The first of two massive days of racing are upon us at Churchill Downs where the Kentucky Oaks will be run at night in 2026. The 13-race card is great from start-to-finish and gets started at 12:30 PM eastern time with the featured event set to go to post at 8:40 PM. In terms of promotions, 1/ST BET and Xpressbet are happy to bring back are popular Exacta-Thon. $10,000 will be up for grabs on both Friday and Saturday with the goal of connecting on as many $2 exactas over the course of the card. Those who connect on 6 earn an equal split of $8,000 each day with the remaining funds going to the player(s) who hit the most throughout the card.The stakes action gets started in Race 7, but my strongest opinions come early. Let’s dive into what should hold up as one of the best of the year.Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.Race 1:Grade: BUse: 5 Mass; 1 Phantom BlueForecast: #1 Phantom Blue was made the odds-on ML favorite in this two-turn MSW event over the main track after battling early and tiring late sprinting over the off going at Keeneland on April 3. She cost seven-figures and did nothing to disgrace herself on debut, but I prefer the value #5 Mass should offer. The Not This Time filly moves back to the main track after being bet hard going a route of ground on debut, but failing to fire. Trainer Michael McCarthy adds the blinkers and turns to Flavien Prat. Hopefully it is go- time for a barn that is willing to be patient with some of their top runners.Race 2:Grade: B+Use: 5 Quantum BurstForecast: One of my strongest opinions of the day comes in this second-level allowance at one-mile over the main track where I love the chances of #5 Quantum Burst. The daughter of Munnings makes her third start off the bench after a pair of races this winter for trainer Eddie Kenneally. The 4YO filly ran a solid second to stablemate Evanescence two-back off the bench before being caught four-wide on a day where the rail was best at Oaklawn Park. The freshening, success over the surface, and rider upgrade to Jose Ortiz all give this gal a huge shot in the first leg of the early Pick 4.Race 3:Grade: B-Use: 9 Leilani; 10 Star Actress/3 Krissy’s Star; 2 Measure; 4 Miss Call; 6 Maximum OfferForecast: The two best fillies in this first-level allowance at 1 1/16-miles over the main track are drawn to the outside, which could make it more wide-open than it would be otherwise. #10 Star Actress held her own in the Ashland (G1) after earning her first win at Gulfstream Park in mid-March. She has a huge chance if able to avoid a wide voyage throughout, as does top choice #9 Leilani. The Walmac Farm runner finished strong when racing against the flow on debut at Gulfstream before crushing a field on March 1. She has unlimited upside and comes in off a strong series of works at Payson Park before a maintenance drill in Louisville. I expect a big run if she gets a clean voyage.Race 4:Grade: BUse: 7 Bella Ella; 9 Lexi V./11 Tammy’s Kiss; 10 Rose of San Antone; 13 TramuntanaForecast: I hope to be counting my money after this 7-furlong dash over the main track for fillies and mares yet to earn their first win. I am high on two prices and will be hoping to connect on the exacta to separate potentially a bit from the pack in the Exacta-Thon promotion. #7 Bella Ella is well-bred and finished stronger in her debut sprinting than it may appear on paper. She had plenty left in the tank that day and should relish getting back to one-turn. #9 Lexi V is another price I will be using equally as much as my top choice. The Calumet Farm homebred faced stronger fields in Florida this winter than she does in this spot. The daughter of Lexitonian was down on the inside when the outside was the place to be on debut and then ran third in a solid heat in early March. Hopefully, she gets overlooked in the wagering.Race 5:Grade: BUse: 11 Royal Guard; 6 ExecutiveForecast: The early Pick 5 concludes with the first turf race of the day. I will use a pair in of logicals in hopes of beating the 3-1-ML favorite #10 Prepped. The promising Lael Stables colt looked serious immediately, but has struggled to win races he was supposed to win evidenced by his four defeats at 5-2 or less thus far. I prefer both #11 Royal Guard and #6 Executive. Royal Guard draws outside, but gets Irad Ortiz aboard after being caught three wide most of the way in his lone turf start last summer. She comes in fresh, but Brad Cox is more than capable of having her ready to fire off the long break. #6 Executive has had 6 chances, but showed his strongest energy late when we saw him last in mid-February. He should be finishing well once again.Race 6:Grade: B+Use: 5 Paige Turner/4 Color Comin’ In; 9 Steer Clear; 14 Heaven’s BoltForecast: My other strongest opinion on the Oaks Day extravaganza comes in this first-level allowance at 6.5-furlongs over the main track where #5 Paige Turner makes her first start as a 3YO for trainer Cherie DeVaux. The $350k OBS March 2025 purchase ran three good races as a juvenile, including a runner-up effort to On Time Girl in her lone start versus winners. The daughter of Army Mule has been training forwardly for her return and draws nicely. She should be tough. Do not leave #4 Color Comin’ In out underneath. The Norm Casse trainee showed talent as a 2YO and then needed her comeback race in Arkansas in late February. She has been training far more like herself since and adds blinkers.Race 7: Unbridled Sidney (G2)Grade: C+Use: 9 Shoot It True; 6 Shisospicy/ 4 Creed’s Gold; 1 Mae TownForecast: There is no doubt the first stakes of the afternoon goes through #6 Shisospicy. The daughter of Mitole makes her first start since a dominant gate-to-wire win in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint. Her speed and her best make her the clear one to beat and tough to toss, but the tote will show that. Perhaps she is not at 100% off the layoff. #9 Shoot It True is worth a look at least. She had everything go wrong when failing at Keeneland versus lesser in early April. Shaking off the rust in Lexington and the move to an outside draw should have her more relaxed in this one.Race 8: Eight Belles (G2)Grade: C+Use: 8 Goodall; 4 Paradise; 6 Sippin Pretty; 3 River WindForecast: #8 Goodall is my top choice in this 7-furlong dash for 3YO fillies. The Spendthrift Farm gal had a strong winter finishing second in a field of 12 on debut and followed it up with a pair of solid wins. She meets a group that has speed, but does not break nearly as well as her. This could allow Flavien Prat to get the jump and settle into a good stride in the clear. If they go at it upfront a bit, do not be surprised if #4 Paradise is involved late. The Gun Runner filly has tactical speed, but cuts back out of a 9-furlong race. I expect her to finish much stronger on the turn back to 7-panels.Race 9: Alysheba (G2)Grade: C+Use: 7 Skippylongstocking, 2 Baeza/1 Navajo WarriorForecast: I am looking forward to this Grade 2 event for the older handicap horses, but it is not a race I plan to dive into head first. #2 Baeza is obviously capable off the layoff and in Bill Mott’s barn, but is not a great bet. A 1 1/16-miles might be sharper than he prefers, plus last year’s 3YO crop has yet to prove they deserve to be over bet against older runners. Therefore, I landed on #7 Skippylongstocking. He has the recency edge and appears to be in as good of form as ever. He is 0 for 2 over this surface though, which makes backing at him at his likely price underwhelming too.Race 10: Modesty (G3)Grade: XUse: 6 GezoraForecast: I have little desire in trying to beat the heavy favorite in this 1 1/8-miles excursion over the grass. #6 Gezora makes her first start since springing a 9-1-upset in the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf last fall. She comes in off a steady work tab and gets Flavien Prat. There are no free squares in racing, particularly at this level, but taking her on is not something I plan to do.Race 11: La Troienne (G1)Grade: C+Use: 1 Bless the Broken; 8 Dry PowderForecast: This year’s La Troienne (G1) is far more wide-open than the last couple of years when Thorpedo Anna and Idiomatic both went off at odds-on. I like #1 Bless the Broken most. The daughter of Laoban spent the early part of her career in the Will Walden barn, but was purchased last November for $950,000 by the current connections. She ran well in her first two starts for her new barn, including a runner-up effort to the extremely talented Splendora on her turf in the Beholder Mile (G1). Irad getting the call should ensure a good trip from the rail in her third start off the bench.Race 12: Edgewood (G2)Grade: C+Use: 3 Imaginationthelady; 9 DandonaForecast: This year’s Edgewood is also wide-open on paper, but I am not overly creative unfortunately. #9 Dandona is the best finisher in the field, but may not get the pace she needs to be at her best. If they go quick, I love her chances, but if not #3 Imaginationthelady should get the trip. The Not This Time filly makes her second start off the bench after being part of a blanket finish in the Appalachian (G2). She has more tactical speed than most and draws favorably along the rail.Race 13: Kentucky Oaks (G1)Grade: B-Use: 10 Prom Queen, 2 Zany; 9 Always a Runner/12 Bella BallerinaForecast: The featured event really opened up with the results of the last preps. I ended up liking three fillies equally in the end. #10 Prom Queen is my lukewarm top choice. The Gary and Mary West homebred needs to avoid getting caught up in a potential early battle, but has done little wrong thus far. The daughter of Quality Road has been pointed to two-turn races all along and has won both of them thus far for fun. Trip will be everything in this race, but all things equal I like Prom Queen to run well in her first start outside of Florida. #2 Zany lost to #11 Percy’s Bar in the Ashland (G1), but did not have nearly the trip the Ben Colebrook runner did. With the move to an inside draw, Zany should get a great trip if she is able to relax in the early going. She has been a handful and green at times still as a 3YO. #9 Always a Runner is my third “A”. The Gun Runner filly finished extremely well in the Gazelle in her first start against winners. She has unlimited upside at this point.Best of luck on the first of two fantastic cards!

The Kentucky Derby is hailed as “the most exciting 2 minutes in sports.” But horse racing fans who pour into Churchill Downs this weekend will be treated to an exciting 2 days of action before the Run for the Roses. The $1.5 million Kentucky Oaks (G1) will highlight the Friday, May 1 card and cap an all-graded stakes Pick 3 that shapes up this way:CD 11th Race (6:56 p.m. EST) -- FULLY SUBSCRIBED won back-to-back graded stakes at 1-1/8 miles to cap her 3-year-old season. She beat Grade 1-winning millionaire Quietside and last year’s Kentucky Oaks runner-up Drexel Hill (#11 in here) by 4-plus lengths and is working forwardly for today’s Grade 2 La Troienne at 1-1/16 miles, her first Grade 1 test. DRY POWDER appeared to be forced wide on the backstretch after stumbling at the start of a one-mile allowance, but she inhaled rivals on the turn and won in a manner that stamps her a live longshot on the big step up in class. She makes her third start this year and has a near miss in the Grade 1 Cotillion – another $1 million race at this distance – to summon. MISS JUSTIFY won a minor stakes race at Churchill Downs at this distance during a $291k sophomore season in 2024. She raced only twice in 2025 for Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, now starts anew for trainer Brendan Walsh, who is 37-for-173 (21 percent) with long-distance runners since February 14. At 15-1, include her on the Pick 3 ticket.CD 12th Race (7:40 p.m. EST) -- STORM’S WAKE, IMAGINATIONTHELADY, JUST ALOOF, LION LAKE and DANDONA not only bring graded stakes-winning turf routes to the table in the $600,000 Edgewood (G-2) at 1-1/16 miles, but all have shown steady improvement. DANDONA got first run on LION LAKE on the final turn of the Grade 3 Florida Oaks, but both finished well on a ‘good’ Tampa Bay Downs surface that favored closers. JUST ALOOF slipped through a rail opening and led between calls in the stretch of a solid one-mile comeback, but she leveled off late. Add TIME TO DREAM, LORELEI and TAM TAM to the list in a deep second leg of the sequence.CD 13th race (8:40 p.m. EST) -- You can go dizzy handicapping the Grade 1 Kentucky Oaks. To put the $1.5 million race for 3-year-old fillies in perspective, consider this: the 14 entrants in the main body of the 1-1/8-mile test have started 22 times in Grade 1 or Grade 2 races, combining for 10 wins and nine seconds and spanning nine tracks nationwide. PROM QUEEN was most impressive in winning the Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Oaks, stalking a soft pace while 4-wide to the far turn, ranging up on the pace setter under confident handling and taking command in the final sixteenth. Trainer Brad Cox is 141-for-467 (30 percent) the last two years with a positive return on investment with repeat winners. ALWAYS A RUNNER (pictured), one of two entrants to race at this distance, did so in winning the Grade 3 Gazelle at Aqueduct. She made an eye-catching inside burst on the final turn, appeared as if she wouldn’t reach pace controller PASHMINA (#13) in mid-stretch, but had to find another gear late to prevail as the top pair separated from the field. Her sire, 2017 Horse of the Year Gun Runner, produced four multiple Grade 1-winning routers and seven multimillionaires.Suggested $1 Pick 3 TicketCD 11th Race: 4, 8, 9CD 12th Race: 1, 3, 4, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11CD 13th Race: 9, 10Cost: $48 Be sure to play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon this Friday and Saturday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for your share of extra cash. 

The Lead:It doesn't get any better than Kentucky Derby Day: great horses, giant pools, expanded wagering options. We have you covered for the Run for the Roses in the 1/ST Kentucky Derby Wager Guide. But the annual lead-in is the Turf Classic, and an international cast of 10 will precede the Kentucky Derby in Race 11. It's a part of several multi-race and multi-day bets including a 2-day pick 3, 2-day pick 6 and Saturday all-turf pick 4 ... among the traditional, multi-race sequences. Be sure to play in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon this Friday and Saturday at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet for your share of extra cash.​​Field Depth:Grade 1 winners PROGRAM TRADING, RHETORICAL, GOLD PHOENIX and TEST SCORE have signature scores on their ledgers, while MERCANTE is Grade 1-placed. Grade 2 winners include ASBURY PARK and foreign raider MAKE ME KING.​Pace:CORRUPTION and MERCANTE could set a modest pace here with RHETORICAL and ASTRONOMER most likely to apply pressure if it's to come. A deep closer could be compromosed by this race shape.​Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.#1-CORRPUTION: Rail pace player has been turned into a turf marathoner while facing lesser competition. Worst races on his form have come at Churchill and at the Grade 1 level, so bad combination for Saturday’s assignment. Impacts the tempo if Johnny V is aggressive holding position.#2-DASHMAN: Another who hasn’t shown the propensity to compete with sharp, middle-distance turfers. Likely to expend more in keeping up than he’d prefer and be left empty late despite a good post draw. Jockey Joel Rosario comes off a disappointing Keeneland performance.#3-ASBURY PARK: October returnee takes on elders for the first time in stakes company, but 4-year-olds have been very strong in this race over the years. Well-bred Frankel colt broke his maiden off a10-month layoff last summer and can fire fresh under Flavien Prat – who jumps off Grade 1 winner Program Trading to pilot. There cause for pause and optimism, so demand that 8-1 morning line price. Chad Brown aims for a 3-peat in the Turf Classic.#4-PROGRAM TRADING: The 2024 Turf Classic winner (pictured, inside) missed the spring of 2025 on the sidelines and returns at age 6. Chad Brown adds blinkers to this $1.6 million earner for the first time in 13 starts, but Flavien Prat jumps seats to ride stablemate Asbury Park. Okay efforts in the Pegasus World Cup Turf and Mervin Muniz Memorial in his 2 starts this year, but he’s 0-for-5 since being sidelined over 14 months beginning in summer 2024.#5-MERCANTE: 13-1 runner-up here a season ago in the Turf Classic has gone 1-for-7 since, but very consistent in races beyond a mile. Reliable Brian Knippenberg trainee hasn’t missed the super in 4 tries over this course and takes the same prep path as a year ago when he just missed defending his title in Turfway’s Kentucky Cup Classic on synthetic. Probably a double-digit price again and not without a case.#6-RHETORICAL: True miler will be tested at his farthest distance to date, but it’s difficult to argue this one’s consistent brilliance. Trainer Will Walden is having a banner 2026 on the stats ledger and regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr. is worth a couple lengths alone the way he’s been riding. Clearly the horse to beat as the 5-2 morning line favorite and very well could be shorter than that. Perhaps the distance questions help hold that price.#7-GOLD PHOENIX: Eight-year-old Duke of Del Mar finished a late-running fourth in this race last year and returns from his California base. Phil D’Amato has San Luis Rey Stakes-winning pilot Hector Berrios back for the ride as that jockey is in town to ride Intrepido in the Derby. The 1-1/8 miles distance is perhaps a too-sharp trip for this gelding who excels at 10-12 furlongs, but his effort last year puts him in the exotics hunt.#8-ASTRONOMER: After starting his career 3-for-6, he stepped into the stakes ranks and hasn’t found the winner’s circle in 19 tries. But it’s without some close calls, 3 times a Grade 2 runner-up. Appears a cut below these for trainer Simon Callaghan. Expect Javier Castellano to have him closer to the pace than many of his previous starts.#9-TEST SCORE: Ever-consistent Graham Motion trainee was runner-up in the American Turf last year during Derby Weekend when facing fellow 3-year-olds. He’s proven himself against elders, winning January’s Pegasus World Cup Turf at Gulfstream under Manny Franco, his regular rider who returns Saturday. The caution is the 3-month layoff as he lost his debut and exiting a similar break to open his 2025 season as the favorite – showing some vulnerability on being able to win off of works alone.#10-MAKE ME KING: World traveler makes his US debut, having raced in Dubai, Qatar, England and France. Wathnan Racing and trainer Hamad Al-Jehani won Woodbine’s Grade 1 Canadian International last Fall with Silawi. This Dark Angel colt has been a pure miler overseas until stretching out last time when fourth in the Grade 1 Dubai Turf. That fourth-place finish behind internationally acclaimed Ombudsman would stack up well with these. I like international horses pairing with American jockeys, and Jose Ortiz has been off to a blazing start at Churchill Downs.Most Likely Exotics Contender:RHETORICAL is 8-8 in the superfecta, and while the trip might be a bit farther than his best, expect him to be thoroughly involved in the stretch.Best Longshot Contender:MERCANTE may fit the winning trends of this race best of all. Over the past 13 years, horses coming off top-2 finishes between a mile and 1-1/18 miles while racing within the last 42 days have had overwhelming success in the Turf Classic. He’ll match up with a slew of horses shortening trips, returning from layoffs and trying to bounce back from worse defeats.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$25 win MERCANTE. $25 exacta part-wheel ASBURY PARK, RHETORICAL, TEST SCORE over MERCANTE ($75).

We are just two days away from the 152nd Kentucky Derby and I could not be more excited! Things pick up quite a bit in terms of quality on Thursday, which also marks the final chance at our month long “Blooming Bankrolls” promotion. For those just checking in, it is simple. Register on the promotional landing page, bet $100 on the Thurby card at Churchill Downs, and earn a $10 bonus. Here are the horses I plan to use to earn my $10.Race 7:My first play on the Thurby card comes in this MSW event for fillies and mares at two-turns over the grass where #1 Honfleur is likely to be a significant favorite. The Chad Brown trainee comes in off a pair of runner-up efforts since moving to the lawn in January. The presence of Flavien Prat and the inside draw should ensure a good trip, but I do not trust her to seal the deal. I prefer #4 Cape Sounion. The daughter of No Nay Never made her first start in the States and off a near 7-month break at Gulfstream Park in late March. The race was conducted over the all-weather not the lawn and things did not go well for this Brendan Walsh conditioned filly. She broke slow as the 6-5-favorite and struggled to relax from there. Cape Sounion should run a lot better in her second start in North America after shaking off the rust and getting accustomed to her new surroundings. Walsh legs up his main man Tyler Gaffalione for the first time.Play: #4 Cape Sounion (3-1 ML)Race 9: Opening VerseThere is no doubt this one-mile event over the lawn goes through #8 Lagynos. The son of Kantharos was excellent in New Orleans this winter winning a pair of graded stakes convincingly. That said, he is just 1 for 8 at Churchill Downs and is going to be a short price, so I will try to turn the tables on him with #5 Chasing the Crown. Unlike the favorite, this 7YO has thrived in Louisville throughout his career. In fact, he is 4 for 7 with 2 seconds over this turf course. The pace should be honest given the presence of #4 Quatrocento and #7 Mi Bago, which gives the son of Skipshot his best chance to spring the upset. He should be set for his best after a fourth-place effort to Lagynos to start the form cycle. Juan Hernandez will be aboard for the first time.Play: #5 Chasing the Crown (15-1 ML)Race 10: St. MatthewsThis 6-furlong dash over the main track is almost always a competitive one and this year is no exception. #2 Built was made the 3-1-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro, but there are likely to be a few horses that take significant public support. One of those is #3 Be You. The Repole Stable gelding makes his second start off the bench after racing against the flow and moving wide into the lane in the Carter (G2) in early April. John Velazquez was aboard him when he won in Kentucky last fall and will be back onboard for the first time since. He should get an honest pace to run at. If he does, I expect him to out finish this field.Play: #3 Be You (4-1 ML)

1/ST KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDEFree Access | link Wednesday Wager Guide Updates:-- Millie Ball Kentucky Derby Analysis & Betting Strategy-- Scott Shapiro Kentucky Derby Analysis & Betting Strategy-- Jeremy Plonk Kentucky Derby Analysis & Betting Strategy-- 1/ST Handicappers Consensus Oaks & Derby Picks **-handicappers continually adding as availableDERBY DOINGS FOR WEDNESDAY-- Silent Tactic: will scratch as trainer Mark Casse reported a foot bruise (Preakness possible)-- Great White: draws into the field due to the scratch; wears saddle towel 21DERBY ON DECKScott Shapiro: Thursday Churchill Downs Bet $100, Get $10 Promo Plays | coming soonHorse Cents Podcast: Bailey Armour & Scott Shapiro | Kentucky Derby Wagering Strategies1/ST Call Podcast: Jeremy Plonk & Scott Shapiro | Kentucky Derby 20 Questions for Each ContenderIT PAYS TO PLAYBet Kentucky Oaks Friday and Derby Saturday with 1/ST BET and take part in the $20,000 Exacta-Thon for your share of bonus cash. Details.

1/ST KENTUCKY DERBY WAGER GUIDEFree Access | link SPECIAL WAGERSPreakness Future Wager | open now through SaturdayNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 6 | $50,695 | Tampa Bay Downs | begins Race 4 | 2:05 pm ETKEY RACESChurchill Downs | Race 6 | 3:20 pm ET | Kentucky Juvenile StakesChurchill Downs | Race 9 | 4:56 pm ET | Isaac Murphy Marathon StakesLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXTampa Bay Downs | Race 5 | 2:35 pm ETChurchill Downs | Race 10 | 5:27 pm ETEvangeline Downs | Race 8 | 9:40 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMichael Simone | Tampa Bay Downs | all 6 entrants 4-1 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Churchill Downs | favorites are 16-28 (57%) through the first 3 days of the meetPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Churchill Downs Wednesday Spot PlaysFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

Miami Valley has a 14-race card. The 0.50 Late Pick 4 starts in Race 11, and it will be my focus. Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.Race 11 (7:30 PM EDT)1-Mega Money (7-1)-This is the 4th start in the Todd Luther barn and has a win plus 3rd and 4th place finishes versus this company. The last 2 starts came from post 8 and 10. Will take a swing with the 1-hole will look for this mare to post a win against this kind at a nice price.6-Vekna (9/2)-Steps up but so do 3 others. Went off at 1-9 last time, drew off by 5 lengths and could be a square price. Did hit the board in the last 4 races and has enough early speed to get a close-up seat.7-Global Sensation (4-1)-Has been facing tougher and is still looking for its 1st picture this year. Has finished 2nd in the past 4 races including last week. Stayed inside after leaving from post 5, and tonight David Miller should have the pedal down. Can get a top of the stack trip versus this kind.Race 12 (7:51 PM EDT)4-Art Of Racing (5/2)-Miller posts 24% winners when driving for the Perrin barn and this mare comes off her best finish in a while. Was used early and was able to pass horses down the lane to finish 3rd. Will string along and look for the upswing to continue.5-Goldies Adelight A (2-1)-Took advantage off quick fractions and a sharp steer to drop and pop against this kind. Could double up but won't be close to 4-1.Race 13 (8:12 PM EDT)1-Herecomescharlie B (5/2)-Dropped 2 back, after taking a month off and came 3rd. Returned 6 days later, dropped again and this time took a picture. Takes a good step up but is still facing softer than before the time off. Using here after a confidence booster and thinking the program odds could be low.7-Southwind Mai Tai (7/2)-In the last 3 starts has had posts 7-8 and 10. Now drops to the level of its last win. Needs a trip and should be a player with Dave Miller at the controls.Race 14 (8:33 PM EDT)4-Delco Kathleen (5/2)-Interesting taffy pull with not much form to chew on. This mare finished 2nd in last, now steps up and has taken 3 pictures in 12 races at MVR. Gets a decent post draw, Chris Page sticks, and that's enough to make it the program chalk. Its recent resume is better than most and with a smooth steer could be posing.5-Arrival (6-1)-This veteran hasn't had much love from the post draw gods and now lands in a choice slot. Is 0-11, looking for a price and for Marvin Luna not being too far back when the wings fold. If she gets away with a decent seat, and the fractions are honest this mare can close well.$1 Late Pick 41,6,7/4,5/1,7/4,5Total Bet=$24Check me out on X!

Derby Week continues on Wednesday afternoon at Churchill Downs when the first stakes action commences. I did not have strong takes on either the Kentucky Juvenile or the Issac Murphy Marathon, but there are a few runners I do like on the ten-race card that kicks off at 12:45 eastern. Here are my top plays on the first hump day card of the year in Louisville.Race 1:The lid lifter is an open $16k claimer at one mile over the main track where 5-2-ML favorite #1 Empire Builder was the made the 5-2-ML favorite by oddsmaker Nick Tammaro. The Classic Empire gelding takes a big drop in class for trainer Armando Hernandez after battling early and tiring late in a $62,500 claimer at Oaklawn Park in mid-March. The Florida-bred has the speed to control the early pace from his inside draw, but one has to wonder if he will be at his best on the multiple level drop. He certainly is capable of taking this field gate-to-wire with his best, but I do not trust him, so I will try to beat him with #8 National Eclipse. The son of Alternation was claimed by trainer Robertino Diodoro and Flying P Stable after his stalk and fade effort against better at Fair Grounds. He cuts back to one-turn, draws favorably to the far outside in this field of 8, and attracts Irad Ortiz, Jr. He should get a perfect stalking trip off the likely pacesetter. Hopefully, the foundation of the route events in New Orleans this winter allows him to out finish this bunch.Play: #8 National Eclipse (7-2 ML)Race 3:My next spot play comes in this MSW event for 2YO fillies at 4.5-furlongs over the main track where I will try a long shot. #1 Barometric makes her first career start for trainer Tim Hamm. Hamm does not sport big numbers when shipping 2YOs into Louisville at first asking, but has proven capable nonetheless. Hamm sends out this Frosted filly who is out of a Harlan’s Holiday mare that won on debut at Churchill Downs in early May ’16 over this same surface and distance. Barometric will have to break well from her inside draw, but has the right man in the saddle in Luis Saez. If Saez can do his thing and get his mount out of the gate in good order, the Runnymoore Racing runner has precocity in the blood and can take the shortest distance into the quick run into the turn with a clean start.Play: #1 Barometric (15-1 ML)Race 8:My final play of the Wednesday before Derby card comes in this $50k starter at 7-furlongs over the main track where #3 Sharons Beach was made the 5-2-ML choice after a runner-up effort as the chalk in a similar spot at Keeneland three weeks ago. Trainer Jonathan Thomas adds blinkers to this son of Omaha Beach who has burnt a lot of money thus far. I will hope to stalk off Sharons Beach and take control at the top of the lane with #4 Mo Work. The 4YO gelding aims to make it two wins in a row after being claimed out of a $40k N2L spot just 13 days ago for trainer Mark Simms Jr. Simms protects his new gelding and retains the services of Luis Saez. If he can avoid major regression off the career best run in Lexington, he should be in a perfect spot to make it back-to-back victories for his new barn.Play: #4 Mo Work (4-1 ML)