 A horses: 7,3,6,9

I don’t have any major knocks on either #2 EKATI WILDCAT (9-2) or #1 BELMONT RIDE (7-2), but combined they’ve lost 9-of-10 and the former hasn’t won yet for Chris Englehart, while the latter was a flat 4th behind ‘Smokin last time and is a big underlay at this ML.

Pk5 B horses: 2,1

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:13 ET) – 4up 8k claimer at 1-mile

With a possible speed duel between #3 Two Step Slew (8-1) and #4 Dizzy Gillespie (4-1) shaping up, I’ll be a bit bold and toss them both and key on stalkers #8 JUST KIDDING (7-2), who goes off the claim for David, a wild 45% angle from 22 tries, and the veteran #10 DIAMOND BATCHELOR (3-1), who hasn’t been out in almost 14 months and plunges in class, but Joseph is 39% off the claim from a 105-horse sample, and this guy will trip out, and basically every race he’s ever run wins this, so he has to still be respected, warning signals and all.

Pk5 A horses: 8,10

A drop in class and return to the dirt might shake up #11 COWBOY CULTURE (10-1), who also fits the race flow, and the dirt run two-back against better makes him a player here.

Pk5 B horses: 11

Potential B add-ins: #4 Dizzy Gillespie (4-1), Two Step Slew (8-1), #6 Town Policy (15-1)

Leg 5: Laurel Park R10 (4:33 ET) – 3up Md-bred N1X 5 1/2 furlongs (turf)

The finale is just impossible, and it’s tough to lean on anyone too heavily, but I have room for coverage so I’ll take it with #9 GODLOVESASINNER (10-1), #3 MATTA (4-1), #8 ABUELO PAPS (6-1), and #14 WHISKEY AND YOU (6-1), who all have a rating gear in a race with some speed, and the first two have some proven turf form, while the latter pair have been running well on the main track and seem t be on the improve as well.

Pk5 A horses: 9,3,8,14

The posts won’t help either #1 DAYSTRIKE (8-1) or #2 JOSEPH (6-1), but both fit on paper, with the former coming in off a sharp 3rd against open claimers and the latter the one to fear in the lane in his seasonal debut if it falls apart. I’ll also use #6 FIYA (12-1), who freaked in his turf bow against tons lesser last time to break his maiden, but just may have found his calling, and drew well while likely trying to press and clear off the far turn.

Pk5 B horses: 1,2,6

Potential B add-ins: #13 Carey Times (12-1)

The Tickets:

Main Ticket: 2,4 with 3 with 7,3,6,9 with 8,10 with 9,3,8,14 = $64
Leg 1 B Backup: 5,11,8 with 3 with 7,3,6,9 with 8 with 9,3,8,14 = $48
Leg 2 B Backup: 2,4 with 8 with 7,3,6,9 with 8 with 9,3,8,14 = $32
Leg 3 B Backup: 2,4 with 3 with 2,1 with 8,10 with 9,3,8,14 = $32
Leg 4 B Backup: 2,4 with 3 with 7,3,6,9 with 11 with 9,3,8,14 = $32
Leg 5 B Backup: 2,4 with 3 with 7,3,6,9 with 8,10 with 1,2,6 = $48