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Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

by Al Cimaglia

February 28, 2021

Cal Expo has a 12-race card ready to go tonight and the 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

3-Noisy Nora (3-1)-Noira drops to the basement and with 1 win in 42 tries she can use the help. Does pass horses down the lane sometimes. Will include but is 0-33 at CalX and offers no value.
5-Blue Gem (9/2)-This would be the spot for an overdue win. Last picture happened versus similar on 12-5. Could be dialed on high tonight and this is a field without much form.
6-Selma O'Brien (6-1) -Broke down the lane to lose all chance in last. Probably wouldn't have won but might have hit the board. Will take a swing she minds her manners and the ++ driver change to Roland makes a difference.
7-Place At The Beach (5-1)-Dropped to this level in last and was used hard to get the lead but faded down the lane. Longo may look to grind things out this time. Went off as the chalk last week and could be overlooked at the windows.
9-Queen Of Marcs (15-1)-Drew the rail when dropped to this class in last and was a game 3rd. Closers came on to win that race and this mare held on better than others. This post will add to a big price and is worth a swing versus this crew.

Race 10

1-Marvtherat (5-1)-Drew outside in last and rallied from way back to cash a 3rd place check. Not sure starting from the rail helps but did pace a .56 last half and a 27.1 final quarter. Could offer a square price and should be a threat with an alert start.
6-Timetoplaythegame (6-1)-Drops to the level of an odds-on win on 2-5. Cutting returns and was his choice. Should like the company and can pass them all down the lane.
7-Bet Together (5/2)-Has raced from the back in the last 3 starts and has not been able to snag a win. Did take a lot of action at the windows in last and will look for a more aggressive steer tonight.
9-Fly Away (5-1)-Beat many of these last week with a trip out win from the rail. This won't be as easy. Svendsen is between the pipes and he knows well. Twelve-year-old can come from off cover and that could work well if the pace is honest.

Race 11

4-Mystic Ruler (3-1)-Drops after battling $8k claimers in last 3 starts. Has the speed to beat this crew but will need Roland to get a good early seat.
6-To The Limit (2-1)-Steps-up after taking care of $4k claimers with a 56.1 back half as an odds-on choice. Nine-year-old likes CalX winning 14 of 59 starts. Should be rolling late and the short field won't hurt chances.

Race 12

5-Cantholdmebackmack (5/2)-Camera shy 11-year-old loses Roland as he steers his own but is Plano's choice over the 8. Drops after being used twice and not able to stay with a strong winner. Raced close to the top in a 55.3 1st half last week and this race may set-up better.
7-Buzz Light (3-1)-Buzz has been facing tougher and could make some noise at this level. Latest form has been dull but can close faster than this crew and will look for a big try here.

0.20 Pick 4

Total Bet=$16

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