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Friday, July 24: Del Mar/Saratoga Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

July 24, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

Third Race – Post Time: 3:00 PT
3 – Border Town (2-1)

Broke slowly, lost position and couldn’t make any impact into an unfavorable race-shape when a non-threatening sixth in the American S.-G2 at Santa Anita last time out but should regain his winning form today with this drop in class and the stretch-out in trip. With Sadler’s Wells on the bottom side of his pedigree the son of War Front should have no difficulty handling this mini-marathon trip, so with F. Prat staying aboard the R. Mandella-trained colt looks solid at or near his morning line of 2-1.

Fifth Race – Post Time: 4:00 PT
9-Bulletproof One (9/2)

Winless is three tries on grass but looked superb in a quick blowout around dogs over the local lawn five days ago (3f, :34.4h) and catches field without her kind of speed in this five furlong dash for second-level allowance fillies and mares. The P. Miller-trained filly is reunited with “win rider” R. Gonzalez and from her outside draw should be capable of popping to the lead and taking her rivals gate to wire. At 9/2 on the morning like she’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

Today’s Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: C
Use: 4-Hands Up;5-Assume

Forecast: Originally a $300,000 yearling purchase and clearly being culled from the stable, Assume shows up in a modest maiden $20,000 claimer after flashing speed but fading in three outings at Gulfstream Park vs. maiden special weight company. The daughter of Candy Ride certainly has numbers that can win but at 4/5 on the morning line won’t be offering any wagering value. Hands Up is another plummeting in class. Runner-up in a maiden $75,000 affair two runs back at Churchill Downs, the daughter of Distorted Humor shortens to six furlongs and projects to be on or near a modest early pace. We’re expecting the winner to be one of these two and both can be used in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.

RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Kinky Sox; 2-Overtime Olivia

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this restricted (nw-3) $14,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares. Kinky Sox was more than five lengths clear of the rest when a good runner-up in a similar affair at Belmont Park earlier this month and a repeat of that race today should be more than good enough. The lightly-raced 6-year-old mare will need to avoid trouble from the rail – she’s always sluggish early and could get smothered in traffic – but with clear sailing the daughter of Girolamo looks capable of producing the last run. Overtime Olivia returns to the main track and clearly is the controlling speed. Nosed out in the final strides in this type of race two runs back, the veteran daughter of Rule will take them as far as she can.

RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Peaceful; 6-Voting Agreement

Forecast: Peaceful was almost five lengths clear of the rest when cutting out the fractions and then being worn down late in a fast turf sprint at Belmont Park last month. She shortens up a half-furlong today and can be effective on the front end or from a second flight, stalking position. We know she likes this course – she broke her maiden here last year – and with a nice, easy breeze at Fair Hill last week to tick her over the daughter of Declaration of War should be tough to beat in this first-level allowance grass dash for fillies and mares. Voting Agreement graduated over this course and distance last year in her 2-year-old debut but then was turned out. She returned a bit rusty when third as the favorite in a similar allowance grass dash at Belmont Park last month and has a right to move forward today for the C. Brown barn (30% with the second-off-a-layoff angle). The daughter of More Than Ready will be doing her best work late. We’ll prefer Peaceful on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 6-Stay Fond; 8-Blunt Force

Forecast: Churchill Downs invader Blunt Force projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip from her cozy outside draw in this extended sprint for $12,500 claiming fillies and mares and can take this slight class hike in stride with a repeat of her nice win last month that produced a career top speed figure. She’s also a two-time winner at this seven furlong trip and sports a healthy work tab since raced. Stay Fond remains above her claim level in her second-off-a-layoff after capturing a waiver-protected $10,000 seller at Belmont Park earlier this month. A winner of eight races from 32 career starts, the veteran Stay Thirsty mare represents the best of the closing types. We’ll give Blunt Force the edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Raffinity; 9-Saborella

Forecast: Samborella brought $500,000 as a yearling and has trained like she’s ready to win right now after breezing five furlongs from the gate over a muddy Saratoga main track last week in :59 flat. The barn is solid with first-timers and this filly, from the first crop of the promising Uncle Mo stallion Outwork, is listed at 2-1 on the morning line and could easily go lower. Another intriguing debut runner, Raffinity, isn’t bred to sprint and could find this five and one-half furlong trip too sharp, but the work tab looks interesting and we wouldn’t be surprised to see her produce a favorable impression, probably from off the pace. While the bulk of the action should go to favorite, this $70,000 yearling by Tonalilst is worth including somewhere on your ticket.

RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Elle M’a Souri; 6-Coilean Bawn; 9-Cap de Creus

Forecast: This mini-marathon first-level allowance turf affair for fillies and mares has three legitimate possibilities, topped by even money favorite Cap de Creus. Certainly she win and we know she’ll handle the trip, but the daughter Tapit is working on a three-race losing streak when sent off as the favorite and in fact is just 1-for-14 during her career with six second-place finishes. We’ll use her, of course, but also include a pair of middle-priced runners that may offer better value. Elle M’a Souri is a lightly-raced French-bred filly fresh from breaking her maiden over nine furlongs on grass with a career-top speed figure at Churchill Downs in late May while giving every indication that she’ll continue to improve as the distances increase. Drawn nicely inside and therefore guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip, she retains regular rider T. Gaffalione and seems better than her morning line of 6-1 gives her credit for. Coilean Bawn finally earned her diploma in her ninth career start last month at Belmont Park, stalking easy splits and then quickening through the lane to be up in time with a speed figure that puts her in the hunt right back. She should very much enjoy this mile and one-three furlong journey, and if that weren’t enough she has the scorching hot jockey/trainer combo of J. Rosario/C. Clement in her corner. She’s easily likeable at or near her morning line of 5-1.

RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 7-Magnolia’s Lady; 8-Snicket

Forecast: Snicket has been a beaten choice in her last pair, both times finishing second, and may be a tad hard to trust in this state-bred maiden turf dash for fillies and mares. However, that bit of concern may be negated by the fact that the daughter of Lemon Drop Kid hails from the C. Clement barn, which seems to be winning with just about everything so far this meeting, and will be ridden by the stable’s main guy, J. Rosario. Magnolia’s Lady is a legitimate contender and the one to fear most. Steadily improving with racing and with a good stalking style that should give her every chance from the quarter pole home, the L. Rice-trained daughter of Freud just finished third in the same race Snicket exits and may have a bit more room to improve.

RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 7-Free Enterprise; 9-Strike That

Forecast: Strike That was no match for Volatile when a distant second at Oaklawn Park in April, but there may be few sprinters in North America who could have done much better. With Volatile on his way to bigger and better things (he’ll be odds-on tomorrow in the Vanderbilt S.-G1) this lightly-raced gelding should be able to regain his winning form in this competitive second-level allowance main track sprint. The R. Diodoro-trained son of Biondetti is drawn comfortably outside and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip, and a repeat of his race-before-last should be good enough. Free Enterprise has run well over this track in the past (second in both outings) and has back speed figures that make him dangerous. He’s been beaten as the choice in his last pair but gets off the rail today and should be prominent throughout. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with strong preference on top to Strike That.

RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: X
Use: 2-Jack and Noah; 8-Turned Aside

Forecast: Jack and Noah and Turned Aside, one-two finishers in the listed Sir Cat S. at Belmont Park last month, hook up again in today’s Quick Call S.-G3 at the slightly shorter five and one-half furlong trip. ‘Noah should be the controlling speed again and will be very hard to catch if he shows up with his “A” game, but at even money on the morning line there’s not much you can do with him. ‘Aside will be running on strongly late but will need all the help he can get up front to reverse the result of their last meeting. You can consider using him as a saver or a back-up on your rolling exotic ticket while strongly preferring Jack and Noah on top.

RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1-Aintitfunkynow

Forecast: Aintitfunkynow drops into a maiden claimer for the first time and this easier assignment should allow the son of Big Brown to earn his diploma. From his favorable rail post in this one mile inner turf track affair he should find himself in a second flight, ground-saving position and have every opportunity to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. We’ll make him a logical rolling exotic single but at 2-1 on the morning line and likely to go lower the M. Maker-trained gelding probably won’t offer much value in the straight pool.