Log In

Wednesday, September 2: Saratoga Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Seigel

September 2, 2020

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.

Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.

The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

RACE 1: Post 12:45 ET. Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The Saratoga Wednesday opener, carded for hurdlers, has been cancelled due to weather.

RACE 2: Post 1:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 5-Madam Deputy; 6-Hey It’s Tati

Forecast: Madam Deputy and Hey It’s Tati will get almost all of the serious play in this maiden claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares with ‘Deputy having a very slight edge on top in her first start off the claim for Rudy (19% with this angle). A distant third in a better-than-par race for the level in her debut, the daughter of Constitution adds blinkers, shows a healthy work tab since raced and switches to L. Saez. We’re expecting her to settle early and rally late. Hey It’s Tati, comfortably drawn outside, is also adds the hood while returning to the maiden claiming ranks and rates a big shot with a repeat of her runner-up effort on dirt in her debut two races back. The daughter of Big Brown may be the controlling speed in a field with little of it. Both should be used in rolling exotic play.

RACE 3: Post 1:49 ET. Grade: X
Use: 4-Nashville; 5-Breithorn

Forecast: This race has been reduced to just four runners. Nashville, a first-timer by Speightstown that brought $400,000 at Keeneland as a yearling, finally makes it to the race in September of his 3-year-old season and is expected to win first crack out of the box, at least according to his morning line (4/5). A :58 4/5 solo gate drill over the local main track last month catches the eye and based on that drill alone the S. Asmussen-trained colt should get hammered on the tote. For protection, we’ll also include Breithorn, a first-off-the-claim play for L. Rice, who protects the acquisition after the son of Into Mischief missed in photo in a maiden $30,000 event here last month. He’s not impossible on numbers and this will be his first start with Lasix, so from his outside post the sophomore colt should draft into a stalking position and have ever chance from there.

RACE 4: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Twelfth Labour; 9-Malthael; 11-Castle Casanova

Forecast: This race has been transferred to the (sloppy) main track and will be contested at seven furlongs. Nothing would surprise. Malthael seeks his third straight win and is realistically spotted after going to Monmouth Park to win a first-level allowance race in late July. Both of his wins came in off-the-turf events, so why stop now? The Noble Mission gelding has been successful on the front end but could draft into a second flight, stalking spot and be effective with that kind of trip as well. The Clement/Rosario teams always has to be respected. Castle Casanova, away since mid-June, shows up in a seller for the first time with a sketchy work tab that hard inspires confidence. However, his form on off tracks certainly makes him dangerous, especially at this extended sprint trip. Twelfth Labour, claimed in his last pair and now in the M. Maker barn, drop from $50,000, not a healthy pattern, but the Quality Road appears to move up in the slop and could so in this softer spot while switching to I. Ortiz, Jr. He’ll be within range in the second flight and having every chance from the quarter pole homer.

RACE 5: Post 2:52 ET. Grade: B
Single: 5-Brunate

Forecast: This maiden claiming extended sprint for older state-bred runners lacks depth, so let’s try to survive and advance by taking a stand with Brunate. The Normandy Invasion gelding was more than three lengths clear of the rest when a solid runner-up in a similar affair last month while earning a career top speed figure. The switch to the barn’s “go-to” rider L. Saez is another plus, so there’s value to be found here at his morning line of 5/2 if you can get it. Hopefully, he’ll handle the wet surface.

RACE 6: Post 3:26 ET. Grade: B-
Single: 4-Doll

Forecast: This restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming fillies and mares sprint has been transferred to the sloppy/muddy main track. It’s a total mess, so we’ll try to get by as cheaply as possible, but for those with a larger budget you should go as deep as you deem necessary. Doll, freshened since mid-July and now in the R. Rodriguez barn, adds blinkers, has won over a wet surface in the past (a maiden score at the Big A in January) and has speed figures good enough to beat this field if she shows up with her best stuff. In the frame in eight of her 10 career starts, the daughter of Verrazano switches to L. Saez and may get brave if she can shake loose early.

RACE 7: Post 4:00 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Unrighteous; 10-Willing to Speed

Forecast: With this race transferred to the main track and shortened to 10 furlongs, there are only four in the original field left standing. Unrighteous in lightly-raced MTO with steadily rising speed figures for T. Pletcher and his only win – and best performance – came in an off-the-turf maiden race at Gulfstream Park last spring. He’s out of a mare by Tapit so we suspect the son of Medaglia d’Oro will handle the going. Willing to Dance, first off the claim by R. Atras, should love the distance and surface and is strong in the speed figure department as well. What makes him a tad untrustworthy is his overall record (three wins, 11 seconds/thirds, in 22 career starts) but he hit the board in his only wet-track outing so we suspect he’ll fire his best shot.

RACE 8: Post 4:34 ET. Grade: X
Single: 3-Control Group

Forecast: Off-track freak Control Group seems like a stick-out in this state-bred main track nine furlong first-level allowance affair. Listed at 7/5 on the morning line for the high-percentage O. Noda barn, the veteran son of Posse seeks his third straight score after winning over this track and distance last month with a good stalking trip and career top speed figure. Successful in 13 races from 35 career starts, he’s always been a genuine and consistent pro and with regular rider I. Ortiz, Jr. staying aboard he’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

RACE 9: Post 5:06 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Blame the Booze

Forecast: Blame the Booze won at first asking in an off-the-turf muddy track sprint at Belmont Park in mid-July, doing so with a good speed figure like a decent sort of prospect for W. Ward, and should be a very short price to score again in a race that has been reduced to just four runners and shortened to seven furlongs. He’s a logical short price, no value, rolling exotic single.

RACE 10: Post 5:38 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Nightspot; 7-Diannesimpazible; 11-K. K. Ichikawa

Forecast: The nightcap, a maiden claiming state-bred affair, has been shortened to seven furlongs and switched to the main track. K. K. Ichikawa routes like he wants to sprint and today, thanks to Mother Nature, he’ll get his chance to prove it. It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Twirling Candy gelding on or near the lead throughout. Diannesimpazible has run well under these conditions in the past while hitting the board in four of eight career starts. His resume stacks up pretty well with these rest of these, so he’s a contender. Nightspot represents stranger danger from Fair Hill. The debuting son of Orientate has the pedigree to handle a wet surface and a work tab that indicates at least some ability. Toss him in somewhere.