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Sunday, March 28: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

by Al Cimaglia

March 28, 2021

Cal Expo has a 12-race card on tap with the 0.20 Pick 4 slated in Race 9. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

4-Sherwood (9/2)-The Graham barn is batting 27% in the last 30 days and this 5-year-old may fire hot off the bench. Qualifier on 3/21 was fine and had success at this level in the past. Should be a square price in a race without a standout.
5-Mr Steal Your Girl (12-1)-Swinging for a price in a scattered affair. Scicluna has driven well in the last few weeks and maybe he can hang around and make one big brush to roll by late down the lane.
6-Paddy Murphy (2-1)-Does drop but form has been dull. Pompano record is 1-11 and is only 3 for the last 39 but still rates as the program chalk, so that tells you something. Maybe Roland will be able to wake Paddy up.
8-Dance Traveler (6-1)-Hasn't had much success but was facing better. Gets off Lasix tonight and was Steward's choice over the 7. Has been competitive here hitting the board 8 times in 16 starts with 2 wins, using and the price should be right.

Race 10

3-Keystones Charles (6-1)-Dropped down to the basement, went off as the odds-on chalk and drew off by >4 lengths. Steps-up but the entire field has only 7 wins this year. Could be in line for an encore if upswing continues.
5-Waitin On A River (6-1)-Another who was facing better and hasn't been in this cheap since January. Anderson needs to find some live cover but from this post that could happen and lead to an overdue win.
8-In For The Chase (12-1)-Has had excuses in the last 2, before that beat this kind but it was from the rail. Should offer a big price and will use over the morning line chalk #6 who comes off a pair of scratches. Could surprise if the fractions are lively.
9-Ridonkuloso (8-1)-Makes the 1st start for Plano and the issue is if he can squeeze into a good early seat and then rally. If the pace is decent this 6-year-old should be rolling down the lane and Plano knows well.

Race 11

4-Dw'sblissfulthinkn (4-1)-Svendsen drives for consecutive times and this mare needs a sharp steer. Hasn't won in a long time but with some live cover and a decent pace this could be the night in a race devoid of form.
6-Haulin' Oats (2-1)-Looking for Plano to leave and fall into the pocket and get sucked around. If that trip comes about this 5-year-old could close the deal.

Race 12

2-Trashytonguetalker (3-1)-Makes the 3rd straight start in sequence and that hasn't happened since January. Should like the company and looks to be a major player with a clean trip.
5-Queenace Blue Chip (2-1)-Has been battling in some quick miles and gets the services of Roland tonight. Should get a smooth journey and has hit the board in 9 of 17 at CalX with 5 wins.

My Ticket

Race 9) 4,5,6,8

Race 10) 3,5,8,9

Race 11) 4,6

Race 12) 2,5

Total Ticket Cost) $12.80 for $0.20

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