by Jerry Shottenkirk
March 27, 2020
It’s Mandatory Payout Day in the Rainbow 6 Saturday at Gulfstream Park, and it’s appropriate that it's on a standout card that ends with the Grade 1 Florida Derby.
Here’s a look at the suggested ticket, which amounts to a $72 cost.
Race 9: Sand Spring Stakes - 3:34PM ET
Using: #2 Zofelle (IRE), #5 Newspaperofrecord (IRE), #7 Getmotherarose
Analysis: Newspaperofrecord (9/5) at one time looked unbeatable, and then she became beatable. Saying she has a class advantage is an understatement – the filly is a Breeders’ Cup winner. Despite not having run since July, she’s likely be very tough on the front end. Zofelle (9/2) won her first U.S. races after running in Great Britain. Her win streak came to an end in the Stall Memorial last month at Fair Grounds. She has a terrific late move and could benefit from a fast pace. Getmotherarose (6/1) won the Honey Fox over this course last time out, rallies well and has a legit chance to take it in the closing strides.
Race 10: Orchid Stakes - 4:17PM ET
Using: #2 Kelsey’s Cross, #5 Gentle Ruler, #6 Mean Mary, #12 Elizabeth Way (IRE)
Analysis: One of the toughest of the day, and after 1 3-8 miles on the turf, there will be some winded fillies and mares. Kelsey’s Cross (10/1) was unsuccessful in two at Gulfstream and then was a closing third in the Hillsborough at Tampa Bay. Florent Geroux has twice been aboard this filly and was third in each. She’ll be a late threat if he runs back to her last one. Gentle Ruler (7/2) is a must-use, having won six of her last seven. The only strike against her is that she hasn’t raced since October. She still might be good enough. Mean Mary (3/1) has won three of five – three of four on the turf – and only gets better with distance. Won both local tries. Elizabeth Way (9/2) drew the No. 12 post, which is not a good thing going this distance, but her two U.S. starts have resulted in wins. She led gate to wire in her latest but came from far back in her first.
Race 11: Gulfstream Park Oaks - 4:49PM ET
Using: #4 Lake Avenue, #5 Spice Is Nice, #9 Tonalist’s Shape
Analysis: Tonalist’s Shape (5/2) has been terrific in winning all five career starts, including graded events in her last two. Has tactical speed and just keeps going once she hits the stretch. Lake Avenue (9/2) tired in her latest but won on the front end in two earlier at Aqueduct. Spice Is Nice (3/1) broke her maiden by 12 and followed with a bang-up second to Tonalist’s Shape last out.
Race 12: Pan American Stakes - 5:26PM ET
Using: #1 Channel Cat, #9 Zulu Alpha
Analysis: Channel Cat (9/2) just didn’t fire in the Pegasus World Cup Turf, finishing 10th behind Zula Alpha, but at this distance, he should be much closer to the lead, and he’s usually effective under such scenarios. Zula Alpha (3/5) was outstanding in his Pegasus Turf win and follow with a tremendous rally and victory in the Mac Diarmida. He’s 7 years old and he probably has not been better. Probably didn’t write the book on the term “turn of foot,” but you’d have to look hard to see another as good as he is when he winds up.
Race 13: Appleton Stakes - 6:00PM ET
Using: #4 Ballagh Rocks, #5 Maraud, #7 Social Paranoia, #9 Louder Than Bombs, #10 Sombeyay
Analysis: This is a pick ‘em, and Sombeyay (7/2) probably comes off the best effort when he won the Canadian Turf, but that doesn’t mean he’s any kind of cinch. He’ll have to overcome his outside post but is certainly usable. Of the others, Louder Than Bombs (15/1) might have the best chance to deliver when it comes to price. He was early 50-1 when he closed for third in the Canadian Turf, beaten by three-quarters of a length by Sombeyay. Ballagh Rocks (6/1), Maraud (10/1) and Social Paranoia (10/1) also have legit chances and none of those would be a major surprise.
Race 14: Florida Derby - 6:35PM ET
Using: #7 Tiz the Law
Analysis: Tiz the Law (6/5) is the single here, and his win in the Holy Bull Stakes could’ve been the best effort by a 3-year-old this year. He brought his record to three-for-four when he took the Holy Bull and moved himself to the top of his class.
Here’s the suggested play in Gulfstream Park’s Rainbow 6 mandatory payout on Saturday:
Race 9: #2 Zofelle, #5 Newspaperofrecord, #7 Getmotherarose
Race 10: #2 Kelsey’s Cross, #5 Gentle Ruler, #6 Mean Mary, #12 Elizabeth Way
Race 11: #4 Lake Avenue, #5 Spice Is Nice, #9 Tonalist’s Shape
Race 12: #1 Channel Cat, #9 Zulu Alpha
Race 13: #4 Ballagh Rocks, #5 Maraud, #7 Social Paranoia, #9 Louder Than Bombs, #10 Sombeyay
Race 14: #7 Tiz the Law
20-cent Rainbow 6 ticket: 2-5-7 with 2-5-6-12 with 4-5-9 with 1-9 with 4-5-7-9-10 with 7 ($72).