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10.10.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Saturday, October 10, 2026

By Xpressbet

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10.10.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Belmont Spot Plays | Saturday, October 10, 2026

By Scott Shapiro

Racing at newly renovated Belmont Park continues this afternoon in Long Island with an 11-race card that gets started at 12:05 PM eastern. The slate is headlined by a pair of stakes races on the lawn, including the Hill Prince (G3) for 3YOs. The card boasts a pick 6 carryover of $22,681 beginning in Race 6. Here are few horses I plan to wager on later today in New York, including my thoughts on both features.Race 5:I like a big price a bit in this six-furlong sprint for state-bred MSW foes over the main track since the runners expected to take the most public support are far from intimidating. I know #2 Themistocles was completely empty late in his debut at Saratoga in late August, but there is a case to be made that he can take a big step forward in career start number two. Firstly, he broke sharp from his inside draw, but just did not have the speed to go with the top few. Improved speed could have him in a favorable forward position early on. Plus, a much shorter-priced runner made the lead at the Spa, took the inside, and also had nothing left late when the real running started making me wonder if the rail was not the place to be at that point that afternoon. This colt gets a rider upgrade to Ricardo Santana Jr. for a barn that is not known for winning with first-time starters. A bit more speed from the gate and we could be in business at a big price.Play: #2 Themistocles (15-1 ML)Picks: 2-6-5Race 8: Bricks and MortarThe first of the aforementioned two turf stakes on the Saturday agenda is this seven-furlong dash for 3YOs named for the 2019 Horse of the Year. The race goes through 8-5-ML favorite #1 Two Out Hero. The son of War Front enters the spot after a runner-up effort at 26-1 in last month’s Franklin-Simpson (G2) at Kentucky Downs. The rail draw, his lack of speed, and expected regression make him tough to back as the chalk, so I took a shot against with Virginia-bred #8 Doubting Thomas. The son of Caravaggio stalked the slow pace of the eventual wire-to-wire winner of the Gio Ponti last out in his first start going long before tiring in the end, but should relish getting back to one-turn events since he has thrived at them throughout the early stages of his career. The outside draw should allow jockey Jorge Ruiz to stalk in the clear early and come up with a strong run late.Play: #8 Doubting Thomas (6-1 ML)Picks: 8-7-1Race 10: Hill Prince (G3)My top play of the day comes in this long-distance event for 3YOs over the Inner Turf where Nashville Derby (G2) winner #6 Caroline St. Beat was made the understandable 7-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona. The New York-bred had a very strong summer, but ran big twice in a short time span. Regression in this spot is certainly within the range of outcomes. I will try to beat the Tiz the Law colt with #2 Protect and Defend. Trainer Shug McGaughey is off to a great start at the new Belmont Park and this colt’s form was better than it looks prior to his two recent starts at Aqueduct and Saratoga. He won over a yielding course against a modest group of MSW foes on September 2, but it felt like a moment where the half-brother to Limited Liability put it altogether. The class hike is a real thing, but might be overstated by some horseplayers. Instead, I will rely on the fresher horse that draws well along the inside for a barn that has everything moving in the right direction recently. Hopefully, Protect and Defend continues to use his tactical speed to find a favorable forward position early. This would give him a big shot to get to the wire first.Play #2 Protect and Defend (8-1 ML)Picks: 2-6-4

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10.10.2026:

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Spot Plays | Saturday, October 10, 2026

By Al CImaglia

Northfield Park has a 15-race card featuring Ohio Fairs Championships. The Spot Plays are in Race 8, Race 9, and Race 12. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 8 (8:34 PM EDT)2-Lynn Range (9/2)-Faced some tough customers in the Buckeye Stallion Series Finals at Dayton on 10-3. That was the 1st start on Lasix and was stuck with post 9. Went off at a large price and nothing went right in race where a $102 horse took top honors. Tyler Smith tried to leave hard and was caught wide into the opening turn. Appeared rough gated, and came to almost a stop at the 1/2 pole. That was the only time Lynn didn't hit the board in 4 races at Nfld and has taken 2 pictures. Comes right back, gets a positive driver change in Dan Noble and will look for a bounce back effort at a solid price.2-7-3Race 9 (8:56 PM EDT)6-Liberty Biberty (9-1)-Price shot should offer a nice return despite being 1st time Aaron Merriman. The Jessica McCowen 3-year-old will likely be out and rolling. Appears to have enough gate speed to be forwardly placed. This will be a test, but is a competitive filly that could pop at a price with a smooth journey. Expecting Merriman to be well placed turning for the wire and to top the tough foes that start inside.6-2-3Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)6-Be Perfect BG (7/2)-The Anthony Beaton pupil has earned over $389,000 this year and didn't ship in from M1 to sight see. The post draw can help the price, and Dexter Dunn should do his part to put the Perfect Sting filly in play once the wings fold and comes off a strong win. Has raced at PcD and Mea and will bank on the connections knowing that the turns on the 1/2-mile Nfld oval will not be a problem. Gets a post edge on #8 Loua Dipa and can land on top or in the pocket behind #3 Sangria Summer the tepid 3-1 chalk. Dunn should be able to turn either trip into a picture.6-8-3Check me out on X!

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10.9.2026:

Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Exotics Price Players | Saturday, October 10, 2026

By Jeremy Plonk

Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.Hope you caught Friday’s Race 7 when our pair of longshot plays ran 1-2 with Cavali and Ferrous for an 80-1 exacta return.Race 4:#3 Dai Vernon (10-1 ML) – Finisher gets an excellent pace set-up to make a late move and bred to love the Kee dirt in his first local appearance by Good Magic. Should pair well with finishing rider Joel Rosario. Will be using with top pick Money Supply.Race 9:#5 Turner’s Charm (20-1 ML) – Trainer Brendan Walsh won last year’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup with Lush Lips and brings this Fall 2025 local course winner back to the scene. She got a 102 BRIS late pace figure in the Dueling Grounds Oaks in a better-than-looks third behind a slow pace.Race 10:#5 Ghost Scene (12-1 ML) – Top pick and a key for me on the card debuted a solid fifth with surprising speed at Churchill for an Ian Wilkes barn that’s rarely that sharp first out. Got back working 13 days later with a noticeable uptick in workout time and appears to have bounced out of the debut great. Sire Street Sense continues to produce strong numbers with his Kee dirt performers.

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10.9.2026:

Matt Bernier: One for the Money | Keeneland's QE2 Stakes on Saturday

By Matt Bernier

This race is unlikely to have any Breeders’ Cup implications in a few weeks' time, but it doesn’t make Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Cup Challenge at Keeneland any less appealing – particularly from a gambling standpoint. Eleven three-year-old fillies plan to line up and battle over nine furlongs, with the morning line favorite being this year’s King’s Plate winner, Luster.There’s plenty to sink your teeth into in this year’s QEII Cup Challenge. Below you will find my fair win odds for each of the runners scheduled to compete as well as my thoughts on some of the key contenders.1 – Haute Diva 2% / 49-12 – Luster 14% / 6-13 – Tam Tam 18% / 9-24 – Faithful Departed 20% / 4-15 – Turner’s Charm 2% / 49-16 – Braida 7% / 13-17 – Storm’s Wake 9% / 10-18 – Lookin At Diamond 11% / 8-19 – Kensington Lane 7% / 13-110 – Deep Learning 7% / 13-111 – Soloist 3% / 32-1This race became far more interesting from a betting perspective when it was announced that Kentucky Belle, who would have been a heavy favorite, was being freshened for a four-year-old campaign. Her defection leaves favoritism up for interpretation, but my inclination is that FAITHFUL DEPARTED (4) will be the post time favorite when all is said and done. A three-year-old daughter by Yoshida, Faithful Departed has been slightly unlucky in her last two starts, each of which resulted in runner-up efforts. In the Belmont Oaks, the Grant Forster trainee was compromised by a dawdling pace, finishing nearly two-lengths behind the loose pacesetter, Kensington Lane (who also runs here on Saturday). Then, in the Saratoga Oaks, Faithful Departed made the first move from the back of the pack, blitzing to the front – only to be chased and grounded down by the aforementioned Kentucky Belle. Faithful Departed hasn’t run since August, but there’s no reason to think she won’t fire a big shot on Saturday.TAM TAM (3) is already a grade one winner, taking the Del Mar Oaks over this distance in Southern California. The Phil Bauer trainee had a dream trip on August 22, sitting just off Kensington Lane before tipping out and finishing strongly down the lane. Another lovely trip figures to come her way in the QEII, but there’s no denying the water gets considerably deeper against this bunch. She may well end up vying for favoritism on Saturday on the heels of the G1 victory. If there was one concern for the daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, it would be that she’s already been defeated on the square by both Faithful Departed and Storm Wake, the latter of which has already won over the Keeneland turf and figures to be a much better price.As for LUSTER (2) - there's really nothing to knock about her form. Trained by Josie Carroll, the three-year-old filly took Canada’s Kentucky Derby over the summer at Woodbine in authoritative fashion. Sent off as the .25-to-1 favorite, the daughter of Knicks Go dominated, prevailing by more than seven lengths in the end. She's displayed wonderful versatility throughout her career and, perhaps mostintriguing of all, she’s already shown that the Keeneland turf is to her liking. The five-length victory in her three-year-old debut should allay any fears that she’s simply a synthetic specialist. It’s hard to fully project how she’ll be played at the windows, as she’s been the betting favorite in each of her last four starts. Against this caliber of competition, however, I wonder if she floats up some from the 5-2 morning line she’s been assigned.I believe these three fillies are the likeliest winners of Saturday’s QEII, but I’m going to go in a different direction at a much more appealing price. LOOKIN AT DIAMOND (8) ships in from Kentucky for trainer Leo Powell and, although the California shippers rarely have success on turf in Kentucky, this filly appears to be set to fire a career top in this spot. A daughter of Lookin At Lucky, Lookin AtDiamond saved every inch of ground throughout the majority of the Del Mar Oaks on August 22 before firing home in a big way. Beneath Julien Leparoux, Lookin At Diamond logged her final 3/8ths in 34 and 3/5ths seconds - a time that was 2/5ths of a second faster than the final 38ths of winner Tam Tam. Considering this was her first run since June, I'd like to think she’s going to take a step forward in her second start of the form cycle. If you needed another positive for this filly, look no further than her female family; her older sister, Diamond Wow, was a winner over the Keeneland turf during her racing career. She’ll need a bit of pace to run at (which I believe she’ll get), but if she does, Lookin At Diamond is worth a look at a price in Saturday’s Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup.THE PICKS: 8-4-3-2THE PLAY:8-LOOKIN AT DIAMOND TO WIN AT ODDS OF 8-1 OR GREATEREXACTAS: 3,4 / 8

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10.9.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Friday, October 9, 2026

By Xpressbet

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10.9.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Breeders' Cup Bankroll Selections for Friday, Saturday, Sunday

By Scott Shapiro

Some great October promotions have been a theme for my writing the last few days and that continues today when the second week of our Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder commences later this afternoon. The promo allows 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers to earn a $5 bonus for betting $25+ on select races leading up to the World Championships at the end of the month. Head to the promotional landing page to register if you have yet to do so and for more details. Here are my thoughts on each of the three stakes events included in the Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder over the next few days.Friday: Sycamore (G2), Keeneland Race 9:The feature later this afternoon in Kentucky is this $400k 12-furlong affair over the Keeneland grass where #2 Just a Touch was made the 5-2-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The son of Justify has won 3 of 4 since trainer Brad Cox moved him to the grass earlier this year, but the lone defeat came when facing Grade 2 foes like he does at 5:16 PM eastern. The fact he won his only start over this course in April, draws favorably along the inside, and lures Irad Ortiz Jr. are all positives, but he is likely to at least be somewhat involved in what should be a contentious early pace.I respect the favorite, but cannot back at him at his likely price, so I will try to beat him with #8 Tiz Dashing. The son of Tiz the Law is one of just a handful in this field that does no exit an arduous race for a huge purse at Kentucky Downs, which has always seemed to be an overall positive at the Keeneland Fall Meeting. The Barclay Tagg trainee got a confidence boosting win against allowance foes last out after a mid-pack finish when against the flow in the Kelso (G3) in early July. Javier Castellano returns to ride the 4YO colt.Play: #8 Tiz Dashing (9-2 ML)Picks: 8-2-7Saturday, California Flag, Santa Anita Race 9Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Bankroll Builder race is this $100k event for Cal-breds down the Hillside Turf Course named for the 2009 Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint winner goes through 6-5-favorite #1 Lonesome Slew. The son of Grazen has proven form over this course for Mark Glatt and meets a somewhat suspect field of fellow state-breds. It would be difficult to bet against the chalk in this spot if the race appeared to have more speed signed on and he did not draw the rail. However, both of those things make it difficult to get excited about betting on Lonesome Slew despite being the likeliest winner.#6 Big City Lights has been a dirt horse throughout his career and a solid one at that for Hall of Famer Richard Mandella. I rarely like to bet dirt horses trying the turf later in the career with the expectation that they will be as fast or faster on the green, but in this case the price should be right to gamble on this son of Mr. Big that ran better than looks in his lone turf start last year at Del Mar in the Stormy Liberal. The slow start from the rail and wide move did he him no favors, but at his ML offering I am willing to give him another shot, especially with the move to an outside post down the hill.Play: #6 Big City Lights (9-2 ML)Picks: 6-1-7Sunday, California Distaff, Santa Anita Race 9The final crack this week at the BC Bankroll Builder is in yet another race for Cal-breds down the beautiful Hillside Turf Course. This time it is for the ladies where I will try #10 Liberation. The 3YO takes on older runners for the first time, which is always a big challenge, but trainer John Sadler is having a strong meet and this gal should sit a stress-free trip in the clear a few lengths off an honest early pace. Her lone turf effort came in late August when she went two turns at Del Mar against open company foes and went far too fast early from her inside draw. Hopefully, she is able to relax on the cutback in distance and move to an outside draw.Play: #10 LiberationPicks: 10-4-7

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10.9.2026:

Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Exotics Price Players | Friday, October 9, 2026

By Jeremy Plonk

Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.Race 2:#11 Harborcoat (12-1 ML) – In a race with very little positive form to evaluate, newly gelded second-timer was a decent-enough fourth of 10 vs. similar at Churchill in his debut while showing early interest.Race 5:#12 Aopotheon (15-1 ML) – Bill Mott trainee gets to stretch is legs for the first time with a pedigree to do so if he handles the turf. Employs the classic Jeff Siegel “two sprints to a route” form cycle that’s had much success over the years as a handicapping angle.Race 7:#4 Cavalli (10-1 ML) – Flightline first-timer cost $625K and has had a long, consistent workout pattern on the Tapeta at Turfway for the debut. Walsh-Gaffalione one of Keeneland’s most potent pairings.#6 Ferrous (12-1 ML) – One of my key bets on the card has shown surface versatility through 3 starts and could be ready deliver for Rodolphe Brisset, who popped a winner here Thursday and 2 seasons ago dominated Week 2 for the Fall Meet with 4 winners, aiming for these spots in the condition book that are slightly easier than opening week.Race 10:#9 Big Luz (20-1) – first-time starter for a Kenny McPeek barn that had big success during Week 2 of last year’s Fall Meet with 4 winners, and posted a Week 2 winner here yesterday.

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