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Jeremy Plonk: Kentucky Derby Future Wager Analysis

by Jeremy Plonk

January 21, 2022


Pool 2 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager will be offered Friday through Sunday and you can bet it with Xpressbet and 1/ST BET. It’s a chance to look ahead and lock in your odds at the end of this weekend for the first Saturday in May. There’s a long way to go on the trail, and remember only a few horses each year wind up in single-digit odds in the actual Derby – so shop for big prices if playing now.

#1 Chasing Time // 20-1 ML
The ‘now’ horse after smashing mile allowance win at Oaklawn on Jan. 14.

#2 Classic Causeway // 30-1 ML
Flashed brilliance at 2, pedigree for more and working steady. Very playable at 30-1.

#3 Commandperformance // 50-1 ML
Maiden has not worked since Breeders’ Cup Juvenile fourth.

#4 Courvoisier // 30-1 ML
Son of Tapit-Take Charge Brandi appears classier than what we’re used to seeing in NY winter.

#5 Dash Attack // 20-1 ML
2-2 in Oaklawn miles, but pedigree for classic distances may lean shorter.

#6 Emmanuel // 50-1 ML
Interesting longshot now at big odds is back working after missing allowance start at Tampa.

#7 Epicenter // 15-1 ML
Competes as likely favorite or second choice in Saturday’s Lecomte; likely lacks value for KDFW.

#8 Giant Game // 30-1 ML
Talented sort working bullets at Gulfstream for return; one that interests for futures.

#9 High Oak // 50-1 ML
Summer flash got back to work in late December, but how far will he go?

#10 Jack Christopher // 10-1 ML
Eye-popping around 1 turn at 2, but recovering from surgery and behind the calendar. Distance?

#11 Major General // 50-1 ML
Two workouts back from layoff, and I like what we saw from him at 2. Price is right.

#12 Make It Big // 50-1 ML
Unbeaten 3-3 colt got 2-turn experience in Remington’s Springboard Mile; how will he fit back at GP?

#13 Mo Donegal // 12-1 ML
Remsen winner got better with distance last year; too short of a price for now if near ML, however.

#14 Pappcap // 20-1 ML
Like Epicenter, competes as likely favorite or second choice in Saturday’s Lecomte; likely lacks value for KDFW.

#15 Rattle N Roll // 30-1 ML
As talented as we saw last year, but on the shelf since Keeneland. If price balloons, maybe worth a shot.

#16 Simplification // 30-1 ML
Everything around 1 turn so far and tough to envision him getting 1-1/4 miles with his style.

#17 Slow Down Andy // 15-1 ML
Solid-enough west coaster would need to be at least twice the ML price to consider betting right now.

#18 Smile Happy / 8-1 ML
Tops on my list of Derby contenders, but nobody should take 8-1 at this point.

#19 Tiz the Bomb // 20-1 ML
Turf ace has been out-working Smile Happy of late in mornings; if price drifts up, you could do worse.

#20 Trafalgar // 50-1 ML
Note likely on this list if not in Lecomte on Saturday, and a good effort there makes him underlay. Pass.

#21 Varatti // 50-1 ML
Only 1 work back since September debut win and layoff; plenty of pedigree for Pletcher.

#22 White Abbario // 50-1 ML
Similar to stablemate Make It Big in form and outlook; seems a stretch, but price will be huge.

#23 Zandon // 12-1 ML
Remsen runner-up is Chad Brown’s best shot at this point and working well; price has to rise to intrigue.

#24 All Other 3-Year-Olds // 7-5 ML
Can’t argue with 7-5 on the lot that includes anything Baffert-touched at this point. I prefer bigger swings, but can see how this suits some.