By Jeremy Plonk
Kentucky’s first of two 100-point majors en route to the 152nd Run for the Roses takes place Saturday at Turfway Park. The Grade 3 $777,000 Jeff Ruby on the Turfway synthetic precedes next month’s Grade 1 Blue Grass at Keeneland on the dirt.Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds as well as the Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play the $3,000 Exacta-Thon involving both full cards.Let’s meet the contenders for the Jeff Ruby (Race 12):#1-TURF STAR: Last year’s Bourbon Stakes runner-up disappointed in Gulfstream’s Kitten’s Joy in his only start at age 3. Graham Motion has saddled 3 Jeff Ruby winners in the synthetic era, led by 2011 Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom (also Adriano ’08 and Went the Day Well ’12). Jockey John Velazquez won this race in 2012 and 2014, the former teamed with Motion. The 1-for-5 colt tries blinkers for the first time after racing exclusively on turf to this point.#2-FULLEFFORT: Potential favorite rallied for second in the John Battaglia Memorial and the Leonatus Stakes already this meet. Brad Cox looks to go back-to-back in this race after Final Gambit a year ago and become the fourth different trainer to win it in consecutive years (Mike Maker, Graham Motion, William Adams). Irad Ortiz Jr. rides here and bypasses the mount on Cox-trained Autobahn in the $1 million Louisiana Derby. Ortiz last rode Fulleffort in an October turf allowance victory at Keeneland, his only prior pairing. He piloted Field Pass to win this stakes in 2020.#3-BAYTOWN DREAMER: Already this year has a 112-1 longshot fourth in the John Battaglia Memorial and 84-1 third in the Smarty Jones at Oaklawn. Exotics exploder trained by Paul McEntee will be ridden by Orlando Bocachica once again. He’s won just 1 of 11 and looks to snap a 7-race losing streak, but has a bullet local workout March 7 for this.#4-TWO OUT HERO: Canadian raider had a rough trip from the far outside post 11 in the John Battaglia Memorial and tired while pursuing wide to finish ninth. That was his first start in 5 months. Returned to South Florida’s Palm Meadows winter base between starts and fired a bullet there March 14. War Front colt won last year’s Soaring Free and was third in the Grade 1 Summer behind Jeff Ruby return rival Argos. Local rider Gerardo Corrales replaces Rafael Hernandez for Woodbine leading conditioner Kevin Attard.#5-BLACK HORNET: Fair Grounds’ Black Gold Stakes winner seeks a third straight win while changing surfaces to synthetic for the first time. The former Brad Cox trainee disappointed in 4 maiden dirt attempts but found a home on grass. Brendan Walsh trains the son of multiple champion Essential Quality. Declan Cannon rode for the first time in the Black Gold and returns in the saddle.#6-MEDICI: California shipper led every jump but the last in a nose defeat in the Feb. 22 Pasadena Stakes. Veteran Richard Mandella and regular rider Mirco Demuro team with this Into Mischief home-bred who is 1-for-6 and a Dec. 29 maiden breaker at Santa Anita. West coasters like Endlessly (2024) and Blended Citizen (2018) have had some rather recent success in this race.#7-MAXIMUS PRIME: The late-running, 88-1 third-place finisher in the John Battaglia Memorial has improved in all 3 starts at the meet but remains an 0-8 maiden. Anthony Mitchell trains this Maximus Mischief colt, who gets Joseph Ramos back in the irons after a solid debut pairing for them last out.#8-CHAOS AGENT: Most lightly raced member of the field won his Feb. 5 debut at Gulfstream Park on the Tapeta surface and takes an immediate leap in class. The $350,000 Independence Hall colt overcame a tough trip to win that debut at 11-1 and now lures jockey Joel Rosario for Canadian-based trainer Josie Carroll. Dam Into Oblivion also won her debut (2014 at Del Mar) but never won again in a 10-race career.#9-BRAVE FORCE: Co-owner Jack Oxley already has Oaklawn-based Silent Tactic firmly on the Derby trail and looks to add depth with his Feb. 29 sixth-start maiden breaker. Brave Force improved in recent starts with Lasix, but won’t have the medication by rule on Saturday. Trainer Jack Sisterson and jockey Vincent Cheminaud combine with this $145K son of Gun Runner.#10-ARGOS: Last year’s Grade 1 Summer Stakes winner changes barns from Riley Mott – who won last week’s Virginia Derby with Incredibolt – to trainer Brad Cox. The well-traveled runner was eighth in traffic in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf and was a flat fifth in his 3YO return at Gulfstream in the Colonel Liam on turf. Cox and Luan Machado seek back-to-back wins in the Ruby after Final Gambit a year ago. Machado came into the week virtually tied with Walter Rodriguez in the pursuit of the leading rider crown at the TP meet. Cox is in a similar dogfight atop the trainer standings with Kelsey Danner and Mike Maker nipping at his heels.#11-STARK CONTRAST (pictured): Michael McCarthy won this race 2 years ago with west coast raider Endlessly and looks for an encore with this highly credentialed son of Caravaggio. Stark Contrast finished second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf at Del Mar, sandwiched between a Zuma Beach score last fall at Santa Anita and his Jan. 8 return win in the Eddie Logan at The Great Race Place – all of that resume built on turf. Kazushi Kimura has ridden in all 5 starts.#12-STOP THE CAR: The only all-dirt performer in the Ruby lineup, Brendan Walsh’s Maximum Security colt has won 2 of 3 starts. The Keeneland and Churchill 1-turn winner last season didn’t get involved Jan. 17 in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds when a flat seventh. Edgar Morales takes the mount for the first time.
By Scott Shapiro
Last weekend was the last light one in terms of Triple Crown preps until we get to the Lexington at Keeneland in mid-April. New Orleans and Northern Kentucky take center stage this Saturday afternoon presenting the biggest cards of their meet with Florida and Arkansas waiting on deck for a pair of monster Kentucky Derby prep cards on March 28. So, without further ado, let’s dive into this week’s edition of “Prep School.”Horse That Made the Biggest Impression Last Weekend: IncrediboltIn last week’s edition of Prep School, Riley Mott-trained Incredibolt was listed as the horse with the most to prove. A week later, the connections of the Bolt d’Oro colt have to be thrilled with what they saw from their 3YO on Saturday in Virginia after the dud in the Holy Bull (G3). Incredibolt relaxed professionally between rivals in a bit of a tight spot early just a few lengths off the lead. Jockey Jaime Torres remained patient on the Pin Oak Stud runner most of the way before diving inside mid-stretch and dominating from there. The path from here to Louisville is a tricky one given the seven-week break, but regardless Incredibolt did all he could last weekend to remind us how good he was at Churchill Downs last fall. It will be interesting to see if Mott can have him ready for his best off a longer break that most on the first Saturday in May.Horse That Provided Best Value in Future Pool 5: Reagan’s HonorOne could argue that most horses offered at least some value when Kentucky Derby Future Pool 5 closed on Sunday evening since no horse went off below odds of 8-1. That said, there were certainly a few noticeable underlays seven weeks out from this year’s Run for the Roses beginning with Virginia Derby winner Incredibolt. I was impressed with the aforementioned Riley Mott trainee, but recency bias was on full display sending him off at 16-1. I was also surprised the public made Nearly the co-third choice at 12-1. From my calculus, he has to beat Commandment and Chief Wallabee in the Florida Derby (G1) or else is almost certain to be double-digit odds in the Kentucky Derby. I have him as the third likeliest to do that.The horse that clearly offered the most value was Reagan’s Honor. Sure, the Cherie DeVaux trainee has to run first or second in the Blue Grass (G1) to earn a spot in the starting gate, but this is a wager about ceiling and getting horses you like into the race at significantly higher prices than they are on race day. If Reagan’s Honor wins the Blue Grass, he will be between 8 to 10 to 1 on Derby Day. Winning what appears to be the strongest prep heading in will be a tall task, but he has unlimited ceiling for a barn that has a trip to the Derby winner’s circle in their future.For those keeping score, my final wagers in this year’s Future Pools are below. Obviously, adding a horse late hurts my overall value since only one runner can cross the wire first, but this just felt like too good of a price to not include Reagan’s Honor in my limited portfolio.Pool 3 KDFW:1-unit Cannoneer (24-1)1-unit Renegade (37-1)Pool 4 KDFW:1-unit Blackout Time (32-1)Pool 5 KDFW:1-unit Reagan’s Honor (38-1)Horse With the Most to Prove This Weekend: Emerging MarketThe Louisiana Derby (G1) and Jeff Ruby Stakes (G3) are the points races this weekend on the Road to the Kentucky Derby leaderboard with an obvious answer to the horse with most to prove. Chad Brown conditioned Emerging Market busted on the Derby trail in early February posting a big number on all metrics in his two-turn maiden debut victory at Tampa Bay Downs. At the time, it appeared to be a super live race on the Sam F. Davis undercard with the top two runners besting the rest of the field by more than 13 lengths in the end. However, the hard trying runner-up that day Powershift came back to put forth an absolute clunker in the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) making folks wonder just how good the victory will prove to be. Brown sends the Candy Ride colt to New Orleans where he will not be anywhere close to his 6-1 ML price in the premier race of the meet at Fair Grounds. The outside draw and move up into stakes company will present obvious challenges for the Klaravich Stables colt, but this is not a strong edition of the Louisiana Derby. In fact, the victor is unlikely to see much action at Churchill Downs, unless maybe Emerging Market wows us. Chad Brown has Paladin waiting to run at Keeneland as one of the current favorites. The New York-based trainer could find himself with a strong 1-2-punch in this year’s Kentucky Derby if he gets a big run from this colt on Saturday. A modest effort and the plans will change.
By Xpressbet
EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Parx | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $164,088 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETPick 5 | $7,884 | Mahoning Valley | begins Race 4 | 1:39 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $148,890 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 3 | 5:12 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXParx | Race 7 | 3:22 pm ETWill Rogers | Race 9 | 5:02 pm ETTurf Paradise | Race 7 | 7:10 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHRobertino Diodoro | Turf Paradise | all 4 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Will Rogers Downs | jockey David Cabrera | 3 wins from 6 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk | Parx Bet $100, Get $10 Tuesday PicksFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Jeremy Plonk
The “Lucky Strides” promotion this March at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet offers a $10 bonus when you bet $100 or more at select tracks each Tuesday and Thursday. Parx will be the track spotlighted for this Tuesday. Here’s how I’ll approach that card with the help of the Betmix Angler database.Parx: Race 4#2 Fuhgeddaboudit (4-1 morning line odds) makes a notable jockey change to Ruben Silvera. Note that 17% trainer Elliott Soto-Martinez is 8-for-12 (67%) at Parx when teaming with Silvera – and the rider comes off a 3-win Monday with just 4 mounts on this card. Mare has had slow breaks in her last 4 starts and if the new pilot gets her away quicker, look out. Win bet #2.Parx: Race 6#8 Capital Conquest (8-1 morning line odds) goes for that same lethal Ruben Silvera / Elliott Soto-Martinez jockey-trainer combo that’s 8-for-12 at Parx since the start of 2025. Makes a jockey change from previous starts and it’s the second start after a claim for the new barn. Certainly looks more effective on a fast track than wet, so eye the conditions to measure confidence, but I’d take a shot on any surface given their tandem success. Win-place bet #8.
By Jeremy Plonk
The $1 million Louisiana Derby tests Triple Crown hopefuls over 1-3/16 miles and provides a mix of the local stakes establishment against some of the most successful national outfits from Florida and California. It’s the last of 7 stakes on a 14-race program that begins at 1 pm ET.Horseplayers with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet take advantage of up to a $10 money-back special promo on Triple Crown prep race win bets, featuring Saturday’s Louisiana Derby at Fair Grounds as well as the Jeff Ruby at Turfway Park. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Also play the $3,000 Exacta-Thon involving both full cards.Let’s meet the contenders for the Louisiana Derby (Race 12):#1-PAVLOVIAN: Santa Anita-based road warrior exits a nose victory in the Sunland Derby in New Mexico last month. That win snapped a 7-race losing streak for the Reddam Racing home-bred who competes for 2-time Kentucky Derby winner Doug O’Neill. Edwin Maldonado has the return mount on the California-bred son of Pavel.#2-AUTOBAHN: Third-start maiden braker stretched out nicely to 1-1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park on Feb. 21 and makes his stakes debut Saturday. Brad Cox trained 2024 Louisiana Derby winner Catching Freedom, adding to his 2020 victory by Wells Bayou. Marcellino Pedroza gets the mount as Irad Ortiz Jr. opts to ride at Turfway on Saturday. Son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist.#3-CHIP HONCHO: Gun Runner Stakes winner will be the only horse to compete in all 4 Louisiana Derby series races, adding a fourth in the Lecomte and second in the Risen Star most recently. Trainer Steve Asmussen won this race last year with Tiztastic, his record fifth Louisiana Derby score. Luis Saez returns to ride the Connect colt, who rematches a third time here with Golden Tempo, splitting previous decisions.#4-UNIVERSE: Saratoga debut winner has dropped 5 straight, including a no-threat fourth in the Risen Star over this track last month. The $75K son of Global Campaign has kept top-class running lines and posted a bullet local workout for this on Saturday. Kenny McPeek saddled 2002 Louisiana Derby winner Repent. Brian Hernandez guided Girvin to Louisiana Derby glory in 2017.#5-GOLDEN TEMPO: Lecomte Stakes winner and Risen Star third-place finisher will add blinkers for the first time. Trainer Cherie DeVaux had her Curlin colt working in company with Blue Grass-bound stablemate Reagan’s Honor while experimenting with the hood. Jockey Jose Ortiz comes into the week a runaway leader in the standings as he defends his title as leading jockey. He’s also won a current meet-best 8 stakes races with 13-27 in the exacta.#6-SPIRIT OF ROYAL: Trainer Dallas Stewart won the 1999 Louisiana Derby with Kimberlite Pipe. He’ll be a big longshot to end that 27-year drought when this 62-1 Southwest Stakes ninth-place finisher takes another big bite of the apple. Francisco Arrieta comes in from Oaklawn to ride this 1-for-7 son of Global Campaign (same sire as Universe in this field).#7-BLACKSMITH: The Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up took 5 tries to break his maiden, getting the job done Feb. 20 at Santa Anita as the 3-5 chalk. Bob Baffert’s lone Louisiana Derby success came with Wimbledon in 2004. Florent Geroux, who left Fair Grounds earlier this year to tack up at Santa Anita, rode him to the west coast win and makes a homecoming of sorts Saturday. The $525K son of Liam’s Map makes his first start on the road.#8-EASTERLY: Gulfstream Park maiden breaker Feb. 7 in his second start gets his first stakes test, but note he debuted second to Class President, who exited that race to win an allowance and Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes. Trainer Brad Cox’s second chance in this field at notching a third Louisiana Derby score since 2020. Gulfstream rider Edgard Zayas retains the mount and makes a rare road appearance.#9-EMERGING MARKET: Fast and determined debut winner Feb. 7 at Tampa Bay Downs on the Sam F. Davis Stakes undercard. Outlasted promising Powershift for Todd Pletcher, though that one bounced badly next out when sixth in the Tampa Bay Derby on 2 weeks’ less rest. Chad Brown seeks a first Louisiana Derby score, finishing third here in 2024 with Tuscan Gold. He’s raided Fair Grounds to win the Risen Star in ’24 with Sierra Leone and last month with Paladin. Flavien Prat won this race in 2003 with Kingsbarns and 2024 aboard Catching Freedom.
By Xpressbet
NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $140,760 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $131,090 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 3 | 5:11 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXFair Grounds | Race 3 | 2:45 pm ETWill Rogers | Race 8 | 5:34 pm ETTurf Paradise | Race 6 | 6:39 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBret Calhoun | Fair Grounds | 3 of 4 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Sunland | trainer Todd Fincher | 3 wins, 1 second, 2 thirds from 6 startsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section
By Xpressbet
Yonkers Raceway has a 10-race card. The $1.00 Pick 5 with a $10,000 guaranteed pool rolls in Race 5. The $1.00 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 7, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 7 (8:45 PM EDT)1-Mossdale Ben N (2-1)-Did win 2 back versus the Invites. faced the same again, drew the 8 hole and finished 5th by a length. The rail may not best suit its race style but meets easier and is the best horse in the field. Should be good enough to go 1st over, if necessary, and still take a picture.Race 8 (9:05 PM EDT)1-Captain Moore A (7/2)-Drops, gets post relief and Yannick Gingras sticks. Doesn’t usually show big gate speed but has a pilot that will put in a position to win. Fits and can beat the 4 foes by coming off the pace.3-Verdun (8-1)-This will be the 3rd race off the bench and put in a strong try last week. Was blocked down the lane and that probably cost it a 2nd place finish. Came 3rd right behind Jumpingjackmac. Pat Lachance could show some gate speed and be on top or in the pocket after the opening turn. If so, he could work a winning trip and hopefully won’t be bet down.4-Jumpingjackmac N (5/2)-The veteran raced well in both starts versus Invites after the Holiday break. That was a bit of surprise and finished 2nd both times and was 31-1 in the 1st start. Could be the chalk tonight and will respect chances in a competitive affair.Race 9 (9:25 PM EDT)2-Jett Star N (8-1)-It’s fair to say this is a good group of $30K claimers trying to establish themselves as winners at the $40k claiming level. Makes the first start for the Grasso barn off a claim and in the past 365 days that outfit is 1 for 2 after a claim. Went off at 9/5 and beat the $30K claimers in last, with a 54.2 back half. Will string along, especially at the program price and look for another win, up a claiming level.7-Lyons Benjamin (5-1)-The 5-tear-old likes winning, took 10 pictures in 34 races in 2025 and this season has 3 wins in 6 starts. Comes off 3 straight victories, and this post draw helps the price. Matt Kakaley has gate speed to use and could post another win with a smooth steer.Race 10 (9:45 PM EDT)2-All Alone (7/2)-This will be the 3rd start since 11-17 and does well when racing near the top of the stack. Brent Holland should be able to get a good early seat and be the best down the lane.4-American Dealer N (2-1)-The 9-year-old makes its 2nd start for new owners the Burke brigade. Out raced its 19-1 odds last time and finished 3rd by less than a length. Draws well and Gingras will probably look to be aggressive off the gate. The veteran doesn't win as often these days but should have a big chance for a picture here.$1 Late Pick 41/1,3,4/2,7/2,4Total Bet=$12Check me out on X!
By Xpressbet
SPECIAL WAGERSKentucky Derby Future Wager | closes 6 pm ET through SundaySunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 8-9-10; Santa Anita Races 7-8-9Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 7-9-10; Santa Anita Races 5-7TOURNAMENT TIME$40 Gulfstream Feeder | details$40 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $57,617 | Tampa Bay Downs | begins Race 4 | 2:09 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $214,154 | Gulfstream | begins Race 5 | 2:49 pm ETPick 6 | Oaklawn | $25,432 | begins Race 4 | 3:05 pm ETPick 5 | Fonner | $29,376 | begins Race 3 | 3:24 pm ETCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | $119,874 | Gulfstream/Santa Anita | begins GP Race 7 | 3:52 pm ETSunset Pick 6 | $47,000 | Gulfstream/Santa Anita | begins GP Race 8 | 4:23 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | Gulfstream | Race 10 | 5:25 pm ETPick 6 | $32,101 | Santa Anita | begins Race 4 | 5:36 pm ETKEY RACESSanta Anita | Race 7 | 7:06 pm ET | Santa Ana StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXTampa Bay | Race 7 | 3:41 pm ETFair Grounds | Race 5 | 3:45 pm ETSanta Anita | Race 7 | 7:06 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHRon Moquett | Oaklawn | 5 of 6 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Gulfstream | jockey Edgard Zayas | 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third from 9 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Gulfstream Mandatory Payout Pick 6 Analysis for SundayScott Shapiro: Carryover Pick 6 Santa Anita Sunday AnalysisBrian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section