Saturday’s First Lady at Keeneland may end up being the most competitive stakes event of the meeting outside the Breeders’ Cup, with eleven fillies and mares set to battle over the mile distance in Lexington, Kentucky. This year’s First Lady is as difficult a handicapping puzzle as you’ll find, with legitimate cases to be made for at least 75% of the field to come out on top. Annoyingly, my only advice is this: unless you absolutely love a horse, don’t “settle” on a short price. This race is far too salty to settle on a 2-1 or 3-1 shot; don’t be afraid to go out on a limb with a price in a spot like this.Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the runners scheduled to compete in the G1 First Lady as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.1 – Pin Up Betty / 2% / 49-12 – Lush Lips / 11% / 8-13 – Mandanaba / 11% / 8-14 – Expensive Queen / 14% / 6-15 – And One More Time / 8% / 12-16 – Deep Satin / 6% / 16-17 – Love You Anyway / 3% / 32-18 – Segesta / 14% / 6-19 – Classic Q / 11% / 8-110 – Bless the Broken / 14% / 6-111 – Vina Arana / 6% / 16-1There are a million ways this analysis could begin; let’s start, though, with the runners who dead-heated for the win in the G1 Jenny Wiley here in the spring – SEGESTA (8) and EXPENSIVE QUEEN (4). Segesta is a track specialist, owning a record of 3-2-1-0 in three starts over Keeneland’s turf. The knock on the five-year-old mare, however, is her recent form. While still competitive against good company in New York over the summer, it’s fair to wonder if Segesta has regressed some over the course of 2026. If that’s the case, she’s probably settling for a minor award on Saturday.Expensive Queen, on the other hand, is a bit of an unknown commodity in the First Lady. After the dead heat here in April, the daughter of Lope de Vega went to the sidelines and hasn’t been seen in a race since. Now, off a six-month layoff, the Brendan Walsh trainee will need to put her best foot forward in order to have her picture taken in the Keeneland winner’s circle for the third time in three races locally. She’s a major threat, but another where price must be your guide.LUSH LIPS (2) and MANDANABA (3) are drawn just to the inside of Expensive Queen, and they both represent reasonable win candidates, too. Lush Lips has run just once since a victory at Gulfstream Park in February, but she’s already a grade one winner at Keeneland, having taken the Queen Elizabeth II Cup here last fall as a three-year-old. Her best races make her a serious threat to win this event.The same can be said for Mandanaba, who finished a solid second in a group two event in Germany as a precursor to a start on Saturday. Trained by Francis Graffard, the four-year-old filly will be making her second stateside start of 2026 following a decent second in the G1 Just a Game at Saratoga during Belmont Stakes weekend. All in all, I didn’t think the trip was too bad for Mandanaba that day; pocketed up throughout, perhaps hemmed in a bit at the top of the lane…but then Classic Q floated more than a path off the rail and Mandanaba simply couldn’t fire through. She’s a threat on her best, but her best is probably necessary.Speaking of CLASSIC Q (9) – she could be the speed-of-the-speed in the First Lady, a designation that is always dangerous. Her win in the Just a Game is clearly the best she’s ever run, and she’ll need a repeat performance if she’s going to take top honors in the First Lady on Saturday. She can win, but I chose to go with the horse who defeated her on the square when the two tangled at Kentucky Downs last month.BLESS THE BROKEN (10) has run on turf only once in her fifteen-race career, but that turf try resulted in a victory over Classic Q and others in the G2 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf on September 5. Sent off at 8-1 odds that day, the daughter of Laoban didn’t look especially strong around the bend but eventually found her best stride over the final quarter mile, kicking away from her contemporaries with relative ease. The flat mile at Keeneland is far from an apples-to-apples comparison, but I’m inclined to believe that her finish over the rise at Kentucky Downs will translate nicely to the turf in Lexington. I’m hopeful that Brian Hernandez, Jr. can have Bless the Broken in a tracking position down the backside before taking his shot at the pacemakers around the far turn.THE PICKS: 10-4-8-2THE PLAY: 10) BLESS THE BROKEN TO WIN AT ODDS OF 6-1 OR GREATER

Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.Our first 3 longshot plays opening day all ran second, so we’re dialed in. There simply aren’t the volume of longshots that stood out to me on the Saturday card, which is to be expected somewhat given the number of elite stakes races and field sizes. Here is the troika will try to get home.Race 1:#6 Noble Anthem (12-1 ML) – Slight cut-backs in trip do well at this class level and distance and this colt has been firing morning bullets over the track at Keeneland. Since going long at Indy, he returned quickly to the workout tab just 9 days after that last start (typically 14 days), indicating sharpness.Race 5:#5 Groveland (20-1 ML) – Pressed a wicked pace at Colonial last time and did better-than-it-looks to hold third. Colonial runners offered a flat-bet profit on all starters at last year’s Fall Meet. Street Sense offspring relish the Keeneland main track, so could enjoy the footing in his first local start.Race 6:#4 Nobals (15-1 ML) – Veteran 7-year-old is a past Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner (pictured) and seemed to get a little of that spark back late in his return try at Saratoga. Spa-prepped horses have won this stakes 3 of the last 4 years and this one’s pace versatility could play important against speedy Joe Sheisty and Doncho as to when to make a pouncing move.   Race 10:#8 Kupuna (15-1 ML) - Second start since a freshening and loved the Bernard Baruch win with a different running style than usually employed. Showed he's tied on and this prep path has been very successful in this race in past years. Favorites have won this stakes just once in the last 11 years (average winner 9-1 during that span), so why not fish even if the favorites look to be of quality?

Saturday is a massive day of stakes action across the land, including at Belmont Park where the newly renovated venue will play host to four Breeders’ Cup win and you are in events for juveniles. The Champagne and Frizette are the two Grade 1 events on the agenda, but look pretty chalky. Jeremy Plonk and I cover those two and six other graded stakes from across the country in this week’s 1/ST Call Podcast, but here are a trio of horses I like most on the card, including my thoughts in the other two Breeders’ Cup qualifiers.Race 3:My first play of the day comes in this state-bred MSW event for 2YOs at six-furlongs over the Inner Turf that appears wide-open. 7-2-ML favorite #7 Forecheck comes in off a runner-up effort at double-digit odds-on debut at the Spa for Linda Rice, but that was a blanket finish where this filly really did not stand out much at all despite a clean trip. She appears vulnerable as do the other runners with experience, so I will hope #3 Dream Spell is ready to fire big at first asking. The Three Diamonds Farm filly ships in from Turfway Park for trainer Mike Maker and has some intriguing pedigree being by Dialed In and out of a Smart Strike mare I remember from this circuit Strike Accord. The Chester and Mary Broman mare was not a world beater, but consistently fired in turf races between seven-furlongs and 1 1/16-miles. The fact Maker lures Flavien Prat is also worth noting. Hopefully, Dream Spell sets a favorable trip along the inside and comes with a strong run late.Play: #3 Dream Spell (8-1 ML)Picks: 3-6-4Race 7: Miss Grillo (G2)The second of six consecutive stakes races to conclude the Saturday slate is this 1 1/16-mile event for 2YO fillies over the sod awards the winner with a trip to the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and I like the chances of #4 Fiora. Trainer Phil Antonacci is not a household name, but generally means business when he enters his runners in races evidenced by his 25%-win rate in 2026 with 59 starters sent to the gate. Antonacci debuted Fiora in a 6.5-furlong affair at Belmont just a couple of weeks ago where she showed solid tactical speed early and plenty left after the wire in her half-length victory versus MSW foes. The fact he wheels this $625k FTS August ’25 purchase back tells me she came out of the race well and he is confident she will love the added ground. Hopefully, Ricardo Santana Jr. finds a prominent spot early and has plenty left late to make it a perfect 2 for 2 to start aboard the Into Mischief filly.Play: #4 Fiora (3-1 ML)Picks: 4-7-6Race 11: Pilgrim (G2)The finale not only awards a spot in the gate for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, but it also might be the best betting race on the afternoon in Elmont. The two-turn event for 3YOs is a fun one and will be that much more enjoyable if longshot #3 Kipros runs big in his third career start. The son of Oscar Performance is out of a solid female family and easily could get overlooked in this spot despite a pair of better than looks efforts to start his career. He shied in at the start on debut from his rail draw costing him several lengths and was clearly still learning out there, but showed a solid turn of foot late to finish fourth to the impressive High Official. In his subsequent start, Kipros shied in a bit again at the break, but it was nowhere close to as detrimental as it was on debut. From there, he relaxed well off the pace before putting in a big run late to catch a long shot speed horse that looked like he was going to get to the wire first. Trainer Ray Handal is 10 for 46 over the last 90 days with a $2.08 ROI and had a serious two-turn turf 2YO last year in Heeere’s Johnny and may have one again with Kipros.Play: #3 Kipros (15-1 ML)Picks: 3-2-10

EXTRA INCENTIVESBC Bankroll Builder | Bet $25, Get 5 | Alcibiades Stakes (Keeneland)10X 1/ST Rewards Points | Sunset 6 | Gulfstream/Santa AnitaSCHEDULE NOTESKeeneland | Fall Meet opening day | first post 1 pm ETSPECIAL WAGERSCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 8-9, Santa Anita Races 2-3-5Sunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 7-8-9, Santa Anita Races 7-8-9TOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | details$100 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $538,694 | Thistledown | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETSunset Pick 6 | $20,491 | Gulfstream/Santa Anita | begins GP Race 7 | 3:30 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $50,705 (CAN) | Woodbine | begins Race 7 | 4:21 pm ETKEY RACESBelmont | Race 2 | 1:43 pm ET | Bongard StakesBelmont | Race 3 | 2:16 pm ET | Gimma StakesKeeneland | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ET | Phoenix StakesKeeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET | Jessamine StakesBelmont | Race 8 | 5:05 pm ET | Artie Schiller StakesKeeneland | Race 9 | 5:16 pm ET | AlcibiadesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXDelaware Park | Race 5 | 2:52 pm ETKeeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ETBelmont Park | Race 9 | 5:38 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBrad Cox | Keeneland | all 6 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Belmont Park | jockey Jose Ortiz | 3 stakes winsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli: Sunset 6 Carryover Analysis for FridayJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Daily Longshots to WatchFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section

Hoosier Park has a 14-race card featuring Indiana 3-year-olds battling in Sires Stakes action. The Spot Plays are in Race 9, Race 11, and Race 13. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 9 (8:34 PM EDT)5-Shooting In Place (5-1)-Camera shy 5-year-olds is often in the mix but slow starts make the task more difficult. Could be overlooked, but there are a few in this field that should be out and rolling when the wings fold. Looking for a hot pace and counting on Jordon Ross to have in striking range at the top of the lane.5-7-1Race 11 (9:20 PM EDT)4-Door Dash (3-1)-Comes off a big effort at the Red Mile, left from post 10 and sizzled the back half in 54.1 to finish a good 2nd at 9-1. Ships in, comes back in 10 days and is able to go back on Lasix. That's a lot of positives, and has won 3 of 8 at Hoosier plus the Trent Stohler barn has been hot over the last 30 days. Not going to over think this one, with a smooth trip should be there at the wire and hopefully won't be bet too hard.4-2-1Race 13 (10:06 PM EDT)1-Miss Alexis (7/2)-Raced 1st over for about 3/8's of a mile in last and burned money as the race winner got through along the rail. Didn't live up to top billing and should be a much better price in this spot. Trace Tetrick returns and he didn't leave aggressively, and landed 5th around the opening turn. Tonight, this race should set up differently and will look for a bounce back effort from the word "Go".1-3-7Check me out on X!

Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to take advantage of the Breeders' Cup Bankroll promotion that begins with today's Race 9 Alcibiades Stakes. Earn a $5 bankroll deposit bonus in your account for Breeders' Cup weekend when you bet $25 or more on select races this month.Race 1:#1 Heartbeat (10-1 ML) – recent efforts haven’t inspired but will tip her chances from the start if she reverts to her past strong early speed; the Churchill alumni have dominated the starter allowances.Race 2:#3 Jus Too Fly (20-1 ML) – Belterra runners have done surprisingly well in claiming routes at this level in the Fall and gets a good, 2-turn draw with little speed inside of him.Race 3:#4 Master Queen (10-1 ML) – Turf was a disaster, but the Colonial maiden form holds up well against most of these and she’s worked fast over the track; sire Vekoma has had excellent local results with offspring.Race 4:#9 Parisinthespring (15-1 ML) – Cut-backs in distance aren’t typically strong in Kee 7F races like the clich� says they are, but at this elder maiden special weight level they have been; by top local dirt sire in recent meets City of Light.Race 5:#4 Should’ve (12-1 ML) – Drawn in a Keeneland turf sprint power post (3-4-5) for the track’s far-and-away leading turf-sprint trainer, Wesley Ward, and she’s a daughter of top Kee grass sire Not This Time.Race 6:noneRace 7:NoneRace 8:#12 Mightily (15-1 ML) – filly ran a dynamite second against the boys in stakes company at Colonial with a 99 BRIS late pace figure behind an odds-on, unbeaten winner; take back from this post and make one run.Race 9:NoneRace 10:#4 Lahainaluna (12-1 ML) – Joe Sharp aims for these longer Kee turf races and has secured multiple wins in Fall Meets with this type; the Kentucky Downs, long-winded preppers have had success at this class level and distance and this colt was a solid third over the course in April.

After a big Goodwood Day last Saturday, Santa Anita Park is back a week later with another big day of thoroughbred racing. This time there are four graded stakes races on the agenda headlined by the American Pharoah (G1) for the juveniles at two-turns.In addition to the stakes action on tap on Saturday, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet also have a promotion included on the afternoon involving the featured event, which is part of the return of our Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder. Check out the promotional landing page for details and a full list of races included over the next few weeks, but ultimately it is about betting $25+ on a given stakes event listed and getting a $5 bonus deposited into your account for each one on Friday October 30. The Alcibiades (G2) at Keeneland on Friday afternoon is the first opportunity with the American Pharoah to follow one day later. Here are a few horses I like on the day at the Great Race Place, including my play in the feature.Race 1:The card gets started with a MSW for 2YOs at one-mile over the grass where the morning line favorites appear vulnerable. Bob Baffert has won a lot of races at Santa Anita and often is a scary fade when he brings in the two ML favorites, but I am willing to take on both 2-1-top choice #5 Absolution in his first start over the lawn and the more experienced #2 Hoaxer. I tried to make strong cases for #1 Dream Seeker and #4 Bliksem as well, but their two-turn turf efforts are underwhelming and without an excuse. So instead, I will take a big swing with second-time starter #3 Schooner. The son of Justify debuted going five-furlongs over the Santa Anita main track on June 12 for trainer Dan Blacker and has been on the sidelines since. He clearly is bred to go a route of ground, so not going to take too much out of his well-beaten fourth-place effort at a distance far too short for this John O’Connor owned colt that has every right to move forward on the surface switch. In fact, Schooner’s dam was 2 for 9 on the grass and hit the board in 8 of those tries earning nearly $268k. He has a lot to prove after his debut, but the price should be right to gamble in what seems like a wide-open race to kick off the early Pick 5.Play: #3 Schooner (10-1 ML)Picks: 3-1-2Race 4:The pace should be honest at the very least in this state-bred first-level allowance event at six-furlongs over the Santa Anita sod. This should bode well for #4 Owl. The son of Sir Prancealot comes off a strong runner-up effort versus similar competition at Del Mar going five-furlongs on September 5. The effort was even better than it looks on paper since the rails were out on the turf that day and the Neil Drysdale trainee was caught three-wide on the backstretch. It was the first time Owl had competed with the blinkers off since his debut in May, as well as the first time Drysdale legged up veteran Joel Rosario. Both should benefit him once again in this spot. I like this 4YO gelding’s chances of getting to the wire first given the likely race shape in his third start of the form cycle.Play: #4 Owl (5-2 ML)Picks: 4-1-3Race 7: American Pharoah (G1)To no one’s surprise trainer Bob Baffert holds a very strong hand in this year’s American Pharoah. The Hall of Fame conditioner has won this event a record 13 times, including four years in a row from 2021-2024 before Intrepido pulled the upset last fall. The event originally called the Norfolk Stakes and renamed the FrontRunner in 2012 before taking on its current title drew a field of six with undefeated #2 Hughes listed as the 4-5-top choice. The $675k Keeneland September purchase has won all three starts for fun, including last out when he beat four rivals by nearly five lengths in the Del Mar Futurity (G1). He is unlikely to offer much value, but is tough to get past despite the horseplayer in me wishing otherwise. I will attempt to find value in other spots and rely on the chalk to get home in the Saturday feature.Play: #2 Hughes (4-5 ML)Picks: 2-4-5

The Sunset 6 wager that covers the last three races at Gulfstream and Santa Anita proved too difficult for bettors to solve last Saturday and Sunday. The good news is that the $1 wager will begin with a $20,491 pool and a mandatory payout this Friday, Oct. 2. Two turf races at each track are part of the sequence, so keep tabs on the weather at Gulfstream with a 60-percent chance of rain in the advance forecast.Gulfstream Park, Race 7 (3:30 p.m. EST)BERT’S KNOTY GIRL chased the pace-controlling favorite and ‘dug in’ to hold third after the sharp winner blew past them both in the Miss Gracie Stakes at this distance. She met 10 next-out winners – five in stakes company – with an average 77 Beyer since her maiden victory on a ‘good’ turf at one mile. DEL MAR SUNRISE was bottled up in traffic in the final quarter mile under the same conditions two starts back. She finished with good energy when free in late stretch while no match for odds-on favorite Striking Finale, who surpassed six figures in turf earnings with a follow-up allowance win.Gulfstream Park, Race 8 (4:04 p.m. EST)KING CAB is worth a price look in his first start for trainer Victor Barboza Jr., who won with two first-time starters and two others on the barn switch last weekend at Gulfstream. He is a two-time stakes winner and arrives for his first start as a 7-year-old off a series of fast workouts. But MISH, still going strong at age 9 with a 12-for-27 record at Gulfstream and $729k bankroll, draws favorably in a speed-laden field and is strictly the one to beat despite a photo-finish setback last out.Gulfstream Park, Race 9 (4:36 p.m. EST)HAPPY MEMORIES chased the winning favorite and a runner-up who followed with an impressive victory in a fast-paced debut, then he rallied at 6-1/2F but couldn’t reach the winning favorite in his second start. He figures tough if he handles his first turf assignment. JEAN LAFFITE returns to the turf after fading in a route race on the Tapeta track. He saved ground behind the dueling leaders on the turn in his debut and stayed on gamely to finish second to the 2-to-5 winner at 5F.Santa Anita Race 7 (7:05 p.m. EST)CANTO DELLA TERRA has two photo-finish sprint victories and a second in non-graded stakes at 1-1/16 miles since her U.S. arrival. Trainer Phil D’Amato has sent out 88 turf winners at Santa Anita since 2025. RAW ABILITY raced evenly through the stretch as the beaten 2-to-5 favorite at this distance, but she should get a much livelier pace to rally into in today’s six-horse field.Santa Anita Race 8 (7:37 p.m. EST)We are going 7-deep in this field of unproven long sprinters for California sired 3-year-old fillies in hopes that the Sunset 6 ticket is still alive.Santa Anita Race 9 (8:07 p.m. EST)ROYAL PEARL, a $425,000 sales buy, gave way chasing next-out Del Mar Debutante winner Miss Monica in her debut, then she raced 4-wide on the turn and lacked stretch kick against another runaway Bob Baffert-trained winning favorite at 6F. But she could awaken on the surface switch and stretch out in distance. Her sire, Mandaloun, was a multiple graded stakes-winning dirt router whose offspring are 3-10 in turf routes; her dam, Candy Sioux, is a half sister to hard-hitting turf allowance sprinter All I Want Is You (4-17, $274k on turf). Trainer Michael McCarthy is 13/3-2-1 since August 2025 with sprint-to-route grass runners.Suggested Sunset 6GP 7th Race: 1, 4GP 8th race: 1, 7GP 9th Race: 3, 6SA 7th Race: 2, 5SA 8th Race: 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 9, 10SA 9th Race: 4Cost for a $1 Ticket: $112