Log In

Expert Picks

10.30.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Breeders' Cup Championship Saturday Full-Card Selections / Analysis

Championship Saturday is just hours away at this point. Nine Grade 1 events with Eclipse Awards up for grabs and the best in the world competing for massive purses. What more could a horseplayer ask for?Winners I suppose, along with at least six $2 exactas to help you earn your share of the $15k up for grabs during the Saturday portion of our $25,000 Exacta-Thon promotion. Check out my Friday blog or the promotional landing page for more details. So, without further ado (pun intended), here is how I see the full 12-race Breeders’ Cup World Championships card that gets started at 11:15 AM eastern.Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: BUse: 4 Knicks Diamonds; 7 Bourbon NeatForecast: The Breeders’ Cup undercard kicks off with this MSW event for 2YOs at seven-furlongs over the main track where I like second-time starter #4 Knicks Diamonds. The son of Knicks Go broke sharp on debut before being taken in hand by jockey Francisco Arrieta to sit mid-pack. The Matthew Sims trainee remained outside throughout, which was not ideal over the October 2 surface before putting in a solid late run to earn third. The Jerome Russell homebred has every reason to move forward with the start under his belt and the added furlong. Sims may not be a household name, but he is capable and does a strong job with the stock he gets. Hopefully, he gets overlooked in the wagering in the first leg of the early Pick 5.Race 2:Grade: B-Use: 4 Harmoniously; 5 VirabhadrasanaForecast: This second-level allowance event for 2YO fillies at seven-furlongs over the main track goes through 5-2-ML favorite #9 Right in Time. The Riley Mott trainee won easily on debut in gate-to-wire fashion over this racetrack, but is likely to have to deal with a lot more company in the early stages in her first try versus winners. So, I will use a pair of runners I expect to sit a few lengths off the early proceedings. #5 Virabhadrasana regressed last out against allowance foes after a win going away to break her maiden at Saratoga. She should get the right trip, as should top pick #4 Harmoniously. The Cherie DeVaux trainee broke on top and went to the lead on debut at Ellis Park in late August, but I expect different tactics under Jose Ortiz. She finished well in her upset victory at first asking and should have no issue with the added ground. A perfect pocket voyage is possible and would make her tough to beat.Race 3:Grade: BUse: 2 Steeze/11 Saudi Crown; 1 BoothForecast: This third-level allowance event at 6.5-furlongs over the main track could easily be a stakes race. 5-2-ML favorite #11 Saudi Crown has competed in almost all stakes events over the last couple years and has put together quite a resume earning over $3.7M for trainer Brad Cox. The 6YO son of Always Dreaming is likely to sit a favorable stalking voyage over a racetrack he is 2 for 2 over, but is almost certain to get over bet by the public. I will use him underneath, but focus my wagering on #2 Steeze. The son of Vekoma takes on the toughest group he has encountered thus far and needs to prove he can perform as well without the anti-bleeding medication Lasix, but I love the way he comes into the race. He is one of the stronger finishers in this group and should get a ground saving, mid-pack voyage under Junior Alvarado.Race 4: Filly & Mare Sprint (G1)Grade: B-Use: 5 Foie Gras; 11 Explora; 12 Kilwin/7 Evanescence; 6 Majestic OopsForecast: #2 Ways and Means is the understandable 7-5-ML favorite in the first of nine Breeders’ Cup races to close the afternoon. The Practical Joke mare comes in having won 2 of 3 in 2026, including a dominant victory in the Ballerina (G1) when we saw her last. If she runs to her races at Saratoga, they are running for second, but the potential good news for those looking for value is that she has yet to run as fast elsewhere. Couple with that a potentially dirt-filled trip down on the inside and it feels like a good chance to take a swing against the chalk.A number of runners appear live with #11 Explora one of the likeliest winners. The problem is the early pace could be quick, which brings horses like #6 Majestic Oops, #7 Evanescence, and #12 Kilwin into the mix. That said, I am hopeful to get a perfect stalking trip with longshot #5 Foie Gras. The Mike Maker trainee has done very little wrong through five starts in 2026 and comes in off an easy victory at 6-5 in the Pink Ribbon at Charlestown. Veteran Joel Rosario takes the mount.Race 5: Turf Sprint (G1)Grade: B-Use: 12 Sorrento Sky; 10 Cy Fair/3 Bacio; 13 Starlust; 5 Time to DazzleForecast: #3 Bacio enters the Turf Sprint with a 5 for 6-record with his lone loss coming by a half-length in career start number two at Santa Anita last fall. He has been training well and is the one to beat on paper, but this race could play out far differently than others he has been in given the serious speed to his inside and immediate outside. If Juan Hernandez can avoid getting caught up in a potential early tussle, the Maclean’s Music colt is in with a big chance, but that is a big “if” in this full-field event at 5.5-furlongs, so I will take a swing against at his 5-2-ML offering.I almost landed on the 3YO filly #10 Cy Fair, who deserved better in her sixth-place effort at odds-on at Kentucky Downs in September, but will have to put forth a career best run chasing a fast pace to do so. Instead, I went with late running #12 Sorrento Sky. The 5YO gelding has always been honest, but struggled to win races at the stakes level. That changed this summer when he came with a last-to-first rally to win the Green Flash (G2) before backing it up with a score in the Eddie D (G2). Jockey Umberto Rispoli has a challenge to avoid significant ground loss, but at least he should avoid traffic issues. The price should be right to gamble for a late collapse.Race 6: Dirt Mile (G1)Grade: B-Use: 7 Bracket Buster/11 Iron Man Cal; 3 Full SerranoForecast: #1 Further Ado is likely to take a ton of public support in this year’s Dirt Mile given his connections, resume, and success over this surface. He is another horse that obviously can win, but is likely to take far too much public money for me. I prefer #7 Bracket Buster. Many will look to his loss at Parx at odds-on last month and come to the conclusion that this class level is a bit much for the Vekoma colt, but I thought he ran fine in the Parx Dirt Mile and just ran into a horse that got the jump and forgot to stop. Unlike many in this group, the 4YO has been pointing to this race for awhile now and should relish the two-turn one-mile configuration at Keeneland. Johnny V is back to ride after being aboard in each of his last three starts.Race 7: Filly & Mare Turf (G1)Grade: CUse: 8 Jancis; 12 Blue Bolt; 3 Classic Q; 4 Red LetterForecast: Horses based outside of the United States have dominated this event of late, including Gezora a year ago. I do not see that changing in 2026 where #12 Blue Bolt is the clear one to beat, but has to answer distance questions. The same is true for second choice #11 Precise. Both European-based fillies bring incredibly strong resumes in, but their likely price makes them tough to endorse with confidence. I took a swing instead with #8 Jancis. The 5YO mare makes her second start in North America after a neck loss to #1 Gimme a Nother in the E.P. Taylor (G1) in Canada in September. She and #4 Red Letter are the international runners that could get overlooked in the wagering making them intriguing alternatives to the favorites.Race 8: Sprint (G1)Grade: XUse: 13 Englishman/11 T O ElvisForecast: I have no desire to get creative in this year’s Sprint given the presence of #13 Englishman and #11 T O Elvis. In a vacuum, Englishman is the fastest horse in this race and training like he is ready to run another big one. The caveat is there is a lot of speed signed on to his inside. The outside draw should benefit the 4-5-favorite, but he could get caught wide throughout battling with some other serious sprinters. This would pave the way for T O Elvis. The Churchill Downs (G1) winner has not raced since his upset score on Derby Day, but has been pointed to this race and appears to be coming into it ready to fire another big shot. I would be surprised if one of the two top choices get to the wire first.Race 9: Mile (G1)Grade: B+Use: 8 Notable Speech/12 True LoveForecast: Trainer Charles Appleby has won this race 4 of the last 5 years and has a massive shot to win yet another. Appleby sends out last year’s winner #8 Notable Speech. The Godolphin homebred has won 3 of 5 since his off-the-pace score at Del Mar, including a strong run in the Woodbine Mile (G1) last month. The 5YO gelding appears to be as good as ever and should get a great setup with regular rider William Buick back aboard in hopes of adding to his record four wins in the Breeders’ Cup Mile. I am not betting against him doing so.Race 10: Distaff (G1)Grade: BUse: 4 Fully Subscribed; 6 Measure/3 RegaledForecast: I was disappointed by the scratches of #5 Scottish Lassie and #8 Splendora in this year’s Distaff because prior to their omission this was my favorite betting race of the weekend. I still like it, but am not as confident in the pace being fast early. It should still be honest though, which should bode well for those who can settle early and finish.#4 Fully Subscribed is for the most part race shape independent given her tactical speed, but is best off with an honest early tempo. This would allow Flavien Prat to settle mid-pack and get a significant jump on the closers. If the pace is as hot as I originally suspected, #6 Measure is very live to pick up the pieces at a price. The daughter of Essential Quality has just one win on her resume, but is a strong finisher that benefits with the nine-furlong distance more than others. She should be finishing well, as should #3 Regaled. The concern with the Whit Beckman trainee is that she is far better over an off-track. Fortunately, it looks like the weather will be good for Championship Saturday.Race 11: Turf (G1)Grade: CUse: 2 Benvenuto Cellini; 13 Bay City Roller; 12 Diamond Necklace; 1 Ethical Diamond; 7 Hotazhell; 9 Johanna Walsh; 10 TiffanyForecast: As you can see from my grade and the number of runners I am using in this year’s Turf, I lack a strong opinion other than I do not anticipate a runner from the United States hitting the wire first. I went with #2 Benvenuto Cellini on top given his post and rider, but obviously #12 Diamond Necklace and #13 Bay City Roller merit major respect as well. Do not snooze on last year’s winner #1 Ethical Diamond. He will not be 27-1 again, but could be a double-digit offering when the bell sounds.Race 12: Classic (G1)Grade: C+Use: 4 The Puma; 5 Forever Young; 2 Sovereignty; 7 KnightsbridgeForecast: All three favorites in this year’s Classic offer strong cases for why they will win the lion’s share of the $7M purse. #5 Forever Young’s resume speaks for itself. The son of Real Steel has won 12 of 16 for over $32M, including last year’s event out west. He also benefits from the scratch of #6 Magnitude. This should allow him to sit a few lengths off what might be a more moderate pace than it appeared earlier in the week. #2 Sovereignty put on a show at the Spa in the Whitney (G1) when we saw him last, but not only has he not raced since, but he missed some training along the way. The fact he is racing is a bullish sign for me. We know his best is good enough. #7 Knightsbridge is almost certain to be the biggest price of the three, but clearly benefitted most from the defection of Magnitude. I do not think he is a true ten-furlong horse, but if the pace is moderate that aids his chances of finishing the deal.I had a difficult time separating the favorites and do not find any of them appealing options at their likely off-odds, so I will build my wagers around a price instead. #4 The Puma ran a career best race with the addition of blinkers in the Pennsylvania Derby last month. He overcame a wide middle move and still came home strong under jockey Javier Castellano. I wish there was a guaranteed fast pace, but this is the colt that offers the best value opportunity since he did not compete in the Triple Crown this spring and appears to be peaking at the right time.

Read Article
10.30.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Friday, October 30, 2026

1/ST BREEDERS’ CUP WAGER GUIDENow available | full coverage of all 14 divisions | free accessEXTRA INCENTIVES$25,000 Exacta-Thon | Breeders’ Cup at KeenelandSCHEDULE NOTESBelmont | early first post 11:40 am ETKeeneland | early first post 11:55 am ETGulfstream | early first post 12:05 pm ETSPECIAL WAGERSAdvance full-card wagering on Breeders’ Cup Saturday availableCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 9-10, Santa Anita Races 4-5-6Sunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 8-9-10, Santa Anita Races 7-8-9Kentucky Derby Future Wager | pool closes today 4 pm ETTOURNAMENT TIME$10,000 Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge | KeenelandNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPlace Pick 8 | $20,153 | Gulfstream | begins Race 3 | 1:15 pm ETPick 6 | $18,380 | Belmont | begins Race 5 | 2:00 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $67,065 | Gulfstream | begins Race 5 | 2:25 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $52,676 | Charles Town | begins Race 3 | 8:02 pm ETKEY RACESKeeneland | Race 3 | 1:05 pm ET | TAA StakesBelmont | Race 6 | 2:35 pm ET | Athenia StakesKeeneland | Race 6 | 2:55 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf SprintGulfstream | Race 6 | 3:05 pm ET | Our Dear Peggy StakesKeeneland | Race 7 | 3:35 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup Juvenile FilliesKeeneland | Race 8 | 4:15 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies TurfKeeneland | Race 9 | 4:55 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup JuvenileKeeneland | Race 10 | 5:35 pm ET | Breeders’ Cup Juvenile TurfGulfstream | Race 10 | 5:48 pm ET | Cellars Shiraz StakesDelta Downs | Race 8 | 8:56 pm ET | Louisiana Jewel StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXLaurel | Race 5 | 2:20 pm ETKeeneland | Race 6 | 2:55 pm ETBelmont | Race 9 | 4:35 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBob Baffert | Keeneland | 4 of 5 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Laurel | favorites won 6 of 10 racesPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carurlli: Keeneland Early Pick 5 Analysis for Friday1/ST BET All-Stars: All-Stakes Pick 5 Ticket for Breeders’ Cup FridayScott Shapiro: Breeders’ Cup Future Stars Friday Exacta-Thon PlaysFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section

Read Article
10.30.2026:

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Spot Plays | Friday, October 30, 2026

Hoosier Park has a loaded 14-race card, and the $0.50 Late Pick 4 has a $20,000 guaranteed pool with a low 12% takeout. The headliners are 3-year-olds battling in Grand Circuit action. The Spot Plays are in Race 11, Race 12, and Race 13. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 11 (9:43 PM EDT)4-Dan D Man Can (4-1)-The 3-year-old has some breaking issues but was sharp in the last 3 races starting on Oct 9 after going on Lasix. Can win on the engine or coming off cover and is in a good spot to get an efficient trip. Big Ranger drew post 6 and could go off as an odds-chalk, after fading down the lane in the BC Final. If the very talented 3-year-old is dialed on high, he should be posing. But this is the 1st start at HoP, some horses do well at first asking on this surface, and others don't. The Erv Miller pupil has done good work at HoP (22-9-6-0). Atlee Bender should be racing near the top of the stack and D Man could be peaking at the right time.4-6-7Race 12 (9:20 PM EDT)8-For Dayze (9/2)-The Roger Welch pupil likes to win and does well at HoP (22-12-7-2). The last time she finished worse than 2nd was 6-27 when it cashed a 3rd place check. The post helps the price and John De Longe can take a picture if she is close to the leader at the top of the lane. The position around the opening turn is key because the fractions could be hot and can be the best down the lane with a sharp steer.8-5-3Race 13 (10:06 PM EDT)5-Loua Dipa (9/2)-The Ron Burke 3-year-old has posted 6 wins in 12 starts this year and makes it Hoosier Park debut. Versatile filly out of Sweet Lou does well on a large and small ovals. Comes off a tough trip, was hung the mile in the BC Elim and left from post 8. Also, had post 8 at Nfld 2 back, and before that won 3 straight at Dela including the Jug. Draws the choice post this time and pilot Ronnie Wrenn could look to leave and make every call a winning one at a fair price.5-9-8Check me out on X!

Read Article
10.29.2026:

Breeders’ Cup Today | Thursday, October 29, 2026

1/ST BREEDERS’ CUP WAGER GUIDENow available | daily updates | free access> New: 1/ST Call Podcast> Updates after scratches to Distaff, JuvenileIN THE NEWS TODAYF&M Turf | Blue Bolt worked 3 furlongs (turf) in 40.20Classic | Magnitude has scratchedDistaff | Splendora has scratchedF&M Sprint | Nooni and Praying have scratchedF&M Turf | Eccentric has scratchedJuvenile | Earth Song has scratchedJuvenile Turf | Man’s Best Friend has scratchedJuvenile Fillies Turf | Serena’s Ghost has scratchedWEEKEND FORECAST FROM WEATHER.COMFriday | Sunny, 76 degrees high (5% chance of rain)Saturday | Cloudy (2% chance of rain), 71 degrees high> as of Thursday 4:00 pm ETGET IN THE GAMEExacta-Thon | $25,000 additional money up for grabs Friday/Saturday at 1/ST BET & XpressbetPODCASTS THIS WEEKJeremy Plonk & Scott Shapiro | Post Draw ReactionsBailey Armour & Scott Shapiro | Horse Cents Friday HandicappingJeremy Plonk & Scott Shapiro | 1/ST Call Saturday HandicappingFACT OF THE DAY FOR THURSDAYFavorites have won 36% of stakes races on dirt since Keeneland returned to a natural surface in Fall 2014. During that same timespan, stakes favorites on turf have won 33% of the races.

Read Article
10.29.2026:

Matt Bernier: One for the Money | Saturday's Breeders' Cup Turf Analysis

The Breeders’ Cup Turf is one of horse racing’s great events – both in terms of prize money and prestige. As one of the richest races in North America annually (purse of $5M), it’s no surprise to see entrants come from all over the world to contest the 12-furlong trip each Breeders’ Cup weekend. This year’s event may lack the genuine superstars we’ve seen in years past, such as Enable, Daylami, and Pebbles (to name a few), however it’s loaded with capable runners who will offer generous prices on race day. Below you will find a brief comment on all fourteen runners set to tangle at Keeneland on Saturday, followed by my selections and how I plan on betting the race.1–Ethical Diamond – 12% / 7-1 fair win oddsThe winner of last year’s Turf looks to have a real chance of going back-to-back for trainer Willie Mullins; prep at Kentucky Downs should have set him up beautifully for this run at Keeneland2–Benvenuto Cellini – 7% / 13-1 fair win odds-This year’s Irish Derby winner hasn’t gotten any better over the second half of his 3YO campaign; Aidan O’Brien always dangerous in spots like this and Ryan Moore stays aboard; certainly can win but almost assuredly an underlay in the win market3–Minaret Station – 6% / 16-1 fair win oddsAn underrated runner for Will Walden’s barn, Minaret Station is in career form; biggest obstacle has always been soundness and ability to stay on the track, but a steady campaign this year has him primed for a respectable showing against the toughest he’s ever seen; 1-for-1 at KEE with a graded stakes win under his belt4–Far Bridge – 3% / 32-1 fair win oddsInititially sounded as if the trainer wanted to run against softer, but the ownership may have had other ideas; multiple G1 winner has credentials but would need everything to break his way to hit the board5–El Cordobes – 3% / 32-1 fair win oddsTrainer Charlie Appleby has won this Turf on multiple occasions and this runner was a good third in last year’s running; perhaps needed the race at Belmont off the lengthy layoff but Appleby didn’t sound overly impressed with the performance; needs a career best6–Burnham Square – 9% / 10-1 fair win oddsDisastrous effort at Kentucky Downs in September, but maybe with an excuse given the oppressive heat; has only had two other chances to rally from off the pace going 12F – a 9+ length win at Keeneland in April and a 4+ length win at Churchill in May; his 107 Beyer in the Elkhorn would be good enough to go close here…you just need to decide if you think he can do that against international powers7–Hotazhell – 6% / 16-1 fair win oddsIf the race were contested over 10F this guy may be the favorite given his recent form; 12F a major question, but if you think he can handle it (especially in America) then he’s likely an overlay in relation to his level of talent8–Test Score – originally 3% / 32-1 fair win oddsScratched due to fever.9–Johanna Walsh – 6% / 16-1 fair win oddsTough call on many fronts, as lone try against older fillies and mares was a disaster – although that preceded a freshening; gets in light as a 3YO filly for all-world trainer Joseph O’Brien; O’Brien wouldn’t run her here if he didn’t think she had a shot, even if only a marginal one10–Tiffany – 10% / 9-1 fair win oddsStateside debut was a smashing one, earning a 107 Beyer in Kentucky Downs Turf Cup victory for Sir Mark Prescott; no reason to think she won’t run credibly here, and wouldn’t be too worried about the 7L loss to Bay City Roller last fall, as that race came over a bog and Bay City Roller is a mud lark; assuming she can save some ground she’s absolutely viable here11–Survie – 6% / 16-1 fair win oddsThe winner of the Christophe Clement at Saratoga in August, the George Boughey trainee hasn’t shown that sort of winning form against quality European competition in years; Prat takes the mount, reuniting with her following their victory together in the Glens Falls at the Spa; not impossible to hit the board but not crazy about her, either12–Diamond Necklace – 13% / 7-1 fair win oddsTecnhically would regard her as the “most likely winner” – but not by much; very credible third in the Arc last month, albeit with the benefit of the 3YO female weight break; Soumillon stays aboard the four-time G1 winner who must be respected, even with a tough outside draw13–Bay City Roller – 11% / 8-1 fair win oddsJust ahead of Diamond Necklace when second in the Arc at nearly 40-1 for George Scott; undoubtedly better over ground with cut in it, however he’s a classy runner who has repeatedly shown he can compete anywhere; another contender mired with an outside draw who will need some racing luck in order to prevail14–Deep Monster – 5% / 19-1 fair win oddsBrutal draw going three turns at Keeneland; has multiple races on Thorograph that would indicate he’s far from impossible, but his race may have been lost at the post draw; another who would be best used underneath, if at allSELECTIONS6 – Burnham Square 1 – Ethical Diamond 3 – Minaret Station 10 – TiffanyWAGER$1 Trifecta Box – 1,3,6,10 = $24

Read Article
10.29.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Breeders' Cup Future Stars Friday Exacta-Thon Plays

Happy Breeders’ Cup racing fans! The World Championships are almost upon us at Keeneland, so it is time to think about how to budget your bankroll for this year’s event given the plethora of options on the wagering menu. Horizontal wagers offer horseplayers a shot at a massive payday with vertical wagers also offering a potential week or month making score. Forgetting the obvious Win bet though is often a mistake made in search of the four or five-figure score. I advise mapping things out ahead of time in order to maximize your strongest opinions.One of the wiser options to consder for the two days could be playing exactas since this allows 1/ST BET and Xpressbet customers to take a shot at our $25,000 Exacta-Thon Promotion. Most of you know by now, but the goal of the Exacta-Thon is to connect on as many $2 exactas as possible over a given card with the main goal being at least six over the course of the program. There is $10k total up for grabs on Friday with $7500 being split amongst those who connect on six exactas. The other $2500 goes to the player(s) that hits the most. The ante is upped to $15k on Championship Saturday with $10k being split amongst those who connect on at least six. Here are a few exactas I plan to make a part of my shot at the Exacta-Thon on Future Stars Friday.Race 7: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1)The wagering in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies is expected to center around two undefeated runners. #10 Emphatic enters a perfect 3 for 3 with a pair of two-turn races under her belt, while #5 Miss Monica is 2 for 2, but must prove herself at a route of ground still. I prefer Emphatic simply because I lack trust in Miss Monica’s ability to thrive as the distances get longer, but the question is where to find value.#2 Domain Expansion has some upside coming off her win in the Oak Leaf (G2) out west, but is expected to be the third choice, so I will lean on a pair of Kentucky-based runners instead to play with Emphatic. #3 Foxiest has more to prove than #8 Manuka Honey, but both come in off wins in elongated one-turn races at Churchill Downs. Foxiest is bred to be a star being by Gun Runner out of champion mare Covfefe and showed serious energy late in her maiden win after having to find running room in the lane. She is less trustworthy, but her 15-1-ML makes her worth including. Manuka Honey has passed all three of her tests with flying colors so far for trainer Brian Lynch. The big question is stamina since her pedigree does not point to two-turns being her game. I will key Emphatic with these two gals in hopes of knocking one down in the Exacta-Thon.Play: Exacta Key Box 10 with 3+8Picks: 10-8-3Race 8: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1)European based runners have won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf in three of the last four years, including in 2025 with Balantina. They have a huge chance again in 2026 given the quantity and quality they send out. The contingent is led by Aidan O’Brien conditioned #9 Sun Goddess. She has never travelled longer than seven-furlongs, but brings the strongest resume in with six wins and close to $1.3M in earnings. I wanted to try to beat her since she is expected to take a ton of public support, but the international markets love for her makes it tough for me to disagree with the confidence of her connections and those who know her best.I will tread a bit lightly from a wagering perspective in this one keying Sun Goddess on top of a pair of well-drawn Euros in hopes of connecting on another exacta. Both #1 Green Empress and #3 Curracloe drew favorably along the inside. This should allow them to save ground before coming with their run, while I am concerned about second choice #10 Amusingly getting caught wide with the short run into the first turn. Green Empress has never been worse than second in five starts, while Curracloe ships in from Ireland after two easy wins for trainer John Murtagh. Both should get the right trip in their first Stateside start.Play: Exacta 9 with 1+3Picks: 9-3-1Race 9: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1)Bob Baffert and Todd Pletcher are familiar with getting to the wire first in this 1 1/16-miles event for 2YOs. Baffert has won the event six times with Pletcher nipping at his heels after winning it last year for the fifth time with Ted Noffey. Both veteran trainers send out two colts a piece in this year’s Juvenile with Baffert holding the stronger hand going in with even-money favorite #5 Hughes and #3 Salahudin. They are a combined 7 for 7 with Hughes being given far more respect for his four wins. The even-money favorite is the one to beat, but do not sleep on Salahudin. The son of Uncle Mo is still learning and has not figured out the gate issues yet, but has massive upside. He has been training forwardly and should run huge in his first start at two-turns. Both Baffert’s are major win threats.Pletcher’s top threat based on the morning line and public sentiment is #6 American History. The son of Constitution won impressively on debut sprinting at Saratoga before taking advantage of a battle on the front end in his off-the-pace victory in the Breeders’ Futurity (G1). It is hard to knock an undefeated horse, but I am willing to let American History beat me. However, Pletcher’s other runner has a big shot to pick up the pieces at a juicy price. #1 Damavand ran a better than looks fourth on debut after breaking a bit slow and chasing a gate-to-wire winner at the Spa before taking advantage of a pocket trip on October 4. The $1M son of Not This Time has not competed against stakes foes and did not break his maiden in dominant fashion, so his 20-1-ML price should stick. That said, he was very professional over this oval at this distance 26 days ago and is bred to love two-turns. The Keeneland September ’25 purchase should get a great trip once again given his inside draw. I like his chances to grind out a minor share.Play: Exacta 3+5+7 with 1Picks: 3-1-5 For complete Breeders' Cup weekend coverage, access our free 1/ST BET Breeders' Cup Wager Guide.

Read Article
10.29.2026:

Frank Carulli: Breeders' Cup Future Stars Friday Early Pick 5 Analysis at Keeneland

All eyes will be on the Breeders’ Cup World Championships on Day 1 this Friday, Oct. 30. But don’t lose sight of the early Pick 5 wager at Keeneland that features four fields with 10 or more entrants, hence a potential big payout for bettors who solve the sequence. The action begins at 11:55 EST, three hours before the 2-year-olds take center stage in the Breeders’ Cup.Keeneland, Race 1 (11:55 EST) Morning-line favorite EMERGING MARKET was 3- to 5-wide throughout in a 1-1/8-mile allowance two starts back and couldn’t reach Wynstock, a winner in 4 of his last 8 starts with 94-plus Beyers. ADMIRAL DENNIS is our top choice, having won his only stakes race at this distance off similar rest in the inaugural Delaware Derby. He stalked the favorite through fast fractions, forged command at the top of the stretch and ran away from the others. He fired two bullet works leading up to this race.Keeneland, Race2 (12:30 p.m. EST) HONOR IS MINE debuts for this year’s Kentucky Derby and Belmont winning team of trainer Cherie DeVaux and jockey Jose Oritz, who also joined forces to win with three of their last 11 first-time starters at 6-1, 7-5 and 21-1 odds. AT FULL SAIL makes the ticket at 15-1 on the morning line. His multiple graded stakes-winning sire, Constitution, ranks in the Top 20 in 2-year-old earnings this year and his dam, Sailor’s Valentine, was a first-out runaway winner at Keeneland and won the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes on her next start here. NIOSA is a deserving favorite. She took aim at the pace-controlling debut winner but settled for second best in a 6F sprint that timed 1/5 slower than a six-figure allowance for 2-year-old boys on the same card.Keeneland, Race 3 (1:05 p.m. EST) You know this one-mile turf stakes is wide open when two entrants listed at double-digit odds are coming off stakes wins, another was G-3 placed in England and another is 2-for-2 with a six-figure allowance victory. Hit the ‘ALL’ button in Leg 3.Keeneland, Race4 (1:40 p.m. EST) GHAZAALY is confidently placed, considering he was a three-time vet scratch since his last start in early June. He should be well-suited to 6-1/2F with two wins, a second and a third in one-mile allowances this year (92 average Beyer). CORNWALL BOSS buried a weak MSW field at Delaware Park, but he looked good with an explosive burst in the final eighth en route to an 89 Beyer in his seasonal debut. CAMPOBOSSO is blazing along in the morning workouts for Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, fresh off a game maiden victory at 6F. He dueled inside of recent stakes-placed rival Tagermeen at this distance two back and ‘fought on’ to finish second, ahead of stablemate Big Jake, who came back to win by 7-3/4 lengths with a 95 Beyer.Keeneland, Race 5 (2:05 p.m. EST) McCOY broke sharp in his debut, backed off a fast pace until he re-engaged the leaders on the turn, took command at the top of the stretch and held safe three next-out winners at this distance. He returned from Parx to his home base in Kentucky and reeled off four fast workouts. He has enough speed to salvage perfect stalking position from post 11 and repeat as today’s Pick 5 solo play.Suggested Pick 5KEE 1st race: 1, 5KEE 2nd race: 3, 5, 6KEE 3rd race: ALLKEE 4th race: 4, 7, 10KEE 5th Race: 11Cost for 50-Cent Ticket: $108

Read Article
10.29.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Thursday, October 29, 2026

1/ST BREEDERS’ CUP WAGER GUIDENow available | daily updates | free accessFree Betmix past performances now availableEXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Laurel Park | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSSuper Hi 5 | $4,886 | Churchill Downs | Race 3 | 1:58 pm ETPick 5 | $11,992 | Laurel | begins Race 6 | 2:23 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $47,326 | Charles Town | begins Race 3 | 7:57 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXLaurel | Race 1 | 12:00 pm ETBelmont | Race 8 | 4:47 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 10 | 5:24 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHTim Kreiser | Penn National | 4 of 5 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Breeders’ Cup Betting Challenge | registration deadline extended to 2 pm ET todayPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section

Read Article
Load More