By Jeremy Plonk
The race that stops a nation assumes the international stage tonight as the $7.2 million Melbourne Cup is renewed for the 166th time. The 2-mile fixture at Flemington will be Race 7 on a card that gets underway at 6:45 pm ET US. The main event takes flight at 11:00 pm ET with a field of 24 international stayers. Showery forecast expected to produce soft going.Wagering offered to US customers, including at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET includes: Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta and Pick 4 (Races 7-10). The favorite hasn’t won the Melbourne Cup since 2013 and last year’s winner, Half Yours, was third choice in the market.Let’s meet the leading contenders for the Melbourne Cup:20-POINT OF LAW (4-1): One of 7 stablemates in the lineup representing trainer Ciaran Maher, who won this race in 2022 with Gold Trip. Lightly raced son of Frankel has won 3 of 5, but yet to race above the Group 3 level and will be tested for stamina and class while the ‘now’ horse. Sold by owner/breeder King Charles of England just prior to winning the Oct. 21 Geelong Cup and was previously campaigned in the UK by John and Thady Gosden, winning the Group 3 Bahrain Trophy at Newmarket.2-TRUSTYOURINSTINCT (4-1): Group 2 Curragh Cup winner exits a fourth in the classic Group 1 Irish St. Leger in September. The 6-year-old has won 9 of 25 starts. Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien twice has found success in the Melbourne Cup (Rekindling 2017 and Twilight Pavement 2020). Jockey James McDonald won this race in 2021 aboard Very Eleegant.12-HOPEWELL ROCK (5-1): Star British trainer George Boughey has had a remarkable year with Bow Echo his stable star and last week won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint with Libertango. This UK raider was runner-up in the Ebor at York in August when last seen and has won 3 of 10, including a 1-3/4 miles handicap this summer at Goodwood. South African-born and Aussie-raised jockey Zac Lloyd has had a breakout year in 2026, winning the Golden Slipper in the Spring and getting to team with Boughey at Royal Ascot on the international stage.1-SONS AND LOVERS (10-1): Carries top weight at 127 pounds for Irish trainer Joseph O’Brien, who seeks a third Melbourne Cup success (2017, 2020). Dylan McMonagle, who rode a pair of runners-up among 4 mounts in the Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland over the weekend, will be aboard. Group 2 winner at Longchamp in July and exits a second-place effort in the Group 3 Kilternan at Leopardstown back home in Ireland in September. Sons And Lovers was fourth over the 2-mile journey at Meydan in the Dubai Gold Cup on the World Cup Day undercard.11-JUJA KIBO (14-1): Ciaran Maher’s second-best of 7 options according to the morning line prices, this one rides a 2-race win streak in the main event. Exits wins at Randwick in the Metropolitan and over this Flemington course in the Moonee Valley, both Group 2 stakes. Known to possess a strong turn of foot late in the going. Everest Stakes-winning jockey Sam Clipperton bids for his first Melbourne Cup after a return from retirement.4-MIDDLE EARTH (15-1): Leaves from the inside gate in the field of 24. Part of the 7-fold Ciaran Maher brigade looking to bring the barn its second Melbourne Cup glory. Mark Zahra knows Melbourne Cup riding success, guiding Gold Trip and Without A Fight to back-to-back wins in 2022-’23. Overmatched at the highest levels of late in the Group 1 Caulfield Cup and Group 1 Cox Plate in a 1-for-6 season that includes a Group 3 win at Doomben in May.24-SHOCKLETZ (15-1): Yet another for the Ciaran Maher outfit, whose 7 runners here include 4 of the top-7 morning line choices in the betting. Jockey Harry Coffey rides just days after a surgically repaired broken collarbone. Jockey Michael Dee would be Plan B. Mare gets in extremely light at 112 pounds. Runner-up Oct. 24 in the Group 3 Tesio is a daughter of 2009 Melbourne Cup winner Shocking.
By Xpressbet
MELBOURNE CUPFlemington | Race 7 | 11:00 pm ET (card begins 6:45 pm ET)NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $61,745 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:05 pm ETPick 5 | $17,612 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | begins Race 4 | 3:00 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $1,303 | Mountaineer | Race 8 | 9:55 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXMahoning Valley | Race 6 | 2:35 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | 5:00 pm ETMountaineer | Race 5 | 7:00 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBrandon Kulp | Parx | all 5 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Mountaineer | Race 2 | 125-1 winner Sway Me Over debuted a $252.20 mutuel and keyed a dime super worth a national-best $9.515.60.PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section
By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The $1.00 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool starts in Race 5. The Spot Plays are in Race 2, Race 6, and Race 10. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 2 (7:05 PM EST)6-Vicious (5-1)-This is the 3rd start back after a lame scratch on 8-31. Came off the bench on 10-19, drew the 8-hole, and put in a no-move mile. Then came back in sequence, left from post 4, landed in the pocket and finished that way. Now bumps up and should be a solid price. Can leave and land right behind Jason Bartlett on the rail horse who is even money in the program. The 7-year-old has a tactical edge in a race without much early speed inside. Could challenge the chalk if the opening turn goes well.2-1-5Race 6 (8:25 PM EST)8-Theflyingrock (4-1)-If the 8/5 morning line choice #3 Missed The Truth A loses my guess it will be to someone close to the leader turning for the wire that proves best in the late going. The Rock draws outside but could fly off the gate and might get a pocket ride. Steps up, but is sharp, has won 3 straight and should be a fair price with this post draw. The 8-year-old still enjoys taking pictures, has posted 11 wins in 23 starts this year. Plus, it's Yonkers record is impressive as well (74-20-9-13).8-3-5Race 10 (9:45 PM EST)6-No Trespassing (4-1)-Took about 6-weeks off after being a sick scratch on 9-15. Comes off a dull try versus better at PcD on 10-24, ships in, and lands in a soft spot. Cashed checks versus better before the sick scratch and should enjoy the company. Bartlett gets the nod and when he steers for the Daguet barn they have combined for 41% winners. The 4-year-old should be in the mix and has a pilot who can push the button at the right time.6-2-5Check me out on X!
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVES10X 1/ST Rewards Points | Sunset 6 | Gulfstream/Santa AnitaSCHEDULE NOTESSanta Anita | closing day | mandatory payoutsBelmont | early first post 11:30 am ETSPECIAL WAGERSCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 10-11, Santa Anita Races 5-6-8Sunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 9-10-11, Santa Anita Races 8-9-10--mandatory payouts on both wagers todayTOURNAMENT TIME$1,000 Santa Anita Closing Day Challenge | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $89,654 | Gulfstream | begins Race 6 | 2:45 pm ETMandatory Payout Place Pick 8 | $22,814 | Santa Anita | begins Race 3 | 4:01 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $30,023 | Santa Anita | begins Race 5 | 5:03 pm ETPick 6 | $32,613 | Los Alamitos | begins Race 3 | 9:06 pm ETKEY RACESBelmont | Race 2 | 11:59 pm ET | Bold Ruler StakesBelmont | Race 4 | 12:57 pm ET | Notebook StakesWoodbine | Race 3 | 2:12 pm ET | Mazarine StakesBelmont | Race 8 | 2:53 pm ET | Turnback the Alarm StakesBelmont | Race 9 | 3:22 pm ET | Forty Niner StakesBelmont | Race 10 | 3:51 pm ET | Casa Creed StakesSanta Anita | Race 4 | 4:32 pm ET | Twilight DerbyWoodbine | Race 8 | 4:42 pm ET | Grey StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXChurchill | Race 6 | 3:26 pm ETBelmont | Race 10 | 3:51 pm ETSanta Anita | Race 10 | 7:33 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBrendan Walsh | Belmont | 3 of 4 entrants 7-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Woodbine | favorites won 7 of 11 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk: Race of the Week – Santa Anita’s Twilight DerbyBrian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section
By Jeremy Plonk
The Lead:The weekend's graded stakes don't end with the Breeders' Cup. Sunday's Santa Anita feature, the $200K Grade 2 Twilight Derby, sends us out with another hit. This race has been a fixture of Breeders' Cup weekends on the west coast and his year flies solo as a Sunday main event. It's closing day of the Santa Anita meeting with a $30K pick 6 carryover and mandatory payout.Field Depth:PROLETARIAT has the field's signature win in the Graded 2 Del Mar Derby (pictured). UNRIVALVED TIME was a Grade 3 winner last fall. Those 2 have kept the toughest stretngth of schedule.Pace:Over 1-1/8 miles on turf, expect front-running PROLETARIAT to dictate from the rail and looks to be heavily advantaged as lone speed.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-PROLETARIAT: Good 2YO last year has totally blossomed in 3 starts this year, winning all in front-running fashion. Has won at both Santa Anita and Del Mar and at that distance. Tough to poke holes in for this assignment for a Jeff Mullions barn that's red-hot.2-MELISMATIC: Back-to-back turf mile wins set this one up for the class rise in the Del Mar Derby but he never really closed with any oomph. Phil D'Amato trainee bred to be a miler and may be best over that trip 220 yards shorter than this.3-TRIBALISM: Outkicked in allowance mile at Del Mar late by MELISMATIC and, like that one, offered little fanfare in the Del Mar Derby on the rise and stretch-out. Switches riders to Jamie Spencer but will have to turn the tables on MELISMATIC before even considering bigger prizes.4-ESSOS: Mark Glatt trainee got his first turf win stretching out to 1-1/4 miles at Santa Anita on Oct. 18 and now tries turf stakes company for the first time. Has twice beaten older horses and that's a feather in the cap this time of year back against only sophomores. Distance will be no issue, but gives a ton of pace to PROLETARIAT and would need some help to soften that one up to beat him.5-UNRIVALED TIME: Late-running Del Mar Derby fourth was much closer that day to PROLETARIAT than in the Oceanside over a mile. He's a 9-furlong winner on turf in the Cal-bred Snow Chief Stakes and definitely suited for the distance. Joel Rosario takes over the mount for the first time.6-PATH TO POWER: Formidable Phil D'Amato-Juan Hernandez team puts this distance-pedigreed gelding into stakes for the first time. He has been battling older horses over 9 and 11 furlongs and should match up well with these despite the class rise.Most Likely Exotics Contender:PROLETARIAT is the obvious horse to beat and difficult to imagine running off the ticket.Best Longshot Contender:ESSOS is equipped for the trip and the Glatt-Rispoli team has been a successful pairing.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$50 Exacta part-wheel PROLETARIAT over PATH TO POWER and ESSOS.
By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park has a 15-race card. The Spot Plays are in Race 2, Race 6, and Race 10. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and the sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 2 (6:22 PM EST)4-Heart Song (7-1)-Shipped in from Aces and put in a decent effort, stayed inside but did gain ground in the late going. Went the back-half in 56.4 and it was a month since the last start. Landed in the same condition but meets an entirely different group. The 4-year-old had a good year hitting the board in 15 of 27 with 5 pictures. Will look for better in the 2nd race in town and does have the speed to beat this field.4-1-5Race 6 (7:50 PM EST)3-Maddog Jessee (7-1)-Except for the 8/5 program chalk #2 Seeyousomewhere, this is a soft bunch. This 3-year-old learned its lessons on the Fair Circuit this season and made its Nfld debut on 10-25. Aaron Merriman was at the controls, was bet down to 1/9 and had issues. Broke stride at the start, then rallied to get within reach of the leader but went off stride again down the lane and finished 2nd. This will be the 2nd start in the Gerald Maladay barn, comes back in sequence this time, and Merriman sticks. Should be a nice price and will rely on the breaking issue to be solved.3-2-6Race 10 (8:56 PM EST)4-French Shaker (9/2)-This mare can tease you with the best of them, coming close but not sealing the deal. But now arrives at a level of past success against a beatable field. Drops, draws the 2nd best post, and should be in play early on. Pilot John Ciocca needs to provide a sharp steer, and if so, could pop at a square price with a top of the stack trip.4-1-3Check me out on X!
By Xpressbet
1/ST BREEDERS’ CUP WAGER GUIDECoverage of all 9 Saturday divisions | daily updates | free accessEXTRA INCENTIVES$25,000 Exacta-Thon | Breeders’ Cup at Keeneland10X 1/ST Rewards Points | Sunset 6 | Gulfstream/Santa AnitaSCHEDULE NOTESBelmont | early first post 11:05 am ETKeeneland | early first post 11:15 am ETGulfstream | early first post 12:00 pm ETWoodbine | early first post 12:30 pm ETSPECIAL WAGERSCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 10-11, Santa Anita Races 5-6-8Sunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 9-10-11, Santa Anita Races 8-9-10TOURNAMENT TIME$10,000 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge | KeenelandNOTABLE CARRYOVERSSuper Hi 5 | $18,546 | Keeneland | Race 1 | 11:15 am ETJackpot Pick 5 | $58,609 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETPick 5 | $25,687 (CAN) | Woodbine | begins Race 2 | 1:00 pm ETPlace Pick 8 | $37,029 | Gulfstream | begins Race 4 | 1:35 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $76,164 | Gulfstream | begins Race 6 | 2:47 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $59,386 | Charles Town | begins Race 3 | 8:02 pm ETPick 6 | $32,613 | Los Alamitos | begins Race 3 | 9:59 pm ETKEY RACESKeeneland | Race 4 | 1:10 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup F&M SprintKeeneland | Race 5 | 1:48 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup Turf SprintKeeneland | Race 6 | 2:26 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup Dirt MileKeeneland | Race 7 | 3:04 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup F&M TurfGulfstream | Race 7 | 3:25 pm ET | Armed Forces StakesKeeneland | Race 8 | 3:42 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup SprintBelmont | Race 9 | 3:58 pm ET | Knickerbocker StakesKeeneland | Race 9 | 4:20 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup MileSanta Anita | Race 3 | 4:33 pm ET | Golden State Juvenile StakesBelmont | Race 10 | 4:38 pm ET | Key Cents StakesKeeneland | Race 10 | 4:58 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup DistaffKeeneland | Race 11 | 5:36 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup TurfGulfstream | Race 11 | 5:55 pm ET | Showing Up StakesKeeneland | Race 12 | 6:16 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup ClassicSanta Anita | Race 8 | 7:30 pm ET | Goldikova StakesSanta Anita | Race 9 | 8:00 pm ET | Golden State Juvenile Fillies StakesCharles Town | Race 4 | 8:32 pm ET | Casey Memorial StakesDelta Downs | Race 8 | 8:56 pm ET | Louisiana Legacy StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 5 | 1:48 pm ETBelmont | Race 6 | 1:58 pm ETLaurel | Race 6 | 2:43 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMichael McCarthy | Santa Anita | all 4 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Remington Park | trainer Steve Asmussen | won a track-record 6 racesPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM1/ST BET All-Stars: All-Stakes Pick 5 Tickets for Breeders’ Cup SaturdayScott Shapiro: Keeneland Full-Card Picks for SaturdayMatt Bernier: Breeders’ Cup Turf AnalysisFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section
By Scott Shapiro
Championship Saturday is just hours away at this point. Nine Grade 1 events with Eclipse Awards up for grabs and the best in the world competing for massive purses. What more could a horseplayer ask for?Winners I suppose, along with at least six $2 exactas to help you earn your share of the $15k up for grabs during the Saturday portion of our $25,000 Exacta-Thon promotion. Check out my Friday blog or the promotional landing page for more details. So, without further ado (pun intended), here is how I see the full 12-race Breeders’ Cup World Championships card that gets started at 11:15 AM eastern.Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: BUse: 4 Knicks Diamonds; 7 Bourbon NeatForecast: The Breeders’ Cup undercard kicks off with this MSW event for 2YOs at seven-furlongs over the main track where I like second-time starter #4 Knicks Diamonds. The son of Knicks Go broke sharp on debut before being taken in hand by jockey Francisco Arrieta to sit mid-pack. The Matthew Sims trainee remained outside throughout, which was not ideal over the October 2 surface before putting in a solid late run to earn third. The Jerome Russell homebred has every reason to move forward with the start under his belt and the added furlong. Sims may not be a household name, but he is capable and does a strong job with the stock he gets. Hopefully, he gets overlooked in the wagering in the first leg of the early Pick 5.Race 2:Grade: B-Use: 4 Harmoniously; 5 VirabhadrasanaForecast: This second-level allowance event for 2YO fillies at seven-furlongs over the main track goes through 5-2-ML favorite #9 Right in Time. The Riley Mott trainee won easily on debut in gate-to-wire fashion over this racetrack, but is likely to have to deal with a lot more company in the early stages in her first try versus winners. So, I will use a pair of runners I expect to sit a few lengths off the early proceedings. #5 Virabhadrasana regressed last out against allowance foes after a win going away to break her maiden at Saratoga. She should get the right trip, as should top pick #4 Harmoniously. The Cherie DeVaux trainee broke on top and went to the lead on debut at Ellis Park in late August, but I expect different tactics under Jose Ortiz. She finished well in her upset victory at first asking and should have no issue with the added ground. A perfect pocket voyage is possible and would make her tough to beat.Race 3:Grade: BUse: 2 Steeze/11 Saudi Crown; 1 BoothForecast: This third-level allowance event at 6.5-furlongs over the main track could easily be a stakes race. 5-2-ML favorite #11 Saudi Crown has competed in almost all stakes events over the last couple years and has put together quite a resume earning over $3.7M for trainer Brad Cox. The 6YO son of Always Dreaming is likely to sit a favorable stalking voyage over a racetrack he is 2 for 2 over, but is almost certain to get over bet by the public. I will use him underneath, but focus my wagering on #2 Steeze. The son of Vekoma takes on the toughest group he has encountered thus far and needs to prove he can perform as well without the anti-bleeding medication Lasix, but I love the way he comes into the race. He is one of the stronger finishers in this group and should get a ground saving, mid-pack voyage under Junior Alvarado.Race 4: Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)Grade: B-Use: 5 Foie Gras; 11 Explora; 12 Kilwin/7 Evanescence; 6 Majestic OopsForecast: #2 Ways and Means is the understandable 7-5-ML favorite in the first of nine Breeders’ Cup races to close the afternoon. The Practical Joke mare comes in having won 2 of 3 in 2026, including a dominant victory in the Ballerina (G1) when we saw her last. If she runs to her races at Saratoga, they are running for second, but the potential good news for those looking for value is that she has yet to run as fast elsewhere. Couple with that a potentially dirt-filled trip down on the inside and it feels like a good chance to take a swing against the chalk.A number of runners appear live with #11 Explora one of the likeliest winners. The problem is the early pace could be quick, which brings horses like #6 Majestic Oops, #7 Evanescence, and #12 Kilwin into the mix. That said, I am hopeful to get a perfect stalking trip with longshot #5 Foie Gras. The Mike Maker trainee has done very little wrong through five starts in 2026 and comes in off an easy victory at 6-5 in the Pink Ribbon at Charlestown. Veteran Joel Rosario takes the mount.Race 5: Turf Sprint (G1)Grade: B-Use: 12 Sorrento Sky; 10 Cy Fair/3 Bacio; 13 Starlust; 5 Time to DazzleForecast: #3 Bacio enters the Turf Sprint with a 5 for 6-record with his lone loss coming by a half-length in career start number two at Santa Anita last fall. He has been training well and is the one to beat on paper, but this race could play out far differently than others he has been in given the serious speed to his inside and immediate outside. If Juan Hernandez can avoid getting caught up in a potential early tussle, the Maclean’s Music colt is in with a big chance, but that is a big “if” in this full-field event at 5.5-furlongs, so I will take a swing against at his 5-2-ML offering.I almost landed on the 3YO filly #10 Cy Fair, who deserved better in her sixth-place effort at odds-on at Kentucky Downs in September, but will have to put forth a career best run chasing a fast pace to do so. Instead, I went with late running #12 Sorrento Sky. The 5YO gelding has always been honest, but struggled to win races at the stakes level. That changed this summer when he came with a last-to-first rally to win the Green Flash (G2) before backing it up with a score in the Eddie D (G2). Jockey Umberto Rispoli has a challenge to avoid significant ground loss, but at least he should avoid traffic issues. The price should be right to gamble for a late collapse.Race 6: Dirt Mile (G1)Grade: B-Use: 7 Bracket Buster/11 Iron Man Cal; 3 Full SerranoForecast: #1 Further Ado is likely to take a ton of public support in this year’s Dirt Mile given his connections, resume, and success over this surface. He is another horse that obviously can win, but is likely to take far too much public money for me. I prefer #7 Bracket Buster. Many will look to his loss at Parx at odds-on last month and come to the conclusion that this class level is a bit much for the Vekoma colt, but I thought he ran fine in the Parx Dirt Mile and just ran into a horse that got the jump and forgot to stop. Unlike many in this group, the 4YO has been pointing to this race for awhile now and should relish the two-turn one-mile configuration at Keeneland. Johnny V is back to ride after being aboard in each of his last three starts.Race 7: Filly & Mare Turf (G1)Grade: CUse: 8 Jancis; 12 Blue Bolt; 3 Classic Q; 4 Red LetterForecast: Horses based outside of the United States have dominated this event of late, including Gezora a year ago. I do not see that changing in 2026 where #12 Blue Bolt is the clear one to beat, but has to answer distance questions. The same is true for second choice #11 Precise. Both European-based fillies bring incredibly strong resumes in, but their likely price makes them tough to endorse with confidence. I took a swing instead with #8 Jancis. The 5YO mare makes her second start in North America after a neck loss to #1 Gimme a Nother in the E.P. Taylor (G1) in Canada in September. She and #4 Red Letter are the international runners that could get overlooked in the wagering making them intriguing alternatives to the favorites.Race 8: Sprint (G1)Grade: XUse: 13 Englishman/11 T O ElvisForecast: I have no desire to get creative in this year’s Sprint given the presence of #13 Englishman and #11 T O Elvis. In a vacuum, Englishman is the fastest horse in this race and training like he is ready to run another big one. The caveat is there is a lot of speed signed on to his inside. The outside draw should benefit the 4-5-favorite, but he could get caught wide throughout battling with some other serious sprinters. This would pave the way for T O Elvis. The Churchill Downs (G1) winner has not raced since his upset score on Derby Day, but has been pointed to this race and appears to be coming into it ready to fire another big shot. I would be surprised if one of the two top choices get to the wire first.Race 9: Mile (G1)Grade: B+Use: 8 Notable Speech/12 True LoveForecast: Trainer Charles Appleby has won this race 4 of the last 5 years and has a massive shot to win yet another. Appleby sends out last year’s winner #8 Notable Speech. The Godolphin homebred has won 3 of 5 since his off-the-pace score at Del Mar, including a strong run in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last month. The 5YO gelding appears to be as good as ever and should get a great setup with regular rider William Buick back aboard in hopes of adding to his record four wins in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. I am not betting against him doing so.Race 10: Distaff (G1)Grade: BUse: 4 Fully Subscribed; 6 Measure/3 RegaledForecast: I was disappointed by the scratches of #5 Scottish Lassie and #8 Splendora in this year’s Distaff because prior to their omission this was my favorite betting race of the weekend. I still like it, but am not as confident in the pace being fast early. It should still be honest though, which should bode well for those who can settle early and finish.#4 Fully Subscribed is for the most part race shape independent given her tactical speed, but is best off with an honest early tempo. This would allow Flavien Prat to settle mid-pack and get a significant jump on the closers. If the pace is as hot as I originally suspected, #6 Measure is very live to pick up the pieces at a price. The daughter of Essential Quality has just one win on her resume, but is a strong finisher that benefits with the nine-furlong distance more than others. She should be finishing well, as should #3 Regaled. The concern with the Whit Beckman trainee is that she is far better over an off-track. Fortunately, it looks like the weather will be good for Championship Saturday.Race 11: Turf (G1)Grade: CUse: 2 Benvenuto Cellini; 13 Bay City Roller; 12 Diamond Necklace; 1 Ethical Diamond; 7 Hotazhell; 9 Johanna Walsh; 10 TiffanyForecast: As you can see from my grade and the number of runners I am using in this year’s Turf, I lack a strong opinion other than I do not anticipate a runner from the United States hitting the wire first. I went with #2 Benvenuto Cellini on top given his post and rider, but obviously #12 Diamond Necklace and #13 Bay City Roller merit major respect as well. Do not snooze on last year’s winner #1 Ethical Diamond. He will not be 27-1 again, but could be a double-digit offering when the bell sounds.Race 12: Classic (G1)Grade: C+Use: 4 The Puma; 5 Forever Young; 2 Sovereignty; 7 KnightsbridgeForecast: All three favorites in this year’s Classic offer strong cases for why they will win the lion’s share of the $7M purse. #5 Forever Young’s resume speaks for itself. The son of Real Steel has won 12 of 16 for over $32M, including last year’s event out west. He also benefits from the scratch of #6 Magnitude. This should allow him to sit a few lengths off what might be a more moderate pace than it appeared earlier in the week. #2 Sovereignty put on a show at the Spa in the Whitney (G1) when we saw him last, but not only has he not raced since, but he missed some training along the way. The fact he is racing is a bullish sign for me. We know his best is good enough. #7 Knightsbridge is almost certain to be the biggest price of the three, but clearly benefitted most from the defection of Magnitude. I do not think he is a true ten-furlong horse, but if the pace is moderate that aids his chances of finishing the deal.I had a difficult time separating the favorites and do not find any of them appealing options at their likely off-odds, so I will build my wagers around a price instead. #4 The Puma ran a career best race with the addition of blinkers in the Pennsylvania Derby last month. He overcame a wide middle move and still came home strong under jockey Javier Castellano. I wish there was a guaranteed fast pace, but this is the colt that offers the best value opportunity since he did not compete in the Triple Crown this spring and appears to be peaking at the right time.