Best Plays for Thursday, July 3, 2025For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.__________________________________________________________Saratoga 7: Post: 4:20 ET.Win Play: 9-Scheduling DudeDegree of Confidence: Very good.Underneath: none.Forecast: Scheduling Dude is a son of World of Trouble from an Artie Schiller mare and therefore is bred to move up a ton on grass. Today - finally - he gets his first chance to show it In an abbreviated turf sprint. Based on our pace projection, the R. Dutrow-trained gelding could be quick enough to clear the field from his outside draw and never look back, just as he did in his two career victories earlier in his career when he opened up early and widened from there. Hot riding J. Ortiz takes the call and won’t be waiting around for anybody. Yes, ‘Dude is a 3-yeear-old facing older, but at the price (10-1 morning line) he’s still worth a bit of a gamble.__________________________________________________________Saratoga Race: 8. Post: 5:03 ET.Win Play: 4-Midway MemoriesDegree of Confidence: Good.Underneath: 6-Play with Fire; 2-Love and Poetry.Forecast: Midway Memories is one of three C. Brown-trained entrants in today’s Wild Applause Stakes for sophomore turf routing fillies and is the least accomplished of the trio, having raced just twice and just coming off a win from much softer maidens. But this could be a very good filly. The daughter of Cairo Prince was thoroughly professional in victory, switching off nicely early and then quickening impressively when turned loose in the final furlong to graduate going away while shading 30 seconds for the final five sixteenths of a mile. She’ll need to step forward again today but could easily do so, and at a decent price (6-1 morning line), so let’s press with her on top in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics while backing her up with a couple of main contenders.__________________________________________________________Saratoga 11: Post: 5:48 ET.Win Play: Bint Al Dandy (Ire)Degree of Confidence: Strong.Underneath: Opera de Ravel (Fr).Forecast: Bint Al Dandy (Ire) is better than her first two career outings show on paper and we’re expecting her to confirm it today in this maiden turf route affair for fillies and mares. An excellent runner-up when second in her debut in Ireland last year, she was sent to the States in the fall but blew her best chance with a slow start when fifth behind a runaway winner in a hot affair at Kentucky Downs. She returns off a 10 month layoff with a work tab that should have her fit enough, will race without blinkers for a clever outfit, and has all of the makings of a very live item under one of the stable’s “go-to” riders. Her inside draw ensures a ground saving trip, so a career top effort at 6-1 on the morning line by this Irish-bred import can be expected.__________________________________________________________

The Lead:Named for the famed, 5-time Horse of the Year, the Kelso Stakes has made Saratoga its home since 2023. This Saturday it's part of a July 4 Racing Festival lineup that co-features the Sanford Stakes and the Belmont Oaks Invitational. The Kelso goes as Race 10 of 12 and will be at a mile on turf.Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet earn 5X 1/ST Rewards Points on all wagers made during the July 4 Racing Festival at Saratoga, Thursday through Sunday.​Field Depth:This lineup is overqualified for the Grade 3 level. Grade 1 winner WIN FOR THE MONEY is joined by Grade 2 winners THINK BIG, NEAT and ARZAK, the latter Grade 1-placed. DONEGAL MOMENTUM is a Grade 3 winner, who joins MOUNTAIN BEAR as Grade 1-placed contenders.​​Pace:DONEGAL MOMENTUM could be lone speed in a field that doesn't have much other early pace projection. WIN FOR THE MONEY could be more forward than most here, while stretch-out sprinters THINK BIG and ARZAK haven't shown speed going shorter, but might be more inclined around 2 turns.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.#1-NEAT: Grade 2 Hall of Fame Stakes winner over this course last summer, the Rob Atras trainee has lost 5 in a row since. Form further clouded by failing to complete the course in traffic in Pimlico's Dinner Party in May. Reunites with Junior Alvarado, who guided him to 2 stakes wins in 2024.#2-INTELLECT: French export has 2 minor placings since joining Chad Brown's shedrow, including a runner-up in the Grade 3 Poker as the favorite last out behind Kelso rival Donegal Momentum. Fast pace or slow, he hasn't finished with as much flair as needed since stretching out around 2 turns and was a 1-turn specialist overseas. Good draw under Flavien Prat for this, however.#3-THINK BIG: All 5 turf starts have come in sprints, winning 4 of those, for trainer Mike Stidham. Hot-riding Jose Ortiz is coming off a huge Churchill Downs title-winning meet. Broke poorly only Saratoga try, but didn't do anything thereafter in the Grade 1 Jaipur, leaving some concern about course affinity. Failed around 2 turns on dirt at Keeneland in only such non-sprint try.#4-DONEGAL MOMENTUM: Wire-to-wire winner of the Poker Stakes (pictured) over this course and distance June 5 during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival, he gets another gift-wrapped potential pace scenario. Jockey Javier Castellano has been one of the best front-end turf riders in the game for decades and pilots a super-consistent animal in all his turf starts. Catch him to win.#5-NANTASKET BEACH: Red-hot former claimer has won 4 of his last 5 starts, 3 of 4 since claimed by Lauren Robson. Held form from Gulfstream to Churchill Downs and will test the Saratoga lawn for the first time Saturday. Julien Leparoux returns in the saddle aboard this 6-year-old.#6-MOUNTAIN BEAR: Former Aidan O'Brien charge makes his second start of 2025 and second for trainer Wesley Ward after finishing second to Kelso rival Nantasket Beach in a Churchill allowance May 25. Tough draw that day from 11-hole and classy colt has placings in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf, Turf Mile at Keeneland and multiple group stakes in the UK.#7-ARZAK: Top-class turf sprinter has lost 8 straight and likely this stretch out in distance is an admission that he has lost a step at age 7. His Saratoga form hasn't been poor, but a 1-for-6 local record indicates it's not his favorite surface either. Irad Ortiz Jr. rides and did guide him to his last victory, but that was the April 2024 Shakertown at Keeneland.#8-WIN FOR THE MONEY: 13-1 upset winner of last year's Grade 1 Woodbine Mile likely using this race as a prep for that event coming up in September. The Kelso marks his first try on the Saratoga grass for trainer Mark Casse and his first start since tiring late in the 9-furlong Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream to close January. Three-week gap in the workout tab in June might put him a race or 2 away from his best.MAIN TRACK ONLY ENTRANTS: WYNSTOCK, YO DADDY, BANK FRENZY and GAME WARDEN compete only if this races comes off the grass. It's difficult early to project who might be left in the lineup in that situation. YO DADDY and BANK FRENZY interest most looking at the brilliance needed from a dirt miler if called upon.Most Likely Exotics Contender:DONEGAL MOMENTUM is 2-for-2 over a course in which the rest of the field is 2-for-9 combined and has a pace advantage. Even if he gets run down late, hard to imagine him off the ticket.Best Longshot Contender:NANTASKET BEACH defeated Mountain Bear last out and probably goes a more attractive price once again based on connections.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$100 win DONEGAL MOMENTUM.

The July 4 Racing Festival opens Thursday at Saratoga and provides 4 additional days at the Spa before the 2025 summer meet gets underway next week. The 11-race card co-features the Victory Ride Stakes in Race 3 and the Wild Applause in Race 8. Here are a couple of my keys to the day.Saratoga | Race 5 | 3:21 pm ET#2 Moon Gate (5-1 morning line odds) drops in class to face a level of competition that should give her the edge. Sharp trainer Arnaud Delacour goes sprint-route-sprint in her last 3 starts and the benefit Thursday will be the added endurance from her most recent try over a farther distance. Win bet #2.Saratoga | Race 9 | 5:38 pm ET#1 Fromanothamutha (4-1 morning line odds) has an advantageous rail draw, especially when in possession of early speed, for 1-1/8 miles on the Saratoga dirt. Can take advantage of the ground-saving run with a short dash into the first turn under a hustling rider Ricardo Santana Jr. Past races at Saratoga are pretty solid when meeting stronger than these despite an 0-5 local record. Win bet #1.

Normally, the New York Racing Association’s big Independence Day races are held in New York City, but not this year where racing gets rolling early in upstate New York. Yes, that’s right we get an early start at Saratoga this week, including a very strong card on the Fourth of July. The slate includes a trio of graded stakes, headlined the $1M Belmont Derby (G1). Here are a few horses I will be leaning on (assuming the price remains at the ML odds or higher) on the holiday card.Race 4My first play of the day comes in this MSW at 1 1/16-miles over the Inner Turf where I expect #7 Tom Collins to take plenty of public support after finishing third in a similar spot during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival last month. The Frosted colt should probably find a way to hit the board again, but has had good chances with little success in his last couple of tries.I prefer the more lightly-raced #5 Profound. The son of Twirling Candy debuted last summer at the Spa and was sent off the 2-1-post time favorite for trainer Cherie DeVaux. He had some trouble that day, failed to the hit board, and was given time off until Kentucky Oaks Day where he came back and battled on the lead along the rail in a race that fell apart late. The $240k Keeneland September 2023 purchase puts back-to-back races together for the first time in his career and has clearly been well-meant from the start. Expect a career best run under jockey Jose Ortiz.Play: #5 Profound//Race 9: Belmont Derby (G1)There is a noticeable lack of early speed in this 9-furlong affair for 3YOs run over the Saratoga lawn. This should benefit Florida-bred #1 Tank most. The Adios Charlie colt leaves the Sunshine State for the first time after rattling off a trio of wins against lesser dating back to the end of March. He lures Luis Saez and is dangerous on the front end, but the class hike combined with the added ground leads me to believe at least one horse will get to him in the final sixteenth of a mile.#5 Test Score is not a speed horse, but the son of Lookin At Lucky should have enough early foot to find a comfortable spot in the second tier, hopefully in the pocket a couple of lengths off Tank. The Amerman Racing homebred has hit the board in all 3 starts as a 3YO, including a runner-up effort last out in the American Turf (G1) when he was down on the inside on a weekend where the outside was certainly the place to be on the Churchill Downs grass. Test Score still finished strong to earn second and has a big shot to earn his first Grade 1 if jockey Manny Franco can avoid leaving his colt with too much to do late.Play: #5 Test Score//Race 10: Suburban (G2)There is absolutely no doubt Big Cap (G1) winner #4 Locked is the one to beat in this year’s Suburban. The Gun Runner colt ran one of the best races this year two-back at Santa Anita Park, but regressed massively two months later in the Alysheba (G2). To be fair, he did not have things his way that afternoon in Louisville, but still should have put in more of a run. If the Todd Pletcher trainee gets back to his effort out west they are running for second, but that is a big if at his likely price after his run last out.I will take a swing against the likely heavy chalk with #8 Awesome Aaron. The Practical Joke gelding has improved steadily since being claimed by trainer Norm Casse for $40k last September. Casse removed the blinkers two starts back and the 6YO has taken another big step forward evidenced by his win going away in the Pimlico Special (G3) despite being caught three-wide throughout. There is not a ton of speed signed on in this race either, so hopefully Irad Ortiz Jr. is aggressive out of the gate. I like this one’s chances of running another big one in his first start in New York since the barn change.Play: #8 Awesome AaronHappy 4th!

Prairie Meadows race fans will have a lot to celebrate this Fourth of July weekend. The track’s All-American Extravaganza will feature fireworks after a special 10-race card Thursday (July 3), followed by a two-day Festival of Racing that includes an All-Stakes Pick 3 wager on the July 4 card and the featured $300,000 Iowa Derby on Saturday (July 5). Here’s a look at the Friday Pick 3 lineup of $100,000 stakes:PrM 7th race (7:38 p.m. EST) -- Five of the eight 2-year-old fillies in the Prairie Golden Lassie arrive from various tracks off front-end victories. SASSY C W is a deserving 8-5 morning-line favorite, earning a one-of-a-kind ‘rocket ship’ comment in her debut win, then conquering stakes rivals at Saratoga under a ‘continued hand-ride’ despite stumbling at the start and breaking last. But KICKIN was visually impressive, too, in her first start, blowing past the 9-5 pace setter on the turn at Hawthorne and exploding in the final sixteenth to win at 4-1/2F by 7-1/4 lengths. She is a must use in the Pick 3 and a good flat bet at anywhere near her 6-1 morning line price. BEST FRIEND rallied into photo-finish view with the dueling favorites, earned the top speed figure in today’s field when finishing third in her Churchill Downs debut and will have plenty of pace to rally into.PrM 8th race (8:06 p.m. EST) -- There’s little room for error in the Saylorville Stakes that unites seven fillies and mares with a combined 25-for-52 record at 6F. OEUVRE became the field’s lone millionaire with – get this – nine consecutive stakes victories in dirt sprints dating back to 2022. LEGADEMA makes her seasonal debut off a six-week series of workouts at Churchill Downs. She raced only twice since she won a 6F stakes here 14 months ago, finishing third in a pair of 7F tests won by multiple graded stakes-placed fillies Emery (5-11, $867k) and My Mane Squeeze (6-16, $1.15 million). BOURBON BREEZE added blinkers three starts ago and is in top form for her first stakes attempt. She altered course but closed strongly to win an allowance sprint on a muddy Keeneland track, then held off a trio of closers to repeat at Oaklawn Park in 1:10.4, one second off a 3-year-old stakes race for the boys on the same card. CHARLEE MAY is winless the last two years, but she plays to a steady beat and had a good tune-up over the Prairie Meadows dirt, rallying for third and ‘finishing with good response’ while 4-wide in the Prairie Rose Stakes last month.PrM 9th race (8:34 p.m. EST) -- GLENGARRY (pictured) ran to a trio of blistering workouts in May, charging furiously in a near miss against a front-end allowance winner two back, then winning the $50,000 Ed Skinner under confident handling for his fourth consecutive stakes win sprinting. SECOND I D set a pressured pace and pulled away to win a 5-1/2F allowance in 1:03-3/5, his first start after two years away. He is a ‘bounce’ candidate but must be respected off that effort with a perfect three-race record intact. REDLINE posted 90-plus Beyer speed figures in his last six starts on a fast track, winning three stakes along the way. The streak ended on a sloppy track in the Speightstown Sprint at Lone Star Park when he rallied from far back for fourth behind a pair of double-digit longshots.Suggested $1 Pick 3PrM 7th Race: 5, 7PrM 8th Race: 3, 4, 5, 6PrM 9th Race: 1, 6Cost: $16

NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $233,102 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | $237,896 | Assiniboia Downs | begins Race 3 | 9:25 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY CANTERBURY PARK WINNERCanterbury Park | Race 1 | 6:10 pm ET | #2 Stuck N Snow (32%)KEY RACESAssiniboia Downs | Race 3 | 9:25 pm ET | Frank Arnason Memorial Sire StakesHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 9 | Bradford Stakes (AQHA)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXDelaware Park | Race 5 | 2:30 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 7 | 5:16 pm ETCanterbury Park | Race 6 | 8:40 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHRandall Russell | Presque Isle Downs | 4 of 5 entrants 7-2 or less morning line oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Thistledown, Mountaineer | jockey Alexander Chavez | 2 wins each trackPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Wednesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Regional Derby season is in full swing post-Triple Crown and those looking to carve out some space for class and cash will hit the Midwest this holiday weekend. Saturday’s Grade 3 $300,000 Indiana Derby tops the bill at Horseshoe Indianapolis, while the $250,000 Iowa Derby shares the Cornhusker Day card at Prairie Meadows.Let’s meet the contenders for the Indiana Derby (Race 12, 6:33 pm ET):#1-PUBLISHER: Eight-race maiden exits a 14th-place Kentucky Derby finish and continues to be aggressively spotted by trainer Steve Asmussen and the ownership. Colt by 2015 Triple Crown winner will be making a fifth straight graded-stakes attempt, his ledger including a runner-up in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby behind Sandman to prove his mettle. Evenly matched in 2 Oaklawn decisions against Indiana Derby rival Coal Battle. Asmussen won this race in 2007 (Zanjero) and 2011 (Wilburn).#2-MASTER CONTROLLER: Tapiture colt makes a significant class leap after wiring maiden claiming sprinters at Churchill Downs on May 24, his first start of 2025. The Brittany Vanden Berg trainee finished out of the money in all 3 starts as a juvenile. Potential pace player under Chris Emigh could make the lead and rail in his ambitious upset bid.#3-COAL BATTLE: Four-time stakes winner at Delta Downs, Remington Park and Oaklawn’s Smarty Jones and Grade 2 Rebel, he looks to snap a 3-race skid that includes third-place efforts in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby and most recently Churchill’s Grade 3 Matt Winn. The only time he’s been out of the money in 8 dirt starts was his 11th-place run in the Kentucky Derby. Trainer Lonnie Briley turns back to jockey Corey Lanerie, who rode him last out in the Winn.#4-SHAN: Ed Moger Jr. claimed this Shancelot colt for $50,000 last November at Churchill after winning a Horseshoe Indy allowance prior when under the tutelage of Steve Asmussen. Shan has yet to win in 7 starts for Moger, including a pair of claiming sprint runner-up tries at Churchill in his last pair. He’s yet to win around 2 turns and 3: 0-0-1 in stakes. Evin Roman will pilot.#5-CHUNK OF GOLD: Ohio Derby runner-up June 21 runs back on just 2 weeks’ rest after being outkicked late by Mo Plex as the 6-5 favorite at Thistledown. Trainer Ethan West once again turns to jockey Jareth Loveberry, who piloted this one to runner-up finishes in the Grade 2 Risen Star and Grade 2 Louisiana Derby before a ninth-place Kentucky Derby effort. Son of Preservationist could once again vie for favoritism in the Indiana Derby lineup.#6-TIP TOP THOMAS: Lightly raced Todd Pletcher trainee makes his fifth career start on Saturday and exits a wire-to-wire Aqueduct allowance mile around 1 turn. Last year’s Grade 1 Champagne runner-up hooked a tough Keeneland allowance in April for his return from 6 months on the bench, finishing fourth to Gunmetal. Pletcher aims for his first Indiana Derby victory, last finishing fourth here in 2013 with Micromanage. Veteran John Velazquez has the call, replacing Irad Ortiz Jr., who will be riding at Saratoga this weekend.#7-BIG TRUZZ: Late bloomer debuted an impressive Keeneland sprint winner on April 12 for Brian Lynch. Chased Patch Adams in both a Kentucky Derby Day allowance sprint and in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens at Saratoga over 7 furlongs. Declan Cannon named to ride the colt by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Notably, Big Truzz is cross-entered in Saturday’s Iowa Derby and a final decision as to his intentions has yet to be released.#8-BROTHA KENY: Bill Morey trainee never got uncorked on the Tapeta this winter-spring at Turfway Park, but has blossomed on dirt at Horseshoe Indy. Mo Town gelding has won back-to-back routes, an April 24 maiden and a May 28 entry-level allowance by more than 3 lengths. It took 7 tries to break his maiden and this will be his first stakes bid, but he has some local affinity in his corner.#9-INSTANT REPLAY: Texas Derby and Bath House Row Stakes winner aims for a third straight score and, if successful, could give trainer Brad Cox a third straight Indiana Derby victory. Cox won the last pair with Verifying and Dragoon Guard and also secured the Indiana Derby trophy in 2020 with Shared Sense. A fourth win would tie Bob Baffert’s race record for wins by a trainer. Instant Replay has won 4 of his last 6, each time as favorite, and could be the chalk Saturday under Luan Machado.\\Let’s meet the contenders for the Iowa Derby (Race 7, 7:38 pm ET):#1-AUTHENTIC GALLOP: Son of 2020 Kentucky Derby winner Authentic has finished off the board in the Virginia Derby and the Sir Barton at Pimlico in his last 2 starts. Churchill-based colt has been working on turf of late, but gets another try on dirt after a pair of wins this winter at Oaklawn. Brian Hernandez Jr. rides for the first time aboard this Tom Amoss trainee.#2-BIG TRUZZ: Late bloomer debuted an impressive Keeneland sprint winner on April 12 for Brian Lynch. Chased Patch Adams in both a Kentucky Derby Day allowance sprint and in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens at Saratoga over 7 furlongs. Declan Cannon named to ride the colt by 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Notably, Big Truzz is cross-entered in Saturday’s Indiana Derby and a final decision as to his intentions has yet to be released.#3-ITSMYBIRTHDAY: Texas Derby runner-up at Lone Star Park for trainer Robertino Diodoro looks for his first stakes score. He’s 3-for-3 in maiden and allowance races, 0-for-3 at the stakes level, finishing off the board in the Sunland Derby as well as Keeneland’s Lafayette prior to his improved Texas effort last out. Colt hails from the first crop of hot young sire Vekoma.#4-MAGNITUDE: (pictured): Massive performance Feb. 15 in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes had this one among the Triple Crown trail early favorites for the classics before being sidelined by an ankle chip. Returned to the workout tab in May and has 6t perfectly spaced drills at Churchill Downs for the comeback spot, where he’ll be strongly favored. Four-time Iowa Derby-winning trainer Steve Asmussen looks to surpass Bob Baffert for the all-time lead in victories in this race. Ben Curtis, his pilot in the 43-1 Risen Star smoke show by nearly 10 lengths, gets the return call.#5-MICKSWAGGER: Tops the locals after winning the Prairie Mile on June 7 as the Iowa Derby’s chief prep. New Mexico-based trainer Bart Hone has had a remarkable Prairie Meadows season, winning 8 of 15, including 2-for-2 from this colt by Volatile. Jockey Elvin Gonzalez is second in the meet standings coming into the weekend and winning at a sharp 24% rate. Gonzalez piloted Ain’t Life Grand to the 2022 Iowa Derby crown, the last locally based runner to do so.#6-MAVERAMA: Longshot runner-up in the Prairie Mile must make up 3 lengths on Mickswagger in their Iowa Derby rematch while also taking on the shippers. Maiden claiming graduate is 2-for-10 for Todd Jordan, winning his Prairie Mile allowance prep over this track in mid-May. Second on this card a year ago when a distant runner-up in the Prairie Gold Juvenile.#7-MISTER OMAHA: Oklahoma-based colt for Joe Offolter is a 4-time stakes winner vs. state-breds at Remington Park and Will Rogers Downs. Respectable, but unthreatening fourth in the Texas Derby at Lone Star against open company, 4 lengths behind Iowa Derby rival Itsmybirthday at the wire Omaha Beach colt has won 5 of 8 for owner-breeder Bryan Hawk and veteran jockey Luis Quinonez has been aboard in every start.

EXTRA INCENTIVES20% Exacta Payoff Boost (up to $20) | Assiniboia Downs | all races todayGold Cup & Saucer VIP Trip Sweepstakes | Red Shores-SummersideNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $220,107 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | $99,975 | Hastings | begins Race 2 | 6:00 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | $237,896 | Assiniboia Downs | begins Race 3 | 9:25 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY PARX WINNERParx | Race 10 | 4:47 pm ET | #9 Okie Den Den (30%)KEY RACESHastings | Race 4 | 7:00 pm ET | Monashee StakesHastings | Race 5 | 7:30 pm ET | Lieutenant Governors’ StakesAssiniboia Downs | Race 3 | 9:00 pm ET | Hazel Wright Sire StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXParx | Race 6 | 2:59 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETMountaineer | Race 4 | 8:15 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJonathan Wong | Louisiana Downs | 4 of 5 entrants 3-1 or less morning line oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Louisiana Downs | Race 7 | nation’s highest-paying winner ($137), exacta ($331) and trifecta ($1570)PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Tuesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section