Sweltering heat around Franklin, KY will shorten the Kentucky Downs Thursday action that gets underway at an earlier noon ET / 11 am CT local start. Only Races 1-7 will be offered Thursday in an attempt to beat the heat while remaining races will be brought back later in the 1/ST BET Kentucky Downs meeting.The 1/ST BET and Xpressbet daily $3,000 Exacta-Thon could prove even more lucrative if able to pull down winning exactas ($2 minimum) in at least 3 of races. The 7 chances Thursday likely means fewer players sharing in the bonus money, creating a bigger winning split. Don’t sleep on win plays as exotics at Kentucky Downs can be a challenge, witnessed by our 4 plays in this space on Sunday – which included 3 winners at nice prices but unsuccessful deliveries of the runners-up to complete an exacta.Let’s get to work.Kentucky Downs: Race 3 | 1:00 pm ET#6 Turino (7-2 morning line odds) was a strong second here in 2023 and makes her first local bid in 2 years while carrying good form this year at Gulfstream. The offspring of Kantharos are fabulous locally, winning 25% with a $3.06 return for every $1 bet. Saffie Joseph wins 25% in local allowance races over the past 5 years with a profitable ROI to boot. I’ll key Turino on top and play to win.Exacta-Thon plays: 6 over 2,5,7Kentucky Downs: Race 5 | 2:06 pm ET#2 That Wasn’t Me (6-1 morning line odds) had no chance behind a slow pace at Colonial Downs last time and note that circuit has produced a flat-bet profit the last 5 years at KD with its shippers (and produced 3 winners opening week). Kelsey Danner’s runners were knocking on the door last week locally and keep in mind this one’s sire, Blame, had a fantastic 19% local win rate the last 5 years with a gawdy $1.85 return for every $1 bet. Lots to like. Win bet and key to the exactas.Exacta-Thon plays: Key-box 2 with 4,6,10.Kentucky Downs: Race 6 | 2:39 pm ET#6 One Sweet Girl (12-1 morning line odds) is the day’s price play for me returning to the allowance ranks, where she’s won 2 straight clouded around some decent stakes tries. Note that sire Good Samaritan’s offspring are a wild 26% winner over this turf course the last 5 years with a $1.40 return on every $1 bet. She’s never been on the KD turf, but look for this Carlos David trainee to handle it on pedigree and note jockey Jaime Torres won 2 races here opening week. Strong pace set-up helps her finish. Win-place money for sure.Exacta-Thon plays: Key-box 6 with 7,8

Closing week at Saratoga continues on Thursday afternoon when the New York Racing Association presents a ten-race card headlined by the $200k Bernard Baruch. The 1 1/16-miles event over the grass goes as Race 9 with a post time set for 5:44 PM eastern making it a key race in all late horizontal wagers and one of several chances to take part in our “Fall Into Fortune” promotion. Just register on the promotional landing page, bet $100, and get a $10 bonus on select tracks on Tuesday and Thursday in September. The good news for NYRA fans is that this Thursday the select track is Saratoga. Here are my thoughts on the feature, as well as a few other spot plays I will wager on to earn my easy ten bucks.Race 2:My first play comes in this auction-restricted MSW event for 2YOs sprinting over the grass where the majority of runners are entering with zero or one start under their belt. None of the debut runners wowed me at their expected off-odds, so I opted to roll with second-time starter #1 Rufus the Red. The son of Kantharos debuted over the main track on August 7 in a 12-horse field where he attracted Irad Ortiz, was bet down to 9-2, and was essentially cost all chance when breaking slow and steadying right after the gates opened. Trainer Tom Morley moves the colt to the grass, which should work well considering his dam Spelker won 3 of 14 sprinting over the sod throughout her career for over $154k. Hopefully, Ricardo Santana Jr. can cure her debut gate issues in lifetime try number two.Play: #1 Rufus the Red (9-2 ML)Picks: 1-8-3Race 8:Interestingly this MSW event for 3YOs+ over the main track attracted five first-time starters. This is a late time for six-figure purchases in most of these barns to start their racing career, so I will side with a known commodity. #7 Bogus Operandi debuted at Delaware Park in late July in a race won in dominating fashion by gate-to-wire odds on favorite Amberjack. The son of Maximus Mischief tried to go with the eventual winner when the real running started, but was no real match. That said, he was sent off at 11-1 and dusted the rest of that field. Trainer Rick Dutrow thought enough of his gelding’s effort to ship north to the Spa and take a run at a much bigger purse. It appears Dutrow has found a good spot with veteran John Velazquez set to take the call. I expect a move forward and trip to the winner’s circle.Play: #7 Bogus Operandi (5-2 ML)Picks: 7-8-6Race 9: Bernard BaruchThe aforementioned feature at two-turns over the grass has a noticeable lack of early speed signed on. This is likely to put a few of the top contenders in a tough spot, but not #3 Pass the Hat. The son of Collected has been on the sidelines since his third-place finish in the Kelso (G3) during the Belmont Stakes Racing Festival. The Pin Oak stud runner is far from a need the lead type, but should be able to control the tempo early given his inside draw and the true lack of zip the rest of the field contains. Perhaps, #7 Risk Tolerance will get aggressive out of the gate, but either way I like this $300k Keeneland September ’22 purchase chances of taking advantage of a soft pace off the freshening. Especially, since he ran well in both of his first two starts in Saratoga Springs in June and July.Play: #3 Pass the Hat (5-2 ML)Picks: 3-4-2

Del Mar’s five-day closing week for the summer meet gets underway Thursday and races through Labor Day Monday. Eight races are on tap to open the action as favorites have scored well below the national average this season (32%) and the average winner has been a shade under 6-1 odds. Through 7 weeks our Del Mar selections remain in the black, showing a $279.80 return on 132 plays in this space ($2.12 back on each $2 bet; average winner paid right at $10.00) – but we’ve given away a decent chunk of the profits the past 2 weeks and look to right the ship.Each day this summer at Del Mar, I’ll be handicapping the action with my top plays on the card – including full-card selections for a featured program each week (this week’s full-card will be Sunday – featuring the Del Mar Futurity).Del Mar: Race 4 | 6:37 pm ET#4 Not A Sinner (3-1 morning line odds) lures Antonio Fresu away from the morning line favorite and projects to get a dynamite trip a few lengths behind what appears to be an inside speed duel. The Simon Callaghan barn hasn’t been what you’d expect in 2026, but has perked up in recent days at Del Mar and this consistent mare has been knocking on the door. Picks 4-1-3.Del Mar: Race 6 | 7:42 pm ET#1 Corporate Violette (8-1 morning line odds) gets a complete flip in posts from the far outside draw last time when overused early to a rail draw Thursday. Jockey change to Antonio Fresu can’t be overstated here from Aguilar and consider Fresu’s 4: 2-0-2 record on this mare when able to stalk and pounce under his hands. She’s another in a line of Starspangledbanner offspring who have run well over the Del Mar turf. Among several class droppers looking for paydirt at the end of the meet. Picks 1-4-2-7.Del Mar: Race 7 | 8:12 pm ET#4 Pavel Is Appealing (7-2 morning line odds) can continue what’s been one of Doug O’Neil’s better Del Mar summers. Stretches out in trip off a series of turf sprints and tries a dirt route for the first time in 9 starts. O’Neill has been a sharp 6: 2-1-2 this meeting moving turf to dirt. The Pavel offspring have been beyond fantastic at the meet with 36% wins from 22 dirt starts and a $3.42 ROI for every $1 bet – and his filly She’s No Quant almost stretched out to win the stakes last weekend. Morning-line chalk Christel Clean is 1-for-5 as the favorite and has had plenty of chances while often coming up short. Picks 4-2-6.

The Lead:America’s top Breeders’ Cup Turf contender matches up against the UK’s defending Breeders’ Cup Turf winner in what promises to be a super Saturday matchup at the 1/ST BET Kentucky Downs meeting. The $2 million Kentucky Turf Cup has the marquee elder turf marathoners on a card that co-features the $3 million 1/ST BET Nashville Derby for the sophomores. For all its European qualities and quirks of the course at Kentucky Downs, note that American-based horses have won this race every year since its 1998 return to the schedule. Extreme heat in the Franklin, KY area this week should have the turf course super-firm and be another feather in the cap of the Americans.Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET be sure to register for the $3,000 Exacta-Thon promotion daily for Kentucky Downs and earn bonus cash on successful exacta plays. For more coverage of the 1/ST BET Nashville Derby on this Saturday card, be sure to check out 1/ST BET handicapper Matt Bernier's analysis available Friday.​​Field Depth:Grade 1 winners ETHICAL DIAMOND and BURNHAM SQUARE top the playbill but are joined by Group 1 winner TIFFANY and defending champ and multiple Grade 2 winner OLE CRAZY BONE.​Pace:LAYABOUT adds blinkers and clearly has been the most intent on the front among these, while OLE CRAZY BONE figures very prominently in the early going. The pace feels legitimate to above average for the distance over this course.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-TIFFANY: Multiple Group 1 winner in Germany is multiple Group 2-placed in England for Newmarket-based Sir Mark Prescott. It’s been nearly a decade since he’s run a horse in America but the veteran trainer has an Arc de Triomphe to his credit in 2022. Remarkable 15-for-18 in the exacta for this 6-year-old mare who has faced the boys in 4 of her last 6 starts. Has a forward running style that could play well stateside and is a pure, 1-1/2 miles performer. Regular stable go-to pilot Luke Morris last rode in North America in 2018 at Woodbine and teamed with Prescott at the 2017 Breeders’ Cup with Turf Sprint sixth-place finisher Marsha.2-DESVIO: No match chasing Burnham Square in the Elkhorn this spring or Ole Crazy Bone in the Bowling Green in July. He’s won just 1 of his last 13, a 34-1 stunner in the Sycamore at Keeneland last fall. John Velazquez pilots and best case scenario looks like a minor share.3-DRESDEN ROW: Todd Pletcher trainee knocked off Ole Crazy Bone in a Churchill allowance this spring and was a narrow third behind Burnham Square in the Arlington Million most recently. That puts him in the fold vs. the top of this race. Hard to argue with 19-for-19 in the money but note he’s going 12 furlongs for the first time and hasn’t won yet beyond 9. Pletcher and Tyler Gaffalione teamed to win this race 2 years ago with Grand Sonata.4-EFF THIRTY FIVE: Mike Maker takes over the training of this former Brittany Russell charge who relocated to his Kentucky barn in July. First trip this far and first trip to Kentucky Downs for a horse making a steep class hike. Antonio Fresu rides the Yoshida gelding who comes into the race in good form, winning 3 of his last 4. Prefer others at this 12F trip as a maternal grandson of middle-distance influence Unbridled’s Song.5-LAYABOUT: Arlington Million pacemaker wound up a close fourth at Colonial to Burnham Square while a 67-1 longshot. He did wire the McKnight at Gulfstream over this 1-1/2 mile trip in January but figures to be under a lot of pressure to see this out Saturday. Blinkers on for a horse already in possession of early speed can be a risk in relaxion as Patrick Biancone puts the pressure on jockey Keith Asmussen to ration the gas. Factors for a while, but not likely late.6-ETHICAL DIAMOND: Last year’s 27-1 upsetter of the Breeders’ Cup Turf makes his US return off a Group 3 win in Ireland for trainer Willie Mullins. This former steeplechase performer rattled off 3 straight wins on the flat last year, culminating with his surprise at Del Mar. Some inconsistency has plagued him in 3 starts this year, but Ryan Moore returns to the saddle as he was aboard in the Ballyroan win last out and that’s a big plus. Expect him to be far back early and the hotter the pace, the better chance for this stayer as he pumps out 24-second quarters.7-BURNHAM SQUARE: America’s hottest turf distance performer has rattled off 4 straight wins this year since extending trips. Trainer Ian Wilkes always thought this Grade 1 Blue Grass winner on dirt would be better on turf, as was his dam, and he was rewarded this year with wins in the Elkhorn, Louisville, Chorleywood and most recently the Arlington Million. Burnham Square returns to Kentucky Downs under regular rider Brian Hernandez Jr., who teamed with him for a head runner-up in last year’s Nashville Derby over this course. Expect him to stalk from midflight and get first run on some of the deeper closers.8-OLE CRAZY BONE: Last year’s Kentucky Turf Cup winner ran a career-best in cruising by daylight that day in his only local appearance. He returns to the scene on 3 weeks’ rest after tiring late in the Grade 1 Clement but won his prior Saratoga start in the Bowling Green. Jockey Flavien Prat – who guided this gelding to wins here last year and in the Bowling Green in July – opts to ride at the Spa on Saturday, leaving the mount to Jose Ortiz, whose dream 2026 season has come under a slump late in the Saratoga meet. He doesn’t have to have the lead, but Ole Crazy Bone’s best races are when he’s right into the mix so the tempo set by Layabout could go a long way in determining his chances of repeat – something accomplished by Rochester, Da Big Hoss and Arklow in the last 25 years. Mike Maker has won this race a record 6 times, all since 2015.9-ECHO LANE: Gulfstream and Colonial-based runner for Rohan Crichton has dropped 6 straight, including road trips to Churchill and Monmouth. Didn’t come within 5 lengths of Burnham Square in 2 spring attempts and has seemed most effective at 1-1/16 miles, but was third in the Pan American over this trip in March. Prefer others.10-FORT GEORGE: Second-off-the-plane start for UK-based trainer Ed Walker, which historically has been a spot of regression for international runners over the years. He made a strong initial domestic bid when second by a nose in the Bowling Green at Saratoga behind return rival Ole Crazy Bone. The 4-year-old remained at Saratoga in the nearly 2 months since logging 5 additional works. His winter company lines in Dubai were fantastic vs. the likes of Rebel’s Romance and Ombudsman. Fort George will team for the first time with jockey Jamie Spencer, who is 19: 2-1-3 in Kentucky Downs raids since 2019, winning the 2023 $2 million Mint Millions aboard 6-1 shot Ancient Rome for Charlie Hills. Can’t easily dismiss chances.Most Likely Exotics Contender:BURNHAM SQUARE has 6 straight exacta finishes with a 4-race winning streak and the benefit of a good performance over the track already in the positive-check box. His running style keeps him in obvious exotics contention.Best Longshot Contender:DRESDEN ROW hasn’t missed a trifecta in 19 career starts for connections that won this race in 2024 and has been in the hunt against 2 of the major American contenders Saturday. At 12-1 morning line, he’s a distant sixth choice in the morning line who could spice exotics.​​Sending it in ($100 bankroll):I’m going to lean All-American here. $50 exacta BURNHAM SQUARE over OLE CRAZY BONE; $25 exacta OLE CRAZY BONE over BURNHAM SQUARE; $20 exacta BURNHAM SQUARE over DRESDEN ROW; $5 exacta OLE CRAZY BONE over DRESDEN ROW.

Saturday marks the last chance to qualify in the 2026 Xpressbet Fun in the Sun handicapping tournament with all weekly winners set to square off Labor Day Monday in the Final Table format. Five more Saratoga and Del Mar handicappers will qualify after Saturday’s eighth and final week of competition to bring the Final Table total cast to 40. The progressive jackpot for the Final Table sits at $15,640 with $10,000 added from Xpressbet.Richard Miller topped all Week 7 players last week with a $335.30 bankroll that nabbed him the $1,039.50 weekly first prize. Jeffrey Danner finished send with $329.60 bankrolled and earned $433.13 in prize money. Stephen Wolfson tallied $287.40 in bankroll for third and earned an additional $259.87. Others to earn Final Table seats last week were fourth-place finisher Gregory Caliwag ($272.80 bankroll) and fifth-place finisher Bryan Ingram ($271.40 bankroll). For Ingram and Caliwag, both earned a rare dual-seat in the Final Table, just the fourth and fifth players this season to double down. A complete list of current Final Table qualifiers is included at the bottom of the copy.Week 8 this Saturday once again features the final 5 races at Saratoga and first 5 races at Del Mar. Those contest heats include the Grade 1 Spinaway Stakes from the Spa. Monday’s Final Table continues the Saratoga last 5, Del Mar first 5 format.Fun in the Sun contestants play for weekly prize money and a chance to join each week’s top-5 players in the tournament’s Final Table on Labor Day. The 9-week Fun in the Sun handicapping contest runs 8 Saturdays from July 18-September 5 and concludes with the Final Table on Labor Day Monday, September 7.Entry is just $25 each qualifying round week and players utilize a $100 live bankroll on the final 5 races from Saratoga and first 5 races from Del Mar ($10 parimutuel win bets in each of the contest races). The top-5 players in accumulated earnings each week qualify for a seat in the final table, where just 40 entries will square off for the grand prize (players can qualify up to 2 entries in the Final Table). Weekly prize pool money will be on the line for the top-3 finishers each Saturday (70% of entry fees paid out weekly, 30% carries over to the Final Table pool).The Final Table format began in 2020 and past champions include Robert Rosen (2020), Wayne Tam (2021), Kevin Saunders (2022), Joe Tambasco (2023), Gordon Maruya (2024) and Andy Muhlada (2025).2026 Tournament DatesSaturday, July 18, 25Saturday, August 1, 8, 15, 22, 29Saturday and Monday, September 5 and 7 (Final Table)Buy-In$125 Buy-In per week, split between $100 Bankroll + $25 Entry FeeHow to PlayTournament consists of the last five (5) races each Saturday at Saratoga and the first five (5) races each Saturday at Del Mar. Players must make a $10 Win bet on one (1) horse in each race via the Contest Wagerpad.Weekly Prize Pool70% of Entry Fees are paid out each week as the Weekly Prize PoolWeekly PrizesTop Five (5) finishers each week automatically qualify for the Final Table1st Place Finisher – 60% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat2nd Place Finisher – 25% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat3rd Place Finisher – 15% of Weekly Prize Pool + Final Table Seat4th Place Finisher – Final Table Seat5th Place Finisher – Final Table SeatFinal Table Prizes30% of Entry Fees carried over to the Final Table$10,000-added prize pool courtesy of Xpressbet1st Place Finisher: 55% of Final Table Prize Pool2nd Place Finisher: 25% of Final Table Prize Pool3rd Place Finisher: 10% of Final Table Prize Pool4th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool5th Place Finisher: 5% of Final Table Prize Pool‍For more and to register, visit the Tournaments page.Fun in the Sun Final Table Qualifiers (35 of 40)** = dual qualifiers; ranked by bankroll with week and placing included** Ingram Bryan ($374.10) | Week 6 | 1 + ($271.40) | Week 7 | 5Knepper, Cheryl ($358.50) | Week 5 | 1Scott, George ($356.10) | Week 6 | 2Bassett, Joseph ($347.80) | Week 5 | 2Starr, Ellis ($345.0) | Week 3 | 1Campanella. Frank ($336.80) | Week 6 | 3Miller, Richard ($335.30) | Week 7 | 1Velguth, John ($333.50) | Week 1 | 1** Severson, Terrence ($330.50) | Week 1 | 2 + ($236.20) | Week 4 | 4Danner, Jeffrey ($329.60) | Week 7 | 2Gold, Aaron ($322.90) | Week 6 | 4Woodward, Nathan ($319.30) | Week 1 | 3Skotz, Christopher ($308.00) | Week 6 | 5Carroll, Thomas ($297.80) | Week 2 | 1Wolfson, Stephen ($287.40) | Week 7 | 3Levine, Stuart ($273.00) | Week 5 | 3** Caliwag, Greg ($272.80) | Week 7 | 4 + ($209.40) | Week 4 | 5Nagy, Nicholas ($271.20) | Week 1 | 4Sampo, Dino ($268.00) | Week 5 | 4Pacione, Franco ($264.20) | Week 4 | 1DeCaspers, Anthony ($261.00) | Week 5 | 5McKay, Joseph ($243.70) | Week 4 | 2** Nichols, Dave ($240.00) | Week 1 | 5 + ($234) | Week 3 | 2Scott, George ($239.00) | Week 4 | 3Hill, Barry ($237.30) | Week 2 | 2Dodds, Wardell ($236.90) | Week 2 | 3Essig David ($216.90) | Week 2 | 4Murdock, Dave ($184.00) | Week 3 | 3Muhlada, Andy ($176.90) | Week 2 | 5 (2026 FITS Defending Champion)Knepper, Greg ($175.60) | Week 3 | 4Salerno, Theresa ($169.50) | Week 3 | 5

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Assiniboia Downs | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $91,684 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $294,554 | Thistledown | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $14,555 (CAN) | Assiniboia Downs | Race 7 | 11:05 pm ETKEY RACESSaratoga | Race 1 | 1:10 pm ET | Sheppard Memorial Handicap (Steeplechase)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXSaratoga | Race 7 | 4:38 pm ETHorseshoe Indy | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETPenn National | Race 3 | 6:43 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Ferraro | Finger Lakes | all 5 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | jockey Deshawn Parker | 3 wins between Thistledown (day) and Mountaineer (night)PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Saratoga Spot Plays for WednesdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Closing week of the 2026 Saratoga meeting commences this afternoon at 1:10 PM eastern time. The last Wednesday slate of the year offers horseplayers a nine-race card that is headlined by a trio of allowance races run at one-turn over the main track. Here are the horses I like most on the day.Race 2:My first play comes in this $130k allowance event for 4YOs+ at seven furlongs over the main track where I will try #6 Over and Ollie. The son of Cairo Prince returned off a two-month layoff on August 22 in a similar spot for trainer Rick Dutrow and was beaten just a neck by the late run of Cat On Time. It was Over and Ollie’s third consecutive runner-up effort, which could be considered concerning, but I will give him one more shot on the quick turnaround for a barn that has clicked at 25% with runners returning off ten or less days rest over a 500+ race sample size. Kendrick Caromouche gets the leg up on the 6YO gelding that has won 2 of 4 over this surface. He should be prominently placed throughout to kick off the early Pick 5.Play: #6 Over and Ollie (7-2 ML)Picks: 6-2-4Race 4:The Wednesday Pick 6 kicks off with another $130k allowance event, but this one is at six-furlongs for older fillies and mares. #3 Senza Parole is expected to be a significant favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona after being nailed at the wire by late running Beauty Reigns in a similar spot last month. Trainer Chad Brown cuts the Gun Runner filly back from seven to six furlongs in hopes she can earn her first win since January. At her expected price, she will do so without me. I will try to run her down this time with #6 Strong State. The Al Stall Jr. trainee has been given a freshening after a big last-to first run over this surface on July 12 led to her third win over this surface in four career starts. He moves up in class, but finds another winnable spot at what should be a fair price.Play: #6 Strong State (7-2 ML)Picks: 6-3-5Race 8:My final play of the day comes in this state-bred second-level allowance event at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where #6 Nina Kay makes her third start of the form cycle for trainer Linda Rice. The first start came on August 2 when she was beaten to the front by odds-on gate-to-wire winner Hot Currency and was cost second when trying to take on the eventual winner at the top of the lane. #2 Grace and Grit got the best of her for the Place $$$ by a neck before Nina Kay won a four-horse race over the slop out of the Wilson chute three weeks later. Rice will try to strike while the iron is hot with this William Sinkler homebred that draws towards the outside for the first time in several starts. This should allow jockey Jose Lezcano to play the break, instead of having his hand forced much more with an inside post. Hopefully, it leads to this filly’s second win in a row at a much bigger price than a couple of weeks ago.Play: #6 Nina Kay (8-1 ML)Picks: 6-2-1

Breeders’ Cup prep season is in full effect, with many horses either having made or about to make their final starts before the World Championships are held at Keeneland in October. Each week, I’ll adjust my personal rankings accordingly based on races and news from the weekend prior. The juvenile divisions will enter the equation once the marquee summer meetings have concluded.Below you’ll find my rankings for nine of the Breeders Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order. Any changes made, whether they be additions / subtractions or new comments, are italicized.CLASSIC1 - Forever Young (last week: 1)• To be the man, you’ve got to beat the man; likely to prep in the Jockey Club Gold Cup at BEL before heading to Kentucky…the best in the world on dirt when on his game2 - Sovereignty (last week: 2)• The champ was back and arguably better than ever in the Whitney; may indeed be a Saratoga move up but that doesn’t preclude him from winning a race like the Classic at KEE3 - Magnitude (last week: 3)• If you forgive his Saratoga form he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney4 - Knightsbridge (last week: 4)• Devastated the G1 Pacific Classic, a field that was a G1 in name only; hard to find anyone to dispute his brilliance, but the question remains - can he reproduce that brilliance against the cream of the crop?DISTAFF1 - Nitrogen (last week: 1)• Ran arguably the best race of her career in defeat in the Whitney; outside chance she takes on boys again but strictly the horse to beat if she tackles the females in the Distaff2 - Counting Stars (last week: 2)• Defeated as the heavy chalk in the G1 Alabama; clearly not her best but not going to be overly reactionary…she’s still one of the favorites in this division when firing on all cylinders3 - Always a Runner (last week: 3)• The Kentucky Oaks winner is going to run in the Cotillion at Parx; may be of comparable ability to Counting Stars but down in the head-to-head battles4 - Fully Subscribed (last week: unranked)• Secured her first career G1 in the Personal Ensign, earning a 106 Beyer in the process; she’s failed before when tested against the best but has never regressed at any point in her career on the Beyer scale…may be peaking at the right timeSPRINT1 - Englishman (last week: 1)• The clear leader of the division after another devastating performance at Saratoga in the Allen Jerkens on Travers Day; Beyers of 115 and 117 as a 3YO entering the BC put him in rarified air for Cherie DeVaux2 - T O Elvis (last week: 2)• Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form3 - Book’em Danno (last week: 3)• Unfortunate to miss the Forego in which he’d have been an odds-on favorite; minor setback has him likely targeting a final prep at Belmont Park or Keeneland before attempting to tackle Englishman4 - Deep Flame (last week: unranked)• If not for the boss this would be a G1 winner entering the BC Sprint with a 110 Beyer in his back pocket…unfortunately that 110 was only good enough to get him beat by nearly four-lengths; getting better and better as part of one of the best 3YO sprint crops we’ve seen in yearsFM SPRINT1 - Kilwin (last week: 1)• Perhaps being a bit stubborn keeping her #1…didn’t think her second in the Ballerina was a bad effort, just ran into a horse for course and found herself way too far back early despite the hot pace; absolutely needs a step forward but hopefully that is still to come at Keeneland2 - Explora (last week: 2)• Filly had been screaming for a turn back all spring but stayed the Oaks course; since the turn back has looked like a monster…figs still light compared to the older fillies and mares but on the right path3 - Ways and Means (last week: 4)• Disrespectful to have her this far down after a blowout win in a G1 at Saratoga? Maybe…still think she’s a different animal at the Spa v. other venues; likely goes as the favorite for the FM Sprint in October off the 104 Beyer in the Ballerina4 - Mashallah (last week: unranked)• Someone needed to occupy the fourth slot…regressed on the Beyer scale winning a stake at CNL in early August but has three open-length victories to her name in four career starts; claim to fame is 106 Beyer earned on debut, which happened to come at KeenelandTURF | BERNIER'S VIDEO ANALYSIS THIS WEEK1 - Burnham Square (last week: 1)• His figs may be tapering off some but his win over course / distance this spring makes him a legit threat against all comers; a 107 Beyer in this race historically puts you right there at the wire. We'll see him vs. Ethical Diamond on Saturday at Kentucky Downs2 - Calandagan (last week: 2)• Bit of a leap with any of the Euros regarding who is / isn’t coming over; maybe not visiting the winner’s circle as much as he was in 2025 but still capable of firing elite-level shots at 12F3 - Benvenuto Cellini (last week: 3)• Has long been discussed as being the cream of the 3YO crop in Europe; first try against elders at Ascot was fine…nothing more, nothing less4 - Ethical Diamond (last week: 4)• The surprise winner of last year’s BC Turf (with a 107 Beyer) hasn’t had much of a campaign in 2026; stating the obvious - if he can get back to the Del Mar form he showcased last fall, he’s dangerous. Matches up with Burnham Square Saturday at Kentucky DownsMILE1 - Gstaad (last week: 1)• If not for the since retired Bow Echo, we may be looking at an unbeaten 3YO campaign comprised of four G1s to this point; already shown that American style of racing is no issue with last year’s BC Juvenile Turf win @ DMR2 - Blue Bolt (last week: 2)• She’s done little wrong in her career in Europe and has established herself as the clear leader of the filly and mare milers; Juddmonte filly would be extremely dangerous if she came over3 - Notable Speech (last week: 3)• Has been known to lay an egg from time to time but his North American record is quite strong; miserably unlucky at Keeneland in April, likely wins that G1 with any sort of racing luck4 - Deterministic (last week: 4)• Hasn’t lost a turf race since October 2024; five consecutive 100+ Beyers at distances ranging from 8F to 9.5F is no small feat…the best of the American bunch at the momentFM TURF1 - Thundering On (last week: 1)• Time hasn’t been kind to the form of the Epsom Oaks, however her turn of foot was electric that day; assuming she comes over, would have to think she’s in with a big chance for Joseph O’Brien2 - Diamond Necklace (last week: 2)• Defeated for the first time in her career, finishing behind Aventure in a G1 at Deauville; soft ground may not have been to her liking - willing to give a mulligan3 - Precise (last week: 3)• Another of AOB’s who is at the elite level; she’s not as good as Blue Bolt (and likely others) at the mile, so wonder if a stretch to FM Turf’s 9.5F @ KEE is in the cards4 - Kathynmarissa (last week: 4)• As solid as they come in the U.S., winning the G1 Diana at Saratoga in most recent start; race being run at 9.5F works to her advantage and she’s trained by Chad Brown, who has multiple FM Turf victories on his resumeTURF SPRINT1 - Cy Fair (last week: 1)• Has done nothing wrong in her career and exits a win at Saratoga that has already produced two next-out winners; a 3YO filly won this race last year. She's back in action Saturday at Kentucky Downs2 - Bacio (last week: unranked)• Devastating winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York for Wesley Ward over a highly-accomplished group; no fault with anyone saying he’s clearly tops, just still believe in the filly at #1’s ability3 - Shisospicy (last week: 4)• Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’s4 - John the Beer Man (last week: unranked)• Rejoins the list after Ag Bullet’s flop last weekend; runs this weekend at Kentucky Downs in the G2 Turf Sprint in what should be real test of classDIRT MILE1 - Knightsbridge (last week: 1)• Hard to imagine the connections not heading to the Classic despite having both he and Sovereignty but will remain a part of this group for the time being2 - Napoleon Solo (last week: 2)• Loses nothing in defeat finishing a gallant second in the Travers; coming up short in each of the past two would lead me to point to the Dirt Mile, but Classic remains an option for the connections3 - Bishops Bay (last week: 3)• Solid older veteran who probably isn’t a true G1 caliber runner, but depending on who shows up here…this may not be a race of true G1 caliber4 - Chunk of Gold (last week: 4)• Gave Bishops Bay all he could handle in the Iselin last weekend @ MON - perhaps a rising 4YO who could steal this at a decent number; owns a win over the course last fall by more than 8L