It’s closing night at Assiniboia Downs in Winnipeg. And for the third time this season, there’s a large mandatory payout in play for the jackpot pick five wager, which boasts a $202,318 carryover. The 20-cent base wager lured $2.7 million in new money into a $447K carryover in July. Just under $2 million was bet into August’s $420K carryover. Look for at least $1 million of new money tonight, and these are much bigger fields than we saw in July and August.

Not familiar with Assiniboia Downs? No worries. The 1/ST BET app can help you bridge the gap with a data-driven process.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Xpressbet and 1/ST handicapper Jeremy Plonk provides his human insights to the AI picks for big jackpot pick five sequence on the final night of the Assiniboia Downs meeting.

Race 4 (10:05 PM ET) // Claiming // 7 1/2 Furlongs

9 – Bear Me a Moment (30% W // 46% P // 58% S)
8 – Captain John (15% W // 37% P // 52% S)
10 – Double Time (10% W // 24% P // 36% S)
6 – Millslocal (9% W // 15% P // 20% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The 30% total and 15-point spread for Bear Me a Moment both are highs among any contender in this pick five sequence. He’s twice been beaten favorite the only 2 times dropped in for a claiming tag, but looks appealing at the 8-1 morning line price. Double Time will be ridden by Rafael Zenteno Jr., who is 11: 4-1-1 over this distance in the past month. I’ll try to escape the opener with those two, 9-10.

Race 5 (10:35 PM ET) // Claiming // 7 1/2 Furlongs

4 – Button Mushroom (29% W // 45% P // 56% S)
8 – Storm Stride (14% W // 36% P // 50% S)
9 – Swear Vengeance (9% W // 23% P // 35% S)
3 – West Princess (8% W // 15% P // 19% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The 15-point spread for Button Mushroom matches the highest in the pick five races, and his jockey Rafael Zenteno Jr. has been riding this 7-1/2 furlong trip with great success in the past month. He is a 4-time winner at the meet and the one to beat at this class level and distance. Trainer Jared Brown (Storm Stride) has had the most successful claiming barn at ASD the past month (25% wins, 50% in exacta). Jockey Shawn Samuel (Swear Vengeance) has a low percentage for the meet, but has been riding this trip to an 7: 3-1-0 mark ($4.05 ROI for every $1 bet!) since August 19. Eye Catching is worth a look as the jockey-trainer tandem of Richard Mangalee & Steven Gaskin is 3-for-5 together since August 26. Mangalee is 20% and a $1.76 ROI for every $1 bet for all barns over the past month, riding as well as anyone on the grounds. Trainer Tom Gardipy (Mizzenhower) is 7: 2-2-1 with claimers over this 7-1/2 furlong distance since August 18 and has a class riser looking for 5 wins in a row. This is a classic single or spread, either taking the 4 solo or using 4,1,2,8,9.

Race 6 (11:05 PM ET) // Claiming // 5-1/2 Furlongs

9 – Dad’s a Gambler (17% W // 32% P // 49% S)
4 – Dixie Pulpit (15% W // 31% P // 41% S)
12 – Disco Cat (10% W // 16% P // 25% S)
8 – Walking Solo (10% W // 15% P // 27% S)

Jeremy’s Take: 1/ST INDEX choice Dad’s a Gambler offers a teasing 8-1 morning line on the class drop and likely will be bet down some off this price. Dixie Pulpit goes first off the claim for trainer Mike Taphorn (barn’s only starter on the card), and note this outfit is 6: 3-2-1 locally since August 5. Let’s use the top trio – 9,4,12.

Race 7 (11:35 PM ET) // Claiming // 5-1/2 Furlongs

7 – Bye Y’all (18% W // 33% P // 50% S)
11 – Twisted Sensation (17% W // 33% P // 40% S)
1 – Vallentay (16% W // 31% P // 42% S)
5 – Coco Padrino (11% W // 17% P // 26% S)

Jeremy’s Take: The top 3 contenders all within a single point make this the most contentious race in the pick five, according to the 1/ST INDEX. The 9-5 morning line chalk Bye Y’all takes a suspicious class drop off a 2-month layoff and at the end of the meet. Vallentay should appreciate the reduced distance. Trainer Jared Brown (Coco Padrino) has had the most successful claiming barn at ASD the past month (25% wins, 50% in exacta). I’m rolling the dice here two-deep with 5,1 in a race where folks might tend to spread wider.

Race 8 (12:05 AM ET) // Claiming // 6 Furlongs

6 – Kats Second Silver (23% W // 39% P // 52% S)
4 – Honour Road (17% W // 36% P // 47% S)
7 – Sheer Prince (13% W // 27% P // 41% S)
10 – Cecil the Cat (9% W // 16% P // 25% S)
(AE) 14 – Candy Con (7% W// 17% P // 29% S)
12 – Warbridge (7% W // 14% P // 22% S)
2 – Eye Cloud (6% W // 15% P // 22% S)

Jeremy’s Take: This race also has an $81,338 carryover into the jackpot super high 5 wager, which must be paid out in this, the meet’s final race. So we’ve included a few more contenders deeper into the 1/ST INDEX run-down. Kats Second Silver and Honour Road look classier than most of these and fit very well. Trainer Jared Brown (Sheer Prince & Cecil the Cat) has had the most successful claiming barn at ASD the past month (25% wins, 50% in exacta). Let’s finish four-deep with 6,4,7,10.

Jeremy’s Pick Five Ticket(s)

Smaller budget:
9,10 with 4 with 9,4,12 with 5,1 with 6,4,7,10 ($9.60 for each $.20)

Larger budget:
9,10 with 4,1,2,8,9 with 9,4,12 with 5,1 with 6,4,7,10 ($48 for each $.20)