It’s had its share of different names over the past decade, but one thing has remained constant – the G1 Goodwood at Santa Anita has functioned as Southern California’s key prep for the Breeders’ Cup Classic. This year’s race offers some added intrigue, as four of the nine entrants are east coast based. Sprinkle in a three-year-old taking on elders and the typically strong Baffert contingent and you have the recipe for an interesting race on Saturday.Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the runners scheduled to compete in the G1 Goodwood as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.1 – Taif / 4% / 24-12 – Vodka Vodka / 4% / 24-13 – McAfee / 10% / 9-14 – Original Sin / 10% / 9-15 – Midnight Mammoth / 2% / 49-16 – Mr. A. P. / 7% / 13-17 – Forged Steel / 10% / 9-18 – Caldera / 25% / 3-19 – Nevada Beach / 28% / 5-2The assessment of this year’s Goodwood begins with the winner of last year’s Goodwood, NEVADA BEACH (9). The clear ‘A’ player for trainer Bob Baffert in this spot Saturday, the son of Omaha Beach pulled off an 8-to-1 upset last year, earning a 101 Beyer Speed Figure in the process. A 101 Beyer in this race likely gets him back to the winner’s circle and would thrust him into the Breeders’ Cup Classic discussion, albeit as a fringe contender.Nevada Beach is far from a cinch here, though. Not only has he yet to win a race where more than six horses have started, but Nevada Beach is also making his first start since a disastrous trip to Saudi Arabia when finishing twelfth in the G1 Saudi Cup. The layoff itself doesn’t give me pause given his conditioner – it’s the steady diet of drills he’s had without a race that make me curious.This horse has been working steadily since June 13…yet hasn’t made a start? Perhaps this has been the plan all along, but to willingly bypass both the San Diego and the Pacific Classic over the summer at Del Mar makes me skeptical enough to take a shot against him at a short price.I’m sure there’s going to be a large contingent drawn to MCAFEE (3) for trainer George Weaver off his six-plus length victory going nine-furlongs at Saratoga, but I’m not convinced this colt is of the grade one variety – and especially so at this distance. Yes, McAfee’s older sister Thorpedo Anna excelled in races at a mile-and-an-eighth, but this colt has lost ground in the final furlong in all but one of his two-turn races: the gate-to-wire victory at Saratoga on July 3. The field of allowance runners he defeated in early July leave quite a bit to be desired and I’m not sure McAfee will offer a large enough price to entice me to take a chance.Both ORIGINAL SIN (4) and FORGED STEEL (7) were humbled by Knightsbridge in the G1 Pacific Classic last month, but there are no horses of Knightsbridge’s ability running here on Saturday. Forged Steel’s win in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita was solid enough to give him a chance against this bunch, but I don’t believe the pace scenario will be an advantageous one for him. As for Original Sin – he’s not a particularly good gate horse, and unless the pace completely comes apart down the stretch, I’m inclined to view him as nothing more than an underneath key in exotics.MR. A. P. (6) will certainly have his backers, but that will largely be due to a runner-up effort in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile behind Champion Ted Noffey. His three turf tries this season have left me cold, and the move back to the main track feels as much like trying to find something with him as it is a vote of confidence by throwing him into the deep end of the pool.Ultimately, I’m going land on CALDERA (8) for Saffie Joseph, Jr. Once under the tutelage of the late D. Wayne Lukas, Caldera missed more than a year of racing prior to making his debut for Saffie in South Florida back in April. A son of Liam’s Map, the My Racehorse owned colt has ripped off three-consecutive victories, all of which have come by more than a couple of lengths in the end. The distance of the Goodwood may be of slight concern, but his pedigree would suggest it shouldn’t be an issue and the way he’s finished his one-turn miles leads me to believe he can handle the nine furlongs. I would expect jockey Paco Lopez to allow a few of the speed to clear and then take up a stalking trip by the time the field hits the backstretch, biding his time before taking a shot around the far turn.THE PICKS: 8-9-4-7THE PLAY: 8) CALDERA TO WIN AT ODDS OF 3-1 OR GREATER

SCHEDULE NOTESSanta Anita | opening day of meet | first post 4:00 pm ETSPECIAL WAGERSPlace Pick 8 | Santa Anita | makes its debut todayCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 8-9, Santa Anita Races 3-4-6Sunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 7-8-9, Santa Anita Races 6-7-8Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager Pool 2 | opens noon ET through Sunday 6 pm ETTOURNAMENT TIME$500 Santa Anita Autumn Showcase Qualifier | details$100 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSSuper Hi 5 | $4,092 | Churchill Downs | Race 4 | 2:13 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $162,013 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 5 | 2:45 pm ETPick 6 | $29,289 | Belmont | begins Race 4 | 2:57 pm ETKEY RACESBelmont | Race 2 | 1:47 pm ET | Beldame StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXDelaware Park | Race 5 | 2:35 pm ETLaurel Park | Race 9 | 3:57 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 10 | 5:25 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJamie Ness | Laurel | all 5 entrants 9-2 or less odds (4 at 3-1 or less)DID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Churchill Downs | favorites went 0-8 on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli: Santa Anita Opening Day Turf Pick 3Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Hoosier Park starts the weekend with one of the most loaded cards of the year. The Spot Plays are in Race 7, Race 8, and Race 12. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 7 (7:48 PM EDT)4-City Of Light (6-1)-Taking a swing with a freshman who has raced on larger ovals and has good gate speed. Will look for a Scott Zeron special, an efficient ground saving trip and then to roll by down the lane. The odds-on program chalk comes off a lifetime best 153.1 sizzling win at ScD. Gets Dexter Dunn and post 1 but has never raced on a larger oval. Will lean toward a better price and one with big track experience. The Takter trainee is a threat considering her efforts at Wbsb and M1. Should be a main player if takes to the oval and could end up with a pocket ride.4-1-5Race 8 (8:11 PM EDT)3-Sweet Luvin Lou (5/2)-The Sweet Lou 3-year-old has only raced 3 times since 8-8 and the Mohawk invader makes its Hoosier debut. Finished 2nd to a world record performance by Redland Rocket Man in the Simcoe at Wbsb. Does have very good speed but isn't the handiest horse and sometimes early speed is lacking. But last time left in 26.3 to land 3rd and closed in a quick 25.4. Scott Zeron could get a pocket ride behind Dexter Dunn on #2 Dancing Dreamer the program chalk. If that trip happens it could be picture time.3-2-5Race 12 (9:43 PM EDT)2-French Wine (5-1)-The Nancy Takter 3-year-old makes its 2026 HoP debut and does good work on this oval (6-1-2-2). This is a classy 6-year-old who came 2nd to Super Chapter, who no one was beating in the Maple Leaf Trot. Driver Jason Bartlett will be out and rolling with this post draw and comes off 2 sharp efforts after taking a 20-day break. Will look for a top of the stack trip and could be up to the On To Norway challenge. Hopefully, the morning line price will hold up.2-3-5Check me out on X!

Santa Anita’s opening weekend of the autumn meet signals a significant round of Breeders’ Cup preps and the national schedule overflows with top-class races. What better time to hop aboard the stakes express? This Saturday’s whistle stops include the Great Race Place, the rebuilt Belmont Park, historic Churchill Downs. sunny Gulfstream and Mid-Atlantic neighbors Laurel and Delaware Park.Players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can benefit from a $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on Saturday for Santa Anita’s card.All aboard! (Listed in post time order)1:50 pm ET | Belmont | Race 4 | Gallant Bloom Stakes | Picks 6-2-5While favorite #5 R Disaster looks loose on the lead, she’s had just 1 race since spring and no works since a bad effort at the Spa, so I’ll try #6 Beauty Reigns, who has trained with intent since the Ballerina.2:23 pm ET | Laurel | Race 6 | All Along Stakes | Picks 8-5-1When the best horse on paper also gets the proper pace set-up, they rarely give back such an edge as classy #8 Grayosh should deliver for Chad Brown.3:22 pm ET | Laurel | Race 8 | Selima Stakes | Picks 5-4-9Rallying debut sprint winner #5 Maybe Gold got a solid 83 BRIS late pace figure for a fast dash that could translate well with her pedigree as she makes the 2-turn stretchout.3:26 pm ET | Delaware | Race 6 | Battery Park Stakes | Picks 4-5-2Defending champ #4 Cooke Creek is 3-for-3 in DelPark raids for a Mike Maker barn that reads the national stakes condition books with about as much success as anyone in picking spots that fit his horses.3:51 pm ET | Laurel | Race 9 | Laurel Futurity | Picks 5-2-6#5 Broadcast likely an underlay price by Miguel Clement’s regally bred son of Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf winner Shared Account (who opened her career 2-for-2 at Laurel over this course) ran well enough in her debut with no pace help to like in this spot.4:02 pm ET | Delaware | Race 7 | Rocky Run Stakes | Picks 4-1-8Excited to see Further Ado’s half-brother by Justify – #4 Earth Song – an eye-popping Monmouth debut winner, stretch out here and just maybe become a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile sneaky play for Keeneland.4:17 pm ET | Gulfstream Park | Race 8 | Hollywood Beach Stakes | Picks 5-7-6#5 Road to Midnight was superb in his only turf try and draw a line through his last on dirt when hooking a multiple stakes-winning freak named Sum of Success.4:26 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 8 | Bourbon Flight Stakes | Picks 6-1-5Stronger-than-expected 102 BRIS late pace figures in back-to-back sprints for #6 Local Knowledge make him interesting here on the stretch-out after facing a superstar at the Spa.4:34 pm ET | Delaware | Race 8 | White Clay Creek Stakes | Picks 1-3-9-4Late-running maiden #1 Spectacular Sam could benefit from both blinkers on and the rail draw/saving ground after being her own worst enemy through 3 starts as Spinaway class droppers likely take a good deal of the money.4:44 pm ET | Belmont | Race 9 | Vosburgh Stakes | Picks 8-3-7Big field of 10 and no standouts left in the elder Sprint division makes for a great betting race in which #8 Contrary Thinking is the ‘now’ horse with speed who has found a home since cutting back distance.4:58 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 9 | Ack Ack Stakes | Picks 2-3-8#2 Arrowthegreat – who gets a great pace set-up to punch late – beat an absolute, stakes-caliber field in allowance company at Del Mar last time so don’t see this as the rise in class it may look on paper.5:06 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 3 | City of Hope Mile | Picks 4-2-6#4 Detain was seriously hindered by a very slow second-quarter in the Del Mar Mile but still came with a heated run late and should blow by them Saturday with what looks to be more pace help.5:19 pm ET | Belmont | Race 10 | Jose Hirsch Turf Classic | Picks 3-4-2Love classy Euros picking up American-experienced jockeys (Flavien Prat rides here vs. 2 Chad Browns) and we saw #3 El Cordobes win domestically last summer in his ‘first off the plane’ effort.5:29 pm ET | Churchill Downs | Race 10 | Lukas Classic | Picks 4-3-7His record isn’t as strong at Churchill as other venues, but #4 Banishing opted here over the Jockey Club Gold Cup last week and his best is very, very good when he’s on and a few of these could struggle with the 9F trip.5:45 pm ET | Delaware Park | Race 10 | Delaware Handicap | Picks 6-5-4Dominant defending champ #4 Regaled isn’t forecasted to get her preferred wet track, opening the door for last year’s Delaware Oaks runner-up #6 Margie’s Intention to continue a strong history in this race for trainer Brad Cox.5:54 pm ET | Belmont | Race 11 | Flower Bowl Stakes | Picks 4-8-11With options shorter in distance upcoming at Keeneland, Chad Brown must love the 1-1/4 miles for #4 Kathynmarissa while she’s in career-best form and she faces a field where 9 of 11 exit defeats (several emphatically).6:10 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 5 | Eddie D Stakes | Picks 1-3-7Don’t let the 1-for-9 record at this turf trip fool you – #1 Sumter has run 4 dynamite races in a row on the downhill turf at Santa Anita and offers an inflated price after a dull Del Mar try.7:10 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 7 | John Henry Turf Championship | Picks 1-7-8#1 Mondego moved too soon in the Del Mar Handicap and gets a rider change while returning to the Santa Anita lawn where he won the Whittingham and San Marcos in his last 2 trips over this distance and course.7:40 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 8 | Goodwood Stakes | Picks 4-8-9Defending champ #9 Nevada Beach comes off a February layoff and his workout videos aren’t overwhelming to me, so give me late-running #4 Original Sin (pictured) in a race with plenty of set-up speed and a confident Brendan Walsh who scratches from Churchill’s Lukas Classic to seek this Grade 1.8:10 pm ET | Santa Anita | Race 9 | John C. Harris Stakes | Picks 10-3-4They’ll have to catch #10 Little Opal off 2 sharp dash scores at Del Mar as the outside draw is advantageous down the hill.

It is about time for Opening Day of the Autumn Meet at beautiful Santa Anita Park. The short meet runs until November 1 before racing returns to Del Mar for their Bing Crosby meeting. The stand will feature a total of 26 stakes races, including seven automatic qualifiers for this year’s Breeders’ Cup World Championships. As one would expect, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are celebrating the start of the meet in style with the return of our ever-popular Exacta-Thon promotion. This time, the minimum goal for the day is four $2 exactas. If you connect on at least that many, you will earn an equal split of $7500 with all other customers that do so. The last $2500 goes to the customer(s) that can hit as many over the ten-race slate. Here are exactas in three of the stakes races that I will include in my attempt to take down at least four $2 exactas.Race 5: Eddie D (G2)My first exacta play comes in this Grade 2 turf sprint for 3YOs down the Hillside Turf Course named for my all-time favorite jockey. The 6.5-furlong affair that kicks off the traditional $2 Pick 6 appears to have an overall lack of early speed. This should give a pace advantage to #9 Virat. The son of Bayern makes his third start of the form cycle for trainer Dan Blacker after a pair of runs over the five-furlong configuration at Del Mar. He ran respectively in those races earning a victory in a second-level allowance event before a speed and fade to third last month in the Green Flash (G2) to #6 Sorrento Sky. Blacker legs up Paco Lopez this time with a runner that is 4 for 14 over the Santa Anita sod, draws perfectly for this course to the far outside, and offers fair value at his 8-1-ML offering. He is my key horse in exactas.Plays: Exacta Wheel 9 with 1+3+6 and Exacta Box 3+9Picks: 9-3-6Race 8: Goodwood (G1)The featured event has changed names a few times recently, but has been the same nine-furlong Grade 1 test over the main track throughout. This year’s edition appears likely to have an honest early tempo given the presence of #1 Taif, #5 Midnight Mammoth, #7 Forged Steel, and #8 Caldera. I am hopeful they go at it early, setting things up for #4 Original Sin. The Calumet Farm homebred stays in Southern California after coming from last place to finish a well-beaten second to dominant winner Knightsbridge in the Pacific Classic (G1). The Curlin colt has shown a strong turn of foot throughout his ten-race career and proved versatile three starts back with his win in the Blame (G3). He will not be a huge price, but a square one making for a solid key horse in the Exacta-Thon. I will box him with the aforementioned Forged Steel since he might be the best speed and play him on top of 7-5 ML favorite #9 Nevada Beach. Last year’s winner could be tough to beat in here, but has not raced since his disappointing twelfth-place finish in the Saudi Cup (G1). His best makes him tough, but it is difficult to swallow that short price off this sort of break.Plays: Exacta Box 4+7, Exacta 4-9Picks: 4-9-7Race 9: John C. Harris (G3)The final stakes race on Goodwood Day is this $100k event down the hill for 3YO fillies. 3-2-ML favorite #10 Little Opal was a machine on the front end this summer at Del Mar cruising home to a pair of gate-to-wire wins to start her career. The appeal is obvious and the draw is tasty, but swallowing a short price based on efforts over a totally different type of surface down south just does not make a lot of sense. With that in mind, I will take a big swing on top with California-bred #9 Run With Liberty. Trainer Jeff Mullins debuted this one at one mile on the grass and has never cut him back to a shorter distance until this spot where his filly also draws favorably to the outside. She has shown tactical speed in two-turn races, which often times plays well on the turnback to the 6.5-furlong downhill course. Both of her wins came over this surface this spring and she will be a big price. I will also use #1 Mo’ Em Down. I am not love with the rail draw, but jockey Juan Hernandez knows how to ride this course well enough to hopefully overcome any potential traffic issues. #8 Day to Day is another cutback that could take a liking to this unique configuration. She ships in from Virginia for Saffie Joseph Jr. and has the tactical speed to avoid leaving herself with too much to do late. Hopefully, I can get two of these three into the number and make some coin with my final play of the day.Plays: Exacta Box 1+8+9, Exacta 9 with 1+3+4+6+8Picks: 9-1-8

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Charles Town | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $467,476 | Thistledown | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $74,179 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 3 | 6:00 pm ETKEY RACESThistledown | Race 7 | 3:50 pm ET | Catlaunch StakesDelaware County Fair | Race 15 | 4:55 pm ET | Little Brown Jug Elimination 1 | PreviewDelaware County Fair | Race 16 | 5:25 pm ET | Little Brown Jug Elimination 2 | PreviewDelaware County Fair | Race 19 | 6:42 pm ET | Little Brown Jug FinalLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXWoodbine | Race 4 | 4:51 pm ETBelmont | Race 8 | 5:15 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 8 | 8:26 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Farrior | Charles Town | all 5 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Thistledown | favorites won 1 of 8 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMAl Cimaglia: Little Brown Jug Day Spot PlaysJeremy Plonk: Charles Town Bet $100, Get $10 Promo PicksFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Al Cimaglia's best bets Thursday at the Delaware County Fair for Little Brown Jug Day free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. Little Brown Jug Eliminations Previews free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. Photo: Little Brown Jug contender MELILLO, courtesy LittleBrownJug.com / Diane Wise Photo.

The Lead:Opening weekend of the Santa Anita autumn meet is loaded with Breeders' Cup prep intrigue. Saturday's card includes 5 stakes with top turf sprinters clashing mid-card in the Eddie D, named for Hall of Fame jockey Eddie Delahoussaye, who had a penchant for frantic finishes. Expect this one to live up to the namesake firing down the hillside turf course.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of a $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion for Santa Anita on Saturday.​​Field Depth:Grade 2 winners FIRST PEACE and SORRENTO SKY have won at the level. SUMTER and FREEDOM'S NOT FREE are Grade 3 winners and Grade 2-placed. Several of these runners are evenly matched in terms of schedule strength overall.​Pace:LATER THAN PLANNED adds blinkers and should be part of the early mix that includes VIRAT from the outside. For a downhill turf sprint, the pace isn't dizzying.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-SUMTER: Last 4 downhill turf sprints have netted a stakes win and 3 stakes runner-ups, despite a seemingly ugly 9: 1-3-1 overall mark at the trip. Struggles to win big races back-to-back, which may excuse his last, flat effort at Del Mar and put him squarely on the radar off a bullet workout on the training track for this. Jockey Mike Smith won this race in 2016, 2023 and 2024 and a fourth win would tie Kent Desormeaux's race record. The '23 score came for trainer Richard Mandella with Lane Way.2-LATER THAN PLANNED: The last 3-year-old to win the Eddie D was Home Run Kitten in 2014, 1 of 3 occasions in the past 30 years. No match for several of these in a similar spot in June's Daytona and will add blinkers in hopes of a perk-up while ambitiously placed to this eye. Trainer Phil D'Amato won this race in 2019 (Pee Wee Reese).3-FREEDOM'S NOT FREE: The Mark Glatt barn goes for a third Eddie D win in the last 5 years, winning in 2022 and 2024. Rallying, nose winner of the Daytona here in June rematches with several of those rivals. While not necessarily a downhill turf sprint specialist, his 5: 4-0-1 ledger on the SA lawn stands out and note that sharpened 4-year-olds have the Eddie D 3 of the last 4 years. Juan Hernandez won this race aboard Big Runneur in 2020. Huge threat late.4-AMORITA: Western Approach in 1993 remains the only filly to win the Eddie D. She's winless in 4 downhill turf sprints but has a couple of stakes runner-ups to show for it. Not sure why they opted for a dirt route at Del Mar last out and now comes back 3 weeks later against the boys in another curious spot. Not for me.5-NESSO'S LASTHARRAH: 19-1 allowance upsetter on dirt at Del Mar last out did win a downhill turf sprint at Santa Anita in the sprint vs. lesser. No-threat fifth here in the Eddie D last fall and has been sixth, 10th and 11th in her 3 stakes bids since then. Not for me.6-SORRENTO SKY: Tabbed him as a nice 7-1 winner in the Green Flash at Del Mar as he snapped a 10-race losing streak that witnessed several narrow losses. Really liked the way he finished up in his allowance prep to the Green Flash and he continued that fine closing form. Third in this race last year and a return to the ticket Saturday won't be a surprise. Be price sensitive; last time's good play at 7-1 should be close to those odds again to back in this race.7-PURE MADNESS: Trainer Brian Koriner campaigned star turf sprinter California Flag to 3 victories in the Eddie D (2008, 2009, 2011). Pure Madness has been equally competent on turf and dirt, short and long, witnessed by a 7: 4-3-0 record that leaves little to criticize. This will be the lightly raced 5-year-old's first matchup in an open stakes and first time against many of these familiar turf sprint stakes rivals. Won't be surprised if he's in the mix from the start and sticking around to the wire. Jockey Armando Ayuso won this race a year ago aboard Reef Runner.8-FIRST PEACE: Veteran Eddie D performer won this race in 2024 and was a flat seventh as the favorite last year in his title defense. The 6-year-old has lost all 3 starts this season and loses longtime pilot Mike Smith on Saturday to Sumter. Fear not on the pilot, though, as Joel Rosario takes the mount after a strong Del Mar summer and long history of turf sprint success. Note his last 2 losses at Del Mar were around 2 turns. On his best, First Peace rates as one of the best downhill turf sprinters active and, as noted, Mark Glatt has won this 2 of the last 4 years. The last 2 times this horse went route-to-sprint, he won the 2024 Eddie D and finished a close second in the 2024 Siren Lure over the same trip. Fair to question if he's the same horses as 2024, but Glatt is going to a successful form cycle repeat to find out. Mixed vibes.9-VIRAT: Lightning early in the Green Flash at Del Mar before setting for third at 11-1 odds. He's cross-entered in the Great West Turf Sprint at Remington Park on Sunday's Oklahoma Derby Day card. While just 1 win in his last 8 starts, his recent form has been on the uptick. Jockey Paco Lopez picking up the mount is significant as he's arguably the best turf sprint rider in America (certainly a top-3 discussion with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Joel Rosario).Most Likely Exotics Contender:SUMTER has been dialed in at this trip and signalled his readiness with a big work Sunday.Best Longshot Contender:Outside posts are an edge down the hill and the lack of early pace in here could give VIRAT every chance to take them as far as he can and hold for a piece of the exotics at a double-digit price.​​Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$50 win SUMTER. $10 exacta key-box SUMTER with FREEDOM'S NOT FREE and PURE MADNESS ($40). $10 exacta SUMTER over VIRAT.