October 26, 2018
SEVEN FURLONGS, NOT SIX
by Bob Neumeier, Horse Player Now
ANALYSIS: Should an extra one-eighth of a mile offer any consequence? It could. Crackerjack sprinters like CHALON, KIRBY’S PENNY, SKYE DIAMONDS and STORMY EMBRACE have never won a race at seven furlongs. Is this the time these gals will break through and win at this demanding distance in the Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Sprint? Methinks not. This event BEGS for an off-the-pace type and a proper trip will likely provide the best outcome. Since MARLEY’S FREEDOM drew unlucky Post 13, the prize may go to GOLDEN MISCHIEF in Post 5. With glowing clocker reports and Brad Cox on the scene, this horse could be overbet off a 10/1 ML.
MAIN CONTENDERS: The oddsmaker has set MARLEY’S FREEDOM at 8/5, but the obvious danger here is a wide trip from her outside post. GOLDEN MISCHIEF opens at 10/1 but that price seems like a pipedream. How about 4/1? The trainers of both horses - Bob Baffert (MARLEY’S FREEDOM) and Brad Cox (GOLDEN MISCHIEF) are respected and will be backed heavily in the Win pool.
VALUE PLAYS: If you are a fan of the ‘horses-for-courses’ angle, welcome FINLEY’SLUCKYCHARM, who sports an amazing six wins in seven starts at cushy Churchill Downs. She has drawn favorably (Post 11) and should be in the early mix. CHALON should be included in all gimmick wagers, despite her failure to win at seven furlongs.
WAGERING STRATEGY ($100):