The Lead:The headline races to Prairie Meadows’ Iowa Festival of Racing share the Saturday night marquee. The Cornhusker, Iowa Sprint and Iowa Derby are part of a 10-race card that gets underway at 7 pm ET. The $250,000 Iowa Derby goes as Race 7 and will be our focus. Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet enjoy 10X 1/ST Rewards Points on all wagers for Prairie Meadows on Saturday.​​Field Depth:DESERT GATE is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 1-placed. He’s clearly held the best running lines over time. Stakes winners include CRUPPER and J J GREY, while THE HELL WE DID is Grade 3-placed.​Pace:DESERT GATE would be most committed to the front likely in a field of horses with pace versatility. Inside-drawn runners could be used for more speed, while the bulk of the lineup is made up of horses who want to be in the front third of the field early if possible. This track plays to speed and you rarely benefit from being far back, even with a hot pace.​Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-THE HELL WE DID: Talented brother to Senor Buscador disappointed in the Preakness when farther back than expected. That style won’t work at Prairie Meadows, and aggressive rider Ramon Vazquez likely puts him more into the race to secure the rail draw. Distance remains the question, however, but a top effort can land him in the exotics.2-CRUPPER: Similar pace versatility and Preakness disappointment as The Hell We Did, their stories don’t veer much. Capable on a flashback to his Oaklawn stakes victory of making some impact here. Best chance is to carve out a pressing trip from just off the leader. Not as busy on the post-Preakness workout tab as The Hell We Did, but sharpened Jun. 25 in Louisville.3-MAXIMUM EFFORT: Steve Asmussen’s record 5 Iowa Derby wins included Magnitude’s return score last summer as well as a 2017 victory with Hence when teamed with jockey Mike Smith. The veteran rider tries for the first time aboard this 7-race maiden who was third in the Texas Derby behind a pair of Iowa Derby return rivals. Maxfield colt loses ground to the leader in the final call each time, explaining his maiden status. Not for me.4-J J GREY: While a 9: 4-0-0 record might lead us to think he’s all-or-nothing, closer inspection sees the Kenny McPeek trainee as 3: 3-0-0 in 2-turn dirt routes like the Iowa Derby. Smashing 104 and 100 BRIS late pace figures in his last 2 starts, including a local prep win in the Prairie Mile, give a lot of confidence for backing this Fair Grounds and Oaklawn allowance winner. The pick.5-DESERT GATE: The 9-5 morning line favorite obviously is the most credentialed runner in the field and trainer Bob Baffert’s 4 Iowa Derby wins are second-most to Steve Asmussen’s 5. Owners Pegram, Watson & Weitman have taken the back roads this year to more than $300,000 in seasonal earnings via Santa Anita, Oaklawn, Lone Star, Thistledown and now Iowa. Back 3 weeks after tiring in the 9-furlong Ohio Derby, he’s been a modest finisher routing, even in victory in the Texas Derby not visually impressive or by the numbers (86 BRIS late pace figure). Inclined to try and beat him Saturday. Note: Cross-entered in the Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis.6-OUTMATCH: Local sprinter gets the class and distance test in one deep dive. One-turn closer is difficult to project in the pace scenario under Elvin Gonzalez, who navigated Iowa Derby success in 2022 with local 11-1 upsetter Ain’t Life Grand. Pedigree doesn’t bed for the distance but finished well enough going shorter to have earned a shot. Prefer others.7-BRICKLIN: In 5 races around 2 turns, he’s lost margin to the winner in 4 of those, including disappointments at 6-5 and 2-1 odds in stakes company. Has some apparent talent but disheartening stamina leans more to his questionable damside pedigree than his classic-winning sire Nyquist. Note: Cross-entered in the Indiana Derby at Horseshoe Indianapolis and may fit better there as 1 of his 2 lifetime victories came over that surface last year.8-CANNED HEAT: The Prairie Mile runner-up was second-best late to J J Grey last out over 110 yards shorter in distance. There’s no shortage of pedigree here to get the trip, though interestingly this one sprinted 9 times in 11 starts. J J Grey worked twice to his 1 drill since the Prairie Mile, but this horse historically hasn’t done much clockwork in the morning for Jesse Oberlander. Barn is 2-45 on the year coming into the week and difficult to project getting all the candy Saturday.9-CHAD ALLAN: The field’s likely only true closer around 2 turns, expect jockey Alfredo Triana, Jr. to take him back off the pace from the opening bell and try to save ground behind the field. Second to Crupper and Desert Gate in separate stakes bids, he’s also dropped different decisions to The Hell We Did and Bricklin in the overnight ranks. He’ll get 8-10 pounds in relief from recent starts and benefits if they go fast; but deeper closers rarely find success on this racetrack. Underneath at best.Most Likely Exotics Contender:J J GREY has a win over the track, the best finishing figures in the lineup and has yet to be beaten around 2 turns on dirt.Best Longshot Contender:CRUPPER at 8-1 morning line is the most appealing of the prices. He fits better here than the Preakness, obviously, and isn’t afraid to fight in a race loaded with similar styles.​​Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$80 win J J GREY. $10 exacta part-wheel J J GREY over THE HELL WE DID and CRUPPER ($20).

The second week of summer racing at Saratoga is upon us beginning on Thursday afternoon with a nine-race card that gets rolling at 1:10 PM eastern. The card is headlined by four races over the grass, including a second-level allowance event that kicks off the late Pick 4. Here are a few horses I plan to build my day around to start the first four-day week in Saratoga Springs.Race 2:This 5.5-furlong dash over the grass for 2YOs drew a field of eight, including a quartet of first-time starters. Of those that have experience, #6 Generational is expected to take the most money, but I prefer #5 Beach Sandals. The Omaha Beach colt never got into things in his Saratoga debut during the Belmont Racing Festival, but showed strong speed in his runner-up finish at Churchill Downs in May. I like first-time starter #8 Pirate Ship most though. The Three Diamonds Farm colt was sent east from Keeneland by trainer Joe Sharp. Sharp sent four 2YOs to Saratoga last year to debut in a turf sprint. None went off at lower than 7-2. One won and only one finished out of the money. This son of Midshipman is out of a More Than Ready mare and draws favorably to the outside in the clear. I am willing to bet he is a runner.Play: #8 Pirate Ship (4-1 ML)Picks: 8-5-6Race 6:The Thursday feature is this $125k allowance event for fillies and mares run at one-mile over the Inner Turf. Trainer Chad Brown holds a strong hand in this one with 3-1-ML favorite #2 Play With Fire and 7-2-ML second choice #7 Opulent Restraint. Opulent Restraint does not interest me much, but is dangerous if they let John Velazquez set a moderate early tempo. Play With Fire is easier to like in a vacuum, but returns off a long break and takes on older gals for the first time. Trainer Phil Antonacci also has a two-filly entry with both making their first start in the States. Antonacci’s two runners to race last week both finished off the board, but he is a high percentage trainer that spots his horses to win. I will try the bigger price of his two on the ML #9 Ashikidah. The 4YO also makes her first start as a 4YO with just one try prior against older runners, but is likely to be double the price. She comes in off a steady series of works and should offer solid bang for the buck with Tyler Gaffalione jumping aboard.Play: #9 Ashikidah (6-1 ML)Picks: 9-1-7Race 9:Speaking of trainer Phil Antonacci, let’s take a swing in the finale with a first-time starter he sends out in this MSW event for 3YOs+ over the Inner Turf. A look around at those that have raced thus far shows a field that lacks early speed. Obviously, it takes projecting to get #6 Point Guard to be sharp enough to break well and the plan to be to see how far he can take them on the engine, but Antonacci legs up Ricardo Santana Jr. Santana is not a true one-trick pony in terms of his riding skills, but certainly has most often been at his best getting horses into the race early on. He takes the call on this Street Sense colt that should be fit and a big price. Hopefully, we can find a prominent spot early and beat this modest bunch of non-winners full of runners that come from bigger barns and are likely to take far more public support.Play: #6 Point Guard (15-1 ML)Picks: 6-5-1

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Thistledown | today’s races20% Exacta Winnings Boost | Assiniboia Downs | today's racesTOURNAMENT TIME$40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $107,244 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | $290,737 (CAN) | Assiniboia Downs | begins Race 3 | 9:25 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $8,230 (CAN) | Assiniboia Downs | Race 7 | 11:05 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXFairmount Park | Race 8 | 5:25 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 9 | 6:18 pm ETMountaineer | Race 2 | 7:25 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJamie Ness | Parx | all 8 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Saturday’s 13-race (8 stakes) Indiana Derby Day card drawnPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk: Thistledown Bet $100, Get $10 Key PlaysFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Throughout July, Tuesdays and Thursdays heat up at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet with our Red, White & Bet promotion. Bet $100, Get $10 on select tracks this month. Next up Tuesday will be Thistledown. Here’s how I’ll approach the card in Ohio with an assist from the Betmix Angler database.Thistledown Race 1 | 12:50 pm ET#4 The Pink Z (5-1 morning line odds) could be a buying price today after finishing third last out at 1-5 odds. The upsetter last out returned right back to win as an odds-on favorite, so this veteran’s effort might be better than it looks. Trainer Robert Cline has been going very well in recent weeks at Thistledown. Win bet #4. Exacta box 4-1. Picks: 4-1-5Thistledown Race 3 | 1:50 pm ET#2 Battle Ready (6-1 morning line odds) is a first-time starter for a Robert Gorham barn that’s already won with 2 of his first 3 juvenile starters at the meet ($8, $18). Gorham has been particularly hot even by his Tdn standards over the past few weeks. Sire Army Mule’s 2YO debut runners have a wild $1.52 ROI for every $1 bet from nearly 150 starters. Win bet #2. Picks: 2-4-1Eligible tracks and days:• Tuesday, July 7 // Thistledown• Thursday, July 9 // Canterbury Park• Tuesday, July 14 // Finger Lakes• Thursday, July 16 // Belterra Park• Tuesday, July 21 // Mountaineer• Thursday, July 23 // Penn National• Tuesday, July 28 // Horseshoe Indianapolis• Thursday, July 30 // Charles Town

EXTRA INCENTIVESKing’s Plate Flyaway Sweepstakes | Woodbine | earn up to 4 entries todaySCHEDULE NOTESColonial Downs | early first post 10:45 am ETEllis Park | makeup day | first post 12:50 pm ETWoodbine | makeup day | first post 1:00 pm ETTOURNAMENT TIME$40 Horseshoe Indianapolis Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $97,011 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $68,425 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 10 | 5:34 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | $130,977 | Prairie Meadows | begins Race 6 | 7:07 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXEllis Park | Race 2 | 1:19 pm ETHorseshoe Indianapolis | Race 6 | 4:45 pm ETMountaineer | Race 1 | 7:00 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHDavid Jacobson | Ellis, Horseshoe Indy | 5 of 6 entrants 5-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Woodbine | favorites won 1 of 12 on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Ellis Park Monday Spot PlaysFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

A rare Monday of racing in the Blue Grass is upon us due to the excessive heat last week forcing Ellis Park to postpone their first two cards of the summer. The card originally scheduled for Opening Day was moved to later today when they kick things off for Day 3 of the 2026 season in Henderson at 12:50 pm ET. The nine-race card is headlined by a trio of allowance races and the $3 All-Turf Pick 3 that gets started in Race 5. Here are a few horses that are double-digits on the morning line that I give a serious chance of springing the upset.Race 4:A full field of 2YO fillies is set to travel 5.5-furlongs in this MSW event over the main track. The field consists of a lot of first-time starters, but I like one of the gals with experience. #6 By Her Decree debuted on May 28 at Churchill Downs where she broke fine and was sent aggressively from there to the front from her rail draw. The Jeremiah O’Dwyer was no match for late for off-the-pace winner Epic Reign, but that Steve Asmussen runner came back to run a good second in the Debutante as part of the closing day card in Louisville. Her speed is a weapon and she is likely to benefit with the move off the inside. Adam Beschizza was aboard in her first start and returns to ride this afternoon.Play: #6 By Her Decree (10-1 ML)Picks: 6-4-7Race 5:This non-winners of two claimer at one-mile over the Ellis sod kicks off the All-Turf Pick 3 and appears wide-open. The pace is likely to be honest if not contentious in this spot, which I am hoping sets things up for Henry Hinkle homebred #3 Got Gone. The 3YO filly makes her first start over this course after an even fifth-place finish against better at Churchill Downs on June 21. Trainer John Ennis keeps regular rider Alex Achard aboard the Hit It a Bomb filly that certainly has been no world beater thus far through seven starts, but should get a dream run along the inside. Trip is likely to make the difference in this one. I am hopeful that Got Gone gets the right one at a juicy price.Play: #3 Got Gone (12-1 ML)Picks: 3-9-1Race 9:The finale is a MSW event for fillies and mares at one-mile over the turf where I like #1 Marcheline. The $125,000 FTS October ’24 purchase makes her third lifetime start for trainer Vickie Oliver after a pair of turf sprints to kick off her career. The daughter of Not This Time broke slow and did little running in mid-April at Keeneland, but took a noticeable move forward with a solid finish and gallop out at 5.5-furlongs in Louisville on June 4. She is bred to want more ground and gets it along with a favorable inside draw at 4:42 eastern time. The pace should be honest, which should allow jockey Axel Concepcion to save ground early and come with a strong run late. Hopefully, we get the ML offering.Play: #1 Marcheline (12-1 ML)Picks: 1-8-9

Yonkers Raceway has a 9-race card with the $1.00 Pick 5 starting in Race 5, and the sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool. The Spot Plays for tonight are in Race 1, Race 3, and Race 5. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 1 (6:45 PM EDT)4-Better By Seaside (7/2)-Won 2 straight at this level then stepped up to face $50k claimers and drew post 8. Comes off a no-move mile and now faces the same kind it beat. Has the gate speed to land on the point and could start a new win streak as the 3rd morning line favorite. (4-1-6)Will use #4 Better By Seaside in a Win Bet.Race 3 (7:25 PM EDT)5-Optical Illusion N (9/2)-Bumps up after a win and a 2nd place finish at the condition below. Has only 1 win in 15 races this year and could be overlooked. Will look for an honest pace as there is gate speed inside. Brent Holland could find some live cover and then be the best down the lane as in the last start. (5-3-1)Playing #5 Optical Illusion to WinRace 5 (8:05 PM EDT)2-The Ideal Dancer A (9/2)-Gets another swing at the same level after coming a good 2nd on 6-30. Will looks for some value with a veteran that knows how to win but doesn't have big gate speed. Broke slowly from the gate, was 10-lengths back last time and then rolled the back half in 55.3 to miss by a length. Should be racing closer to the lead tonight. Comes back quickly versus the same as 3 of 4 horses drawing inside are stepping up. Pat Lachance knows his trainee and will bank on him being in striking range down the lane at a square price. (2-5-1)Playing #2 Ideal Dancer A to WinCheck me out on X!

EXTRA INCENTIVES$2,500 Hit & Split Late Pick 5 | Saratoga | Friday-Saturday-Sunday offered$5,000 Hit & Split Triple Tri | Los Alamitos | Friday-Saturday-Sunday racesKing’s Plate Flyaway Sweepstakes | Woodbine | earn up to 4 entries todaySCHEDULE NOTESLos Alamitos | closing day of meetTOURNAMENT TIME$500 Los Alamitos Challenge | details$40 Monmouth Feeder | details$40 Canterbury Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | $185,091 | Saratoga | begins Race 4 | 2:56 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $58,051 | Los Alamitos | begins Race 6 | 6:19 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $63,059 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 12 | 6:56 pm ETJackpot Pick 5 | $121,892 | Prairie Meadows | begins Race 6 | 7:07 pm ETKEY RACESGulfstream | Race 7 | 3:38 pm ET | Proud Man StakesSaratoga | Race 6 | 4:04 pm ET | Kelso StakesEllis Park | Race 8 | 4:12 pm ET | Pea Patch StakesMonmouth | Race 7 | 4:16 pm ET | Monmouth County StakesWoodbine | Race 8 | 4:50 pm ET | Pink Lloyd StakesSaratoga | Race 8 | 5:12 pm ET | Harvey Pack StakesWoodbine | Race 10 | 5:56 pm ET | Ballade StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXEllis Park | Race 4 | 2:16 pm ETWoodbine | Race 7 | 4:17 pm ETSaratoga | Race 9 | 5:46 pm ETLos Alamitos | Race 8 | 7:17 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHChad Brown | Saratoga | 4 of 5 entrants 7-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Saratoga, Ellis | trainer Brendan Walsh | 3 wins, 2 seconds from 8 startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Saratoga Sunday PicksJeremy Plonk: Los Alamitos Triple Tri Hit & Split Promo Plays | Friday thru SundayBrian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section