Saturday’s Oaklawn card is one of the biggest of the long Hot Springs season, featuring the Grade 3 Count Fleet Sprint and the Grade 1 Apple Blossom. Those co-features make up two spots in the late pick 5 sequence that spans Races 8-12.Let’s get to work.Race 8: Count Fleet Sprint HandicapA fantastic pace should give closers #8 Dreaminblue and #7 Tejano Twist every chance, but it’s behind quality speed that doesn’t have to wilt. I’ll trust #5 Roll On Big Joe and #4 Mad House most amongst the early pace players. Intra-race I’ll lean to value with Dreaminblue on the class rise.Race 9: maiden special weight#9 Munnings Challenge ran a strong debut second for Brad Cox and should graduate in her second start as a single. The Munnings filly is out of the outstanding local sprint mare Amy’s Challenge. She catches 8 rivals that include 6 first-time starters, mostly for barns with rather unthreatening debut stats. #1 No More Kings would be the alternative but has already had 5 attempts, several for claiming tags.Race 10: Apple Blossom HandicapThe long series of Oaklawn preps emptying into the Apple Blossom Handicap have shown a consistent and strong local cast. The new faces showing up in the $1.25 million main event are primarily adding more speed to the fold. That won’t hurt #3 Regaled (3-1 ML) and #2 Majestic Oops (9-2 ML), who actually may move up with the additional pace. They ran 1-2 in the same-trip Azeri Stakes, but Regaled gets the nod Saturday with this being her second start off a layoff and a sharper-than-usual work at Churchill Sunday before hitting the road. I don’t like to go 2-deep and double the cost of a ticket when those horses both have the same running style. If it sets up for a closer like I project it will, then I am riding with Regaled.Race 11: allowanceDeep group of 11 allowance milers requires some coverage. #1 Favorite Day (5-2) stacks up with these nicely but may be overbet after coming out of a very fast race against loose-leading Reagan’s Honor, a 3-year-old who bombed next out in the Blue Grass Stakes. Ron Moquett’s barn has been struggle city this season at Oaklawn, so you have to upgrade a horse with 2 wins and a third in 3 starts for the ice-cold operation like #6 Expect the Best (7-2). #9 Bourbon Society has led nearly every step in 2 starts (wins) at the current meet. There’s other pace competition, but the price is right at 12-1 ML.Race 12: maiden claimingThe process of handicapping elimination in the finale left me with three morning line choices simply by default of not disliking them as much as the others. Beyond #6 El Chavo (7-2) for Steve Asmussen, #7 Conway (3-1) for Ron Moquett and #10 Ripples Rocket (4-1) for Allen Milligan, there’s very little embraceable form in this capacity field of 12. But that trio has had 16 tries between them and 3 exacta finishes while trying to graduate at the bottom level. Instead of creating false confidence, let’s spread our wings, wheel the field and shoot for a longshot. The budget play is to reduce to the short-priced trio and concede that your new best-case scenario is a smaller return.The Ticket:8,4,5,7 with 9 with 3 with 1,6,9 with ALL = $72 for 50 cents.

One of my favorite wagers of the Keeneland Spring Meet is their $3 Turf Pick 3. I have spoken about these bets a number of times already this year at both Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park and Keeneland offers its own version. The 15% player friendly wager takes place over the last three turf events on a given card and is one of the better options throughout the boutique meet. Here are my thoughts on Friday’s sequence that begins in Race 5 and concludes with a salty edition of the featured Maker’s Mark Mile (G1).Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.Race 5:Grade: C+Main Ticket: 1 Goats On a Tree; 6 Wind Flower; 10 OnemoredanceBackups: NoneForecast: Friday’s Turf 3 gets started with this second-level allowance at 1 1/16 miles and appears to have a lack of early speed signed on. #6 Wind Flower is one of those likely to be prominently placed after breaking her maiden in gate-to-wire fashion in February at Gulfstream Park. The task is taller against this group, but she is dangerous if Junior Alvarado is able to control the early tempo. I will use her and a couple of others, including top choice #1 Goats On a Tree. The 5YO mare has taken on softer competition throughout most of her career, but has 6 wins in 19 starts to show for it. The Mike Maker trainee drew favorably along the inside, which should allow jockey Juan Hernandez to find favorable forward position early. She offers solid value at her 12-1-ML offering. #10 Onemoredance is the wild card. The Qatar Racing filly makes her first start in the States. Her races in Ireland put her squarely in the mix.Race 7: Limestone (G3)Grade: B-Main Ticket: 8 LenniluBackups: 1 Sapphire BeachForecast: This 5.5-furlong dash over the grass marks the return of Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint winner #9 Cy Fair. The Not This Time filly was a neck away from going undefeated in her 2YO campaign and retains the services of Irad Ortiz Jr. for her start of 2026. She is no doubt the filly to beat and deserving 9-5-ML choice, but a tough one for me to get excited about wagering on off the layoff. There is really no reason to know whether she will pick up where she left off last year or if the crop will catch up to her, but at her price taking a shot against is a must.I will try to get the jump on her with #8 Lennilu. The daughter of Leinster holds the recency edge having raced once since getting beaten by Cy Fair in the Breeders’ Cup. She did what she needed to in her return race in Florida and should be a significantly better price. #1 Sapphire Beach is also slightly intriguing. The Three Diamonds Farm filly moves inside for the first time, which may lead to an aggressive ride out of the gate by jockey Jose Ortiz. Her price is good enough to include as a backup.Race 9: Maker’s Mark Mile (G1)Grade: XMain Ticket: 4 Notable SpeechBackups: NoneForecast: The Maker’s Mark Mile came up strong this year, but I still think the chalk is a bit of a standout. #4 Notable Speech also makes his first start since a victory at Del Mar in the Breeders’ Cup. The star Godolphin miler got a better trip than #1 Rhetorical that day, but is also just a better finisher. He has the strongest turn of foot in the field and one of the best riders in the world shipping in to ride him once again. With William Buick aboard, the Charles Appleby trainee should be a handful to hold off late in the Keeneland stretch.

Oaklawn Park’s $3 Get Out Pick 3 wager paid $954 last week with 2-1 and 7-5 winners in the first two legs. With more than $53,000 in the pool last week, it’s worth a playback for the card this Friday, April 10:OP 8th Race (5:34 p.m. EST) -- More than half the field in this $20,000 claimer have a $200,000-plus bankroll. PAYNE is nearing millionaire status and has finished first or second in 18 of 32 starts at 6F, but he turned in a sub-par effort as the favorite after a voided claim two starts ago, mandating a deeper punch in the leadoff leg. GEE NO HOLLANDER seeks a duplicate of his 15-1 upset off the claim. He slipped through a rail opening midway on the turn and exploded away from the 2-1 second favorite in the final eighth, prompting announcer Matt Dinerman to say “he looks like he’s 1-to-5 today.” The race timed 4/5 of a second slower than a $50,000 claimer in the next race. INNOVA has speed, a fastest-of-70 workout March 27, and fits on his best effort in his second start as a 4-year-old. Trainer Mike Maker is on a 19/6-3-1 streak with second-off-the-claim runners. HOLIDAY HOUSE ranged up on the turn and flattened out against off-track specialist KONTEEKEE, but he gets in light-weighted and can factor at an inflated price if he gets position from post 11.OP 9th Race (6:06 p.m. EST) -- Four entrants arrive in today’s featured $125,000 allowance off lifetime best speed figures (91 average Beyers). MASTER MULE was most impressive, blowing past the favorite in the final eighth and widening the margin after the wire. He moves inside out but is today’s solo play, nonetheless, in his third start for the red-hot Able Ramirez-Rodriguez barn.OP 10th race (6:38 p.m. EST) -- IGNITING EMBERS dueled to “command” for the stretch drive and battled gamely to the final furlong before a trio of closers got past him. Arrietta rides for the first time. REBEL RIDGE worked fast but didn’t factor in his debut, but he improved in his second start to finish ahead of IGNITING EMBERS despite dropping back on the turn and not changing leads in the stretch. FLAT OUT BLESSED’S improved form with blinkers was shrouded by a bumpy start and very wide backstretch run, but he’s worth using on the Get Out Pick 3 at a big price.Suggested $3 Get Out Pick 3 TicketOP 8th Race: 2, 4, 6, 11OP 9th Race: 10OP 10th Race: 1, 3, 6Cost: $36

EXTRA INCENTIVES10X 1/ST Rewards Points | Pisa (Italy) | today’s racesBet $100, Get $10 | Penn National | today’s racesTOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | DetailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSPick 6 | $50,563 | Aqueduct | begins Race 2 | 1:38 pm ETPick 6 | $11,649 | Oaklawn | begins Race 3 | 2:52 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $13,660 | Gulfstream | Race 8 | 4:29 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $128,475 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 3 | 5:11 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 2 | 1:32 pm ETOaklawn | Race 8 | 5:34 pm ETEvangeline Downs | Race 4 | 7:51 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHAnthony Farrior | Charles Town | 6 of 7 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Penn National | favorites won 6 of 7 races on the cardPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMJeremy Plonk: Penn National Bet $100, Get $10 Promo Picks for ThursdayFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section

The “Blooming Bankrolls” promotion this April at 1/ST BET and Xpressbet offers a $10 bonus when you bet $100 or more at select tracks each Tuesday and Thursday. Penn National will be the track spotlighted for this Tuesday. Here’s how I’ll approach that card with the help of the Betmix Angler database.Penn National: Race 4#6 Shout to the Lord (3-1 morning line odds) makes her Penn National debut for a Todd Beattie barn that has won with 5 of 6 starters since March 6. Lightly raced Curlin mare has back class and fit very well regionally in Laurel sprints previously. Win bet #6.Penn National: Race 7#6 Tallahatchiebridge (5-2 morning line odds) gets a major jockey change here to David Cora, who has won 5 of his last 7 two-turn route mounts at Penn National (all paid $6-$12). Veteran has been most competitive in his one start at this class level sprinting in December. Bruce Kravets and David Cora have a winning ROI in tandem. Win bet #6.

The Lead:The Week 2 feature of the Keeneland Spring Meeting is this 1-1/16 miles turf tilt for the fillies and mares. The Jenny Wiley will be Race 9 of 11 on the Saturday program that co-features the Lexington Stakes. Horseplayers be sure to take part $10 Money-Back Special on all Kentucky Derby preps this season with 1/ST BET and Xpressbet. That includes Saturday's Lexington Stakes at Keeneland.​​Field Depth:Grade 1 winners include DYNAMIC PRICING, SEGESTA and LUSH LIPS. DESTINO D'ORO is a multiple Grade 2 winner. MEDORO is Grade 1-placed. DYNAMIC PRICING and SEGESTA hold the strongest company lines having faced elder filly and mare turf division stars more often than their rivals Saturday.​Pace:Quite modest. AUSSIE GIRL may be on the lead with LUSH LIPS in close accordance. There's not a lot of heat projected unless SEGESTA comes out humming from the outside.Our Eyes:Here are my horse-by-horse notes.#1-EXPENSIVE QUEEN: 3-for-4 in the US since exporting from England and coming to Brendan Walsh, including a local allowance win. Bar far her toughest test, and while she’s willing late, her BRIS late pace figures haven’t been strong enough this year to blow by all of these.#2-FAST MARKET: John Terranova trainee comes off a November layoff and faces elder stakes fillies and mares for the first time. Vastly tougher bunch here than she’s faced with no hint she’s this level while losing Flavien Prat to Segesta. More worried about the competition than the layoff, but she does punch late.#3-MEDORO: Disappointed twice at Fair Grounds when failing to deliver big efforts while racing on Lasix, edging a win at 6-5 and posting a runner-up at 3-5. Peter Eurton trainee may be more skilled on top-of-ground racing in California. Stable had some Week 2 Spring Meet success at Keeneland last year, but mare still seems a cut below the top runners here despite being another solid finisher.#4-PIN UP BETTY: Veteran is 10-for-20 in the exacta but has done most of her damage at Churchill Downs and has just been okay over this course. Luis Saez jumps to ride Exclusive Queen as Mike Maker turns to Joel Rosario. Strong effort in a very difficult race last year off the winter break and that’s encouraging for this November returnee. But she’s just okay late on BRIS late pace figures.#5-DYNAMIC PRICING: First of 2 for 7-time Jenny Wiley winner Chad Brown, whose charges have won this race 5 times in the last 7 years. She won her first start and won her 2025 return off an 8-month hiatus, so she’s got a history of firing fresh and has trained right on cue for her first try since October. In-betweener wasn’t good enough to take on the boys in the Breeders’ Cup Mile and not enough stamina for the Filly & Mare Turf at 1-3/8 miles. This kind of Grade 1 and those at Churchill and Saratoga to come are in her wheelhouse.#6-DEEP SATIN: Winless in 3 graded-stakes attempts to date, American Pharoah mare is just 1 for her last 6 and returns from a November layoff. She was a good second here in Spring 2025 off the bench in an allowance spot and has never run a bad race. Late kick has been lacking and it’s likely a no-lead, no-pass situation for her when they real running begins.#7-LUSH LIPS: Elite last year against the sophomore turf filly class, she stepped into the elder ranks nicely Feb. 28 in Gulfstream’s Honey Fox, a move many don’t handle easily. Tactical running style keeps her in every race and she’s 10-for-10 in the exacta since coming to trainer Brendan Walsh. Win over the course a feather in her cap. She’s got wire-to-wire wins on her ledger and may be tasked with the pace in a race that lacks standout speed.#8-DESTINO D’ORO: Like Lush Lips, she transitioned smoothly into the elder turf mare ranks in Florida this winter, winning the Pegasus World Cup Turf and the Hillsborough among a 3-stakes winning streak. Trainer Brad Cox won 3 graded stakes at Keeneland last Saturday and looks to keep that rolling. Late runner has put up highly competitive BRIS late pace figures in her last pair and has a penchant for winning the close ones (nose, half-length, head in her last 3 scores).#9-AUSSIE GIRL: Most likely pacesetter Saturday exits a wire-to-wire score in the Grade 3 Endeavor at Tampa Bay Downs for Will Walden. It was her first time making the lead, but typically races forward and this pace could be to her liking. Ben Curtis was one of the most valuable stakes jockeys to follow in America last year. 6-year-old won her only Keeneland try during the 2024 Fall Meet and is 11-21 in the exacta.#10-SEGESTA: Second of 2 Chad Brown trainees as he aims for a record-padding eighth Jenny Wiley win. She’s been a pure miler, so 1-1/16 miles from an outside draw may require she tuck in and not give away any additional ground from this draw -- or be hard-used to clear several runners early and then pay a price late for that. Flavien Prat has the task. The Grade 1 Matriarch winner and local Grade 1 First Lady runner-up hasn’t had strong BRIS late pace figures overall except her last start at a mile and certainly those numbers have been more flat the farther she goes.Most Likely Exotics Contender:LUSH LIPS hasn't missed an exacta in 10 straight races, has won over the course and should get a dynamite trip near the front, removing a lot of in-race variables.Best Longshot Contender:AUSSIE GIRL (8-1 ML) isn't a bomb, but this price could rise and she's going to be a factor in the early going in a race without much heat.Sending it in ($100 bankroll):$45 exactas LUSH LIPS over DYNAMIC PRICING, DESTINO D'ORO ($90). $10 exacta LUSH LIPS over AUSSIE GIRL.

The Road to Kentucky Derby 152 is essentially complete with just the Lexington (G3) left to complete this weekend. There are always some changes to the field as we approach the first Saturday of May, but for the most part horseplayers know who to expect in the starting gate for the first leg of this year’s Triple Crown. With that said, let’s dive into the final edition of 2026 Prep School.Most Impressive Horse Last Weekend: Further AdoRegardless of the field he encountered, Further Ado clearly stood out as the most impressive horse that ran in three Triple Crown preps last Saturday. The Spendthrift Farm colt found a comfortable early position under jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and pranced home to a dominant eleven-length romp. Assessing how strong the victory was in comparison to his main competition come Derby Day is a bit tricky since he clearly thrives over the Keeneland main track and did not beat much in the Blue Grass (G1). On the other hand, he has a win at Churchill Downs, has tactical speed, and probably lost less in defeat in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) to the Puma then we thought at the time. You can poke holes in Further Ado, but he certainly cemented himself as a major player in this year’s Kentucky Derby with his victory by a pole last weekend.My Derby Tiers as of April 8:Last weekend, I began the discussion of my top tier horses for the Kentucky Derby in this series. Many like Top Ten lists or other ways of comparing the best in the crop, but I prefer putting them in tiers, especially before the all-important draw. Since there is not enough data yet to make full on selections or construct bets, it seems difficult to pin point an exact number ranking for each horse. On the other hand, grouping them with others I rank similarly allows me to take the next step towards constructing bets mentally without making stances to the public that lack a bit of meaning. Being right about a top pick is great for the ego and for your readers, but has less meaning as bettor if you are betting three horses equally in the race. Here are my top three tiers for Derby 152. The first one being horses I am considering as key horses. The second being those with the ceiling to win, but are unlikely to be keys while the third tier are horses that have upside and talent, but may not be set for their best for the Derby.Tier 1: Renegade, Commandment, Chief Wallabee, The PumaThere are four horses I am considering building my wagering around in this year’s Kentucky Derby. Renegade and Commandment are likely to be two of the three favorites when they head to the gate on May 2 and their running style could put them in a tough spot if the pace is not as quick as it has been in years’ past. I will almost certainly use the off-the-pace colts on almost all of my tickets, but Chief Wallabee and The Puma should provide better value. Both have done little wrong thus far. Chief Wallabee did not finish as well as many expected in the Florida Derby (G1), but that was only his third career race. He has a chance to get the jump on many of his main rivals in Louisville and almost definitely will be double-digit odds when all is said and done. Gun to head, he would be my selection today based on value, but thankfully there is plenty of time to make the call. I am content with my top tier though a little more than three weeks out.Tier 2: Further Ado, So HappyYou cannot use them all in a 20-horse race and Further Ado is likely to be one of the odd ones out for me in the 2026 Kentucky Derby. The Brad Cox trainee has done little wrong since stretching out to two turns for the first time at Keeneland last fall, but he really does seem to have an affinity for that surface. Sure, he won in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) and ran second to The Puma in the Tampa Bay Derby (G3), but there is something about the dirt at Keeneland that brings out the best in Further Ado. There is certainly a chance, he is set for his best third off the bench and like Chief Wallabee projects to get the jump on many of his main rivals, but I side with others when it comes to the most logical options for this year’s Derby. So Happy is a bit more intriguing because he will be a way bigger price. I have questions still about the Mark Glatt trainee and his ability to get the ten furlongs at Churchill Downs, but he definitely relaxed kindly and finished well in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). I doubt he will move into my top tier over the next few weeks, but he is a solid “B” at the moment for me after his career best run last weekend.Tier 3: Emerging Market, Fulleffort, Incredibolt, PotenteThe horses outside of Tier 3 are highly unlikely to be on any of my tickets come May 2, but the jury for me is still out on the four runners in this tier. Emerging Market has obvious upside for Chad Brown after his win in the Louisiana Derby (G2), but I am not yet convinced he is ready to perform at his best quite at Churchill Downs. Fulleffort has a strong turn of foot, but has to prove himself over the dirt. I will probably end up using him underneath in the exotics. Incredibolt has shown a high ceiling, but will head into the biggest race of his career not having run since besting a soft bunch in the Virginia Derby. The upside again is there, but it will be difficult for trainer Riley Mott to have him peaking in Louisville. Finally, Potente is probably not good enough, but could have be one of those with a tactical advantage given the lack of serious speed types signed on. The fact he is the lone Bob Baffert trainee might hurt his price a touch, but hanging around for a slice seems within the range of potential outcomes.That will do it for the first year of “Prep School.” Thank you to all those that followed along with the new series this year. I am always open to ideas on how to make things better next year, so please share any with me via social media. There will be plenty of Kentucky Derby and Triple Crown content to come!

EXTRA INCENTIVES2 Million 1/ST Rewards Points Hit & Split | Keeneland | Late Pick 4TOURNAMENT TIME$100 Keeneland Feeder | DetailsNOTABLE CARRYOVERSJackpot Pick 5 | $132,332 | Parx | begins Race 1 | 12:40 pm ETSuper Hi 5 | $10,007 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | Race 6 | 4:45 pm ETJackpot Pick 6 | $114,412 | Turf Paradise | begins Race 4 | 5:39 pm ETLONGSHOT RACE ALERT FROM BETMIXKeeneland | Race 2 | 1:32 pm ETEvangeline Downs | Race 3 | 7:24 pm ETTurf Paradise | Race 8 | 7:36 pm ETTRAINERS TO WATCHMichael Moore | Parx, Penn National | 4 of 5 entrants 9-2 or less oddsDID YOU SEE?Yesterday | Horseshoe Indianapolis | jockey Fernando de la Cruz | 3 wins from 6 opening-day startersPUT US ON YOUR HANDICAPPING TEAMScott Shapiro: Keeneland Late Pick 4 Hit & Split Promo PicksFrank Carulli & Brian W. Spencer best bets today in Xpressbet.com member’s section