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Charles Town Pick 6 Analysis with 1/ST INDEX Assistance

by Jeremy Plonk

August 28, 2020

Friday’s mandatory payout in the jackpot Pick 6 literally adds juice to the Charles Town Classic card that features the track’s Grade 2 $600,000 annual main event in Race 11 of 12. The jackpot Pick 6 carryover of $121,973 provides extra incentive and value to horseplayers.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.
Xpressbet and 1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for the Charles Town jackpot Pick 6. All contenders who received a 10% or higher chance from the 1/ST INDEX in each race were included.

Race 7 (8:14PM ET) // $150,000 Dance to Bristol S.

2-Please Flatter Me (33% W // 56% P // 67% S)
6-Lady TNT (23% W // 40% P // 55% S)
3-Queen Nekia (15% W // 31% P // 48% S)
5-Figure it Out (10% W // 31% P // 48% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 6-Lady TNT won the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks here last year, and trainer Joe Sharp is a Charles Town native son who has done remarkably well (16: 8-3-2) with his return trips since 2017. 7-A Bit of Both is classy and fast and should be able secure at least the 2-path from her outside draw going into the clubhouse turn. I would go 4-deep in the pick six, 2-5-6-7.

Race 8 (8:44PM ET) // $100,000 Robert Hilton Memorial S.

6-Little Menace (33% W // 56% P // 67% S)
4-Jack the Umpire (23% W // 40% P // 55% S)
7-Code Runner (15% W // 31% P // 48% S)
3-Paradise Pride (10% W // 31% P // 48% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 5-Relentless Dancer and 4-Jack the Umpire’s experience on a small track at Delta Downs and in tight-turn turf sprints could help their cause on Charles Town’s 6-furlong ‘bullring’ track. 1-Lebda’s jockey Luis Batista has strong numbers riding the rail post at 7 furlongs locally (16% wins, $1.78 ROI for every $1 bet). Jockey Christian Hiraldo wins 31% with horses shortening from 1-1/8 miles to 7 furlongs at Charles Town like 7-Code Runner. This is a spread race for me in the pick six, going 5-deep, 1-4-5-6-7.

Race 9 (9:14PM ET) // $100,000 Russell Road S.

2-Lewisfield (33% W // 55% P // 62% S)
5-Clubman (20% W // 36% P // 48% S)
8-Overdeliver (13% W // 27% P // 41% S)

Jeremy’s Take: Lewisfield trains daily at Charles Town, but rarely runs here (Maryland-bred a regular at Laurel for purse bonuses). His inside draw and early speed gives him an advantage over the late-running shippers. He’s the pick six single to this eye, and the 13-point spread in the 1/ST INDEX squares with that.

Race 10 (9:43PM ET) // $200,000 Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks

9-Gifted Heart (26% W // 43% P // 56% S)
11-Call on Mischief (16% W // 20% P // 35% S)
3-Tonalist’s Shape (10% W // 24% P // 35% S)
10-Hopeful Growth (10% W // 22% P // 29% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The algorithm gave 2-Boerne the snub. I think she’s more talented than many of these, but there is a tremendous early pace expected. That should set it up for strong finisher 10-Hopeful Growth under ace local pilot Arnaldo Bocachica, who should be midpack turning onto the backstretch. Call on Mischief will need someone to scratch as she’s stuck on the also-eligible list. This is a tough call between 3 and 4 deep in the pick six, taking 2-3-9-10.

Race 11 (10:18PM ET) // $600,000 Grade 2 Charles Town Classic 

9-War Story (29% W // 43% P // 53% S)
4-Math Wizard (14% W // 29% P // 38% S)
10-Multiplier (11% W // 32% P // 43% S)
3-Mo Don’t No (10% W // 19% P // 31% S)
7-Sleepy Eyes Todd (10% W // 20% P // 28% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 9-War Story’s 15-point spread from first to second is the most from the 1/ST INDEX in any race of the pick six. Favorites have lost this race 6 straight years with an average winner at 10-1 odds, so favorite 4-Math Wizard’s deep-closing style may be played against with some confidence. Despite the 1/ST INDEX’s lack of love for 6-Mr. Money, I give him a big chance. Defending champ and local star 5-Runnin’toluvya doesn’t seem as strong this year as last, but is a danger. I’ll try to survive in the pick six with just 2-deep, 6-9.

Race 12 (10:48PM ET) // $50,000 Sylvia Bishop Memorial S. 

2-Star of Night (33% W // 55% P // 64% S)
6-Twirling Owen (21% W // 38% P // 52% S)
3-Boundtobebad (14% W // 29% P // 44% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The jockey-trainer tandem of Arnaldo Bocachica and Jeff Runco win 52% together with favorites in Charles Town stakes races since 2015, going 15-for-29. They’ve got the favorite here with 2-Star of Night. Trainer Anthony Farrier is only 1-for-11 over the last 5 years stretching out runners from 4-1/2 furlongs to longer Charles Town trips. He’ll try that with both 6-Twirling Owen and 4-Evan’s Chile. Let’s try to close the pick six with a second single, 2.