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Friday, December 18: Cal Expo Early Pick 5 Analysis

by Al Cimaglia

December 18, 2020

Tonight, Cal Expo has a Pick 5 carryover of $8,296 which has led to a $30,000 guaranteed pool in the 0.20 Early Pick 5. It is a challenging sequence, and it will be my focus.

This will be the first time the Cal Expo TV broadcast will be in high definition and that should make for a much better viewing experience.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 1

2-Dance Traveler (5-1)-This is the 4th start at CalX and now draws inside. Has been battling but is camera shy. This was Doug Chappell's pick over the #3, he needs to put into striking range and an honest pace would help.
4-West Central Beach (5-1)-Will toss last, raced wide in the slop. A brisk pace would also help and if Cutting finds a live cover flow it could be time for the 5th picture in 24 starts this year.

Race 2

1-Casey N Grinegan (6/5)-Program chalk looks the part and has raced well in all 4 starts here with 3 wins. But does take on some who have been facing better. Looks like a must use but at this level will include one more.
3-Brooklyn Moonshine (4-1)-Comes off a win and Plano will likely try to follow the same script. Should leave and get a close-up seat and look to sweep by late.

Race 3

2-Mr Steal Your Girl (6-1)-Plano has been sticking with the Cisco barn all night and that's the case here. Drops and will toss last in the slop, off-track record is 0-6. Looking for new pilot to put in play and could trip out for a picture.
3-Hi Ho Julio (4-1)-Slow starter needs to avoid being a city block behind at the first call. But will respect connections, the Johnson barn has been doing well and this 4-year-old has faced better.
4-Crash Dive (10-1)-Makes 1st start for new barn, Kennedy is between the pipes and that's a ++driver change. Willing to take a swing at this price, is very camera shy but has been facing better.
5-Get My Good Side (8/5)-Risky play, breaking issues in 2 of 3 starts at CalX and is 0-17. Three-year-old shows enough speed to beat this crew and is tough to leave out but need to use a few others as well.

Race 4

1-Touchmehowtotory (7/2)-Gets post and class relief plus Roland is back between the pipes. Three-year-old filly has won 8 of 20 and now faces older. Looks like a player with a top effort.
2-Mshindi (5/2)-Eight-year-old also drops to a better level for success but recent form has been dull. Plano could be aggressive but might be over bet and is only 1-22 in 2020.
6-Jesse's Student (5/1)-Makes only the 3rd start since 8/25 and the 3rd start of the meet. Best to respect at a square price, Svendsen's back and did pace the 2nd half in 56.4 last week.

Race 5

1-Sweet One (8-1)-Looking for a price and is Plano's choice over the 4/5/9. Could get a cozy trip and surprise.
2-Along Came Jane (3-1)-Jane has showed little since coming to town but does face a soft group. Kennedy steers and comes back in 6 days, could be ready for an aggressive try.
4-Ucia Hanover (10-1)-Has been starting slowly and now gets a positive driver change. Looking for Roland to get a decent early seat in 1st start for the Schneider barn and be in the mix.
7-Cardinal Rule (5-1)-This will be the 2nd time for Lasix and came home in 57.2 in last. Form looks sharp enough to beat this bunch, but pilot will need a good performance and to find live cover.

My Ticket

Race 1) 2,4

Race 2) 1,3

Race 3) 2,3,4,5

Race 4) 1,2,6

Race 5) 1,2,4,7

Total Ticket Cost) $38.40 for $0.20

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