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Sunday, February 21: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

by Al Cimaglia

February 21, 2021

Cal Expo has a 12-race card this evening with the 0.20 Pick 4 beginning in Race 9. That sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Last night, except for a handful of times the winner was on the lead turning for him. Near the top was the place to be as no one closed from further back than two lengths off the lead to win.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

2-Sarah Toga Again (9/2)-Qualifier after a sick scratch was better than it looked, did pace the 2nd half in 57.2. Gets some necessary class relief, Plano takes the lines and that shouldn't hurt.
3-Blue Gem (15-1)-Will toss last from post 8 and could get sucked around here and stay in the mix. Can pass foes down the lane and this is a scattered bunch so will take a swing for a price.
10-Gordy Again (5-1)-Roland trainee is camera shy and fits with this crew. The post makes the price and the last 2 starts have been better. Will need a trip but if the journey is smooth it could be picture time.

Race 10

1-Bobs Time (6-1)-Comes off an even effort after an injured scratch and was off 3-weeks. Looks like a player if 100%, can close in a hurry but will need to mind manners.
2-Rockinscience (5-1)-Won at this level on 1-17, now drops to face similar and should enjoy the company. Plano trainee might be cycling back to top form and is threat to take top honors.
5-Outlaw Blue By You (7/2)-Doug Chappell is back in the bike and he gets along well with this 7-year-old. Raced from the back in last when starting from the 8-hole. Gets some needed class relief and could be sitting on a big try.
8-PH Hippie (8-1)-Versatile gelding can race on the lead or come from off cover. Faced $8k claimers in last and cashed a 3rd place check. Lackey can put in play and be in striking range turning for home at a solid price.

Race 11

2-Cardinal Rule (8-1)-Steps-up after ground saving win and might be overlooked at the windows. Best to respect as last 2 races have been better. Has taken 3 pictures at CalX in 8 tries and this post draw could help chances.
4-Bettor Lady (7/2)-Has only 2 wins in last 24 starts but recent form has been sharp. Likes to roll late, Plano can work that kind of trip and the pace could be lively.

Race 12

2-Senseless Beauty (15-1)-Svendsen takes a seat and that could make a difference. Needs an efficient trip and with this post draw that could happen. Willing to take a swing for a price in a race without much form and the chalk starting outside.
3-Place At The Beach (9/2)-Drops to a better level for success. Barn has been cold but should be competitive versus this crew.
4-Selma O'Brien (6-1)-There are reasons to think Selma won't be 6-1, she has only 1 win in the last 29 starts and is 0 for 11 at CalX. All that said, did show some life last week and paced the 2nd half in .58. Stewart can get her into striking range at the top of the lane and pop at nice odds.
8-Prom Queen (2-1)-Four-year-old mare drops and should like the company but has a bunch of even efforts at this meet. Gets a positive driver change with Roland talking the lines, so will use but not with a lot of confidence.

My Ticket

Race 9) 2,3,10

Race 10) 1,2,5,8

Race 11) 2,4

Race 12) 2,3,4,8

Total Ticket Cost) = $19.20 for $0.20

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