Log In

Al Cimaglia: Cal Expo Pick 4 Analysis-$25,000 Guaranteed Pool

by Al Cimaglia

April 11, 2021

Cal Expo has an 11-race card scheduled and the 0.20 Pick 4 starts in Race 8. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 16% takeout, and it will be my focus.

On Saturday night Rick Plano led the drivers with four pictures. Emilio Cisneros was the top trainer with two trips to the winner's circles. On the 10-race card, every winner except one was within three lengths of the leader at the 3/4 pole.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 8

5-Some Playa (5-1)-The Plano barn did well last weekend and this 10-year-old tried hard but couldn't hang on at 11-1. Thinking the plan could be different and will look to come off cover instead of racing on the lead.
7-Stanhope (5/2)-Comes off a game try from the 8-hole to cash a 3rd place check. Roland sticks and this time the journey shouldn't be as bumpy.
9-To The Limit (6-1)-Svendsen's pick over #8 and is another who comes off a tough trip. The Plested barn has been cold but this veteran should be rolling down the lane and would benefit from a solid pace. That could happen as the 6 and 7 may blast out.

Race 9

2-Cowboys Dirtyboots (15-1)-Even effort in last but was off since 3-6 and draws inside so will use for those two reasons. Stewart could get sucked around and there could be a few leavers to make for an honest pace.
4-Outlaw Blue By You (7/2)-Kerwood steers as Svendsen stayed true to Johnson and drives #6. Stayed inside last week but when good has shown the ability to pass similar down the lane.
5-I'm An Athlete (2-1)-Beaten chalk now makes his 3rd start since a double scratch and last was better. Did race the back half in 56.3 and meets a field with little form.
6-Almost Cut My Hair (8-1)-Even effort at this class last time but was off for almost a month. Svendsen has taken a picture in the past and should be tighter tonight. Will need a big effort but is not alone. The entire field hasn't had recent success at this level.

Race 10

1-Senseless Beauty (5-1)-Has been closing well but needs to be in striking range at the top of the lane. Cutting will be steering for the 3rd straight time. Might be closer to the lead tonight and then use one nice move to roll by.
3-Three Grand (3-1)-This 5-year-old hasn't won at CalX and is 0-26 in 20-21. But did race the back half in 56.3 to finish 4th and now makes the 3rd start for the Schneider barn. Looking for the upswing to continue in a race that's difficult to decipher.

Race 11

1-Catchmeinadream (3-1)-Comes off a pair of 3rd place finishes and now makes the 4th start off the bench. There isn't much gate speed in this field and Kerwood could be on the point or in the pocket behind #6 and trip out. This pilot did have 3 wins on Saturday.
6-Cal's Hope (5-1)-Faded down the lane last week but may not have to work hard to get a cozy seat. Best to respect beaten chalk and has notched 2 recent wins at this level.
7-Liveonadreneline (4-1)-Dropped in for a tag in last but lost all chance after breaking stride at the start. Before that was a winner in 3 straight, and the Graham barn keeps rolling. Roland takes a seat for the 1st time and that shouldn't hurt chances.

My Ticket

Race 8) 5,7,9

Race 9) 2,4,5,6

Race 10) 1,3

Race 11) 1,6,7
Total Ticket Cost) $14.40 for $0.20

Check me out on Twitter!