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1/ST BET AI Picks for Tampa's Pick 5 Carryover

by Jeremy Plonk

March 3, 2021

Tampa Bay Downs opens its racing week Wednesday with a tempting $45,000-plus carryover in the late pick five. That sequence will go as Races 5-9 and has a 50-cent minimum wager. Let’s dig into the artificial intelligence of the 1/ST BET app for a deeper dive into the pick five, providing data-driven insight on a player’s edge bet at a track you may not always frequent.

Selections provided by the 1/ST BET app measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer. We’ve included the official track morning line odds with the selections.

RACE 5 (2:15 PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1-1/16 MILES (TURF)
#7 Fly Nightly (9-2) // 23%W
#5 Bee Major (8-1) // 23%W
#1 Idle Time (5-2) // 14%W
#14 Rattlesnake Ridge (20-1) // 10%W

Notes: Fly Nightly steps up in class off a win over the course and distance for a high-percentage trainer. Bee Major won his last on turf and gets leading rider Antonio Gallardo at a juicy price. Morning line favorite Idle Time was second last out as the 4-5 chalk and should appreciate the extra distance. This sets up as a 2 or 3-deep situation when considering the 1/ST BET data.

#1 Ballet School (4-1) // 32%W
#5 Easter Chocolate (5-1) // 23%W
#3 Baby Gundin (2-1) // 14%W
#2 Miss Alex (8-1) // 12%W

Notes: The 32% win projection for Ballet School is the highest of any horse in the pick five sequence today, as is the 9-point spread between the top two contenders. This would be the most logical single, according to 1/ST BET. Her route pedigree and debut sprint rally certainly are positives for this trip. Well-bred rookie Queen Bourbon is overlooked by the algorithm for lack of data, though trainer Ian Wilkes rarely has one ready to rock first-time out.

#5 Ball Lightning (3-1) // 28%W
#2 Miss Tourista (8-1) // 24%W
#1 Atlantic Princess (6-1) // 11%W
#8 She Dazzle (10-1) // 11%W

Notes: The 28% win projection for Ball Lightning is second-highest in the pick five today, but the tight nature between the top 2 picks and the expansive 13-point gap to the third selection makes this a logical 2-deep race if you’re following the AI. Morning line chalk Successful Legacy (2-1) is 2-for-2 on turf and surprisingly dismissed by the algorithm at only a 9% win projection. You could make a case for inclusion on your ticket.

#3 Brice (5-1) // 27%W
#1 Shakem N Breakem (6-1) // 21%W
#8 Mozano (3-1) // 17%W
#2 Prequalified (8-1) // 11%W

Notes: Brice has been favored in 6 of his last 8 starts with only 1 win, so while he matches up well with this group, trusting him solo has been bad business. Shakem N Breaken has been a closer from the clouds in sprints and an unknown around 2 turns. Mozano figures to be effective at this class level and gets Antonio Gallardo back in the saddle, a winning combo in 2 of their last 3 pairings. A 3-deep ticket may cover this one as the AI stands against 2-1 ML favorite Silver Edge, who has hung in the stretch in 5 straight minor placings while well-bet.

RACE 9 (4:19 PM ET) // CLAIMING // 1 MILE (TURF)
#9 Silent Jet (5-2) // 23%W
#8 D’Craziness (6-1) // 18%W
#3 Regal Speaker (15-1) // 13%W
#6 Mayrhofen (15-1) // 11%W

Notes: This could be the single-or-spread decision to make in the pick five. Top 1/ST BET pick Silent Jet looks logical off a win vs. similar competition last out and has run well in both starts since arriving from Woodbine. Beyond that one, prices abound with the algorithm picks. Depending on your budget or (more importantly) your confidence in Silent Jet, the ball’s in your court for risk assessment.