After months of following these young 3YOs and analyzing what took place on the first Saturday in May, we have made it to Belmont Stakes Day at Saratoga. The featured event drew an extremely strong group led by the top two finishers in last month’s Kentucky Derby. The third jewel of the Triple Crown goes as Race 13 on a star-studded 14-race extravaganza that kicks off at 11AM eastern.

The big day of stakes action also is the second day for our $20,000 Exacta-Thon promotion. 10k is up for grabs both Friday and Saturday with the goal of connecting on as many $2 exactas as possible. Those who connect on six over a given card will split $8,000. Those who connect on the most will split an additional $2k! This is a $10k offer per day, so it is an obvious no brainer. Just remember to register!

Grade Descriptions: A= Highest Degree of Confidence, B= Solid Play, C= Least Preferred or Pass, X= Likely Winner but at odds probably too short to wager on.

Race 1:
Grade: X
Use: 4 Cold Spell

Forecast: #4 Cold Spell was made the 3-5-ML favorite by oddsmaker David Aragona. The Lael Stables filly was beaten out of the gate and out finished by a Brendan Walsh runner that posted a massive number when taking advantage of a good rail on debut. Regression is likely for this Wesley Ward trainee, but she should beat this group relatively easily if she puts in anything close to her runner-up effort at Keeneland on April 23. Johnny V is back onboard.


Race 2:
Grade: B+
Use: 3 Life and Times

Forecast: This optional claimer at 7-furlongs over the main track might be bet like a two-race between #3 Life and Times and #9 Senior Officer. I much prefer Life and Times. The son of Justify got off to a late start to his career for Todd Pletcher, but ran two big races going one-turn in New York to end 2025. Pletcher gave him a shot versus graded stakes company in the Fred Hooper (G3) where he battled along the inside with Knightsbridge on a day when you wanted to be outside at Gulfstream Park. I can easily forgive his third-place effort when stalking and tiring going a route of ground in the New Orleans Classic (G2), especially since he is getting back to his preferred trip. The class relief and lack of serious early speed should make Life and Times tough to deny.


Race 3:
Grade: B-
Use: 9 Candytown; 5 Bonus Move

Forecast: The first favorite I am against on Belmont Day is #8 Intellect in this allowance route over the Inner Turf. The son of Galileo has been consistent, but it has not led to any victories since shipping into North America. He has burnt quite a bit of money along the way, including last time out when he had every shot and was no match late. I will use two against the chalk. #9 Candytown has the most upside. The Calumet Farm homebred makes his first start as a 4YO for Todd Pletcher after winning 2 of 6 on the grass as a 3YO, including a win over this course last summer. Irad Ortiz takes the call for the first time. #5 Bonus Move intrigues at a big price. The son of Twirling Candy has been given time since being beaten out of the gate and failing to fire in a very strong allowance in Florida. Paco Lopez could have the first-time gelding loose on the lead.


Race 4:
Grade: C+
Use: 4 Speightful Lily

Forecast: I lack confidence in most of this first-level allowance group, so I will take a small swing with #4 Speightful Lily. The Union Rags mare has not raced in over a year and has a spotty work tab, but attracts Flavien Prat for her first start since last April. The ability was there prior to the break, so she can spring the upset if set for her best.


Race 5:
Grade: C+
Use: 2 Eponine; 3 Carmensita

Forecast: This first-level allowance is one of the races I will likely use to catch a break since I just do not have much of an opinion. That said, I have two fillies I prefer over the rest. #2 Eponine comes in for new trainer Kevin Attard after a steady series of drills at Woodbine. She did not disgrace herself in her lone Stateside start last summer and should get a favorable trip. #3 Carmensita will be a huge price for a barn that is red-hot of late. Trainer Horacio De Paz picked up where he left off at Aqueduct to start the festival. This filly is a huge question mark making her first start in North America, but getting beat by her seems silly.


Race 6:
Grade: B+
Use: 14 Gun Range; 8 Sea Strike; 1 Playa Del Mar

Forecast: The non-stake I am looking forward to most is this first-level allowance event at 6.5-furlongs where I am against 5-2-ML favorite #5 Local Knowledge. This Yaupon colt won nicely on debut versus a salty field of 2YOs at Keeneland, but things have not gone as expected since. They were supposed to bring him back in November at Gulfstream Park, but he was scratched and has not been seen since. He is obviously capable, but will be an underlay win or lose. Three of the other logicals make sense to me with a preference to #14 Gun Range. The Wesley Ward runner was caught wide throughout on a day where the inside was the place to be at Keeneland and still won going away. He draws to the far outside, but that does not concern me too much in this spot. Hopefully, it helps his price a touch.


Race 7: Just a Game (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 2 Sandtrap; 3 Segesta

Forecast: Trainer Chad Brown has won this Grade 1 at one-mile over the Inner Turf a record eight times, including four in a row. I have no desire in trying to beat his uncoupled entry this year, but do slightly prefer 3-1 #2 Sandtrap to the 7-5-top choice #3 Segesta. She was dominant against much lesser in her first start off an 18-month layoff. If she moves forward, she can out finish her more accomplished stablemate.


Race 8: True North (G3)
Grade: B-
Use: 2 Imagination

Forecast: #3 Bentornato and #6 Book’em Danno bring massive resumes into this year’s True North, but I wonder if we can expect the best out of either of them. Bentornato makes his first start since returning from Dubai for a barn that has not had their normal success through the first five months of 2026. Book’em Danno had been on the sidelines since last summer and did not seem quite himself in the Carter (G2). I am unwilling to endorse either of these runners at their likely off odds. On the other hand, it could present some value with #2 Imagination. Trainer Bob Baffert has been hot of late and this $1.05M purchase did nothing to disgrace himself when turned away mid-stretch by a monster run from T.O. Elvis on Derby Day. I trust him most to fire his best shot.


Race 9: Jaipur (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 8 John the Beer Man/10 My Boy Prince; 3 Litigation; 6 Ag Bullet; 1 Governor Sam; 7 Clock Tower

Forecast: As you can see, there are a lot of runners I give a chance to win this year’s Jaipur, but I am willing to gamble on #8 John the Beer Man. The More Than Ready gelding has to prove he can be as good without Lasix, but should be able to make the lead in a race that does not have a ton of early speed on paper. He has been dominant in two starts since new trainer Rob Atras cut him back to a sprint and has the right man aboard to win on the front end.


Race 10: Woody Stephens (G1)
Grade: X
Use: 6 Crude Velocity/7 Englishman

Forecast: In a race that may have the best 3YO in the country, #6 Crude Velocity aims to get past #7 Englishman in back-to-back races. Last time, the two heavyweights threw it down in the Pat Day Mile (G2) with Crude Velocity pulling away late to make it 3 for 3 to start his career. NYRA attracted as strong of a group as possible to tackle the two colts, but in the end I think it comes down to these two again late. I wanted to make the case that the move outside for Englishman could give him a tactical edge, but it will likely to take some traffic issues to beat the Bob Baffert runner that has done everything right so far.


Race 11: Met Mile (G1)
Grade: X
Use: 1 Nysos/ 7 Journalism

Forecast: In another race that shapes up as a clash between two titans, #1 Nysos, who makes his first start since a runner-up effort to Forever Young in the Saudi Cup (G1) in late February takes on last year’s Preakness (G1) winner #7 Journalism. Journalism lost little in defeat in the Oaklawn H (G2) and has always been pointed to this race, but could be last early on the cutback. I expect him to fire his best shot, but not be good enough to run down Nysos. The son of Nyquist has never run anything remotely close to a poor race. In fact, his two losses are to Forever Young by a length overseas and in the race of 2025 to Mindframe by a neck. The rail draw does not concern me at all.


Race 12: Manhattan (G1)
Grade: B-
Use: 6 Bright Picture/3 Make Me King

Forecast: #7 Rhetorical was dominant last out in the Turf Classic (G1) and has three wins at Saratoga already, but faces a much taller task in this 1 3/16-mile event over the sod. I do not follow international racing nearly as much as many of my colleagues, but I know two things. #6 Bright Picture comes out of better races overseas and is conditioned by one of the best trainers around. Legend Andre Fabre legs up Flavien Prat. Bright Picture will be a handful if he brings his “A” game.


Race 13: Belmont (G1)
Grade: B+
Use: 8 Emerging Market; Renegade/2 Powershift; 3 Chief Wallabee; 6 Growth Equity

Forecast: The Belmont may be at 1 1/4-miles, not the traditional 12-furlong distance at Big Sandy, but this race came up as good as one could have hoped. A lot of horses have shots to win or hit the board due to the depth of the group, but I thought #8 Emerging Market was my Belmont horse prior to the first weekend in May and see no reason to modify that opinion. He did not finish well at all in the Derby, but no one towards the front did. In terms of the Kentucky Derby, he had a clean trip, but there were multiple points in the race where the lightly-raced colt had to be used at some level. He was not close to good enough that day, but got incredible experience. The outside draw and smaller group at Saratoga is likely to lead to a much less stressful voyage. I am excited to go back to him in this year’s Belmont Stakes. If Emerging Market runs first or second with Renegade, it will be a fun time. If we can get #2 Powershift or #6 Growth Equity into the number, my neighbors will hear me.


Race 14:
Grade: C+
Use: 8 Elnajd

Forecast: The card concludes with this first-level allowance over the grass where I will try #8 Elnajd. The Shadwell Stable colt tries the green for the first time. He is bred on the bottom side to thrive routing over the lawn, has shown talent already, and has the right man in the saddle to make his first turf try a winning one.