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Monday, November 02: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

November 2, 2020

Woodbine Mohawk Park has an 11-race card to start the week. The 0.20 Late Pick 4 begins in Race 8 and that sequence will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

3-Conquest As (8-1)-Even effort in first local start but has faced tough company out East. Came the back half in 56.2 in an acclimating mile. Could be overlooked at the windows and has won 8 of 16 lifetime starts.
5-HP Bruxelles (8-1)-Started very slowly in last and that sealed his fate but did go 55.3 in the 2nd half. Filion should be able to duck early and could get sucked around to roll by late at a solid price.
6-Delilah Seelster (7/2)-In the last four races, has started from the nine hole twice and then post 8 twice. On 10/16 raced against a winner of last 3 starts, now Henry is back in the bike and should be a major player.

Race 9

3-Oney Hall (3-1)-Will respect chances of this razor sharp winner of last three, but this will be a more difficult challenge. Steps up and could win but won't offer any value if bet hard again.
5-Im The Muscle (9/2)-Steps-up off a nice win from the 7 hole and will need another top try. But this is a good post draw and Roy could get the jump on #9, who is dropping.
9-Mass Fortune K (7/2)-Has been in the hunt versus Pfrd company but hasn't been good enough to win in the last 2 months. MacDonald will likely be aggressive so the start will be key. Should be a major player with a smooth trip.

Race 10

3-Southwind Avenger (4-1)-Four-year-old has taken a step back this year and but has battled some tough company out East. Lands in the Aucielo barn and does have 3 wins in 16 starts here. Has banked >$300K at Wbsb and will respect chances in a race without a standout.
4-Steuben Hanover (5/2)-Finished 3rd in last 2 starts and now drops. Loses regular pilot in McClure who was in Indiana over the weekend. Young steered last week and just missed versus better from post 9. Should be a short price.
5-Superlative (7/2)-Raced well from the 2nd tier in last and fits at this level. Likes to come off cover and the pace could be lively so best to not overlook.
8-Treasured Tee (6-1)-Raced from the back versus better in last and now drops to a better spot. McNair won with this Moreau trainee in NW5k on 10/16. Should be out and going off the gate tonight. Does have enough gate speed to get a close-up seat and should be a square price.

Race 11

2-Beachin Lindy (8-1)-Drops after 2 straight starts from post 9. 0-18 record in 2020 doesn't inspire much confidence but this is a soft spot. Will look for a good price in a race with many who are camera shy. This is the bottom class and the entire field has a total of 15 wins this year.
3-Westslucky Terror (6-1)-Drops after rolling hard in the 2nd half to just miss last week and has a good chance to pick-up 2nd win of the year. Using, and leaving the program chalk who starts in the 2nd tier off the ticket.

My Ticket

Race 8) 3,5,6

Race 9) 3,5,9

Race 10) 3,4,5,8

Race 11) 2,3

Total Ticket Cost) $14.40 for $0.20

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