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Saturday, April 03: Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies

by Jeff Siegel

April 3, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

Click here to view today’s Santa Anita Workout Report

Click to view our Wood Memorial S.-G2 Video Analysis

Click here to view our Blue Grass Stakes-G2 Video Analysis

Click here to view our Santa Anita Derby-G1 Video Analysis

RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Cinnte Winnte; 6-Shezaghost; 8-Crazy Speighty

Forecast: Cinnte Winnte attracts the stable’s preferred rider (U. Rispoli) for her U.S. debut and this Irish-bred 3-year-old filly – a promising runner-up in her only European outing before being sent to California – looks well-placed to graduate at 4-1 on the morning line. A first-time Lasix user with a series of better-than-looked recent main track workouts that should have her fit and ready, the P. Gallagher-trained filly earned a Timeform rating (80) last fall in Ireland that makes her capable of handling this assignment. Crazy Speighty shows rising speed figures with each outing for P. D’Amato, and despite her outside draw is the one to fear most. Sparingly raced, making just her fourth career start and her second off a long layoff, the daughter of Speightstown had a good recent sprint tune-up that should have her primed for a significant forward move on the stretch-out. Shezaghost adds blinkers, continues to work well and projects to have a strong pace presence. She’s another likely to improve with experience and is worth including at least as a back-up or a saver on your rolling exotic ticket.

RACE 2: Post: 12:33 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Pubilius Syrus; 4-Zestful; 6-Kershaw

Forecast: We’ll pass this race other than to use three in our rolling exotics without any real preference. Pubilius Syrus is guaranteed a good ground-saving, second flight trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home. A real pro and apparently fond of the Santa Anita main track (three starts, two wins, one second), the ex-classer is a prototype miler, having won four of five career outings at this exact distance. Zestful prefers the front-end going long and if he can inherit the role as the controlling speed he should be hard to catch. A winner of 10 races in 31 career starts, the Ghostzapper gelding can be hard to beat when he’s feeling good. Kershaw, claimed for $62,500 by P. Miller (off-the-charts stats with the first-off-the-claim angle), switches to F. Prat and looks to be the most dangerous of the closing types.

RACE 3: Post: 1:06 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-I Will Not; 3-Bedrock; 7-City Rage

Forecast: Here’s another spread affair, a first-level allowance turf sprint with several legitimate possibilities. I Will Not earned a career top speed figure when a sharp runner-up in a similar affair on the main track last month and should run just as well today over a turf course he’s won on in the past. The Square Eddie Colt has a good stalking trip that will afford him every chance when the pressure is turned on. City Rage, in the frame in each of his five most recent starts, is a three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course and is solid in the speed figure department. F. Prat fits him best, knows him well, and stays aboard. Bedrock overcame trouble to beat a much softer $25,000 claiming field over this course and distance in late February. He’s protected today in a sign of confidence and with clear sailing and some help up front should make some noise in the final furlong.

RACE 4: Post: 1:39 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Today’s Flavor; 4-Laurel River; 5-Bobby Bo; 7-Patron d’Oro

Forecast: This appears to be one of the strongest maiden special weight sprints for 3-year-olds in quite some time. We’ll go four deep with preference on top to Bobby Bo, the 9/5 morning line favorite who has trained like one of the best prospects in the loaded B. Baffert barn. The son of Speightster lands F. Prat and probably will be doing his best work from off the pace, and at this extended sprint trip he should have every opportunity to produce the last run. Stable mate Laurel River was disappointing in his debut last fall when bet down to 6/5, but he acts like a much better type now and it wouldn’t be surprising if the son of Into Mischief turns out to be the quickest of the quick. If he breaks running, he may never look back. Today’s Flavor has done everything required in the morning for the D. O’Neill barn and seems prepared for a monster performance first crack out of the box. We suspect he’ll get outrun early but then take hold late. Patron d’Oro flopped when well-backed in his debut, flashing good speed but then fading late to wind up a weary sixth. We suspect he’s much better than the race shows and is worth giving another look to, especially from his cozy outside draw. He’s 8-1 on the morning line and at that price is a “must use.”

RACE 5: Post: 2:14 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Going Global; 5-Royal Address; 6-Closing Remarks

Forecast: Royal Address offers good long shot value at 12-1 on the morning line in this year’s edition of the Providencia S.-G3 for 3-year-old fillies over nine furlongs on grass. Below her best when never landing a blow in the Sweet Life S.-G3 in her U.S. debut sprinting in mid-February, the N. Drysdale-trained filly seems certain to improve with that effort behind her and this stretch out in trip. The blinkers off angle is yet another positive factor, and recent workouts indicate the Irish-bred filly is set to produce a significant forward move. Going Global and Closing Remarks finished one-two in the recent China Doll S. over the local lawn and neither should have an issue with today’s extra furlong. There’s a four pound shift in the weights favoring Closing Remarks in addition to a sharp recent half mile workout, so we suspect the daughter of Vronsky will step forward in a big way. ‘Global is hard to fault; she’s won stakes races in both U.S. outings since being imported from the Ireland, retains F. Prat, and owns a wicked turn of foot that should make her hard to contain from the quarter pole home.

RACE 6: Post: 2:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Moraz; 2-Brilliant Cut

Forecast: The Santa Anita Oaks-G2 drew just five entrants, and each has a right to win. You may choose to buy the race for rolling exotic purposes or try to survive and advance by cutting your ticket down to one or two key horses. Let’s try the latter strategy using the inside two runners, Moraz, and Brilliant Cut. The former, a developing daughter of Empire Maker, is strong in the speed figure department and should find herself saving ground in a pace stalking/pressing position. ‘Cut, listed at 8-1 on the morning line, stretches out again and could become the controlling speed if her connections choose. She’s a fit on numbers and gives every indication in her workouts that she’s ready to step forward considerably.

RACE 7: Post: 3:32 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Rip City; 8-Coast of Roan

Forecast: Rip City is thoroughly genuine and consistent and at this nine furlong distance in a race that should produce comfortable early splits he could take control early and never look back. The City Zip gelding was more than five lengths clear of the rest when an excellent runner-up over a mile at this level last month in a race that produced a career top speed figure. Nothing much more will be needed today. Coast of Roan, a three-time winner over the local lawn, could be sent from the gate to make the running, or, more likely, draft in behind Rip City and stalk that one to the head of the lane. The James Street gelding is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli and after a brief freshening should be primed for a major effort.

RACE 8: Post: 4:15 PT Grade: B+
Use: 2-Dream Shake; 3-Rock Your World; 7-Medina Spirit

Forecast: Medina Spirit has won two of four career starts with both of his defeats courtesy of stable mate Life Is Good, who would have been an odds-on favorite in this year’s Santa Anita Derby-G1 had he been able to remain on the Triple Crown trail. With Life Is Good recuperating from a rear ankle chip, ‘Spirit can resume his winning ways, and from his cozy outside draw in a field without much pace projects to fold into an ideal pace-stalking trip outside and then take control when given his cue. Dream Shake, third in the same race that Medina Spirit just finished second In (the San Felipe S.-G2 won by Life Is Good), continues to train superbly while giving indication that he’s ready to produce another significant forwards move in just his third career start. The son of Twirling Candy should draft into a second flight, ground-saving, stalking position and then make his presence felt from the quarter pole home. Rock Your Worldis an extremely talented son of Candy Ride – he’s perfect in two starts including a sharp score in the Pasadena S. last month – and gives every indication that the longer they go, the better he’ll like it. But what we don’t know is whether he can transfer his superior grass form to today’s dirt surface. He’ll be a legitimate Kentucky Derby candidate if he can, but that’s a big if.

RACE 9: Post: 4:46 PT Grade: B+
Single: 3-Chrmaine’s Mia

Forecast: Charmaine’s Mia is on the verge of becoming the best middle distance turf performer in the North America among fillies and mares. Since joining the P. D’Amato barn, the five-year-old mare has registered back-to-back victories in graded stakes company, both performances earning speed figures that the others in this field simply can’t match. She continues to train in superb fashion, retains F. Prat, is comfortably drawn inside and can be placed just about anywhere her jockey wants her to be. At 8/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, the daughter of The Factor is a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 10: Post: 5:17 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Becca Taylor; 9-Pray for My Owner

Forecast: Becca Taylor is unbeaten in three starts and has the perfect stalking style for this extended sprint distance. She picks up F. Prat and appears quite capable of extending her winning streak in a field of state-bred sophomore fillies that doesn’t appear to be particularly strong. Pray for My Owner won at first asking in clever fashion while earning a speed figure that is one point better than Becca Taylor’s career top. Drawn comfortably outside and training well since raced, the daughter of Temple City should be stalking or pressing the pace throughout and be tough to catch if she can manufacture some separation when the field turns for home. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Becca Taylor.

RACE 11: Post: 5:48 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Almost a Factor; 4-A New Peace; 9-Nice Ice; 10-Lavender

Forecast: We’ll go four-deep in this competitive turf miler for entry-level allowance fillies and mares over a mile on turf while hoping to get a price home. In her present razor-sharp form, Nice Ice is the one to beat, having won three of her last four starts in strong fashion while using a pace-setting or pressing style. Similar tactics will be employed again and if she can get over from her nine-hole post without having to be sent hard the veteran mare seems likely to fire another winning shot. Lavender is the most dangerous of the closing types. Effective at any distance as long as there is sufficient pace to compliment her style, the J. Sadler-trained mare will get the patient ride she needs from U. Rispoli and will be heard from in the final stages. A New Peace is a progressive mare making just her sixth career start at age five. She’s a first-off-the-claim for S. Knapp (massively good stats with this angle) and, following a recent sharp workout, is protected in a sign of confidence. She’s better than her morning line of 20-1 suggests. Almost a Factor produced a visually pleasing performance when winning over this course in late January and has been kept on edge since with a healthy series of workouts. She can turn it on late and at 10-1 on the morning line is worth including somewhere on your ticket.

RACE 12: Post: 6:19 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-The Chosen Vron

Forecast: The Chosen Vron is simply better and faster than these – both of his outings were outstanding including when third to unbeaten and major Kentucky Derby-G1 contender Concert Tour in the San Vicente S.-G2 in early February – and with this return to state-bred company the son of Vronsky should have little difficulty regaining his winning form in this year’s edition of the Echo Eddie S. On pure speed figures he’s a standout and likely will go lower than his morning line of 8/5. The E. Kruljac-trained gelding is a logical rolling exotic single.