We made it! Kentucky Derby Day is upon us and I am sure everyone is excited as I am. I will get right to the card, but just a reminder about the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion we are running on Friday and Saturday. 10k is up for grabs both days with the goal of connecting on the most $2-exactas as possible. Each day, those who hit 6 will equally split $8,000 with the customer(s) who hit the most taking down the other $2,000. Register and have yourself a day!Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: C+Use: 11 Powershift; 8 Bourbon Dream/3 Silent WayForecast: The Derby Day card gets started with a two-turn MSW event over the main track where I am logical other than being against #9 Winston Ave. Bob Baffert runners are likely to get bet on the big day and this colt has underwhelmed through 4 starts out west. #11 Powershift is the likeliest winner, but a tough read after the poor effort in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3).Race 2:Grade: B+Use: 8 TaptasticForecast: The second is another 1 1/16-miles affair, but for first-level allowance foes where it appears #8 Taptastic should be tough to beat. The Tapit colt showed professionalism winning at two-turns with an inside trip to kick off his career. Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen thought enough of the effort to give him a shot 20 days later in the Arkansas Derby and was rewarded with a solid third-place run. He gets a rider upgrade to Irad Ortiz, drops in class, and is one of my top plays on the day.Race 3:Grade: B-Use: 5 John Hancock; 6 Who Dey; 10 VibeForecast: I will try to beat 3-1-ML favorite #12 Praetor in this second-level allowance at one-mile over the main track. The Chad Brown runner has posted solid efforts in all six career starts, but comes in off of 3 consecutive losses at 2-1 or lower. There are three runners I like equally that have the upside to beat the chalk. #5 John Hancock has not been seen since last year’s Louisiana Derby (G2), but showed strong talent as a 3YO. He is a tough read, but has serious upside still. #6 Who Dey is probably the most trustworthy of the bunch, but is just 1 for 5 over this oval. #10 Vibe should get a great trip and is more than capable if his Florida form transfers to Louisville.Race 4: Derby City Distaff (G1)Grade: C+Use: 6 R Disaster/4 Ways and Means; 5 Splendora; 1 UshaForecast: This year’s Derby City Distaff (G1) is a bit tough for me to get excited about wagering on because the two favorites #4 Ways and Means and #5 Splendora beat this field with their best. That said, I am not sold we see that from either of them, so I will take a small swing here with #6 R Disaster. If the two chalks get beat, it is likely because the speed forgets to stop. This Florida-bred mare tired in the lane last out in the Madison (G1), but the top two ran huge in there. The price should be worth it to take a little shot.Race 5: Turf Sprint (G2)Grade: BUse: 10 Joe Shiesty; 9 LitigationForecast: #3 My Boy Prince was made the 5-2-ML favorite off his win in the Shakertown (G2), but the son of Cairo Prince had a dream run in early April. He may get the trip again, but I prefer two runners drawn to the outside. #9 Litigation finished fourth to Cairo Prince last out, but did not have the trip the winner did. Trainer Brian Lynch turns to Irad Ortiz. It is hard to overstate the upgrade. I did land on #10 Joe Shiesty in the end though, in large part because of price. The Air Force Blue gelding tried harder than looks on paper last out when he finished fifth in the aforementioned Shakertown. He easily disposed of the other speed and lost by less than two lengths in the end. I expect him to have things his way on the front end in his third start of the form cycle.Race 6: Knicks GoGrade: B-Use: 4 Be YouForecast: I like #4 Be You in this one-mile race over the main track for restricted company. The son of Curlin won nicely two-back and then put forth a solid third when racing against the flow in early April in the Carter (G2). The class relief and likely race shape should benefit the Repole Stable runner.Race 7: Distaff Turf Mile (G2)Grade: B-Use: 4 Temptable; 3 Portfolio DurationForecast: I will take on 5-2-ML favorite in this Grade 2 at over the grass. The American Pharoah mare won both of her first two starts for trainer Brendan Walsh this winter in Florida. Her tactical speed is a weapon that allows her to work out favorable trips, but they were ideal at Gulfstream Park. I prefer the upside of both #3 Portfolio Duration and #4 Temptable. Temptable was outrun in her lone start in the States last fall, but fits well with these. At 8-1, I made her my top choice.Race 8: Pat Day Mile (G2)Grade: C+Use: 7 Crown the Buckeye; 1 Englishman; 6 Crude VelocityForecast: #1 Englishman and #6 Crude Velocity appear to be serious 3YO sprinters. Both come into this $750k event 2 for 2. One of them is likely to win this, but they may not get ideal trips in a race that should see an honest pace. #1 Englishman will win if he breaks well from his rail draw and makes an easy lead, but that is a big if. #6 Crude Velocity has a huge chance if the pace is honest and Florent Geroux is able to avoid traffic and get in the clear when they turn for home. The problem is their price may not account for those legitimate concerns, so I semi-reluctantly will side against both with #7 Crown the Buckeye. The Ohio-bred battled to the wire with Iron Honor in the Gotham, attracts Flavien Prat for the first time, and could get a perfect stalking trip. We will see if he is up to the challenge.Race 9: American Turf (G1)Grade: B+Use: 4 Stark Contrast/12 Remember Mamba; 2 Let’s Be Frank; 10 VasyForecast: #4 Stark Contrast looks like a potential single in horizontals in this year’s American Turf (G1). The Amerman Racing Stables colt finished a strong second to Fulleffort in the Jeff Ruby (G3) and showed a very strong turn of foot over the grass two-back in the Eddie Logan. He gets one of the best in the game onboard and looks tough. Take a peek at #2 Let’s Be Frank if you are playing trifectas or supers. His effort in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) is a complete toss due to his traffic issues and his loss last time was to a colt loose on the lead at Santa Anita. He is likely to be a massive price.Race 10: Churchill Downs (G1)Grade: B-Use: 2 Cornucopian/5 Disruptor; 1 Disco Time; 7 ImaginationForecast: #6 Knightsbridge comes in with the fastest races, but he has had things easy in his last three wins at Gulfstream Park compared to what he encounters today. I am willing to tip my cap to him if he handles this task at his likely price. #2 Cornucopian has unlimited talent. The question is what kind of trip will he work out along the inside. With a clean one, I like his chances. If not, there are a few others I will include in hopes of besting favorite.Race 11: Turf Classic (G1)Grade: C+Use: 6 Rhetorical; 3 Asbury ParkForecast: 5-2-ML favorite #6 Rhetorical has never travelled the 9-furlong distance he encounters in the Turf Classic, so he has questions to answer at a relatively short price. That said, there is not a lot of speed in here, which should have him on the lead or in a perfect stalking spot off a moderate early pace. I like his chances, but not enough to rush to the windows to wager on the Will Walden trainee. #3 Asbury Park takes on older runners for the first and does so off the bench, but trainer Chad Brown must love the way he is training to send him right to the wolves. He can finish at the distance, draws favorably, and gets Prat. He has to overcome a lot, but has a high ceiling.Race 12: Kentucky Derby (G1)Grade: B+Use: 12 Chief Wallabee; 18 Further Ado/6 Commandment/15 Emerging Market; 8 So Happy/10 Wonder Dean; 7 Danon Bourbon; 22 OcelliForecast: I did a lot of Derby focused content, so I am hopeful you have checked out the “1/ST Call Podcast” with Jeremy Plonk, “Horse Cents” with Bailey Armour, and my spaces recorded on Wednesday with Pete Denk. For those looking to get my last thoughts for the entire day, check out my 7:30 AM spaces on X (twitter) with Doug Nachman. I can’t wait!Race 13:Grade: B-Use: 8 Gilded Bandit; 11 Noble Affair/1 Small TownForecast: I will go two-deep in late horizontals against 5-2-ML favorite #10 Buetane in this first-level allowance over the main track. Bob Baffert cuts the colt back in distance after a trio of underwhelming runs on the Derby Trail. #8 Gilded Bandit beats these if he works out a trip from off-the-pace. He had to work to get by a Brad Cox runner that ran fast and hard to the wire in his maiden score. He can finish. If not, #11 Noble Affair has the edge. He lost a tough one last out by a neck, but should be set for his best second off the bench.Race 14:Grade: B-Use: 3 Interrogator/7 Act of Parliament; 10 Chianti TownForecast: I will hope to close the Derby card down with first-time starter #3 Interrogator. The Omaha Beach colt commanded $500k at the Keeneland Sept ’24 sale and has shown ability in the morning. Plus, it is probably a positive if Steve Asmussen had him spar with Hall of Fame in his final breeze before his debut. I expect a big run.

Thursday's action at Santa Anita and Gulfstream gets boosted by a series of carryovers.SPECIAL WAGERSCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream 7-8; Santa Anita 1-2-3Sunset 6 | Gulfstream 6-7-8; Santa Anita 6-7-8Pick 6 | Santa Anita 4-5-6-7-8-9NOTABLE CARRYOVERSSunset 6 | $7,388 | begins GP Race 6 | 3:53 pm ETCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | $68,707 | begins GP Race 7 | 4:23 pm ETPick 6 | $44,113 | Santa Anita | begins Race 4 | 5:39 pm ETHANDICAPPING HELPRon Nicoletti GP picks Handicappers' SA pick 6 video preview

1/ST KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDEFree Access | link EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Churchill Downs | today’s racesSPECIAL WAGERSPreakness Future Wager | open now through SaturdayCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream 7-8; Santa Anita 1-2-3Sunset 6 | Gulfstream 6-7-8; Santa Anita 6-7-8TOURNAMENT TIME$40 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSSuper Hi 5 | $8,635 | Churchill Downs | Race 1 | 12:45 pm ETSunset 6 | $7,388 | Gulfstream/Santa Anita | begins GP Race 6 | 3:53 pm ET | Ron Nicoletti GP picksCoast-to-Coast Pick 5 | $68,707 Gulfstream/Santa Anita | begins GP Race 7 | 4:23 pm ETPick 6 | $44,113 | Santa Anita | begins Race 4 | 5:39 pm ET | Handicappers' Video PreviewKEY RACESChurchill Downs | Race 9 | 5:14 pm ET | Opening Verse StakesChurchill Downs | Race 10 | 5:50 pm ET | St. Matthews StakesOaklawn | Race 9 | 6:02 pm ET | Natural State Breeders’ StakesChurchill Downs | Race 11 | 6:22 pm ET | Mamzelle StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXChurchill Downs | Race 4 | 2:18 pm ETOaklawn | Race 10 | 6:36 pm ETCharles Town | Race 9 | 10:45 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHSaffie Joseph Jr. | Gulfstream, Oaklawn, Churchill | 5 of 6 entrants 7-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Churchill Downs | jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. | 3 wins, 2 seconds from 8 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Thursday Bet $100, Get $10 Promo PlaysFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

The first of two massive days of racing are upon us at Churchill Downs where the Kentucky Oaks will be run at night in 2026. The 13-race card is great from start-to-finish and gets started at 12:30 PM eastern time with the featured event set to go to post at 8:40 PM. In terms of promotions, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are happy to bring back are popular Exacta-Thon. $10,000 will be up for grabs on both Friday and Saturday with the goal of connecting on as many $2 exactas over the course of the card. Those who connect on 6 earn an equal split of $8,000 each day with the remaining funds going to the player(s) who hit the most throughout the card.The stakes action gets started in Race 7, but my strongest opinions come early. Let’s dive into what should hold up as one of the best of the year.Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: BUse: 5 Mass; 1 Phantom BlueForecast: #1 Phantom Blue was made the odds-on ML favorite in this two-turn MSW event over the main track after battling early and tiring late sprinting over the off going at Keeneland on April 3. She cost seven-figures and did nothing to disgrace herself on debut, but I prefer the value #5 Mass should offer. The Not This Time filly moves back to the main track after being bet hard going a route of ground on debut, but failing to fire. Trainer Michael McCarthy adds the blinkers and turns to Flavien Prat. Hopefully it is go- time for a barn that is willing to be patient with some of their top runners.Race 2:Grade: B+Use: 5 Quantum BurstForecast: One of my strongest opinions of the day comes in this second-level allowance at one-mile over the main track where I love the chances of #5 Quantum Burst. The daughter of Munnings makes her third start off the bench after a pair of races this winter for trainer Eddie Kenneally. The 4YO filly ran a solid second to stablemate Evanescence two-back off the bench before being caught four-wide on a day where the rail was best at Oaklawn Park. The freshening, success over the surface, and rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz all give this gal a huge shot in the first leg of the early Pick 4.Race 3:Grade: B-Use: 9 Leilani; 10 Star Actress/3 Krissy’s Star; 2 Measure; 4 Miss Call; 6 Maximum OfferForecast: The two best fillies in this first-level allowance at 1 1/16-miles over the main track are drawn to the outside, which could make it more wide-open than it would be otherwise. #10 Star Actress held her own in the Ashland (G1) after earning her first win at Gulfstream Park in mid-March. She has a huge chance if able to avoid a wide voyage throughout, as does top choice #9 Leilani. The Walmac Farm runner finished strong when racing against the flow on debut at Gulfstream before crushing a field on March 1. She has unlimited upside and comes in off a strong series of works at Payson Park before a maintenance drill in Louisville. I expect a big run if she gets a clean voyage.Race 4:Grade: BUse: 7 Bella Ella; 9 Lexi V./11 Tammy’s Kiss; 10 Rose of San Antone; 13 TramuntanaForecast: I hope to be counting my money after this 7-furlong dash over the main track for fillies and mares yet to earn their first win. I am high on two prices and will be hoping to connect on the exacta to separate potentially a bit from the pack in the Exacta-Thon promotion. #7 Bella Ella is well-bred and finished stronger in her debut sprinting than it may appear on paper. She had plenty left in the tank that day and should relish getting back to one-turn. #9 Lexi V is another price I will be using equally as much as my top choice. The Calumet Farm homebred faced stronger fields in Florida this winter than she does in this spot. The daughter of Lexitonian was down on the inside when the outside was the place to be on debut and then ran third in a solid heat in early March. Hopefully, she gets overlooked in the wagering.Race 5:Grade: BUse: 11 Royal Guard; 6 ExecutiveForecast: The early Pick 5 concludes with the first turf race of the day. I will use a pair in of logicals in hopes of beating the 3-1-ML favorite #10 Prepped. The promising Lael Stables colt looked serious immediately, but has struggled to win races he was supposed to win evidenced by his four defeats at 5-2 or less thus far. I prefer both #11 Royal Guard and #6 Executive. Royal Guard draws outside, but gets Irad Ortiz aboard after being caught three wide most of the way in his lone turf start last summer. She comes in fresh, but Brad Cox is more than capable of having her ready to fire off the long break. #6 Executive has had 6 chances, but showed his strongest energy late when we saw him last in mid-February. He should be finishing well once again.Race 6:Grade: B+Use: 5 Paige Turner/4 Color Comin’ In; 9 Steer Clear; 14 Heaven’s BoltForecast: My other strongest opinion on the Oaks Day extravaganza comes in this first-level allowance at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where #5 Paige Turner makes her first start as a 3YO for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The $350k OBS March 2025 purchase ran three good races as a juvenile, including a runner-up effort to On Time Girl in her lone start versus winners. The daughter of Army Mule has been training forwardly for her return and draws nicely. She should be tough. Do not leave #4 Color Comin’ In out underneath. The Norm Casse trainee showed talent as a 2YO and then needed her comeback race in Arkansas in late February. She has been training far more like herself since and adds blinkers.Race 7: Unbridled Sidney (G2)Grade: C+Use: 9 Shoot It True; 6 Shisospicy/ 4 Creed’s Gold; 1 Mae TownForecast: There is no doubt the first stakes of the afternoon goes through #6 Shisospicy. The daughter of Mitole makes her first start since a dominant gate-to-wire win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Her speed and her best make her the clear one to beat and tough to toss, but the tote will show that. Perhaps she is not at 100% off the layoff. #9 Shoot It True is worth a look at least. She had everything go wrong when failing at Keeneland versus lesser in early April. Shaking off the rust in Lexington and the move to an outside draw should have her more relaxed in this one.Race 8: Eight Belles (G2)Grade: C+Use: 8 Goodall; 4 Paradise; 6 Sippin Pretty; 3 River WindForecast: #8 Goodall is my top choice in this 7-furlong dash for 3YO fillies. The Spendthrift Farm gal had a strong winter finishing second in a field of 12 on debut and followed it up with a pair of solid wins. She meets a group that has speed, but does not break nearly as well as her. This could allow Flavien Prat to get the jump and settle into a good stride in the clear. If they go at it upfront a bit, do not be surprised if #4 Paradise is involved late. The Gun Runner filly has tactical speed, but cuts back out of a 9-furlong race. I expect her to finish much stronger on the turn back to 7-panels.Race 9: Alysheba (G2)Grade: C+Use: 7 Skippylongstocking, 2 Baeza/1 Navajo WarriorForecast: I am looking forward to this Grade 2 event for the older handicap horses, but it is not a race I plan to dive into head first. #2 Baeza is obviously capable off the layoff and in Bill Mott’s barn, but is not a great bet. A 1 1/16-miles might be sharper than he prefers, plus last year’s 3YO crop has yet to prove they deserve to be over bet against older runners. Therefore, I landed on #7 Skippylongstocking. He has the recency edge and appears to be in as good of form as ever. He is 0 for 2 over this surface though, which makes backing at him at his likely price underwhelming too.Race 10: Modesty (G3)Grade: XUse: 6 GezoraForecast: I have little desire in trying to beat the heavy favorite in this 1 1/8-miles excursion over the grass. #6 Gezora makes her first start since springing a 9-1-upset in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall. She comes in off a steady work tab and gets Flavien Prat. There are no free squares in racing, particularly at this level, but taking her on is not something I plan to do.Race 11: La Troienne (G1)Grade: C+Use: 1 Bless the Broken; 8 Dry PowderForecast: This year’s La Troienne (G1) is far more wide-open than the last couple of years when Thorpedo Anna and Idiomatic both went off at odds-on. I like #1 Bless the Broken most. The daughter of Laoban spent the early part of her career in the Will Walden barn, but was purchased last November for $950,000 by the current connections. She ran well in her first two starts for her new barn, including a runner-up effort to the extremely talented Splendora on her turf in the Beholder Mile (G1). Irad getting the call should ensure a good trip from the rail in her third start off the bench.Race 12: Edgewood (G2)Grade: C+Use: 3 Imaginationthelady; 9 DandonaForecast: This year’s Edgewood is also wide-open on paper, but I am not overly creative unfortunately. #9 Dandona is the best finisher in the field, but may not get the pace she needs to be at her best. If they go quick, I love her chances, but if not #3 Imaginationthelady should get the trip. The Not This Time filly makes her second start off the bench after being part of a blanket finish in the Appalachian (G2). She has more tactical speed than most and draws favorably along the rail.Race 13: Kentucky Oaks (G1)Grade: B-Use: 10 Prom Queen, 2 Zany; 9 Always a Runner/12 Bella BallerinaForecast: The featured event really opened up with the results of the last preps. I ended up liking three fillies equally in the end. #10 Prom Queen is my lukewarm top choice. The Gary and Mary West homebred needs to avoid getting caught up in a potential early battle, but has done little wrong thus far. The daughter of Quality Road has been pointed to two-turn races all along and has won both of them thus far for fun. Trip will be everything in this race, but all things equal I like Prom Queen to run well in her first start outside of Florida. #2 Zany lost to #11 Percy’s Bar in the Ashland (G1), but did not have nearly the trip the Ben Colebrook runner did. With the move to an inside draw, Zany should get a great trip if she is able to relax in the early going. She has been a handful and green at times still as a 3YO. #9 Always a Runner is my third “A”. The Gun Runner filly finished extremely well in the Gazelle in her first start against winners. She has unlimited upside at this point.Best of luck on the first of two fantastic cards!

The Kentucky Derby is hailed as “the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.” But horse racing fans who pour into Churchill Downs this weekend will be treated to an exciting 2 days of action before the Run for the Roses. The $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) will highlight the Friday, May 1 card and cap an all-graded stakes Pick 3 that shapes up this way:CD 11th Race (6:56 p.m. EST) -- FULLY SUBSCRIBED won back-to-back graded stakes at 1-1/8 miles to cap her 3-year-old season. She beat Grade 1-winning millionaire Quietside and last year’s Kentucky Oaks runner-up Drexel Hill (#11 in here) by 4-plus lengths and is working forwardly for today’s Grade 2 La Troienne at 1-1/16 miles, her first Grade 1 test. DRY POWDER appeared to be forced wide on the backstretch after stumbling at the start of a one-mile allowance, but she inhaled rivals on the turn and won in a manner that stamps her a live longshot on the big step up in class. She makes her third start this year and has a near miss in the Grade 1 Cotillion – another $1 million race at this distance – to summon. MISS JUSTIFY won a minor stakes race at Churchill Downs at this distance during a $291k sophomore season in 2024. She raced only twice in 2025 for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, now starts anew for trainer Brendan Walsh, who is 37-for-173 (21 percent) with long-distance runners since February 14. At 15-1, include her on the Pick 3 ticket.CD 12th Race (7:40 p.m. EST) -- STORM’S WAKE, IMAGINATIONTHELADY, JUST ALOOF, LION LAKE and DANDONA not only bring graded stakes-winning turf routes to the table in the $600,000 Edgewood (G-2) at 1-1/16 miles, but all have shown steady improvement. DANDONA got first run on LION LAKE on the final turn of the Grade 3 Florida Oaks, but both finished well on a ‘good’ Tampa Bay Downs surface that favored closers. JUST ALOOF slipped through a rail opening and led between calls in the stretch of a solid one-mile comeback, but she leveled off late. Add TIME TO DREAM, LORELEI and TAM TAM to the list in a deep second leg of the sequence.CD 13th race (8:40 p.m. EST) -- You can go dizzy handicapping the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. To put the $1.5 million race for 3-year-old fillies in perspective, consider this: the 14 entrants in the main body of the 1-1/8-mile test have started 22 times in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races, combining for 10 wins and nine seconds and spanning nine tracks nationwide. PROM QUEEN was most impressive in winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, stalking a soft pace while 4-wide to the far turn, ranging up on the pace setter under confident handling and taking command in the final sixteenth. Trainer Brad Cox is 141-for-467 (30 percent) the last two years with a positive return on investment with repeat winners. ALWAYS A RUNNER (pictured), one of two entrants to race at this distance, did so in winning the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct. She made an eye-catching inside burst on the final turn, appeared as if she wouldn’t reach pace controller PASHMINA (#13) in mid-stretch, but had to find another gear late to prevail as the top pair separated from the field. Her sire, 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, produced four multiple Grade 1-winning routers and seven multimillionaires.Suggested $1 Pick 3 TicketCD 11th Race: 4, 8, 9CD 12th Race: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11CD 13th Race: 9, 10Cost: $48 Be sure to play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon this Friday and Saturday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for your share of extra cash. 

The Lead:It doesn't get any better than Kentucky Derby Day: great horses, giant pools, expanded wagering options. We have you covered for the Run for the Roses in the 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide. But the annual lead-in is the Turf Classic, and an international cast of 10 will precede the Kentucky Derby in Race 11. It's a part of several multi-race and multi-day bets including a 2-day pick 3, 2-day pick 6 and Saturday all-turf pick 4 ... among the traditional, multi-race sequences. Be sure to play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon this Friday and Saturday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for your share of extra cash.​​Field Depth:Grade 1 winners PROGRAM TRADING, RHETORICAL, GOLD PHOENIX and TEST SCORE have signature scores on their ledgers, while MERCANTE is Grade 1-placed. Grade 2 winners include ASBURY PARK and foreign raider MAKE ME KING.​Pace:CORRUPTION and MERCANTE could set a modest pace here with RHETORICAL and ASTRONOMER most likely to apply pressure if it's to come. A deep closer could be compromosed by this race shape.​Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.#1-CORRPUTION: Rail pace player has been turned into a turf marathoner while facing lesser competition. Worst races on his form have come at Churchill and at the Grade 1 level, so bad combination for Saturday’s assignment. Impacts the tempo if Johnny V is aggressive holding position.#2-DASHMAN: Another who hasn’t shown the propensity to compete with sharp, middle-distance turfers. Likely to expend more in keeping up than he’d prefer and be left empty late despite a good post draw. Jockey Joel Rosario comes off a disappointing Keeneland performance.#3-ASBURY PARK: October returnee takes on elders for the first time in stakes company, but 4-year-olds have been very strong in this race over the years. Well-bred Frankel colt broke his maiden off a10-month layoff last summer and can fire fresh under Flavien Prat – who jumps off Grade 1 winner Program Trading to pilot. There cause for pause and optimism, so demand that 8-1 morning line price. Chad Brown aims for a 3-peat in the Turf Classic.#4-PROGRAM TRADING: The 2024 Turf Classic winner (pictured, inside) missed the spring of 2025 on the sidelines and returns at age 6. Chad Brown adds blinkers to this $1.6 million earner for the first time in 13 starts, but Flavien Prat jumps seats to ride stablemate Asbury Park. Okay efforts in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and Mervin Muniz Memorial in his 2 starts this year, but he’s 0-for-5 since being sidelined over 14 months beginning in summer 2024.#5-MERCANTE: 13-1 runner-up here a season ago in the Turf Classic has gone 1-for-7 since, but very consistent in races beyond a mile. Reliable Brian Knippenberg trainee hasn’t missed the super in 4 tries over this course and takes the same prep path as a year ago when he just missed defending his title in Turfway’s Kentucky Cup Classic on synthetic. Probably a double-digit price again and not without a case.#6-RHETORICAL: True miler will be tested at his farthest distance to date, but it’s difficult to argue this one’s consistent brilliance. Trainer Will Walden is having a banner 2026 on the stats ledger and regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is worth a couple lengths alone the way he’s been riding. Clearly the horse to beat as the 5-2 morning line favorite and very well could be shorter than that. Perhaps the distance questions help hold that price.#7-GOLD PHOENIX: Eight-year-old Duke of Del Mar finished a late-running fourth in this race last year and returns from his California base. Phil D’Amato has San Luis Rey Stakes-winning pilot Hector Berrios back for the ride as that jockey is in town to ride Intrepido in the Derby. The 1-1/8 miles distance is perhaps a too-sharp trip for this gelding who excels at 10-12 furlongs, but his effort last year puts him in the exotics hunt.#8-ASTRONOMER: After starting his career 3-for-6, he stepped into the stakes ranks and hasn’t found the winner’s circle in 19 tries. But it’s without some close calls, 3 times a Grade 2 runner-up. Appears a cut below these for trainer Simon Callaghan. Expect Javier Castellano to have him closer to the pace than many of his previous starts.#9-TEST SCORE: Ever-consistent Graham Motion trainee was runner-up in the American Turf last year during Derby Weekend when facing fellow 3-year-olds. He’s proven himself against elders, winning January’s Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream under Manny Franco, his regular rider who returns Saturday. The caution is the 3-month layoff as he lost his debut and exiting a similar break to open his 2025 season as the favorite – showing some vulnerability on being able to win off of works alone.#10-MAKE ME KING: World traveler makes his US debut, having raced in Dubai, Qatar, England and France. Wathnan Racing and trainer Hamad Al-Jehani won Woodbine’s Grade 1 Canadian International last Fall with Silawi. This Dark Angel colt has been a pure miler overseas until stretching out last time when fourth in the Grade 1 Dubai Turf. That fourth-place finish behind internationally acclaimed Ombudsman would stack up well with these. I like international horses pairing with American jockeys, and Jose Ortiz has been off to a blazing start at Churchill Downs.Most Likely Exotics Contender:RHETORICAL is 8-8 in the superfecta, and while the trip might be a bit farther than his best, expect him to be thoroughly involved in the stretch.Best Longshot Contender:MERCANTE may fit the winning trends of this race best of all. Over the past 13 years, horses coming off top-2 finishes between a mile and 1-1/18 miles while racing within the last 42 days have had overwhelming success in the Turf Classic. He’ll match up with a slew of horses shortening trips, returning from layoffs and trying to bounce back from worse defeats.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$25 win MERCANTE. $25 exacta part-wheel ASBURY PARK, RHETORICAL, TEST SCORE over MERCANTE ($75).

We are just two days away from the 152nd Kentucky Derby and I could not be more excited! Things pick up quite a bit in terms of quality on Thursday, which also marks the final chance at our month long “Blooming Bankrolls” promotion. For those just checking in, it is simple. Register on the promotional landing page, bet $100 on the Thurby card at Churchill Downs, and earn a $10 bonus. Here are the horses I plan to use to earn my $10.Race 7:My first play on the Thurby card comes in this MSW event for fillies and mares at two-turns over the grass where #1 Honfleur is likely to be a significant favorite. The Chad Brown trainee comes in off a pair of runner-up efforts since moving to the lawn in January. The presence of Flavien Prat and the inside draw should ensure a good trip, but I do not trust her to seal the deal. I prefer #4 Cape Sounion. The daughter of No Nay Never made her first start in the States and off a near 7-month break at Gulfstream Park in late March. The race was conducted over the all-weather not the lawn and things did not go well for this Brendan Walsh conditioned filly. She broke slow as the 6-5-favorite and struggled to relax from there. Cape Sounion should run a lot better in her second start in North America after shaking off the rust and getting accustomed to her new surroundings. Walsh legs up his main man Tyler Gaffalione for the first time.Play: #4 Cape Sounion (3-1 ML)Race 9: Opening VerseThere is no doubt this one-mile event over the lawn goes through #8 Lagynos. The son of Kantharos was excellent in New Orleans this winter winning a pair of graded stakes convincingly. That said, he is just 1 for 8 at Churchill Downs and is going to be a short price, so I will try to turn the tables on him with #5 Chasing the Crown. Unlike the favorite, this 7YO has thrived in Louisville throughout his career. In fact, he is 4 for 7 with 2 seconds over this turf course. The pace should be honest given the presence of #4 Quatrocento and #7 Mi Bago, which gives the son of Skipshot his best chance to spring the upset. He should be set for his best after a fourth-place effort to Lagynos to start the form cycle. Juan Hernandez will be aboard for the first time.Play: #5 Chasing the Crown (15-1 ML)Race 10: St. MatthewsThis 6-furlong dash over the main track is almost always a competitive one and this year is no exception. #2 Built was made the 3-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, but there are likely to be a few horses that take significant public support. One of those is #3 Be You. The Repole Stable gelding makes his second start off the bench after racing against the flow and moving wide into the lane in the Carter (G2) in early April. John Velazquez was aboard him when he won in Kentucky last fall and will be back onboard for the first time since. He should get an honest pace to run at. If he does, I expect him to out finish this field.Play: #3 Be You (4-1 ML)

1/ST KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDEFree Access | link Wednesday Wager Guide Updates:-- Millie Ball Kentucky Derby Analysis & Betting Strategy-- Scott Shapiro Kentucky Derby Analysis & Betting Strategy-- Jeremy Plonk Kentucky Derby Analysis & Betting Strategy-- 1/ST Handicappers Consensus Oaks & Derby Picks **-handicappers continually adding as availableDERBY DOINGS FOR WEDNESDAY-- Silent Tactic: will scratch as trainer Mark Casse reported a foot bruise (Preakness possible)-- Great White: draws into the field due to the scratch; wears saddle towel 21DERBY ON DECKScott Shapiro: Thursday Churchill Downs Bet $100, Get $10 Promo Plays | coming soonHorse Cents Podcast: Bailey Armour & Scott Shapiro | Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategies1/ST Call Podcast: Jeremy Plonk & Scott Shapiro | Kentucky Derby 20 Questions for Each ContenderIT PAYS TO PLAYBet Kentucky Oaks Friday and Derby Saturday with 1/ST BET and take part in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon for your share of bonus cash. Details.