By Jeremy Plonk
The Thanksgiving holiday week gets off to a fast start Monday with the $300,000 Steel Valley Sprint at Mahoning Valley and the 7-stakes New Mexico Classic Day card at Zia Park. Add in a Del Mar makeup day from last Friday’s weather cancellation and it already feels like the holiday is here. Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet get 10X 1/ST Rewards Points today on all plays at Zia Park.Mahoning Valley: Race 10 (4:18 pm ET) | $300,000 Steel Valley Sprint#11 Guns Loaded will be a deserving favorite off a smashing return win at Churchill in September. The Jose D’Angelo trainee was set back by a 2-turn bid in the Holy Bull that was reasonable to try given his pedigree, but his running lines have always suggested he’s best sprinting. There’s a solid pace here for his patient style to pounce. Look for #2 Hymn (10-1 morning line) to perhaps improve with a rider change to Evin Roman. Not that he’s better than Luis Saez, just that Hymn has made a few premature moves under Saez and any change of tactics might get this one back to his highly promising Oaklawn unveiling. Exacta play 11-2.Zia Park: Race 8 (5:14 pm ET) | $150,000 New Mexico Classic JuvenileNo doubt the Albuquerque duo of #9 Speed Merchant and #2 Bully Boy will garner the attention in the third installment of their budding rivalry. But neither is guaranteed to handle the Zia Park surface the same. We know #4 Fort Sumner (10-1 morning line) did so nicely in his debut. He’s a well-meant $80,000 buy by $7,500 stallion Marking. I love that dominant Remington rider Ramon Vazquez gets the call here and he’s been razor sharp riding this meet early in the week before heading back to OKC. That’s the play.
By Al Cimaglia
Yonkers Raceway has a 12-race card featuring action from the MGM Grand Prix Pacing Series. There is a $10,459 carryover in the $1 Pick 5 that begins in Race 5. So, that sequence will have a $25,000 guaranteed pool tonight. The $2.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 9, and it will be my focus.Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 9 (9:25 PM EDT)1-Miki Shan (3-1) N-1-Miki Shan 3-1-Hasn’t raced since 10-12 and was scratched sick here on 10-28. Did put in a nice qualifier on 11-17. Raced from the back leaving from post 6 and stormed home in 54.3. Finished a close 5th against a tough field. Could wire this crew if fires hot off the bench.2-El Rey (5-1)-The 5-year-old has a 151.3 mark here last year and usually only races on the Hilltop on special occasions. Bartlett will have the Andrew Harris pupil forwardly placed and with the inside draw could put up a win in the 1st leg of the Grand prix series.Race 10 (9:45 PM EDT)1-Vicious (5-1)-The Joe B entry is best, as in only wins if on the engine. That seems to be the case, and Brent Holland will have the pedal down to take control. If left alone, this pilot could steal a quarter and then it has a chance to knock-off the one below.4-Christopher Dance N (6/5)-The Cullipher 5-year-old exploded home with a 54.2 back half to draw off by over 4 lengths in last. Faces the same kind tonight and should be another tiny price. Jason Bartlett has options, and speed at his disposable, this is a must use at a tiny price.Race 11 (10:05 PM EDT)1-Hammering Hank (5/2)-The Burke trainee came a good 2nd at 8-1 last time. That was the 1st start in town since shipping back from The Meadows. There could be others that leave but when the dust settles Yannick Gingras should be no worse than in the pocket. Looks like a main player in a race without a standout.3-Just Enuff Stuff (9/2)-Makes the 1st start for trainer Mike Forte barn and that barn posts 18% winners after a claim. Won 2 and 3 back and that streak ended last week with a 7-hole draw. Beaten chalk could make amends if George Brennan does a good job of timing the gate. Should have a big chance of getting a top of the stack trip, just like the one above.Race 12 (10:25 PM EDT)3-Rockin N Talkin (7/2)-Back in October while in the Stratton barn, the veteran beat the $25k claimers twice and the $30k claimers. Then was claimed by Deb Daguet and has raced against the $40 claimers in the last 2 starts and recent form has looked dull. Gets some needed class relief and now faces a beatable group of $30k claimers.4-Walkinshaw N (2-1)-The 13-year-old doesn't bring his fastball out every race, but when it leaves from the inside it usually is in the mix. Has a similar profile as the one above, form has tailed off and now gets class relief. But the Hudson trainee has an advantage over others, it gets a new set of hands as Bartlett is at the controls. There is some early speed inside and the race could set up for a closer.$2 Late Pick 41,2/1,4/1,3/3,4Total Bet=$32Check me out on Twitter!
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVES10X 1/ST Rewards Points | Zia Park | today’s racesSCJJDULE NOTEDel Mar | makeup card today for Friday’s weather cancellationTOURNAMENT TIME$40 Del Mar Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $98,116 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:05 pm ET--Parx will have a mandatory payout on Wednesday this weekKEY RACESZia Park | Race 4 | 3:26 pm ET | first of 7 New Mexico Classic Day stakesMahoning Valley | Race 8 | 3:18 pm ET | Mahoning Distaff StakesMahoning Valley | Race 9 | 3:48 pm ET | White Memorial StakesMahoning Valley | Race 10 | 4:18 pm ET | Steel Valley Sprint StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXParx | Race 1 | 12:05 pm ETZia Park | Race 3 |2:59 pm ETDel Mar | Race 9 | 7:30 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJacinto Solis | Parx | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Mountaineer | favorites won 5 of 8 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Xpressbet
TOURNAMENT TIME$40 Del Mar Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $126,875 | Gulfstream Park | begins Race 6 | 2:47 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $189,873 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 5 | 2:57 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $174,248 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 11 | 6:12 pm ETKEY RACESAqueduct | Race 4 | 1:40 pm ET | Forever Together StakesAqueduct | Race 8 | 3:39 pm ET | Pebbles StakesWoodbine | Race 9 | 5:11 pm ET | Clarendon StakesDel Mar | Race 7 | 6:32 pm ET | Red Carpet StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXLaurel | Race 6 | 2:24 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 6 | 3:26 pm ETDel Mar | Race 7 | 6:32 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHSaffie Joseph Jr. | Gulfstream | 6 of 7 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Gulfstream | favorites won 6 of 11 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Sunday Spot PlaysBrian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Scott Shapiro
The penultimate week of racing this year at Churchill Downs concludes this afternoon with a 10-race card that kicks off at 1 pm ET. With a plethora of stakes races on the horizon for Thanksgiving week, it is more of a “meat and potatoes” card today, but there are definitely some attractive maiden and allowance events to sink your teeth into. Here are a trio of horses I will build my Sunday Funday around in Louisville.Race 1:The card kicks off with a $50k maiden claimer for fillies and mares at 6-furlongs where #3 Our Shenanigan was made the understandable 2-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker Mike Battaglia. The Brad Cox trainee has hit the board in 4 of 6, including twice against protected maidens. The problem is she has had plenty of chances already where she was supposed to win. She shook off the rust last time out in a $150k maiden claimer at Keeneland, so theoretically she should improve second off the bench. That said, she is not for me. I prefer the far lighter raced #1 Army Nurse. The Brian Lynch trainee debuted in a race that included Our Shenanigan and while she was beaten a nose back on October 17 by the morning line favorite, she has far more room for improvement. The daughter of Army Mule broke just ok and was buried down on the rail much of the way. Look for Luis Saez to get her out of that gate a little quicker today and try to get to the lead. If he does, she should be long gone in the lid lifter.Play: #1 Army Nurse (5-2 ML)Race 6:I bet #2 Exclusive Star on November 7 in her second start off the layoff for trainer Eddie Kenneally and she missed by a head despite a bobble shortly after the break. The Boxman Stables filly ran huge against the flow three-back at Keeneland despite finishing off the board and has come back off the break firing two solid shots for trainer Eddie Kenneally. The American Pharoah filly comes back on just 16 days-rest, moves to an inside post, retains Luis Saez, and should either be on the lead or in the pocket throughout. Hopefully, she can avoid getting caught up in an early battle and sticks around her 5-1-morning line offering since I much prefer her to 3-1-top choice #7 Hear the Queen and 4-1-second choice #3 Competitive Threat.Play: #2 Exclusive Star (5-1 ML)Race 10:The card concludes with a MSW event for 2YOs at 6.5-furlongs where Winstar Farm homebred #8 Wall Street is likely to take a lot of public support. The Into Mischief colt is a half-brother to 2024 H. Allen Jerkens (G1) and Woody Stephens (G1) winner Patch Adams. He comes in off some fast works and attracts Irad Ortiz Jr. He could be tough to beat, but I am almost willing to take at least a small swing against these well-bred types before seeing one for myself.I will roll with the colt with experience in #2 Circle Tap. The son of Twirling Candy was underwhelming last time out at Keeneland when finishing an even fifth, but I love the way he finished two-back in his lone start over this racetrack. It is important to remember that Keeneland and Churchill are not similar surfaces, so often times some horses much prefer one to the other. I am hopeful that is the case with this Willis Horton Racing runner that put in a strong late run on September 12 to finish second to speed horse Spun DMC. He moves inside and hopefully opts to make one run like he did two and a half months ago. He should be a very fair price.Play: #2 Circle Tap (10-1 ML)
By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park has a 10-race card. The 0.20 early Pick 5 starts in Race 1. It has a $75,000 guaranteed pool, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 1 (6:35 PM EDT)1-Fancy Lettering (2-1)-Got on the engine and went gate to wire in the Pop-Up Final and that was the 1st start in the Corey Giles barn after a claim. Got a boost last time with Louis Roy taking the lines and now JMac is at the controls. Could have its way with this crew, using but can't fully trust.6-My Only Sunshine (4-1)-Went off at 9/5 and broke stride down the lane in the Pop-Up Final. Basically, it was a dull effort but beat this kind 2 back. Went off at as the chalk and will look for rebound effort at a better price.9-Job Hunter (3-1)-The 4-year-old makes the 1st start for the Tackoor barn and Doug McNair gets the nod. When these two combine they post 29% winners, and this mare drops to a spot to shine.Race 2 (7:08 PM EDT)3-Early Action (2-1)-Went the back half in 55.1 to roll by this kind on 11-17. Paid off at a handsome 9-1 and now is the program chalk. That was the 1st picture at 7 Mohawk in starts and the Auciello trainee can stay good for a while.6-Bold Spirit (4-1)-Returns to the Marfisi barn and that outfit had the gelding 3 back when it worked to get the top and didn't look back. The Stay Hungry 4-year-old has hit the board in 17 of 29 and posted 9 wins at Wbsb. Trevor Henry knows well as he has taken more than a couple of pictures with this mare.Race 3 (7:31 PM EDT)3-Rays Kredit (10-1)-Tyler Borth grabs the lines and he has had success steering this veteran. Going to excuse the no-move mile from post 9 in the last start. Gets post relief tonight and fits well with this bunch so will take a swing for a price in a hard to read race.4-Aragonite (3-1)-Went off a 95-1 in last and had its best race when a $20k purse was on the line. Went the 2nd half in 56.2 despite being hung plus having to go 3-wide and finished 3rd. Like the one above, has only 1 win this year but should be in the mix at the wire.Race 4 (7:54 PM EDT)7-Bella Cavalla (3-1)-Finished 2nd in last and was almost 12 lengths back to very well-meant winner who is not in this field. This is a scattered bunch and Doug McNair sticks with Kyle Fellows and when those two team up they post 28%. A case could be made for others. But my lean is to use this mare that kept coming even though was hung out last time and she likes to compete.Race 5 (8:17 PM EDT)7-Lets Got Rocked (2-1)-Left off the car in last, ended up in the pocket and finished there. That was a nice effort especially considering it missed a start. Does good work at Mohawk (67-17-11-8) and likes to race on the engine. A top of the stack trip appears well within reach with this field.8-HF Pans Shadow (3-1)-The Smith entry has taken a picture the last 4 times Doug McNair was between the pipes.Finished 2nd in last then was a winner 2 and 3 back. Recent form is sharp and guess who returns to drive tonight. Can McNair make it 5 for 5? Maybe, does deserve respect and will include.$1 Early Pick 51,6,9/3,6/3,4/7/7,8Total Bet=$24Check me out on Twitter!
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVES$2,500 Hit & Split | Gulfstream | Late Pick 4$2,500 Hit & Split | Gulfstream | Late Pick 5TOURNAMENT TIME$40 Del Mar Feeder | details$300 Del Mar Challenge | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $105,077 | Gulfstream Park | begins Race 6 | 2:47 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $174,134 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 6 | 3:26 pm ETPick 6 | $51,879 | Del Mar | begins Race 4 | 5:02 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $161,482 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 12 | 5:21 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $23,912 | Del Mar | Race 9 | 7:32 pm ETKEY RACESAqueduct | Race 1 | 11:40 am ET | NY Stallion Thunder RumbleAqueduct | Race 4 | 1:10 pm ET | NY Stallion Staten IslandLaurel | Race 6 | 2:25 pm ET | Willa On the Move StakesGulfstream | Race 6 | 2:47 pm ET | Juvenile Sprint StakesLaurel | Race 7 | 2:54 pm ET | Dave’s Friend StakesFair Grounds | Race 4 | 3:15 pm ET | Caldwell Memorial StakesLaurel | Race 8 | 3:24 pm ET | Richard W. Small StakesWoodbine | Race 10 | 4:23 pm ET | Shady Well StakesFair Grounds | Race 7 | 4:45 pm ET | Ney Memorial StakesChurchill Downs | Race 10 | 5:25 pm ET | Commonwealth Turf StakesFair Grounds | Race 9 | 5:45 pm ET | Morreale Memorial StakesDel Mar | Race 8 | 7:02 pm ET | Native Diver StakesCharles Town | Race 7 | 10:02 pm ET | West Virginia FuturitySha Tin (HK) | Race 6 | 2:40 am ET | Jockey Club Sprint | featuring Ka Ying RisingSha Tin (HK) | Race 7 | 3:15 am ET | Jockey Club MileSha Tin (HK) | Race | 3:50 am ET | Jockey Club Cup | featuring Romantic WarriorLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXLaurel | Race 1 | 12:00 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 5 | 2:57 pm ETFair Grounds | Race 5 | 3:45 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHKevin Attard | Woodbine | 6 of 7 entrants 3-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Aqueduct | trainer Linda Rice | 3 wins, 2 thirds from 5 startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Gulfstream Park Hit & Split Analysis for SaturdayJeremy Plonk: Race of the Week – Dave’s Friend Stakes at LaurelScott Shapiro: Fair Grounds Spot Plays for SaturdayJeremy Plonk: Saturday’s All-Stakes Pick 3 at LaurelJohnny Burke: Hong Kong Stakes Picks for Sha TinFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Johnny Burke
Race 6 | Jockey Club SprintTop Pick: #1 KA YING RISINGSuggested Play: Exacta – 1 w/ 7,8It’s not a sexy pick at 3/5 on the Morning Line, but KA YING RISING is truly the sprinter of this generation. Coming off a resounding win in the G1 Everest at Royal Randwick, we have almost no reason to believe KA YING RISING is in anything other than top form. This race should serve as a tune-up ahead of December 14th where he’ll look to defend his Hong Kong Sprint (G1) title. KA YING RISING will get his workout in and should romp in this field, but if we can find a standout opinion for the runner-up spot we can still make something of the race.TOMODACHI KOKORE is certainly in good form, having rattled off three wins in a row, but more than the trips to the winner’s circle I’m looking at the final race times where he has excelled. What I’m looking for is a runner with enough pure speed who can find a way to run above his class and well above his odds. This seven-year-old is just 7/1 on the Morning Line, making him the third choice, but his final times in his most recent victories have been coming in well under a lot of his competition. In these sprints, I like to lean on a horse’s pure speed more than tactical placement. Sometimes you just get breaks to go your way and when you’re fast, you’re fast.RAGING BLIZZARD boasts an appealing 16/1 Morning Line and has shown a cunning ability to close at both five and six furlongs. If things get hairy up front, and with a champ like KA YING RISING you never know what kind of instructions these jockeys will get to try to take him down, I like this gelding to have a fair shot at cleaning up some stragglers. He has finished within a half of a length of both FAST NETWORK and TOMODACHI KOKORE and with a tad bit of improvement in trip or speed, he’s got a good shot of clearing them both for second place.Race 7 | Jockey Club MileTop Pick: #13 LIGHT YEARS CHARMSuggested Plays: Win – 13 // Quinella – 13 w/ 1,4,5Contrary, maybe, to the 9/10 designation on Morning Line favorite MY WISH, I think this race is pretty wide open. The field consists of a strong group who have bounced around winning and hitting the board in Group Stakes action, with MY WISH in the best form of late.LIGHT YEARS CHARM is going to be stretching out an extra furlong in this bout, having won four of his last five races over seven furlongs each. He has only run one race at a mile where he placed third, but I think his recent performances have shown a propensity to go further. He has been more than capable of hanging onto the pace in those longer sprints and makes a surging closing run to pull through. With extra distance, I think the pace will slow down for him enough to keep him in this race all the way through, but I expect a busy group up front early duking it out for lone-pace status and eventually opening up a window for our top choice. Zac Purton is up and that bodes well for any bettor dabbling in the Hong Kong circuit.Alongside LIGHT YEARS CHARM, I think there is a lot of potential in some big prices. RED LION has an impressive G1 win on his resume and looked sharp in his season debut even with a tough trip grinding him down. I like his chances at improving in his second try of the new year. CHANCHENG GLORY is a one-mile monster, but will have to return to a form that has faded as of late. If he can reach deep in his bag and get up for this race, he’s going to remind us why a 99/1 Morning Line is too good to leave off the ticket. Lastly, HAPPY TOGETHER is a horse that has been highly touted by the connections, and while he’s been coming up just short I do think his team is anticipating a big run this Sunday at Sha Tin. Quite frankly, even his average recent race is worthy of finishing within a half-length of the lead, making him a prime Quinella or Exacta contender.Race 8 | Jockey Club CupTop Pick: #1 ROMANTIC WARRIOR *pictured*Suggested Play: Trifecta – 3,4,6 w/ 1 w/ 3,4,6ROMANTIC WARRIOR is already a legend in Hong Kong, and if you’ll recall, was leading Breeders’ Cup Classic Winner FOREVER YOUNG down the stretch in the Saudi Cup before losing by a less than a half-length. Prior to two second-place finishes in the Middle East, ROMANTIC WARRIOR and James McDonald were the stuff of nightmares for anyone running in Hong Kong. He’s coming back from an injury, and we should take into account that he may not look like his peak self right away, but anything close to his prime is more than enough to tackle this field. VOYAGE BUBBLE, only the second HK Triple Crown winner ever, is a clear second choice, but has shown an ability to be his own worst enemy at times.At 3/5 on ROMANTIC WARRIOR and 9/5 on VOYAGE BUBBLE, to me the only way to play this race is to find some prices and split the trifecta. We’d have to bank on ROMANTIC WARRIOR not having his best day off the layoff, VOYAGE BUBBLE getting into some trouble out of the gate, and one of three price horses finding a way to dig deep and take advantage of the circumstances. It’s a stretch, but I can’t in good faith advise many other ways to spend your bankroll on a race with such a high chance of pennies on the dollar for payouts.What’s the difference between this race and KA YING RISING at 3/5? Why not play a cold exacta again? Well, we know KA YING RISING is healthy and in incredible form. We’ve seen a run in Hong Kong and Australia this season and both were outright dominant. ROMANTIC WARRIOR is the classiest horse in the field, but we have introduced a couple of unknowns to the equation. With KA YING RISING, I have no doubt the race is all his to lose. With ROMANTIC WARRIOR, it’s not inconceivable to see a trip where his time off catches up with him and he needs the race ahead of the International Races on December 14th. This isn’t the destination for ROMANTIC WARRIOR, nor KA YING RISING, but one may need the tune-up and the other is finely tuned and firing.However you decide to play them, the races at Sha Tin this Sunday are expected to be spectacular and well worth the attention of racing fans around the globe. I wish you the best of luck with all your plays, and hope everyone is gearing up for some needed time with family and friends this holiday season.