By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:The famed Arlington Million, Thoroughbred racing's first seven-figure stakes race founded in 1981, makes a fourth appearance since its transition to Colonial Downs in Virginia. Saturday's card includes the sister race, the Beverly D, as well as the Secretariat Stakes for 3-year-olds and a bevy of undercard stakes. History could be in store as defending champion FORT WASHINGTON looks to become the event's first back-to-back winner and join the legendary John Henry as the only horses to secure 2 editions of the Million.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to check out the $5,000 Hit & Split promotion on the late pick 4 and pick 5 Saturday from Colonial Downs ($2,500 bonus money up for grabs with each wager).Field Depth:Grade 1 winners BURNHAM SQURE, FORT WASHINGTON and TEST SCORE have won at the highest levels. INTEGRATION is a Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed, while MERCANTE is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. DRESDEN ROW and LAYABOUT are Grade 3 winners, while GRAN ORIENTE won at the Group 1-level in his native Chile. In terms of schedule strength, it’s a close call between TEST SCORE, FORT WASHINGTON and INTEGRATION overall on turf.Pace:LAYABOUT and MERCANTE figure to show the most early interest, while GRAN ORIENTE would not surprise near the front on the stretch-out and under a hustling jockey from the outside gate. The pace looks average for the level and doesn’t favor any style.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-DRESDEN ROW: Canadian export won a pair of Kentucky allowance races after coming to Todd Pletcher this spring – including a Keeneland decision over Arlington Million rival Integration. Finished on the heels of returnee Mercante last out in the Wise Dan and now will be tested for distance. Tactical running style and inside trip could help him stretch his game and it’s hard to scoff at 18-for-18 in the money lifetime. After a slow July run, the Pletcher barn perked up Sunday with 2 wins and a second from 3 Saratoga starters – perhaps turning a corner? Would like him more if at a slightly shorter trip, but can’t dismiss chances.2-LAYABOUT: Middle-distance sort stretched out twice this winter at Gulfstream and wired the W.L. McKnight before setting the tone and tiring to fourth in the Mac Diarmida. While I like the form cycle here of adding distance in his second start off the layoff, I don’t see a race on his form capable of beating this quality over 10 furlongs. No knock winning 5 of his last 9, but prefer others.3-FORT WASHINGTON: The defending champ doesn't inspire comparisons to John Henry as his run at history might hint, but he doesn't have to compete against anyone of that hero's ilk. Still, the late-runner has been inconsistent with 6 off-the-board finishes in his last 10 starts. Nevertheless, he’s won the Million and 2 editions of the Dinner Party during that span when it all comes together. Jockey Junior Alvarado sticks at Saratoga on Saturday, leaving the mount to Javier Castellano, returning from injury. Stylistically I prefer Castellano on turf speed, so we’ll see how this marriage works. Standing against the Shug McGaughey trainee on Saturday based on a 5: 1-0-0 mark since winning this last summer.4-INTEGRATION: The 2024 Arlington Million runner-up and 2025 third-place finisher is the second of 2 Shug McGaughey entrants in this lineup. He’s had more local experience than the rest of the field combined, including a 2023 Virginia Derby score among a 5: 3-1-1 course mark. Failed to notch a stakes win in 6 tries since late in the 2024 campaign but knocks on the door every time. Exits a Manhattan that was run way too sharp for his liking and should appreciate a more controlled pace Saturday. Would not shock.5-BURNHAM SQUARE: Dominant winner of the Elkhorn and Louisville at marathon trips this spring, last year’s Blue Grass Stakes winner on dirt is now 5-for-5 in the exacta since moving to turf. Damside pedigree always indicated grass potential, and he’s found a home on it. Not as dominant last out when up on the pace by default, but the more-defined running styles of his rivals here should have him sitting chilly this time and give him his best chance. Trained on cue for this and the horse to beat.6-TEST SCORE: Such a deliberate and consistent running style keeps him in the hunt nearly every time, regardless of venue. He’s 0-for-3 beyond 1-1/8 miles but not embarrassed in those losses. Slightly better with a top-of-ground kind of firm turf – so a week full of dry skies and temps in the mid to upper 80s should give him that. First Colonial foray, but damsire Kitten’s Joy ran one of the best races of his career over this lawn in winning the 2004 Virginia Derby over Artie Schiller. Contender.7-MERCANTE: Millionaire earner rarely gets bet and will be a price again for trainer Brian Knippenberg. Seven straight losses have seen him hang a bit late in the going and settling for minor awards, which concerns as he extends to 10 furlongs. Dam, Caressing, did produce West Coast, a Travers winner over the distance, but he’s run enough times to trust his performances over the pedigree. Last effort in the Wise Dan was his best of the year and would like him quite a bit more if trip was shorter.8-GRAN ORIENTE: Hottest horse in the Million has won 4 of his last 5, though the lone defeat was his only attempt in a graded stakes. Has improved since adding distance after showing stamina in Chile a season ago. Jockey Paco Lopez has been on point at Colonial, as have the limited shippers from Saffie Joseph Jr. this meeting. Not the most dangerous player, but not out of the discussion.Most Likely Exotics Contender:INTEGRATION has a stellar local mark and has hit the board twice already in this race. He’s maintained consistent form coming into the race and capable at the distance.Best Longshot Contender:MERCANTE has 4 different graded-stakes placings at 13-1 or more odds in his last 10 starts. He hasn’t had the knockout punch late but could light the superfecta underneath and add a nice number again.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$50 exacta BOX BURNHAM SQUARE and INTEGRATION ($100).
By Xpressbet
SCHEDULE NOTESSaratoga | adds Wednesday racing to weekly lineupTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Saratoga Feeder | details$40 Mountaineer Feeder | details$40 Assiniboia Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | Thistledown | $88,712 | begins Race 4 | 1:50 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | Belterra | $2,031 | Race 8 | 4:05 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | $3,634 | Race 6 | 4:45 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | Assiniboia Downs | $476,666 (CAN) | begins Race 3 | 9:25 pm ETKEY RACESSaratoga | Race 6 | 4:05 pm ET | Curlin StakesAssiniboia Downs | Race 3 | 9:25 pm ET | Debutante StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXSaratoga | Race 5 | 3:30 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 7 | 5:16 pm ETMountaineer | Race 4 | 8:15 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHLinda Rice | Saratoga, Presque Isle, Finger Lakes | all 6 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Presque Isle Downs | jockey Gaddiel Martinez | 3 wins from 7 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Saratoga Spot Plays for WednesdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Scott Shapiro
The first five-day racing week of the summer is upon us in Saratoga Springs, which means a Wednesday of thoroughbred action in New York. The first of several “Hump Day” cards over the next several weeks commences at 1:10 PM local time with a MSW event out of the Wilson chute. The mid-week card is headlined by the return of Bill Mott conditioned Chief Wallabee. The fourth-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby (G1) and Belmont Stakes (G1) is set to take on five rivals in a spot where he is likely to be odds-on. Here are my thoughts on the Curlin Stakes, as well as a couple of horses I am most interested in to kick off the racing week.Race 1:#5 Wedelia and first-time starter #3 Maria Louise are expected to take the lion’s share of the wagering based on David Aragona’s morning line in this MSW for fillies and mares 3YOs+ at one-mile over the main track. Wedelia was made the 7-5-top choice off a pair of underneath finishes over the sloppy going at Churchill Downs, while the $850k daughter of Gun Runner is listed at 9-5. Debuting out of the Wilson chute suggests to me that Maria Louise is using this as a race to prepare for a true two-turn test in her second start, while I am concerned about Wedelia’s lack of early zip over a course that has played towards speed the first several weeks. I will try to beat them both with #1 Noble Glow. The Juddmonte homebred debuted in a 7-furlong sprint in Louisville in late November where she battled on the front end while wide on the backstretch, eventually got the best of the other speeds at the top of the lane, but had little left late for those coming from off-the-pace. She has been given plenty of time since that first start and should be fit for her return to the races. Flavien Prat was in the saddle on debut and is back once again. I like her chances with a clean break from her rail draw.Play: #1 Noble Glow (5-1 ML)Picks: 1-5-6Race 6: Curlin StakesThe aforementioned Wednesday feature is this $150k 1 1/8-event over the main track for 3YOs which have not won a graded stakes race. The clear class of the field is #4 Chief Wallabee. The 4-5-ML favorite has not won since a stylish debut victory at Gulfstream in January, but finished second in the Fountain of Youth (G2) followed up by third beaten a half-length in the Florida Derby (G1). His Kentucky Derby was better than looks based on flow and trip, but he fell flat in the Belmont over this surface. The class relief should help him, but he is likely to get hammered exiting the Triple Crown runs.I prefer #1 Blackout Time. The son of Not This Time was very good as a juvenile, including a runner-up effort to Ted Noffey in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1) before heading to the sidelines until late winter. Kenny McPeek brought him back off the bench in the Rebel (G2) where he disappointed much like he did in the Arkansas Derby (G1) leaving him out of the Triple Crown series. McPeek gave him three months off before bringing him back in a competitive allowance in Kentucky where he romped over the sloppy going. He draws the rail and has some upside still making him my play in this year’s Curlin.Play: #1 Blackout Time (3-1 ML)Picks: 1-4-3Race 7:My final play of the day comes in this second-level allowance at 9-furlongs over the grass where I like #1 Tirupati. The Mitole mare makes her second start of the form cycle for trainer Jonathan Thomas after getting a much different trip in an allowance at Ellis Park than I anticipate on Wednesday afternoon. It was Umberto Rispoli aboard in Kentucky in early July and he did not ride this gal as aggressively as I expect Luis Saez to in her first try over the Saratoga grass. Rispoli was somewhat passive out of the gate, which led to Tirupati getting caught between rivals while mid-pack in the early stages. This allowed the eventual winner to get the jump on her. Saez is unlikely to have Tirupati on the lead, but I expect him to ride for position out of the gate and sit a favorable ground saving pocket trip throughout. If so, she has a big shot to get the money.Play: #1 Tirupati (9-2 ML)Picks: 1-5-6
By Jeremy Plonk
Throughout July, Tuesdays and Thursdays heat up at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet with our Red, White & Bet promotion. Bet $100, Get $10 on select tracks this month. Next up Tuesday will be Horseshoe Indianapolis, where early conditions are sloppy and off the turf. Here’s how I’ll approach the card in Indiana with an assist from the Betmix Angler database.Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 2 | 2:41 pm ET#4 I Made It (8-1 morning line odds) won her start over a wet track last summer here at Indy and goes for a Stephen Fosdick barn that has 2 wins ($6, $13) and a runner-up (at 9-2) among its last 6 starters at the meet. Slight class drop could help after unsuccessful turf bid. Lotta of similarities to #6 Reimagine and also a useful price shot here. Win-place bet #4. Exacta 4,6 with 4,6,3. Picks: 4-6-3Horseshoe Indianapolis Race 7 | 5:16 pm ET#8 Rigoberto (3-1 morning line odds) should be tightened after a return third in June after 7 months away. Finished just behind the morning line favorite last out and any improvement turns the table. Note jockey Manny Esquivel is riding lights out right now at Indy, going 9: 4-1-1 the past 2 weeks with limited mounts (has just 2 today). Win bet #8. Picks: 8-7-4Eligible tracks and days:• Tuesday, July 28 // Horseshoe Indianapolis• Thursday, July 30 // Charles Town
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | today’s racesTOURNAMENT TIME$40 Mountaineer Feeder | details$40 Assiniboia Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | Thistledown | $75,886 | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | Assiniboia Downs | $446,569 (CAN) | begins Race 3 | 9:25 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 6 | 4:45 pm ETFairmount Park | Race 7 | 5:00 pm ETMountaineer | Race 4 | 8:15 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJuan Pablo Silva | Mountaineer | 4 of 5 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Horseshoe Indy | jockey Fernando De La Cruz | 2 wins ($11, $14), 2 seconds from 5 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk: Horseshoe Indianapolis Bet $100, Get $10 promo picksFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVES1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Gulfstream’s $3 Players Late Pick 3 | today10X 1/ST Rewards Points | Gulfstream / Horseshoe Indy Summer Sweep 5 betsSCHEDULE NOTESParx | currently on 3-week summer breakSPECIAL WAGERSSummer Sweep Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 3-5-7, Horseshoe Indianapolis Races 2-3--$1 minimum, 15% takeout, no CAWTOURNAMENT TIME$40 Mountaineer Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPlace Pick 8 | Gulfstream | $6,207 | begins Race 2 | 12:49 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | Gulfstream | $25,003 | begins Race 4 | 1:48 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | Thistledown | $68,074 | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 6 | 4:45 pm ETLouisiana Downs | Race 5 | 6:57 pm ETMountaineer | Race 4 | 8:15 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHSteve Asmussen | Louisiana Downs, Horseshoe Indy | 4 of 5 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Gulfstream | favorites went 1-for-9 on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMRon Nicoletti: Gulfstream Park full-card picks for MondayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Ron Nicoletti
Gulfstream Park on-track handicapper Ron Nicoletti is back with full-card analysis of Monday's 9-race program that features a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6 (carryover $25,003). Also note a carryover of $6,207 in the Place Pick 8 wager today. The Summer Sweep 5 wager will be races 3,5,7 from Gulfstream along with Races 2,3 at Horseshoe Indianapolis.Players with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet, take advantage of 10X 1/ST Rewards Points today when you bet on the Summer Sweep 5. And also play for 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points in a Gulfstream Players Late Pick 3 Hit & Split promo over the final 3 races.RACE 1:3 VICTORIOUS SECRET is stretching out to a mile and a sixteenth after setting the pace and finishing third going a mile last out. The rail is set at 53 feet, so a front running score is possible. 1 SHE’S TRIPPIN will race with the blinkers off after stalking the pace before weakening to finish fifth behind the top choice. Trainer Jeff Engler, 2 for 5, with an $8.72 ROI, with the blinkers off move, has apprentice Pedro Pena in the saddle. 5 COUSIN PAMMIE is eligible to show more with a clean start after ducking out prior to finishing a five-wide fourth vs $25,000 maidens going this distance on the grass. Kathryn Davey has J.G. Torrealba named to ride. SELECTIONS: 3-1-5RACE 2: PLACE PICK 8 BEGINS3 PAN HANDLE MICK is a daughter of Colonel Liam debuting for trainer Mike Yates, who is 17% with first-time starters. Apprentice Pedro Pena rides. 6 CORALLINE is a $250,000 daughter of Corniche (Quality Road), and a half-sister multiple graded stakes performer Life Mission, debuting for leading trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. with some solid workouts showing. 4 NO CALLER ID is a daughter of Dialed In debuting for Carlos David with some swift workouts showing in preparation for the debut. Leonel Reyes rides. SELECTIONS: 2-6-4RACE 3:2 GUS SWAYZE moves to the Carlos David barn via the claim and cuts back to seven furlongs on the dirt with blinkers added after stalking the pace and finishing fourth in a stamina tweaking outing going a mile on the turf. The barn, 19% with the surface switch, tabs Miguel Vazquez to ride. 1 COMMENDATORE, a sharp $35,000 maiden winner at the distance two starts back, drops to the $17,500 level after breaking thru the gate, vying for the lead before fading to finish last vs $50,000 starter optional claimer going six furlongs on a good track. 3 SURFER’S JOY is stepping up after becoming a two-time winner when he defeated $8,000 two lifetime claimers going a mile. Heather Smullen has Yolber Torres in the saddle. SELECTIONS: 2-1-3RACE 4: MANDATORY PAYOUT RAINBOW 6 BEGINS1 NOBLE PRIDE, a half-brother to hard-knocking local runner Noble Drama, stretches out to a mile after chasing the pace and finishing third going seven furlongs. Trainer David Fawkes finds an ideal spot to step this gelding up from $35,000 maidens to special weight competition. 5 WORDONDASTREET is making his first start since prompting the pace and finishing fourth at this level and distance in May. Trainer Amzadali Jehaludi has Miguel Vazquez up. 6 MARILYN’S MATE will try a mile after the needed six-furlong debut in which he broke slowly and was forced to wait for another day. Trainer Mike Lerman has Mario Gutierrez named to ride. SELECTIONS: 1-5-6RACE 5:7 KATE THE SMATE, a voided a claim last out, hopes to make amends after setting the pace and weakening late to finish third – as the favorite – at this level and distance. The recent workout, although it’s on the slow side, indicates she’s ready for the task ahead. 1 LOOKS TO KILL is dropping to the $8,000 level after following a second-place finish at the $12,500 level with a late running fourth vs $16,000 two lifetime runners last out. Trainer Jena Antonucci has Jose Morelos named to ride. 8 DUCHESS ELEANOR is cutting back to 5 1/2 furlongs after showing speed and fading vs better going around two turns on the Tapeta. Trainer Gerald Bennett is 13% with the route to sprint move. SELECTIONS: 7-1-8RACE 6:5 ROSE DANCER is cutting back to a sprint on the all-weather surface after showing speed and retreating vs $17,500 maidens going around two turns on the turf. Trainer Andrea Puckett has apprentice Pedro Pena in the saddle. 1 STARSHIP SPECTACLE is stretching out to 5 1/2 furlongs again after finishing second again when she rallied to grab the place spot at five furlongs on Tapeta. Steve Dwoskin has Jose Morelos in the saddle again. 6 ELUSIVE CHALICE is returning to action with blinkers after proving she clearly needed her debut during May when she broke awkwardly and raced greenly thereafter. Joe Orseno, 15% with maidens making their second start, has Mario Guterrez named to ride. SELECTIONS: 5-1-6RACE 7: $3 PLAYERS LATE PICK 3 BEGINS3 IGNIS COR is cutting back to five furlongs after getting fanned wide when finishing second in front of this familiar competition going 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. Victor Barboza Jr adds second-time blinkers for this assignment. 2 THE COROMOTO is turning back after tracking the pace and weakening to finish fifth behind the top choice. The cutback to five furlongs should help her cause. 1 WINNING DEFENSE will depart from the rail after rallying to finish third behind Ignis Cor and in front of The Coromoto last out. As Yogi says “I can be deja vu all over again. SELECTIONS: 3-2-1RACE 8:10 NOBLE J is stretching out to a mile after the pair of sharp sprint efforts in which he was second to next-out stakes’ winner Langvad two starts back with a victory vs state-bred allowance runners going seven furlongs. David Fawkes has Micha Husbands named to ride. 8 LATCH THE HATCH, a five-time local winner, is stretching out to a mile for the first time after the consistent sprint campaign for trainer Joe Orseno. He can steal this race if left lone on the front end. 2 NOTHINGSUBTLE is back in a competitive spot after following a well-meant second at this level and distance two starts back with a poor showing in a $70,000 overnight handicap last out. Miguel Vazquez rides. SELECTIONS: 10-8-2RACE 9:4 SABIAN is going back to the turf after following a pair competitive outings on the grass with a victory vs state-bred allowance winners going 5 1/2 furlongs on Tapeta. Victor Barboza Jr has Edwin Gonzalez in the irons. 8 GIANT TEDDY, popular in the claiming box, goes back to the turf after posting back-to-back victories on Tapeta, which includes the voided claiming victory last out. 2 CRUZIN MAN, 6 for 8 in the money on the turf, albeit without a victory, returns from the layoff with the speed needed to use the 53 foot rail setting to his advantage. Rohan Crichton lightens the load with apprentice Pedro Pena at the helm. SELECTIONS: 4-8-2BEST BET: RACE 9 – 4 SABIANLONGSHOT: RACE 6 – ROSE DANCER
By Al CImaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The $1.00 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 5. The Spot Plays are in Race 3, Race 6, and Race 9. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 3 (7:25 PM EDT)4-Finvarra A (6-1)-The grinder drops and should fit nicely with this group. Came home in 55.4 in last versus this kind and went off at 40-1 from post 7. Not expecting those odds but should be a juicy price. Could land in the pocket behind the program chalk #2 who is stepping up. If Jordan Stratton fires out the Dilloian entry it could be the best down the lane.4-2-1Playing #4 Finvarra A to WinRace 6 (8:25 PM EDT)1-Laser Speed (4-1)-Has fallen short against better but on 6-23 wired this kind from the rail. Drops, Brent Holland steered then and sticks here. Has taken 4 pictures in 20 races at YR and history could repeat itself.Playing #1 Laser Speed to Win1-2-5Race 9 (9:25 PM EDT)6-Control Rocks (5-1)-PcD invader makes its Yonkers debut, takes on older but should fit. Had broken equipment last time and still came a close 3rd. This isn’t the deepest field and may have the tactical speed to get the top or the pocket off the gate. Colin Kelly should have the pedal down and could win at a square price.Playing #6 Control Rocks to Win6-1-2Check me out on X!