XB Blog

9.30.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Belmont Thursday Stakes Spot Plays

By Scott Shapiro

Mother nature decided to force the New York Racing Association to cancel their Saturday and Sunday cards last week due to the Nor’easter in the area, but that means one of the best Thursday cards this century is on tap to kick off the month of October. That’s right, six graded stakes make up the Pick 6 sequence for the afternoon with the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1) being the headliner.Speaking of the start of the month, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet have a new promotion for October we are running back from last year. “Bonus Boonanza” rewards horseplayers for wagering $100 at a different track throughout the month with a bonus of $10. It begins on Thursday and you guessed it Belmont is the select track. Here are a few horses I like in the stakes and will wager on in order to earn my free 10% back.Race 4: Winter Memories (G3)This one-mile event over the grass for 3YO fillies is one of the more competitive races on the agenda. #8 Sister Troienne brings the strongest resume into the event for trainer Brian Lynch, but has not competed since early April at Keeneland. She is as capable as anyone probably, but may have peaked as a juvenile and early 3YO. I will try to beat her with #6 Lovely Grey. The Kelsey Danner trainee has been given three months to regroup after being involved in a spill in a restricted stake at Saratoga on July 3. Prior to that the Go Go Greys Stable filly was outrun taking an understandable shot on the dirt in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). Her recent two starts have dirtied up her form, which hopefully helps counter the expected money from Dave Portnoy and his Barstool crew. Lovely Grey proved she can finish with energy and should appreciate getting back to the grass.Play: #6 Lovely Grey (8-1 ML)Picks: 6-7-3Race 6: Vosburgh (G3)My next play comes in this seven-furlong event for 3YOs+ over the main track where I expect #1 T Kraft to run a big race in his first start over the Belmont Park dirt. The son of Connect returns to the races after finishing in a dead heat with Senior Officer in the Forego (G1) at the Spa in late August. The 4YO colt draws the rail, which will be an issue if he breaks poorly, but also could lead to a perfect ground saving mid-pack trip under jockey Junior Alvarado. The Bill Mott trainee enters this year’s Vosburgh in the best form of his career and may prove to be at his best at seven-eighths of a mile.Play: #1 T Kraft (6-1 ML)Picks: 1-8-5Race 7: Joe Hirsch Turf Classic (G1)The lone Grade 1 on the stakes-laden Thursday slate is this 1 1/2-mile excursion over the Belmont grass where I could not get past 2-1-ML favorite #1 El Cordobes. The son of Frankel makes his first start since a trip to Qatar that led to a fifth-place finish for trainer Charles Appleby. Appleby has not won races in North America in bunches at all like he has in past years, but does come in off of two big wins at Woodbine with horses expected to finish first in the Summer (G1) and Woodbine Mile (G1). El Cordobes likely was given the spring and summer off to prepare for another shot in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1) after running third to Rebel’s Romance at Del Mar a year ago. Flavien Prat will be aboard the 5YO gelding who draws favorably along the inside in his first start over the new turf course in Long Island. He likely needs a good showing to get another chance to run in the World Championships. I expect him to get just that.Play: #1 El Cordobes (2-1 ML)Picks: 1-7-4

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9.30.2026:

Race of the Week: Santa Anita's Rodeo Drive | Saturday, October 3, 2026

By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:A second straight weekend of important Breeders' Cup trail stakes will be featured at Santa Anita. We'll focus here on the Filly & Mare Turf division's Grade 2 Rodeo Drive Stakes in Race 10 with a deep field of 11. The undercard boasts top sprint fillies and mares in the Grade 3 Chillingworth along with juvenile stakes in the listed Speakeasy, the G2 Oak Leaf and G1 American Pharoah.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of 10X 1/ST Rewards Points on the Sunset 6 wager between Santa Anita and Gulfstream (final 3 races on each card), which includes the Rodeo Drive. Also note the Breeders' Cup Bankroll Builder promotion that features Saturday's American Pharoah Stakes on the same Santa Anita card.Field Depth:Grade 1 winner THOUGHT PROCESS tops the marquee. She's joined by multiple G2 winner MAY DAY READY as well as G3 winners DONA CLOTA and PUBLIC ASSEMBLY. That quartet, along with HEY JESSIE, have kept the strongest company lines.Pace:There's not much tempo here, so while THOUGHT PROCESS neary always sits second in her races, she may default to the front if THE MIZEN QUEEN, TOTALLY JUSTIFIED or MAY DAY READY aren't intent on the lead. A deep closer would appear compromised by this modest pace set-up.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-THOUGHT PROCESS: Graded stakes winner at ages 2,3 and 4, she’s the undisputed leader in the California filly and mare turf division. But she’s shown a tad bit vulnerable at 1-1/8 miles twice now and the additional furlong asked of her Saturday is uncharted territory (while carrying a career-high 126 pounds). The downhill start to 10F at Santa Anita long has been a boost to those types who were in question at getting the traditional trip. She’ll get her typical, first over trip and be the one to beat at 4-for-4 over the course.2-RESOLVE: Late runner missed by a nose in the similar Santa Ana Stakes during the spring here but has just 2 wins in 22 starts and 1 win in 13 trips on the local lawn. Form seems to be stuck in place and not advancing and trainer Leonard Powel has been in a protracted slump.3-DONA CLOTA: Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. is 9: 3-2-0 with his California ventures in 2026 from his Florida homebase, including 3 graded stakes wins and a pair of stakes seconds last week at Santa Anita. He’s bringing horses that fit and this Delaware stakes winner is a pure distance mare. Chilean export would be a bit of a surprise to win against these, but note this barn’s 3 SoCal stakes wins this year include a pair of 12-1 shots. Can’t dismiss.4-TOTALLY JUSTIFIED: Kentucky-based Anna Meah brings the Ellis Park Turf winner west for the second time, looking to improve on a midflight finish in the Grade 1 American Oaks at Santa Anita to close 2025. Current form is promising and should like the hard-packed turf course expected with soaring temps in Arcadia this week.5-PUBLIC ASSEMBLY: The 2025 Royal Heroine winner hasn’t been back for a picture in her last 11 starts and only has 3 placings during that run to show for it. No match for her Phil D’Amato barnmate Thought Process in the Gamely in May and appears to be a better finisher with a sharp miler’s pace than these elongated routes.6-KENTUCKY GAL: Won June’s Possibly Perfect over this course and distance and held that form with a late-running third at Del Mar in August. Another of the Phil D’Amato charges here and the one with the perhaps most versatile running style. Fits well enough on form, distance and coursework and should offer reasonable value.7-HEY JESSIE: Notched the 12-furlong Santa Barbara over this course in May but has been generally overmatched when stepping up into graded-stakes classes. Could make argument she’s faced tougher in her last 2 than most of these, so this race hits somewhere between on her resume. Deep closer is devoid of early foot, but reunites with her winning pilot Emisael Jaramillo on Saturday. Mixed vibes.8-VICTORIOUS DREAM: 3-year-old filly takes on elder stakes runners for the first time. Generally consistent until her Del Mar Oaks bid when she was her own worst enemy mentally. Rider change from Juan Hernandez to Ricardo Gonzalez as the former jumps seats to Vronti on Saturday. I’ll make her beat me against open elders like this, but 118-pound assignment gives her 6-pound break from the favorite and that doesn’t hurt over 10 furlongs.9-MAY DAY READY: Exits match race win at Kentucky Downs in the One Dreamer for Richard Mandella, but there’s concern about the additional distance for a filly who’s been best around a mile. Continues to work sharply as is her norm after the road trip to Kentucky and bounced out of that race well. No match for Thought Process in the Gamely, however, and must find more than 7 lengths to turn the tables. Inconsistency makes you demand a price if interested.10-THE MIZEN QUEEN: Irish export has found the winner’s circle just once in 9 domestic starts since joining Dan Blacker’s stable. But she’s hit the superfecta 8 times during that span, including back-to-back listed stakes placings. This is a step up in class on paper but she’s been right there with race rivals Vronti, Kentucky Gal and Resolve in multiple bids, so she fits well enough in her first graded-stakes attempt. Kyle Frey picks up the mount as she loses recent pilots to some of the favorites entered.11-VRONTI: Second cross-country trip about 6 weeks (and third this year) for this Maryland-based filly. Graham Motion netted a victory in listed stakes company at Del Mar last out and a fifth-place try behind Thought Process in May’s Grade 1 Gamely at Santa Anita. All-day pedigree and running style should fare well over the distance and notably lands top jockey Juan Hernandez away from a few of the other contenders. With 3 wins and a second among her last 5 starts, she should be right there if the travel doesn’t take a toll at some point before the wire.Most Likely Exotics Contender:THOUGHT PROCESS is unbeaten over the course and proven class. The distance could be the obstacle, but shouldn't prevent her from landing on the ticket somewhere, if not on top.Best Longshot Contender:THE MIZEN QUEEN never misfires on firm ground and has some ability to be in mix early in a race without much pace.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$5 trifecta part-wheel THOUGHT PROCESS with THE MIZEN QUEEN, DONA CLOTA with ALL ($90). $5 exacta part-wheel THE MIZEN QUEEN, DONA CLOTA over THOUGHT PROCESS ($10).

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9.30.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Wednesday, September 30, 2026

By Xpressbet

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9.29.2026:

Bernier's Best: Breeders' Cup Divisional Rankings for September 29, 2026

By Matt Bernier

Breeders’ Cup prep season is in full effect, with many horses either having made or about to make their final starts before the World Championships are held at Keeneland in October. Each week, I’ll adjust my personal rankings accordingly based on races and news from the weekend prior. The juvenile divisions will enter the equation once the marquee summer meetings have concluded.Below you’ll find my rankings for nine of the Breeders Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order. Any changes made, whether they be additions / subtractions or new comments, are italicized.(NOTE: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint will be omitted from the rankings. The division is constantly in flux and there are too many who will be cross-entered to make that list worthwhile.)CLASSIC1 - Forever Young (last week: 1)• Some may have been underwhelmed by his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup…but what else did you want from him? A 105 Beyer going 10F off a six-month layoff would seem to be a great jumping off point for a Classic defense.2 - Magnitude (last week: 2)• If you forgive his Saratoga form he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney3 - Sovereignty (last week: 3)• Maybe foolish to move him down a peg, but his unknown status due to the foot abscess has to be a concern; not sure he can afford any sort of hiccups if he’s to make the Breeders’ Cup4 - Knightsbridge (last week: 4)• Devastated the G1 Pacific Classic, a field that was a G1 in name only; hard to find anyone to dispute his brilliance, but the question remains - can he reproduce that brilliance against the cream of the crop?DISTAFF1 - Nitrogen (last week: 1)• May not have been visually exceptional but plenty fast enough winning the Beldame; strictly the horse to beat in the Distaff2 - Counting Stars (last week: 2)• Defeated as the heavy chalk in the G1 Alabama; clearly not her best but not going to be overly reactionary…she’s still one of the favorites in this division when firing on all cylinders3 - Fully Subscribed (last week: 3)• Secured her first career G1 in the Personal Ensign, earning a 106 Beyer in the process; she’s failed before when tested against the best but has never regressed at any point in her career on the Beyer scale…may be peaking at the right time4 - Splendora (last week: 4)• The wide margins of victory around two turns would lead you to believe she may well fit the Distaff configuration; have always wondered if she’s better around one turn, though, so maybe a defense of the FM Sprint is the better path? To be determined…SPRINT1 - Englishman (last week: 1)• The clear leader of the division after another devastating performance at Saratoga in the Allen Jerkens on Travers Day; Beyers of 115 and 117 as a 3YO entering the BC put him in rarified air for Cherie DeVaux2 - T O Elvis (last week: 2)• Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form - but may not need to find much3 - Built (last week: 3)• Always seemed like a one turn horse and has shown that to be the case in 2026; not much to knock about him given his recent form other than the obvious - his figs are miles behind those of Englishman4 - Liam Smith (last week: unranked)• Not often does a $50k claimer immediately become a Breeders’ Cup contender, but here we are…back-to-back 107 Beyers make him too fast to ignore - especially given his early pace; seems unlikely he can run with Englishman, but could be worst case scenario for the heavy chalk in terms of race shapeFM SPRINT1 - Kilwin (last week: 1)• Perhaps being a bit stubborn keeping her #1…didn’t think her second in the Ballerina was a bad effort, just ran into a horse for course and found herself way too far back early despite the hot pace; absolutely needs a step forward but hopefully that is still to come at Keeneland2 - Ways and Means (last week: 2)• Disrespectful to have her this far down after a blowout win in a G1 at Saratoga? Maybe…still think she’s a different animal at the Spa v. Other venues; likely goes as the favorite for the FM Sprint in October off the 104 Beyer in the Ballerina3 - Mashallah (last week: 3)• Another blowout victory, this time in the G3 Prioress; figs aren’t exactly improving but hard to argue with what she’s done when you watch her races…may end up being the “now” horse4 - Explora (last week: 4)• Came up just short as part of a three-horse photo in the Dogwood at CD; the figs aren’t quite there for her to be considered a top contender - but that can be said for most in this division aside from Ways and MeansTURF1 - Tiffany (last week: 1)• Devastating victory in the KYD Turf Cup in her U.S. debut; 107 Beyer earned in that race has been the benchmark for BC Turf success over the past decade - a likely win candidate at Keeneland2 - Ombudsman (last week: 2)• Serious horse and a real possibility to run here if the weather goes sideways for Champions Day at Ascot according to John Gosden via Nick Luck Daily…Gosden has kept him at 10F for majority of career in Europe but the 12F in the United States should be well within his scope; the likely favorite for the Turf assuming he comes for the party3 - Ethical Diamond (last week: 3)• Credible second behind the filly on top in the KYD Turf Cup; connections seem very pleased with the run as a means to an end heading to Keeneland - a legit threat to repeat in the BC Turf4 - Burnham Square (last week: 4)• Can’t rate him any higher after the disaster at KYD, but the intense heat that day may have been the excuse; if you still believe in him, you’ll wind up with a better price come BC SaturdayMILE1 - Blue Bolt (last week: 1)• Never a loser while taking another G1 in the Matron at Leopardstown, which was a WAYI for the BC FM Turf; not sure why you’d consider stretching her with as good as she’s been at the mile distance…would be a handful if Andrew Balding decided to ship her here2 - Erdenali (last week: 2)• Set a Longchamp course record winning the G1 Prix du Moulin, humbling previous #1 rated Gstaad in the process; connections have stated the G1 Coolmore Mile at KEE would be next en route to the BC Mile3 - Notable Speech (last week: 3)• Another G1 victory to his resume in the Woodbine Mile, running down Deterministic - who had everything his way; a major threat to repeat in the BC Mile, even if his WO Mile “only” earned a 101 Beyer4 - Deterministic (last week: 4)• Although no excuse when finishing second behind Notable Speech, don’t really feel as though he loses anything in defeat; still an underneath candidate for BC Mile…although do wonder if the connections explore the idea of trying to stretch and wire a field in the BC Turf?FM TURF | VIDEO PREVIEW1 - Thundering On (last week: 1)• Back to her best winning the G3 Blandford at The Curragh; claim to fame prior was monster win in The Oaks, although form of that race has been spotty…Joseph O’Brien mentioned The Arc as a target, although this filly at 9.5F at Keeneland would be a monster2 - Kentucky Belle (last week: 2)• The immediate target for the connections is the QEII at Keeneland; if she runs as well there as she did at Kentucky Downs on closing day it would be very difficult not to consider the BC FM Turf, even on a relatively quick turnaround3 - Diamond Necklace (last week: 3)• Defeated for the first time in her career, finishing behind Aventure in a G1 at Deauville; soft ground may not have been to her liking - willing to give a mulligan4 - Stellify (last week: 4)• An all or nothing type at this point in her career…when she’s part of the early running, she’s very good; decimated a field in the Ladies Marathon at KYD, a course which she’s 3-for-3 overTURF SPRINT1 - Cy Fair (last week: 1)• Nothing to be gleaned from her off the board effort at KYD; buried on the rail for duration of the run…draw a line through the race - her best is still elite2 - Bacio (last week: 2)• Devastating winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York for Wesley Ward over a highly-accomplished group; no fault with anyone saying he’s clearly tops, just still believe in the filly at #1’s ability3 - Shisospicy (last week: 3)• Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’s4 - Possiblemente (last week: 4)• Put himself squarely in the mix with a strong victory in KYD Turf Sprint; versatile type in raging form for Joe SharpDIRT MILE1 - Knightsbridge (last week: 1)• Hard to imagine the connections not heading to the Classic despite having both he and Sovereignty but will remain a part of this group for the time being2 - Napoleon Solo (last week: 2)• Loses nothing in defeat finishing a gallant second in the Travers; coming up short in each of the past two would lead me to point to the Dirt Mile, but Classic remains an option for the connections3 - The Puma (last week: 3)• Connections probably wanting to give the Classic a go but not sure his best is good enough to run with the big boys just yet; blinkers certainly did the trick and the middle move he unleashed would play wonderfully in a truly run mile at Keeneland4 - Further Ado (last week: 4)• Kicked on well at the end of the PA Derby but couldn’t run down The Puma; the record at Keeneland sticks out like a sore thumb - in a good way; can’t imagine the connections are in a rush to try the Classic with him but another who would fit wonderfully in the Dirt MileJUVENILE1 - Coach Pope (last week: 1)• One of three to exit the “key” 2YO race of the summer at Saratoga on August 8; never out of first gear when breaking maiden at CD by more than 12L for McPeek…always take note of horses who do things their connections don’t necessarily prioritize - in this case, McPeek runners usually improve with experience2 - U.S.S Valor (last week: 2)• Could copy / paste the notes for Pope here for Valor being trained by Shug McGaughey; 105 Beyer earned in maiden win at Saratoga towers over the competition…horse should improve with added ground, too3 - Gaudreau (last week: 3)• The winner of the key race from Saratoga on August 8 defeating the top two; big acts to follow given what the other two have done recently but the Louisiana-bred deserves to be part of this triumvirate4 - Salahudin (last week: 4)• Could have been any one of four or five to fill this fourth slot; almost the antithesis of a typical Baffert 2YO - sluggish out of the gate, settles before finding stride and finishing while still showing greenness; may be more of a 3YO prospect but continues to improve…as good a 2YO male crop as we’ve seen in a whileJUVENILE FILLIES1 - Miss Monica (last week: 1)• Paired up 87 Beyers winning G1 DMR Debutante for Baffert; geared down for final 100 yards and still galloped out with interest…think she’ll improve around two-turns, too2 - Summer Starlet (last week: 2)• Done nothing wrong in two starts, including an open-length score in the G1 Spinaway that earned a 97 Beyer; wasn’t crazy about the gallop out and there’s a fair bit of speed / sprint on the bottom of her pedigree, but in the right hands with Asmussen and figures to continue to improve with age3 - Libby Lloyd (last week: 3)• Only a maiden victory on debut to her name so far but Chad Brown has spoken very highly of her; crushed a modest field by 10 at Saratoga in mid-August…will get a better sense of where she stacks up in next start4 - Manuka Honey (last week: 4)• Unbeaten in three starts including the Pocahontas at CD; far from the most visually appealing finish, getting final 1/4 in :26…but this is a very thin group of filliesJUVENILE TURF1 - How’s Al Today (last week: 1)• Ran twice at the Kentucky Downs meeting, including a stakes score which resulted in a 94 Beyer Speed Figure; division historically dominated by Euros but this one looks like he may be the goods2 - Folsom Blues (last week: 2)• Wicked kick over the final furlong winning the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at The Curragh; Joseph O’Brien indicated the Dewhurst may be next but didn’t rule out the possibility of sending the colt to the United States3 - Darkness Falls (last week: 3)• No surprise to see him shorten in the market to one of the favorites for next year’s Derby after authoritative victory in the Golden Fleece; Aidan O’Brien suggested a run in America wouldn’t be out of the question4 - Al Hudaiba (last week: 4)• Better than the final margin in the G1 Summer would suggest given he took a right-hand turn down the stretch; Charlie Appleby / Godolphin have played this tune successfully in the past, would be no surprise to see them do it againJUVENILE FILLIES TURF1 - Sun Goddess (last week: 1)• Must be special if Aidan O’Brien is referring to her as a “freak”; smashed in the Moyglare, and post race comments would suggest a run in the Cheveley Park followed by a try in the Breeders’ Cup could be on offer…also worth noting she thumped Folsom Blues at The Curragh in August2 - Senorita Bonita (last week: 2)• Crushed G1 company in the Prix Morny in August; pedigree on top suggests sprint but damsire is a real stamina influence…would think a mile should be within her scope3 - Vanta (last week: 3)• Plenty to like on tape watching her two wins to date, but stating the obvious - she’s jumping into the deep end of the pool going from the Del Mar 2YO turf fillies to international stars4 - Quibbler (last week: 4)• Only a maiden victory to her name so far, but visually ticked many boxes winning on debut at Kentucky Down for Riley Mott; blew doors off a field despite looking as though she had plenty of fitness still to gain, which will come with additional experience

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9.29.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Tuesday, September 29, 2026

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9.28.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Monday, September 28, 2026

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9.28.2026:

Al Cimaglia: Yonkers Raceway Spot Plays | Monday, September 28, 2026

By Al CImaglia

Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card and the $1.00 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool goes in Race 5. The Spot Plays are in Race 1, Race 3, and Race 8. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 1 (6:45 PM EDT)4-Zebs Krafty (6-1)-Came off the bench and raced against this kind after being off a month. Wasn't handeled aggressively, rallied to finish 2nd and will look for better here. Draws a choice post and does good work at Yonkers (12-3-3-2). When Jordan Stratton steers for the Jared Bako barn he posts 21% winners. Could be sitting on a big try and at 6-1 is well worth a swing.4-7-1Race 3 (7:25 PM EDT)6-Coalford Topguy GB (10-1)-Joe B takes the lines and should be a juicy price facing straight $40k claimers. This is the 1st start off a claim, and this outfit posts 18% winners in that spot. This will be a challenge but did wire the $30k claimers on 8-27 and drew off by >3 lengths. Has the gate speed to get the top and this pilot knows how to make them go and last until the wire.6-1-3Race 84-Railroad Station (9/2)The recent winner at this level comes off 2 dull tries. Beat this kind 3 back from post 4 with Tyler Buter between the pipes. Took command off the gate, that same plan may work again and will be a better price than 4/5. Also, pace compromised in last and did go the back half in 55.1 with a 26.3 last panel. Tonight, the fractions should be honest, and a 57.1 opening half shouldn't happen.4-3-1Check me out on X!

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9.27.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Sunday, September 27, 2026

By Xpressbet

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