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Dover Downs Stakes Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

November 25, 2020

Grand Circuit racing for 2020 concludes today at Dover Downs with the $325,000 Progress Pace for 3-year-olds. This will be the final race for the Ron Burke trainee Cattlewash who is the 2-1 morning line favorite, and trainer John Ackley's Catch the Fire. The 15-race card also features fillies and colts in Delaware Breeders Fund action.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8-Delaware Breeders Final-2-year-old filles pace-Purse $100,000

6-Littlebagoftricks (5/2)-Has won its last 2 starts on a fast and sloppy track. Versatile filly can race off cover or set the pace and she rates a slight edge.
2-Stealing Bases (7/2)-Talented 2-year-old has won 5 of 7 starts and has never missed hitting the board. Was caught down the lane in last by #6 who rallied off a pocket trip. Had won 5 of 6 previously and not sure if Tetrick wanted to use her down the stretch in a race that didn't matter much.
4-Hey Hey Dbay (9/2)-It wouldn't shock me if this filly takes a picture tonight but will probably need to go a couple of seconds faster than she has. Has won 2 straight, paced the 2nd half in 57.2 last week and should offer a square price.
5-Cinder's Baby (6-1)-Here's the 2nd leading money winner in the field who placed in a $100,000 stake at Harrington. Could be overlooked at the windows and might add some pop to the gimmicks.

Race 10-Delaware Breeders Final-2-year-old colts pace-Purse $100,000

8-Henrico (5/2)-This is one of two entries from the Clyde Francis barn and the arrow is pointing up on this colt. Winner of 3 straight drew off to beat stable mate #7, who was the slight favorite last week. Starting outside doesn't help chances but does help the price and Morgan can leave to get a good seat.
6-Z's Dream (7/2)-This 2-year-old gelding might be the fastest off the gate and has a post edge on main foes. Best to not overlook because if Stafford gets the top and steals a quarter chances for a picture go up.
7-Subban (9/2)-Did win a $100,000 Final in Harrington on 10/7, but since coming off the bench in November hasn't been as sharp. Looked a little rough coming down the lane last week but is a major threat with a top effort.
4-Mr Overbite (8-1)-Has had a breaking issue but put in a clean line here on 11/16 to break maiden. Could hit the bottom of the Super at a big price if Callahan can provide a smooth journey.

Race 12-Progress Pace Final-Purse $325,000

7-No Lou Zing (5/2)-Three great horses who raced for the last time at the Big M over the weekend in stakes all won before heading to retirement. My take is that won't happen tonight. This Takter pupil has been sharp, likes the track and is ranked 5th in money earned among 3-year-old pacers for 2020. Dunn should be able to get the top or the 2 hole behind Cattlewash. Either trip could work for a season ending victory.
4-Fortify (9/2)-This is another from the Takter stable and this pupil hasn't been able to beat the top colts this year. But has been racing well and comes off a tough trip from post 10 last week. Tetrick should put in striking range and has a post edge over the top talent. Might be overlooked at the windows and will use in gimmicks.
8-Cattlewash (2-1)-This will be the last start before heading to stud. Burke trainee is as game as they come and is often used hard to get the top. Could win his finale but from this post I'm saying no.
5-Catch The Fire (7/2)-This is a very nice 3-year-old who is also making his last start. Draws inside the morning line chalks and should be in the mix but has lacked a big finish recently.

$10 Exacta 7/4
$10 Trifecta 7-4-8 and 7-8-4
Total Bet=$30

Happy Thanksgiving!

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