By Jeremy Plonk
The $1 million Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup christens opening day at the brand-new Belmont Park facility. The 1,167-day wait since the July 9, 2023 reconstruction closure gets glossed by quickly with an elite group of horses at a mile and one-quarter.Let’s meet the contenders for the Jockey Club Gold Cup (Race 5):#1-BAEZA: Last year's Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby winner and Kentucky Derby / Belmont Stakes third-place finisher has yet to find the end zone in 3 starts as a 4-year-old. The Bill Mott trainee is one of two runners here for the barn that will be pinch-hitting for the reigning Horse of the Year, Sovereignty, who was forced to miss the race with a reported foot abscess. Junior Alvarado, regular rider for Sovereignty, picks up the mount; they were third together in May’s Alysheba at Churchill. Mott and Alvarado teamed to win this race in 2022 with Olympiad (among Mott’s 4 career JCGC victories). Baeza will race without blinkers for the first time since his 2024 debut.#2-STARS AND STRIPES: If Baeza is Plan B for Bill Mott in the JCGC, then this 4-year-old winner of Saratoga’s listed Birdstone Stakes would be Plan C. He has won 3 of 5 starts this year against lesser competition, including Keeneland’s Grade 3 Ben Ali Stakes. No match for Friday return rival Phileas Fogg in the Suburban on July 4. John Velazquez takes the mount for the first time. He’s a 4-time Jockey Club Gold Cup winner, including last year aboard Antiquarian.#3-CHUNK OF GOLD: The 2025 West Virginia Derby winner has earned just shy of $1 million with consistency his calling card, placing in 7 other stakes races. But he’s 0-3 this year for trainer Ethan West out of his Turfway Park home base, including a neck runner-up in the 1-1/16 miles Iselin at Monmouth. Jaime Torres rode him for the first time on the Jersey Shore and returns. Son of 2019 JCGC fourth-place finisher and beaten favorite Preservationist.#4-PHILEAS FOGG: Last year’s pace-making third-place finisher looks to close the Jockey Club Gold Cup deal in his second chance. The mile and one-quarter trip has been within his grasp, winning 3 times at the classic distance in stakes company. The 6-year-old won Saratoga’s Grade 2 Suburban by 10 lengths most recently under returning rider Kendrick Carmouche. Gustavo Rodriguez trains the $55K bargain buy who has earned $1.1 million with 11 wins in 24 starts.#5-BANISHING: Never one whose connections aren’t game for a challenge, the versatile campaigner visits his 11th track when he makes his Belmont debut. The $3.9 million earner has just 1 NYRA start (a 2024 Saratoga allowance) but has won stakes this year in Dubai and at Ellis Park. He exits a runner-up in the Charles Town Classic when narrowly missing a title defense in that race. David Jacobson tabs Joel Rosario, coming off a bounce-back summer at Del Mar and a 2-time JCGC winner, to ride for the first time.#6-RENDER JUDGMENT: Four-year-old seeks his first stakes victory in start #15. The 2025 Kentucky Derby 17th-place finisher has a Churchill allowance win on his ledger from 6 starts this year. Son of 2010 Jockey Club Gold Cup runner-up / beaten favorite Blame. Manny Franco, Saratoga’s record-setting leading jockey this summer, has the first-time call for trainer Kenny McPeek. Franco orchestrated a JCGC stunner in 2018 with 45-1 shot Discreet Lover.#7-FOREVER YOUNG: The $31,758,590 earner – don’t adjust your screen; it’s accurate – makes his fourth American sojourn from Japan and has a huge history stateside. He was a head third in the 2024 Kentucky Derby, third again in the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic and got over the top in winning the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic. The 5-year-old seemed as good as ever when he reappeared this spring. Forever Young out-finished the fleet American Nysos in a February showdown in the 1-turn Saudi Cup and followed up with a runner-up to American hope Magnitude in the Dubai World Cup over this JCGC distance when last seen in March. Regular rider Ryusei Sakai will be in his familiar perch for trainer Yoshito Yahagi. The plan is to use the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Belmont’s synthetic training surface to prepare for a Breeders’ Cup title defense at Keeneland.
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVES1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Assiniboia Downs | tonight’s late pick 4NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $118,813 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $355,783 | Thistledown | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETPick 5 | $1,890 | Presque Isle | begins Race 1 | 3:30 pm ETPick 5 | $2,222 | Presque Isle | begins Race 4 | 4:51 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $2,097 | Mountaineer | begins Race 8 | 9:55 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXFort Erie | Race 1 | 12:15 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 5 | 4:14 pm ETMountaineer | Race 1 | 7:00 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJonathan Buckley | Finger Lakes | 6 of 7 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Parx | Saturday’s PA Derby drew 11 (Further Ado, The Puma, Iron Honor et al)Yesterday | Gulfstream | jockey Leonel Reyes | 5 wins (all 2-1 or less odds)PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Al CImaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card. The $1.00 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 5. The Spot Plays are in Race 1, Race 2, and 3. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 1 (6:45 PM EDT)3-Missed The Truth A (5-1)-Makes the 1st start for the Dilloian barn and that outfit posts 40% winners in this situation. The veteran has finished 2nd against this kind 2 and 3 back. The winners are not in this field and last time left from post 6 and finished 3rd after being hung the mile. Gets post relief, comes right back and Jim Marohn takes pictures for this barn at a 25% clip. The cause for pause is the 1-18 record at Yonkers but will look for an honest price and will respect the connections.3-1-5Race 2 (7:05 PM EDT)1-Keayang Kamikaze A (6-1)-The toughest customers are starting from post 2-3-4 and they have been a bit better. But at 6-1 in the morning line, coming back in sequence and most importantly drawing the rail the 9-year-old is worth a play. The last time it can back in sequence was on 8-5. Drew the 1-hole versus this kind and went gate to wire. Not sure that plan will be followed but from the inside Jim Marohn can show good gate speed. Could get the top or the 2-hole and be there at the wire at a square price.1-2-3Race 3 (7:25 PM EDT)4-Chase H Hanover (5/2)-Won't be a big price but should offer fair value as others will attract money who have drawn outside. Joe B drives his own, 2 back he did the same and sizzled a 26.4 opening quarter. Fell a nose short but this time could be different. There isn't big gate speed leaving from the inside so should be able to get the top without using up much gas. If Joe B taps the breaks after landing on the point it can lead to a picture.4-1-3Check me out on X!
By Xpressbet
SCHEDULE NOTESMonmouth Park | closing day of 2026 seasonSPECIAL WAGERSSummer Sweep Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 7-8-9, Woodbine Races 7-9--$1 minimum, 15% takeout, no CAWTOURNAMENT TIME$40 Los Alamitos (TB) Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $59,158 | Monmouth | begins Race 3 | 1:54 pm ETPick 6 | $18,719 | Los Alamitos (TB) | begins Race 3 | 5:04 pm ETPick 6 | $11,408 | Los Alamitos (QH) | begins Race 3 | 9:40 pm ETKEY RACESWoodbine | Race 7 | 4:14 pm ET | Bull Page StakesWoodbine | Race 9 | 5:17 pm ET | Victorian Queen StakesWoodbine | Race 10 | 5:47 pm ET | Belfountain StakesAlbuquerque | Race 8 | 6:25 pm ET | Budweiser Special StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXMonmouth | Race 5 | 2:57 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 8 | 4:22 pm ETWoodbine | Race 11 | 6:17 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJose D’Angelo | Gulfstream | 5 of 6 entrants 3-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Churchill Downs | jockey Flavien Prat, trainer Bob Baffert | each with 3 stakes winsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMBrian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Al CImaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool, with a low 14% takeout. The Spots Plays for tonight are in Race 7, Race 8, and Race 15. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 7 (8:12 PM EDT)9-Two Oclock Johnny (4-1)-This 10-year-old won 2 back with tonight's pilot Dan Noble at the controls. He was absent last week when the veteran drew post 9 and got a rough ride. Raced wide most of the way last time and still closed some down the lane. Noble may have to take some air tonight but there is really no one to fear. Will respect chances on the driver change. Noble posts 19% winners for the Whitney Johnson barn and is in a spot to add to that total.9-5-6Race 8 (8:34 PM EDT)6-Quickaway (4-1)-Makes its Nfld debut in the Sam Schillaci barn after drawing off by 10 lengths at Tioga. The 3-year-old faces some older foes here and the trainer owns a piece. Has been off since 8-22 and will look for a solid price and an aggressive steer. Could be up to the challenge and did bank over $144,000 in 2025.6-5-4Race 15 (11:08 PM EDT)3-Crista K (3-1)-Dropped and raced against this kind last week. Drew the 9-hole and was able to land in the pocket and finished as a bridesmaid. Didn't make the most of a 2-hole trip but was in against a well-meant winner. May have met a beatable field this time and the money will show on the rail horse the 8/5 choice with Dan Noble. That 5-year-old is only 1-19 this year, so will look to fade and rely on the team Lems trainee to have more in the tank down the lane tonight.3-1-5Check me out on X!
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVES$5,000 Exacta-Thon | Woodbine | today’s races15% Winnings Boost | Churchill Downs | win bets on today’s races (up to $25)Bet $100, Get $10 | Red Shores-Charlottetown (harness) | today’s racesSPECIAL WAGERSSummer Sweep Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 8-9-10, Woodbine Races 8-9--$1 minimum, 15% takeout, no CAWTOURNAMENT TIME$1,000 Woodbine Mile Challenge | details$40 Los Alamitos (TB) Feeder | details$40 Canterbury Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSSuper Hi 5 | $8,702 | Churchill Downs | Race 1 | 12:45 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $55,347 | Monmouth | begins Race 3 | 1:52 pm ETMandatory Payout Super Hi 5 | $156,692 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 5 | 3:05 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $117,423 (CAN) | Woodbine | begins Race 7 | 4:12 pm ETKEY RACES2:11 pm ET | Delaware Park | Race 4 | DTHA Governor’s Day Handicap2:25 pm ET | Gulfstream | Race 5 | Umphrey Turf Sprint Stakes2:40 pm ET | Laurel | Race 6 | Sensible Lady Turf Dash3:05 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 5 | Natalma Stakes3:21 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 6 | Open Mind Stakes3:37 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 6 | Vigil Stakes3:42 pm ET | Laurel | Race 8 | Laurel Dash3:54 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 7 | Louisville TB Society Stakes4:04 pm ET | Gulfstream | Race 8 | Ginger Punch Stakes4:12 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 7 | Summer Stakes4:26 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 8 | Pocahontas Stakes4:33 pm ET | Gulfstream | Race 9 | Princess Rooney Stakes4:44 pm ET | Delaware Park | Race 9 | Rosenberger Memorial Stakes4:45 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 8 | Ontario Matron Stakes4:58 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 9 | Locust Grove Stakes5:20 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 9 | Woodbine Mile | Meet the Contenders5:29 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 10 | Iroquois Stakes5:55 pm ET | Woodbine | Race 10 | E.P. Taylor Stakes7:45 pm ET | Louisiana Downs | Race 7 | Super Derby8:17 pm ET | Los Alamitos | Race 9 | Becca Taylor StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXChurchill Downs | Race 3 | 1:46 pm ETDelaware Park | Race 5 | 2:42 pm ETWoodbine | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBob Baffert | Churchill Downs | all 6 entrants 5-1 or less odds (4 at 3-1 or less)DID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Churchill Downs | jockey Jose Ortiz | 3 wins, 2 seconds from 8 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMMatt Bernier: Woodbine Mile AnalysisJeremy Plonk: Race of the Week – Princess Rooney at GulfstreamBrian Nadeau: Gulfstream Park full-card picksJeremy Plonk: 20 Stakes in 20 Sentences Analysis for SaturdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Brian Nadeau
A big Saturday at Gulfstream includes 3 stakes, the featured Grade 3 Princess Rooney at the head of the class. The undercard includes the Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint as well as the Ginger Punch.Race 1:The aptly-named 9 EXPECTATIONS gets the call in the opener, as she cost a pricey 240k as a yearling, debuts for a Biancone barn that is 32% first-turf and 22% on debut, and meets a crew there for the taking. The speed and experience of 6 AMERICAN REIGN gives her an edge, so if the pick isn’t ready (or isn’t bet), she figures the one to catch after a close 3rd last time. Look for an improved effort from 7 FIB after a duel-and-tire 6th in her debut at Cnl. SELECTIONS: 9-6-7-4Race 2:Tough to see big dropper 4 SPY NOVEL losing to a group like this, as his best dominates, he’ll be close throughout, and enters off a slew of works to suggest he’s simply here to pick up a win. If the heavy favorite does stub his toe, then both 2 DIMANCHE GRAS and 5 BLUE SLIDE PARK have recent wins to put them next in line. SELECTIONS: 4-2-5-7Race 3:Taking the short price with 5 SENTA SAYS, who lays over these off her Tapeta comeback, is bred for the main, and has a big recency edge too. You get EX value from 6 HURRICANE OPUS adding Lasix, though a 12/2 layoff hurts, as does one from 11/27 with 3 DIAMOND’S HONOR, who was a voided claim that day too. SELECTIONS: 5-6-3-2Race 4:There’s a chance that 7 MAGIC HEART regresses off a good 2nd, but he’ll offer the right risk/reward, a good combo in a race with an iffy favorite. Which leads to 3 BAKERS STREET, who bombed at 8-5 on turf and now drops off-the-claim for Fawkes, and while that’s a wild 20-for-50 move, this seems fishy. There’s no speed here, so first-time gelding 6 SHERMAN FURY could get brave in his return. SELECTIONS: 7-3-6-4Race 5: Bob Umphrey Turf SprintIt’s a bold Best Bet in the Bob Umphrey Turf Sprint, as 1 MATTINGLY ran (and was bet) like a short horse in his return, yet ran well, will be tighter here for Orseno, and has the perfect stalking style in a race loaded with speed. Stablemate 6 REZASROLEX will take all the beating on the G2 drop and a 3-2-1-0 local mark, though he’ll be overbet off a Saratoga chase-and-fade, so he’s worth trying to beat on top. Not sure about 8 THOUGHT CONTROL, who freaked trying turf, but hasn’t been seen since that 5/10 win, and meets a world of other speed too. SELECTIONS: 1-6-8-2Race 6:A stalking gear in a race with a hot pace says the in-form 2 FINAL PAYMENT can get first run on dropping 6 LETHAL SPEED, so let’s play it that way to the hoop, in a race that may fall apart late. Can’t see 5 SMOKE AN A PANCAKE pressing early and lasting late, so use him underneath only. SELECTIONS: 2-6-5-4Race 7:If the money shows—and it should—then 8 EARTHLY DELIGHTS will be tough in his debut, as he’s a 410k son of Union Rags (stands for 10k) who is kin to a G1 winner, and has worked big for this too. There’s some pedigree power with 2 ARABIAN CROWN as well, though his half brother was a graded winner going long on turf, so he may need this, grass, and/or an extra turn. The “other Saffie” has already popped at the meet, so don’t ignore 1 TAILBREEZIN JOKE, though the rail for a firster going 7Fs is never easy. SELECTIONS: 8-2-1-7Race 8: Ginger Punch StakesIt’s Longshot time in the Ginger Punch with 2 LETS GO KOKO, who needed her 8/16 comeback when 6th behind several here, but is former local stakes winner who has speed, and looks primed for a big move up off the tightener. No doubt 9 MISS MARY NELL ran best on the 16th, even though she was a tiring 3rd, as she middle moved into a hellacious pace and paid the price, while other laid back and took advantage late. Including winner 6 FANTASY PERFORMER, and while it’s never easy to dismiss a horse who beat many she meets again, a different flow says you should make her back it up. SELECTIONS: 2-9-6-3Race 9: Princess Rooney StakesA starting berth into the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint is on the line in the G3 Princess Rooney, and California invader 3 SIMPLY JOKING seems to hold a class edge off solid G1 form, and her route speed suggests she’ll sit a dream trip off an expected hot and contested pace on the cutback to 7Fs. You can’t knock 2 KERRY’S KISS, who is clearly the best of the locals off back-to-back stakes wins since moving to Saffie’s barn, though she won both on the lead, and figures to face pace pressure on both sides today. The stalking style of 5 INDY BAY could allow her to turn the tables on stablemate ‘Kiss after running 2nd to her in her last two, but she’s been beaten soundly in both, and may just be a cut below at this point of her career. SELECTIONS: 3-2-5-4Race 10:Lots to like with 2 MYTHICAL MAN, as he returns to turf, drops in class, and moves to Barboza, not to mention he’ll be a decent price with heavily favored 8 MISTER ABARRIO. ‘Abarrio will be a short price on a stiff drop for Saffie, but his lack of speed and the rails out at 73’, and meek recent form (seven straight losses) don’t entice. The top-2 do have knocks, so you could do worse than 5 RASHID, who has run well in back-to-back locals runs. SELECTIONS: 2-8-5-3Best Bet: R5: #1 Mattingly (6-1)* Will be tighter off needed comeback* Stalker can sit off expected wild pace* Perfect inside draw with rails at 59’Longshot: R8: #2 Lets Go Koko (8-1)* Clearly a short horse in comeback race* Tactical speed to lay close throughout* Former stakes winner over the GP turf
By Matt Bernier
The Woodbine Mile is always an important stepping stone en route to the Breeders’ Cup Mile, as it’s seen winners parlay their success in Canada to Breeders’ Cup glory on multiple occasions in recent years. Dating back to 2012, the Woodbine Mile winner went on to win the Breeders’ Cup Mile six times: Wise Dan in 2012 and 2013, World Approval in 2017, Modern Games in 2022, Master of the Seas in 2023, and Notable Speech in 2025. Notable Speech will look to defend his title at Woodbine en route to a Breeders’ Cup Mile defense, but he faces a stiff challenge from America’s best hope on Saturday in Deterministic. Below you’ll find my fair win odds for each of these runners, as well as the rest of the field scheduled to tackle the mile distance over the E.P. Taylor turf course.1 – Deterministic / 24% / 3-12 – Gas Me Up / 6% / 15-13 – Notable Speech / 28% / 5-24 – Archivist / 20% / 4-15 – Irish Aces / 3% / 32-16 – Silius / 14% / 6-17 – Itsastormymonday / 2% / 49-18 – Pierre / 3% / 32-1I found it extremely difficult to separate the top four in the wagering for Saturday’s Mile. I’ll be stunned if one of the four don’t win, and I could even stretch and say three of the four are in a pack of their own with the fourth meriting consideration.Let’s begin on the inside with DETERMINISTIC (1), who has been nothing short of spectacular for trainer Miguel Clement. A multiple grade one winner, the son of Liam’s Map hasn’t lost a race on turf since October of 2024. He certainly loves Saratoga, having won both the G1 Manhattan and G1 Fourstardave for each of the past two seasons; it’s not as though Saratoga is the only place he can perform, however. Deterministic is also a graded stakes winners at Aqueduct and Colonial Downs, making me less concerned about his ability to handle the one-turn mile at Woodbine. On paper he looks to be the clear speed of the race – but if I can see that, so can everyone else in the field. I can’t imagine they’ll let him walk on the front, but in the event they do, he’ll have this group in a world of trouble.NOTABLE SPEECH (3) is such an admirable horse. The homebred for Godolphin and Charlie Appleby is a true globetrotter, having earned G1 success in three different countries around the world. As the defending champion of this race he figures to go off as the slight favorite over Deterministic, but I’m not convinced he holds a massive edge on his main rival – especially when factoring in the pace scenario. It’s worth noting that William Buick did have the son of Dubawi closer to the front in his most recent G1 success at York last month, so perhaps Notable Speech will be the one to ensure Deterministic doesn’t walk on the front end.He’s yet to show himself as a true grade one type, but the graded stakes victory from ARCHIVIST (4) at York last month was spectacular. Another son of Dubawi, this four-year-old gelding settled toward the rear of the field in the Strensall Stakes before sidling up alongside his main rivals in mid-stretch. Once the rider gave him his cue, Archivist scooted clear in the blink of an eye, drawing off to win by more than seven. He’s now won two races in a row and seems to be in career form. He’s likely to settle toward the rear of the field again in this spot, but he loves the one-turn configuration and possesses a potent late kick; if he gets a bit of pace to run at, he’s dangerous as the third-choice.The fourth of the quartet of main players would be SILIUS (6), who dug in gamely to take the G3 Prix Messidor at Chantilly in July. Not only did the son of – you guessed it – Dubawi prevail in the group stakes event, he defeated a runner named Erdenali. Erdenali may well end up being Europe’s best shot at winning the Breeders’ Cup Mile after setting a track record in the Prix du Moulin over the weekend at Longchamp, so to say his subsequent effort flattered Silius’ win would be an understatement (it’s also worth noting that Erdenali was very unlucky in the Messidor, as he was hemmed in behind runners for the duration and didn’t find a seam until the final jumps).With such an evenly matched group, it boils down to price – as it always does. With his sparkling performance in his most recent start and the likely price he’ll offer, I’m siding with Archivist to get the best of both Notable Speech and Deterministic on Saturday.THE PICKS: 4-3-1-6THE PLAY: WIN – 4) ARCHIVIST to WIN at odds of 4-1 or greater