KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDEFree Access, Now Live PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGERAvailable now through Kentucky Derby DayEXTRA INCENTIVES1 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Parx early pick 5NOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $65,694 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY CHURCHILL DOWNS WINNERChurchill Downs | Race 6 | 3:18 pm ET | #9 Well Aware (28%)KEY RACESTurf Paradise | Race 2 | 4:30 pm ET | Desert Classic Futurity (AQHA)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXParx | Race 10 | 4:47 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 9 | 4:55 pm ETTurf Paradise | Race 8 | 7:41 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHJeff Radosevich | Thistledown | 9 of 10 entrants 5-1 or less morning lineDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Finger Lakes | jockey Andre Worrie | 2 wins, 3 seconds from 8 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Tuesday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Midway through the most prestigious week in horse racing, it’s time to take a shot at building up the Kentucky Derby bankroll with action from Happy Valley in Hong Kong. After a whiff on FWD Champions Day, I’m gonna do my best to shake off the bad day and bounce back in a big way.Helpful ResourcesHappy Valley – April 30Past Performances Speed Pro Pace Projections Unique Bet TypesOMNI – Select at least two runners to finish in the top three in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combinationQUINELLA – Select the top two runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combinationTRIO – Select the top three runners in a race in any order, get paid for each correct combinationDOUBLE TRIO – Select the top three runners in TWO races in any order, get paid for each correct combinationMethodologyPower ratings are calculated by a mix of runner performance versus historical average, quality of the field in each race, weight-based handicaps, and lengths beaten or won. This is how I value past performance of each horse, and it helps me isolate horses worth handicapping further. Then I turn to classic pen-and-paper handicapping to see if there are any plays worth making.//Race 1 | 1650 Meters (~1 Mile) | Class 5 | TurfKey: #3 CERVIN (6/1 ML)Put this horse in this race after his January 8th effort, and I’d mark him the favorite in this field. In fact, he had performed well enough to bump up to the Class 4 ranks and make a run at 1800 meters. He took the lead in his Class 4 effort and the distance was just too much for him. He gets sent back down to Class 5 and returns to this distance where he’s all over down the stretch and can’t finish a good trip. Given his somewhat good recent form and the addition of Zac Purton, Hong Kong’s leading jockey, I’d say he has a solid chance.But the numbers don’t love him, ranking him third in the group by a healthy five points. As much as my gut likes him outright, calculations that I trust think he may still be beaten. We won’t play him with any short prices, though, and instead will opt for a few other well-priced contenders to complete the Omni (for the uninitiated, the Omni requires you to pick two of the top three runners and they can finish in any order). #2 YOUNG HORIZON (14/1 ML), #4 U S S CONSTITUTION (7/1 ML) and #6 SKY PROPHET (13/2 ML) help round out the top four most highly rated, outside of our morning line favorite #5 CALIFORNIA MOXIE, and should help us make a nice trip to the cashier.Betting StrategyWin - #3 CERVINOmni – 2,3,4,6Trifecta – 2,3,4,6 w/ 5 w/ 2,3,4,6//Race 3 | 1000 Meters (5 Furlongs) | Class 2 | TurfKey: #2 AURORA LADY (7/2 ML)As much as it pains me to do this, I just want to play this horse heavily straight up. #7 GLORY ELITE (6/1 ML) will fire from the fifth post and take the lead. Just to his outside will sit AURORA LADY from the next post over. Morning line favorite #8 COLORFUL KING (5/2 ML) will be just a hair too slow to be mid-pack and will end up a few lengths off the lead, new territory for this first-timer in Class 2. The traffic jam will ensue as everyone fights for room, and from a cleanly rated trip our top pick will emerge with open lanes and find the wire first.At least that’s the prediction I’m going with. The power ratings have this gelding as the second choice by less than a point, but the trip projection is set up beautifully for Zac Purton to steal another one on the day and send us home with full pockets. The other top contenders are a bit too short for me to construct some crazy day-maker. Instead, I’ll be making my most sizable win bet of the day and singling in the Pick 3 starting in this race.Betting StrategyWin - #2 AURORA LADYPick 3 – 2 w/ 2,3,4 w/ 1,2,4

A record $320 million was bet on the Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Day card last year, including an unprecedented $210 million on the Run for the Roses alone. Betting figures to be brisk once again when the 151st Derby Day card takes place Saturday. First post is slated for 11 am ET with the Kentucky Derby going as Race 12 of 14.Here are the intra-race bets offered on the Derby and minimum transactions on each type:-- Win, Place, Show ($2)-- Exacta ($1)-- Trifecta ($.50)-- Superfecta ($1)-- Super High 5 ($1)Saturday’s 14-race card includes a myriad of multi-race bets, specifically:-- Daily Double ($1): rolling each race-- Pick 3 ($.50): rolling each race-- Pick 4 ($.50): Races 2-5, Races 6-9, Races 9-12, Races 11-14-- Pick 5 ($.50): Races 1-5, Races 3-7, Races 5-9, Races 8-12, Races 10-14-- Pick 6 ($.20): Mandatory Payout, Races 7-12Saturday’s special wagers add to the lineup:-- All 3-Year-Old Pick 3 ($3): Races 6,9,12 (Pat Day Mile, American Turf, Kentucky Derby)-- All Dirt Pick 5 ($.50): Races 4,6,8,10,12 (Knicks Go, Pat Day Mile, Churchill Downs, Derby City Distaff, Kentucky Derby)Churchill Downs also offers a few multi-race wagers special to Oaks and Derby Day, including:-- Oaks / Derby Double ($1): Friday Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks), Saturday Race 12 (Kentucky Derby)-- Two-Day Pick 3 ($.50): Friday Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks), Saturday Race 11 (Turf Classic), Saturday Race 12 (Kentucky Derby)-- Two-Day Pick 6 ($1): Friday Race 7 (La Troienne), Friday Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks), Saturday Race 8 (Churchill Downs), Saturday Race 9 (American Turf), Saturday Race 11 (Turf Classic), Saturday Race 12 (Kentucky Derby)//Horseplayers at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet can take part in Friday and Saturday’s $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion for Oaks and Derby Days. Earn your share of $10,000 each day when you connect on six or more exactas ($2 minimum bets) on the card. For more coverage of the Kentucky Derby and Oaks Days, access the 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide here.

KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDEFree Access, Now Live PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGERAvailable now through Kentucky Derby DayEXTRA INCENTIVESBet $100, Get $10 | Woodbine-Mohawk harness | today’s racesNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $40,201 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY TURF PARADISE WINNERTurf Paradise | Race 9 | 8:05 pm ET | #3 Arromax (29%)LONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXParx | Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETFinger Lakes | Race 8 | 4:23 pm ETMountaineer | Race 8 | 9:55 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnothony Farrior | Mountaineer | all 5 entrants 7-2 or less morning lineDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Mountaineer | favorites won 6 of 8 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Monday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

The fillies for the lilies set the stage for Saturday’s Kentucky Derby with a tradition-rich Friday feature program at Churchill Downs, headlined by the Kentucky Oaks. A capacity field of 14 entered, including 6-5 morning line favorite Good Cheer in her quest to remain undefeated.Horseplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET are encouraged to take part in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion held over both Friday and Saturday, potentially adding extra returns on your weekend action.Let’s meet the contenders for the Kentucky Oaks (Race 11):#1-EARLY ON: Runner-up in the Virginia Oaks at Colonial Downs and Aqueduct’s Gazelle most recently by a nose, this Florida-based filly has a maiden win at home at Gulfstream Park from 6 starts. Saffie Joseph Jr. trains the daughter of Belmont winner Union Rags and turns to Gulfstream rider Edgard Zayas for the first time aboard this longshot.#2-SIMPLY JOKING: Two-time Fair Grounds stakes winner to open her career, this Whit Beckman trainee exits a hard-fought runner-up in the Fantasy Stakes at Oaklawn. Gets a rematch with Quietside as well as a rider change to 2-time Kentucky Oaks winner Florent Geroux. Practical Joke filly has won on fast and sloppy tracks.#3-FONDLY: Most inexperienced filly in the Oaks field has won both career starts, including the Virginia Oaks last out. The daughter of Upstart has raced around 1 turn in each of her races and will be asked a new challenge while light on foundation. Graham Motion trains and Virginia Oaks-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is back aboard. Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners co-owns this filly as well as Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism.#4-DREXEL HILL: Whit Beckman’s second Oaks shot in the lineup has yet to test the graded stakes ranks. She exits a victory in the Busher Invitational at Aqueduct, one race after a third-place Silverbulletday bid at Fair Grounds behind fellow return rivals Simply Joking and Bless the Broken. Ben Curtis has the call on the Bolt d’Oro filly.#5-QUICKICK: Saratoga maiden breaker last September has had 4 straight top-5 graded stakes finishes since without a repeat victory. Second in the Ashland and third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, her 3-year-old pair of races haven’t had the improvement attached while outrun by Quietside and Good Cheer in her last couple of starts. 2019 Kentucky Oaks winner Tom Amoss trains the McKinzie filly, who gets the services of Umberto Rispoli – pilot of Kentucky Derby favorite Journalism – for the first time.#6-BALLERINA D’ORO: Odds-on favorite in the Gazelle at Aqueduct survived the nosebob vs. return rival Early On while notching her first stakes victory. The Chad Brown trainee is a daughter of Medaglia d’Oro, who already has sired Kentucky Oaks winners Plum Pretty and the legend Rachel Alexandra. Ballerina d’Oro has transitioned from turf to dirt after her first 3 starts came on grass. Brown seeks his first Oaks and turns the reins over on this filly to Flavien Prat for the first time on Friday.#7-LA CARA: Wire-to-wire winner of Keeneland’s Ashland 25 days prior to the Oaks after that race was delayed by weather. She’s come to hand at age 3, winning 2 of 3 with a runner-up in Gulfstream’s Davona Dale around 1 turn her only blemish. She won Churchill Downs’ Pocahontas Stakes last September before disappointing in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies at Del Mar. Daughter of Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense gets a home game now for Mark Casse and Dylan Davis.#8-FIVE G: Gulfstream Park Oaks winner has alternated first and second-place finishes in her last 5 starts. Versatile sort has carried her form on turf and dirt, around 1 turn and 2, for George Weaver. Her wins in the Cash Run and GP Oaks were wire-to-wire … in-between was a game second to Quietside in Oaklawn’s Honeybee when tackling that one on the road. Manny Franco rides the daughter of red-hot young sire Vekoma.#9-TENMA: California’s top filly ran the table in the Starlet, Las Virgenes and Santa Anita Oaks since December. She’s won 5 of 6 overall, including the Del Mar Debutante. Bob Baffert bids for a fourth Kentucky Oaks score following Silverbulletday (1999), Plum Pretty (2011) and Abel Tasman (2017). Top Santa Anita pilot Juan Hernandez returns aboard the daughter of 2016 Kentucky Derby victor Nyquist.#10-TAKE CHARGE MILADY: Jockey-trainer Brian Hernandez Jr. and Kenny McPeek look for their follow-up to 2024 Kentucky Oaks winner Thorpedo Anna. The last time the same combo scored successive Kentucky Oaks was Eddie Arcaro-Horace Jones in 1952-’53. This Ashland Stakes’ rallying runner-up has been battling a hoof injury in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Oaks, leaving her status tenuous.#11-GOOD CHEER (pictured): Six wins from 6 starts, including a trio at Churchill Downs, highlight the Kentucky Oaks favorite’s ledger. The impeccably bred daughter of Medaglia d’Oro-Wedding Toast has yet to come even close to defeat – all wins by 2-1/2 lengths or more. She’s been heavily favored in each start, including odds-on propositions in the Golden Rod locally (when besting Oaks return rival Quietside) and most recently the Fair Grounds Oaks. Brad Cox has a pair of Oaks on his resume, as does sire Medaglia d’Oro. Luis Saez rode his first Oaks winner in 2022 with Secret Oath.#12-ANNA’S PROMISE: After losing her first 5 starts, she was claimed for $50,000 at Gulfstream Park in February while breaking her maiden. New trainer Carlos David has moved her up considerably with an allowance win and a runner-up to Kentucky Oaks rival Five G in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. Filly went 0-3 at Churchill Downs last season while in the Dale Romans barn. Junior Alvarado, who rides Sovereignty in the Derby, has the call.#13-BLESS THE BROKEN: After chasing Kentucky Oaks rivals Good Cheer and Simply Joking in separate Fair Grounds stakes bids on the trail, this filly found success on the class drop at Turfway in the listed Bourbonette Oaks. Daughter of Laoban appears to handle more distance with enthusiasm despite debuting at Evangline Downs a romping winner at 4-1/2 furlongs. Will Walden trains as Bourbonette winning rider John Velazquez seeks his third Oaks victory.#14-QUIETSIDE: Oaklawn Park’s determined winner of the Honeybee and the Fantasy Stakes has never misfired in 7 starts, hitting the board each time with 3 wins and 3 seconds. Trainer John Ortiz had a poor showing at OP, but his barn picked up steam at Keeneland and this filly has been oblivious to all that in going 3: 2-1-0 on the season. Daughter of Malibu Moon is 2-for-2 since joining forces with jockey Jose Ortiz.

Northfield Park has a 15-race card with the $1.00 Late Pick 4 starting in Race 11. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 11 (9:40 PM EDT)3-Saulsbrook Genesis (5/2)-Burke trainee ships back from MVR and lands in a good spot to get sucked-around. Will need an efficient trip, will probably be over bet but best to not overlook.4-Sure Thing Captain (5-1)-Has raced well at this class and could take advantage of the post draw. Cory Kreiser drives his own and without Aaron Merriman at the controls the price will be better.6-Liteningonthebeach (7/2)-Merriman sticks with the Bercury barn and when steering for this outfit he posts 25% winners. The plan will stay the same, blast out and play catch me if you can.Race 12 (10:02 PM EDT)4-Shamrock (3-1)-Takes a meaningful drop from facing Open company to NW6500. Won the last time in at this level with tonight's pilot, Merriman, between the pipes. Should be a main player versus this crew.9-Magic Hill (4-1)-AMac steers for the Krieser stable and that has happened only once before. The 4-year-old beat this kind 2 back and could make some noise with a sharp steer. Might be able to land in a good early seat and should offer a square price.Race 13 (10:24 PM EDT)4-Downbythewater (9/2)-The Schillaci pupil make its 1st start as a 3-year-old after winning its qualifier at Nfld on4-17 easily. Should be a player versus this group if tight enough.5-Unique Catch (2-1)-Took the long way around after leaving from the 7-hole and drew off by 6 lengths against this kind. Draws well and looks like a double up possibility.Race 14 (10:46 PM EDT)1-Whiskeyontherocks (6/5)-Blasted out from post 7 and landed on the point but the trip took its toll. The small price is tough to swallow but a picture could be taken with this post draw.3-Big Bad Mike (20-1)-The last time this veteran got a smooth trip was on 3-18. Left from the rail and came 2nd at this level. Has only 1-win in the past 41 starts but this looks like a beatable field if with a smooth journey.$1.00 Late Pick 43,4,6/4,9/4,5/1,3Total Bet=$24Check me out on Twitter!

KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDEFree Access, Now Live PREAKNESS FUTURE WAGERAvailable now through Kentucky Derby DayTOURNAMENT TIME$40 Santa Anita Feeder | detailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $151,084 | Gulfstream | begins Race 5 | 3:02 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $8,273 | Santa Anita | Race 11 | 9:08 pm ET1/ST BET AI MOST LIKELY SANTA ANITA WINNERSanta Anita | Race 7 | 7:08 pm ET | #7 Amorita (30%)KEY RACESWoodbine | Race 7 | 4:09 pm ET | Woodstock StakesAqueduct | Race 8 | 4:54 pm ET | Memories of Silver StakesOaklawn | Race 9 | 5:48 pm ET | Natural State Breeders StakesSanta Anita | Race 7 | 7:08 pm ET | Senorita StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXOaklawn Park | Race 6 | 4:10 pm ETTampa Bay Downs | Race 9 | 4:27 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 6 | 8:04 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHLarry Rivelli | Hawthorne | all 7 entrants 5-1 or less morning lineDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Aqueduct | jockey Manny Franco | 3 wins from 8 mountsPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer Sunday best bets available in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Journalism will begin Kentucky Derby 151 from post 8 and has been tabbed the 3-1 morning line favorite for Saturday’s Run for the Roses. The Santa Anita Derby winner leads 21 entrants (20 can start) in America’s most important horse race, as drawn this evening at a special ceremony between live races at Churchill Downs.Horsesplayers at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can take part in a special $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion Kentucky Derby weekend. The 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide is live with stats, trends, workout videos, handicapping analysis and more. Access it free here.Favorites have dropped 6 straight Derby decisions dating back to Justify’s Triple Crown sweep in 2018. Chief opposition to Journalism figures to come from Florida Derby runner-up Sovereignty (post 18), second choice in the morning line at 5-1 odds. The Derby field lost one of its leading players Saturday morning when Florida Derby winner Tappan Street exited his final major workout with a condylar fracture in his right front leg.The often-contentious early Kentucky Derby pace could set the table for the finishing kick of Journalism, Sovereignty and a band of late runners. The draws of the prospective Derby 151 pacemakers figure to ratchet up an already-expected wicked pace. Blue Grass runner-up East Avenue (post 12), Virginia Derby winner American Promise (post 5), Tampa Bay Derby champ Owen Almighty (post 20), Florida Derby tempo-setter Neoequos (post 2), Wood Memorial winner Rodriguez (post 4) and last year’s Champion 2-Year-Old Citizen Bull (post 1) all have early gas. The latter pair hail from Bob Baffert’s stable, back after a 3-year ban by Churchill Downs for his 2021 medication infraction and subsequent disqualification of Derby winner Medina Spirit.Japan has a pair of representatives in the field, UAE Derby winner Admire Daytona (post 6) – who could also be part of the early pace discussion – and the Kentucky-bred American Pharoah colt Luxor Cafe (post 7), winner of the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby series and 4 straight races.As for the post draw’s winners and losers? Winners include Journalism (post 8), Sandman (post 17), Luxor Cafe (post 7) and East Avenue (post 12, particularly with deep closers immediately inside and outside of him in the gate). In addition to the aforementioned speed horses all drawn down inside, synthetic specialist Final Gambit (post 3) is another of the draw’s losers – he’ll have all the dirt kicked back in his face for the first time from far back in the pack. Friday’s Kentucky Oaks also was drawn tonight, topped by the undefeated Good Cheer, who aims for her seventh straight victory. She will start from post 11 of 14 and slated at 6-5 odds by track handicapper Mike Battaglia.Kentucky Derby 151 | Churchill Downs | Race 12 | 6:57 pm ET1-Citizen Bull (Bob Baffert / Martin Garcia) 20-12-Neoequous (Saffie Joseph Jr. / Flavien Prat) 30-13-Final Gambit (Brad Cox / Luan Machado) 30-14-Rodriguez (Bob Baffert / Mike Smith) 12-15-American Promise (D. Wayne Lukas / Nik Juarez) 30-16-Admire Daytona (Yukihiro Kato / Christophe Lemaire) 30-17-Luxor Cafe (Noriyuki Hori / Joao Moreira) 15-18-Journalism (Michael McCarthy / Umberto Rispoli) 3-19-Burnham Square (Ian Wilkes / Brian Hernandez Jr.) 12-110-Grande (Todd Pletcher / John Velazquez) 20-111-Flying Mohawk (Whit Beckman / Joe Ramos) 30-112-East Avenue (Brendan Walsh / Manny Franco) 20-113-Publisher (Steve Asmussen / Irad Ortiz Jr.) 20-114-Tiztastic (Steve Asmussen / Joel Rosario) 20-115-Render Judgment (Kenny McPeek / Julien Leparoux) 30-116-Coal Battle (Lonnie Briley / Juan Vargas) 30-117-Sandman (Mark Casse / Jose Ortiz) 6-118-Sovereignty (Bill Mott / Junior Alvarado) 5-119-Chunk of Gold (Ethan West / Jareth Loveberry) 30-120-Owen Almighty (Brian Lynch / Javier Castellano) 30-121-Baeza (John Shirreffs / Flavien Prat) AE 12-1