EXTRA INCENTIVES$10,000 Turkey Bowl | Churchill Race 11; Del Mar Races 3,7,81 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Woodbine | Late Pick 4 todayTOURNAMENT TIME$300 Del Mar Challenge | details$100 Gulfstream Feeder | details$100 Aqueduct Feeder | details$40 Del Mar Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | $79,410 | Aqueduct | begins Race 4 | 1:40 pm ETPick 5 | $329,773 | Del Mar | begins Race 1 | 3:30 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $451,889 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 7 | 3:55 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $214,854 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 10 | 5:42 pm ETKENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERPool 2 | closes today 6 pm ETKEY RACESDel Mar | Race 3 | 1:32 pm ET | DeMille StakesDel Mar | Race 5 | 2:32 pm ET | Stormy Liberal StakesDel Mar | Race 7 | 3:32 pm ET | Matriarch StakesDel Mar | Race 8 | 4:02 pm ET | Bayakoa StakesChurchill Downs | Race 11 | 5:54 pm ET | Cherokee Mile StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXLaurel | Race 6 | 2:23 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 5 | 2:55 pm ETDel Mar | Race 1 | 3:30 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBob Baffert | Del Mar, Churchill | 5 of 6 entries 3-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Churchill Downs | jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. | 5 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds from 10 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Spot Plays for SundayBrian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Northfield Park has a 15-race card to begin the week. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus.Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)5-Rising Fire (8/5)-Missed a start before the last race and finished 3rd in a no-move mile. That was with Aaron Merriman steering, and now team Noble reunites. That seems to be the reason for the 8/5 morning line and will expect a big try.8-Marced Fox (20-1)The Alvarez trainee needs a sharp steer by Luke Hanners and if so, can be in the mix at the wire. Could leave and get a decent seat and then look to find a live cover flow. Should be a big # and this race could set up for a stalker.Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)6-Don't Take My Keys (20-1)-Beat this kind from this same post 3 back. Chris Lems left and landed in the pocket and took over down the lane. Has the gate speed to get that trip again in a race where the main threat starts from the 9-hole.7-Digruntled Carl (6-1)-Wired this kind from post 6 last time and like the one above should be looking to land on the point again. Has taken 10 pictures in 30 starts this year and has won 30% of its races at Nfld (51-17-5-5) and should be a player.9-Rose Run Zoom (5/2)-The Kreiser trainee is seemingly always in the mix with this kind and Merriman will need a plan to be in play from the 2nd tier. Noble is on the rail horse and that could be Merriman's ticket to land near the top of the stack.Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)2-Santastic Cruiser (5-1)-Was hung out to dry shortly after the wings folded and hung in there to cash a 4th place check. Faced better on a sloppy track from this post and lost by a neck. If Hanners gets a top of the stack trip it could be picture time.9-Okinawa Beach A (5/2)-Missed a start and was off 19 days before the last race and faced Open company. The team Noble trainee was hung the mile. Beaten 8/5 chalk makes the 2nd start in the Noble barn and takes a meaningful drop in class. Cashed checks versus $20K claimers at Yonkers and may have met a beatable field tonight.Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)2-Bean Town Girl (8-1)-Does its best work leaving from an inside post and racing near the top of the stack. Will use the camera shy 3-year-old who could get a suck around trip just in case the morning line choice doesn't play its part.3-Lily Grace Hill (9/5)-Noble has driven for the Deyermand barn 6 times and has taken 2 pictures. The filly has trouble finishing off the mile. But now gets a ++ driver change and Noble is very good at controlling the mile and stealing a quarter.$1 Late Pick 45,8/6,7,9/2,9/2,3Total Bet=$24Check me out on Twitter!

It is Closing Day at Churchill Downs, which means big fields, one final stakes race included in the $10,000 Turkey Bowl, and mandatory payouts across the board. This includes a carryover of $451,889 in their Derby City 6. Here are a few horses I am leaning on this afternoon to hopefully make the final racing day of the year in Louisville a profitable one.Race 9:This 9-furlong affair over the grass drew a full field, but #4 Out of Deductions looks like a bit of a stand out. The son of Nyquist has been freshened up by trainer Chris Block after a third-place effort against stakes foes at Hawthorne on September 28. He put in a strong late run, but the top two finishers, including the winner Emmanuel, got the jump. Block generally means business when he sends his runners to Churchill Downs evidenced by his $2.14 ROI over a 42-race sample the last 5 years. This gelding has run well in his two recent efforts over this grass course and should be ready for his best off the two-month break. Brian Hernandez Jr. is back aboard the Team Block runner, who makes for a potential single in the late horizontals.Play: #4 Out of Deductions (3-1 ML)Race 10:This third-level allowance at 7-furlongs over the main track appears relatively wide-open. #3 Tap Into This is a deserving morning line favorite coming in off three consecutive wins for Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, but has no early speed making him tough to fully trust over this racetrack. I think his stable mate is in with a shot as well. #2 Dimatic has not raced since early May at Oaklawn Park where he finished a well-beaten third in a non-graded $200k stakes to Saudi Crown and Mystik Dan. The Gun Runner colt faced some quality competition as a 3YO and easily could have gone directly to Oaklawn Park from Ellis where he has been training, but interestingly North America’s all-time leading trainer opts to ship him to Louisville off a 7-month break for closing day. Dimatic lacked early speed from the gate in his final few starts before the break, but I am hopeful he flashes enough off the layoff to get into him the race early on from his inside draw. I would not leave him out of your late horizontals at his price on the cutback.Play: #2 Dimatic (12-1 ML)Race 11: Cherokee MileThis one-mile event over the main track offers horseplayers one of the last chances to get to ten $10 winners in the $10,000 Turkey Bowl contest. It also happens to be a fantastic betting race with plenty of ways to go. I landed on #2 Implementation. Trainer Mike Maker and the connections thought enough of this son of Constitution to claim him for $100k at Keeneland two-back. Maker wheeled him back quickly after the claim where he ran a good second off less than three weeks rest over an off track. Now, Maker adds the blinkers and attracts Tyler Gaffalione, which should have him in a prominent spot early going the one-turn mile. Assuming he can avoid traffic issues from the rail, as well as a contentious early pace, he should certainly outrun his double-digit odds.Play: #2 Implementation (10-1 ML)

EXTRA INCENTIVES$10,000 Turkey Bowl | stakes from GP, CD, Dmr, FG, Lrl today$10 Money-Back Special | Gulfstream Races 5 & 10 today1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Laurel | Late Pick 4 todayBet $50, Get $10 | Tokyo | Japan Cup Day cardTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Gulfstream Feeder | details$100 Aqueduct Feeder | details$40 Del Mar Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | $20,630 | Aqueduct | begins Race 5 | 1:40 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $184,136 | Gulfstream | begins Race 6 | 2:44 pm ETPick 6 | $31,524 | Fair Grounds | begins Race 4 | 3:15 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $422,348 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 7 | 3:55 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $204,226 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 11 | 6:16 pm ETPick 5 | $52,110 | Charles Town | begins Race 4 | 8:32 pm ET--Churchill has a mandatory pick 6 payout Sunday--Del Mar has a mandatory pick 6 payout SundayKENTUCKY DERBY FUTURE WAGERPool 2 | closes Sunday 6 pm ETKEY RACESGulfstream | Race 5 | 2:15 pm ET | FSS My Dear Girl StakesChurchill Downs | Race 4 | 2:24 pm ET | Ed Brown StakesLaurel | Race 7 | 3:02 pm ET | Safely Kept StakesLaurel | Race 8 | 3:33 pm ET | City of Laurel StakesChurchill Downs | Race 8 | 4:25 pm ET | Fern Creek StakesDel Mar | Race 5 | 4:32 pm ET | Seabiscuit StakesWoodbine | Race 8 | 4:38 pm ET | Princess Elizabeth StakesGulfstream | Race 10 | 4:47 pm ET | FSS In Reality StakesFair Grounds | Race 8 | 5:15 pm ET | Pan Zareta StakesChurchill Downs | Race 10 | 5:25 pm ET | Kentucky Jockey Club StakesDel Mar | Race 7 | 5:32 pm ET | Jimmy Durante StakesWoodbine | Race 10 | 5:44 pm ET | Coronation Futurity StakesChurchill Downs | Race 11 | 5:54 pm ET | Golden Rod StakesDel Mar | Race 9 | 6:32 pm ET | Hollywood DerbyTokyo | Race 12 | 1:40 am ET | Japan CupLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXLaurel | Race 8 | 3:33 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 9 | 4:55 pm ETDelta Downs | Race 9 | 9:28 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Farrior | Laurel, Charles Town | 9 of 10 entries 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Churchill Downs | favorites won 9 of 12 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Gulfstream Mandatory Payout Pick 6 Analysis for SaturdayScott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Spot Plays for SaturdayJeremy Plonk: Race of the Week – Gulfstream’s FSS In RealityFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

This is closing night at Hoosier Park so all pools will be paid out on the 15-race card. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 has a $4,383 carryover, that leads to a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout. It starts in race 6, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 6 (7:25 PM EDT)1-TL Thunder Bolt (7-1)-The Erv Miller entry faces better but the entire field steps up and the 3-year-old will need to beat some older foes. Fits with this crew and Atlee Bender should be racing with the leaders throughout.3-Aye Aye Capt Russ (5-1)-This is another 3-year-old that shouldn't blush at the competition. Rolled home in 54.2 to cash a 2nd place check on a sloppy track in last. Kevin Lambright has options with this post draw and could be there at the wire with a smooth trip.5-Howard Hughes N (3/2)-The morning line chalk has won 7 of 28 this year and could get a good trip with this post draw. Should be racing at the top of the stack and if let alone should take a picture, but not sure he will get that trip.Race 7 (7:48 PM EDT)1-Rosarito Beach N (4-1)-Raced evenly after dropping in 4th after leaving from post 8. One-move type probably needs to be in front around the last turn or close to the leader to take a picture. Has a good chance to get that journey with this post draw.5-Covert (6-1)-Comes off what appeared to be a dull effort but being paced compromised with 59.1 opening half was an issue. Starts from a choice post and should relish the company. Can finish off the mile and could get a close up seat off the gate.Race 8 (8:11 PM EDT)4-Alwaystellthetruth (9/2)-Had been idle since mid-August and raced well coming off the bench to cash a 2nd place check. Should be a main player and will look for an even better performance after a needed start.6-Henry The Horse (5/2)-Has been up and down the condition ladder and recent form is good. Kyle Wilfong should be out and rolling and the beaten chalk could make amends. Meets a new group tonight and that could making a winning difference.Race 9 (8:34 PM EDT)4-At Any Cost (7-1)-The Trent Stohler pupil ships in from Mea and does good work at HoP (14-3-1-3). Faces some older foes but the price is right to take a swing. Will look for an aggressive steer and with the right trip should be in the hunt at wire.8-Bro Hug (9-1)-Will close it out with a 4-year-old who is 0-8 at HoP. Will use and fade the program chalk #7 who is even money in the program. The Bob Johnson trainee showed some life in last with a 56.2 back half and will look to close the season out with a big price.$1 Early Pick 41,3,5/1,5/4,6/4,8Total Bet=$24Check me out on Twitter!

It is the first Saturday of Gulfstream Park's Championship Meet, which in 2025 also means a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6. With a carryover of over $184k built up over the past couple of weeks, track officials are anticipating a pool of around $2M when the sequence kicks off in Race 6 at approximately 2:44 PM eastern time. Here are my thoughts.Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.Race 6:Grade: B-Main Ticket: 5 PreventBackups: 7 Classic of CourseForecast: The Rainbow kicks off with this high-level handicap event at two-turns over the all-weather where #5 Prevent not only gets back to his preferred surface, but also is likely to find himself on an uncontested lead under jockey Emisael Jaramillo. The 6-time winner has earned 5 of his career victories over this surface and should be tough to catch late. If Prevent gets challenged more on the front end than it appears on paper, #7 Classic of Course is the likeliest to take advantage. The Florida-bred has proven versatile winning on 3 different surfaces through his first 15 starts, including an off the pace victory three-back over the all-weather at this same distance. Regular rider Jonathan Ocasio will remain onboard.Race 7:Grade: B+Main Ticket: 3 Spirit PrinceBackups: NoneForecast: My strongest opinion of the sequence comes in this optional claimer over the lawn where the pace should be honest at the very least. This bodes well for #3 Spirit Prince. The Miguel Clement trainee comes in off a third-place effort at Kentucky Downs won on the front end by a horse for course named Quartocento. Prior to that, the Cairo Prince colt came from off the pace to beat a first-level allowance bunch at Monmouth Park. He comes in fresh and should get a ground saving, off the pace voyage under veteran jockey Joe Bravo. All in on #3 Spirit Prince!Race 8:Grade: C+Main Ticket: 1 Heaven’s Promise; 2 Diamonds N ThrillsBackups: NoneForecast: I am also expecting a lively early tempo in this beaten $8k claimer over the all-weather, which should benefit those who can settle off the pace early and finish with energy. #1 Heaven’s Promise fits the profile. The Union Rags filly ships back to Florida from the Mid-Atlantic and drops to the lowest level of her career. Her maiden victory came over this surface in April and she draws favorably along the rail. #2 Diamonds N Thrills is unlikely to offer the value of my top choice, but also fits the profile of a horse that is likely to make the most of the likely race shape. The Spun to Run filly has hit the board in 8 of 11 over the Gulfstream Park synthetic and should get a much better setup than she did earlier this month when they went 25.1 and 50.2 in the early stages.Race 9:Grade: B-Main Ticket: 5 Makeit to CheyenneBackups: 2 Xy SpeedForecast: This five-furlong dash over the grass offers up a rematch of the October 26 race won by #5 Makeit to Cheyenne. The D J Stable gelding got a cleaner trip than #2 Xy Speed that day and held off the veteran by a head to spring the upset. Xy Speed certainly brings the strongest resume in, but draws inside again and certainly is not the same horse he once was. He can win as the public choice in what looks like a two-horse race, but I prefer Makeit to Cheyenne. The addition of blinkers has the Joe Orseno trainee moving in the right direction, while it is hard to imagine Xy Speed posting a career best in career start 49. Either way, I expect one of them to get to the wire first with a preference to Makeit to Cheyenne.Race 10: Florida Sire In Reality S.Grade: B-Main Ticket: 5 Strategic RiskBackups: 1 KhozaliteForecast: The colts and geldings finale for the 2YO Florida Sire Series is a 1 1/16-miles event over the main track where the majority of the field has stamina questions to answer. #1 Khozalite already responded with a two-turn victory over the turf against MSW company in late August before cutting back to one-turn to win the Affirmed last month. He is the clear one to beat, but will have to work out a trip from the inside with plenty of other speed types drawn to his outside. He is hard to toss given the question marks throughout the field, but I prefer the value of #5 Strategic Risk. The son of Noble Bird has not won at a route of ground like Khozalite, but has the pedigree to handle the added distance. He comes in off a third-place effort in the aforementioned Affirmed. I am banking on him getting a quality mid-pack trip under jockey Javier Castellano. At his 8-1-ML offering, he is also worth a Win bet using Xpressbet and 1ST/BET’s Money Back offer. Remember to register for that promotion!Race 11:Grade: C+Main Ticket: 6 EtonBackups: 4 Change at Jamaica; 2 The Great OscarForecast: The sequence and the first Saturday of the Championship Meet conclude with a non winners of two event over the sod where I like #6 Eton most. The English Channel gelding moves back to the lawn in his first start off the claim for trainer Carlos David. David clicks at well over 20% recently off the claim and this guy gets back to his preferred surface. It appears his race to lose. If he fails as the likely post-time favorite, perhaps #2 The Great Oscar or #4 Change at Jamaica can come rolling late and close this out. Either way, best of luck on the opening Saturday at Gulfstream Park!

The final weekend of the year at Churchill Downs is upon us, which means big fields and likely a juicy Derby City 6 pool with a mandatory payout on Sunday afternoon. First things first though since Saturday is one of my favorite cards of the year under the twin spires. Not only does the Stars of Tomorrow II card include a plethora of maiden special weight events for juveniles, but also gets us back on the Road to the Kentucky Derby and Kentucky Oaks. Also note that Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager closes at 6 pm ET.My top plays on the day come over the middle part of the card where I am hopeful deuces are wild!Race 6:This MSW event for 2YO fillies at two-turns over the grass feels wide-open since I am against 5-2-ML favorite #4 Kentucky Belle. The Justify filly has lost at 5-2 and 6-5 already and comes in off an underwhelming third in her turf debut. She is capable of a move forward with the addition of blinkers, but I am going to take a big swing against her with #2 Karma Cat. This daughter of Practical Joke debuted and was outrun in a live MSW sprint over the main track at Saratoga before getting caught hopelessly wide into the first turn in her grass debut at Keeneland on October 18. She tired badly that afternoon in Lexington, but it was an impossible trip from the get-go. Now, the Whit Beckman trainee moves inside and possesses some early speed in a race that appears void of it for the most part. Hopefully, jockey Joe Ramos gets aggressive from the gate and gets this gal into a favorable forward position. I expect her to outrun her odds if so.Play: #2 Karma Cat (20-1)Race 7:These 1 1/16-miles dirt MSW races at Churchill Downs often contain some colts that we will see on the Road to the Derby at some point. I am hopeful one of those is #2 Liberty National. The $525k Keeneland September 2024 purchase debuted at Keeneland last month for trainer Kenny McPeek in what clearly looked like a prep at 7-furlongs. The son of Maxfield broke well, but then was taken in hand by jockey Jose Ortiz. From there Ortiz let Liberty National drop hopelessly out of it before putting in a decent late run with a solid gallop out. McPeek often uses first starts as a lesson and now he turns to jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. and stretches his trainee out to a route of ground. I expect a big move forward at a solid price.Play: #2 Liberty National (6-1 ML)Race 8: Fern Creek Stakes ($10,000 Turkey Bowl Promo-Eligible Race)My top stakes play of the day comes in this 6.5-furlong dash for 2YO fillies where I love the chances of #2 Paige Turner. The $350k daughter of Army Mule has done very little wrong through two starts for trainer Cherie DeVaux. Her second on debut at Saratoga came with a trip between rivals that rarely results in a strong finish and she followed it up with a dominant victory over this surface going 7-panels on Halloween. The inside draw is likely to present a different type of trip than her stress-free outside stalking voyage in her maiden breaker, but she showed the ability to deal with adversity in August and has the look of a serious female sprinter.Play: #2 Paige Turner (7-2 ML)

Hoosier Park has a 13-race card with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 6 (6:32 PM EDT)5-Can'ttouchthese (1/1)-Team DeLong 3-year-old has won 4 of the last 5 starts, and the only loss came 4 back when it was hung the mile on 10-31. The race should go through this filly and it likes to win. Has captured 10 of 20 starts this year and has 16 pictures in 27 races at HoP. Has good tactical speed and unless the trip is really bumpy this should be the picture taker.Race 7 (6:55 PM EDT)1-Ayeaye Captain Deo (12-1)-Going to look for some value in this leg and fade the 9/5 program chalk #4 and will start with a price shot. The Robert Taylor entry tries Lasix for the 2nd time and hasn't drawn post 1 since it won the Simcoe at Mohawk in early September. Raced okay last week but couldn't make up ground down the lane. That was on a sloppy track and will look for better here.7-Chadler Bing (7/2)-This is a nice local bred who has lost to the program choice in the last 2 races. Has finished 2nd in both races, but last time raced better with Trace Tetrick at the controls. Tetrick sticks, and the Alvin Miller pupil could be sitting on a big try.9-Extra Suds (6-1)-The post makes it a bigger challenge and improves the price. Won last time in the slop from post 5 and was used hard into a 26.2 opening quarter. Did get the top and made every call a winning one. Has big gate speed to get there again and Peter Wrenn should have the pedal down.10-Banderas (12-1)-Got the pocket and lost by a head to the one above last time. Could get a cozy trip here if okay going into the 1st turn. This is a longshot that could get sucked around and connect if within reach of the leader at the head of the stretch.Race 8 (7:18 PM EDT)4-Gorgeous Big Guy (7/2)-Big Guy raced evenly last time in the slop and has finished 2nd in 11 races this year. Not overly impressed with a small price on Oakwood Ardan, the 2-1 chalk who will likely be slammed. Will look to the other Burke entry to win and to add value to the Pick 4 sequence.6-I'm Skinnydipin N (5/2)-Dropped and popped in last and has finished 2nd in the last 3 races against straight Open company. Does step up, but this is a player with an honest pace to close into.Race 9 (7:41 PM EDT)6-Play Me Rock (3-1)-Here is an up and down sort that manages to win its share of races. Made the most of landing in the pocket in last and has the gate speed to get a top of the stack trip again.7-American Classic (7/2)-Drops and should appreciate the company. Atlee Bender usually drives and with this post draw needs to provide a sharp steer. Bender found a live cover flow the last time the veteran drew post 7. He rolled by down the lane and finished with a 26.2 last quarter.8-Joker Rockwell (5-1)-Could leave and get a decent early seat. There isn't much gate speed and an aggressive start should help chances. John DeLong picked here over #1 and could be a player at a square price.$1 Early Pick 45/1,7,9,10/4,6/6,7,8Total Bet=$24Check me out on Twitter!