XB Blog

10.4.2026:

Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Exotics Price Players | Sunday, October 4, 2026

By Jeremy Plonk

Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.Form held Saturday of Fall Stars Weekend as the stakes-laden card saw no winners above 6-1 odds until the stakes passed and the finale was won at 9-1. Double-digit horses were hard to come by and Sunday lines up similarly in my early handicapping.Race 3:#6 City of Life (12-1 ML) – Last-out maiden breaker from Ellis Park, a circuit off to a better-than-usual start to the Keeneland Fall Meet, is my second choice behind favorite #8 Terrapin Station and could add exacta juice if not able to upset. He’s by City of Light a fantastic Kee dirt sire who won 32% with his offspring on the dirt here over the past 3 meets. This 4-year-old old takes on mostly 3-year-olds today.Race 4:#6 Barrel Roll (12-1 ML) – Tabbed third by me in this 2-year-old maiden route on dirt off a field-splitting fifth in his Saratoga sprint debut. The runaway winner he chased, American History, came back to win yesterday’s Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity. Use with #4 Damavand and ##7 Belzoni in the exotics.Race 5:#3 Murdock (15-1 ML) – I like #4 Mountain Bear here as one of my best bets on the card, but the price horse next door that an really help the tris and supers in this full-field turf sprint is Murdock He’s drawn beautifully for a top-notch turf sprint trainer in Larry Rivelli and is 1-for-1 over the course with an allowance win here in April. Excuse that last at unpredictable Kentucky Downs and the case looks stronger.

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10.4.2026:

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Spot Plays | Sunday, October 4, 2026

By Xpressbet

Northfield Park has a 15-race card featuring Ohio Sires Stakes Championships. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 11. The Spot Plays are in Race 11, Race 12, Race 13. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)6-Hilltpop Sonar (4-1)-Skimmed the pegs and picked up a win at Dayton and will need a big try versus this kind but can compete here. Has the gate speed to land in an up-close seat, perhaps a pocket ride. My take is the morning line price is too low and could be overlooked. Driver Chris Page needs to be sharp and if so, could surprise at a solid price.6-5-1Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)5-Wicked Character (9-1)-Will take a swing with Aaron Merriman on a Ron Burke veteran who can leave as fast as the gate car. Has hit the board in 8 of 14 with 6 pictures at Nfld. This might not be 1st time Merriman but it his 1st time driving in some time, and he posts 33% winners for this outfit. The prices is right to use on top and in gimmicks. Could provide some pop for the Pick 4 sequence.8-1-2Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)8-Disgruntled Carl (7/2)-Beat this kind in last, left from post 7 and dropped to the back of the pack. Didn't rush to get going, then rolled the back half in 55.4, and drew off despite a wide trip. Toyed with the last field and now draws further out, but that shouldn't be an issue if comes with the same effort.8-9-7Check me out on X!

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10.4.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Belmont and Santa Anita Spot Plays | Sunday, October 4, 2026

By Scott Shapiro

After a Super Saturday that saw dominant victories from a pair of talented juveniles in U.S.S. Valor and Hughes, there is another big day of thoroughbred action across the world. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe is the headliner overseas and Keeneland has a pair of Breeders’ Cup win and you’re in events, but do not snooze on the cards at Belmont and Santa Anita Park. Here are a pair of horses I like at each venue to close the racing week.Belmont Race 5:My first play of the day comes in this $110k allowance event at 1 1/16-miles over the main track where I landed on #5 Tip Top Thomas. The son of Volatile has raced twice as a 4YO for trainer Todd Pletcher, including last out in the Forego (G1) where he set the pace while taking pressure throughout from his inside draw leading to a disappointing fifth-place finish. Pletcher opts to stretch Tip Top Thomas back out in distance to a configuration that should accentuate his strengths. He was at his best last year in 1 1/16-miles races at two-turns and at the one-turn mile at Aqueduct, so the one-turn 8.5-furlong run at Belmont Park should be perfect. The $160k FTK October ’23 purchase needs to avoid getting caught up in an early battle, but if he does, he should make his first trip to the winner’s circle in 2026.Play: #5 Tip Top Thomas (3-1 ML)Picks: 5-3-6Belmont Race 7:There is a serious lack of early speed signed on in this state-bred first-level allowance event at 1 1 1/16-miles over the Belmont sod. I am hopeful it is #4 Silly Season who takes advantage. The daughter of Constitution makes her fifth lifetime start for trainer Chad Brown after being mid-pack throughout in a common race with many of her rivals on September 3 won on the front end by a lone speed runner. Brown added the blinkers two starts back and it has led to improved speed from this Lawrence Golchman homebred. If jockey Sammy Marin opts to use his filly’s tactical speed and the fact she draws inside others that are likely to attempt to prominent early, he should have plenty left late exiting a pair of nine-furlong races at Saratoga. The fact Brown also sends out 5-2-ML favorite #8 Factory Setting should help our price.Play: #4 Silly Season (5-1 ML)Picks: 4-6-8Santa Anita Race 8:This first-level allowance for fillies and mares at one-mile over the Santa Anita lawn kicks off the $3 15% takeout late Pick 3 and appears quite playable if #5 Delightful Laura goes off at or below her 2-1-ML price. Sure, the Uncle Mo filly has a chance to control the pace, but she has before and has been unable to seal the deal other than against $62,500 maiden claimers in August ‘25. She also has not raced since February making her vulnerable despite getting a major rider upgrade to Juan Hernandez. I will try to run her and the rest of the field down late with #7 Hannah Buckle. Trainer John Sadler is off to a great start to the Autumn Meet striking with 3 of 9 runners thus far for a $4.82 ROI. The veteran conditioner claimed this 5YO mare from Leonard Powell off a win against similar at Del Mar in early August. She should be finishing strong once again under jockey Armando Ayuso.Play: #7 Hannah Buckle (9-2 ML)Picks: 7-1-4Santa Anita Race 10:My final play of the day comes in this six-furlong dash over the turf for state-bred 2YO MSW fillies where I will try second-time starter #6 Bel Air Blintzcess. The daughter of Eight Rings debuted on August 30 in a five-furlong event over the Del Mar grass where she got out of the gate slow and was up against it from there in a race dominated by those who were prominent in the early stages. Trainer Mark Glatt retains the services of Emisael Jaramillo as he stretches this filly out a furlong after the disappointing sixth-place finish on debut. Hopefully, the strong front running Jaramillo can get her out of the gate in better order after gaining invaluable racing experience last out. Her 6-1-ML offering makes her worth a gamble in the Sunday finale.Play: #6 Bel Air Blintzcess (6-1 ML)Picks: 6-2-9

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10.4.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Sunday, October 4, 2026

By Xpressbet

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10.3.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Saturday, October 3, 2026

By Xpressbet

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10.3.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Woodbine Money-Back Special Selections / Analysis | Saturday, October 3, 2026

By Scott Shapiro

Today is a monster day of meaningful thoroughbred action with stakes-laden cards across the country, as well as north of the border in Canada. Yes, that is right, in addition to the big cards at Belmont, Keeneland, and Santa Anita, there are four graded stakes races in succession up at Woodbine Race Track led by the Canadian International (G1). To celebrate the big day for one of our partners, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are running a Money-Back Special offer on all four stakes. Just register for the new promotion and receive a refund of your first Win bet up to $10 if the horse you bet to Win finishes second or third. Here is how I am approaching the four stakes events.Race 6: Dance Smartly (G2)There is a noticeable lack of early speed signed on in this year’s Dance Smartly, so being prominently placed appears to be a tactical advantage. #2 Power of Destiny was never going to attempt to make the lead last out in the Canadian (G2) due to the presence of Lupa drawn to the inside, but should have no issue making the front in this spot under jockey Ryan Munger. The 5YO mare was also competing off just ten days rest in her last start, but comes in fresh today having not raced since mid-August. Given the insurance of the Money-Back Special and the likely race shape, Power of Destiny appears to be a solid consideration to kick off the Saturday stakes action.Play: #2 Power of Destiny (10-1 ML)Picks: 2-5-1Race 7: Algonquin (G3)#2 Lou’s Room is not the likeliest winner of this five-furlong event over the Inner Turf, but the promotion makes him worth serious consideration at his 10-1-ML offering. This son of Epicenter debuted against rival #6 Excessif at Colonial Downs with the latter having the advantage of a race at Saratoga under his belt. In that first start, Lou’s Room was shuffled back during the middle stages losing position and a few lengths before showing some grit to re-rally and lose by three lengths in the end. The George Weaver trainee was unable to seal the deal in his next start two weeks later at Saratoga, but finished second beaten a neck under jockey Manny Franco. Weaver is 4 for 14 when shipping horses to Canada dating back to 2023 and this colt should sit a perfect pocket trip under Sahin Civaci.Play: #2 Lou’s Room (10-1 ML)Picks: 2-4-5Race 8: Nearctic (G2)#5 Gas Me Up enters this six-furlong affair for 3YOs+ over the grass having competed in two-turn turf races in his last four starts. He won the King Edward (G2) by a nose, so it is difficult for me to fault trainer Kevin Attard for the decision, but I always thought this gelding was best served as a late running turf sprinter. Perhaps that is because his effort in the Joe Hernandez (G2) was eye-popping last December, but regardless I am looking forward to seeing him come with a huge late run again over this turf course. Attard finds a strong spot for the six-time winner who should get an honest pace to chase.Play: #5 Gas Me Up (2-1 ML)Picks: 5-2-4Race 9: Canadian International (G1)This year’s Canadian International is expected to be bet as somewhat of a three-horse race between #1 Arabian Crown, #3 Purrview, and #5 Ancient Egypt. I lack a strong opinion other than that one will very likely cross the wire first, but I give the slight nod to Ancient Egypt. Of the three European invaders, this son of Frankel has a race in North America already under his belt. The Charlie Johnston conditioned colt broke a bit flat-footed from his inside draw at Saratoga in the Christophe Clement (G1), settled off a slow pace, and then moved wide into the lane before flattening out. He had put in two strong runs in Europe prior that run in New York and should rebound in a big way after gaining the invaluable experience in mid-August. Regular rider David Egan is set to get the leg up once again.Play: #5 Ancient Egypt (2-1 ML)Picks: 5-1-3

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10.3.2026:

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Spot Plays | Saturday, October 3, 2026

By Al CImaglia

Woodbine Mohawk Park has a loaded 15-race card with Grass Roots Finals featuring 2-and 3-year olds as the headliners. The Spot Plays are in Race 4, Race 7, and Race 10. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 4 (7:52 PM EDT)3-Bulldog Belle (4-1)-There are a bunch of Bulldog Hanover 2-year-olds in this affair, and this one isn't at the top of the class yet but has been getting better. Will stake a swing at a square price and does have enough gate speed so Tyler Borth will be able to work a smooth trip. The inside draw suits its style and has the ability to take a picture versus this field.3-6-4Race 7 (9:01 PM EDT)6-Another Great Mass (5-1)-Posted a sharp win 2 back and didn't get a friendly trip. Paid off at every ounce of 12-1 that night and now draws a choice post. The 9-hole trip took its toll in last, and should offer another nice price. Trevor Henry can get a good early seat, as there isn't much gate speed to the inside. Will look for a big try, has won 5 of 20 starts at Mohawk and it appears to have found another gear lately.6-4-5Race 10 (10:10 PM EDT)8-Sugar Man (5/2)-The post draw will help the price. Comes off a 2nd place finish to Erwin Hanover in last and that is nothing to be embarrassed about. Since shipping in 3 back and returning to the Dave Menary barn, the Papi Rob 4-year-old hasn't missed hitting the board and has 1 win. Can leave as fast as the gate car and James MacDonald should have in a position to win at the top of the lane.8-2-3Check me out on X!

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10.2.2026:

Matt Bernier: One for the Money | Keeneland's First Lady | Saturday, October 3, 2026

By Jeremy Plonk

Saturday’s First Lady at Keeneland may end up being the most competitive stakes event of the meeting outside the Breeders’ Cup, with eleven fillies and mares set to battle over the mile distance in Lexington, Kentucky. This year’s First Lady is as difficult a handicapping puzzle as you’ll find, with legitimate cases to be made for at least 75% of the field to come out on top. Annoyingly, my only advice is this: unless you absolutely love a horse, don’t “settle” on a short price. This race is far too salty to settle on a 2-1 or 3-1 shot; don’t be afraid to go out on a limb with a price in a spot like this.Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the runners scheduled to compete in the G1 First Lady as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.1 – Pin Up Betty / 2% / 49-12 – Lush Lips / 11% / 8-13 – Mandanaba / 11% / 8-14 – Expensive Queen / 14% / 6-15 – And One More Time / 8% / 12-16 – Deep Satin / 6% / 16-17 – Love You Anyway / 3% / 32-18 – Segesta / 14% / 6-19 – Classic Q / 11% / 8-110 – Bless the Broken / 14% / 6-111 – Vina Arana / 6% / 16-1There are a million ways this analysis could begin; let’s start, though, with the runners who dead-heated for the win in the G1 Jenny Wiley here in the spring – SEGESTA (8) and EXPENSIVE QUEEN (4). Segesta is a track specialist, owning a record of 3-2-1-0 in three starts over Keeneland’s turf. The knock on the five-year-old mare, however, is her recent form. While still competitive against good company in New York over the summer, it’s fair to wonder if Segesta has regressed some over the course of 2026. If that’s the case, she’s probably settling for a minor award on Saturday.Expensive Queen, on the other hand, is a bit of an unknown commodity in the First Lady. After the dead heat here in April, the daughter of Lope de Vega went to the sidelines and hasn’t been seen in a race since. Now, off a six-month layoff, the Brendan Walsh trainee will need to put her best foot forward in order to have her picture taken in the Keeneland winner’s circle for the third time in three races locally. She’s a major threat, but another where price must be your guide.LUSH LIPS (2) and MANDANABA (3) are drawn just to the inside of Expensive Queen, and they both represent reasonable win candidates, too. Lush Lips has run just once since a victory at Gulfstream Park in February, but she’s already a grade one winner at Keeneland, having taken the Queen Elizabeth II Cup here last fall as a three-year-old. Her best races make her a serious threat to win this event.The same can be said for Mandanaba, who finished a solid second in a group two event in Germany as a precursor to a start on Saturday. Trained by Francis Graffard, the four-year-old filly will be making her second stateside start of 2026 following a decent second in the G1 Just a Game at Saratoga during Belmont Stakes weekend. All in all, I didn’t think the trip was too bad for Mandanaba that day; pocketed up throughout, perhaps hemmed in a bit at the top of the lane…but then Classic Q floated more than a path off the rail and Mandanaba simply couldn’t fire through. She’s a threat on her best, but her best is probably necessary.Speaking of CLASSIC Q (9) – she could be the speed-of-the-speed in the First Lady, a designation that is always dangerous. Her win in the Just a Game is clearly the best she’s ever run, and she’ll need a repeat performance if she’s going to take top honors in the First Lady on Saturday. She can win, but I chose to go with the horse who defeated her on the square when the two tangled at Kentucky Downs last month.BLESS THE BROKEN (10) has run on turf only once in her fifteen-race career, but that turf try resulted in a victory over Classic Q and others in the G2 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf on September 5. Sent off at 8-1 odds that day, the daughter of Laoban didn’t look especially strong around the bend but eventually found her best stride over the final quarter mile, kicking away from her contemporaries with relative ease. The flat mile at Keeneland is far from an apples-to-apples comparison, but I’m inclined to believe that her finish over the rise at Kentucky Downs will translate nicely to the turf in Lexington. I’m hopeful that Brian Hernandez, Jr. can have Bless the Broken in a tracking position down the backside before taking his shot at the pacemakers around the far turn.THE PICKS: 10-4-8-2THE PLAY: 10) BLESS THE BROKEN TO WIN AT ODDS OF 6-1 OR GREATER

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