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Thursday, August 27: Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

August 28, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Majestic View; 2-Posse Can Disco

Forecast: The known element isn’t much, so if newcomer Posse Can Disco can run just a little he can win. Bred for speed on both sides of his pedigree and from an outfit that has reasonable stats with first-timer starters, the G. Gullo-trained gelding has shown enough in the a.m. to believe he can be competitive in a weak maiden $40,000 state-bred claimer such as thisMajestic View has shown early speed vs. tougher, adds blinkers, and could prove to be an elusive target if he can leave cleanly form the rail. In a race that we’ll otherwise not get too involved in, we’ll use both in our rolling exotics.

RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: B
Use: 2-Prairie Wings; 6-All Others Follow

Forecast: Prairie Wings missed by a neck in a mini-marathon over this course last month and a shortening in trip shouldn’t be an issue in this maiden special weight grass affair for older fillies and mares. The daughter of Tapit, runner-up in all four career starts while earning okay numbers, could find herself as the controlling speed in this six-runner affair and given that type of trip should be hard to overhaul. All Others Follow shows rising numbers with each outing and is strictly the one to beat. The daughter of Sea the Stars lacks tactical speed but can turn it on late and picks up J. Rosario. We’ll give Prairie Wings a slight edge on top but use both in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Seismic Wave; 4-Value Proposition

Forecast: Seismic Wave didn’t show his best stuff when a non-threatening sixth in the Bernard Baruch F.-G2 here last month while being somewhat victimizes by the race flow but after 11 consecutive outings in stakes competition this return to the allowance ranks represents welcomed class relief. From the rail the W. Mott-trained son of Tapit can settle in the second fight and produce his run when called upon. Value Proposition, third in the Poker S.-G3 in early July, tries as easier bunch today and is a perfect one-for-one over the Saratoga lawn, so we’re expecting the C. Brown-trained 4-year-old to return to his best form. Seismic Wave gets a slight edge on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.

RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: X
Use: 2-Judicial Restraint; 4-Height

Forecast: Height doesn’t have much to beat in this maiden $30,000 nine furlong main track router. Second in his last pair, most recently over this track and distance earlier this month, the Union Rags colt was more than four lengths clear of the rest last time out and nothing much more than a repeat of that race should be required today. He’s listed at 9/5 on the morning line while the other main contender, Judicial Restraint will add blinkers today for just his third career start after finishing a distant runner-up at this level his most recent outing in mid-June at Belmont Park. The Tonalist colt certainly has a right to improve. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics while giving Height a very slight edge on top.

RACE 5: Post 3:30 ET. Grade: B
Single: 1-Dowse’s Beach

Forecast: Dowse’s Beach seems fairly solid in this $25,000 claiming turf sprint even though he’s been beaten as the favorite in each of his last two starts. Against this group, we’re expecting the veteran son of Disco Rico to get back on track. A good runner-up to Shiraz under similar conditions earlier this month, the M. Maker-trained gelding owns six wins from 11 career stars over the local lawn the M. Maker-trained gelding, a record that certainly qualifies him as a “horse for course.” We’re expecting to see him on or near the lead throughout, so at 8/5 on the morning line we’ll make him a rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post 4:06 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1a-Little Red Frog; 2b-Mosienko; 4-Glass Ceiling

Forecast: This inner turf course mile grass affair for $32,000 claiming 3-year-old fillies has several possibilities. Glass Ceiling shows up in a seller for the first time since an easy maiden $40,000 claiming win last fall and the drop in class combined with the switch to L. Saez makes this D. Gargan-trained daughter of Constitution the top pick and one to beat. This we’ll be her first start on grass but there’s no reason she won’t handle it. Mosienko remains well above her claim level in a sign of confidence while stretching out again and retaining J. Rosario. She’s winless in five career starts on turf but on pure numbers she’s competitive so at 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth using. Little Red Frog, in the frame in her last pair, should settle into a comfortable ground-saving, mid-pack position and have every chance. She’s been flattening out in her recent races but perhaps the one-level class drop will make some difference.

RACE 7: Post 4:41 ET. Grade: B
Use: 4-A Great Time; 6-Introduced

Forecast: A Great Time is in good form and solid in the speed figure department so despite the fact that she’s just 2-for-17 in her career the veteran mare seems as good as any in this year’s edition of the Smart N Fancy S. for older fillies and mares sprinting on grass. A good third in the License Fee S. in early July, the daughter of Street Magician shows a strong, healthy series of drills at Fair Hill that should have her cranked up and ready to show her best stuff. Introduced, fourth in the much tougher Caress S. over this course and distance earlier this month, likes to settle early and produce a late kick and with good racing luck should make some serious noise in the final furlong. She’s a tad light on numbers but always has been genuine and consistent, having finished first or second in eight of 12 career starts. These are the two we’ll be including in our rolling exotics.

RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: X
Single: 2-Texas Swing

Forecast: Texas Swing, freshened since finishing a respectable third to King Guillermo in the Tampa Bay Derby-G3 in just his third career start in March, returns for T. Pletcher in a first-level allowance nine furlong main track affair and will outclass this group if he’s anywhere near fit enough. The barn hits at a strong 24% with layoff runners and the work tab, while not flashy, is steady, consistent, and healthy, so let’s expect the Curlin colt be fit and ready. He’ll be a very short price on the tote, so the best we can do is to use him as a no-value rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: X
Use: 3-Robin Sparkles; 4-Mo Me Mo My; 5-Saratoga Love;

Forecast: Robin Sparkles pulverized a maiden $40,000 claiming field with a stakes quality speed figure earlier this month over this course and distance, and while she could bounce to the moon following just two weeks of rest the daughter of Elusive Quality will simply way too fast for this group if she can turn in two alike. She’s 6/5 on the morning line for that very reason. If the B. Brown-trained filly falls back to earth, then both Mo Me Mo My and Saratoga Love, dependable types in good form, have something of a look and can be considered as back-ups or savers in rolling exotic play.