by Xpressbet
October 26, 2018
Get the Full Xpressbet Breeders' Cup Wager Guide
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by Nick Luck, NBC Sports
ANALYSIS: The $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf draws a superbly representative field from Europe and the USA. Clearly, race build up revolves around dual Arc de Triomphe heroine ENABLE, who will deservedly be an odds-on favorite. Much discussion will center on a trends-based analysis that boasts that no horse ever has won the Arc and BC Turf in the same season. Given that no fewer than 12 horses to compete in the Arc have subsequently been successful, this can be seen as reductive analysis and one that should have limited basis when assessing ENABLE’S chance in this race on this day. It is more sensible to focus on whether she can show her true superiority over this group, and whether ground, pace and track variables will affect her chances. Interestingly, given her light and interrupted 2018 campaign, her trainer John Gosden believes she can move forward off the Arc.
MAIN CONTENDERS: Trainer Andre Fabre saddles last year’s winner TALISMANIC and Arc fourth WALDGEIST. TALISMANIC has not sparkled since a poor run in the Dubai World Cup. WALDGEIST, who raced against the bias in the Arc and didn’t get the clearest of runs, is much preferred, especially over soggy ground. Aidan O’Brien’s 3-year-old filly MAGICAL - like his previous sophomore filly and BC Turf winner Found - is peaking at the right time. CHANNEL MAKER reacted well to positive tactics at Belmont and offers hope for a podium finish for the home team.
VALUE PLAYS: ENABLE is a star, but she might not be as invincible as last year. She enjoyed a perfect Arc trip under a brilliant ride. There may be some mileage in trying to dig out a few to better her on the day. Exactas shunning her will pay huge.
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