By Jeremy Plonk
Santa Anita’s opening weekend of the autumn meet signals a significant round of Breeders’ Cup preps and the national schedule overflows with top-class races. What better time to hop aboard the stakes express? This Saturday’s whistle stops include the Great Race Place, the rebuilt Belmont Park, historic Churchill Downs. sunny Gulfstream and Mid-Atlantic neighbors Laurel and Delaware Park.Players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can benefit from a $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on Saturday for Santa Anita’s card.All aboard! (Listed in post time order)1:50 pm ET | Belmont | Race 4 | Gallant Bloom Stakes | Picks 6-2-5While favorite #5 R Disaster looks loose on the lead, she’s had just 1 race since spring and no works since a bad effort at the Spa, so I’ll try #6 Beauty Reigns, who has trained with intent since the Ballerina.2:23 pm ET | Laurel | Race 6 | All Along Stakes | Picks 8-5-1When the best horse on paper also gets the proper pace set-up, they rarely give back such an edge as classy #8 Grayosh should deliver for Chad Brown.3:22 pm ET | Laurel | Race 8 | Selima Stakes | Picks 5-4-9Rallying debut sprint winner #5 Maybe Gold got a solid 83 BRIS late pace figure for a fast dash that could translate well with her pedigree as she makes the 2-turn stretchout.3:26 pm ET | Delaware | Race 6 | Battery Park Stakes | Picks 4-5-2Defending champ #4 Cooke Creek is 3-for-3 in DelPark raids for a Mike Maker barn that reads the national stakes condition books with about as much success as anyone in picking spots that fit his horses.3:51 pm ET | Laurel | Race 9 | Laurel Futurity | Picks 5-2-6#5 Broadcast likely an underlay price by Miguel Clement’s regally bred son of Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account (who opened her career 2-for-2 at Laurel over this course) ran well enough in her debut with no pace help to like in this spot.4:02 pm ET | Delaware | Race 7 | Rocky Run Stakes | Picks 4-1-8Excited to see Further Ado’s half-brother by Justify – #4 Earth Song – an eye-popping Monmouth debut winner, stretch out here and just maybe become a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile sneaky play for Keeneland.4:17 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 8 | Hollywood Beach Stakes | Picks 5-7-6#5 Road to Midnight was superb in his only turf try and draw a line through his last on dirt when hooking a multiple stakes-winning freak named Sum of Success.4:26 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 8 | Bourbon Flight Stakes | Picks 6-1-5Stronger-than-expected 102 BRIS late pace figures in back-to-back sprints for #6 Local Knowledge make him interesting here on the stretch-out after facing a superstar at the Spa.4:34 pm ET | Delaware | Race 8 | White Clay Creek Stakes | Picks 1-3-9-4Late-running maiden #1 Spectacular Sam could benefit from both blinkers on and the rail draw/saving ground after being her own worst enemy through 3 starts as Spinaway class droppers likely take a good deal of the money.4:44 pm ET | Belmont | Race 9 | Vosburgh Stakes | Picks 8-3-7Big field of 10 and no standouts left in the elder Sprint division makes for a great betting race in which #8 Contrary Thinking is the ‘now’ horse with speed who has found a home since cutting back distance.4:58 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 9 | Ack Ack Stakes | Picks 2-3-8#2 Arrowthegreat – who gets a great pace set-up to punch late – beat an absolute, stakes-caliber field in allowance company at Del Mar last time so don’t see this as the rise in class it may look on paper.5:06 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 3 | City of Hope Mile | Picks 4-2-6#4 Detain was seriously hindered by a very slow second-quarter in the Del Mar Mile but still came with a heated run late and should blow by them Saturday with what looks to be more pace help.5:19 pm ET | Belmont | Race 10 | Jose Hirsch Turf Classic | Picks 3-4-2Love classy Euros picking up American-experienced jockeys (Flavien Prat rides here vs. 2 Chad Browns) and we saw #3 El Cordobes win domestically last summer in his ‘first off the plane’ effort.5:29 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 10 | Lukas Classic | Picks 4-3-7His record isn’t as strong at Churchill as other venues, but #4 Banishing opted here over the Jockey Club Gold Cup last week and his best is very, very good when he’s on and a few of these could struggle with the 9F trip.5:45 pm ET | Delaware Park | Race 10 | Delaware Handicap | Picks 6-5-4Dominant defending champ #4 Regaled isn’t forecasted to get her preferred wet track, opening the door for last year’s Delaware Oaks runner-up #6 Margie’s Intention to continue a strong history in this race for trainer Brad Cox.5:54 pm ET | Belmont | Race 11 | Flower Bowl Stakes | Picks 4-8-11With options shorter in distance upcoming at Keeneland, Chad Brown must love the 1-1/4 miles for #4 Kathynmarissa while she’s in career-best form and she faces a field where 9 of 11 exit defeats (several emphatically).6:10 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 5 | Eddie D Stakes | Picks 1-3-7Don’t let the 1-for-9 record at this turf trip fool you – #1 Sumter has run 4 dynamite races in a row on the downhill turf at Santa Anita and offers an inflated price after a dull Del Mar try.7:10 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 7 | John Henry Turf Championship | Picks 1-7-8#1 Mondego moved too soon in the Del Mar Handicap and gets a rider change while returning to the Santa Anita lawn where he won the Whittingham and San Marcos in his last 2 trips over this distance and course.7:40 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 8 | Goodwood Stakes | Picks 4-8-9Defending champ #9 Nevada Beach comes off a February layoff and his workout videos aren’t overwhelming to me, so give me late-running #4 Original Sin (pictured) in a race with plenty of set-up speed and a confident Brendan Walsh who scratches from Churchill’s Lukas Classic to seek this Grade 1.8:10 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 9 | John C. Harris Stakes | Picks 10-3-4They’ll have to catch #10 Little Opal off 2 sharp dash scores at Del Mar as the outside draw is advantageous down the hill.
By Scott Shapiro
It is about time for Opening Day of the Autumn Meet at beautiful Santa Anita Park. The short meet runs until November 1 before racing returns to Del Mar for their Bing Crosby meeting. The stand will feature a total of 26 stakes races, including seven automatic qualifiers for this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. As one would expect, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are celebrating the start of the meet in style with the return of our ever-popular Exacta-Thon promotion. This time, the minimum goal for the day is four $2 exactas. If you connect on at least that many, you will earn an equal split of $7500 with all other customers that do so. The last $2500 goes to the customer(s) that can hit as many over the ten-race slate. Here are exactas in three of the stakes races that I will include in my attempt to take down at least four $2 exactas.Race 5: Eddie D (G2)My first exacta play comes in this Grade 2 turf sprint for 3YOs down the Hillside Turf Course named for my all-time favorite jockey. The 6.5-furlong affair that kicks off the traditional $2 Pick 6 appears to have an overall lack of early speed. This should give a pace advantage to #9 Virat. The son of Bayern makes his third start of the form cycle for trainer Dan Blacker after a pair of runs over the five-furlong configuration at Del Mar. He ran respectively in those races earning a victory in a second-level allowance event before a speed and fade to third last month in the Green Flash (G2) to #6 Sorrento Sky. Blacker legs up Paco Lopez this time with a runner that is 4 for 14 over the Santa Anita sod, draws perfectly for this course to the far outside, and offers fair value at his 8-1-ML offering. He is my key horse in exactas.Plays: Exacta Wheel 9 with 1+3+6 and Exacta Box 3+9Picks: 9-3-6Race 8: Goodwood (G1)The featured event has changed names a few times recently, but has been the same nine-furlong Grade 1 test over the main track throughout. This year’s edition appears likely to have an honest early tempo given the presence of #1 Taif, #5 Midnight Mammoth, #7 Forged Steel, and #8 Caldera. I am hopeful they go at it early, setting things up for #4 Original Sin. The Calumet Farm homebred stays in Southern California after coming from last place to finish a well-beaten second to dominant winner Knightsbridge in the Pacific Classic (G1). The Curlin colt has shown a strong turn of foot throughout his ten-race career and proved versatile three starts back with his win in the Blame (G3). He will not be a huge price, but a square one making for a solid key horse in the Exacta-Thon. I will box him with the aforementioned Forged Steel since he might be the best speed and play him on top of 7-5 ML favorite #9 Nevada Beach. Last year’s winner could be tough to beat in here, but has not raced since his disappointing twelfth-place finish in the Saudi Cup (G1). His best makes him tough, but it is difficult to swallow that short price off this sort of break.Plays: Exacta Box 4+7, Exacta 4-9Picks: 4-9-7Race 9: John C. Harris (G3)The final stakes race on Goodwood Day is this $100k event down the hill for 3YO fillies. 3-2-ML favorite #10 Little Opal was a machine on the front end this summer at Del Mar cruising home to a pair of gate-to-wire wins to start her career. The appeal is obvious and the draw is tasty, but swallowing a short price based on efforts over a totally different type of surface down south just does not make a lot of sense. With that in mind, I will take a big swing on top with California-bred #9 Run With Liberty. Trainer Jeff Mullins debuted this one at one mile on the grass and has never cut him back to a shorter distance until this spot where his filly also draws favorably to the outside. She has shown tactical speed in two-turn races, which often times plays well on the turnback to the 6.5-furlong downhill course. Both of her wins came over this surface this spring and she will be a big price. I will also use #1 Mo’ Em Down. I am not love with the rail draw, but jockey Juan Hernandez knows how to ride this course well enough to hopefully overcome any potential traffic issues. #8 Day to Day is another cutback that could take a liking to this unique configuration. She ships in from Virginia for Saffie Joseph Jr. and has the tactical speed to avoid leaving herself with too much to do late. Hopefully, I can get two of these three into the number and make some coin with my final play of the day.Plays: Exacta Box 1+8+9, Exacta 9 with 1+3+4+6+8Picks: 9-1-8
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Charles Town | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $467,476 | Thistledown | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $74,179 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 3 | 6:00 pm ETKEY RACESThistledown | Race 7 | 3:50 pm ET | Catlaunch StakesDelaware County Fair | Race 15 | 4:55 pm ET | Little Brown Jug Elimination 1 | PreviewDelaware County Fair | Race 16 | 5:25 pm ET | Little Brown Jug Elimination 2 | PreviewDelaware County Fair | Race 19 | 6:42 pm ET | Little Brown Jug FinalLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXWoodbine | Race 4 | 4:51 pm ETBelmont | Race 8 | 5:15 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 8 | 8:26 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Farrior | Charles Town | all 5 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Thistledown | favorites won 1 of 8 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMAl Cimaglia: Little Brown Jug Day Spot PlaysJeremy Plonk: Charles Town Bet $100, Get $10 Promo PicksFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Al CImaglia
Al Cimaglia's best bets Thursday at the Delaware County Fair for Little Brown Jug Day free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. Little Brown Jug Eliminations Previews free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. Photo: Little Brown Jug contender MELILLO, courtesy LittleBrownJug.com / Diane Wise Photo.
By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:Opening weekend of the Santa Anita autumn meet is loaded with Breeders' Cup prep intrigue. Saturday's card includes 5 stakes with top turf sprinters clashing mid-card in the Eddie D, named for Hall of Fame jockey Eddie Delahoussaye, who had a penchant for frantic finishes. Expect this one to live up to the namesake firing down the hillside turf course.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of a $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion for Santa Anita on Saturday.Field Depth:Grade 2 winners FIRST PEACE and SORRENTO SKY have won at the level. SUMTER and FREEDOM'S NOT FREE are Grade 3 winners and Grade 2-placed. Several of these runners are evenly matched in terms of schedule strength overall.Pace:LATER THAN PLANNED adds blinkers and should be part of the early mix that includes VIRAT from the outside. For a downhill turf sprint, the pace isn't dizzying.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-SUMTER: Last 4 downhill turf sprints have netted a stakes win and 3 stakes runner-ups, despite a seemingly ugly 9: 1-3-1 overall mark at the trip. Struggles to win big races back-to-back, which may excuse his last, flat effort at Del Mar and put him squarely on the radar off a bullet workout on the training track for this. Jockey Mike Smith won this race in 2016, 2023 and 2024 and a fourth win would tie Kent Desormeaux's race record. The '23 score came for trainer Richard Mandella with Lane Way.2-LATER THAN PLANNED: The last 3-year-old to win the Eddie D was Home Run Kitten in 2014, 1 of 3 occasions in the past 30 years. No match for several of these in a similar spot in June's Daytona and will add blinkers in hopes of a perk-up while ambitiously placed to this eye. Trainer Phil D'Amato won this race in 2019 (Pee Wee Reese).3-FREEDOM'S NOT FREE: The Mark Glatt barn goes for a third Eddie D win in the last 5 years, winning in 2022 and 2024. Rallying, nose winner of the Daytona here in June rematches with several of those rivals. While not necessarily a downhill turf sprint specialist, his 5: 4-0-1 ledger on the SA lawn stands out and note that sharpened 4-year-olds have the Eddie D 3 of the last 4 years. Juan Hernandez won this race aboard Big Runneur in 2020. Huge threat late.4-AMORITA: Western Approach in 1993 remains the only filly to win the Eddie D. She's winless in 4 downhill turf sprints but has a couple of stakes runner-ups to show for it. Not sure why they opted for a dirt route at Del Mar last out and now comes back 3 weeks later against the boys in another curious spot. Not for me.5-NESSO'S LASTHARRAH: 19-1 allowance upsetter on dirt at Del Mar last out did win a downhill turf sprint at Santa Anita in the sprint vs. lesser. No-threat fifth here in the Eddie D last fall and has been sixth, 10th and 11th in her 3 stakes bids since then. Not for me.6-SORRENTO SKY: Tabbed him as a nice 7-1 winner in the Green Flash at Del Mar as he snapped a 10-race losing streak that witnessed several narrow losses. Really liked the way he finished up in his allowance prep to the Green Flash and he continued that fine closing form. Third in this race last year and a return to the ticket Saturday won't be a surprise. Be price sensitive; last time's good play at 7-1 should be close to those odds again to back in this race.7-PURE MADNESS: Trainer Brian Koriner campaigned star turf sprinter California Flag to 3 victories in the Eddie D (2008, 2009, 2011). Pure Madness has been equally competent on turf and dirt, short and long, witnessed by a 7: 4-3-0 record that leaves little to criticize. This will be the lightly raced 5-year-old's first matchup in an open stakes and first time against many of these familiar turf sprint stakes rivals. Won't be surprised if he's in the mix from the start and sticking around to the wire. Jockey Armando Ayuso won this race a year ago aboard Reef Runner.8-FIRST PEACE: Veteran Eddie D performer won this race in 2024 and was a flat seventh as the favorite last year in his title defense. The 6-year-old has lost all 3 starts this season and loses longtime pilot Mike Smith on Saturday to Sumter. Fear not on the pilot, though, as Joel Rosario takes the mount after a strong Del Mar summer and long history of turf sprint success. Note his last 2 losses at Del Mar were around 2 turns. On his best, First Peace rates as one of the best downhill turf sprinters active and, as noted, Mark Glatt has won this 2 of the last 4 years. The last 2 times this horse went route-to-sprint, he won the 2024 Eddie D and finished a close second in the 2024 Siren Lure over the same trip. Fair to question if he's the same horses as 2024, but Glatt is going to a successful form cycle repeat to find out. Mixed vibes.9-VIRAT: Lightning early in the Green Flash at Del Mar before setting for third at 11-1 odds. He's cross-entered in the Great West Turf Sprint at Remington Park on Sunday's Oklahoma Derby Day card. While just 1 win in his last 8 starts, his recent form has been on the uptick. Jockey Paco Lopez picking up the mount is significant as he's arguably the best turf sprint rider in America (certainly a top-3 discussion with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Joel Rosario).Most Likely Exotics Contender:SUMTER has been dialed in at this trip and signalled his readiness with a big work Sunday.Best Longshot Contender:Outside posts are an edge down the hill and the lack of early pace in here could give VIRAT every chance to take them as far as he can and hold for a piece of the exotics at a double-digit price.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$50 win SUMTER. $10 exacta key-box SUMTER with FREEDOM'S NOT FREE and PURE MADNESS ($40). $10 exacta SUMTER over VIRAT.
By Frank Carulli
“Turf’s up” at Santa Anita for the start of the Fall Meet this Friday. The popular $3 All-Turf Pick 3 covers races 4, 6 and 8 with a reduced 15-percent takeout. Here’s a closer look:Santa Anita Race 4 (5:36 p.m. EST) FAUSTO couldn’t match the move of the last-to-first winner but he finished second in a double key race three starts back under the same conditions. BORN TO ROCK improved with Lasix, now returns as a gelding for trainer Michael McCarthy, who was 28-for-167 with turf horses at Santa Anita in the past year with an average $11.60 win mutuel. AFTER DAWN couldn’t keep pace with the two short-priced favorites on the final turn, but he is working forwardly off that improved second-out try at this level. His sire, Frosted, never raced on turf but he was a multiple graded stakes winner at this distance and three of his siblings won grass stakes in different countries. MIGHTY TORO rallied 3-wide into a solid pace, led at the stretch call just missed in his first try at this level. He holds a tactical advantage and must be used in the leadoff leg despite a short price.Santa Anita Race 6 (6:40 p.m. EST) JORDI BEAR checked hard and out of contention two starts back, but he added blinkers and narrowed the winning margin of Proletariat (4-7, $389k) in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby in his first run at today’s 1-1/8-mile distance. PIEDRA FRIA, our top choice in here, saved ground, got first run on the two favorites and won convincingly is his 5F debut. The winning time was a second faster than a $25,000/nw2 grass sprint on the same card. Trainer Doug O’Neill is 5-for-23 in the past year with second-out turf starters, with four of the winners being dismissed at double-digit odds.Santa Anita Race 8 (7:41 p.m. EST) GOLDENLYNN, the daughter of two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champion Golden Pal, worked in :59.1 from the gate on the Santa Anita main track September 13, a day when 3 of 36 workouts at 5F timed faster than one minute. She is sure to draw a lot of support in her debut. THEBEACHISBACK has the experience edge and a good race under her belt. She was 4-wide on the backstretch and turn, gained late on the dueling winner but finished third, between a trio of deep closers. Five of her seven rivals today are first-time starters.Suggested Pick 3SA 4th Race: 1, 2, 3, 6SA 6th Race: 2, 6SA 8th Race: 1, 8Cost for a $3 ticket: $48
By Jeremy Plonk
Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet play for extra cash in September with the Fall into Fortune promotion. Bet $100, Get $10 on select tracks each Tuesday and Thursday. Up next on Thursday: Charles Town. Here are my key plays in West Virginia with an assist from the Betmix database.Charles Town: Race 3 | pm ET#3 Saint Shance (4-1 morning line odds) stretches out to 1-1/16 miles for the first time and could leave some slow maidens in his wake. Trainer Anthony Farrior is 29% wins and 47% in the exacta in local maiden special weight route races the past 5 years. Jockey Jeiron Barbosa has wild 34% win rate in local 1-1/16 miles races around 3 turns like this. Kentucky back class won’t hurt this one in a race with 2 other former big circuit runners. Win #3. Picks 3-7-6Charles Town: Race 8 | 10:32 pm ET#1 Iceteca (8-1 morning line odds) is the only starter on the card for red-hot trainer Jean Adorno, a barn that’s gone 6: 3-1-2 in September after going 11-for-80 on the local year prior. This was hasn’t run since early August and could show improvement like the rest of the barn. Wi-place #1. Exacta box 1-6. Picks 1-6-7
By Al CImaglia
Check it out free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. For Al's handicapping picks for Little Brown Jug Day, check back Thursday to Xpressbet.com.