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Sunday, July 26: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

July 26, 2020

The action at Hawthorne Racecourse starts with a $20,000 guaranteed pool for the 0.50 Pick 5. The guarantee came about because of a $5,044 carryover as there were no winning tickets for Saturday's Pick 5. The usual $25,000 guaranteed pool applies to the 0.50 Late Pick 4 and that sequence will be my focus.

The top driver on last night's program was Travis Seekman with three wins. Ronnie Roberts led the conditioners with two trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

2-Velocity Mcsweets (5-1)-Hoosier invader knows how to win and will be in the hunt if she takes to this oval. Oosting should keep the 5-year-old in play and she has won 25% of 72 lifetime starts.
6-Over Speeding (7-1)-This is one of two Petrelli entries and is a threat to snap #7's winning streak. Will need a top effort but has won 10 of 40 at Haw.
7-Lily Grace (3-1)-Has won 4 straight and last was versus Open company, difficult to ignore.
8-Tempus Seelster (4-1)-Here's the best horse in the race but can be beat with a bad trip and that happened on 7/12. While grinding outside a longshot suddenly pulled and stopped which probably cost the race. Best to not overlook here.

Race 11

1-Western Pilot (9-1)-Kept pacing in last qualifier after breaking stride in previous two. Was used off the gate and still went the back half in .58. Should be long odds and maybe breaking issues have been solved.
4-Dirty Judge (6-1)-Brink trainee has shown decent speed in two HoP starts and now ships into Haw. Went the last 1/4 in 27.4 and Oosting may race closer to the top of the stack from this post.
6-El's Disco Johnny (5/2)-Program chalk also raced at HoP in last start and looks like a contender. Leonard steers but doesn't offer any value at the program odds in a race without much form.
7-Rockin The Area (9/2-Bates comes back tonight and last week was bet down to 3/2 but didn't hit the board. Did pace the 2nd half in 58.1 and will look for a big try at a square price in 3rd lifetime start.

Race 12

3-Rushing Reba (5-1)-Has been facing better and hasn't shown much. Drops to a better level as Franco takes the lines. Maybe this mare wakes-up and gets overlooked at the windows.
4-Dali Treasure (7-1)-Drops to the lowest level this meet and has had excuses in all three starts at Haw. Holt barn has won their share and Oosting will be back aboard tonight.
6-Susan Sage (8/5)-Susan won 11 of 20 starts in 2019 and has a strong record in Stickney winning 10 of 25 races. Hasn't looked good in 3 tries this year but best to respect here as this is a much softer spot.
8-Admit (25-1)-Makes 4th start on Lasix and had the 10-hole in two of the previous three races. Seekman has been driving well and if pace is quick this mare will be rolling late at a big price.

Race 13

8-Brooke's Ocean (5/2)-Has won 4 straight, and the trainer was in the bike in last. Bates returns and will look to keep 2020 record perfect. Real Desire filly should be able to make an early move to the lead and put this field away.

My Ticket

Race 10) 2,6,7,8

Race 11) 1,4,6,7

Race 12) 3,4,6,8

Race 13) 8

Total Ticket Cost) $32 for $0.50

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