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Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

July 19, 2020

As usual the Sunday night card at Hawthorne Racecourse features a 0.50 Late Pick 4 with a $25,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence has a 15% takeout, the pools have been well above the guarantee, and it will be my focus.

The drivers with the hottest hands on Saturday were Casey Leonard and Todd Warren, both had three wins. Mike Brink, Steve Searle and Terry Leonard led the trainers, each had three trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

1-Final Prize (2-1)-3-year-old had a big try from the 10-hole in last and off that effort he has been made the program chalk. Should be a player, this looks like an easy spot.
3-Captain Classic (6-1)-Hoosier invader has been facing better and has been stuck with the 9 or 10 post in all three starts. Should be in the hunt if he takes to the track.
6-Rock Jagger (12-1)-Was stuck with the 9-hole in last on a sloppy track and had a nice effort to finish 2nd. Gets a positive driver change in Todd Warren and he has been hot. Best to not overlook camera shy price shot.
8-Master Ken (3-1)-Team Leonard trainee comes off an easy win. This won't be as easy but can beat these if upswing continues.

Race 11

3-Johnnys Gal June (9-1)-Husted steers tonight and this filly took the long way around last week but didn't quit. That was her best effort in 7 starts. Could get sucked around from this post and might surprise at a nice price.
5-Sporty Miss Dune (6/5)-Steps-up after picking up a win off a nice trip. Doesn't offer any value at 6/5 and will include but look to beat.
8-Scorecard Nitelife (20-1)-1st time starter is Franco's choice over #3. Qualified on 7/4 and paced the back half in 57.1. Will likely race from the rear of the pack and could pick off a few down the lane. This is another who should be a price.
10-Yummy Candy (5-1)-Had a big effort with Bates in the bike and now Wilfong steers. Seemed to wake-up when dropped to this level and will use versus a suspect group.

Race 12

4-Shedaisy Ten (3-1)-Driver change to Todd Warren and drops to the lowest level in a while. 7-time winner in 2019 has won 3 of 10 in Stickney and has no excuse tonight.
6-The Second Star (8-1)-Has been stuck outside versus better and now drops in 3rd local start. Has been racing from the back and did go the 2nd half in .56. Fits better here and looking for an aggressive try.
7-My Kind Of Dance (7/2)-Only 3 for the last 46 but last start was better and now drops. This will be the 3rd start off a sick scratch and all systems could be "go" tonight.
10-Admit One (10-1)-Will take a swing with Oosting from the 10-hole instead of Franco from the rail. Oosting has driven this mare off cover before. My guess is the pace will be quick enough she can grind and roll by at a price.

Race 13

3-Brooke's Ocean (4/5)-Morning line choice is 3-3 and this crew isn't any better than those the filly beat on 7/4 in 152.4 on the engine from the 9-hole. Leonard steers and barring some bad luck it looks like another picture is set for tonight.

My Ticket

Race 10) 1,3,6,8

Race 11) 3,5,8,10

Race 12) 4,6,7,10

Race 13) 3

Total Ticket Cost) $32 for $0.50

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