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Jeff Siegel: Saratoga Picks & Analysis | Sunday, August 15

by Jeff Siegel

August 15, 2021

Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.

The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.). For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:05 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Good Skate; 8-Silipo

Forecast: Good Skate chased straight maidens in his debut, earning an okay speed figure when finishing a non-threatening fifth. What is concerning, though, is his failure to change leads despite repeated and aggressive efforts by I. Ortiz, Jr. to make him switch. Maybe L. Saez will have better luck today. This maiden $50,000 claimer for juveniles in a considerably softer spot, so with the addition of blinkers for a barn that has solid stats with second-time starters the son of American Freedom may have found his friends. The best of the newcomers could be Silipo, a son of Candy Ride that is realistically spotted for a good try first crack out of the box. Not the best of movers but training well enough to expect a decent effort against this group, the R. Astras-trained gelding lands the cozy outside post and projects to be well-placed with every chance. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with a great deal of confidence.

RACE 2: Post: 1:41 ET Grade: B-
Use: 8-Street Vendor; 9-Kiss the Sky; 10-Flip the Script

Forecast: Kiss the Sky was more than three lengths clear of the rest when second in his debut in a representative maiden juvenile turf router at Ellis Park last month and seems likely to produce a significant forward move with that effort behind him. The M. Maker barn has solid stats with the second-time starter angle, so unless there’s a better-than-average newcomer in this field the son of Twirling Candy should be set to earn his diploma. Flip the Script, certainly bred for grass (Temple City), finished a non-threatening third in an off-the-turf sprint at Belmont Park last month. Under the circumstances, it wasn’t a bad try for a colt who surely should improve with today’s much more favorable conditions. L. Saez stays aboard for T. Albertrani, whose record with second-time starters is decent enough. The first-timer Street Vendor, a $500,000 yearling purchase by Nyquist, comes from the T. Pletcher barn but hasn’t done anything particularly noteworthy in the a.m. He should, however, be fit enough under J. Rosario to make his presence felt in an open fray at 6-1 on the morning line.

RACE 3: Post: 2:15 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Social Whirl; 10-Herald Angel

Forecast: We’ll try to survive and advance using just two in this challenging restricted (nw-2) $40,000 claiming turf sprint for fillies and mares, but the best advice is to use as many as your budget allows. Herald Angel, listed on the morning line at 9/2, shows up in a seller for the first time and projects to enjoy a good stalking trip from her far outside post position. Though she won a straight maiden in gate-to-wire fashion, the daughter of Exaggerator might enjoy stalking tactics just behind the need-the-leads that are drawn inside. At this level, she should be able capitalize on that type of trip for the high percentage M. Maker/I. Ortiz, Jr. trainer-jockey combo. Social Whirl earned a career top speed figure when graduating over this course and distance vs. maiden $40,000 foes last month. She took heat and then drew clear late in good style, and while another forward move likely will be required today the daughter of Freud seems to be a progressive sort and is worth using at 5-1 on the morning line.

RACE 4: Post: 2:49 ET Grade: X
Single: Water’s Edge

Forecast: Water’s Edge is 50 cents on the dollar on the morning line after crushing a good maiden field with a huge speed figure in his second career start last month at Belmont Park. Simply stated, the New York-bred son of Candy Ride will win by himself if he achieves a similar number today. The rail is always a concern but if he leaves cleanly the D. Donk-trained colt should be on or near the lead and then go on with it when asked. He’s a no-value, rolling exotic single in a race that is otherwise unplayable.

RACE 5: Post: 3:21 ET Grade:
Single: 4-Jester Calls Nojoy

Forecast: There are some nice fillies in this race – Knowing Glance and Tap N Glo already have shown legitimate ability in the afternoon – but Jester Calls Nojoy has done the type of work in the a.m. that stamps her as an exceptional prospect. Listed in our Clocker’s “Primed and Ready” list a couple of weeks ago, the T. Pletcher-trained juvenile has displayed intense speed leading up to her debut, breezing in every workout and always finishing with something in reserve. Her two recent gate works, both in company, were especially impressive and could have earned much faster times if she hadn’t had the proverbial piano in her mouth every step of the way. With a clean break (as she’s done in the morning), the daughter of Maclean’s Music should take control early and never look back, so at 7/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.

RACE 6: Post: 3:55 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Write This Down; 3-Black Licorice

Forecast: Write This Down walked out of the gate and then produced a willing late bid to wind up third in a similar maiden $40,000 affair over seven furlongs in late June at Belmont Park. More importantly, she was claimed by R. Atras, who brings her back in an abbreviated sprint with a healthy series of recent workouts that should her set for a significant forward move. With the first-off-the-claim angle, Atras hits at a remarkable 34% with a massive ROI, so the question isn’t whether this Frosted filly will improve, but rather by how much. Black Licorice returns off a long layoff – she’s been gone since last October – and could easily be a better type this time around after finishing far back with a rough trip in a maiden special weight race. The work tab looks good for M. Maker, who employs his “go to” rider T. Gaffalione, so at 5-1 on the morning line she’s a “must use.” These are the two we’ll be including in a wide open affair in which nothing would surprise. If you feel the need to throw in a few more, go right ahead.

RACE 7: Post: 4:29 ET Grade:
Use: 5-Mira Mission; 7-Never Explain; 8-Treason

Forecast: Never Explain and Mira Mission, two-three finishers in a similar entry-level allowance affair, meet again in this nine-furlong inner turf course event. ‘Mission had a rough trip in that race, lacking room at the critical stage of the stretch run, but with clear sailing today he should be capable of producing a winning late kick. ‘Explain overcame a wide trip to vie for the lead midway and then stayed on gamely; the Street Sense colt was making just his fourth career start and certainly can be capable of stepping forward again. Treason was as a clever debut winner at Belmont Park in June but didn’t get the best of trips when unplaced in his next outing in a tough affair the following month. Today’s extra furlong should allow for softer early fractions and enable the son of Constitution to secure a good second flight trip. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and is worth including on your ticket at that price.

RACE 8: Post: 5:05 ET Grade: B
Use: 2-Subsidiary; 4-Mongolian Humor; 7-Absolute Love

Forecast: Absolute Love has won her last pair and three out of her last four starts, and even better than that she makes her first since being claimed by R. Atras, who hits at 34% with a powerful ROI with the first-off-the-claim angle. She’s been primarily a two-turn specialist throughout her career, but this turn back to an extended sprint shouldn’t be an issue, nor should the one-level raise in class to the $16,000 claiming ranks. Mongolian Humor, an easy winner over this track and distance for $12,500 last month, moves up a level following a claim for new trainer R. Diodoro, who like Atras shows spectacular stats with this maneuver (26% with powerful flat-bet profit). The daughter of Drosselmeyer projects to settle in mid-pack and then blast home, just as she did last time. Subsidiary is a route-to-sprint class dropper being reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., and has the kind of early speed that makes her dangerous at this level. You have to use her somewhere.

RACE 9: Post: 5:39 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tuscan Queen; 7-Goin’ Good; 8-Bye Bye

Forecast: The Galway S., a listed affair for sophomore fillies sprinting on turf, has several possibilities in the 10-runner field. Finding the favorite may be just as difficult as finding the winner. Tuscan Queen, listed at 6-1 on the morning line, looked quite good breaking her maiden over this course and distance last month, doing so with an exceptional turn of foot from the top of the lane to the wire that produced a more than four length victory. The number was strong, so while this clearly is a tougher spot the daughter of Street Boss could be up to the task at a nice price. Goin’ Good has won her last pair while pressing the pace and then finding more under pressure close home. A versatile sort who has won on grass and over a sloppy track, the B. Cox-trained daughter of Congrats can be counted on for another honest effort and must be used, though her speed figures aren’t any better than several of these. Bye Bye disappointed a bit when failing to stay a mile after making the running in the Wild Applause S. on grass at Belmont Park in mid-June, but after a couple of months of freshening and a turn back to an abbreviated sprint the daughter of Into Mischief could easily snap back to winning form. J. Rosario should have in the second flight, ready to pounce. We’ll try to get by using just these three in rolling exotic play with the gamble at the price going to Tuscan Queen.

RACE 10: Post: 6:13 ET Grade: C+
Use: 3-Summer in the City; 5-Mirabell Mei; 10-Sengekontacket; 12-Italian Twin

Forecast: The nightcap is an inscrutable middle distance inner turf claimer for fillies and mares. Spread as deeply as you can. Sengekontacket, a first-off-the-claim play for capable C, Summers, switches to J. Rosario and may improve enough to produce a winning late kick. She has several back numbers that are par for this level, so at 8-1 on the morning line she represents a decent price in a field loaded with possibilities. Italian Twin is hung far outside in post position 12 but has shown a good late kick on occasion and with some help up front could make some noise in the final furlong at 6-1 on the morning line. Summer in the City, freshened for two months and exiting a pair of tougher starter’s allowance events, retains I. Ortiz, Jr. and has enough tactical speed to secure a good stalking trip and then have every chance from there. Mirabell Mei has numbers that fit and is another with a dangerous late kick, though she’s never run particularly well (in three starts) over the Saratoga lawn.