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Monday, September 28: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

September 28, 2020

Tonight, there are 10-races on the Woodbine Mohawk program. The feature comes in Race 5, an Ontario Sires Stakes Gold Final with a $158,000 purse. The 0.20 Pick 5 opens the card, it has a $100,000 guaranteed pool and will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-Prayerforthewicked (3-1)-Gets a new pilot tonight and Roy will probably look to get a close-up seat. Alagna trainee will need the right trip, and is in a spot to get sucked around and shake loose late.
5-No Free Lunch (7/2)-Had been facing Gold company in June and July until scratched sick and then missed over a month. Returned last week, raced from the back while starting from post 8 but rolled the last half in 54.2. Could be sitting on a big try.
7-Socrates Blue Chip (5/2)-Drops but hasn't raced since 9/5. Has been cashing checks versus top 2-year-olds here and at GrVr. Probably the fastest freshman in the field and can grind its way around if ready to go after the time-off.

Race 2

3-Arcanum (8-1)-Slow starts are an issue but may have met a beatable field. Comes off a nice try and if MacDonell can get into a live cover flow the fractions might be swift enough to roll by the leaders at a nice price.
6-Fortune Starlet (5-1)-Comes off a 4th place finish to Romona Hill and should relish the company. Ought to get a good seat from this post and be in striking range down the lane.
8-Nimbus Deo (4-1)-Winner in 3 of 4 starts all happening at Wbsb and now seeks 4th straight picture. Baillargeon barn has cooled off some in the past 30 days but best to respect connections here.

Race 3

3-Pikachu Hanover (3-1)-Has had some issues this year but does have 5 wins in 17 races. This will be the 4th start since some time off after a sick scratch. Gets a little post relief, McClure sticks and has won 8 of 21 starts at Wbsb.
5-Cool Muscle (5/2)-Consistent 6-year-old has finished 2nd in the last 5 starts and those winners are not in this field. Looks like a major player, could be put in play sooner and take 1st picture since 8/3.

Race 4

5-Moneymakehersmile (3-1)-Has been 1st or 2nd in last 3 starts and figures to be a threat versus this crew but is only 1-17 at Mohawk. Main nemesis starts outside from post 9 and that could be a big edge.
7-Miss Rockadali (8-1)-Was used hard from the 8-hole and did get the point but the 55.4 half did take its toll. Faded badly but was off for 17 days and it was the 1st start for new barn. McNair sticks and will look for a return to recent form and a big effort at a juicy price.
9-Vines To Heaven (7/2)-Won last in a claim and 1st start for Moreau angle. Has won 8 of 45 races at Wbsb and tonight makes the 1st start for the Fritz barn. That conditioner is about as successful as Moreau with 1st time starters after a claim, so best to respect.

Race 5

6-HP Royal Theo (3-1)-Gets a little post relief and will probably have a better trip than in last 2 starts. Did break late in the mile on 9/19 and will write that off due to a tough trip. This is a competitive group, but Roy might blast out and get the top. That seems to be the recipe for a winning formula as there isn't much gate speed inside.
8-Hot Wheelz (9/2)-Has been racing well and Jamieson has some options from this post. My guess is he won't look to get on the engine but could find a good seat. Can win this at a square price coming off cover and it wouldn't be a surprise if a sub .56 half is in the cards.

My Ticket

Race 1) 

Race 2) 3,6,8

Race 3) 3,5

Race 4) 5,7,9

Race 5) 6,8

Total Ticket Cost) $21.60 for $0.20

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