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Sunday, March 07: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

by Al Cimaglia

March 7, 2021

Tonight, there are 12 races scheduled at Cal Expo with the first post coming at 5:50 EST. The 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 6. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Last night on the 13-race card five winners were on the lead turning for the wire. In the other eight races no winner was more
than 3 1/2 lengths from the lead at the top of the lane. Jacob Cutting lead the drivers with four winners. Cutting, Gordon Graham, Kathy Plested, and Nathalie Tremblay were the top conditioners with two trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

2-Shesureissomething (8-1)-This mare could be a rewarding play hitting the board in 7 of 9 with 2 wins at CalX. Stewart can put her in play from the start and could surprise at a solid price.
3-Rue Hanover (12-1)-Tossing last with the sluggish start when leaving from the 7-hole. But did pace the back half in 56.1 and Lackey could make the most of this post draw. Camera shy mare is worth a swing versus this crew.
4-Capitol Hill (4-1)-Plested trainee should be bet and drops to a spot to shine. Has been battling tougher and doesn't cash the top check very often. Using but not with a lot of confidence as is only 2 for the last 31.
7-Royal Mistress (6-1)-Drops, should like the company and could offer a square price. Did race a quick 2nd half in last and looks like a contender. The issue might be a smooth drive but has won 7 of 28 here and Anderson owns and trains.

Race 10

4-Exsqueezeme (2-1)-Program chalk gets that status because of cashing checks versus $8k claimers at Running Aces but is 4-13 at CalX. Tune-up on 2-27 was okay but has been off since 10-3. Should handle this group with close to a top effort.
7-Triple Thick Shake (10-1)-Willing to forgive last off a tough trip and previous was versus better. Could pop at a nice odds if Stewart provides a good steer and with a return to previous form.

Race 11

4-Buzz Light (7/5)-Drops to the basement and has the speed to win versus this kind but has looked disinterested. Offers no value but is tough to leave out as this might be the night to wake-up.
5-Blue Star Trooper (7/2)-Not sure what happened on 2-20 when stopped and was pulled up. The qualifier on 2-27 was okay and now drops. This is the same level as a previous picture on 12-11 which was the only win of the meet.
6-Native's Best Bet (8-1)-Drops after being used hard to get the top and stayed brave until fading down the lane. Could be forwardly placed here and short field won't hurt chances. Kennedy barn had an overdue win last night and may do the same here, at a price.

Race 12

4-Hi Ho Julio (9/5)-Win streak stopped at 4 when nipped at the wire after a big try last week from the 8-hole. Bumps up a notch but should be a major player again.
5-Outlaw Blue By You (4-1)-Drops to a better level, with this post Chappell could leave and land in the pocket behind Julio. Has the speed to beat this crew but one-move type needs to be close to the leader at the top of the lane and that could happen tonight.

My Ticket

Race 9) 2,3,4,7

Race 10) 4,7

Race 11) 4,5,6

Race 12) 4,5

Total Ticket Cost) = $9.60 for $0.20

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