The Skinny: First staged in 1920 and arguably the most prestigious race for older horses in Europe, the 12 furlong Prix de l’arc de Triomphe over the right handed Longchamp Race Course in Paris will have 16 starters on Sunday and is likely to be contested over soft, sticky going. Due to the suspect condition of the ground, this year’s renewal presents a truly challenging handicapping exercise. The Main Contenders: We know Sosie loves the Longchamp layout (he’s a perfect three-for-three) and his form over wet grass has been clearly established, so this lightly raced son of the brilliant 2009 Arc winner Sea the Stars has much in his favor. The highly gifted sophomore – a winner overall of four of six starts - enters the race fresh from a thoroughly convincingly victory in the Prix Niel-G1 over this course and distance in mid-September in a performance that produced yet another career top (123) Racing Post Rating. On pure figures, the colt has never taken a backward move, so we doubt he’s reached his ceiling just yet. And if that weren’t enough, Sosie hails from the Andre Fabre yard, which has produced no less than eight Arc victories. No trainer has won more. Punters planning to attack the exotics should strongly consider Fabre’s other two starters, Mqse De Sevigne (winner of six of her last seven starts) and the long shot Sevenna’s Knight (successful in three of his last four), at least underneath. Others to consider: Trainer Aidan O’Brien is represented by two runners, the best of which is Los Angeles, beaten a length in the 10 furlong Irish Championship S.-G1 last time out but equally effective if not better over this longer journey and more than capable over a wet surface. Also with a reasonable look is the Frankel colt Delius, in the frame behind Sosie in both of his last two appearances, and certainly capable of getting at least piece of it. The Gamble: The key to our success is getting Sosie home on top. We’ll use him in the straight pool and then hook him up top and bottom in the exotics with his stable mates Mqse De Sevigne and Sevenna’s Knight, and to a lesser extent with Los Angeles and Delius. The Selections: 13-Sosie; 14-Los Angeles; 3-Mqse De Sevigne; 12-Delius.

EXTRA INCENTIVES 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Keeneland | late pick 4 TOURNAMENT TIME $100 Keeneland feeder | details $1,000 Santa Anita BCBC Super Low Ratio Qualifier | details COAST-TO-COAST PICK 5 Gulfstream Races 9,11 | Santa Anita Races 3,4,5 | Nicoletti & Nadeau Picks NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Pick 6 | $24,847 | Belmont at the Big A | begins Race 7 | 3:17 pm ET Jackpot Pick 6 | $68,521 (CAN) | Woodbine | begins Race 6 | 4:02 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY $1.25M KEENELAND TURF MILE WINNER Keeneland | Race 10 | 5:48 pm ET | #9 Carl Spackler (19%) KEY RACES | 1/ST Call Podcast with Siegel & Plonk Stakes Analysis Belmont at the Big A | Race 5 | 2:13 pm ET | Jockey Club Derby Invitational Belmont at the Big A | Race 6 | 2:45 pm ET | Belmont Turf Sprint Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | 3:17 pm ET | Frizette Stakes Woodbine | Race 5 | 3:29 pm ET | Algonquin Stakes Keeneland | Race 6 | 3:40 pm ET | Woodford Stakes Belmont at the Big A | Race 8 | 3:49 pm ET | Champagne Stakes | Meet the Contenders Woodbine | Race 6 | 4:02 pm ET | Singspiel Stakes Keeneland | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ET | TCA Stakes Keeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET | First Lady Stakes Santa Anita | Race 3 | 5:00 pm ET | Oak Leaf Stakes Woodbine | Race 8 | 5:08 pm ET | Dance Smartly Stakes Keeneland | Race 9 | 5:16 pm ET | Breeders’ Futurity | Race of the Week Santa Anita | Race 4 | 5:30 pm ET | Speakeasy Stakes Woodbine | Race 9 | 5:40 pm ET | Nearctic Stakes Keeneland | Race 10 | 5:48 pm ET | Turf Mile Stakes Hastings | Race 2 | 6:00 pm ET | Ballerina Stakes Santa Anita | Race 7 | 7:00 pm ET | Chillingworth Stakes Santa Anita | Race 8 | 7:30 pm ET | Rodeo Drive Stakes Hastings | Race 5 | 7:30 pm ET | BC Premier’s Handicap Santa Anita | Race 9 | 8:00 pm ET | American Pharoah Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Keeneland | Race 2 | 1:32 pm ET Woodbine | Race 6 | 4:02 pm ET Gulfstream Park | Race 9 | 5:07 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Jamie Ness | Laurel Park | 5 of 6 entrants 9-2 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Belmont at the Big A | jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. | 3 wins, 1 second, 1 third from 6 mounts PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Jeff Siegel: What You Need to Know – Santa Anita | Saturday, October 5, 2024 Eddie Olcyzk: Santa Anita Hat Trick Best Bets | Saturday, October 5, 2024 Jeremy Plonk: Race of the Week – Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland Jeremy Plonk: 18 Stakes in 18 Sentences Scott Shapiro: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Saturday, October 5, 2024 Scott Shapiro: Future Stars Pick 5 Analysis | Saturday, October 5, 2024 Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Saturday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Santa Anita 6th Race – Post: 3:30 PT. Degree of confidence: B Top Selection/Prime Gamble: 10-Mizzyaan Other contenders: 7-Well Funded; 8-Helga Brandt (Ire) Forecast: Mizzyaan has acclimated quite well since arriving from Dubai earlier this year and tipped her hand when despite losing much ground rallied bravely to be second in a similar two turn maiden affair on grass for older fillies and mares. In doing so she produced a 13 point Beyer speed figure improvement over her U.S. debut, and with another forward move today the daughter of Justify should be set to earn her diploma. Two easy breezes since raced will have her fit and ready, and with U. Rispoli riding her back the M. McCarthy-trained sophomore appears to have much in her favor. We like her in the win pool at or near her morning line of 5/2 and as the main punch in the various rolling exotics. ______________________________________________________________________________ Santa Anita – 8th race - Post: 4:30 PT. Degree of confidence: A- Top Selection/Prime Gamble: 4-Iscreamuscream Other Contenders: 2-Sunset Glory (Ire). Forecast: Iscreamuscream is unbeaten in four starts and faces her toughest test yet in this year’s edition of the Rodeo Drive S.-G2 for older fillies and mares. This will be her first try at 10 furlongs and her first facing older foes, but those challenges should be offset by the projected pace flow, which places her on the front end as the controlling speed and with the likelihood that she can coast early and never look back. A facile winner of the Del Mar Oaks-G1 last time out with a career top speed figure, the daughter of Twirling Candy is a highly versatile sort that can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, so even if the pace flow comes up contested regular pilot H. Berrios can assess the situation and adjust if need be. She’s listed at 8/5 on the morning line and will offer good wagering value even at that relatively short price if you can get it. ______________________________________________________________________________ Santa Anita 9th Race – Post: 5:00 PT. Degree of confidence: A- Top Selection/Prime Gamble: 7-Getaway Car Backups: none. Forecast: Although he was disappointing when establishing the pace before fading readily in the Del Mar Futurity-G1 last month, Getaway Carseems quite likely to snap back in a big way in this year’s renewal of the American Pharoah S.-G1 for juveniles. Certainly bred to run this far (Curlin), the B. Baffert-trained colt removes blinkers, stretches out for the first time, and has been highly impressive in recent morning drills to strongly indicate that he’s set for a career top effort. We prefer to see patient tactics employed, and from where he’s drawn jockey J. Hernandez projects to enjoy an ideal trip outside and then have every chance to seal the deal when he presses the button at the head of the lane. We’ll consider a strong straight play at 2-1 on the morning line and we’re hopeful that we can get that price. ______________________________________________________________________________

The Red Mile has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Early Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $7,500 guaranteed pool with a 12% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track. Race 6 (2:40 PM EST) 6-Deja Blu (7/5)-This Takter 2-year-old will likely be the odds on choice in this event. Winner of 4 straight at Lex and has done it for the most part coming off cover and has left little doubt. Has only 2 losses in 6 races, the 1st start here on a "good" track and suffered an interference break at M1 after going off as an odds-on choice. 8-R Charm (5/2)-Many will single Deja Blu and she has an edge racing 5-times on the clay but the Toscano pupil is no slouch. Has hit the board in 5 of 8 races and rallied with a 26.3 last panel to win the $250,000 NJ Classic at M1 in its last start on 9-6. Could be a threat if takes to the oval and doesn't need the start. Race 7 (3:00 PM EST) 4-Fallout (8/5)-Comes in with a 2-race win streak, the last picture coming in the $740,000 Metro at Wbsb. Rolled home with a .53 last half and Tim Tetrick had a gear in his pocket no one else had. Has hit the board in 2 of 4 at Lex but is still looking to post a win. Should be able to down this group with a smooth trip. 7-Ayeaye Captain Deo (8-1)-Has faced some tough foes up North and looks like a real gimmick possibility. Does have good gate speed and should be there at the wire if takes to the oval. If AMac lands a good early seat without burning much gas this colt could make things interesting. Race 8 (3:20 PM EST) 5-R Duchess (4-1)-This is another Wbsb invader who has battled well at a top level. Comes off an even try at 7/5 and will look for a bounce back effort at what should be a square price. 6-Kendra (3-1)-The Walner 2-year-old has been consistently in the hunt and is in sharp form. This will be its Kentucky debut and JMac should have her engaged when the wings fold. 8-Luna Lovegood (4-1)-Luna picked a bad race to look flat as a pancake when a $400,000 purse was on the line. This is this is the time to catch her at a s solid price if you feel a bounce back effort is coming. Race 9 (3:40 PM EST) 1-Myonlylove (6/5)-Tuned up with a nice qualifier on 9-30 after being idle since 9-3. Recent form has been dull but lands in a great spot to break its maiden. This looks like a drop and pop situation, but won't offer any value. 8-Caviart Adele (5-1)-Willing to take a swing with a Takter NY bred with Yannick Gingras between the pipes. Using under the assumption the price will be better than the morning line. Has been handled cautiously in the last 2 races and maybe the wrapper comes off now and could also spice up the gimmicks. $1.00 Early Pick 4 6,8/4,7/5,6,8/1,8 Total Bet=$24 Check me out on Twitter!

In addition to a slew of traditional wagering opportunities on a very busy Saturday of action, there is a new option available to horseplayers called the Future Stars Pick 5. The $1 minimum, 15% takeout wager features the 2YO stakes at Aqueduct, Keeneland, and Santa Anita. It will be listed as a separate wagering option on 1/ST BET and Xpressbet and you know I will be taking part. Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play. Frizette Stakes (G1) Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 2 The Queens M G Backups: 3 Pondering Forecast: I had to call a late audible here with the massive scratch of 3-5-morning line favorite, #8 Senza Parole. The Don Alberto Stable homebred was dominant on debut and looked like a standout, but will be out for the remainder of the year. This makes the experienced #2 The Queens M G the horse to beat. The Thousand Words filly won on debut at 45-1 and followed it up with easy victories this summer at Saratoga in the Schuylerville and Adriondack (G3). She got caught up in a battle on the front end when we saw her last in the Spinaway (G1), but that came over an off track. I expect her to rebound in this one. #3 Pondering lacks the resume of The Queens M G, but was very good on debut at Ellis Park for Brendan Walsh before chasing the pace and tiring in the aforementioned Spinaway. She should bounce back as Flavien Prat jumps aboard for the first time. Champagne Stakes (G1) Grade: C+ Main Ticket: 9 Executive Order; 10 Chancer McPatrick Backups: 7 Smoken Wicked Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown has won this race two of the last three years and appears to have a huge shot to do so in 2024 with #10 Chancer McPatrick. The $725k OBS April 2024 purchase enters the Champagne a perfect 2 for 2 after his half-length score in the Hopeful (G1) in early September. I like that he took a significant step forward in that first try against winners from a figures perspective. It bodes well for his chances in here, as does the likely contentious pace. The only real concern is his lack of gate speed at a short price. With that in mind, I will turn to #9 Executive Order as my top choice. The Maryland-bred son of Unified should be a big price after crushing restricted MSW company at Saratoga in late August for trainer Phil Serpe. The last 2YO Serpe won with on debut was Leave No Trace who went on to win the Spinaway and finished second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. This gelding can run a little. #7 Smoken Wicked has progressed in all four starts for trainer Dallas Stewart. From a race shape perspective, I struggle to see the trip he wins with, but at 12-1 on the line I will use as a backup. Oak Leaf Stakes (G2) Grade: B- Main Ticket: 8 Non Compliant Backups: 3 Tenma; 1 Rio Del Sol Forecast: The first of two 2YO graded stakes at “The Great Race Place” features four Bob Baffert trainees in this group of eight. As one would expect, I landed on one of the Baffert’s in #8 Non Compliant. The Tiz the Law filly broke sharp on debut from the rail and then relaxed professionally before sealing the deal under Juan Hernandez. She now moves to an outside post in her first start around two-turns. #3 Tenma is one of the other Baffert runners. She has shown an affinity for the wire in both starts winning by a neck and a nose. The ability to win close races as a young horse should not be underestimated, but the addition of blinkers after the two wins is a bit of a question mark. I will use her as a backup along with long shot #1 Rio Del Sol. The Michael McCarthy filly finished third in her lone start to #6 Showers and enters this Grade 2 event a maiden. She needs to take a huge step forward to beat these, but I like the confidence McCarthy is showing in the daughter of American Freedom. Perhaps, she will make the last move if the pace is hot early. Breeders’ Futurity (G1) Grade: B- Main Ticket: 4 Handsome Pants; 5 East Avenue Backups: 1 Ferocious Forecast: #1 Ferocious is listed as the 8-5-morning line favorite after re-rallying to finish second beaten half a length in the Hopeful (G1) last month. The extremely pricey son of Flatter dominated over the off track on debut and is hard to knock on paper, but visually underwhelmed in his first stakes try last month. The colt was under a ride early on and it appeared he would be off the board at 3 to 5, but ended up passing the majority of the field in the end. He is a tough read, but swallowing the chalk seems less than ideal. #5 East Avenue was bet down to 6-5-favoritism on debut at Ellis Park for Brendan Walsh and ran to his price. The well-bred Godolphin homebred has to deal with plenty of others that want to be on or near the lead, but his class and ability are apparent. #4 Handsome Pants feels like the value play. The Daredevil colt got a perfect trip under Brian Hernandez Jr. in his debut score at Churchill Downs last month, but I am not sure I want to hold that against him. Not only, did he show serious professionalism winning at two-turns on debut, but he could get a similar trip on Saturday. He is my top choice given his likely off odds. American Pharoah (G1) Grade: B Main Ticket: 7 Getaway Car (pictured)Backups: None Forecast: Hall of Famer Bob Baffert has a strong three-headed monster as he hopes to win the American Pharoah for the fourth consecutive year. I like #7 Getaway Car most. The Curlin colt was awesome in his first two starts before getting caught up in a wicked speed duel in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) last out. The $700k Keeneland September 2023 purchase easily disposed of the other speed, but tired late to finish fourth. Now, Baffert takes the blinkers off and stretches him out to a route of ground. I expect him to relax far better early and finish with authority. Hopefully that is good enough to win the lions’ share of the $300k purse and stamp himself as one of the favorites in next month’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Good luck with this fun new wager!

EXTRA INCENTIVES 1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Keeneland | late pick 4 Bet $50, Get $10 | Fraser Downs| today’s races TOURNAMENT TIME $100 Keeneland feeder | details $100 Santa Anita feeder | details NOTABLE CARRYOVERS Pick 5 | $10,444 | Delaware Park | begins Race 4 | 2:00 pm ET Jackpot Pick 6 | $59,410 (CAN) | Woodbine | begins Race 4 | 2:55 pm ET Pick 6 | $83,940 | Santa Anita | begins Race 4 | 5:30 pm ET Jackpot Super Hi 5 | $83,305 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 9 | 5:40 pm ET 1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY SANTA ANITA PICK 6 WINNER Santa Anita | Race 4 | 5:30 pm ET | #4 Lil’ Bit Bossy (30%) KEY RACES Belmont at the Big A | Race 5 | 2:44 pm ET | Futurity Stakes Belmont at the Big A | Race 7 | 3:48 pm ET | Waya Stakes Keeneland | Race 7 | 4:12 pm ET | Phoenix Stakes Keeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET | Jessamine Stakes Keeneland | Race 9 | 5:16 pm ET | Alcibiades Stakes LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIX Gulfstream Park | Race 1 | 12:25 pm ET Belmont at the Big A | Race 4 | 2:13 pm ET Keeneland | Race 8 | 4:44 pm ET TRAINERS TO WATCH Brad Cox | Keeneland | 6 of 7 entrants 5-1 or less morning line DID YOU SEE? Yesterday | Belmont at the Big A, Laurel | favorites just 1-for-8 at each track PUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAM Jeff Siegel: $83K Santa Anita Pick 6 Carryover Analysis | Friday, October 4, 2024 Frank Carulli: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Analysis | Friday, October 4, 2024 Frank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Friday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

RACE 4: Post: 2:30 PT Grade: A- Main Ticket/Prime Play: 6-Legal Fiction Other Contenders: none. Forecast: Already a two-time winner in her brief career, unbeaten Legal Fiction remains eligible to this first level allowance main track dash for 2-year-olds because she doesn't meet the purse earnings clause in the race conditions, and she'll have much in her favor at this elongated sprint distance from her cozy outside draw due to the fact that the D. O’Neill-trained filly employs a highly effective stalk-pounce-and-go style that almost certainly will ensure a trouble-free trip. She toyed with her outclassed foes at Fresno, but that race was less than two weeks so the only concern is the short rest of 13 days since that outing. However, with speed figures that are fastest in the field and with the possibility of another forward move, the daughter of I’ll Have Another seems like a logical Pick-6 carryover single. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 5: Post: 3:00 PT Grade: B+ Main Ticket: 7-Cullen J Other Contenders: none. Forecast: Cullen J ran better than the line will show in his debut sprinting on turf at Del Mar and seems certain to step forward with that bit of experience behind him. The son of Sir Prancealot gets off the rail today after displaying good speed to always be within range before staying on well through the lane to wind up a respectable third. The R. Baltas-trained colt is facing what appears to be a softer group of maidens and based on our pace projection should be in the first flight throughout, maybe even on the lead. His morning line of 7/5 doesn’t offer much value, but you can use him as a single in the various rolling exotics with a fair degree of confidence. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 6: Post: 3:30 PT Grade: C Main Ticket: 8-Arromax; 4-Supreme Coast; 2-Bowtie Boys Other Contenders: 3-Getemdusty; 7-Classic Alphie. Forecast: This bottom rung maiden claiming router looks borderline inscrutable with nothing to trust, so a spread in rolling exotic play is in order. Arromax is a one-paced grinder with no acceleration, but his speed figures fit with these, so he projects to be a major contender. Trouble is, he’s been a beaten favorite in his last pair and in both cases he failed to take advantage of the help he had up front. Supreme Court is another with a similar style – he has never displayed any real turn of foot – but in a weak affair a repeat of his runner-up effort (beaten a head) last time out at Del Mar charts quite well here. However, low profile connections don’t inspire confidence. Bowtie Boys stretches out for the first time and could improve enough to be a serious threat, though his sprint numbers aren’t inspiring. But like we always say, if they’re ever going to run well two turning, it’ll be in their first try. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 7: Post: 4:00 PT Grade: B Main Ticket: 1-Just Nails; 6-Tom’s Regret Other Contenders: 4-Speed Lane; 8-Kitty Kitana (GB). Forecast: The rail draw in these Hillside turf sprints isn’t ideal, but Just Nails has a proper stalking style, so if she can secure a comfortable second flight position she should fire a big shot. Winless in five career starts over the lawn but second in three of those and first or second in seven of 10 grass outings overall, she retains “win rider” E. Maldonado and shows a bullet half mile breeze (:46 4/5) on dirt just a few days ago to keep her on edge. The D. O’Neill-trained filly is solid on numbers and the deserved morning line (2-1) favorite. Tom’s Regret is interesting. Runner-up in both of her grass starts and bred to prefer that surface, she returns to turf after facing considerably tougher competition is a long series of dirt outings. Her only prior start over this tricky downhill course resulted in a narrow second (beaten a neck) in the Senorita Stakes-G3 last year, and a repeat of that race today likely could very well be good enough. We’ll include these two on our main tick and then protect with the potentially dangerous Speed Lane (route-to-sprint angle with a class drop) and Kitty Kitana (just claimed for $100,000 by J. Sadler). ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 8: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B- Main Ticket: 8-Saltwater Cowboy; 1-Navy Man; 7-Jerry’s Spirit Other Contenders : 3-Don’t Hit Me Bash; 5-Mischelof Forecast: Here’s another fairly wide open affair that offers several possibilities. Best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows. Saltwater Cowboy is lightly raced and improving and was quite sharp when finally breaking his maiden in his sixth lifetime outing at Del Mar last month. The son of Mastery had raced exclusively on turf prior to switching surfaces for the first time and in the process earned a career top speed figure while enjoying an ideal second flight, stalking journey that earned him eligibility to this starter allowance dirt miler. Based on figures, he’s a strong fit with these. Navy Man was once well regarded but has been a huge disappointment, so his connections drop him into a seller for the first time while stretching him again. He’ll likely employ pace setting/pressing tactics from his favorable rail draw, and with J. Hernandez staying aboard he’s worth tossing in. Jerry’s Spirit earned a giant figure when easily beating maiden $40,000 foes at Los Alamitos in just his second career start three weeks ago. These are tougher and his ability to handle two turns is unknown, but based on numbers he could be dangerous, especially if he can secure a trip as the controlling speed. Don't Hit Me Bash and Mischelof have enough credentials to toss in somewhere. ______________________________________________________________________________ RACE 9: Post: 5:00 PT Grade: A Main Ticket/Prime Play: Sea Runner Other contenders: none Forecast: Sea Runner, a two-year-old half-sister to Johannes with plenty of potential, returns to the maiden ranks after an excellent third place finish in an infinitely tougher spot in the Juvenile Fillies Turf Stakes at Del Mar last month. Back with maidens today after improving her Beyer speed figures by 23 points behind Breeders’ Cup-bound Thought Process, the daughter of Gun Runner found her best stride too late to finish eagerly in a hot affair and really won’t have to improve much (though we suspect she will) in today’s maiden grass affair. The barn’s “go-to” rider U. Rispoli stays aboard and should have the T. Yakteen-trained filly along in plenty of time as a Prime Play and logical Pick-6 single. ______________________________________________________________________________