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4.17.2025:

Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Spot Plays | Thursday, April 17, 2025

Racing continues on Thursday afternoon in the Blue Grass where Keeneland has a solid 9-race card that kicks off at 1PM ET. Included on today’s slate are a quartet of maiden special weight races for 3YOs. I will focus on three of those.Race 2:The first of the MSW events on the Thursday agenda is for 3YO fillies at two-turns on the lawn where oddsmaker Nick Tammaro understandably made #4 Double Jeopardy the 5-2-morning line choice. The Bass Stables homebred put forth a better than looks second on debut at Gulfstream Park last month for Todd Pletcher. Pletcher is off to a slow start to the meet and this one is likely to need to get out of the gate a bit better to get to the wire first, but she put in a strong late run in that March 9 start besting the entire field outside of the gate-to-wire winner. The Uncle Mo filly appears to have talent, but the tote board will reflect that.Hopefully #1 Snipsnippitysnip takes far less money. The Girvin filly failed to make an impression in either of her starts over the Gulfstream sod this winter, but really had no shot last out when forward horses dominated from start-to-finish. The $155k OBS April 2024 purchase has been given almost 3 months by trainer Brendan Walsh. Walsh is pulling all the right strings of late on his way to yet another strong Keeneland spring meet. I like the move to Jose Ortiz, as well as the rail draw. Hopefully, she breaks well off the freshening.Play: #1 Snipsnippitysnip (10-1 ML)Race 4:An auction restricted MSW for males is up next at 6-furlongs and I like second-time starter #9 Flick. The Army Mule gelding debuted at Fair Grounds on March 20 and things do not go well for the Michael Tomlinson trainee. He broke slowly from his inside draw and then found traffic issues when in a tight spot trying to move up along the rail. The Diamond F Racing runner moves to an outside draw in his second lifetime try for a barn that sports a $3.08 ROI at Keeneland over a 191-race sample size. I expect a strong run.Play: #9 Flick (12-1 ML)Race 6:I am going to go back to the Brendan Walsh barn in this 7-furlong affair for protected 3YO maidens. #2 Clicquot was hammered down to even money favoritism in her debut at Gulfstream Park back on March 1. The Quality Road filly did not break that well, moved up the inside to battle early, and understandably tired late. I am willing to forgive the disappointing run as the chalk not only because the trip in general was a poor one for a young filly, plus she was racing along the inside on a day where the outside was the place to be. She comes in off a pair of strong drills over the surface and should be poised to bounce back in a big way.Play: #2 Clicquot (6-1 ML)

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4.17.2025:

Jeremy Plonk: Saturday's Preakness Preview Day $2,500 Hit & Split Analysis for Laurel

It’s Preakness Preview Day on Saturday in Maryland as Laurel Park hosts several key prep stakes towards the third Saturday in May. Bet the late pick 4 with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet and play for your share of an additional $2,500 in cash. The Laurel $2,500 Hit & Split will be on Races 9-12, including the Federico Tesio Stakes, an automatic qualifier for its winner to the Preakness.Race 9 | Weber City Miss StakesBlack-Eyed Susan Stakes hopefuls match up in this 1-1/16 miles race around 2 turns. The $450,000 Curlin filly Reply lived up to her odds-on billing in her March 14 debut at Colonial Downs during the Virigina Derby flash meet. High-percentage trainer Brittany Russell benefits from the rail draw as this Repole Stables runner moves from 1-turn to 2-turn racing and should relish it. While it may appear a big step up in class, the previous stakes in this series, the Beyond the Wire, was won by a 17-1 former claimer and there’s not a lot of stakes-proven experience in the lineup. Parx-based raider #5 Hollywood Beauty has plenty of stakes on the docket, but has struggled in routes.Race 10 | $100,000 Henry S. Clark StakesThe recently opened Laurel turf course will be in business for this prep to Preakness Day’s Dinner Party Stakes. The one-mile event drew 10 entries, 4 of which will be making their first starts of the calendar year. That’s been a norm and successful path in this race over the years, so if you like a layoff horse, don’t fret. The inside pair and a couple of others should insure a solid early pace and give the late runners every chance. #3 Fulmineo is a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf alum for Arnaud Delacour and winner of the Jimmy Murphy on Preakness Day last year as a 3-year-old. It’s his first bid against elders, but should match up well after wintering at Tampa with a promising workout pattern for the return. #4 Neat won Keeneland’s Grade 3 Transylvania last year (pictured above, inside), Saratoga’s Grade 2 Hall of Fame and last traveled to Santa Anita in March with a respectable showing in the Grade 1 Kilroe Mile. Unquestioned class for this Rob Atras trainee and a Laurel course winner in his maiden breaker in October 2023. Old school trainer Shug McGaughey got an old school allowance prep into #6 Signator at Tampa Bay Downs last out and the Tapit 5-year-old stormed from last to win by a head behind a fast pace. Jockey Samuel Marin, who has turned heads at Tampa, makes the road trip.Race 11 | $150,000 Federico Tesio StakesMile and one-eighth races around this track of the same circumference can be tricky for outside runners with a very short run into the clubhouse turn. As solid as #9 Pay Billy was in winning the Private Terms here last month, he may be vulnerable at an underlay price against a much tougher field this time. #1 Surfside Moon saves all the ground and exits a solid second in the Withers over this same distance, beaten only by eventual Wood Memorial fourth-place finisher Captain Cook. #5 Kentucky Outlaw is the total X-factor. This unbeaten colt has rolled through 2 starts at Parx for a mom & pop operation that’s got a good one on their hands for just $12,000. His races and long-legged stride suggest 9F might be a winner for him.Race 12Nine claimers – with eight wagering interests due to a coupling of #1 Kick Startness and #1A Walk Away Joe – match up over 1-1/16 miles to close the sequence. The Jamie Ness entry makes for a strong early and late-place combination if both run. #6 Mr Jefferson makes a proper class drop and should be effective at this level, but 3-for-32 lifetime is no obvious rush to concede to him. #7 Supreme Song fits the conditions of the race nicely and seems well-spotted. He’s been competitive in Kentucky, Ohio and Pennsylvania and should transfer here fine.The Ticket1 with 3,4,6 with 1,5 with 1/1A,6,7 = $9 for 50 cents

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4.17.2025:

Frank Carulli: Santa Anita Hollywood Meet Opening Day Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, April 18, 2025

Live racing returns to Santa Anita this week for the Hollywood Meet. The Friday, April 18 card features a 50-cent Late Pick 4 with a closer look and suggested $36 ticket below.SA 6th race (6:39 p.m. EST) -- The 2-3-4 finishers from a February 28 mile under the same conditions reunite. SHARED FUTURE led by a nose in the final furlong but drifted inward and ran second, while JUBILANT JOANIE raced wide throughout and ran fourth as the 1-to-2 favorite. New shooter SEISMIC BEAUTY from the Bob Baffert barn also failed as an odds-on choice for a second time in a long sprint. QUICK BROWN FOX is the top choice, overcoming early trouble to break her maiden off an 11-month layoff for a 26-percent ‘repeat’ barn. That race was on the turf, but she has a photo-finish setback in her debut on the main track to summon and a string of five solid morning preps since then.SA 7th race (7:09 p.m. EST) -- Speedball KISSED BY FIRE runs for an $80,000 claiming price, having already conquered this condition in wire-to-wire fashion the last two times she ran in non-stakes on turf. But she might have to find a passing gear with PUSHINESS (4-9, $292k) starting to her outside. If a torrid pace battle ensues, GRANNY BUDGIE could spring an upset. She won three 6F turf sprints overseas as a 2-year-old, rallied to win a $100,000 allowance on the Santa Anita lawn in her second U.S. start and ran into early stretch traffic last out when third behind next-out stakes runner-up Just Nails.SA 8th race (7:39 p.m. EST) -- ZIMBA WARRIOR benefited from a rapid pace and overpowered the pace-setting favorite for a repeat victory at one mile. He also romped in his first start for trainer Jesus Uranga, giving him six wins at one mile that account for nearly half of his $313k bankroll. J.B. BOOKS is a viable longshot to use on the ticket. He was unsettled at the start, spotting the field several lengths, then he steadied in traffic while advancing in-hand on the backstretch. He swung widest on the turn and flattened out in the stretch. CROWN MAGIC negotiated post 10, made an eye-catching run on the turn and out-dueled a resurgent KINGMEISTER in a blanket finish. KINGMEISTER made a quick 3-wide move on the turn but couldn’t clear the leaders, setting the stage for the stretch battle.SA 9th race (8:09 p.m. EST) -- FLYOVER debuts at age 4, but he has the bloodlines, work tab and connections to win. His sire, Om, was multiple Grade I-placed with $1.2 million in turf earnings; his dam, First Class Flyer, was a wire-to-wire Maiden Special Weight and allowance winner in her two starts on the grass. Trainer John Sadler has three wins and five seconds from his last 24 first-time starters on the lawn, half of whom were dismissed at 6-1 odds or less. Sadler used to train LORD DUNMORE, who looms a major threat from the rail for new trainer Ryan Hanson. He starts fresh off two strong workouts on the all-weather track and can maximize his speed in this field. He stumbled at the start and recovered to run second to wire-to-wire winner Targaryis, who came back to finish second in a $50,000 optional claimer. If CURLIN COMMAND (#9) draws in off the also-eligible list, add him to the Pick 4 ticket.Suggested 50-Cent TicketSA 6th Race: 1, 3, 5SA 7th Race: 2, 4, 5SA 8th Race: 1, 2, 7, 9SA 9th Race: 1, 2 (add #9 if he draws in)Cost: $36

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4.17.2025:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Thursday, April 17, 2025

EXTRA INCENTIVES$10 Money-Back Special | Fraser Downs Races 3 & 4 today | up to $10 back if win bet finishes 2nd, 3rd | Dawn Lupul PicksTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | $21,551 | Aqueduct | begins Race 3 | 2:16 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $16,555 | Gulfstream Park | Race 8 | 4:30 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY KEENELAND WINNERKeeneland | Race 6 | 3:40 pm ET | #4 Shewontbudge (31%)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 5 | 3:08 pm ETGulfstream Park | Race 8 | 4:30 pm ETEvangeline Downs | Race 1 | 6:30 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHChad Brown | Aqueduct, Keeneland | all 4 entrants 5-2 or less morning lineDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Keeneland | jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. | 3 wins, 1 second from 5 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Thursday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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4.17.2025:

Fraser Downs Money-Back Special Picks from Dawn Lupul | Thursday, April 17, 2025

Western Canada’s premier harness track, Fraser Downs, is back and better than ever! Racing continues through Thursday, May 1. Get your cash back, up to $10, in TWO races each Thursday of the spring meet -- Races 3 & 4. Want to play it safe or risk it all on a longshot? Whatever you choose, you’ll get your cash back every week, up to $10, if the horse you bet to win comes in 2nd or 3rd.To assist your handicapping, Fraser Downs local expert handicapper Dawn Lupul provides her full-card picks for the card.Thursday, April 17R1- 3,6,8R2- 3,2,4R3- 1,8,5R4- 2,1,7R5- 5,2,3R6- 3,4,2R7- 5,4,3R8- 6,1,8Race 5 Pick 4 – 5/3/4,5/1,6,8

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4.16.2025:

Race of the Week: Saturday's $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap

The Lead:The mid-south's premier race for older horses, the $1.25 million Oaklawn Handicap, provides one of the season's final destination races of the winter-spring meeting in Hot Springs, Ark. The Grade 2 test over 1-1/8 miles goes as Race 11 on the card and the field of 8 includes the winners of the series' most-important preps, the Essex and the Razorback, as well as its defending champion.​Field Depth:Grade 2 winners include SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING, RED ROUTE ONE and FIRST MISSION. Also note DISARM, ALEXANDER HELIOS and BANISHING are Grade 3 winners, the first of those is Grade 1-placed. TARANTINO is multiple Grade 2-placed. The match up similar in terms of class though SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING has faced the strongest schedule over time.​​Pace:BANISHING may be fastest early in this group, but TARANTINO and ALEXANDER HELIOS will be right in the mix with SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING and FIRST MISSION not far from the tempo. This should be an above-average to fast pace and give late runners a reasonable chance if they fire.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.#1-GO WEST GO : Maiden claiming graduate is just 1-for-5 and clearly the overmatched, ranked outsider in this field for trainer Boyd Caster. Has sprinted in all 5 starts.#2-DISARM: Local allowance winner 5 weeks ago when coming off a September layoff, this consistent sort has been just shy of the upper levels in multiple previous chances. Excellent post and fast pace in front of him provides every opportunity.#3-FIRST MISSION : Ace stakes rider Flavien Prat takes the controls for the controls for the first time on the 2024 Essex winner and 2025 Razorback third-place finisher. Favored last out when by a neck in his first start since August and could build off that at a juicier price. Mixed results at this distance while 1-1/16 miles arguably his best.#4-SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING : Last year's Oaklawn Handicap winner has earned $3.2 million while being a well-placed road warrior throughout his career. As good as ever in winning a third straight Challenger Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs most recently which was his same springboard here in 2024. Irad Ortiz Jr. takes over for injured pilot Tyler Gaffalione. Nearly all of his best efforts have come when he's first or second early in the race; so if you're going to beat him, several getting in front of him early -- which is possible here -- would be the gameplan.#5-ALEXANDER HELIOS : Dueling victory in the Grade 3 Razorback at 8-1 odds, he'll be the longer-priced of the Saffie Joseph Jr. entrants on Saturday alongside stablemate Skippylongstocking. Similar running style to the favorite and aggressive jockey Luis Saez probably won't take a back seat. Good record at the track and distance.#6-TARANTINO : Santa Anita-based colt has trained at Keeneland in recent weeks and could have run there Saturday for $350,000 in the Ben Ali. Confidence move making return trip to Oaklawn for $1.25 million after a troubled-trip second in the Essex. The $40,000 claim has gone 6: 2-3-1 since coming to trainer Peter Eurton but must deal with pace heat.#7-BANISHING : Nearly wired the Razorback in February before coming up a head short to Alexander Helios while holding off First Mission. His Oaklawn Mile return bid was sharp, dueling and outgaming the Grade 1 winner Saudi Crown while flashing far clear of everyone else. Flavien Prat rode both times prior, now jumps to First Mission, while speed jockey Ricardo Santana reclaims the mount. He twice won sprinting with Banshing earlier in the Oaklawn meeting. Pedigree says 9 furlongs will be fine, but he's going to be stretched with pressure. Just 2 heads away from 7 straight wins.#8-RED ROUTE ONE: Late-runner figures to take his place at the back and hope they cook early and often in front of him. Rallied strongly to win the Grade 3 Essex in one of the better performances of his career. He's had a problem repeating top efforts, going a paltry 5: 0-0-2 following his previous career victories. Gets his best distance at 9 furlongs.Most Certain Exotics Contender:DISARM is 14-15 in the superfecta lifetime and has a beautiful pace set-up.Best Longshot Exotics Contender:At 10-1 morning line, DISARM fills the bill here as well.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$60 win DISARM. $10 exacta key-box DISARM with respected logical players SKIPPYLONGSTOCKING and FIRST MISSION ($20).

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4.16.2025:

Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Wednesday Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Picks

Wednesday’s Keeneland late pick 4 carries a 2 million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split promotion when you play through 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The sequence looks deep and challenging with field sizes of 12x8x12x11 and no obvious, free-space favorites. That’s good news for those looking for a healthy score, and who amongst us doesn’t want that?We took down Sunday’s late pick 4 in this space for $274 on a $16 ticket, so let’s double down to open the racing week in Lexington.Race 5#4 Dear Scarlett (30-1 morning line) and #3 Candy Mine (4-1 ML) drew advantageous posts in this turf sprint maiden race and are deep closers looking to make ground-saving rallies. I’m taking the bigger price on top, but will look for depth in this spot with #7 Izzy Sweet Girl (10-1 ML), whose sire has done really good work in Keeneland turf sprints, and #10 Magic Escapade (6-1 ML), a sharp-working rookie from a win-early barn and hot jockey in the saddle in Luis Saez.Race 6#8 Trust Issues (15-1 ML) is 5: 1-2-2 on fast dirt and hasn’t misfired, yet his record looks inconsistent due to several races on synthetic, turf or wet tracks. He’s reunited with Luis Saez, who rode him to a win and second-place finish in 2 prior pairings. Drawn nicely outside in modest field size for 6 furlongs. #6 Augusta Melody (3-1 ML) runs second-off-the-layoff after a notable fourth by 1 length at Fair Grounds behind Discreet Mischief, who returned to smash allowance foes here last week. Comfortable with this pair.Race 7This is another full-field turf sprint and it’s full of good allowance options. #4 Elegant (6-1 ML) transfers from the Bob Baffert barn and should bring California speed to Rudy Brisset and lures Flavien Prat from an advantageous draw. International export X-factors #2 Tales of the Heart (6-1 ML) and #3 Latin Fever (8-1 ML) arrive in Hall of Fame barns. #12 Big Trouble (9-2 ML) should be flying late down the center of the course under Jose Ortiz, while #9 Saturday Flirt (7-2 ML) was a course winner here as a 2-year-old for the always-dangerous turf sprint barn of Wesley Ward.Race 8#1 Princess Is Olivia has won 5 of her last 9 starts, including a 7-furlong claimer here during the Fall Meet when battling every step. She’s likely more effective at today’s 6-furlong trip and looks to go to 3-for-3 when teamed with Luis Saez, who could be poised for another big day. I’ll single here in the finale while fearing the late rally of #6 Sally’s Surprise, who would be the logical addition to the ticket for those faint of heart or who prefer to single in another spot in the sequence.The Ticket:4,7,10,3 with 8,6 with 4,2,3,12,9 with 1 = $20 for $.50

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4.16.2025:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Wednesday, April 16, 2025

EXTRA INCENTIVES2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Keeneland late pick 4TOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot pick 5 | $519,195 Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $5,644 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY TAMPA BAY DOWNS WINNERTampa Bay Downs | Race 5 | 2:46 pm ET | #2 Kitty Hawk (28%)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 5 | 3:08 pm ETTampa Bay Downs | Race 7 | 3:50 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMichael Moore | Parx | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less morning line oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Horseshoe Indianapolis | jockey Fernando de la Cruz | 3 wins, 1 second from 4 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Wednesday, April 16, 2025Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Wednesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

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