The G1 Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf Sprint is the main event on Saturday's Opening Day at Kentucky Downs for their 2026 meet and goes as Race 7. All eyes will be on the morning line favorite AG BULLET (4) as she seeks her third-consecutive victory in this event. Below you’ll find my fair win odds for her and the rest of the ladies scheduled to take part, as well as my thoughts on which contenders I find most appealing.Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet be sure to register for the daily $3,000 Exacta-Thon promotion on each day of racing this season at Kentucky Downs.1 – Movin’ On Up / 5% / 19-12 – Love Cervere / 3% / 32-13 – Zeitlos / 9% / 10-14 – Ag Bullet / 32% / 2-15 – Time to Dazzle / 6% / 15-16 – Jody’s Pride / 3% / 32-17 – Cloe / 8% / 12-18 – Sayidah Dariyan / 10% / 9-19 – In Our Time / 14% / 6-110 – Spirited Boss / 4% / 24-111 – Vina Ariana / 5% / 19-112 – Buttercream Babe / 1% / 99-1The analysis of the Ladies Turf Sprint must begin with AG BULLET (4), a mare whose shown herself to be among the elite turf sprinters in the country for the better part of three years now. While having run just once since November of last year, the daughter of Twirling Candy acquitted herself nicely, finishing a gutsy second in the G1 Jaipur at Saratoga on June 6. She’s two-for-two in her career when racing in Franklin, KY, but that may not be her greatest asset in Saturday’s race. The fact that Ag Bullet has speed is an enormous edge in general, but especially so when handicapping this race. For a turf sprint (albeit one of the longer variety), there is a shocking lack of early zip signed on. As the speed nearest the rail, Florent Geroux can dictate terms as he pleases; if nobody is intent, take the initiative. If someone sends from the outside, let them clear and flip outside to a flanking position. It’s hard to envision a poor trip coming for Ag Bullet – you just need to decide what price is or isn’t fair. In my eyes, 2-1 would represent a fair price on Ag Bullet to win her third Ladies Turf Sprint.The obvious lack of pace in the race makes IN OUR TIME (9) an appealing option, even if she’s not as talented as Ag Bullet. One of two entered for Saffie Joseph, Jr., the five-year-old daughter by Not This Time has run well in two trips to Franklin in her career, including a victory last year at today’s trip in frontrunning fashion. Some people may be discouraged by her losses at Saratoga over the past few months, but there are legitimate excuses for each of the races. The dull effort in the Intercontinental on June 4 was largely due to a stumble at the start (even if it wasn’t too severe); that cost her the ability to go forward and race on or near the lead as she typically does. Then, in the Caress, she caught up in a blistering pace, paying the price and fading to finish a well-beaten third. She has many races on her page that would make her a threat in this spot, including a second in last November’s Matriarch when she finished ahead of today’s favorite, Ag Bullet. Overall, it’s difficult to argue that In Our Time is as talented as Ag Bullet. That’s what makes the parimuteul game beautiful, though; Ag Bullet may not offer a fair enough price to play – but In Our Time may. At least that’s my hope.CLOE (7) is a threat as a filly who is peaking at the right time headed into her first career grade one try for trainer Mike Maker. A winner of back-to-back starts over the last few months, the daughter of Tiz the Law has shown a serious late kick that commands respect in this spot. I’d be more bullish about her if it seemed as though there would be a barbecue near the front to set things up for her, but it doesn’t seem like that’s going to happen.Much of the same can be said about ZEITLOS (3), who is coming off a monster performance at Saratoga a few weeks back for trainer Steve Asmussen. Admittedly, I questioned if she was as good as she once was – a question that looks quite foolish now given her last two tries. The 2.5 she earned on Thorograph August 14 is every bit as fast as what we’ve seen from Ag Bullet, but the great equalizer is running style. I’m just not convinced she’s going to be able to make up the ground needed in the late stages, primarily because of the pace scenario I’m expecting.SAYIDAH DARIYAN (8) deserves a shout making her U.S. debut following a narrow defeat in the Oak Tree at Goodwood in late July. She’s shown versatility when it comes to her running style, but often we see European shippers come stateside and lag behind the pacemakers. If she breaks, she’s dangerous. If she sits back and tries to run the big girl down? She’s probably settling for a minor award.THE PICKS: 9-4-7-8THE PLAYS: WIN - IN OUR TIME (9) at odds of 6-1 or greaterTRIFECTAS - 4,9 with 4,9 with 7,8

TOURNAMENT TIME$500 Charles Town Classic PWCBC Qualifier | details$100 Saratoga Feeder | details$80 Del Mar Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot pick 6 | Monmouth | $35,079 | begins Race 2 | 2:38 pm ETJackpot super hi 5 | Woodbine | $35,760 (CAN) | Race 8 | 4:51 pm ETMandatory payout pick 6 | Charles Town | $96,814 | begins Race 8 | 8:32 pm ETKEY RACESBelterra | Race 6 | 3:05 pm ET | Tomboy StakesBelterra | Race 8 | 4:05 pm ET | Buckeye Native StakesSaratoga | Race 7 | 4:32 pm ET | West Point StakesSaratoga | Race 8 | 5:07 pm ET | Waya StakesCharles Town | Race 4 | 6:32 pm ET | Shenandoah StakesCharles Town | Race 8 | 8:32 pm ET | Pink Ribbon StakesCharles Town | Race 9 | 9:05 pm ET | Hilton Memorial StakesCharles Town | Race 10 | 9:44 pm ET | Charles Town OaksCharles Town | Race 11 | 10:25 pm ET | Charles Town ClassicCharles Town | Race 12 | 10:55 pm ET | Gall Memorial StakesRemington Park | Race 9 | 11:14 pm ET | OK Stallion StakesCharles Town | Race 13 | 11:25 pm ET | Sadie Hawkins StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXColonial Downs | Race 9 | 4:42 pm ETSaratoga | Race 10 | 6:15 pm ETDel Mar | Race 8 | 8:42 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Farrior | Charles Town | 5 of 7 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Saratoga | jockey Manny Franco | 3 wins, 2 seconds, 1 third from 8 mountsYesterday | Charles Town | trainer Jeff Runco | 3 wins from 4 startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli: Charles Town Classic $96K Carryover Pick 6 AnalysisScott Shapiro: Saratoga Spot Plays for FridayJeremy Plonk: Del Mar Spot Plays for FridayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

With just one day until the Midsummer Derby, racing resumes at Saratoga Race Course for a ten-race card that includes a pair of stakes events. The $200k West Point for NY-breds followed by the Waya (G3) headline the card with plenty of other strong action to be had. Here are a few horses I like most to kickoff Travers weekend in New York.Race 5:This MSW event for 2YO fillies over the Inner Turf is a competitive one where I landed on second-time starter #3 Bittersweet Memory. The NBS Stable homebred flipped in the paddock earlier this summer before her planned debut then actually competed for the first time on August 1 where she stalked the slow early pace of even-money favorite Voyager and could not go with that one late. The daughter of The Factor ended up finishing a well-beaten third on debut and returns to the races four weeks later for trainer Kelsey Danner. She draws favorably along the inside and benefits from a rider change to the more aggressive Luis Saez. There are a number of young fillies here that should take a step forward with this gal being one of them. She should offer strong value to kick off the Pick 6.Play: #3 Bittersweet Memory (8-1 ML)Picks: 3-2-10Race 7: West PointLast time #4 Mi Bago took on fellow NY-breds, he dominated the Kingston in frontrunning fashion on June 3. The son of Vekoma has won 2 of 4 over the Saratoga grass and attempts to win in a very similar spot close to three months later for trainer Mark Casse. The difference is the presence of #6 Itsallcomintogetha and #7 Sounds Like a Plan. I am not sure if they are as fast as Mi Bago, but they should at the very least keep him completely honest in the first of two stakes races on the program. I am hopeful this sets things up for 7YO veteran #5 Tonka Warrior. The Cupid gelding has competed mostly in the Midwest against open company foes throughout his career for trainer McLean Robertson. Robertson has given Tonka Warrior time since rattling off two wins and a second going a mile over the grass at Canterbury Downs in a six-week time span. He comes in fresh and should have an honest pace to run at under jockey Julio Hernandez.Play: #5 Tonka Warrior (8-1 ML)Picks: 5-8-4Race 8: Waya (G3)My final play of the afternoon comes in this 1 3/8-miles excursion over the Inner Turf where I like #1 Evershed. The daughter of Churchill makes the second start of her 4YO campaign for trainer Arnaud Delacour after watching a 5-2-shot control the early tempo in a second-level allowance in Virginia and hang on to win late. That race was at a shorter than ideal distance for the Irish-bred that moves to an inside draw, gets more ground, and attracts the services of Flavien Prat. There is lots to like about the runner-up in last year’s Saratoga Oaks Invitational (G2) that appears to be sitting on a career best run second off the bench.Play: #1 Evershed (5-1 ML)Picks: 1-4-7

A solid $17 score closed the Thursday 4-play slate for us and carries positive mojo into Friday. An 8-race card awaits that alternates dirt-turf on the odd-even races throughout, but the only double-digit field size will be the finale. Multi-race bets come into play more with shorter fields and you’ll want to capitalize on any win pool overlays you might spot. Intra-race exotics lack the same value they offer many days.Each day this summer at Del Mar, I’ll be handicapping the action with my top plays on the card – including full-card selections for a featured program each week (this week’s full-card will be Sunday – providing more focus away from Travers Saturday at Saratoga).Del Mar: Race 4 | 6:34 pm ET#4 Sand Bagger (5-2 morning line odds) gets the right pace set-up with questionable early speed types lining up to set the table for the new addition to the Peter Miller barn. Like the jockey move here to Hector Berrios. Both the trainer and the jockey are winning 20% with positive ROIs on grass at the meeting. His open-company $50,000 maiden claiming victory arguably is the best victory among this group of non-winners of 2 lifetime. Win 4. Daily Double 4-5. Picks 4-1-7Del Mar: Race 5 | 7:06 pm ET#5 Imnotvanillasky (12-1 morning line odds) was respectable over the track in 2 starts vs. tougher last summer and returns off an October layoff. Gets first-time Lasix and its notable that Mark Glatt’s barn has picked up steam, winning 3 of its last 11 after going 6-for-44 (14%) through August 20. Glatt and jockey Abel Lezcano are 10: 2-2-1 in tandem this season ($10, $19 winners) despite average odds of 11-1 on those runners. Win-place #5. Picks 5-1-4Del Mar: Race 7 | 8:42 pm ET#1 Speedy Wilson (3-1 morning line odds) has been a Del Mar horse-for-course (7: 3-1-1) as many of these Tough Sunday offspring are (38% wins, $2.35 ROI for every $1 bet in recent seasons). Rider switch from Ayuso to Rosario looks like go time for trainer Phil D’Amato off a decent try vs. similar and appreciative of the extra 110 yards in distance Friday. Win 1. Picks 1 over 6-5-3.

Yonkers Raceway has an 11-race card. The Spot Plays are in Race 1, Race 5, and Race 8. They can be used in Win Bets or Gimmicks, and all are driven by Jordan Stratton. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 1 (6:45 PM EDT)3-Bully Boy Hill (5/2)-This is the 2nd morning line favorite who comes off a win and steps up. Will lean here and fade the program chalk who drew the rail, drops but is only 1-24 at YR. Jordon Stratton takes the lines, and could offer a fair price. May look to work the same plan as last time and go gate to wire, but a 2-hole trip could work also.3-2-5Race 5 (8:05 PM EDT)3-Chanceoflighting (7/2)-Didn't get as good of a trip as the line appears. Worked to get the top, was urged to do so and then a 27.4 third panel was probably the last straw. Jordan Stratton could provide a smoother journey this time and has the gate speed to race on the point or close to it. Could beat the chalk that leaves from the rail with a sharp steer.3-4-1Race 8 (9:05 PM EDT)4-Worklifebalance (7/2)-Drops after cashing checks versus Invites and now lands in a spot to shine. Stratton should have the mare in striking range around the last turn. Did win 2 straight at YR versus similar this summer. Can down this crew with a smooth trip and has won 5 of 20 on the Hilltop.4-5-2Check me out on X!

It has been another wild summer of thoroughbred racing from coast-to-coast with plenty of drama to go along with outstanding wagering and competition. It reaches its pinnacle on Saturday when it is Travers Day in Saratoga Springs. The 14-race slate led by the Midsummer Derby is a strong one with five other graded stakes races on the undercard and another big promotion at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. The Travers Day Trifecta-Thon challenges customers to hit four or more $1 trifectas over the course of the afternoon at the Spa. Those who hit at least four will win their share of $7500, while the player(s) that connects on the most will split an additional $2500. Here is how I see things in all 14 races.Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: C+Use: 6 Beau Valor; 5 Exhibit; 3 Up to the Task/7 Club ReignForecast: The opener is a MSW event for 2YOs at six-furlongs where I will roll with all first-time starters. #3 Up to the Task was made the 5-2-ML favorite after selling for $525k at the OBS March sale. The son of Nashville clearly looked the part in Florida and makes as much sense as any of the new comers. I prefer #6 Beau Valor though. His sire Beau Liam stands for just $6k, yet this colt commanded $525k at Keeneland last September. He along with #5 Exhibit draw outside the favorite and appear well-meant heading into their first try.Race 2:Grade: B-Use: 8 Emphasis; 4 Oil Capital; 6 Sculcos Folly; 5 AnywayForecast: 8-5-ML favorite #6 Sculos Folly returns to Saratoga after tiring late as the 3-5-favorite in the New York Derby at Finger Lakes at a 1 1/16-miles. That was the Richard Dutrow trained colt’s first start around two-turns and it led to a much slower performance than any of his previous few starts. The NY-bred takes on open company foes for the first time since January, but if he gets back to his win in the Mike Lee, they are running for second place. That said, it is a gambling game and there are three solid prices that can spring the upset if Sculos Folly fails to repeat his efforts in the spring. Linda Rice trains two of them. #5 Anyway has won two in a row against state-breds this summer and fits well in here, while #4 Oil Capital is an intriguing long shot. The son of Maclean’s Music has good speed from the gate, but can relax a touch if need be, in the early stages. He was on the wrong part of the track last time when finishing third at 14-1 and makes his third start of the form cycle. #8 Emphasis is the wild card. The Todd Pletcher trainee has not been seen in over thirteen months, but won impressively on debut over this oval as a 2YO. The fact they are bringing him back on Travers Day leads me to believe he is ready to fire a big one.Race 3:Grade: B-Use: 3 Fedupwiththefed; 9 Fabian’s PrincessForecast: I lack trust in the ML favorites in this state-bred first-level allowance at 6.5-furlongs over the main track, so I will take a swing with a pair of prices, including top choice #3 Fedupwiththefed. I take it as a positive that trainer David Donk wheels this Central Banker filly back on just two weeks rest after a runner-up effort out of the Wilson chute. Donk legs up jockey Johnny Velazquez on the cutback to one-turn. The price should be right to gamble on her being set for her best third off the freshening.Race 4:Grade: CUse: 8 Alto Blues; 6 Feline CuriousForecast: I also lack trust in the logicals in this first-level allowance at two-turns on the grass, but do not have much confidence in any horses entered. I will go with a pair of prices on top with first-time States competitor #8 Alto Blues and #6 Feline Curious as my top choices. Alto Blues could get forgotten by the public since Miguel Clement’s other runner is the 2-1-ML choice. He comes in off a steady series of drills at Belmont Park. #6 Feline Curious had things his way on the front end in his maiden victory earlier this month, but perhaps is a son of Kitten’s Joy on the rise. Tyler Gaffalione is likely to stalk off the early speed for #2 Iron Palace in this colt’s first try versus winners.Race 5:Grade: B-Use: 8 Sammy C Note/9 Sir OscarForecast: I like the chances of #8 Sammy C Note most in this state-bred first-level allowance over the Inner Turf. The son of Good Samaritan nearly earned a win in his first start versus winners at two-turns on July 25, but ran out of real estate. Trainer Michael Miceli brings him back in a similar spot, but half a furlong longer where he should sit a favorable stalking trip with Jose Ortiz taking the call for the first time. He has been a different horse since moving into Miceli’s barn and should continue to prove that in the final leg of the early Pick 5.Race 6:Grade: B-Use: 2 Virabhadrasana; 6 Sayatara; 3 Foxiest; 5 Letter of CreditForecast: #3 Foxiest certainly has the sexiest pedigree in this MSW event for 2YO fillies over the main track. The daughter of Gun Runner is out of champion mare Covfefe, so she is clearly bred to be a serious filly. The LNJ Foxwoods homebred has been training regularly at Churchill Downs in preparation for her debut and makes a lot of sense, but taking on short prices on big pedigree first-time starters is far from a long-term winning formula. #2 Virabhadrasna has the experience edge over the majority of her rivals. The daughter of Jackie’s Warrior was off slow and raced against the flow on debut, but was the one from the back showing by far the most interest late. A move forward should be expected. In addition to Foxiest, a pair of other first-time starters offer solid win early pedigrees for top barns. #5 Letter of Credit debuts for Chad Brown and is out of a mare that won her first two starts, while #6 Saytara makes her first start for Todd Pletcher and is out of a mare that not only won by more than seven lengths on debut, but came right back to win the Forward Gal (G3). Both should offer solid value given the money expected to go to Foxiest.Race 7:Grade: B-Use: 6 River Ride; 5 ShelzawaForecast: I will take a swing on top in this first-level allowance for 3YO fillies over the grass with #6 River Ride. The daughter of Not This Time makes her second start versus winners after being caught wide throughout against similar on July 25. She had things her way at Aqueduct two-back to break her maiden on the front end, but showed talent in her others starts over the grass. She can find her way into the mix at the very least with a better trip under Jose Lezcano.Race 8: H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1)Grade: B-Use: 5 Local KnowledgeForecast: The stakes action starts with this seven-furlong dash for 3YOs over the main track where #4 Englishman is likely to be a huge favorite. The son of Maxfield lost for the first time in the Pat Day Mile (G2), but bounced back with a massive effort in the Woody Stephens (G1). No 3YO in the world will beat the Cherie DeVaux trainee if he repeats his last, but some level of regression has to be expected. Given the likely differential in odds, I will try to beat the chalk with #5 Local Knowledge. Clearly the son of Yaupon has not been as dynamic as Englishman, but at the same point has done very little wrong thus far. He beat a strong maiden field on debut at Keeneland, but was scratched out of his next start scheduled in Florida and did not return until June where he was actually better than I anticipated despite failing the public. He bounced back in a big way besting a field of seven in the Amsterdam (G2) and should be a fair price given the presence of Englishman and 3-1-second choice #2 Deep Flame. Hopefully, he is set for a career defining run.Race 9: Personal Ensign (G1)Grade: XUse: 2 Fully SubscribedForecast: This year’s Personal Ensign appears to be a rematch between the top two finishers in last month’s Shuvee (G2) where it was #2 Fully Subscribed nailing #4 Scottish Lassie right on the wire. I have a tough time backing Scottish Lassie after giving up a three-length lead in the lane last out. Perhaps, she will be a bit tighter with the race off the freshening out of the way, but it sure is difficult to go back to the Jorge Abreu filly with confidence. This leads me to Fully Subscribed. The daughter of Tiz the Law is not a world beater, but has only finished out of the exacta once in eight starts. She should earn her first Grade 1 score in this nine-furlong event over the Saratoga dirt.Race 10: Lake Placid (G2)Grade: C+Use: 5 Naomis; 4 Deep LearningForecast: Trainer Chad Brown has won this one-mile event for 3YO fillies over the Inner Turf a record six times and holds a strong 1-2-punch again in 2026 with #4 Deep Learning and #5 Naomis. Both are in with serious chances, but I will side with European invader Naomis. The French-bred makes her first start in the States off the freshening with her most recent run being a Grade 2 score at Chantilly in late May. She attracts Flavien Prat despite him being aboard Deep Learning in all, but one of her lifetime starts. Both of them have a significant chance to best 2-1-ML favorite Queen of Hawaii. The Lindy Farms filly got a great ride and split in her first start off the bench on July 9, but has to prove herself against a tougher group.Race 11: Forego (G1)Grade: C+Use: 6 Senior Officer; 5 Book’em DannoForecast: Jersey-bred Book’em Danno won this race a year ago before going to the sidelines until June and has won 5 of 6 over this surface, but is going to take a ton of public support. The question is not whether the 5YO gelding is capable of winning his third in a row, but what price is too short on him considering he has regressed from a number’s perspective in 2026. I will not go crazy trying to beat the favorite, but do think #6 Senior Officer is in with a solid chance to get to the wire first. The Maryland-bred takes on stakes foes for the first time for Brad Cox after overcoming traffic issues to run down #1 Tip Top Thomas in a high-level allowance event last month. The lightly-raced gelding has also shown an affinity for the surface and draws outside his main rival.Race 12: Ballerina (G1)Grade: BUse: 2 Kilwin; 7 Ways and Means; 11 Beauty Reigns; 12 EclatantForecast: Outside of the main event, this seven-furlong dash for fillies and mares is clearly the best of the stakes races on the Travers card. 9-5-ML favorite #7 Ways and Means is the clear horse to beat off of her win in the Bed O’ Roses (G2) in early June. She has been dominant over this surface, but is likely to be tested big-time against this full field. I will hope the pace is hot early setting things up for the late run of #2 Kilwin. The Twirling Candy filly came back off a lengthy layoff at Ellis Park last month in a non-graded stake and proved once again she can finish with serious energy on the dirt. She earned a neck win last summer in the Test (G1) and gets the hottest rider in the country in the saddle. She and #11 Beauty Reigns should be rolling late at solid prices if the race plays out like I expect early on.Race 13: Travers (G1)Grade: B-Use: 5 Sea Strike; 9 Golden Tempo; 4 The Puma; 2 Leading ChangeForecast: The featured event for the meet came up about as strong as one could hope with the top three from the Kentucky Derby, the Preakness winner, and a few new shooters with talent all lined up to go ten-furlongs over the main track. I talked in detail on both Horse Cents with Bailey Armour and the 1/ST Call Podcast with Jeremy Plonk this week on the big race so check those out for a more in-depth chat, but I will once again try to beat the late running #5 Renegade and #9 Golden Tempo. Of the two, I trust Golden Tempo to run his race more, but at some point, his ability to just stay the distance is likely to run into a horse that has speed, as well as the stamina to get the classic distance. #5 Sea Strike could be that colt despite being bred to sprint. The Chad Brown trainee stalked the early pace and finished strong against lesser in the Curlin and should get a great trip on the class test under Flavien Prat. He is my top choice, but #2 Leading Change and #4 The Puma also could be primed for a big run at solid prices.Race 14:Grade: XUse: 4 That’s How We LoveForecast: I have no interest in trying to best 6-5-ML favorite #4 That’s How We Love in the finale. The Justify filly put on a show in her debut at Monmouth Park last month and meets just an okay bunch in the Travers Day finale. She might get over bet off the big win, but I will opt to chalk it out to close the big card.

The Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager returns Friday and horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can get in early on the $7 million main event at Keeneland on Oct. 31. A total of 23 wagering interests will be presented in the Futures – 22 individual runners and an all-others option. Antiquarian was originally included but has been retired before wagering commences. The $2 minimum play has a 16% takeout and will be offered from noon Friday through 6 pm ET on Sunday, which gives players time to process any Charles Town Classic and Travers Stakes news from this Friday and Saturday.A second Breeders’ Cup Classic Future Wager will be offered Sept. 25-27, surrounding the Lukas Classic at Churchill Downs, Goodwood at Santa Anita and Oklahoma Derby at Remington Park.My future wager approach is that I want at least double the projected price on raceday for horses who still have 1 prep race to complete. That’s not being pie-in-the-sky this weekend when you consider 24 wagering interests here vs. 14 max in the Breeders’ Cup and often a Classic field size that could be in the single digits.Let’s look at the 23 possibilities in 3 pockets: Most Likely Starters, Reasonable Chance to Start and Least Likely Starters. Your fair odds assessment has to start with their likely availability to compete. Each runner is listed with betting number, trainer, morning line odds and projected next start.Most Likely Starters24-All Others Not Listed, 8-1, Breeders’ Cup Classic 10/31 (Kee)13-Magnitude, Steve Asmussen, 10-1, Breeders’ Cup Classic 10/31 (Kee)6-Forever Young, Yoshito Yahagi, 5-1, Jockey Club Gold Cup 9/18 (Bel)21-Sovereignty, Bill Mott, 4-1, Jockey Club Gold Cup 9/18 (Bel)3-Baeza, Bill Mott, 15-1, Goodwood 9/26 (SA)Considerations among this grouping:A win in the JCGC by Forever Young or Sovereignty makes either almost certainly post-time favorite if able to get to the Classic. Neither seems like a play now as second-off-the-plane is generally a negative for foreign raiders (Forever Young) and Sovereignty has been managed cautiously and scratched from last year’s Classic pre-race. In other words: wait. Magnitude should love a speedy Keeneland strip and will be fresh with obviously more early speed than the presumed Classic co-favorites. Perhaps he loathes Saratoga and can be forgiven of his Whitney, but he may be close to 10-1 on raceday off that effort anyway, depending how the field shakes out. Not a bad buy but you’ll need fair odds closer to 20-1 this weekend, which isn’t likely. As for the All Others option, it’s likely to get you raceday action, but it’s most likely contribution would come from steep outsiders domestically or international runners from Aidan O’Brien et al who’ve had a checkered history in this race historically.Reasonable Chance to Start11-Knightsbridge, Bill Mott, 6-1, Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile or Classic 10/31 (Kee)17-Renegade, Todd Pletcher, 12-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)8-Golden Tempo, Cherie DeVaux, 12-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)9-Hit Show, Brad Cox, 80-1, Lukas Classic 9/26 (CD)20-Skippylongstocking, Saffie Joseph Jr., 70-1, Charles Town Classic 8/28 (CT)4-Commandment, Brad Cox, 40-1, Pennsylvania Derby 9/19 (Prx)7-Further Ado, Brad Cox, 70-1, Pennsylvania Derby 9/19 (Prx)2-Baby Vino, Lindsay Schultz, 50-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)18-Sea Strike, Chad Brown, 30-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)23-The Puma, Gustavo Delgado, 40-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)Considerations among this grouping:Hard to take a short price on the ‘now horse’ Knightsbridge when the connections also have Sovereignty for the Classic and were not apt to run Cody’s Wish in the Classic even after his Whitney stretch-out win. I think he’s 67%-33% more to the Dirt Mile. The Travers result on Saturday is going to be tell-tale for many 3-year-olds. Even in victory, Golden Tempo wouldn’t seem assured to go on to the Classic as he’s been lightly campaigned post-Derby. Connections would seem gung-ho to run Renegade so long as he comes with his usual late run, but little value at 12-1 unless he dazzles Saturday. Sea Strike is the fresh, late bloomer in the Travers and could skyrocket up consideration if able to win Saturday in just his fourth start. Brad Cox’s PA Derby horses may be most interesting here and present the best value: Further Ado (who loves Keeneland) and Commandment (true 10F horse). Cox hasn’t been in a mindset to push Hit Show to the Breeders’ Cup, instead shopping easier spots, and a similar approach has been employed by Saffie Joseph Jr. with Skippylongstocking (always a Dirt Mile possibility).Most Unlikely Starters15-Nitrogen, Mark Casse, 20-1, Locust Grove 9/12 (CD)16-Phileas Fogg, Gustavo Rodriguez, 25-1, Jockey Club Gold Cup 9/18 (Bel)10-Iron Honor, Chad Brown, 90-1, Pennsylvania Derby 9/19 (Prx)5-Emerging Market, Chad Brown, 90-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)12-Leading Change, Brad Cox, 60-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)14-Napoleon Solo, Chad Summers, 50-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)19-Silent Tactic, Mark Casse, 60-1, Travers 8/29 (Sar)22-Ted Noffey, Todd Pletcher, 50-1, TBD September return projectedConsiderations among this grouping:Nitrogen will be one of the heaviest favorites in the Breeders’ Cup if she beats Splendora in the Locust Grove in their pre-Distaff showdown. Can’t imagine they’d bypass odds-on status to battle the boys over 10 furlongs, even after her stellar Whitney second over 9. But if her price swelled higher than 20-1, you could do much worse. It’s a speculator’s bet, after all. Iron Honor would likely get a shot for Chad Brown if able to win the Pennsylvania Derby after a lightly raced sophomore season that has avoided a lot of wear and tear. His Preakness rival Napoleon Solo feels much more like a Dirt Mile candidate, but a Travers win on Saturday could change that. Ted Noffey hasn’t raced this year and seems an odd inclusion here still a few works away from even a possible return.

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Penn National | today’s racesTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Saratoga Feeder | details$80 Del Mar Feeder | details$40 Canterbury Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 5 | Delaware Park | $6,684 | begins Race 1 | 12:20 pm ETPick 5 | Delaware Park | $4,226 | begins Race 3 | 1:24 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | Thistledown | $255,402 | begins Race 3 | 1:50 pm ETKEY RACESSaratoga | Race 8 | 5:14 pm ET | Skidmore StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXSaratoga | Race 5 | 3:29 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 4 | 3:43 pm ETRemington Park | Race 5 | 9:22 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJeff Runco | Charles Town | 4 of 5 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | favorites won 46% of North American Thoroughbred races offeredPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Saratoga Spot Plays for ThursdayJeremy Plonk: Del Mar Spot Plays for ThursdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section