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My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Saratoga

by Jerry Shottenkirk

September 5, 2020

The Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes) is the headliner on the Sunday program at Saratoga. It’s also the kickoff race to the Late Pick 4, which includes two other stakes (G2 Honorable Miss and Lucky Coin Stakes) and a conditioned claiming race to end the day.

The suggested ticket is for $72 and follows a 3x4x3x4 pattern.

Here’s how I see it:

Race 9 (5:11 p.m. ET, G1 Spinaway Stakes)

LADY LILLY was all out and lasted for a victory in her career debut. Will take a leap to Grade 1 company but this is not a horribly difficult spot and it’s tough to question Steve Asmussen’s top juveniles at this point. The Hall of Fame trainer’s success with newcomers has been phenomenal this year.

BEAUTIFUL MEMORIES stumbled at the start and was pulled up shortly after the G3 Schuylerville. That’s clearly a throw-out race. Look at the 10-length win in her five-furlong debut at Churchill and you see something special.

GUANA CAY is a maiden, but she’s a Wesley Ward maiden. She improved in her second start and could benefit from the additional distance.

Race 10 (5:45 p.m. ET, G2 Honorable Miss Stakes)

COME DANCING is a millionaire and has won two of four over this strip. She was a non-threatening fourth in the G1 Ballerina and fits with these.

BLAMED set the pace and tired late in the G1 Phipps. Just missed in the Shine Again last time out and turns back to six furlongs. She’ll likely be strong on the front end at the distance.

BYE BYE J will play the role of stalker and has won three of her last five. Was impressive in the Saylorville at Prairie Meadows last out, stopping the timer in 1:08 4-5.

LADY’S ISLAND’s only Saratoga appearance produced a 13-length win. That came against starter allowance company and she has long moved on from that level. She’s a graded winner and just hasn’t run a bad one over the past few years.

Race 11 (6:17 p.m. ET, Lucky Coin Stakes)

SHEKKY SHEBAZ is well traveled and generally runs well almost everywhere he goes. Might be overplayed in the straight pool here but is worthy of inclusion in this sequence.

READYFORPRIMETIME is extremely fast but doesn’t need the lead to win, and that makes this truly dangerous in this spot.

GIDU got carried away early last time and weakened going longer, and by the looks of her form this 5.5 furlongs should work in her favor.

Race 12 (6:49 p.m. ET, claiming)

LEEWAY never got untracked last out against a better level and can be closer to the early action in this one. Can be a force in the stretch today.

FUN FINDER’s connections have tried to run her on turf but those scheduled races were washed off the grass and onto the main track. She should like the grass and can close to the pace.

SUPER CUTE fizzled in her last one, but was claimed by Maker, and that usually means improvement. Can make a run today.

POSITIVE SKEW closed mildly for fifth last time and likely will be pushed to get closer early. Was second two races back.

My Ticket

Race 9) #3 Lady Lilly, #5 Beautiful Memories, #6 Guana Cay.

Race 10) #1 Come Dancing, #2 Blamed, #5 Bye Bye J, #7 Lady’s Island.

Race 11) #1 Shekky Shebaz, #7 Readyforprimetime, #9 Gidu.

Race 12) #2 Leeway, #4 Fun Finder, #7 Super Cute, #10 Positive Skew.

Total Ticket Cost) 3,5,6/1,2,5,7/1,7,9/2,4,7,10 = $72 for $0.50