It’s a Pick 5 with full fields on paper, but short-priced favorites abound in races 6 through 10 this Saturday, Oct. 10, at Charles Town for the 40th running of the West Virginia Breeders Classics. All five favorites are 9-to-5 or less on the morning line, shaping the potential payout dramatically for the 50-cent wager. Players at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet benefit greatly in payouts with $2,500 Hit & Split promotions on the late pick 5 and late pick 4 -- both sequences including the Race 7 1/ST BET West Virginia Breeders Classic race.Here’s a closer look:Charles Town, Race 6 (9:32 p.m. EST) RYAN’S RUN was on a perfect four-race run by a combined 28 lengths until the streak ended in the $500,000 Robert Hilton Memorial last out. He dueled from the start until he gave way in the stretch of the two-turn sprint. He scratched from a Grade 2 stakes race at Parx to run in $75,000 Russell Road BC and remains the one to beat. Jeff Runco, the all-time leading trainer at Charles Town, also sends out a viable price option in PENGUIN’S PRIDE, who won three races by a combined 20-1/2 lengths but lost all chance with a ‘tangled start’ against RYAN’S RUN in the 7F Robert Leavitt Memorial on a muddy track.Charles Town, Race 7 (10:02 p.m. EST) THELASTSAY’S only loss in five starts since late April was at 7F against $500,000 earner OVERNIGHT POW WOW (see 8th race). She tracked a heated pace battle and surged 3-wide to prevail in the last jump for her first stakes victory last out. But MAGGIE’S GIRL was resilient, too, in the same $50,000 Autumn Stakes, dueling from the outset and missing by a neck in her first start off a 4-1/2-month layoff. The rematch should be a good one in the $75,000 1/ST BET Breeders Classic.Charles Town, Race 8 (10:32 p.m. EST) OVERNIGHT POW WOW just keeps winning … and winning … and winning. She has 12 wire-to-wire wins, all but one carrying 120 pounds or more, and seeks a re-run of her 2024 West Virginia Cavada BC victory. But PETTY PERFECT upset her in last year’s Cavada and arrives for her title defense in comparable form, with a projected ideal pace to rally into from the rail. She advanced inside on the second turn in an allowance race three weeks ago before OVERNIGHT POW WOW hit another gear in the stretch to prevail. LIL MISS HONKYTONK is a longshot to consider at 20-1 on the morning line in the $125,000 race for fillies and mares. She showed marked improvement since a $10,000 August claim, winning an allowance at 22-1 and returning on short rest to make a middle move to the lead and finish second on a ‘good’ track at tonight’s distance.Charles Town, Race 9 (11:02 p.m. EST) Defending Classic champ TEACHINTHERELEASE will go down as one of the best claims in Charles Town history. He is 11-for-15 with six stakes victories in seven starts (average 90 Beyer) since Robert Cole Jr. claimed him for $20,000 in June 2024. His main rival in 1-1/8-mile $300,000 Classic, JUBAWITHATWIST, starts from post 10 after he rallied to finish second in a pair of 7F matchups in August.Charles Town, Race 10 (11:32 p.m. EST) The most evenly-matched field in the Pick 5 sequence could be the finale. RAY OF SUNSHINE is a deserving favorite with a stakes victory and five consecutive 80-plus speed figures on a fast track, but he drew outside of post 5 only twice in the last year and got beat by 9 lengths both times. Hit the ‘ALL’ button in the race named after Onion Juice -- the first Breeders Classic champion in 1987 -- in hopes of a midnight celebration after the race.Suggested Pick 5CT 6th Race: 3, 9CT 7th race: 4, 8CT 8th Race: 1, 3, 4CT 9th Race: 4CT 10th Race: ALLCost for a 50-Cent Ticket: $60

EXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Thistledown | today’s racesSCHEDULE NOTESThistledown | closing day of meet ThursdayTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | details$40 Charles Town Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSMandatory Payout Pick 6 | $4,424 | Thistledown | begins Race 6 | 2:00 pm ETJackpot Super Hi 5 | $72,025 (CAN) | Woodbine | Race 7 | 6:26 pm ETKEY RACESThistledown | Race 5 | 1:30 pm ET | Emerald Necklace StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXDelaware Park | Race 7 | 3:58 pm ETWoodbine | Race 4 | 4:52 pm ETHorseshoe Indy | Race 8 | 5:47 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHScooter Davis | Presque Isle | 4 of 5 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Belmont Park | trainer Chad Brown won with 3 of 4 startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Thistledown Promo Plays for ThursdayJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Longshot Plays for ThursdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section

Later today marks another chance for horseplayers to take advantage of one of 1/ST BET and Xpressbet’s new October promotions. “Bonus Boonanza” for those who missed it on Tuesday or last Thursday gives our customers an opportunity to bet $100+ at a select track and earn a 10% bonus for doing so. We move from Indiana on Tuesday to Ohio and Thistledown for an 11-race card headlined by the $75k Emerald Necklace. For those yet to do so, remember to register for the new promotion before diving into the slate that gets rolling at 11:30 AM eastern. Here are a few horses I like most, including my top choice in the feature.Race 2:My first play comes in this state-bred $50k claimer at six-furlongs where the pace should be highly contentious given the number of runners signed on that like to be prominent in the early stages. The three ML favorites all stand a chance to get the right trip, but #1 Red Chips and #8 Momma K’s Boy are coming back on very short rest to get one last chance to compete over this surface before the meet concludes. Perhaps, they fire big on the two-week return, but I give the edge to the more rested #4 Excitement. The Tim Hamm trainee finished second beaten a neck to Momma K’s Boy on September 1, but moved wide into the lane while the eventual winner rode the rail to a tight victory. Hamm goes to jockey Luis Rivera this time on the seven-time winner over this racetrack.Play: #4 Excitement (3-1 ML)Picks: 4-8-7Race 5: Emerald NecklaceThe featured event for Ohio-bred 2YO fillies at six furlongs over the main track appears wide open. I landed on #3 Miss Middle. The daughter of Corfu debuted in a race in late August won by #4 Bee Boppin and it was not a friendly experience for a first-time starter. The Robert Cline trainee was caught between rivals when attempting to find a quality forward position early and was shuffled back before making a wide move into the lane and tiring in the end. Cline wheeled her back quickly on September 9 where she got the job done by three-quarters of length. The favorites in here can win, but are underlays at their morning line prices, so I will try one of two runners entered with more than one start under their belt.Play: #3 Miss Middle (6-1 ML)Picks: 3-6-4Race 11:My final play of the day comes in the finale where I will try to wire the field with #1 Gottomakeithappen. The son of Cowtown Cat had a day to forget after being bumped at the start back on September 22, but prior to that almost stole a race against better in late August. There is not much speed at all signed on in this conditional state-bred claimer at six-panels, so I will take veteran jockey Deshawn Parker and the inside draw at a very fair ML offering to close the day in the Buckeye State.Play: #1 Gottomakeithappen (8-1 ML)Picks: 1-3-7

Each day during the 17-day Keeneland Fall Meet, I’ll spotlight the double-digit morning line prices that you’ll want to consider for your exotics plays. These are based on my top-3 choices in each race and will only appear if they’re in my mix and of significant odds.A good day of price winners and exotics fillers Wednesday rolls into a Thursday with some chances to shine.Race 2:#7 Prince of Tides (15-1 ML) – Fast worker at local training center likely gets overlooked for small-time trainer, but sire Dialed In’s offspring relish Kee dirt. He’s posted 21% winners with a wild $1.72 ROI for every $1 bet over the past 3+ meets.Race 4:#3 Ides of Demarch (10-1 ML) – Deep closers at Prairie Meadows have absolutely no shot on that speed-crazy track, but capable trainer Kelli Martinez might get a fair shake to garner a share with plenty of pace here and a track that’s been pretty fair through 4 days.Race 5:#11 Fan’s Choice (20-1 ML) – Terrible race where field is 23: 0-1-1 combined, so class drop and 2 sharp works since her last start might be enough to wake up this Runhyappy filly for an underrated John Ennis barn.Race 6:#3 Lady Valor (20-1 ML) – Won her only local race last Fall and adds blinkers after idling late last time, a move that can help her punch. Hard to argue with 7-7 in the money and a win over the track. Tough race but helps spruce up the exactas if she can work into it late.Race 10:#11 Can’t Stop Willis (10-1 ML) – One of my best bets on the card should graduate in his second start since owner-trainer Steve Asmussen took over the controls. Overmatched when here in 2024, give me a Nyquist on this main track at 10-1 any day, much less in door-knocking maiden form.#10 Tuxedo Park (30-1 ML) – Blinkers go on this gelding by Complexity, a sire whose offspring have won 25% on the Kee dirt over the past 3+ meets. She’s had plenty of issues missing time but working like she might fit with these at a big price.

The Lead:Since local legend Onion Juice christened the series in 1987, the West Virginia Breeders Classics has been central casting for the state's best Thoroughbreds. I know because I was there, a teenager rooting for "The Juice" like thousands of others in attendance. Over the years horses like Russell Road, A Huevo, Taylor Mountain, Confucious Say and Coastal Mission have staked their claim. This year's 1-1/8 miles test, feature race on a 10-race program of divisional WV-bred stars, welcomes back defending champ TEACHINTHERELEASE (pictured) with a chance to leave his name among the local legends above.1/ST BET is a proud sponsor of the WV Breeders Classics and Race 7 on the card. That race will be part of $2,500 Hit & Split promotions on both the late pick 4 and late pick 5, which feature the Sam Huff WV Breeders Classic. Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take advantage of additional cash returns when you hit the late pick 4 and/or pick 5.​​Field Depth:Class standouts here begin with last year's 1-2 finishers, TEACHINTHERELEASE and JUBAWITHATWIST. Beyond them, XCELLENT START certainly has seen his share of big-time company lines.​Pace:The 1-1/8 miles races start on the backstretch of the 6-furlong bullring track and comprise 3 turns. There's time to make up ground, but with tight turns and a very short stretch, you want to be in the mix. TEACHINTHERELEASE will be immediately in the hunt with other pursuers having to work to keep up with him.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.1-AUDIBLE STORM: First stakes try and first route for 3-year-old hot shot who has blown away 2 allowance casts in a row. Pedigree shaky on damside this far. Trainer Jeff Runco has won this race 8 times, including 4 straight before being dethroned a year ago. Barn’s go-to pilot Arnaldo Bocachica goes to stablemate Spotafreeone’s deeper stakes experience.2-SPOTAFREEONE: The more proven of the Jeff Runco entries, and like his stablemate will benefit from an inside draw around 3 turns while stretching out this far for the first time. Won 7 of his first 8 Charles Town attempts but has lost 2 straight while a solid third in the local prep vs. the race’s 2 main favorites. Gets a more favorable race shape and set-up this time and I like that last year’s Russell Road winner aims for the big money on this card at age 4.3-XCELLENT START: Trainer Wade Sanderson has won but 4 races this year but hasn’t been shy about this veteran’s appearances – which include the Pimlico Special and Charles Town Classic. Allowance winner over 9 furlongs on the road at Laurel, so the trip won’t be too far. Not out of the exotics talk.4-TEACHINTHERELEASE: The odds-on favorite looks to repeat last year’s romp by 14-plus lengths and it’s hard to argue against him. Seven straight local wins, 9 of his last 10, handling fast and wet tracks, sprints and routes alike. He’s simply the best of this division right now at age 6 and can push $800K in career earns with a title defense. Lightly raced this year with this in mind and barn remains a gaudy 30%-plus.5-NEVERPOPTHECORK: Distant fifth in this race last year splitting the field at 66-1. May be slightly off that form which doesn’t inspire confidence though wet tracks have littered his form.6-DEFIANT GIANT: Career claimer has won 3 of his last 4 starts and no doubt is a solid distance horse in a race where the 9 furlongs will trip several of these. While he’s run at cheaper levels, it’s been mostly in open company so the class rise might not be as intimidating as it appears. Versatile running style helps.7-GIMMETHATSUGAR: Highly inconsistent sort’s best might be a few pegs below the better horses in this race, and his lackluster efforts will find him far back over 9 furlongs. Prefer others.8-FIBER PROOF: It took 20 tries to clear the non-winners of 2 lifetime condition for this outsider who likely will be overmatched and never tested anywhere near this trip.9-THIS JUICE B LOOSE: Solid WV-bred allowance type has been flat late on the back end of 1-1/16 miles races and starting wide around 3 turns and adding another half-furlong makes it tough to project success. Jevian Toledo, in town from Laurel to ride Ihaveanappforthat in the Russell Road on the undercard, has been fantastic in his local appearances this year (7-12). He’s in the right hands to find the trip.10-JUBAWITHATWIST: Clear-cut #2 in the West Virginia-bred ranks, a difficult outside draw over 3 turns puts this 5-year-old in a tough bind against his Frank Gall Memorial conqueror Teachintherelease, who also topped him in an allowance sprint 4 weeks prior to that. The star 7-furlong performer turned up with a sharp dash win last out, but hasn’t gone this distance since finishing second in the WV Breeders Classic of 2024 when beaten at 1-9 odds at the end of his 3-year-old season. He’s 19-21 in the exacta at Charles Town from 4-1/2 to 9 furlongs, so if anyone can overcome the post, it’s him.11-(AE) YOUTHFUL ENERGY: Allowance sort is 1-for-11 over the past 2 years and would be overmatched at this distance from this post if he drew into the lineup.12-(AE) ROYAL PAIN: Similar to the other AE, a 1-for-10 record the past 2 seasons against weaker competition doesn’t bode well from a wide go if he gets into the field.Most Likely Exotics Contender:TEACHINTHERELEASE has the class, pace and proven credentials as the king of the local hill.Best Longshot Contender:DEFIANT GIANT is in peak form and his open company races likely won't merit respect on the tote because of the claiming tags.​​Sending it in ($100 bankroll):I'll try to carve a trifecta with the price players between the very logical top 3 contenders in this race. $25 trifecta partwheel TEACHINTHERELEASE over DEFIANT GIANT, EXCELLENT START over JUBAWITHATWIST, SPOTAFREEONE ($100).

EXTRA INCENTIVESKeeneland | Wins Day 20% Winnings Boost (up to $20) | today’s racesSCHEDULE NOTESAssiniboia Downs | closing day of meet tonightThistledown | closing day of meet ThursdayTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 5 | $90,501 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | begins Race 4 | 3:45 pm ETPick 6 | $39,713 | Belmont Park | begins Race 4 | 2:49 pm ETMandatory Payout Pick 5 | $53,078 (CAN) | Assiniboia Downs | begins Race 4 | 9:50 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 2 | 1:32 pm ETDelaware Park | Race 3 | 1:46 pm ETBelmont | Race 8 | 5:05 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHChad Brown | Belmont, Keeneland | 4 of 5 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Fairmount Park | jockey Brody Martinez | 4 wins from 7 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Keeneland Win Boost Promo Spot PlaysJeremy Plonk: Keeneland Longshot Plays for WednesdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer: best bets today in the Xpressbet member’s section

In addition to the “Bonus Boonanza” promotion I wrote about yesterday, we launch another weekday October promo this afternoon at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. Keeneland “Wins-Day” gets started later today with the first of three opportunities to earn a 20% boost on your total daily Win payouts on Wednesday afternoons in the Blue Grass State. Just register for the new deal as always on the promotional landing page where you can also find the details on the maximum amount you can earn. Here are a few horses I am hopeful earn me a 20% bonus later today when Keeneland kicks off their first full week of racing.Race 3:My first play comes in this third-level allowance event at six-furlongs over the main track where the pace should certainly be honest given the presence of #2 Spring Dancer, #4 Silent Law, and #5 Madonna of Loretto. This should bode well for #6 Strong State. The $16k bargain basement Keeneland January ’23 purchase makes her second start of the form cycle after her second career failed run over the muddy going at Saratoga. Shes has been back training at Churchill Downs since and takes on a weaker bunch than he encountered in New York at the tail end of the meeting. Jockey Ben Curtis should be able to relax this Tom’s d’Etat filly in the rear early and come with a strong late run late at a playable ML offering.Play: #6 Strong State (9-2 ML)Picks: 6-1-4Race 6:I lack trust in the logical runners in this second-level allowance event at two-turns over the main track. #6 Union Mist was made the 2-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro due to his connections and consistency, but is far from a win machine (2 for 24) and appears up against it from a race shape perspective. 3-1-second choice #4 So There She Was exits better races in California, but has struggled to finish with any energy of late making her difficult to back as well. With the lack of excitement in the shorter priced runners, I will take a swing with #1 Rando. The daughter of Vino Rosso comes off a disappointing sixth-place finish at Churchill Downs, but that was at a one-turn mile when I think this filly is best served in races at two-turns or at the minimum the unique 1.5-turn configuration at Ellis Park. Trainer Aaron Shorter sports a strong $2.92 ROI over a 36-start sample size at Keeneland and her tactical speed/inside draw should serve her well in a short stretch race over this oval.Play: #1 Rando (12-1 ML)Picks: 1-7-6Race 7:My final Win bet on the Keeneland Wednesday card comes in this second-level allowance event at 5.5-furlongs over the grass where I expect #2 Something Stronger to work out a favorable inside ground saving voyage under jockey Brian Hernandez Jr. The daughter of Justify has been freshened up by trainer Al Stall Jr. after essentially being speed burnt in a similar spot at Saratoga on July 10. The $450k Keeneland September ’23 purchase ran a solid second in her only other start over this course and prior to the fifth-place run at the Spa had finished in the exacta in four consecutive starts. She should be rolling late in what hopefully is a big day for Team Stall.Plays: #2 Something Stronger (8-1 ML)Picks: 2-10-3

The Breeders’ Cup is just a few weeks away, and most of the expected participants have completed their final prep races. Many year-end championships will be decided on October 30 and 31 at Keeneland Race Course, largely due to what takes place in these marquee events.Below you’ll find my rankings for 13 of the Breeders Cup divisions, with the top four contenders listed in chronological order. Any changes made, whether they be additions / subtractions or new comments, are italicized.(NOTE: The Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint will be omitted from the rankings. The division is constantly in flux and there are too many who will be cross-entered to make that list worthwhile.)CLASSIC1 - Forever Young (last week: 1)• Some may have been underwhelmed by his victory in the Jockey Club Gold Cup…but what else did you want from him? A 105 Beyer going 10F off a six-month layoff would seem to be a great jumping off point for a Classic defense.2 - Magnitude (last week: 2)• If you forgive his Saratoga form he’s done nothing wrong; ticks all the boxes at what’s likely a reasonable price assuming you can get past the dud in the Whitney3 - Sovereignty (last week: 3)• Maybe foolish to move him down a peg, but his unknown status due to the foot abscess has to be a concern; not sure he can afford any sort of hiccups if he’s to make the Breeders’ Cup4 - Knightsbridge (last week: 4)• Devastated the G1 Pacific Classic, a field that was a G1 in name only; hard to find anyone to dispute his brilliance, but the question remains - can he reproduce that brilliance against the cream of the crop?DISTAFF1 - Nitrogen (last week: 1)• May not have been visually exceptional but plenty fast enough winning the Beldame; strictly the horse to beat in the Distaff2 - Fully Subscribed (last week: 3)• Secured her first career G1 in the Personal Ensign and followed it up with a decisive win in the G1 Spinster…peaking at the right time and may have what it takes to defeat Nitrogen in the Distaff3 - Splendora (last week: 4)• The wide margins of victory around two turns would lead you to believe she may well fit the Distaff configuration; have always wondered if she’s better around one turn, though, so maybe a defense of the FM Sprint is the better path? To be determined…4 - Regaled (last week: unranked)• Probably a notch below the best in the division but finished third in the Distaff last year and enters this year off another blowout win in the Delaware Handicap; maybe underneathSPRINT1 - Englishman (last week: 1)• Missed a scheduled work over the weekend; connections seem optimistic it’s a minor issue and he should get back on the work tab soon…clearly the best of this bunch, but time is of the essence now2 - T O Elvis (last week: 2)• Lost in the late odds hoopla on Derby Day was just how emphatic his win in the Churchill Downs was; may need to find a bit if Englishman holds his form - but may not need to find much3 - Built (last week: 3)• Always seemed like a one turn horse and has shown that to be the case in 2026; not much to knock about him given his recent form other than the obvious - his figs are miles behind those of Englishman4 - Liam Smith (last week: 4)• Not often does a $50k claimer immediately become a Breeders’ Cup contender, but here we are…back-to-back 107 Beyers make him too fast to ignore - especially given his early pace; seems unlikely he can run with Englishman, but could be worst case scenario for the heavy chalk in terms of race shapeFM SPRINT1 - Kilwin (last week: 1)• Perhaps being a bit stubborn keeping her #1…didn’t think her second in the Ballerina was a bad effort, just ran into a horse for course and found herself way too far back early despite the hot pace; absolutely needs a step forward but hopefully that is still to come at Keeneland2 - Ways and Means (last week: 2)• Disrespectful to have her this far down after a blowout win in a G1 at Saratoga? Maybe…still think she’s a different animal at the Spa v. Other venues; likely goes as the favorite for the FM Sprint off the 104 Beyer in the Ballerina3 - Mashallah (last week: 3)• Another blowout victory, this time in the G3 Prioress; figs aren’t exactly improving but hard to argue with what she’s done when you watch her races…may end up being the “now” horse4 - Explora (last week: 4)• Came up just short as part of a three-horse photo in the Dogwood at CD; the figs aren’t quite there for her to be considered a top contender - but that can be said for most in this division aside from Ways and MeansTURF1 - Tiffany (last week: 1)• Devastating victory in the KYD Turf Cup in her U.S. debut; 107 Beyer earned in that race has been the benchmark for BC Turf success over the past decade - a likely win candidate at Keeneland2 - Ombudsman (last week: 2)• Serious horse and a real possibility to run here if the weather goes sideways for Champions Day at Ascot according to John Gosden via Nick Luck Daily…Gosden has kept him at 10F for majority of career in Europe but the 12F in the United States should be well within his scope; the likely favorite for the Turf assuming he comes for the party3 - Diamond Necklace (last week: unranked)• Gave a good account of herself in the Arc when stepping up in trip; with the distance a non-issue, a trip to the BC Turf has been mentioned by Aidan O’Brien for the 3YO filly4 - Ethical Diamond (last week: 3)• Credible second behind the filly on top in the KYD Turf Cup; connections seem very pleased with the run as a means to an end heading to Keeneland - a legit threat to repeat in the BC TurfMILE1 - Blue Bolt (last week: 1)• Another race, another G1 victory for the fantastic filly - this one at Newmarket in the Sun Chariot; already qualified for the FM Turf and it sounds like a run at Keeneland is in the cards…the question is: the FM Turf or the Mile against the males?2 - Notable Speech (last week: 3)• Another G1 victory to his resume in the Woodbine Mile, running down Deterministic - who had everything his way; a major threat to repeat in the BC Mile, even if his WO Mile “only” earned a 101 Beyer3 - Lake Forest (last week: unranked)• Second in the Coolmore Turf Mile at Keeneland behind Rhetorical but had a no-win trip given the lack of pace / lack of running room; should get a more favorable setup in the BC Mile for trainer William Haggas4 - Rhetorical (last week: unranked)• Winner of the Coolmore Turf Mile for the second consecutive year; took advantage of glacial pace but kicked home like a good thing…proven over the Keeneland turf and versatile running style should give him a good chanceFM TURF1 - Precise (last week: unranked)• Big effort when second in the Prix de l’Opera at 10F at Longchamp behind Miss Scott; winner doesn’t sound likely to come, so runner-up on the cutback to 9.5F would be a handful for Aidan O’Brien2 - Thundering On (last week: 1)• Looked for a moment as though she’d fire a big shot in the Arc before offering little late; speculation that she doesn’t appreciate fast ground, which makes BC participation questionable…still love the idea of her cutting back to 9.5F3 - Stellify (last week: 4)• An all or nothing type at this point in her career…when she’s part of the early running, she’s very good; decimated a field in the Ladies Marathon at KYD, a course which she’s 3-for-3 over4 - Kathynmarissa (last week: unranked)• Added another graded stakes victory to the resume in the Flower Bowl at 10F; 9.5F distance of this race hits her right between the eyes and trainer Chad Brown has had success in this event on numerous occasions…too sharp to ignoreTURF SPRINT1 - Cy Fair (last week: 1)• Nothing to be gleaned from her off the board effort at KYD; buried on the rail for duration of the run…draw a line through the race - her best is still elite2 - Bacio (last week: 2)• Devastating winning the G1 Nunthorpe at York for Wesley Ward over a highly-accomplished group; no fault with anyone saying he’s clearly tops, just still believe in the filly at #1’s ability3 - Joe Shiesty (last week: unranked)• Razor-sharp sprinter is also as gutsy as they come, as seen by his win in the Woodford at Keeneland; other pace will be a concern for him since he’s one-way speed, but he loves a fight4 - Shisospicy (last week: 3)• Difficult to say what to expect from her with the nonexistent campaign but know her best is as good as anyone’sDIRT MILE1 - Knightsbridge (last week: 1)• Sounds as though it’s as simple as: if Sovereignty runs in the Classic, Knightsbridge to the Dirt Mile…no Sovereignty in the Classic - Knightsbridge to the Classic2 - Napoleon Solo (last week: 2)• Loses nothing in defeat finishing a gallant second in the Travers; Classic remains an option for the connections, especially after flashy drill at Belmont Park3 - The Puma (last week: 3)• Connections probably wanting to give the Classic a go but not sure his best is good enough to run with the big boys just yet; blinkers certainly did the trick and the middle move he unleashed would play wonderfully in a truly run mile at Keeneland4 - Further Ado (last week: 4)• Kicked on well at the end of the PA Derby but couldn’t run down The Puma; the record at Keeneland sticks out like a sore thumb - in a good way; can’t imagine the connections are in a rush to try the Classic with him but another who would fit wonderfully in the Dirt MileJUVENILE | MATT'S VIDEO ANALYSIS1 - Hughes (last week: unranked)• Hard to knock a horse who is 4-for-4 with winning margins of 6L, 7+L, 4+L, and 6L at distances of 5F, 6F, 7F, and 8.5F; took a meaningful step forward on the fig scale and establishes himself as the favorite for this race with the absence of U.S.S. Valor2 - Salahudin (last week: 4)• Almost the antithesis of a typical Baffert 2YO - sluggish out of the gate, settles before finding stride and finishing while still showing greenness; may be more of a 3YO prospect but continues to improve…as good a 2YO male crop as we’ve seen in a while3 - American History (last week: unranked)• Took advantage of pace setup to win Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland; not the most visually impressive but seems like he’s learning on the job…needs a meaningful step forward to get the job done in the Breeders’ Cup (or another obscene pace setup)4 - Coach Pope (last week: 1)• Caught up in a wicked pace in the Breeders’ Futurity; finished willingly, albeit slowly, at the end of two-turn debut…dynamics almost certainly did him in but he’s likely to catch another swift pace in the Breeders’ CupJUVENILE FILLIES1 - Emphatic (last week: unranked)• Exceptional in G1 Alcibiades victory at Keeneland for Brendan Walsh; distance is her friend and she’s already defeated a serious filly in Summer Starlet…the one to beat on BC Friday2 - Summer Starlet (last week: 2)• Ran giant in Alcibiades defeat; nothing to knock other than she’s going to run into the Alcibiades winner again in the BC Juvenile Fillies3 - Domain Expansion (last week: unranked)• Visually awesome winning the Oak Leaf at Santa Anita in dirt debut for Leonard Powell; may not have beaten the best company but could not have looked more impressive…should be a square price in the BC given the other outfits involved in this race, too4 - Miss Monica (last week: 1)• Paired up 87 Beyers winning G1 DMR Debutante for Baffert; geared down for final 100 yards and still galloped out with interest…think she’ll improve around two-turns, tooJUVENILE TURF1 - How’s Al Today (last week: 1)• Ran twice at the Kentucky Downs meeting, including a stakes score which resulted in a 94 Beyer Speed Figure; division historically dominated by Euros but this one looks like he may be the goods…form flattered when 3rd place finisher in KYD Juvenile Mile (who was 5+L behind Al) came back to win Bourbon at Keeneland2 - Folsom Blues (last week: 2)• Beaten at odds-on in Jean-Luc Lagard�re at Longchamp over 7F; didn’t seem to be shortening at the end…simply beaten by a better runner on the day - would be an obvious threat in the BC Juvenile Turf should he come3 - Darkness Falls (last week: 3)• No surprise to see him shorten in the market to one of the favorites for next year’s Derby after authoritative victory in the Golden Fleece; Aidan O’Brien suggested a run in America wouldn’t be out of the question4 - Al Hudaiba (last week: 4)• Better than the final margin in the G1 Summer would suggest given he took a right-hand turn down the stretch; Charlie Appleby / Godolphin have played this tune successfully in the past, would be no surprise to see them do it againJUVENILE FILLIES TURF1 - Sun Goddess (last week: 1)• Must be special if Aidan O’Brien is referring to her as a “freak”; smashed in the Moyglare, and post race comments would suggest a run in the Cheveley Park followed by a try in the Breeders’ Cup could be on offer…also worth noting she thumped Folsom Blues at The Curragh in August2 - Domestic Agenda (last week: unranked)• Devastating win in the Miss Grillo at Belmont Park; wide trip in the clear and lengthened down the lane, all while swapping leads and showing a bit of greenness…Chad Brown has won this race six times3 - Senorita Bonita (last week: 2)• Crushed G1 company in the Prix Morny in August; pedigree on top suggests sprint but damsire is a real stamina influence…would think a mile should be within her scope4 - Vanta (last week: 3)• Another impressive win, this time in the Surfer Girl at Santa Anita; as mentioned before - the waters get considerably deeper taking on international competition + Chad’s filly