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1/ST INDEX Full Card Travers Day Picks

by Xpressbet

August 7, 2020

Here’s a look at the full Travers card with picks from the 1/ST BET app. 1/ST BET provides free Artificial Intelligence Picks for races from around the country and also allows you to customize your handicapping experience by selecting the factors and angles that mean the most to you. 

Xpressbet customers can access 1/ST BET for handicapping and wagering using their existing Username and Password, so be sure to check it out today. 

Race 1 (12:00PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

1. #5 COMPLIANT (7/2) // 24.99% Win
2. #3 DOSWELL (9/5) // 17.00% Win
3. #1A CHOCOLATE BAR (8/1) // 13.62% Win
4. #1 GLYNN COUNTY (8/1) // 11.73% Win

Our Take: Despite a 10-month layoff, the computer has pegged Chad Brown's Compliant as its top choice, at a relatively confident 25% projected Win rate. Doswell, off since last September, is a four-time runner-up and fills that spot here while both parts of the Mike Maker-entry stand out. A Win bet on the entry gets both halves and note that the combined projection of the two parts is 25.35%.

Race 2 (12:38PM ET) // Claiming // 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

1. #3 SHALAKO (2/1) // 34.36% Win
2. #6  CREATIVE STYLE (3/1) // 18.11% Win
3. #1A MUSICAL HEART (7/5) // 16.08% Win
4. #4 HAMMERIN AAMER (9/2) // 9.98% Win

Our Take: A massive 34% Win projection follows the name of Shalako (highest Win % of any horse on the card), identifying that one as a potential single in the Early Pick 5 (Races 1 – 5) and Early Pick 4 (Races 2 -5). He won at this trip on July 18 and attracts the services of meet-leading rider, Irad Ortiz Jr. The entry of Lil Commissioner and Musical Heart rates just a combined 24.02% - not as high as you’d expect of a 7/5 favored coupled entry.

Race 3 (1:15PM ET) // Allowance // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

1. #12 SARATOGA LOVE (7/2) – AE // 22.47% Win
2. #9 LIGHT IN THE SKY (6/5) // 20.69% Win
3. #11 APPLETINI (30/1) – AE // 10.22% Win
4. #4 AVA K’S GIRL (5/1) // 8.40% Win

Our Take: With two horses from the computer’s top three picks – Saratoga Love and Appletini – stuck on the Also Eligible List, this is a race we recommend re-running the numbers after scratches on Saturday. Worth noting that six horses in this field (#1, #2, #3, #5, #7, #10) all rank at below a 3% Win projection.

Race 4 (1:49PM ET) // Claiming // 1 Mile (Turf)

1. #3 FIELD OF COURAGE (8/1) // 23.90% Win
2. #1A BRUSH COUNTRY (8/5) – MTO // 17.99% Win 
3. #5 HIEROGLYPHICS (7/5) // 11.42% Win 
4. #1 COLTANDMISSISSIPPI (8/5) – MTO // 10.11% Win 

Our Take: Both halves of the Drawing Away Stable are entered for Main Track Only (MTO), so again, this might be a race where you want to run the numbers again post scratches. Field of Courage is a somewhat surprising top pick by the computer, given he is just 1-for-11 in his career on turf. Favored Hieroglyphics figures to rate a higher chance once the four MTO entries are removed from the numbers.

Race 5 (2:26PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

1. #5 GUANA CAY (6/1) // 29.74% Win 
2. #2 AMERICAN GENTLEMAN (10/1) // 18.88% Win 
3. #1 SHACKLEFORD STRONG (8/1) // 11.72% Win 
4. #4 THE BEST DISTANCE (50/1) // 11.23% win 

Our Take: Without as much data behind this field, the computer is left to do some guesswork. And since it has yet to figure out how to listen to the ‘railbirds,’ it has downplayed the chances of two heavy favorites making their first start, Mutasaabeq (1/1) and Bottle Rocket Man (2/1), rated at 7.92% and 10.62%, respectively. Guana Cay, who made her first start on turf at Keeneland, is the standout top pick of those who have already raced.

Race 6 (3:02PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 1 1/16 Miles (Turf)

1. #11 RESTORED ORDER (8/5) – MTO // 25.49% Win 
2. #8 INCITATUS (8/1) // 11.83% Win 
3. #12 REPO ROCKS (8/1) – MTO // 10.78% Win  
4. #2 PIVOTAL MISSION (4/1) // 9.73% Win 

Our Take: Like a few earlier races, Main Track Only horses and those who have raced caught the computer’s eye before the potentially well-meant first time starters. We’ll need to reevaluate these numbers after the scratches and, similarly, you’ll want to let how the public is betting this race play into  your thinking.

Race 7 (3:42PM ET) // G1 Ballerina S. // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

1. #7 COME DANCING (3/1) // 23.71% Win
2. #1 SERENGETI EMPRESS (5/2) // 20.21% Win
3. #2 COOKIE DOUGH (12/1) // 16.71% Win
4. #6 PINK SANDS (10/1) // 10.88% Win

Our Take: The computer has pegged Come Dancing as a tepid top pick, despite her current three-race losing streak. Serengeti Empress, who nearly won the G1 Test here last summer, gets a long look as well. It’s worth mentioning that the 9/5 ML Favorite, Bellafina, is the computer’s five likeliest winner, signaling this could be a ‘deep’ leg in the All-Stakes Pick 4 that kicks off here.

Race 8 (4:22PM ET) // G3 Troy S. // 5 1/2 Furlongs (Turf)

1. #7 CHEWING GUM (9/2) // 27.07% Win
2. #1 IMPRIMIS (8/5) // 22.43% Win
3. #6 PULSATE (15/1) // 13.73% Win
4. #2 AMERICAN SAILOR (12/1) // 12.00% Win

Our Take: The computer has pegged a pair of closers – Chewing Gum and Pulsate – among its top three picks and each will need some pace help as they shorten up from 7-furlongs in a common race on July 5 at Belmont to 5 1/2-furlongs here. Favored Imprimis gets high marks while Shekky Shebaz (5/2) and Pure Sensation (3/1) have a combined 17.41% projection.

Race 9 (5:02PM ET) // G3 Waya S. // 1 1/2 Miles (Turf)

1. #1 MRS. SIPPY (6/5) // 29.31% Win
2. #5 OLYMPIC GAMES (FR) (4/1) // 20.41% Win
3. #7 FOOLS GOLD (5/1) // 12.78% Win
4. #4 MY SISTER NAT (FR) (2/1) // 11.51% Win

Our Take: The computer views this one quite formfully as its top choice, Mrs. Sippy, projects the favorite from her rail draw. A bit low of marks for My Sister Nat, but consider she is 0-for-5 in the US and just 2-for-11 in her career and it makes a little more sense.

Race 10 (5:39PM ET) // G1 Test S. // 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

1. #5 GAMINE (3/5) // 31.87% Win
2. #6 VENETIAN HARBOR (8/5) // 23.70% Win
3. #3 MRS. DANVERS (8/1) // 17.56% Win
4. #1 UP IN SMOKE (12/1) // 11.91% Win

Our Take: The card’s heaviest favorite, Gamine, gets the nod from the computer by virtue of her 18 3/4-length win in the G1 Acorn Stakes on June 20 at Belmont. The Bob Baffert-trained daughter of Into Mischief has crossed the finish line first in all three career races and rates favorably over Venetian Harbor, who has never missed the Exacta in five career races. Shug’s Mrs. Danvers gets higher marks than we may have expected and could be worth a look in your exotics.

Race 11 (6:15PM ET) // G1 Travers S // 1 1/4 Miles (Dirt)

1. #6 TIZ THE LAW (1/1) // 30.26% Win
2. #4 MAX PLAYER (6/1) // 19.77% Win
3. #5 SHIVAREE (30/1) // 15.18% Win
4. #2 COUNTRY GRAMMER (6/1) // 12.13% Win

Our Take: Tiz the Law is the third straight projected favorite to receive top marks, earning a respectable 30% projection. That stands to reason for the three-time G1 winner (Belmont Stakes, Florida Derby, Champagne Stakes). Behind him, it’s a bit more chaotic. Max Player, who unleashed an eye-catching rally to finish third in the Belmont, is the computer’s second choice and then it’s bombs away with Florida Derby runner-up in Slot 3. The computer is not fond of the chances of projected second betting choice Uncle Chuck. He receives just a 4.5% win estimate – we’ll have to see how that pans out. 

Race 12 (6:52PM ET) // Maiden Special Weight // 6 1/2 Furlongs (Dirt)

1. #9 BANKERS BEAST (9/2) // 26.86% Win
2. #7 TINY MAGOO (8/1) // 15.14% Win
3. #6 SWEET SNEAK (5/1) // 12.13% Win
4. #2 MONIFICENT (7/2) // 8.91% Win 

Our Take: In a race with eight of nine runners between 7/2 and 8/1 on the ML, it’s a bit surprising the computer has taken such a strong stand with Bankers Beast, who switches from turf-to-dirt for Mike Stidham. Behind her, the numbers are quite muddled. Every horse in the field, including longshot firster Steppin’ Hawk rates between a 7% and 15% win projection.