Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 5-Liberty Forever; 7-Street Humor

Forecast: First-time gelding Liberty ForeverStreet Humor returns to turf after showing improvement in the speed figure department when third in a dirt sprint at Los Alamitos. This return to grass is warranted; the son of Street Boss was beaten less than a length when worn down late after cutting out the fractions over a mile at Del Mar in his racing debut. He’ll be in the fray throughout. We’ll try to get by using just these two in rolling exotic play, though a case could be made for a few others, including the two entrants who have a right to step forward based on the recent workouts that are listed below.

Notable Workouts:

Worse Read Sanchez (December 12, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:17.4h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Was used as a prompter for Hot Rod Charlie (7f, 1:28.4h) and did his job, breaking off a couple of lengths in front and then falling back in the final furlong (not asked), splits of :26.4, :39 flat, :51.1 and 1:17.4. Very slow time but didn’t look bad under the circumstances, probably has a bit of improvement in him with added experience.

Who’s Candy (December 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:16.3h). Grade: C+
View Workout Video
Went off slowly in solo six furlong drill that began at the five-eighths pole, coasted to the top, then was asked through the lane, and really didn’t offer much of a response, splits of :25.3, :37.4, 1:03.2 (to the wire) and then out in 1:16.3. Perhaps he’s not much of a worker; left at 43-1 in his debut and then outran his odds, finishing a reasonable runner-up in a turf sprint.


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RACE 2: Post: 12:32 PT Grade: X
Single: 1-Queen of Thorns

Forecast: In a five-runner maiden special weight sprint for sophomore fillies, Queen of Thorns appears to have much in her favor. She was a hot item at the OBS April sale, where she recorded the fastest quarter mile clocking in the preview session (:20 3/5) after which she brought $300,000 through the ring, and more recently has done some very good work without being asked to show her natural speed for trainer P. Eurton. While it’s true that this stable’s lack of success with first-time starters is concerning, this daughter of Violence may prove the exception to the rule. Under F. Pat and at 8/5 on the morning line (and likely to go lower), she’s a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Queen of Thorns (December 13, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2hg). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Rather nice gate drill without ever being put to pressure while even but quicker than Kerouac (same time, broke slowly), splits of :24.2, :36 flat :48 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches. Lengthy, scopey filly certainly has ability, brought $300,00 at the OBS April sale where she previewed a quarter mile in a sizzling :20 3/5, fastest clocking in the sale.


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RACE 3: Post: 1:04 PT Grade: A-
Single: 4-Snuggler’s Run

Forecast: Here’s another hot-shot first-time starter that seems likely to win but should go off lower than his morning line of 8/5. Smuggler’s Run, from the first crop of the fast sprinter (and so far very successful stallion) Straight Fire, worked five furlongs from the gate by himself in a sizzling :58 4/5 last month and did it easily while breezing throughout and finishing with something left. With just six rivals, none of whom appear formidable on paper, the R. Alvarado-trained gelding seems like a highly-probably winner and short-priced, no value rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Smuggler’s Run (December 18, Santa Anita, 5f, :58.4hg). Grade: A-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, solo gate work for R. Alvarado (ex-P. Miller assistant) and was highly impressive, never asked while going easily early and then finishing strongly while strictly on his own, splits of :24.1, :35.3, :46.4 and :58.4 before coasting to the wire in 1:13.3. Straight Fire sophomore looks plenty fit, is a tall, strong, powerful gelding very much looks like a win-early type.


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RACE 4: Post: 1:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 2-Invincibella; 9-Tricky In

Forecast: Invincibella (TOC=6/5; ML-7/2), first off the claim by D. O’Neill for $25,000, is wheeled back at the same level in this six furlong turf sprint for older fillies and mares. A two-time winner over the local lawn, the English-bred mare is reunited with “win rider: F. Prat and with an extra furlong to work with today should be capable of wearing down the leaders close home. Trickle In (TOC=6-1; ML=3-1) is a “must use” as well in rolling exotic play. She’s not had a whole lot of success sprinting over the local lawn (four starts, once second) and always is suspect under pressure in the final furlong, but the daughter of Temple City seems likely to inherit the role as the controlling speed and if not pressured early could take this field a long way.


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RACE 5: Post: 2:05 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 6-Artabkeen; 7-Fort Bridger; 1-Mad Steven

Forecast: Let’s to with a fresh face in this maiden $40,000 sprint for 3-year-olds. The D. Hofmans-trained Artabkeen has done some decent work in the a.m. and acts like a gelding who might be able to finish a bit. In a field with suspect early speed, the son of Keen Ice might be able to produce a good enough late pick to get up in time at a nice price. Fort Bridger is another debut runner worth a close look. The son of Gio Ponti displayed pretty good zip in a recent gate work and could be dangerous if he can leave with his field and shake loose early. He’s also listed at 6-1 on the morning line and could easily be better than that. Mad Steve is the best of the known element and is the logical morning line favorite at 9/5. In the frame in his last pair and switching the F. Prat, the S. Miyadi-trained son of Boisterous must leave from the rail but if gets away clean he’ll have every chance while on or near the lead throughout.

Notable Workouts:

Artabkeen (December 19, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:15.4h). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
Showed a tad of ability in this team drill for D. Hofmans while much best over Baldoro (6f, 1:16.3h), very easily to the top and then was asked for run inside the furlong pole to leave his workmate behind, final half mile in :24.2 and :50.2,. not too bad. Eligible to surface in a soft maiden claimer and probably is worth a look.

Fort Bridger (December 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1hg). Grade: B-
View Workout Video
In blinkers, three horse gate drill outside Mashhad Flats (5f, 1:00.4hg) and Harddiane (4f, :48.4hg, stumbled start, last of the three) and showed pretty good speed to be slightly best over ‘Flats to the top (pretty much up there) before easing up and falling back, splits of :24.1, :35.3 and :47.3 on our watches, a quicker move than final time might indicate. Maiden claimer appears to have enough early speed to be a threat in a soft field.


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RACE 6: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference: 2-Bran; 1-Beer Can Man

Forecast: French invader Bran (TOC=10-1; ML=6-1 looks interesting in this year’s edition of the Joe Hernandez S/-G2 for older turf sprinters down the Hillside course. A good allowance performer in legitimate company in last year and most recently a respectable fourth in a listed event at Saint-Cloud in October, the J. Sadler-trained gelding has trained like he’s fit and ready for a big effort in his U.S. debut and based on his European form has the proper mid-pack, closing style to be very effective under these conditions. He’s 6-1 on the morning line and is worth a gamble at that price. Beer Can Man (TOC=7/5; ML=5/2), a winner of five of 10 career starts and fresh from career-top win in a fast overnight grass dash in early November, should draft into an ideal pace-prompting trip from his inside draw and have every chance to seal the deal close home. The newly-turned four-year-old continues to improve and with another forward move today should be hard to beat. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with the better-priced Bran preferred on top.

Notable Workouts:

Bran (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.1h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Broke off several lengths behind the P. D’Amato team of Phenom (5f, 1:00.4h TT) and Admiral Halsey (5f, 1:01h TT) and rallied along tight quarters inside in the final furlong to catch up and prove best (galloped out well, too) for J. Sadler, final three furlongs in :11.4 and :35.1, strong through the lane while appearing plenty fit. French turf sprinter looks good and may prove to be a better type here than there.

Delaware (December 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade: C+
Wanted to lean out a bit through the lane in solo half mile main track drill, final three furlongs in :36.3. Decent Middle distance performer from New York now in the P. Gallagher barn probably needs grass to his best stuff, would prefer to see one out here first.


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RACE 7: Post: 3:05 PT Grade: C+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Newgrange; 2-Oviatt Class

Forecast: The pace scenario in this year’s renewal of the Sham S.-G3 is a bit muddled because the two speeds, Newgrange (TOC=9/2; ML=2-1) and Rockefeller (TOC=3/5; ML=8/5, are stable mates in B. Baffert’s barn and aren’t likely to go at each other’s throats from the get-go. Will one be rated just off the pace, and if so, which one? Initially, we loved the way Newgrange broke his maiden at first asking but the form hasn’t held, so perhaps he’s not as good as we originally thought. But we have questions surrounding Rockefeller as well, namely, can he be effective around two turns? Then there’s the improving grass performer Mackinnon (TOC=4-1; ML=3-1), with rapidly rising speed figures in each of six career starts, but completely completely unproven on dirt. Finally, there’s Oviatt Class (TOC=11-1; ML=7/2), victimized by a pro-speed track in the American Pharoah S.-G1 when rallying too late to be third behind Corniche and then buried on the deep rail when unable to make an impact when winding up fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile-G1. The analytics don’t like him, but we do. In a race that we might be inclined to merely watch, we’ll give the edge to Newgrange every so slightly on top and also toss in Oviatt Class in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Mackinnon (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.2h TT). Grade A-
View Workout Video
Was rank and tried to run off after leaving the pole, finally settled somewhat into the turn, then finished with a ton left without being asked while much best over Exactly Wendy (5f, 1:01.4h TT), drawing clear with powerful strides and then galloping out full of run. Hard to say if he’ll love dirt (most turf horses work great on the training track) but it’s certainly worth finding out. Plenty of natural talent, for sure, would love to see him drop his head and switch off in the morning.

Rockefeller (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, :59.4h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Broke off slightly behind Bronn (5f, 1:00.1h) and was ridden through the lane to eventually draw clear by a length approaching the wire before continuing out a full six furlongs on our watches to the seven-furlong pole, splits of :23.4, :35.3, :59.4 and 1:13.1. Not flashy but solid, was a graded stakes winner at a (one turn) mile in New York last time out, not really sure if he’ll improve around two turns.


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RACE 8: Post: 3:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Luck; 2-Mucho Unusual

Forecast: Luck (TOC=7/5; ML=8/5) ran huge when narrowly missing in the Rodeo Drive S.-G1 over the local lawn during the fall meeting but then couldn’t quite seal the deal when missing by a head at 30 cents on the dollar in the Red Carpet H.-G3 at Del Mar in late November. She continues to shine in the morning, so we’ll give the R., Baltas-trained mare a chance to make amends in this year’s edition of the Robert J. Frankel S.-G3 over nine furlongs. The lightly-raced 5-year-old daughter of Kitten’s Joy retains F. Prat, and although the pace projection seems a bit soft and could compromise her late kick, we’re still expecting her to be along in time. Mucho Unusual (TOC=9/5; ML=5/2) is the one to fear most. She’s more tactical than Luck and in a race that could be run at a crawl in the early stages the veteran 6-year-old can be on the front end or in an equally comfortable stalking position. A six-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the T. Yakteen-trained mare picks up red-hot Johnny V., who was aboard her when she won this same race last year.

Notable Workouts:

Mucho Unusual (December 17, Santa Anita, 6f, 1:15h). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Settled behind Big Flame (same time) and finished about a half length back at the wire but was never asked while closing the gap in the final stages, final quarter mile in :25.2. Holds her form, obviously much more comfortable on grass.

Luck (December 19, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.1h TT). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Smooth as silk in solo training track drill for R. Baltas, never asked, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :35.3. Lost a couple of toughies but maintains her edge and can bounce back.


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RACE 9: Post: 4:05 PT Grade: B
Use (In order of preference): 6-As Time Goes By; 5-Park Avenue

Forecast: As Time Goes By (TOC=2/5; ML=8/5) is fresh from a game win in the Bayakoa S.-G3 at Del Mar in early December in what should serve as a confidence-building performance after getting chewed up stalking a suicidal pace in the Breeders’ Cup Distaff-G1 the previous month. A recent breezing workout – she couldn’t have looked sharper – indicates the B. Baffert-trained mare is ready for another top effort over a main track that she’s won three races and been three times second in six career outings. She’s most effective as the controlling speed but from her outside draw likely will employ stalk-and-pounce tactics that she can employ if the race shape dictates. The analytics are making it a one-horse race, but we’re inclined to include the rapidly-improving Park Avenue (TOC=12-1; ML=3-1) as well. She was in the parking lot every step of the way yet still managed to crush a first-level allowance field by five lengths (actual value at least twice that much, maybe more) at Los Alamitos last month, and while this task is significantly more difficult the daughter of Quality Road may be a lot better filly than given credit for by the analytics.

Notable Workouts:

Park Avenue (December 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B+
View Workout Video
Just coasting in easy solo half mile breeze, final quarter in :24 flat, quite sharp. Gets tested for class in the La Canada S. after demolishing entry-level allowance competition at Los Alamitos.

As Time Goes By (December 21, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.4h). Grade B+
View Workout Video
Sharp as a tack while finishing a length clear of Beautiful Gift (4f, :49h) at the wire, breezing through the lane, never asked at any stage, :24 flat and :48.3 on our watches. Maintains her form.


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RACE 10: Post: 4:35 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 4-Aligato; 2-Brix; 7-Riding With Dino

Forecast: Aligato (TOC=5/2; ML=7/2) was a late scratch last Monday when his mile turf race was switched to the main track on late notice, so he’s back in the entries today in a six furlong turf sprint that looks right up his alley. The Kitten’s Joy gelding was unlucky when a troubled third (beaten a half-length) at this level over five furlongs on grass at Del Mar I mid-November and today, with an extra furlong to work with, the late-running five-year-old looks capable of tagging the speed with good racing luck. Brix (TOC=7-1; ML=4-1) also was victimized by poor luck when third, beaten less than two lengths, in a sprint over this course and distance last time out during the fall season. A prototype late-running turf sprinter, the R. Baltas-trained son of Twirling Candy is just 2-for-17 (with a combined eight seconds and thirds), so he’s hardly one to trust but we’re expecting the veteran gelding to make some noise from the quarter pole home. Riding With Dino (TOC=6-1; ML=4-1), in the money in his last eight starts, projects as a dangerous pace stalker/presser, and with the switch to F. Prat looks like a major player every step of the way. A close second in the same race Aligato exits, the son of Vronsky can be counted on to fire another big shot.

Notable Workouts:

Aligato (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.2h TT). Grade: B
View Workout Video
Some coaxing late but did well enough in solo training track drill for M. Glatt, splits of :24.2, :36.1 and 1:00.2, solid move while maintaining his form. Should route but has proven to be quite effective as a late-running turf sprinter.


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