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$91K Stronach 5 Carryover Analysis - November 27

by Jeremy Plonk

November 25, 2020

The holiday weekend’s best bet is Friday’s Stronach 5, where a $91,481.74 carryover awaits horseplayers. The low 12% takeout, $1 minimum bet matches a trio of races from Maryland’s Laurel Park and Gulfstream Park West in Florida. You can bet the Stronach 5 online and on mobile, including 1/ST BET and Xpressbet.

(Leg A) Laurel Park Race 7 – 3:20 pm ET

Multiple conditions get you eligible for this race, and it makes for a wide span...non-winners of 2 lifetime to horses with as many as 6 wins. Betmix shows that 7-furlong Laurel sprints favor horses stretching out in trip by the numbers (16% wins vs. 13% returning at 7F and 11% cutting back). Maryland Million Distaff Starter winner #1 Odd Gal should fit well and makes a significant move to top rider Trevor McCarthy. That’s a J/T combo hitting 32% together over their last 50 starts. I’ll focus on Odd Gal and the solid 1-turn form of #1 Queen of Tomorrow, even if on the cut-back. They have 9 wins between them.

(Leg B) Laurel Park Race 8 – 3:50 pm ET

Those entered for the $25,000 claiming price in this race appear to have the class edge in another tricky, dual-conditioned race. #5 Belle Tapisserie is among those dropping in class and notably Delaware Park shippers have been on point of late at Laurel Park. Hot-riding apprentice Alexander Crispin sticks, and the only question here is if this gelding handles the local surface for the first time. Sire Tapizar gets a strong 20% winners locally on dirt since the start of 2019, according to Betmix, to alleviate some of that concern. Classy #10 Unmatchable stands the next-best chance.

(Leg C) Gulfstream Park West Race 8 – 3:58 pm ET

Four last-out winners look to double-down as the GPW meet nears its end. Of those, #3 Ima Daredevil and #6 Brookes All Mine stand out for high-percentage claiming barns. The 6-1/2 furlong trip should perfectly suit the late run of #5 Baccarat Fashion, while jockey Paco Lopez likely keeps her closer to the pace than her pervious pilots. Bigger tickets may also want to include #8 Free to Fly in search of a third win at the meet.

(Leg D) Laurel Park Race 9 – 4:20 pm ET

Trainer Kelly Rubley’s 1-turn milers at Laurel always merit respect, and she won a couple of maiden claimers here last week routing at prices. Rubley’s contender #14 Sing Along Suzy should fit at this bottom class level on the drop in price. #4 Rye Street’s last 2 on the Laurel main stack up with these. Late-running #5 Lady Fox fits the 1-turn mile’s elongated stretch run to the second wire. #10 Sorrelina appears for a claiming tag for the first time with a high-percentage trainer and could fit. Deeper tickets consider #11 Vanna Belle on the drop and #13 Bourbon Style switching to red-hot jockey Sheldon Russell.

(Leg E) Gulfstream Park West Race 9 – 4:27 pm ET

#7 Kantharos’ Image stands out in this turf sprint, making his all-important second start off the layoff. He changes to top rider Edgard Zayas in a notable move, and he’s been riding the dash distances superior to all at the current meet. Alternate considerations if this proposed single were to scratch include #5 Frenchmen Street on the claim-and-rise for hot barn Carlos David and #1 Hauntedbythemusic, a classy dirt sort who tries turf for the first time. His sire The Big Beast has had success on both GPW surfaces with his offspring.

Stronach 5 Suggested Plays

Smaller Ticket

2,1 with 5,10 with 3,6,5 with 14,4,5,10 with 7 = $48

Larger Ticket

2,1 with 5,10 with 3,6,5,8 with 14,4,5,10,11,13 with 7 = $96