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Wednesday, February 10: 1/ST BET AI Picks for Delta's Premier Stakes Card

by Jeremy Plonk

February 10, 2021

Delta Downs offers an all-stakes Wednesday program for its Premier Day. Let’s dig into the artificial intelligence of the 1/ST BET app for a deeper dive into the card, providing data-driven insight on an exciting day of racing at a track you may not always frequent.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with the selections.

RACE 1 (1:55 PM ET) // PREMIER BON TEMPS STARTER STAKES // 5 FURLONGS

#8 DIVA’S RANSOM (10-1) // 37% Win
#2 SHE’S SEVENTEEN (5-1) // 13% Win
#5 HAVE NO FEAR (3-1) // 12% Win
#1A GRILLIN (9-5) // 12% Win
Notes: The 37% win projection matches the highest on today’s Delta card, as does the 24-point spread between the first and second AI choices. Match that up with a 10-1 morning line proposition, and 1/ST BET will be off to a flying start if on the mark in the opener. DIVA’S RANSOM was a last-out winner over the track and distance at 11-1 odds. The early pick 5 starts here.

RACE 2 (2:23 PM ET) // PREMIER LADIES STARTER STAKES // 1 MILE

#6 BLUE SUEDE GUITAR (7-2) // 33% Win
#4 STAR GAZE (4-1) // 18% Win
#5 NANA’S JOY (5-1) // 16% Win
#1 MEMORY MAGIC (8-1) // 14% Win
Notes: Curious dismissal by the algorithm of 6-5 morning line favorite KRIS T., who has won all 4 starts at the Delta meet. She netted only an 11% win projection. BLUE SUEDE GUITAR was defeated 2 lengths by KRIS T. last time out, but was coming off of a September layoff. The early pick 4 starts here.

RACE 3 (2:52 PM ET) // PREMIER STARLET STAKES // 1 MILE

#4 AUSTRALASIA (2-1) // 32% Win
#3 WINNING ROMANCE (4-1) // 20% Win
#5 INAWIC (12-1) // 14% Win
#7 CILLA (7-5) // 14% Win
Notes: Top choice AUSTRALASIA is 2-2 lifetime and has a win over the track around 2 turns in stakes company. CILLA, the 7-5 morning line chalk, was a distant third in the Grade 1 Frizette and makes her first local start while training at all winter.

RACE 4 (3:22 PM ET) // PREMIER RAGIN CAJUN STARTER STAKES // 5 FURLONGS

#5 ALLURING ACTOR (5-2) // 30% Win
#3 MADELYN’S WILD MAX (5-1) // 21% Win
#2 HALFMOON REEF (8-1) // 14% Win
#7 MAN CAMP (7-2) // 9% Win
Notes: The 9-point spread between the top two 1/ST BET selections is the second-narrowest on today’s card. ALLURING ACTOR has won 2 of his last 3 races, while 10-year-old veteran MADELYN’S WILD MAX was claimed last out by high-percentage trainer Karl Broberg likely with eligibility in this race in mind.

RACE 5 (3:52 PM ET) // PREMIER PRINCE STAKES // 1 MILE

#7 STANDING PERFECT (3-1) // 32% Win
#3 JIMMY TWO TIMES (9-5) // 20% Win
#2 G’WILDCAT (8-1) // 14% Win
#4 WISE ANCHOR (5-1) // 14% Win
Notes: JIMMY TWO TIMES has dominated his last 2 starts at Fair Grounds and will try Delta Downs and 2 turns for the first time as the likely favorite. STANDING PERFECT already has answered both of those questions and brings the home-court advantage at what figures to be a more attractive price.

RACE 6 (4:22 PM ET) // PREMIER SPRINT STAKES // 5 FURLONGS

#8 NO PAROLE (3-5) // 37% Win
#2 LAUGHINGSAINTSONG (6-1) // 14% Win
#1 MR. PRODUCTION (15-1) // 13% Win
#7 DOUBLE BARRELL MAN (8-1) // 12% Win
Notes: Last year’s Premier Prince winner NO PAROLE went on to become a Grade 1 winner and one of country’s best 3-year-old sprinters. He’s 3-3 against Louisiana-breds in his career, winning by more than 33 combined lengths. The 37% win projection matches the highest on today’s Delta card. The late pick 5 starts here and it’s probably wise to take the ‘free space.’

RACE 7 (4:54 PM ET) // PREMIER DISTAFF STAKES // 1 MILE

#4 SNOWBALL (7-2) // 22% Win
#6 NET A BEAR (2-1) // 15% Win
#9 QUIKFAST N AHURRY // 14% Win
#10 SAINTS N MUSKETS // 11% Win
Notes: Both the 22% win projection and 7-point spread from first to second choice are the smallest on the Premier Day card. This should be the most contentious and wide-open race of the day, according to the app. The late pick 4 starts here. Top AI picks SNOWBALL and NET A BEAR’s styles are to rally from far off the pace. If looking to add contenders, consider those near the front of the pack for match-up variety.

RACE 8 (5:24 PM ET) // PREMIER MATRON STAKES // 5 FURLONGS

#5 MR. AL’S GAL (7-5) // 37% Win
#7 SOUTHERN BEAUTY (5-1) // 13% Win
#1 FORTY NINE MODEL (8-1) // 12% Win
#2 OUR LOST LOVE (7-2) // 12% Win
Notes: The 37% win projection matches the highest on today’s Delta card, as does the 24-point spread between the first and second AI choices. Strong favorite MR. AL’S GAL has 15 career wins and a 5-8 local record at Delta Downs. OUR LOST LOVE defeated MR. AL’S GAL by a nose in December at Fair Grounds over 6 furlongs; now they rematch at 5 furlongs.

RACE 9 (5:55 PM ET) // PREMIER CHAMPIONSHIP STAKES // 1-1/16 MILES

#3 SOCIAL AFLEET (15-1) // 32% Win
#8 JUS LIVELY (5-1) // 20% Win
#2 UNDERPRESSURE (5-2) // 12% Win
#9 NIPPY RED (20-1) // 10% Win
Notes: Longshots abound in the 1/ST BET AI picks for this one. SOCIAL AFLEET, an alum of last year’s Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, makes his third start since changing trainers and should appreciate the distance. Favorite UNDERPRESSURE won this race last year at 5-1 odds and makes his fourth career appearance in the Premier Night Championship (second, sixth prior).

RACE 10 (6:25 PM ET) // PREMIER GENTLEMEN STARTER STAKES // 1-1/16 MILES

#7 MUCH CLASS (2-1) // 29% Win
#2 KRAFTY BOY (6-1) // 19% Win
#6 EXTON (5-1) // 11% Win
#10 GREELEY’S DEALER (12-1) // 9% Win
Notes: The 29% win projection is the second-lowest on today’s card for an AI top pick. MUCH CLASS has won 2 of his last 3 races and changes barns off the claim from one high-percentage outfit to another. EXTON also changes barns while red-hot, winning 3 of his last 4. KRAFTY BOY snapped his 0-15 mark at Delta with a win locally last out and finished a close fourth in this race a year ago.