EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Santa Anita | today’s races (including Sunset 6)SPECIAL WAGERSSunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 7-8-9; Santa Anita Races 6-7-8Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 8-9; Santa Anita Races 2-4-6TOURNAMENT TIME$40 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | Oaklawn | $52,483 | begins Race 4 | 3:21 pm ETSunset 6 | $30,598 | Gulfstream/Santa Anita | begins GP Race 7 | 3:47 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $71,170 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 3 | 5:22 pm ETKEY RACESMahoning Valley | Race 7 | 3:03 pm ET | Howard B. Noonan StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXGulfstream | Race 1 | 12:50 pm ETOaklawn | Race 5 | 3:53 pm ETCharles Town | Race 9 | 10:45 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHLinda Rice | Aqueduct | 8 of 9 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Turf Paradise | 63-year-old jockey Pat Valenzuela wins first race of latest comebackPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Sunset 6 Carryover Analysis for ThursdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

The Lead:Keeneland's massive Blue Grass Day Saturday card includes Kentucky Derby prospects and 4 undercard stakes. My strongest opinion in the preliminaries is a pace play in the 7-furlong Madison, which goes as Race 9 of 11.Horseplayers be sure to take part $10 Money-Back Special on all Kentucky Derby preps this season with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. That includes Saturday's Blue Grass at Keeneland, Wood at Aqueduct and the Santa Anita Derby. There's also a $5,000 Exacta-Thon this Saturday on the Keeneland and Santa Anita programs.​​Field Depth:Grade 1 winner CLIQUOT is joined by Grade 2 winners MYSTIC LAKE, R DISASTER, PRAYING and GRAND JOB. ECLATANT and RAGTIME are Grade 3 winners, the latter G1-placed. On class it's a very even matchup considering CLICQUOT did her damage in 3-year-old restricted races.​Pace:Extremely hot. Win this on the front end vs. GRAND JOB, R DISASTER, PRAYING, MYSTIC LAKE and ECLATANT and you've run the gauntlet. A finisher should have a major chance at success.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.#1-ECLATANT: Returned from more than 7 months away with a razor-sharp Gulfstream allowance win and is set for the stakes re-rise. The 2025 Forward Gal winner may be best at GP, but her Keeneland allowance win during the ’24 Fall Meet always counts for something here. The Into Mischiefs excel in 7-furlong Keeneland stakes with a whopping 7 different winners. Getting Irad Ortiz Jr. for the first time won’t hurt the cause.#2-STERLING SILVER: Blinkers go on this millionaire win machine with 11 victories and $1.4M banked. The New York-bred is proven in open company, but her 3: 0-0-0 local mark concerns given the horse-for-course nature that is Keeneland. She’s in consistently good form, so not sure why you make an equipment change on a 7-year-old with 38 trips to the post. Jose Ortiz rides for Anthony Margotta Jr.#3-CLICQUOT: Grade 1 Cotillion winner makes her first start since a fourth-place effort in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff. Trainer Brendan Walsh comes off a big 2025 at Keeneland that included this filly’s maiden breaker in the Spring Meet over 7 furlongs. Track and trip are on her ledger, so can’t dismiss on the reduction in trip in a race that has a ton of speed otherwise. Flavien Prat rides.#4-RAGTIME: Like Clicquot, she’s a 4-year-old returning off the bench and trimming the trip some after a third-place run in the 1-mile Chilukki. Her late-running sprint style was on display in winning the Dogwood and narrowly missing in Saratoga’s Test and Keeneland’s Raven Run. She’ll be flying late for Bill Mott and new rider John Velazquez with a big chance given the hot pace set-up.#5-GRAND JOB: The faster early of the uncoupled Mott-trained pair, expect Gulfstream’s Inside Information winner to contest the front. The Justify mare has won 4 of 6 since departing Ireland in 2023, racing only a few times each season. Junior Alvarado hops off Ragtime and lands on her stablemate. Other pace pressure could tell the tale, however.#6-R DISASTER: First of 2 Saffie Joseph Jr. trainees in the Madison, how can you fault a 14-for-16 mark in the exacta with 8 wins? She’s done it over multiple tracks sprinting so her first attempt at Keeneland may look a lot like the others. Tyler Gaffalione picks up the mount here, a Keeneland top-of-the-standings regular. She’ll be on or near the lead and it comes down to handling a ton of pressure over 7 furlongs, a little farther than her best.#7-PRAYING: Keeneland sprint stakes veteran is back for her first start since fading in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint at Del Mar. She won the Myrtlewood here in the ’24 Fall Meet and returned last fall to win the Grade 2 Thoroughbred Club of America over elders while just age 3. Robbie Medina puts Joel Rosario up as regular rider John Velazquez switches saddles to Ragtime on Saturday. She wants to be in the mix a length or two off the pacemakers, which could drag her along faster-than-desired in this particular scenario.#8-MYSTIC LAKE: Another blistering pace player, the second Saffie Joseph Jr. charge in the Madison has won 6 of her last 7, the wins coming over 5 different tracks. She set the tone here last year and faded to fourth under Irad Ortiz Jr. She loses him to Eclatant and her recent pilot Flavien Prat to Clicquot, while picking up Luis Saez – who is a maestro in local 7-furlong races. Outside post may help with her early juice, but the overall pace pressure in this race is the biggest threat to all the speed.Most Likely Exotics Contender:RAGTIME gets a great pace set-up and is 6-for-6 in the money lifetime including over the track and distance. Her long list of triple-digit BRIS Late Pace Figures really stand out against this expected race flow.Best Longshot Contender:No huge prices projected, but 6-1 morning line on CLIQUOT certainly interests with 5-1 on the top choice.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$70 win RAGTIME. $20 exacta RAGTIME over CLIQUOT. $10 exacta CLIQUOT over RAGTIME.

We are down to two weekends of Triple Crown preps meaning there are just four more chances to take advantage of our two-month long Money Back Special promotion. I am sure most of you are registered and aware of the parameters, but for those checking in for the first time when the calendar turns April, it is simple. Register on the promotional landing page and get up to $10 back on your first Win bet if your horse finishes second or third. It is a big weekend of races that will almost finalize the Kentucky Derby starters, so let’s get to my plays.Blue Grass (G1), Keeneland Race 11The first of three 100-point to the winner races over less than a 90-minute time span is the traditional Keeneland Spring Meet Saturday headliner. The Blue Grass (G1) goes to post at 6:22 eastern where #6 Further Ado was listed as the morning line favorite. If he runs back to his massive maiden win over this racetrack last fall, he will be a tough customer, but we did not see that horse in his long-planned return in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3). Perhaps, he moves forward in his second try off the bench, but I am concerned we saw the best of him as a 2YO.I love the chances of #2 Reagan’s Honor. The son of Honor A.P. did not take the standard approach on the Derby Trail, instead opting to run in an allowance for 3YOs+ after his wire-to-wire victory on January 17. Cherie DeVaux has given him the perfect amount of time to recover from his monster score in mid-February. I am expecting another big effort from the $140k Keeneland September 2022 purchase in his first start against stakes foes.Play: #4 Reagan’s Honor (5-2 ML)Wood Memorial (G2), Aqueduct Race 12The Wood is up twelve minutes later and unlike the Kentucky Derby, there looks to be a lot of speed signed on in the last edition of this race to be conducted at Aqueduct Race Track. The 9-furlong affair has two serious speed horses down on the inside in #1 Napoleon Solo and #2 Talk to Me Jimmy. With plenty of tactical speed types to the outside as well it should set things up for a closer. I am hopeful #5 Ocelli opts to run in this spot, not the Blue Grass because I really like his chances in New York. The son of Connect ran far better than looks in his sixth-place finish in the Virginia Derby after a less-than-ideal voyage in the Sam F. Davis. Perhaps, this colt is hard to ride or not the most athletic horse, but he has had things difficult in several of his races. The Whit Beckman trainee has raced against two of the four horses in my top tier for this year’s Run for the Roses and due to get the right setup. Joe Ramos is back onboard with the blinkers coming off for the first time in 2026.Play: Ocelli (20-1 ML)Santa Anita Derby (G1), Santa Anita Race 10The final Grade 1 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is conducted at the Great Race Place at 7:46 eastern/4:46 local time. The featured event on a strong 12-race card has two Bob Baffert runners listed as the two ML choices. I am not sure #2 Potente will go favored over #1 Cherokee Nation, but only one of the two has the upside I am looking for. #2 Potente was all out to beat a modest group in the San Felipe (G2), while Cherokee Nation woke up and ran off the screen breaking his maiden against a field of 3YOs and up. I much prefer Cherokee Nation of the two, but expect him to get over bet, so will take a swing against both with #7 Intrepido. The son of Maximus Mischief makes his second start of the year after a runner-up effort in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in January. He broke sharp and was part of the early pace that day, but with the outside draw and speed to his inside, I expect jockey Hector Berrios to opt to relax this ridgling a bit in the early stages. If he is able to do so, I think he should be full of run late. He should be a fair price. Hopefully, he runs back to his American Pharoah (G1) effort over this same surface.Play: #7 Intrepido (7-2 ML)

The two-day opening weekend at Keeneland concludes in Saturday’s Race 11 finale with the $1.25 million Blue Grass. Only the Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners than its 23, but it’s been since Street Sense in 2007 that the connection has been made – and unfathomably since Strike the Gold in 1991 that a horse has won the state’s two biggest races for the 3-year-old boys. The defection of Kentucky Derby Future Wager individual favorite Paladin due to injury has opened the door.Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Santa Anita Derby. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play the $5,000 Exacta-Thon involving the Keeneland and Santa Anita full cards on Saturday.Let’s meet the contenders for the Blue Grass (Race 11):#1-TALKIN: Trainer Danny Gargan won the Belmont 2 years ago with Dornoch, who finished fourth in the Blue Grass en route to his Triple Crown tests. He’s back with this son of 2018 Blue Grass winner Good Magic but will need a big move forward after failing to hit the board in the Remsen and Tampa Bay Derby. Talkin fired a bullet workout March 28 in Florida before heading north and will have Joel Rosario back in the saddle.#2-CLASS PRESIDENT: Rebel Stakes winner has one of the signature scores in this field and looks to give Todd Pletcher a record-padding fifth Blue Grass Stakes victory. The son of Uncle Mo has won 2 of 3, finishing second to elite sprinter Solitude Dude in the Swale. His nose victory in the Rebel over Silent Tactic stood up on quality when that rival came back to be clearly second-best in the Arkansas Derby last week. John Velazquez rides.#3-GREAT WHITE: Turfway winter warrior exits an upset victory in the John Battaglia Memorial on Feb. 21. Trainer John Ennis has pointed him for the Blue Grass since, while taking the same path as 2024 Blue Grass third-place finisher Epic Ride. Great White’s 2-for-3 mark includes surprises at 11-1 and 15-1 odds. Alex Achard remains aboard the gray Volatile gelding.#4-REAGAN’S HONOR: Wire-to-wire Fair Grounds maiden and allowance winner in 2 starts this year has progressed rapidly and will be tested in a stakes for the first time. Trainer Cherie DeVaux already has Golden Tempo qualified to the Kentucky Derby on points and could add a second starter to her first foray for the roses. Jose Ortiz, who guided Good Magic to the 2018 Blue Grass crown, will pilot this Honor A.P. colt.#5-CREOLE CHROME: Louisiana-bred could provide early pace after wiring a state-bred route stakes at Fair Grounds. Trainer Joe Sharp turns to Tyler Gaffalione for the first time on this Volatile colt. That rider scored the 2024 Blue Grass on late-running Sierra Leone, but this 3-for-4 former sprinter is expected to show opposite tactics.#6-FURTHER ADO (pictured): Burst onto the scene during the Keeneland Fall Meet with a whopping 20-length maiden victory after a couple of modest showings at Saratoga last summer. He fulfilled that ascending promise by winning Churchill’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes in November and went into the winter as one of the Derby favorites for trainer Brad Cox. His Tampa Bay Derby second to The Puma looked better after that rival came back to run a strong runner-up in the Florida Derby. Irad Ortiz Jr. returns on this son of Gun Runner, sire of ’24 Blue Grass winner Sierra Leone.#7-OCELLI: Reportedly will scratch in favor of the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct.#8-MOONSTROCITY: Maiden will be outsider on the tote after a pair of unsuccessful attempts at Gulfstream on dirt and turf. Belmont Stakes-winning trainer Jena Antonucci takes a long shot to get back to the Triple Crown with this son of Tiz the Law, himself a Belmont Stakes winner. Jose Morelos has the call.#9-OTTINO: Withers Stakes third-place finisher was cross-entered in the Wood Memorial in his New York winter base, but reportedly will scratch to contest the Blue Grass instead. Chad Brown, whose since-injured Paladin had been aimed here, looks to keep an even-year Blue Grass streak going after 2022’s victory by Zandon and the 2024 success of Sierra Leone. His other win in this race came in 2018 with Good Magic. Ottinho is 1-for-3 with his only victory coming at the 1-1/8 miles distance in play Saturday. Two-time reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Flavien Prat – who previously partnered here on Zandon – has the call.

The racing week at Santa Anita Park gets an early start meaning the Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 and Sunset Six do as well. That’s right, on Thursday racing occurs both in Hallandale Beach and Arcadia meaning the $30,568 carryover from Sunday in the Sunset Six will be live beginning at 3:47 eastern when Gulfstream Park’s seventh race commences.But wait, Xpressbet and 1/ST BET are giving horseplayers an extra reason to play on Thursday afternoon. It is our new April promotion called “Blooming Bankrolls.” It occurs each Tuesday and Thursday and is simple. Just bet $100 on the select track listed on the promotional landing page and earn $10. The best news of all is Santa Anita Park is our select track for Thursday and we have opted to include Sunset Six wagers as part of the promotion making it a no brainer to get play with us! Here are my thoughts on the player friendly two-track wager that includes the last three races at both 1/ST Racing tracks.Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.Race 7 Gulfstream Park:Grade: C+Main Ticket: 1 DramaBackups: 3 All I DoForecast: The sequence gets started with this $17,500 claimer for 3YO fillies where #1 Drama was made the 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker Brian Nadeau. The Florida-bred drops in for a tag for the first time, draws the rail, and is likely the speed of the speed. She comes in off a runner-up effort to another horse that would be heavily favored in this spot making her the clear one to beat. If she loses though, it is likely to be a runner from off the pace that takes advantage of a contentious first half mile. #3 All I Do fits the profile. The Win Win Win filly makes her first start off the claim for trainer Jose D’Angelo. I am not sure she is good enough, but if they go fast early, she should be rallying late under Samy Camacho.Race 8 Gulfstream Park:Grade: B-Main Ticket: 7 LosmastixBackups: 3 Bronze BulletForecast: #3 Bronze Bullet is expected to be a significant favorite in this state-bred first-level allowance event at 5.5-furlongs over the all-weather. The Leinster colt is the class of the field and gets the best rider in Luis Saez, but perhaps 5.5-furlongs is a bit sharp for him after a pair of turf routes to kick off his 3YO season. I will use him as a backup since he is an obvious major player, but I prefer #7 Losmastix. Two-back the Antonio Sano trainee broke a bit slowly from the rail and was in catch up mode chasing a dominant odds-on winner. Then he moved off the inside and won going away. I love the outside draw for this colt that has hit the board in all four starts to begin his career.Race 9 Gulfstream Park:Grade: B+Main Ticket: 2 Noche de DamasBackups: NoneForecast: I am going to take a stand in the sequence with #2 Noche de Damas in this optional claimer over the turf where I expect most horseplayers to go at least a couple deep. Combine that with her 9-2-ML price and it could really prove a worthwhile single. I like this Classic Empire filly moving back to the turf after a third-place finish last out over the all-weather. The William Tharrenos trainee put forth a strong late rally two-back in her lone start over the turf finishing second to a runner that would be favored in here. The pace has a chance to be contentious, which would bode extremely well for this late running Kentucky-bred. Jose Morelos will ride for the first time.Race 6 Santa Anita Park:Grade: C+Main Ticket: 5 Army ManBackups: NoneForecast: From a strategic perspective it is probably wise to single in this first-level allowance over the turf unless you like one of the two prices in this compact group of five. Unfortunately, I do not and will opt to single #5 Army Man. The Florida-bred looks like lone speed to me assuming stablemate #1 Bust Out does not opt to go from his inside draw on the stretch out. The Michael McCarthy runner ran poorly last out in the Pasadena, but was a big price that afternoon after breaking his maiden two-back over this course. Emisael Jaramillo has had an outstanding first winter in Arcadia. I am confident he will be the aggressor in a race that also kicks off Santa Anita’s $3, 15% takeout late Pick 3.Race 7 Santa Anita Park:Grade: CMain Ticket: 3 Bolt Supremacy; 1 Magic Connection; 7 NovinophobiaBackups: NoneForecast: I lack a strong opinion other in this non-winners of two claimer over the main track other than I am not willing to single likeliest winner #1 Magic Connection. This son of Connect has finished second in back-to-back starts at this level, so he is the logical one to break through for his second win, but he certainly had a fair chance in his last two. Hopefully, #3 Bolt Supremacy bounces back off being eased in a grass race last out. The fact he is back quickly suggests all is fine.Race 8 Santa Anita Park:Grade: B-Main Ticket: 2 Robin With a WhyBackups: 3 Sensational Dream; 4 We Salute You; 7 Kitty Mauren; 6 Queen KimbaForecast: I am fading 7-5-ML favorite #5 Bint Al Dandy in the finale. The 5YO mare drops in for a tag for the first time after having several chances with good trips as the favorite against better. There is no doubt she is capable of besting these off the drop, but I simply do not trust her to seal the deal until she proves she can. #2 Robin With a Why is the one I like most. She also drops in for a tag for the first time and adds blinkers for the first time. I am hopeful jockey Edwin Maldonado can get more speed out of this gal. If so, I think she gets the jump on the chalk and finds a way against a modest group. If not, it is anyone’s race.

NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $57,655 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $51,319 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 3 | 5:11 pm ETKEY RACESTurf Paradise | Race 3 | 5:11 pm ET | Cactus Wren StakesTurf Paradise | Race 8 | 7:38 pm ET | Cactus Flower StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXMahoning Valley | Race 5 | 2:07 pm ETTampa Bay Downs | Race 5 | 2:25 pm ETTurf Paradise | Race 8 | 7:41 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHKevin Eikleberry | Turf Paradise | 4 of 5 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Parx | jockey Yedsit Hazlewood | 3 wins, 1 second from 6 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Multiple-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainers Bob Baffert and Doug O’Neill offer a pair of prospects each in Saturday’s Grade 1 $500,000 Santa Anita Derby as they look to solidify potential returns to the first Saturday in May. Meanwhile, the top-3 finishers in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes are set for a re-match at The Great Race Place, while the Grade 1 American Pharoah winner awaits.Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, Blue Grass at Keeneland and the Santa Anita Derby. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play the $5,000 Exacta-Thon involving the Keeneland and Santa Anita full cards on Saturday. Let’s meet the contenders for the Santa Anita Derby (Race 10):#1-CHEROKEE NATION: While it took 6 starts to break his maiden, the Feb. 27 romp by this $1.1 million Not This Time colt may have been worth the wait. It took the Kentucky Jockey Club and Robert B. Lewis Stakes fifth-place finisher into another speed stratosphere for Bob Baffert, who is poised for a record-padding tenth Santa Anita Derby title – a race he’s shockingly not won since 2019. Florent Geroux will ride for the first time.#2-POTENTE: Baffert’s second of two Santa Anita Derby shots Saturday, Potente upset the San Felipe at 8-1 odds to increase his record to 2-for-2 lifetime. His pair of scores have come by less than 1 length in combined margin, showing a nose for the wire and an ability to win on the lead and from off the pace. The $2.4 million Into Mischief colt once again will be ridden by Juan Hernandez.#3-VIRTRUVIAN MAN: First start of 2026 and first stakes bid for this Kentucky transplant who raced at all 5 of that state’s Thoroughbred venues during his freshman campaign. Doug O’Neill trains the Vino Rosso colt who has a Keeneland maiden victory topping his ledger. Antonio Fresu rides as O’Neill seeks a third Santa Anita Derby title.#4-ROBUSTA: Doug O’Neill’s more-fancied chance to follow the Santa Anita Derby success of I’ll Have Another (2012) and Goldencents (2013), Robusta exits a narrow, runner-up finish in the San Fan Felipe. Assuredly will be the shortest price of his career after 67-1, 36-1, 24-1 and 70-1 offerings in his 4 prior starts, which include a Jan. 9 maiden score. Home-bred son of Accelerate for Calumet Farms will be ridden by regular pilot Emisael Jaramillo, who also guided Cherokee Nation to his maiden win last out.#5-SO HAPPY: San Vicente Stakes winner captured his first 2 sprints but couldn’t sustain his speed in the 1-1/16 miles San Felipe when finishing third. The Mark Glatt trainee has a pedigree made for Churchill Downs if he can find the stamina to get there; he’s grandson to Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver and Breeders’ Cup Classic-at-CD winner Blame. Mike Smith has ridden in each start.#6-START THE RIDE: Rallying Cal Cup Derby winner Jan. 17 at Santa Anita never got involved when a well-beaten sixth in the San Felipe. The Dan Blacker trainee was 26-1 that day and will need a big move forward under regular rider Armando Ayuso to turn the tables. Upstart colt will hope for a fast pace to help his late interest.#7-INTREPIDO (pictured, #2 outside): Grade 1 American Pharoah Stakes winner over the Santa Anita surface at age 2, this Jeff Mullins trainee looks for a signature score at 3. His lone start this year was a narrow runner-up in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes in February and was put away by design to be freshened for the Santa Anita Derby. Maximus Mischief colt leads the field with $312,800. Mullins looks for his first SA Derby trophy since securing 3 straight from 2003-’05 (Buddy Gil, Castledale, Buzzard’s Bay).

After a weekend that saw Commandment and Renegade jump to the top of the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with their off-the-pace victories in the Florida Derby (G1) and Arkansas Derby (G1), it is time to start thinking about another massive Saturday. The Blue Grass (G1), Wood Memorial (G2), and Santa Anita Derby (G1) will help us determine who is in and who is likely out in this year’s Run for the Roses. So, without further ado, let’s dive into another edition of Prep School.Re-Evaluating My Top Tier Heading into April:Heading into last Saturday, I had a four-horse top tier of Chief Wallabee, Commandment, Reagan’s Honor, and Renegade. I am not making any major adjustments heading into April. Commandment beat Chief Wallabee for the second consecutive race and is almost certain to be one of the favorites on the first Saturday in May, but I still think the Chief can turn the tables in Louisville. Neither of them is likely to be my top choice come Derby Day, but neither is close to a toss either. Obviously, Renegade’s performance in Hot Springs felt good for my future wagers, but now the Todd Pletcher trainee is likely to be a relatively short price in the Kentucky Derby. He is certainly tops on my list with Reagan’s Honor yet to compete, but when it comes to gambling, he will be tough to push all-in on. His running style will leave him a lot to do and he may not have a ton of pace to chase. More obviously to come soon.Most Disappointing Horses Last Weekend: Nearly and Blackout TimeNearly is the obvious answer to this weekly segment of Prep School. The Centennial Farms colt took a ton of early money and surprisingly went off the 7-5 top choice, but failed the public big time with his off the board run despite a clean trip. It remains to be seen what is up next for the son of Not This Time, but he appears overmatched against the top of this crop. Others are probably not surprised by Blackout Time’s no show in Arkansas, but I was. The Kenny McPeek trainee caught my eye as a 2YO and was expected to peak in this race and ideally in Louisville, but clearly, he has not moved forward as a 3YO. I am sure McPeek will still give him shots at glory, but my futures bet on this guy is in the paper shredder.Most Likely Pacesetter (as of March 31) in the 2026 Kentucky Derby: ????Honestly, heading into the final big weekend of Triple Crown preps, the lack of speed signed on to this race is worthy of discussion. A lot can change on Saturday, but as of now very few horses that have qualified for this year’s Derby possess early speed. That does not mean the pace will be a crawl given the field size and what is on the line, but trying to come from well out of it could be a tough task in 2026.Who can change this? There appears to be a lot of speed entered in this year’s Wood Memorial, but that could set things up for a closer. However, a return to form from Napoleon Solo or another big run on the front end from Talk to Me Jimmy would have major implications on the potential race shape in Louisville. A number of winners in the Santa Anita Derby could also change the landscape since we know California speed is serious. If Cherokee Nation shows speed from the inside and runs another big one on or near the front end on Saturday, he could have a pace advantage as one of the Kentucky Derby’s top choices. We will see what happens in the Blue Grass, but at quick glance at probables, those entered are unlikely to make the lead come Derby time. It will be fascinating to see how it shakes out since hot paces have been the thing of late in North America’s biggest race.Most to Prove This Weekend: Further AdoBrad Cox appears to have another big shot for a Derby win in 2026 with Commandment, but certainly would love to have a strong 1-2 punch heading into the first Saturday in May. Further Ado, not Commandment was the colt expected to be Cox’s best shot earlier in the campaign after he ended his 2YO season with a victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2). The son of Gun Runner underwhelmed in his runner-up effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), so not only does he need points to secure his spot in the gate, but he needs to run big to be taken seriously at Churchill Downs. He ran a hole in the wind last time he competed over the Keeneland main track. We will learn a lot about Further Ado and his chances in the Kentucky Derby on Saturday afternoon.