Log In

XB Blog

4.4.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Saturday, April 4, 2026

EXTRA INCENTIVES$10 Money-Back Special | Blue Grass (Kee), Santa Anita Derby (SA), Wood Memorial (Aqu)$2,500 Late Pick 4 Hit & Split | Santa Anita | today$2,500 Late Pick 4 Hit & Split | Keeneland | todaySPECIAL WAGERSSunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 8-9-10; Santa Anita Races 10-11-12Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 9-10; Santa Anita Races 5-6-8TOURNAMENT TIME$1,500 Santa Anita Derby Challenge | details$500 Keeneland Grade One Gamble Qualifier | details$100 Keeneland Feeder | details$40 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSSunset 6 | Gulfstream/Santa Anita | $16,197 | begins GP Race 8 | 4:31 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | Keeneland | $12,594 | Race 11 | 6:22 pm ETKEY RACESAqueduct | Race 3 | 1:38 pm ET | Excelsior StakesLaurel | Race 7 | 3:03 pm ET | Heavenly Cause StakesAqueduct | Race 6 | 3:16 pm ET | Carter StakesLaurel | Race 8 | 3:36 pm ET | Whiteley StakesLaurel | Race 9 | 4:08 pm ET | Primonetta StakesLaurel | Race 10 | 4:40 pm ET | Native Dancer StakesKeeneland | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ET | Commonwealth StakesSanta Anita | Race 4 | 4:38 pm ET | Echo Eddie StakesKeeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET | Appalachian StakesKeeneland | Race 9 | 5:16 pm ET | Madison StakesAqueduct | Race 10 | 5:25 pm ET | Distaff StakesSanta Anita | Race 6 | 5:42 pm ET | Santa Anita OaksKeeneland | Race 10 | 5:49 pm ET | Shakertown StakesAqueduct | Race 11 | 5:56 pm ET | Gazelle StakesKeeneland | Race 11 | 6:22 pm ET | Blue Grass Stakes | Meet the ContendersAqueduct | Race 12 | 6:34 pm ET | Wood Memorial | Meet the ContendersOaklawn | Race 10 | 6:42 pm ET | Rainbow StakesSanta Anita | Race 8 | 6:46 pm ET | Evening Jewel StakesSanta Anita | Race 10 | 7:46 pm ET | Santa Anita Derby | Meet the ContendersSanta Anita | Race 11 | 8:18 pm ET | Monrovia StakesEvangeline | Race 9 | 10:07 pm ET | Evangeline Mile StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXTampa Bay | Race 6 | 2:50 pm ETKeeneland | Race 5 | 3:08 pm ETAqueduct | Race 12 | 6:34 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHBob Baffert | Santa Anita | all 7 entrants 5-1 or less odds (5 at 5-2 or less)DID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Tampa Bay | jockey Samuel Marin | 3 wins, 3 seconds, 2 thirds from 9 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Santa Anita Derby Day Full-Card PicksJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Hit & Split AnalysisScott Shapiro: Derby Prep Money-Back Special Promo PicksJeremy Plonk: Race of the Week – Madison at KeenelandFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Read Article
4.4.2026:

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, April 4, 2026

The Meadowlands has a 14-race card with the 0.50 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout, and it will be my focus.Race 6 (8:40 PM EDT)4-Rockme Rollme (3-1)-This will be the 1st race in the Soldano barn and the 1st time this outfit has claimed a horse in the past 365 days. Topped this kind last week, comes right back at the same level and Jason Bartlett is at the controls again. Beat 5 from this field in last and will string along.5-Order One To Go (4-1)-Finished 2nd and was placed 4th on a Dq after racing well. Came off cover with a 55.1 and 27.1 last panel to lose by a length. Mohawk shipper is coming off a big effort and will look for another similar try.6-Gallie Getaway (9/2)-Hasn't sealed the deal in the last 2 races. Missed a start 2 back after winning and was used off the gate in the last 2 races. Will take a swing at what should be a square price and could have an easier path off the gate to the top this time.Race 7 (9:05 PM EDT)4-Funtime Bayma (2-1)-Raced well from post 8 considering was hung the mile and it was the 1st start since 11-24. Dexter Dunn steers again, was over bet last week and finished 4th. Went off at 4/5, will be another small price and is 0-8 at M1. Almost faded but comes off a good try and gets post relief, so will use and hope for the better value below.5-Major Hothooves N (3-1)-This 6-year-old got the pocket after leaving from post 6 and finished 2nd. Has hit the board in both races coming off the bench. Could be better in the 3rd race since 9-6 and should be a fair price.Race 8 (9:30 PM EDT)2-Seasideescape (7/2)-Won 2 back at M1 versus softer than went back to Yonkers and was in tall cotton. Beaten chalk didn't leave, raced from the backfield, and rallied to come 3rd. Burned money last week, and now drops. Could be better on this track and Bartlett will provide an aggressive steer this time.6-Effingham (8-1)-Won and then was scratched sick. Then went off at 50-1 last time in a needed race from the 9-hole, now starts from a choice post and might be overlooked. Did pace the back half in .54 and could surprise but needs a smooth trip.7-Hurrikane Cheyenne (6-1)-Outraced its odds in last against a well-meant winner who got away with a soft opening quarter. The post helps the price, and this race could set up for someone coming off cover. Jordan Stratton knows how to tackle the leader down the lane.Race 9 (9:55 PM EDT)3-Stellar Yanker (10-1)-Team Stratton entry can dance with this kind but needs the right set-up. The veteran does its best work stalking close to the leader. That trip can work here and with Yannick Gingras and Joe B on the outside the pace could be hot.8-Southwind Gendry (5-1)-Took a picture at PcD then returned to M1 and drew the 10-hole. Was off 11-days and was used hard from post 10. Landed in the pocket and cashed a 3rd place check. Gets some post relief, this will be the 4th race since 12-13 and the pedal will be down. Using and fading the 3-1 program chalk #4 Water Sports Teen who is looking for its 3rd straight.$1 Early Pick 44,5,6/4,5/2,6,7/3,8Total Bet=$36Check me out on X!

Read Article
4.3.2026:

Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Blue Grass Saturday Hit & Split Late Pick 4 Analysis

Saturday’s Keeneland late pick 4 has a $2,500 Hit & Split promotion when you bet with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The all-stakes sequence begins in Race 8 and concludes with the $1.25 million Blue Grass. Also note the $10 money-back special on the Race 11 Blue Grass. Get up to $10 back if your win bet finishes second or third.Let’s get to work.Race 8: Appalachian Stakes#01 Imaginationthelady was 1 of an incredible 6 stakes winners last Fall Meet alone at Keeneland sired by Not This Time. Expect her to come back running over a course she’s liked. Her Brendan Walsh stablemate Lion Lake has the best BRIS late pace figures in the field and nailed #9 Sister Troienne on the line last time over a Gulfstream turf course that plays speedier than Keeneland’s. Give me the Walsh duo with Lion Lake the likely better price for intra-race bets.Race 9: Madison StakesAgainst the favorites here who project into a strong pace and heavily backing #4 Ragtime (5-1 ML) and Clicquot (6-1 ML). The series of triple-digit BRIS late pace figures for Ragtime should shine in the final yards. Speaking of pace figures, no less than 6 of these Madison entrants ran 100-plus BRIS early pace figs in their most-recent start, ensuring we will get a ton of pace to tackle.Race 10: Shakertown StakesMy least confident of the late pick 4 races, I’ll get some coverage in this full-field turf sprint. #4 Yellow Card is well-drawn and has been on the road before with a strong second at Kentucky Downs last year. The Californian can play here at 10-1 ML. Also at a price is 15-1 ML offering #9 No Nay Hudson. You just don’t see that kind of price on Wesley Ward and Joel Rosario in Keeneland turf sprints, where they’re absolutely dominant, so expect the price to shorten. No Nay Hudson’s last 2 BRIS late pace figures are strong in this race comparatively. #2 My Boy Prince is equally good late on figs, a super-classy sort who will try not to get buried inside but is a major threat at 6-1 ML. Finally, #8 Litigation, the 4-1 lukewarm ML choice may be best of all on late pace figures, has won 3 of his last 4 for Brian Lynch, who won here opening day and is a stalwart in turf sprints. I wasn’t bullish on #12 Usually Wrong even with his string of victories of late, but the Fair Grounds sprinters were highly effective here opening day and I’m not going to spread this deep without using him.Race 11: Blue Grass StakesThe favorites have total run of this race as #4 Reagan’s Honor will be up top with every chance to underscore his impressive allowance win at Fair Grounds. Morning line chalk #6 Further Ado would be absolutely no surprise for a Brad Cox barn that’s been on fire with 3YOs in recent weeks and this colt ran a career-best his only trip to Lexington. I just can’t see anyone else winning the Blue Grass. I was tempted to single Reagan’s Honor, but given the prices we have in the sequence, we can still get a strong return with Further Ado winning. Playing multiple tickets, use Reagan’s Honor on more of those.The Ticket:8,10 with 4,3 with 9,4,8,2,12 with 4,6 = $20 for each $0.50.

Read Article
4.3.2026:

1/ST POST: Why Play Today? Friday, April 3, 2026

SCHEDULE NOTESKeeneland | opening day | first post 1 pm ETSPECIAL WAGERSSunset Pick 6 | Gulfstream Races 7-8-9; Santa Anita Races 7-8-9Coast-to-Coast Pick 5 | Gulfstream Races 8-9; Santa Anita Races 3-4-5TOURNAMENT TIME$300 Santa Anita Derby Challenge | details$100 Keeneland Feeder | details$40 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | Aqueduct | $17,241 | begins Race 3 | 2:11 pm ETKEY RACESKeeneland | Race 5 | 3:08 pm ET | Lafayette StakesKeeneland | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ET | Beaumont StakesKeeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET | Transylvania StakesKeeneland | Race 9 | 5:16 pm ET | Ashland StakesOaklawn | Race 9 | 6:06 pm ET | Rainbow Miss StakesEvangeline | Race 3 | 7:24 pm ET | Acadiana StakesEvangeline | Race 8 | 9:40 pm ET | Spotted Horse StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 4 | 2:36 pm ETTampa Bay | Race 9 | 4:26 pm ETOaklawn | Race 10 | 6:38 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHVictor Barboza Jr. | Gulfstream | 5 of 6 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Aqueduct | jockey Flavien Prat | 3 wins, 2 thirds from 6 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy: Keeneland Opening Day Late Pick 4 AnalysisScott Shapiro: Santa Anita Friday Spot PlaysFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Read Article
4.3.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Santa Anita Spot Plays | Friday, April 3, 2026

After an early start to the racing week in Arcadia, CA, they are back it at again on Friday afternoon at Santa Anita Park for a 9-race card that kicks off at 4PM eastern/1PM local time. The slate features five turf events, including the $3 All-Turf Pick 3, which kicks off in Race 5. Here are a few horses I plan to lean on later today at The Great Race Place.Race 3:My first play comes in this $71,000 allowance that looks a lot like a Grade 3 over the grass where I like #3 Cabo Spirit. The 7YO gelding drops out of graded stakes company after a pair of speed and fade efforts to kick off his 2026 season. It is usually pretty simple with this George Papaprodromou trainee. If he makes the lead and can control the early tempo against a realistic group, he is tough to catch. That should be the case against this bunch that has a lack of early zip outside of my top choice. Look for Hall of Famer Mike Smith to aggressively get him to the front, attempt to back down the second quarter, and have enough left late to get to the wire first.Play: #3 Cabo Spriit (4-1 ML)Race 7:This state-bred MSW event for fillies and mares over the grass kicks off the $3 Late Pick 3, which of course has a 15% takeout. I will build my late Pick 3 around #2 Jennys Wine Girl. The daughter of Richard’s Kid makes her third consecutive start at this surface/distance/level for trainer Richard Baltas. She draws favorably along the inside this start after an outside post last time led to a different voyage than I expect from the 4YO filly later today. Either jockey Edwin Maldonado gets aggressive and tries to take it to this bunch or lets #7 All in the Game go and opts to sit a favorable trip just off a horse trying a route of ground for the first time. If Maldonado plays it right, it should lead to this gal’s first lifetime score.Play: #2 Jennys Wine Girl (3-1 ML)Race 9:With #1 Joint Venture looking like a likely winner in the eighth, it looks like a very hittable late Pick 3 heading into this allowance event down the hill. I will try to close it out cold with #5 Proof He Rides. The son of Idiot Proof makes his third start off the claim for trainer Jeff Mullins. Mullins claimed the 8YO gelding for $50k at Del Mar in early November and the transaction has paid dividends already. Hopefully, jockey Kyle Frey can angle him outside of likely speed #8 Virat, stalk that one intently early, and make a similar move to the one he did in late February. If so, they are running for second.Play: #5 Proof He Rides (4-1 ML)

Read Article
4.3.2026:

Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, April 3, 2026

Hoosier Park has a 14-race card with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a low 12% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 11 (9:20 PM EDT)6-Ilikeitlikethat (2-1)-Rolled home with a 55.2 back half, and a 27.1 last panel to come 2nd in the 1st start since 7-11. Did have breaking issues last year but stayed flat last time, and the preceding qualifier went without a hitch in 155.3. This will be the 3rd lifetime start, Brandon Bates steers again, and this looks like picture time if minds its manners.Race 12 (9:43 PM EDT)1-Noblesville (5/2)-Dropped and popped in last, went off at 9/5 and looked the part. Comes right back versus the same kind and has a chance to double dip. Draws the rail, likes to race on the point and new pilot Kyle Wilfong can work that game plan.3-Brigade (3-1)-The Burke 4-year-old beat the NW4 here, then shipped to MVR and missed doubling up by a nose against the same. Now takes on older but still fits and this time comes back in sequence.Race 13 (10:06 PM EDT)5-Backstreet Gambler (3-1)-Ryan Bellamy entry is still looking for the 1st win in 2026 and meets a beatable field. Couldn't connect against the $15k claimers and in both tries a tepid pace didn't help chances. Drops to a spot to shine and Wilfong should have in striking range at the head of the stretch.8-Leiter (6-1)-Dropped in last but drew the 9-hole, didn't make a move, and had no shot versus a well-meant winner. Now gets further class relief and like the one above should relish the company. Luke Plano has some gate speed to use and despite the post draw is worth a swing at this price.Race 14 (10:29 PM EDT)5-ER Rookie (7/2)-Comes off 2 dull races against better. Now drops and the last time in at this level came 2nd. That night got on the engine and faded. Has only 1 win in 9 starts this year and is in a spot to wake up meeting a field without a standout.6-Joker Rockwell (9/2)-Like the one above is off to slow start (5-0-1-2) after posting 8 wins last year and banking over $88k. Gets some post relief and John DeLong should be aggressive when the wings fold.$2 Late Pick 46/1,3/5,8/5,6Total Bet=$16Check me out on X!

Read Article
4.2.2026:

Jeremy Plonk: Keeneland Opening Friday Late Pick 4 Analysis

Keeneland opens its Spring Meet Friday with a couple of betting menu twists. I’ll focus on an old favorite here, the late pick 4. But also note wagering minimums have increased in the superfecta (now $0.50) and pick 3 (now $1), while the day’s final 3 races each card will comprise a $3 minimum late pick 3, piggybacking the popularity of the track’s $3 Keeneland Turf Pick 3 from recent seasons, which also continues this Spring.Let’s get to work.Race 7: Beaumont Stakes#2 Just Bluffing steps up in class but looks fastest early off a pair of 6-furlong efforts. This stakes has been dominated by those adding distance and those near the front throughout its decade back on dirt – plus, Luis Saez is a maestro in 7-furlong sprints at Keeneland. Morning line favorite #3 Sneaky Good would be no surprise for a Brad Cox-Flavien Prat tandem that’s won 3 of the last 4 editions of the Beaumont.Race 8: Transylvania StakesIn a stakes where seasonal debuts have found the winner’s circle 7 times in the last 16 years, don’t be afraid of a come-backer. Well-drawn #3 Noble Dynasty really interests me for Bill Mott. His juvenile BRIS late pace figures are better than anything in this race has run this year going long on grass and it’s a field with floundering finishers. Love the 8-1 morning line price in a stakes in which favorites have lost 9 of the last 10 and 6 straight. Will make a gutsy single here, and if we’re right, we separate if able to beat one of the big favorites in the races surrounding this. Zig when they zag.Race 9: Ashland StakesCrazy results are common in the Ashland over the past decade, so 4-5 morning line favorite #3 Zany may look best on paper, but few things are certain in this pitfall race. #4 French Fiction (9-2 ML) has pedigree to route and love Keeneland, speed to win twice easily sprinting at Oaklawn and a trainer in Mark Casse who upset this race at 9-1 last year. Upsets abound in the Ashland with 6 winners at 9-1 or more (average 15-1) in the last 10 spring editions on dirt. I respect Zany, but this is how we get an expanded return in the late pick 4 if we can nail this minor upsetter.Race 10: maiden special weightOutstanding depth to this race, and by not singling or adding cost by including short prices in other legs, we can spread our wings in this race. If we’re live to the finale, we’ll be sitting pretty with a limited investment This is a “bet a little to make a lot” ticket today. #9 Drop Shot (20-1 morning line) is my upset top pick and I’ll feather in a lengthy group of others behind him at minimal cost (just $1 per horse).The Ticket:2,3 with 3 with 4 with 9,5,10,2,1,4,10,12,3 = $9 for each $0.50.

Read Article
4.2.2026:

Scott Shapiro: Santa Anita Derby Day Full-Card Selections / Analysis | Saturday, April 4, 2026

I cannot wait until Saturday when not only there are three massive Triple Crown preps, but great undercards across the country as well. Santa Anita Park offers one of those with a 12-race slate that kicks off at 12PM local time and includes four other stakes events. Let’s dive in!Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: B-Use: 8 Struck By Her; 2 Marjoram; 6 Will Happen;Forecast: I loved #2 Marjoram’s debut at Churchill Downs over the off-track last November, but it is hard to want to push all-in on her in the opener. She has not raced since and now races over the lawn for the first time. If she takes to the surface, she is likely better than these, but a pair of fillies on the outside have the recency edge. #8 Struck By Her is the best proven finisher over the grass and #6 Will Happen is likely to get the jump on most of her rivals. I will use a few here to kick off a very playable early Pick 5.Race 2:Grade: B-Use: 1 Comedy Town; 5 Crude VelocityForecast: This first-level allowance at 6.5-furlongs over the main track marks an interesting return spot for good looking debut winner #5 Crude Velocity. The Beau Liam colt was impressive besting a field of solid 3YO prospects last month despite a less-than-ideal voyage from his inside draw. The interesting part is he takes on older more seasoned horses in his second career start instead of opting to take on a field of fellow 3YOs. I prefer him to stablemate #7 March of Time, but will use the veteran #1 Comedy Town as well. The 8YO draws the rail, which is not ideal, but has won 8 of 40 career races. Experience has to be good for something.Race 3:Grade: A-Use: 1 Duke SilverForecast: I am not in love with the rail, but I absolutely love everything else about #1 Duke Silver in this MSW event for 3YOs over the main track. The son of Silver State commanded $335,000 at the OBS April 2025 sale, which is massive considering his sire stands for just $7500. He ran well in the same race Crude Velocity exits on Big Cap Day and meets a much softer field after gaining invaluable racing experience last out. If he avoids trouble from the rail, he should handle this field.Race 4: Echo EddieGrade: B-Use: 1 Galloping Ghost; 2 FionelloForecast: I am going to hope for serious separation from the public here in the horizontals with a pair of Cal-breds that hopefully get a big setup in this year’s $125,000 Echo Eddie. The 6.5-furlong affair has three runners in the compact group of six that like to be forwardly placed. If they go at it early, things could fall apart late. Many will use 3-2-ML favorite #4 Thirsty Rebel hoping he gets the perfect trip, but I am leery about his ability to settle off a hot pace as well. So, I will take a big swing with a pair of late runners drawn down on the inside.Race 5:Grade: C+Use: 12 Kawazaki; 4 Zalamo; 6 Vantastic; 9 Hotrocket; 5 Jimmy Blue JeansForecast: An absolutely wide-open $25k open claimer over the grass concludes the early Pick 5 and I lack a strong opinion unfortunately. I will use several in here with the hopes that the pace is contentious at the very least. If so, there are some intriguing off the pace options without question.Race 6: Santa Anita Oaks (G2)Grade: XUse: 5 MeaningForecast: We will likely shall see how #5 Meaning stacks up nationally in the Kentucky Oaks (G1) on the first Saturday in May because not only does she look like the most talented filly in this year’s Santa Anita Oaks (G2), but also the one that should trip out. The Gun Runner filly’s only loss came when she finished fourth in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1). I would be surprised if she loses, but her price is far too short at the same time.Race 7:Grade: C+Use: 10 Big Vengeance; 3 Booked ClubhouseForecast: It is tough to be overconfident in any of the runners signed on to this MSW event over the grass for Cal-breds. #3 Booked Clubhouse is the most proven commodity. He has run out of room in his last two starts, but perhaps that is not coincidence. He may just lack a will to win. That said, those without racing experience do little for me in this spot, so I will use him and #10 Big Vengeance. The son of Mr. Big cuts back in distance and draws favorably to the outside. If he can get the jump on Booked Clubhouse and some of his other main rivals, he is capable of springing the upset.Race 8: Evening JewelGrade: C+Use: 5 Another Zero; 7 Mohaven; 3 Cecilia StreetForecast: There is a decent chance this 6.5-furlong dash over the main track for Cal-bred 3YO fillies is bet like a two-horse race between #5 Another Zero and #7 Mohaven. Mohaven was made the even-money favorite, but I prefer the lighter raced Another Zero. The daughter of I’ll Have Another ran very well on debut to finish second and backed it up with a dominant win at odds-on in her second career start. She has unlimited upside at this point, but needs to avoid getting caught up in an early tussle. If they go fast upfront, perhaps #3 Cecilia Street can steal it with the last move. The Leonard Powell trainee moves back to the dirt and cuts back in distance after a third-place finish in the Cal Cup Oaks in mid-January off just 8 days rest. She is fully rested now and potentially primed for her best.Race 9:Grade: BUse: 10 Prince Dolce; 8 King of DragonsForecast: The pace should be contentious at the very least in this state-bred first-level allowance event at one mile over the grass. #12 Call Me Sir and #8 King of Dragons were made the two ML favorites in a relatively wide-open race and both have the right running style to take advantage. That said, Call Me Sir has a challenging draw and has not won since October ’24. King of Dragons is a very difficult horse to ride, but I prefer his upside to Call Me Sir. I like #10 Prince Dolce most though. The son of Sir Prancealot is the best finisher in the field. I am not in love with the addition of blinkers by trainer Steve Knapp, but the veteran conditioner does sport a solid recent ROI when adding the shades for the first time. Hopefully, it helps Prince Dolce finish with intent instead of making him keener during the early stages.Race 10:Grade: BUse: 7 Intrepido; 1 Cherokee NationForecast: The final Grade 1 on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is conducted at the Great Race Place at 7:46 eastern/4:46 local time. The featured event on a strong 11-race card has two Bob Baffert runners listed as the two ML choices. I am not sure #2 Potente will go favored over #1 Cherokee Nation, but only one of the two has the upside I am looking for. #2 Potente was all out to beat a modest group in the San Felipe (G2), while Cherokee Nation woke up and ran off the screen breaking his maiden against a field of 3YOs and up. I much prefer Cherokee Nation of the two, but expect him to get over bet, so will take a swing on top with #7 Intrepido. The son of Maximus Mischief makes his second start of the year after a runner-up effort in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) in January. He broke sharp and was part of the early pace that day, but with the outside draw and speed to his inside, I expect jockey Hector Berrios to opt to relax this ridgling a bit in the early stages. If he is able to do so, I think he should be full of run late. He should be a fair price. Hopefully, he runs back to his American Pharoah (G1) effort over this same surface.Race 11: Monrovia (G3)Grade: XUse: 1 Queen Maxima (pictured)Forecast: I have no desire to take on 4-5-ML favorite #1 Queen Maxima in the final stakes race on the Santa Anita Derby Day menu. The 5YO mare returned in style in mid-January with a win in the Las Cinnegas (G3) and should have no issue getting to the wire first again assuming she can avoid trouble being down on the inside. She is not a great wager probably, but betting against her appears unwise as well.Race 12:Grade: B+Use: 11 Somerset WestForecast: They saved one of my top plays of the day for the finale, which is fine by me! #11 Somerset West ran better than her fourth-place finish suggests on debut for the John Sadler barn. Not only was Sadler chilly at the time and not necessarily known for winning with first-time starters on the grass, but this filly was by far the one finishing best in that full field MSW field. I love the outside draw for this daughter of Kantharos. Hopefully, the experience helps her gate issues. Antonio Fresu will be the pilot this time around.

Read Article
Load More