The G1 Pacific Classic takes center stage at the Del Mar Thoroughbred Club on Saturday, as 11 runners are scheduled to tackle the 10-furlong test that will reward the winner with a starting spot in the 2026 Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland in October. Below you’ll find my fair win odds for each of the runners, as well as my thoughts on the contenders I find most appealing.1 – Om N Joy | 3% / 32-12 – Forged Steel | 7% / 13-13 – Finger | 9% / 10-14 – Subsanador | 3% / 32-15 – Malarchuk | 3% / 32-16 – Original Sin | 5% / 19-17 – Hit Show | 17% / 5-18 – British Isles | 2% / 49-19 – Navajo Warrior | 17% / 5-110 – Full Serrano | 6% / 15-111 – Knightsbridge | 28% / 5-2NAVAJO WARRIOR (9) has done little wrong since moving to the Saffie Joseph, Jr. barn, winning six races at six different tracks since last August, including a couple of graded stakes races most recently. A son of Candy Ride, Navajo Warrior has won both the Pimlico Special (pictured) and Cornhusker Handicap in front-running fashion, but given the pace scenario in Saturday’s Pacific Classic, that doesn’t seem like a likely scenario this time around. The good news? This five-year-old gelding has proven himself to be effective from off the pace, as well. He’s on an upward trajectory on the Beyer scale and he’s remarkably consistent as far as Thorograph is concerned (steady diet of 1.5s). The distance wouldn’t seem to be an issue, and, assuming there’s regression for Knightsbridge, a repeat of his recent performances may be enough to result in grade one glory.KNIGHTSBRIDGE (11) is the most interesting horse in this year’s Pacific Classic in terms of the bigger picture. His two-turn debut in the Monmouth Cup last month was phenomenal, earning a 122 Beyer Speed Figure and a -6 on Thorograph, both numbers that would win this race by open-lengths. At a short price, though, that’s far from a given. Not only does the son of Nyquist need to prove that he’s capable of producing those numbers right back, but he needs to do it at a new track, against better company, AND at a distance he’s never tried. If you could guarantee that he’d go off at his morning line odds of 5-2? Curiosity would kill this cat and I’d bite. I just don’t see any scenario where this horse is anything greater than 8-5, in which case representing an underlay.If you’re playing for a pace burn up, HIT SHOW (7) is the horse for you. Despite being a Dubai World Cup winner, the son of Candy Ride has never shown himself to be a true grade one type – but, aside from Knightsbridge, this field looks closer to a grade two than a grade one. The distance is of no concern for the Brad Cox trainee, and he’s shown on multiple occasions that he can produce winning efforts at different racetracks (his 12 victories have come at six different venues).The wildcard in this year’s Pacific Classic is clearly FINGER (3), the three-year-old shipping in from Japan. Never out of the exacta in eight career starts, the son of Gun Runner most recently was a front-running winner of the Tokyo Derby in June. By all accounts the form of the Tokyo Derby has held up relatively well, but this is a tall task. Not only shipping to Southern California from Japan but taking on older horses in his graded stakes debut is no small feat. While his intrigue is obvious, I’m skeptical that the Japanese narrative is going to result in him going off at an underlaid price. With the success that Japanese runners have had internationally over the past five years, it would be no surprise to see this runner go off as one of the favorites in the wagering. He’s a fascinating watch, not a fascinating bet, in this year’s Pacific Classic.MY PLAY: 9 – Navajo Warrior to WIN at odds of 5-1 or greater

SCHEDULE NOTESRemington Park | opening night of Thoroughbred season | first post 8:15 pm ETTOURNAMENT TIME$800 Del Mar Pacific Classic Betting Challenge Qualifier | details$100 Saratoga Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | Del Mar | $30,900 | begins Race 3 | 6:02 pm ETKEY RACESSaratoga | Race 9 | 5:44 pm ET | Fleet Indian StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXSaratoga | Race 6 | 4:00 pm ETColonial Downs | Race 8 | 4:08 pm ETRemington Park | Race 1 | 8:15 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMiguel Clement | Saratoga | 6 of 7 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Charles Town | jockey Jeiron Barbosa | 3 wins, 2 seconds from 6 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Saratoga Spot Plays for FridayJeremy Plonk: Del Mar Spot Plays for FridayFrank Carulli: Remington Park Opening Night Late Pick 4 AnalysisFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Yesterday’s pair of plays whiffed so let’s turn up the oceanside heat Friday, where a $30,889 carryover in the pick 6 welcomes horseplayers. It could be a big day for red-hot trainer Peter Miller, who has won with his last 3 starters at the meet and is 16: 6-2-1 in turf sprints this summer (winning 4 of his last 9 such grass dashes). Miller has entrants in Races 1,3,5 at the turf sprint trip – all lined between 7-2 and 4-1.Each day this summer at Del Mar, I’ll be handicapping the action with my top plays on the card – including full-card selections for a featured program each week (this week’s full-card will be Saturday).Del Mar: Race 1 | 5:00 pm ET#1 Michael (4-1 morning line odds) debuts for Peter Miller and jockey Joel Rosario, who teamed Thursday for an impressive rookie winner. Barn is on a roll and has been strong in turf sprints all season. Maclean’s Music has had some decent results on Del Mar, sprinting and a touch of first-out success. Debut runners catch weak experienced foes, including a pair of pursuers of Bullwhacker on July 23 and that one came back to trail the field in an allowance sprint next. Win bet #1. Picks 1-2-6Del Mar: Race 5 | 4:06 pm ET#6 Got The Ring (7-2 morning line odds) not only represents the aforementioned Miller barn, but I’ll often back route speed when they return from a layoff in a turf sprint. She’s run well over the course and is pace-versatile while getting Lasix for the first time. Has 6 perfectly spaced workouts at San Luis Rey for the comeback. Consider #10 First Or Last in exotic if that one draws into the field. If Miller barn continues to be live early, consider daily double 6-7 to Tessuto in the next race. Win bet #6. Picks 6 with 10-1-4-2Del Mar: Race 7 | 8:06 pm ET#4 Raw Ability (5-2 morning line odds) catches a field of 6 with 4 speed horses to set the table. Has to outkick #1 Canto Della Terra for the money but exits tougher races than that one and trainer John Sadler makes a big rider move from Leparoux to Rispoli. When the best horse gets the best set-up, they rarely give back the advantage. Pick 6 single as second choice in the morning line. Win bet #4. Daily Double 4-5 to Here Comes Too Too in the finale. Picks 4-1-5

Racing resumes this afternoon at Saratoga where NYRA has a ten-race card on tap that kicks off at 1:10 PM eastern. The card is led by the featured $200k Fleet Indian for New York-breds going nine-furlongs over the main track. Here are a few runners I am keying in on later today.Race 3:I will get serious bang for my buck in this MSW event for fillies and mares out of the Wilson chute since I simply do not trust any of the logical runners on the cutback to this unique one-turn configuration. #4 Masquerademistress is listed at 20-1 on the ML as the lone debut runner in the field for trainer Charlton Baker. Baker does not sport strong numbers with first-time starters, but the value will be there to give this gal a shot since she could make an easy lead if that is the plan. Jockey Katie Davis is generally aggressive out of the gate and this daughter of Munnings is out of a Midnight Lute mare that won her first two starts. Hopefully, Davis gets this one to the front at a big price. Stamina is still a major question, but I will take my chances at the ML offering.Play: #4 Masquerademistress (20-1 ML)Picks: 4-3-2Race 6:Chad Brown has had five 2YOs debut at two-turns on the grass at Saratoga so far in 2026 resulting in one winner and four in the money finishes. He and Klaravich Stables have won plenty over the years with firsters in races like this and appear to have found a good spot for their daughter of Twirling Candy #6 Doves and Hawks. The Keeneland Sept ’25 $300k purchase meets a group where the two ML favorites are far from unbeatable. The fact Brown goes to Flavien Prat is a positive and the lack of pedigree on the immediate dam side thus far leads me to believe this one caught must have really caught the eye in Kentucky last year. Either way, the start of the late Pick 5 appears open for a filly making their first career start to take advantage of. I will try one of the more logical ones.Play: #6 Doves and Hawks (9-2 ML)Picks: 6-8-7Race 9: Fleet IndianThe pace is likely to be contentious at the very least in this NY-bred Friday feature at 1 1/8-miles over the main track given the presence of #1 Power of Women, #2 Hot Currency, and #8 Unlock the Value amongst others. This should give a runner from off-the-pace a big chance with #3 Venetta the most obvious on paper. The Danny Gargan trainee has rattled off three consecutive wins, including her first two-turn race at Finger Lakes last month. The daughter of Yaupon has the right running style, but appears early in her career to be a stronger finisher in one-turn races. #5 Lady Rose also has to prove she can finish strong at nine-furlongs, but the price should be right to gamble on the Upstart filly. She has a strong stamina influence on the bottom side and should be in the right position to relax early and come with a strong run late. It has not been a good meet for veteran Jose Lezcano. Hopefully, he can boot a price home though in the 2026 Fleet Indian.Play: #5 Lady Rose (8-1 ML)Picks: 5-3-4

Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The Spot Plays roll in Race 5, Race 6, and Roll 8. They can be played to win or could be used in gimmicks. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 5 (8:05 PM EDT)5-Nial Maree N (4-1)-Should offer a square price in a race without a true standout. Can be in the mix at the wire starting from the 1-hole. Gets a positive driver change with Colin Kelly at the controls and will look for an aggressive try. Does have enough gate speed to be racing on the point or in the pocket when the wings fold. Does well at Yonkers (21-6-6-4).1-5-2Race 6 (8:25 PM EDT)6-Nymeria (8-1)-Came off the bench to face Invites and put in an even effort. Then dropped to a level lower than this and faded late in the mile to disappoint at 3/5. Steps up after burning money and now could offer a handsome price. Will look for better in the 3rd start back in action. The price is right to take a swing, will fade the rail horse who is taking on better and is 7/5.6-4-1Race 8 (9:05 PM EST)3-Oakley Shard N (5-1)-Going to fade #4 the 2-1 choice looking for 3 straight who is stepping up. This is the 2nd start in town for the New Zealand mare following a no-move effort. Expecting a better mutuel than the morning line price. Kakaley may look to leave and could land in the pocket behind the program chalk and post a trip out win.3-4-5Check me out on X!

Four stakes, including the $1 million Pacific Classic, stuff an 11-race card on Del Mar’s biggest day of summer. With Journalism and Nysos retired, and Baeza since-departed for a New York change of address, the west coast handicap scene is wide, wide open. Raiders come from as far as Louisville, Saratoga and Tokyo.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can earn tiered cash rewards based on the amount bet on the Del Mar Saturday card. Bet $100-$249, earn $10 back; $250-$499 gets $25 back; $500+ gets $50 back. Be sure to opt into the promotion.Each day this summer at Del Mar, I’ll be handicapping the action with my top plays on the card – including full-card selections for a featured program each week.Del Mar Race 1 | maiden claimingPerhaps the race on the card that I have the least feel for, I’ll take a longshot fling amongst that uncertainty. #2 Pyrokinetic was never asked and perked up a bit late with a surprisingly solid 89 BRIS late pace figure when having no shot behind a slow pace. Neil Drysdale’s second-time starters have won 3 of their last 8 bids, including $15 and $34 winners among those. #1 Bogarts Bucchero could wire from inside on the stretchout, but likely faces pressure from #9 Mighty Toro as both take a key class drop. Likely 4-deep if playing the early pick 5. Picks 2-1-9-3Del Mar Race 2 | claimingObviously better races to come, but this isn’t one of them. No play for me unless including in multi-race bets. #4 Sugaree takes another class drop and gets second-time Lasix. Can sit behind the speed, which looks plentiful enough here and capable of folding back to the pack. #2 Church Lady is questionable in a dirt sprint but has the co-best maiden win in this race along with #10 Rich of Joy. Not sure he’ll be effective on dirt and the rider is 0-for-the-year. #9 Shady Stripes takes them as far as she can but will she hold form changing barns? Picks 4-2-10-9Del Mar Race 3 | allowance / optional claimingStrong pace projected in this turf route with a capacity field, meaning nobody should get a free lunch up front. #10 Ventry Strand is the best finisher in turf routes among these and should be well-matched with finishing jockey Joel Rosario. #2 Oracle of Paradise returns off a May break for a Brian Koriner barn going very well of late, but loses his pilot to our top pick. Most confident early-day lean in this race. Picks 10-2-3.Del Mar Race 4 | maiden special weightAmongst the multi-million dollar group of 2-year-olds debuting around 2 turns, I’m giving a push to the third-start-of-the-meet maiden claimer #2 Boss Man Bolt. Over the last decade, we’ve had 24 such 2YO dirt routes at Del Mar during its summer meets and first-timers are 20: 0-2-3 in them, including Baffert going 0-7. He’ll send out #3 Babe’s Empire and #5 Motga, the latter a much smoother morning mover on video and stronger of the pair to this eye. #7 Psalm debuts for Michael McCarthy and is full-brother to 9F Remsen 2YO winner Maximus Mischief. He’s a leggy sort who breaks fine but takes a while to get wound up in his works on video. The route should suit him and he’s the rookie lean. But the value is with #2 Boss Man Bolt with good experience over the track and note the Ruis family has run 2 horses in 2YO maiden dirt routes the past decade, winning both at $42 and $103 boxcar mutuels. Both were offspring of Bolt d’Oro. Let’s see if we can’t get another big bingo from Ruis. Picks 2-7-5-6Del Mar Race 5 | $200K Green Flash HandicapA July 19 allowance prep rematches the 1-2-3 finishers, including runner-up #6 Motorious, who has won the Green Flash 3 years running. He’s now age 8 and admittedly I was unimpressed by his workout after the allowance prep, clearly outworked that morning. But respect his love of this course and Antonio Fresu has been the best turf sprint rider at the meet (25: 7-4-5 coming into the week). That race’s rallying third-place finisher #9 Sorrento Sky was visually impressively late at even weights last time and not gets 3-4 pounds from his rivals. Not a huge deal, but everything helps in turf sprints when razor-thin margins are the norm. #5 Sumter won the scrum in that allowance, with Lasix, to improve Richard Mandella to 4: 3-0-1 in turf sprints at the meet. Think our best price comes with Sorrento Sky and really liked what I saw last out in the lane when you consider how fast #1 Monster is coming from the east and how he can gas those in his early pursuit. Picks 9-6-5Del Mar Race 6 | maiden special weightWhile we’re working against the Baffert babies in the Race 4 route today, his sprint filly #6 Furiosity looks like the dash goods in her debut. She wants to cook early based on her workout videos and may be better-suited for the 5-1/2 furlongs under go-to pilot Juan Hernandez than stablemate #9 Sea’s No Joke, who was very impressive drawing off from a workmake in her tuneup on video. Doug O’Neill has a pair entered who have been working together and #7 Confetti Rain easily outworked #3 Miss Midterm in the drill I saw on tape. Picks 6-9-7Del Mar Race 7 | allowance / optional claimingA dozen turf milers open the late pick 5 and this looks like go-time for #5 American Hope. Trainer Brian Koriner’s barn has been on point in recent weeks and he drops in class and makes a significant rider move from Ayuso to Rosario. Horse has been plagued by wide draws and lands a better gate to save ground early and kick late. Will key him strongly in the intra-race exotics. #7 Captain Choochies is a pure turf miler and also should appreciate the class drop like the top pick, but this one has the early speed. Expect him up top with #2 Charlie’s to Blame. Picks 5 over 7-2-1Del Mar Race 8 | allowance / optional claimingDay’s best bet #8 Clouseau is a fresh face who has posted 97 BRIS late pace figures twice in 2-turn dirt races and gets a delicious set-up. The top 3 from a July 18 allowance are all back, but hard to trust a race where 30-1 and 22-1 shots dueled and nobody picked up enough hoof to close despite a 25-3/5 slow final quarter. Toss all of those and go for the newcomers. #9 Santarena hasn’t route in over a year but was second to Flightline’s kid bro Eagles Flight when last trying it. Picks 8-9-5-7Del Mar Race 9 | $300K Del Mar OaksThe San Clemente has been such a trustworthy prep for the Del Mar Oaks over the years that you’ll want to start your handicapping there. Five of the last 6 Oaks winners prepped earlier at the Del Mar meet and note 9 of the last 11 exited stakes preps. I loved #7 Peanutbutterbombe in the San Clemente and she hopped at the start, then bucked like a bronco and pulled very hard as a sweaty mess. Everything went to pieces before the first 100 yards. None of that’s mentioned in the past performances. Somehow she still ran fourth beaten 3-1/4 lengths. The offspring of Collected are simply awesome over this course and nearly trusted blind bets. The shipper of most intrigue is #9 Kensington Lane, an Irish filly who won the Belmont Oaks at 23-1 for Donnacha O’Brien and switches barns to Phil D’Amato. Her sire Starspangledbanner has had solid success with his Del Mar turf offspring. #4 Green Carerra was a Royal Ascot winner in the Sandringham and brings plenty of class for Joseph O’Brien. But I’m all-in for Peanutbutterbombe. Picks 7 with 9-4-6-10Del Mar Race 10 | $1 million Pacific ClassicThere’s a scenario where #11 Knightsbridge dominates as we’ve seen him run up the score against lower-graded going shorter on the east coast. Another scenario exists where a 1-1/4 miles race with so much confirmed early speed completely melts down and catapults late-running #7 Hit Show up over the $10 million mark in lifetime earnings. Neither will surprise. I’m going trust my eyes in that #2 Forged Steel completely won me over in his Aug. 16 workout at Saratoga. Saffie Joseph trainees have rarely caught my eye training, so it’s not like they all work this way. He pulled hard early, relaxed beautifully for the rider, wasn’t asked, changed leads right on cue and finished sharply in 47-3/5 while on cruise control. He was very rank into the clubhouse turn of the Suburban last out, but his last California foray for the Gold Cup at Santa Anita was a career-best. He’s tipping his hand and having Florida pilot Edwin Gonzalez aboard should help our price a bit. As for Japan raider #3 Finger, he was washed out and a hot mess when seen on the track on video. He didn’t come home fast in the Tokyo Derby despite a slow pace and he could get gassed chasing serious US speed. Doesn’t show same turn of foot we’ve seen from some others to raid from Japan, but is a wildcard. Trainer’s only US start was second in 2024 BC Turf at 22-1 (Rousham Park). Picks 2-11-7Del Mar Race 11 | $300K Del Mar MileHorses cutting back in distance with stakes experience at the meet have been the right fit in the Del Mar Mile over the past decade-plus. The group of Eddie Read alumni in this race fit the playbill after coming up short against all-time Del Mar turfer Gold Phoenix. #1 Cabo Spirit leads that cast after a nose runner-up and benefits from the rail Saturday. He’ll be forward throughout in a race without an overwhelming tempo on paper. #7 Almendares is much better at a mile than the Eddie Read extra real estate and can bounce back some. Sharp miler #9 King of Gosford has some pace versatility and would be no surprise. #12 El Potente puts Hector Berrios is a difficult spot from the widest draw but has run first or second in 9 of his last 12 and can’t be dismissed. Good race with options – get some coverage in multi-race bets. Brazilian import #6 Sinsel is X-factor for Mandella, but did not impress at all in lone video work I saw. Picks 1-7-9-12

Another Saturday of thoroughbred racing at beautiful Saratoga Race Course is upon us with this time the Alabama (G1) the headliner. The stakes event for 3YO fillies is led by odds-on favorite Counting Stars. The Mark Casse trainee heads into her first ten-furlong test with a chance of winning her third consecutive Grade 1 over the historic upstate New York racetrack. Here are my thoughts on all 12 races.Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: XUse: 6 Modest MacleanForecast: The opener is a state-bred MSW event out of the Wilson chute where I have no desire trying to beat 8-5-ML favorite #6 Modest Maclean. The Linda Rice trainee was well-meant on debut earlier this month going off the even-money favorite in a seven-furlong race over this surface. Rice brings him back three weeks later after being run down in the final strides by his stablemate. Jose Ortiz is back aboard one of the likelier winners on the slate.Race 2:Grade: C+Use: 7 Arkhipov; 4 Asbury ParkForecast: Trainer Chad Brown appears to hold an extremely strong hand in this second-level allowance event over the Inner Turf. Brown enters ML favorite #4 Asbury Park and 3-1-second choice #7 Arkhipov. Asbury Park has not raced since a disappointing performance on Kentucky Derby in the Turf Classic (G1). He gets class relief here, but I prefer Arkhipov. The Munnings gelding was beaten to the jump by stablemate Right to Vote, but finished with solid energy to earn second in a similar spot last month. Flavien Prat sticks around to ride a 4YO that could be tough to hold off late.Race 3:Grade: C+Use: 3 Got Tough; 1 PowerlineForecast: There are certainly some well-bred first-time starters entered in this MSW event at 6.5-furlongs, but I will roll with the two colts with experience in #1 Powerline and #3 Got Tough. Powerline was bet down to 8-5 for his debut over this surface last month and lost little in defeat finishing second to a good looking first out winner for the Brad Cox barn. He is the clear one to beat, but the slow break and his rail draw make another short price tough to swallow. Got Tough was easily handled by Powerline in that July 18 race over this surface, but should move forward quite a bit with the addition of blinkers after losing some interest out there during the middle stages before re-rallying to finish third. Ideally, he will be sent aggressively out of the gates by new rider Ricardo Santana Jr.Race 4:Grade: C+Use: 1 AmericanexpressionForecast: #1 Americanexpression is not likely to offer a lot of value taking on winners for the first time in this $40k non-winners of two event sprinting over the grass, but looks like the clear one to beat. The Lindy Farms filly ran third on debut over the Gulfstream Park all-weather before dropping in for $55k last out and winning despite being caught three-wide much of the way. She moves to the inside, which could present a challenge with a slow break, but showed more gate speed than a quick look on paper appears in her first start. Trainer Phil Antonacci uses the voided claim last month feels to find a soft spot for his trainee who retains the services of Ricardo Santana Jr.Race 5:Grade: B-Use: 3 Madeline’s AgendaForecast: There does not appear to be an abundance of early speed signed on in this $55k maiden claimer at 1 1/16-miles over the Inner Turf, so I will hope class dropper #3 Madeline’s Agenda uses her inside draw and early speed to take advantage. The daughter of Known Agenda did not have things go well in her first start versus protected maidens during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival and did not finish much better in her second start, but I liked the fact she flashed a lot more speed from the gate. Now, she gets a rider upgrade to Manny Franco and a decrease in competition. With a good break, Manny should be able to find a prominent position early against a field that could be caught in a tough spot late if the tempo is moderate. 6-1 seems fair.Race 6:Grade: B-Use: 11 Very Clever; 4 Key Colony Beach; 9 Above All OddsForecast: This MSW event for 2YO fillies at 6.5-furlongs looks like it could be a live one. Of those that have raced I prefer #4 Key Colony Beach. The $650k daughter of Omaha Beach gets blinkers after running a solid second to the well-bred Effusive over the sloppy going on July 18. A move forward could make her tough for a first-time starter to beat, but there do appear to be some with massive upside. Of them, #11 Very Clever is the one I like most on debut. The far outside draw can be tricky for a firster, but this gal is a half-sister to the extremely talented sprinter Matareya. She ships in from Churchill Downs and looks ready to roll for trainer Brad Cox. If she is 9-2 or higher, I can see diving in on the Win end.Race 7:Grade: B-Use: 8 SacrosanctForecast: I lack creativity in this $130k allowance at six-furlongs over the main track where 5-2-ML favorite #8 Sacrosanct looks like the right horse. The son of Honest Mischief makes his third start of the form cycle after a third-place effort to the talented Senior Officer on July 26. He gets a softer group for the level and should benefit from the slight half-furlong cutback. The NY-bred has won 6 of 11 career races and should get a great trip from his outside draw.Race 8:Grade: C+Use: 5 Vernon Valley; 9 Maria Callas; 3 ArinataForecast: I will take a swing in this state-bred first-level allowance event at 5.5-furlongs over the grass with #5 Vernon Valley. The daughter of Vekoma makes her second start off the ten-month layoff after making a three-wide middle move in a race many of her rivals exit on July 25 before tiring in the lane. I can forgive Vernon Valley getting tired that day not only because she was coming off a long break for a new barn, but also because they went at it upfront causing the race to fall apart late. Ideally, she would have hung around better despite the premature move, but that would have hurt her price on Saturday. Hopefully, she can win, but things should work out okay if we can get her into the number in a wide-open start to the late Pick 5.Race 9:Grade: B-Use: 3 Cocktailsnkringle; 9 Playa Del Mar; 10 C McGriffForecast: Regally-bred #5 Stimulate is likely to take plenty of support in his first start against winners for Bill Mott, but I do not trust the Tapit colt out of star mare Elate. The Wilson chute has not been overly kind to horses that start slow and he did not beat all that much in his win over the slop last month.I like a pair of long shots to potentially get in the mix, including top pick #3 Cocktailsnkringle. Owner/trainer Steven Schauer won two races on Wednesday and has a shot with this son of Preservationist who makes his first start since a head victory against starter foes at Aqueduct. He should be forward after running second over this unique configuration in June. #10 C McGriff is also in with a chance. The outside draw is not ideal, but he cuts back from a true two-turn race at Churchill Downs in mid-June. Robby Medina lost a tough one last week and is a better conditioner than some of his numbers might suggest.Race 10: Ballston Spa (G2)Grade: B-Use: 4 Play With Fire/6 Segesta; 5 And One More TimeForecast: Trainer Chad Brown has won this 1 1/16-mile race over the Inner Turf for fillies and mares a record eight times. Brown sends out three this year, including 7-5-ML favorite #6 Segesta. The Juddmonte homebred is the class of the field exiting five consecutive Grade 1 events, but is far from unbeatable. I will try to out finish her with stablemate #4 Play With Fire. The daughter of Oscar Performance is not as accomplished as some of her main rivals, but makes her second start off the layoff after a neck defeat on July 9. I will be happy to build my wagers around her if she is anything close to the listed 15-1-ML offering.Race 11: Alabama (G1)Grade: XUse: 6 Counting StarsForecast: #6 Counting Stars went into the Kentucky Oaks (G1) as one of several that were in the mix for the top of this year’s 3YO filly crop, but she heads into the Alabama (G1) with a chance to put herself well above the class. She ran a good third in the Oaks before huge runs in the Acorn (G1) and Coaching Club American Oaks (G1). Regression is always a possibility for a young filly after big races like she has run, but certainly shows no reason on paper she will not handle this compact group of six. She is not only the classiest and fastest horse, but is likely to have a pace advantage. I have no desire in trying to beat the daughter of Honor A.P.Race 12:Grade: B-Use: 3 Home Wrecker; 1 Stand the Rain/6 Mary Lois; 4 Fango CreekForecast: The logicals make sense to be there in this 1 3/16-mile MSW event for the ladies to close the card, but I like a price most. #3 Home Wrecker took a tough beat missing by a length when arguably best during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. In her next start on the Fourth of July, she never got comfortable under jockey Joel Rosario. Trainer Danny Gargan stretches her out past 8.5-furlongs for the first time and puts Kendrick Carmouche back in the saddle. I expect this to lead to a voyage either on the lead or sitting just off the pace of #2 Prime Connection. Either way, she should run well if able to handle the added ground.

The Lead:Del Mar’s biggest weekend surfs to a close Sunday, wrapping up the Pacific Classic festivities with its Del Mar Derby Day card. The 1-1/8 miles turf test has been run at the oceanside oval since 1945 and has been won by the likes of Relaunch, Hawkster, Tight Spot, Da Hoss, Twirling Candy and Om.The typical 5 pm ET first post time will be in play for the 9-race lineup with the featured Derby set Race 7 at for 8:00 pm ET.​​Field Depth:UNRIVALED TIME is the only graded-stakes winner in the lineup, winning at the Grade 3 level over this course last year. PAVLOVIAN is Grade 2-placed, while PROLETARIAT and SECURED FREEDOM are Grade 3-placed. The toughest strengths of schedule clearly belong to PAVLOVIAN and SECURED FREEDOM.​Pace:Expect early pace from rail-drawn PROLETARIAT, while PAVLOVIAN has shown early interest on dirt but that may or may not transfer to turf. TRIBALISM could be in the early hunt if the rider chooses. The pace looks comfortable for those near the front and a deep closer has an uphill battle.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-PROLETARIAT (pictured): Loved him opening day in the Del Mar Derby prep, the Oceanside, when he dominated at 6-1 odds and outran even my expectations. A 24-1/5 second quarter sealed the front-running deal and allowed him to kick home the last quarter is a mighty 22-4/5 over a mile. Pedigree says he can get the trip and his 93 BRIS late pace figure in the Oceanside adds support. Absolutely the horse to beat with no heavy hitters shipping in to disrupt his place in the local sophomore turf ranks.2-UNRIVALED TIME: Among several in here involved in some traffic woes around the far turn of the Oceanside, but he wasn’t going anywhere at the time and probably least-impacted among the returnees. Hasn’t really improved since winning the Cecil B. DeMille, but should appreciate the additional distance and will save all the ground early as the rail speed clears out inside him.3-SECURED FREEDOM: Oceanside runner-up made a credible turf debut in that one after testing the Santa Anita Derby trail on dirt earlier this year. Trainer Tim Yakteen’s barn is firing right now and this consistent colt matches up on class. Sharp works since the Oceanside and makes for a very logical contender if Proletariat doesn’t fire a similar shot to his last.4-TRIBALISM: Stakes debut for stretch-out candidate whose pedigree leans heavily toward the miles he had been running prior. Light 84 and 85 BRIS late pace figures going a furlong shorter raise doubts. Joel Rosario has been riding very well of late and he’ll have a decision to make in terms of attacking the pace or stalking. Could get stuck doing the dirty work, a tough task when distance is already in doubt.5-BUST OUT: Joins Tribalism in the gate here representing trainer Michael McCarthy, who won this race 2 years ago with Formidable Man. Jockey Umberto Rispoli looks for an unprecedented Del Mar Derby 3-peat in the saddle and his fourth career score in this race. Complexity colt had no in-race excuse in the Oceanside when a non-threatening fourth, but was returning just 20 days’ rest and a road trip to Kentucky. Sharp 47-2/5 workout Aug. 7 may tip that he’s better this time.6-PAVLOVIAN: After 13 starts on dirt, including a Sunland Derby win, a Louisiana Derby head runner-up and a Kentucky Derby last-place finish, trainer Doug O’Neill will give turf a shot. The barn won this race in 2022 with Slow Down Andy, a fellow Cal-bred dirt horse who also failed in the Real Good Deal earlier in his Del Mar summer season. Sire Pavel’s offspring are just 3-37 on the Del Mar turf with 76% of them out of the money (coming into this racing week).7-JORDI BEAR: Irish export has been with Phil D’Amato for 2 domestic starts now and has the biggest beef to make with the traffic issues in the Oceanside. He regrouped nicely, but could only muster a sixth-place finish despite a race-best 95 BRIS late pace figure among the returnees. This gelding was a length off Proletariat in their prior Santa Anita allowance sprint and adds blinkers. He’ll be closer to the action than last and with a clean trip will be the biggest threat to the favorite.8-MELISMATIC: A second Phil D’Amato Irish export in the lineup, this July 19 local turf mile allowance winner hasn’t show enough late oomph to me to project to 1-1/8 miles. He’s by Breeders’ Cup Mile winner Space Blues and his 77-88-89 BRIS late pace figures going shorter don’t indicate the extra ground helps. D’Amato won this race in 2014 (Midnight Storm) and 2023 (Conclude).9-CHARLIE’S CURLIN: Trainer Jeff Mullins has the rail-drawn favorite in Proletariat and bookends the field with this longshot, seventh-place Oceanside pursuer. The Curlin colt was part of the traffic trouble last time, but already was backing away at the time and tends to lose steam on the back end of his races. He does have 4 workouts since the Oceanside vs. 3 for the others, bouncing back on the workout tab just 9 days after that race. Could be a sign he’s well and attracts Juan Hernandez off Tribalism.Most Likely Exotics Contender:PROLETARIAT should enjoy a reasonably comfortable trip up front and has been aces of late.Best Longshot Contender:CHARLIE’S CURLIN doesn’t have enough starch to contend for the top spot, but maybe sticks for a longshot share of the superfecta.​​Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$75 exacta PROLETARIAT over JORDI BEAR. $25 exacta PROLETARIAT over SECURED FREEDOM.