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Sunday, August 02: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

August 2, 2020

There is a 12-race card scheduled at Hawthorne Racecourse this evening and the 0.50 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Saturday over a track that turned sloppy was Casey Leonard with four wins. The leading conditioner was Frank Petrelli who took two pictures.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

5-Incredible Bombay (9/2)-Was bet down to 4/5 in last and broke at the start to lose all chance. Comes back tonight 4 weeks later and gets a positive driver change in Todd Warren. Morgan barn has been going good, will give another chance.
6-Master Ken (5/2)-Was literally knocked out of last due to an accident and was in position to make some noise. Team Leonard should be set to go and looks like a threat versus this field.

Race 10

3-Blood In Blood Out (2-1)-Another from the Leonard barn who has raced in Stickney three times without a win but has hit the board in each. May not have to pace as fast to beat this bunch so can close the deal and break maiden in 8th try.
6-Yummy Candy (6-1)-Bates is back between the pipes and this 3-year-old filly appears to have a shot at a square price. Like the program chalk, has raced coming off cover, so a decent pace would help.
7-Sporty Miss Dune (5/2)-This filly was used hard early in the mile and got the top but faded to finish 3rd. She was handled aggressively unlike others and was an odds-on choice. Barn has been hot and could be better tonight.

Race 11

1-Dune Dame (5-1)-1 of 3 from the Leonard barn loses Casey but Wilfong knows well. Steps-up after pacing the back half in .55 to come 2nd. Best to respect from this post because has beaten this kind before from the rail.
2-Fox Valley Halsey (9/2)-Winner of >$90k in 2019 but is 0-7 this year. Had a dull try in last but before that was in the mix although starting outside. Should offer a fair price and may get sucked around and take an overdue picture.
3-Lilly Von Shtupp (7/5)-Lilly is usually in the hunt but in the last 2 has been a dominant winner. One cause for pause is she has won only 4 races over 2-years. Will respect but will look for more value and use her stablemates.

Race 12

1-Ponder Time (5-1)-Gets some class relief and post relief as the rail should help. Likes to race close to the top of the stack and will use in a race without a standout. Spreading out and looking to beat the 5/2 ML favorite #3.
2-Eternal Bliss (4-1)-Broke maiden 2-starts back at HoP and it took 22 tries. But deserves some attention versus a field that has won a total of 21 times. Bates should keep in play and fits with this bunch.
4-GD Pot Licker (25-1)-Last was a dud and now Wilfong takes a spin and that could help. At 25-1 this 3-year-old filly is worth a swing. Could be put in play early and trip out.
8-Penny Girl (5-1)-Has been facing better and will probably be bet hard. Is a must use in this spot but it's probably best to not be overconfident. Hasn't won at Haw in 6 starts and is 2-32 lifetime.

0.50 Late Pick 4

Race 9) 5,6

Race 10) 3,6,7

Race 11) 1,2,3

Race 12) 1,2,4,8

Total Ticket Cost) $36 for $0.50

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