Al Cimaglia's best bets Thursday at the Delaware County Fair for Little Brown Jug Day free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. Little Brown Jug Eliminations Previews free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. Photo: Little Brown Jug contender MELILLO, courtesy LittleBrownJug.com / Diane Wise Photo.

The Lead:Opening weekend of the Santa Anita autumn meet is loaded with Breeders' Cup prep intrigue. Saturday's card includes 5 stakes with top turf sprinters clashing mid-card in the Eddie D, named for Hall of Fame jockey Eddie Delahoussaye, who had a penchant for frantic finishes. Expect this one to live up to the namesake firing down the hillside turf course.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of a $10,000 Exacta-Thon promotion for Santa Anita on Saturday.​​Field Depth:Grade 2 winners FIRST PEACE and SORRENTO SKY have won at the level. SUMTER and FREEDOM'S NOT FREE are Grade 3 winners and Grade 2-placed. Several of these runners are evenly matched in terms of schedule strength overall.​Pace:LATER THAN PLANNED adds blinkers and should be part of the early mix that includes VIRAT from the outside. For a downhill turf sprint, the pace isn't dizzying.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-SUMTER: Last 4 downhill turf sprints have netted a stakes win and 3 stakes runner-ups, despite a seemingly ugly 9: 1-3-1 overall mark at the trip. Struggles to win big races back-to-back, which may excuse his last, flat effort at Del Mar and put him squarely on the radar off a bullet workout on the training track for this. Jockey Mike Smith won this race in 2016, 2023 and 2024 and a fourth win would tie Kent Desormeaux's race record. The '23 score came for trainer Richard Mandella with Lane Way.2-LATER THAN PLANNED: The last 3-year-old to win the Eddie D was Home Run Kitten in 2014, 1 of 3 occasions in the past 30 years. No match for several of these in a similar spot in June's Daytona and will add blinkers in hopes of a perk-up while ambitiously placed to this eye. Trainer Phil D'Amato won this race in 2019 (Pee Wee Reese).3-FREEDOM'S NOT FREE: The Mark Glatt barn goes for a third Eddie D win in the last 5 years, winning in 2022 and 2024. Rallying, nose winner of the Daytona here in June rematches with several of those rivals. While not necessarily a downhill turf sprint specialist, his 5: 4-0-1 ledger on the SA lawn stands out and note that sharpened 4-year-olds have the Eddie D 3 of the last 4 years. Juan Hernandez won this race aboard Big Runneur in 2020. Huge threat late.4-AMORITA: Western Approach in 1993 remains the only filly to win the Eddie D. She's winless in 4 downhill turf sprints but has a couple of stakes runner-ups to show for it. Not sure why they opted for a dirt route at Del Mar last out and now comes back 3 weeks later against the boys in another curious spot. Not for me.5-NESSO'S LASTHARRAH: 19-1 allowance upsetter on dirt at Del Mar last out did win a downhill turf sprint at Santa Anita in the sprint vs. lesser. No-threat fifth here in the Eddie D last fall and has been sixth, 10th and 11th in her 3 stakes bids since then. Not for me.6-SORRENTO SKY: Tabbed him as a nice 7-1 winner in the Green Flash at Del Mar as he snapped a 10-race losing streak that witnessed several narrow losses. Really liked the way he finished up in his allowance prep to the Green Flash and he continued that fine closing form. Third in this race last year and a return to the ticket Saturday won't be a surprise. Be price sensitive; last time's good play at 7-1 should be close to those odds again to back in this race.7-PURE MADNESS: Trainer Brian Koriner campaigned star turf sprinter California Flag to 3 victories in the Eddie D (2008, 2009, 2011). Pure Madness has been equally competent on turf and dirt, short and long, witnessed by a 7: 4-3-0 record that leaves little to criticize. This will be the lightly raced 5-year-old's first matchup in an open stakes and first time against many of these familiar turf sprint stakes rivals. Won't be surprised if he's in the mix from the start and sticking around to the wire. Jockey Armando Ayuso won this race a year ago aboard Reef Runner.8-FIRST PEACE: Veteran Eddie D performer won this race in 2024 and was a flat seventh as the favorite last year in his title defense. The 6-year-old has lost all 3 starts this season and loses longtime pilot Mike Smith on Saturday to Sumter. Fear not on the pilot, though, as Joel Rosario takes the mount after a strong Del Mar summer and long history of turf sprint success. Note his last 2 losses at Del Mar were around 2 turns. On his best, First Peace rates as one of the best downhill turf sprinters active and, as noted, Mark Glatt has won this 2 of the last 4 years. The last 2 times this horse went route-to-sprint, he won the 2024 Eddie D and finished a close second in the 2024 Siren Lure over the same trip. Fair to question if he's the same horses as 2024, but Glatt is going to a successful form cycle repeat to find out. Mixed vibes.9-VIRAT: Lightning early in the Green Flash at Del Mar before setting for third at 11-1 odds. He's cross-entered in the Great West Turf Sprint at Remington Park on Sunday's Oklahoma Derby Day card. While just 1 win in his last 8 starts, his recent form has been on the uptick. Jockey Paco Lopez picking up the mount is significant as he's arguably the best turf sprint rider in America (certainly a top-3 discussion with Irad Ortiz Jr. and Joel Rosario).Most Likely Exotics Contender:SUMTER has been dialed in at this trip and signalled his readiness with a big work Sunday.Best Longshot Contender:Outside posts are an edge down the hill and the lack of early pace in here could give VIRAT every chance to take them as far as he can and hold for a piece of the exotics at a double-digit price.​​Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$50 win SUMTER. $10 exacta key-box SUMTER with FREEDOM'S NOT FREE and PURE MADNESS ($40). $10 exacta SUMTER over VIRAT.

“Turf’s up” at Santa Anita for the start of the Fall Meet this Friday. The popular $3 All-Turf Pick 3 covers races 4, 6 and 8 with a reduced 15-percent takeout. Here’s a closer look:Santa Anita Race 4 (5:36 p.m. EST) FAUSTO couldn’t match the move of the last-to-first winner but he finished second in a double key race three starts back under the same conditions. BORN TO ROCK improved with Lasix, now returns as a gelding for trainer Michael McCarthy, who was 28-for-167 with turf horses at Santa Anita in the past year with an average $11.60 win mutuel. AFTER DAWN couldn’t keep pace with the two short-priced favorites on the final turn, but he is working forwardly off that improved second-out try at this level. His sire, Frosted, never raced on turf but he was a multiple graded stakes winner at this distance and three of his siblings won grass stakes in different countries. MIGHTY TORO rallied 3-wide into a solid pace, led at the stretch call just missed in his first try at this level. He holds a tactical advantage and must be used in the leadoff leg despite a short price.Santa Anita Race 6 (6:40 p.m. EST) JORDI BEAR checked hard and out of contention two starts back, but he added blinkers and narrowed the winning margin of Proletariat (4-7, $389k) in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby in his first run at today’s 1-1/8-mile distance. PIEDRA FRIA, our top choice in here, saved ground, got first run on the two favorites and won convincingly is his 5F debut. The winning time was a second faster than a $25,000/nw2 grass sprint on the same card. Trainer Doug O’Neill is 5-for-23 in the past year with second-out turf starters, with four of the winners being dismissed at double-digit odds.Santa Anita Race 8 (7:41 p.m. EST) GOLDENLYNN, the daughter of two-time Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint champion Golden Pal, worked in :59.1 from the gate on the Santa Anita main track September 13, a day when 3 of 36 workouts at 5F timed faster than one minute. She is sure to draw a lot of support in her debut. THEBEACHISBACK has the experience edge and a good race under her belt. She was 4-wide on the backstretch and turn, gained late on the dueling winner but finished third, between a trio of deep closers. Five of her seven rivals today are first-time starters.Suggested Pick 3SA 4th Race: 1, 2, 3, 6SA 6th Race: 2, 6SA 8th Race: 1, 8Cost for a $3 ticket: $48

Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet play for extra cash in September with the Fall into Fortune promotion. Bet $100, Get $10 on select tracks each Tuesday and Thursday. Up next on Thursday: Charles Town. Here are my key plays in West Virginia with an assist from the Betmix database.Charles Town: Race 3 | pm ET#3 Saint Shance (4-1 morning line odds) stretches out to 1-1/16 miles for the first time and could leave some slow maidens in his wake. Trainer Anthony Farrior is 29% wins and 47% in the exacta in local maiden special weight route races the past 5 years. Jockey Jeiron Barbosa has wild 34% win rate in local 1-1/16 miles races around 3 turns like this. Kentucky back class won’t hurt this one in a race with 2 other former big circuit runners. Win #3. Picks 3-7-6Charles Town: Race 8 | 10:32 pm ET#1 Iceteca (8-1 morning line odds) is the only starter on the card for red-hot trainer Jean Adorno, a barn that’s gone 6: 3-1-2 in September after going 11-for-80 on the local year prior. This was hasn’t run since early August and could show improvement like the rest of the barn. Wi-place #1. Exacta box 1-6. Picks 1-6-7

Check it out free at the Xpressbet YouTube page. For Al's handicapping picks for Little Brown Jug Day, check back Thursday to Xpressbet.com.

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Assiniboia Downs | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSSuper Hi 5 | $7,527 | Churchill Downs | Race 3 | 1:43 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $458,147 | Thistledown | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $67,965 | Churchill Downs | begins Race 4 | 2:13 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $5,067 | Horseshoe Indy | Race 7 | 5:16 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXChurchill Downs | Race 5 | 2:45 pm ETHorseshoe Indy | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETMountaineer | Race 3 | 7:50 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHShane Wilson | Louisiana Downs | 4 of 6 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Thistledown, Mountaineer | trainer Jay Bernardini | 3 wins, 1 second from 7 startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Breeders’ Cup prep season is in full effect, with many horses either having made or about to make their final starts before the World Championships are held at Keeneland in October. Each week, I’ll adjust my personal rankings accordingly based on races and news from the weekend prior. The juvenile divisions will enter the equation once the marquee summer meetings have concluded.Below you’ll find my rankings for nine of the Breeders' Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order. Any changes made, whether they be additions / subtractions or new comments, are italicized.(NOTE: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint will be omitted from the rankings. The division is constantly in flux and there are too many who will be cross-entered to make that list worthwhile.)CLASSIC1 - Forever Young (last week: 1)• Some may have been underwhelmed by his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup…but what else did you want from him? A 105 Beyer going 10F off a six-month layoff would seem to be a great jumping off point for a Classic defense.2 - Magnitude (last week: 2)• If you forgive his Saratoga form he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney3 - Sovereignty (last week: 3)• Maybe foolish to move him down a peg, but his unknown status due to the foot abscess has to be a concern; not sure he can afford any sort of hiccups if he’s to make the Breeders’ Cup4 - Knightsbridge (last week: 4)• Devastated the G1 Pacific Classic, a field that was a G1 in name only; hard to find anyone to dispute his brilliance, but the question remains - can he reproduce that brilliance against the cream of the crop?DISTAFF1 - Nitrogen (last week: 1)• Ran arguably the best race of her career in defeat in the Whitney; outside chance she takes on boys again but strictly the horse to beat if she tackles the females in the Distaff2 - Counting Stars (last week: 2)• Defeated as the heavy chalk in the G1 Alabama; clearly not her best but not going to be overly reactionary…she’s still one of the favorites in this division when firing on all cylinders3 - Fully Subscribed (last week: 4)• Secured her first career G1 in the Personal Ensign, earning a 106 Beyer in the process; she’s failed before when tested against the best but has never regressed at any point in her career on the Beyer scale…may be peaking at the right time4 - Splendora (last week: unranked)• The wide margins of victory around two turns would lead you to believe she may well fit the Distaff configuration; have always wondered if she’s better around one turn, though, so maybe a defense of the FM Sprint is the better path? To be determined…SPRINT | BERNIER'S BEST VIDEO PREVIEW1 - Englishman (last week: 1)• The clear leader of the division after another devastating performance at Saratoga in the Allen Jerkens on Travers Day; Beyers of 115 and 117 as a 3YO entering the BC put him in rarified air for Cherie DeVaux2 - T O Elvis (last week: 2)• Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form - but may not need to find much3 - Built (last week: unranked)• Always seemed like a one turn horse and has shown that to be the case in 2026; not much to knock about him given his recent form other than the obvious - his figs are miles behind those of Englishman4 - Listenupshance (last week: unranked)• Similar story as that of Built: form is strong, figs would normally be competitive…just happens to run into what could be one of the better sprinters we’ve seen in the last ten-plus yearsFM SPRINT1 - Kilwin (last week: 1)• Perhaps being a bit stubborn keeping her #1…didn’t think her second in the Ballerina was a bad effort, just ran into a horse for course and found herself way too far back early despite the hot pace; absolutely needs a step forward but hopefully that is still to come at Keeneland2 - Ways and Means (last week: 3)• Disrespectful to have her this far down after a blowout win in a G1 at Saratoga? Maybe…still think she’s a different animal at the Spa v. Other venues; likely goes as the favorite for the FM Sprint in October off the 104 Beyer in the Ballerina3 - Mashallah (last week: 4)• Another blowout victory, this time in the G3 Prioress; figs aren’t exactly improving but hard to argue with what she’s done when you watch her races…may end up being the “now” horse4 - Explora (last week: 2)• Came up just short as part of a three-horse photo in the Dogwood at CD; the figs aren’t quite there for her to be considered a top contender - but that can be said for most in this division aside from Ways and MeansTURF1 - Tiffany (last week: 1)• Devastating victory in the KYD Turf Cup in her U.S. debut; 107 Beyer earned in that race has been the benchmark for BC Turf success over the past decade - a likely win candidate at Keeneland2 - Ombudsman (last week: unranked)• Serious horse and a real possibility to run here if the weather goes sideways for Champions Day at Ascot according to John Gosden via Nick Luck Daily…Gosden has kept him at 10F for majority of career in Europe but the 12F in the United States should be well within his scope; the likely favorite for the Turf assuming he comes for the party3 - Ethical Diamond (last week: 2)• Credible second behind the filly on top in the KYD Turf Cup; connections seem very pleased with the run as a means to an end heading to Keeneland - a legit threat to repeat in the BC Turf4 - Burnham Square (last week: 4)• Can’t rate him any higher after the disaster at KYD, but the intense heat that day may have been the excuse; if you still believe in him, you’ll wind up with a better price come BC SaturdayMILE1 - Blue Bolt (last week: 1)• Never a loser while taking another G1 in the Matron at Leopardstown, which was a WAYI for the BC FM Turf; not sure why you’d consider stretching her with as good as she’s been at the mile distance…would be a handful if Andrew Balding decided to ship her here2 - Erdenali (last week: 2)• Set a Longchamp course record winning the G1 Prix du Moulin, humbling previous #1 rated Gstaad in the process; connections have stated the G1 Coolmore Mile at KEE would be next en route to the BC Mile3 - Notable Speech (last week: 3)• Another G1 victory to his resume in the Woodbine Mile, running down Deterministic - who had everything his way; a major threat to repeat in the BC Mile, even if his WO Mile “only” earned a 101 Beyer4 - Deterministic (last week: 4)• Although no excuse when finishing second behind Notable Speech, don’t really feel as though he loses anything in defeat; still an underneath candidate for BC Mile…although do wonder if the connections explore the idea of trying to stretch and wire a field in the BC Turf?FM TURF1 - Thundering On (last week: 1)• Back to her best winning the G3 Blandford at The Curragh; claim to fame prior was monster win in The Oaks, although form of that race has been spotty…Joseph O’Brien mentioned The Arc as a target, although this filly at 9.5F at Keeneland would be a monster2 - Kentucky Belle (last week: 2)• The immediate target for the connections is the QEII at Keeneland; if she runs as well there as she did at Kentucky Downs on closing day it would be very difficult not to consider the BC FM Turf, even on a relatively quick turnaround3 - Diamond Necklace (last week: 3)• Defeated for the first time in her career, finishing behind Aventure in a G1 at Deauville; soft ground may not have been to her liking - willing to give a mulligan4 - Stellify (last week: 4)• An all or nothing type at this point in her career…when she’s part of the early running, she’s very good; decimated a field in the Ladies Marathon at KYD, a course which she’s 3-for-3 overTURF SPRINT1 - Cy Fair (last week: 1)• Nothing to be gleaned from her off the board effort at KYD; buried on the rail for duration of the run…draw a line through the race - her best is still elite2 - Bacio (last week: 2)• Devastating winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York for Wesley Ward over a highly-accomplished group; no fault with anyone saying he’s clearly tops, just still believe in the filly at #1’s ability3 - Shisospicy (last week: 3)• Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’s4 - Possiblemente (last week: 4)• Put himself squarely in the mix with a strong victory in KYD Turf Sprint; versatile type in raging form for Joe SharpDIRT MILE1 - Knightsbridge (last week: 1)• Hard to imagine the connections not heading to the Classic despite having both he and Sovereignty but will remain a part of this group for the time being2 - Napoleon Solo (last week: 2)• Loses nothing in defeat finishing a gallant second in the Travers; coming up short in each of the past two would lead me to point to the Dirt Mile, but Classic remains an option for the connections3 - The Puma (last week: unranked)• Connections probably wanting to give the Classic a go but not sure his best is good enough to run with the big boys just yet; blinkers certainly did the trick and the middle move he unleashed would play wonderfully in a truly run mile at Keeneland4 - Further Ado (last week: unranked)• Kicked on well at the end of the PA Derby but couldn’t run down The Puma; the record at Keeneland sticks out like a sore thumb - in a good way; can’t imagine the connections are in a rush to try the Classic with him but another who would fit wonderfully in the Dirt MileJUVENILE1 - Coach Pope (last week: 1)• One of three to exit the “key” 2YO race of the summer at Saratoga on August 8; never out of first gear when breaking maiden at CD by more than 12L for McPeek…always take note of horses who do things their connections don’t necessarily prioritize - in this case, McPeek runners usually improve with experience2 - U.S.S Valor (last week: 2)• Could copy / paste the notes for Pope here for Valor being trained by Shug McGaughey; 105 Beyer earned in maiden win at Saratoga towers over the competition…horse should improve with added ground, too3 - Gaudreau (last week: 3)• The winner of the key race from Saratoga on August 8 defeating the top two; big acts to follow given what the other two have done recently but the Louisiana-bred deserves to be part of this triumvirate4 - Salahudin (last week: 4)• Could have been any one of four or five to fill this fourth slot; almost the antithesis of a typical Baffert 2YO - sluggish out of the gate, settles before finding stride and finishing while still showing greenness; may be more of a 3YO prospect but continues to improve…as good a 2YO male crop as we’ve seen in a whileJUVENILE FILLIES1 - Miss Monica (last week: 1)• Paired up 87 Beyers winning G1 DMR Debutante for Baffert; geared down for final 100 yards and still galloped out with interest…think she’ll improve around two-turns, too2 - Summer Starlet (last week: 2)• Done nothing wrong in two starts, including an open-length score in the G1 Spinaway that earned a 97 Beyer; wasn’t crazy about the gallop out and there’s a fair bit of speed / sprint on the bottom of her pedigree, but in the right hands with Asmussen and figures to continue to improve with age3 - Libby Lloyd (last week: 3)• Only a maiden victory on debut to her name so far but Chad Brown has spoken very highly of her; crushed a modest field by 10 at Saratoga in mid-August…will get a better sense of where she stacks up in next start4 - Manuka Honey (last week: 4)• Unbeaten in three starts including the Pocahontas at CD; far from the most visually appealing finish, getting final 1/4 in :26…but this is a very thin group of filliesJUVENILE TURF1 - How’s Al Today (last week: 1)• Ran twice at the Kentucky Downs meeting, including a stakes score which resulted in a 94 Beyer Speed Figure; division historically dominated by Euros but this one looks like he may be the goods2 - Folsom Blues (last week: 2)• Wicked kick over the final furlong winning the G1 Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at The Curragh; Joseph O’Brien indicated the Dewhurst may be next but didn’t rule out the possibility of sending the colt to the United States3 - Darkness Falls (last week: 3)• No surprise to see him shorten in the market to one of the favorites for next year’s Derby after authoritative victory in the Golden Fleece; Aidan O’Brien suggested a run in America wouldn’t be out of the question4 - Al Hudaiba (last week: 4)• Better than the final margin in the G1 Summer would suggest given he took a right-hand turn down the stretch; Charlie Appleby / Godolphin have played this tune successfully in the past, would be no surprise to see them do it againJUVENILE FILLIES TURF1 - Sun Goddess (last week: 1)• Must be special if Aidan O’Brien is referring to her as a “freak”; smashed in the Moyglare, and post race comments would suggest a run in the Cheveley Park followed by a try in the Breeders’ Cup could be on offer…also worth noting she thumped Folsom Blues at The Curragh in August2 - Senorita Bonita (last week: 2)• Crushed G1 company in the Prix Morny in August; pedigree on top suggests sprint but damsire is a real stamina influence…would think a mile should be within her scope3 - Vanta (last week: 3)• Plenty to like on tape watching her two wins to date, but stating the obvious - she’s jumping into the deep end of the pool going from the Del Mar 2YO turf fillies to international stars4 - Quibbler (last week: 4)• Only a maiden victory to her name so far, but visually ticked many boxes winning on debut at Kentucky Down for Riley Mott; blew doors off a field despite looking as though she had plenty of fitness still to gain, which will come with additional experience

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Thistledown | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $440,976 | Thistledown | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETPick 5 | $6,969 | Louisiana Downs | begins Race 3 | 6:01 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXFort Erie | Race 6 | 2:35 pm ETHorseshoe Indy | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETMountaineer | Race 1 | 7:00 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Ferrearo | Finger Lakes | all 5 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Fort Erie, Presque Isle | favorites won 5 of 8 races at both tracksPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Thistledown Bet $100, Get $10 Promo PicksFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section