Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.Hope you caught Friday’s Race 7 when our pair of longshot plays ran 1-2 with Cavali and Ferrous for an 80-1 exacta return.Race 4:#3 Dai Vernon (10-1 ML) – Finisher gets an excellent pace set-up to make a late move and bred to love the Kee dirt in his first local appearance by Good Magic. Should pair well with finishing rider Joel Rosario. Will be using with top pick Money Supply.Race 9:#5 Turner’s Charm (20-1 ML) – Trainer Brendan Walsh won last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup with Lush Lips and brings this Fall 2025 local course winner back to the scene. She got a 102 BRIS late pace figure in the Dueling Grounds Oaks in a better-than-looks third behind a slow pace.Race 10:#5 Ghost Scene (12-1 ML) – Top pick and a key for me on the card debuted a solid fifth with surprising speed at Churchill for an Ian Wilkes barn that’s rarely that sharp first out. Got back working 13 days later with a noticeable uptick in workout time and appears to have bounced out of the debut great. Sire Street Sense continues to produce strong numbers with his Kee dirt performers.

This race is unlikely to have any Breeders’ Cup implications in a few weeks' time, but it doesn’t make Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup Challenge at Keeneland any less appealing – particularly from a gambling standpoint. Eleven three-year-old fillies plan to line up and battle over nine furlongs, with the morning line favorite being this year’s King’s Plate winner, Luster.There’s plenty to sink your teeth into in this year’s QEII Cup Challenge. Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the runners scheduled to compete as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.1 – Haute Diva 2% / 49-12 – Luster 14% / 6-13 – Tam Tam 18% / 9-24 – Faithful Departed 20% / 4-15 – Turner’s Charm 2% / 49-16 – Braida 7% / 13-17 – Storm’s Wake 9% / 10-18 – Lookin At Diamond 11% / 8-19 – Kensington Lane 7% / 13-110 – Deep Learning 7% / 13-111 – Soloist 3% / 32-1This race became far more interesting from a betting perspective when it was announced that Kentucky Belle, who would have been a heavy favorite, was being freshened for a four-year-old campaign. Her defection leaves favoritism up for interpretation, but my inclination is that FAITHFUL DEPARTED (4) will be the post time favorite when all is said and done. A three-year-old daughter by Yoshida, Faithful Departed has been slightly unlucky in her last two starts, each of which resulted in runner-up efforts. In the Belmont Oaks, the Grant Forster trainee was compromised by a dawdling pace, finishing nearly two-lengths behind the loose pacesetter, Kensington Lane (who also runs here on Saturday). Then, in the Saratoga Oaks, Faithful Departed made the first move from the back of the pack, blitzing to the front – only to be chased and grounded down by the aforementioned Kentucky Belle. Faithful Departed hasn’t run since August, but there’s no reason to think she won’t fire a big shot on Saturday.TAM TAM (3) is already a grade one winner, taking the Del Mar Oaks over this distance in Southern California. The Phil Bauer trainee had a dream trip on August 22, sitting just off Kensington Lane before tipping out and finishing strongly down the lane. Another lovely trip figures to come her way in the QEII, but there’s no denying the water gets considerably deeper against this bunch. She may well end up vying for favoritism on Saturday on the heels of the G1 victory. If there was one concern for the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, it would be that she’s already been defeated on the square by both Faithful Departed and Storm Wake, the latter of which has already won over the Keeneland turf and figures to be a much better price.As for LUSTER (2) - there's really nothing to knock about her form. Trained by Josie Carroll, the three-year-old filly took Canada’s Kentucky Derby over the summer at Woodbine in authoritative fashion. Sent off as the .25-to-1 favorite, the daughter of Knicks Go dominated, prevailing by more than seven lengths in the end. She's displayed wonderful versatility throughout her career and, perhaps mostintriguing of all, she’s already shown that the Keeneland turf is to her liking. The five-length victory in her three-year-old debut should allay any fears that she’s simply a synthetic specialist. It’s hard to fully project how she’ll be played at the windows, as she’s been the betting favorite in each of her last four starts. Against this caliber of competition, however, I wonder if she floats up some from the 5-2 morning line she’s been assigned.I believe these three fillies are the likeliest winners of Saturday’s QEII, but I’m going to go in a different direction at a much more appealing price. LOOKIN AT DIAMOND (8) ships in from Kentucky for trainer Leo Powell and, although the California shippers rarely have success on turf in Kentucky, this filly appears to be set to fire a career top in this spot. A daughter of Lookin At Lucky, Lookin AtDiamond saved every inch of ground throughout the majority of the Del Mar Oaks on August 22 before firing home in a big way. Beneath Julien Leparoux, Lookin At Diamond logged her final 3/8ths in 34 and 3/5ths seconds - a time that was 2/5ths of a second faster than the final 38ths of winner Tam Tam. Considering this was her first run since June, I'd like to think she’s going to take a step forward in her second start of the form cycle. If you needed another positive for this filly, look no further than her female family; her older sister, Diamond Wow, was a winner over the Keeneland turf during her racing career. She’ll need a bit of pace to run at (which I believe she’ll get), but if she does, Lookin At Diamond is worth a look at a price in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.THE PICKS: 8-4-3-2THE PLAY:8-LOOKIN AT DIAMOND TO WIN AT ODDS OF 8-1 OR GREATEREXACTAS: 3,4 / 8

EXTRA INCENTIVESBreeders’ Cup Bankroll | Bet $25, Get $5 | Sycamore Stakes (Race 9 Keeneland)SCHEDULE NOTEDelta Downs | opening day | first post 5:40 pm ETSPECIAL WAGERSCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 8-9, Santa Anita Races 2-3-4Sunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 7-8-9, Santa Anita Races 7-8-9TOURNAMENT TIME$500 Keeneland Last Chance BCBC-NHC Qualifier | details$100 Santa Anita Feeder | details$40 Charles Town Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $50,447 (CAN) | Woodbine | begins Race 3 | 2:11 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $78,319 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 8 | 4:53 pm ETKEY RACESKeeneland | Race 9 | 5:16 pm ET | Sycamore StakesDelta Downs | Race 9 | 7:56 pm ET | Magnolia StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 2 | 1:32 pm ETWoodbine | Race 6 | 3:49 pm ETBelmont Park | Race 9 | 5:38 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHLinda Rice | Belmont Park | 6 of 7 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Last 2 Days | Belmont Park | trainer Chad Brown | won 3 races back-to-back daysPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder Bets for Friday, Saturday, SundayJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Longshot Plays for FridayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section

Some great October promotions have been a theme for my writing the last few days and that continues today when the second week of our Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder commences later this afternoon. The promo allows 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers to earn a $5 bonus for betting $25+ on select races leading up to the World Championships at the end of the month. Head to the promotional landing page to register if you have yet to do so and for more details. Here are my thoughts on each of the three stakes events included in the Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder over the next few days.Friday: Sycamore (G2), Keeneland Race 9:The feature later this afternoon in Kentucky is this $400k 12-furlong affair over the Keeneland grass where #2 Just a Touch was made the 5-2-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The son of Justify has won 3 of 4 since trainer Brad Cox moved him to the grass earlier this year, but the lone defeat came when facing Grade 2 foes like he does at 5:16 PM eastern. The fact he won his only start over this course in April, draws favorably along the inside, and lures Irad Ortiz Jr. are all positives, but he is likely to at least be somewhat involved in what should be a contentious early pace.I respect the favorite, but cannot back at him at his likely price, so I will try to beat him with #8 Tiz Dashing. The son of Tiz the Law is one of just a handful in this field that does no exit an arduous race for a huge purse at Kentucky Downs, which has always seemed to be an overall positive at the Keeneland Fall Meeting. The Barclay Tagg trainee got a confidence boosting win against allowance foes last out after a mid-pack finish when against the flow in the Kelso (G3) in early July. Javier Castellano returns to ride the 4YO colt.Play: #8 Tiz Dashing (9-2 ML)Picks: 8-2-7Saturday, California Flag, Santa Anita Race 9Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder race is this $100k event for Cal-breds down the Hillside Turf Course named for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner goes through 6-5-favorite #1 Lonesome Slew. The son of Grazen has proven form over this course for Mark Glatt and meets a somewhat suspect field of fellow state-breds. It would be difficult to bet against the chalk in this spot if the race appeared to have more speed signed on and he did not draw the rail. However, both of those things make it difficult to get excited about betting on Lonesome Slew despite being the likeliest winner.#6 Big City Lights has been a dirt horse throughout his career and a solid one at that for Hall of Famer Richard Mandella. I rarely like to bet dirt horses trying the turf later in the career with the expectation that they will be as fast or faster on the green, but in this case the price should be right to gamble on this son of Mr. Big that ran better than looks in his lone turf start last year at Del Mar in the Stormy Liberal. The slow start from the rail and wide move did he him no favors, but at his ML offering I am willing to give him another shot, especially with the move to an outside post down the hill.Play: #6 Big City Lights (9-2 ML)Picks: 6-1-7Sunday, California Distaff, Santa Anita Race 9The final crack this week at the BC Bankroll Builder is in yet another race for Cal-breds down the beautiful Hillside Turf Course. This time it is for the ladies where I will try #10 Liberation. The 3YO takes on older runners for the first time, which is always a big challenge, but trainer John Sadler is having a strong meet and this gal should sit a stress-free trip in the clear a few lengths off an honest early pace. Her lone turf effort came in late August when she went two turns at Del Mar against open company foes and went far too fast early from her inside draw. Hopefully, she is able to relax on the cutback in distance and move to an outside draw.Play: #10 LiberationPicks: 10-4-7

Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.Race 2:#11 Harborcoat (12-1 ML) – In a race with very little positive form to evaluate, newly gelded second-timer was a decent-enough fourth of 10 vs. similar at Churchill in his debut while showing early interest.Race 5:#12 Aopotheon (15-1 ML) – Bill Mott trainee gets to stretch is legs for the first time with a pedigree to do so if he handles the turf. Employs the classic Jeff Siegel “two sprints to a route” form cycle that’s had much success over the years as a handicapping angle.Race 7:#4 Cavalli (10-1 ML) – Flightline first-timer cost $625K and has had a long, consistent workout pattern on the Tapeta at Turfway for the debut. Walsh-Gaffalione one of Keeneland’s most potent pairings.#6 Ferrous (12-1 ML) – One of my key bets on the card has shown surface versatility through 3 starts and could be ready deliver for Rodolphe Brisset, who popped a winner here Thursday and 2 seasons ago dominated Week 2 for the Fall Meet with 4 winners, aiming for these spots in the condition book that are slightly easier than opening week.Race 10:#9 Big Luz (20-1) – first-time starter for a Kenny McPeek barn that had big success during Week 2 of last year’s Fall Meet with 4 winners, and posted a Week 2 winner here yesterday.

Hoosier Park has over $2.4 million in purses on the line with Indiana Sire Stakes Super Finals as the headliners. The Spot Plays are in Race 2, Race 4, and Race 9. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 2 (5:53 PM EDT)4-Tell's In The Game (9/2)-Finished 3rd at 30-1 in last and won't be those odds but should offer a square price. The last 2 races have been good and the Erv Miller pupil hit the board in 7 of 11 with 2 pictures. My take is the fractions could be lively. If so that helps and Atlee Bender could finish best of all.4-6-5Race 4 (6:39 PM EDT)3-Brooklets Rockette (7-1)-The Robert Taylor price shot has been consistently in the mix and until last week didn't get much help with post draws. Drew the pegs in last and lost by a nose at 11-1. Can offer a better price than the morning line this time and is versatile. Should get a cozy trip, will look for a big try once again, and could take its 8th picture in 14 starts.3-4-7Race 9 (8:34 PM EDT)2-For Dayze (3-1)-The morning line chalk is #5 Fresh Face Yankee and it deserves top billing with a (9-8-1-0) record this year and has 11 pictures in 13 starts. It won its last going gate to wire, winning handily versus my top choice who finished 2nd. Tonight, will be 2nd time on Lasix for the Roger Welch trainee (2) and will look for a bit more in the tank down the lane. Offers more value, and getting a similar 2-hole trip can happen again. Will look for John De Long to have in play at the top of the lane and the morning line choice to not be able to steal a quarter with a larger purse on the line.2-5-4Check me out on X!

It’s a Pick 5 with full fields on paper, but short-priced favorites abound in races 6 through 10 this Saturday, Oct. 10, at Charles Town for the 40th running of the West Virginia Breeders Classics. All five favorites are 9-to-5 or less on the morning line, shaping the potential payout dramatically for the 50-cent wager. Players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet benefit greatly in payouts with $2,500 Hit & Split promotions on the late pick 5 and late pick 4 -- both sequences including the Race 7 1/ST BET West Virginia Breeders Classic race.Here’s a closer look:Charles Town, Race 6 (9:32 p.m. EST) RYAN’S RUN was on a perfect four-race run by a combined 28 lengths until the streak ended in the $500,000 Robert Hilton Memorial last out. He dueled from the start until he gave way in the stretch of the two-turn sprint. He scratched from a Grade 2 stakes race at Parx to run in $75,000 Russell Road BC and remains the one to beat. Jeff Runco, the all-time leading trainer at Charles Town, also sends out a viable price option in PENGUIN’S PRIDE, who won three races by a combined 20-1/2 lengths but lost all chance with a ‘tangled start’ against RYAN’S RUN in the 7F Robert Leavitt Memorial on a muddy track.Charles Town, Race 7 (10:02 p.m. EST) THELASTSAY’S only loss in five starts since late April was at 7F against $500,000 earner OVERNIGHT POW WOW (see 8th race). She tracked a heated pace battle and surged 3-wide to prevail in the last jump for her first stakes victory last out. But MAGGIE’S GIRL was resilient, too, in the same $50,000 Autumn Stakes, dueling from the outset and missing by a neck in her first start off a 4-1/2-month layoff. The rematch should be a good one in the $75,000 1/ST BET Breeders Classic.Charles Town, Race 8 (10:32 p.m. EST) OVERNIGHT POW WOW just keeps winning … and winning … and winning. She has 12 wire-to-wire wins, all but one carrying 120 pounds or more, and seeks a re-run of her 2024 West Virginia Cavada BC victory. But PETTY PERFECT upset her in last year’s Cavada and arrives for her title defense in comparable form, with a projected ideal pace to rally into from the rail. She advanced inside on the second turn in an allowance race three weeks ago before OVERNIGHT POW WOW hit another gear in the stretch to prevail. LIL MISS HONKYTONK is a longshot to consider at 20-1 on the morning line in the $125,000 race for fillies and mares. She showed marked improvement since a $10,000 August claim, winning an allowance at 22-1 and returning on short rest to make a middle move to the lead and finish second on a ‘good’ track at tonight’s distance.Charles Town, Race 9 (11:02 p.m. EST) Defending Classic champ TEACHINTHERELEASE will go down as one of the best claims in Charles Town history. He is 11-for-15 with six stakes victories in seven starts (average 90 Beyer) since Robert Cole Jr. claimed him for $20,000 in June 2024. His main rival in 1-1/8-mile $300,000 Classic, JUBAWITHATWIST, starts from post 10 after he rallied to finish second in a pair of 7F matchups in August.Charles Town, Race 10 (11:32 p.m. EST) The most evenly-matched field in the Pick 5 sequence could be the finale. RAY OF SUNSHINE is a deserving favorite with a stakes victory and five consecutive 80-plus speed figures on a fast track, but he drew outside of post 5 only twice in the last year and got beat by 9 lengths both times. Hit the ‘ALL’ button in the race named after Onion Juice -- the first Breeders Classic champion in 1987 -- in hopes of a midnight celebration after the race.Suggested Pick 5CT 6th Race: 3, 9CT 7th race: 4, 8CT 8th Race: 1, 3, 4CT 9th Race: 4CT 10th Race: ALLCost for a 50-Cent Ticket: $60

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Thistledown | today’s racesSCHEDULE NOTESThistledown | closing day of meet ThursdayTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | details$40 Charles Town Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $4,424 | Thistledown | begins Race 6 | 2:00 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $72,025 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 7 | 6:26 pm ETKEY RACESThistledown | Race 5 | 1:30 pm ET | Emerald Necklace StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXDelaware Park | Race 7 | 3:58 pm ETWoodbine | Race 4 | 4:52 pm ETHorseshoe Indy | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHScooter Davis | Presque Isle | 4 of 5 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Belmont Park | trainer Chad Brown won with 3 of 4 startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Thistledown Promo Plays for ThursdayJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Longshot Plays for ThursdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section