Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TOC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 2-Aventapp; 3-Beautiful Temple

Forecast: Older maiden claiming fillies and mares compete on grass over six and one-half furlongs in the Friday opener. Aventapp finished a solid third at this level over the local lawn during the fall season and returns after a two month vacation as the 2-1 morning line favorite. She’s earned speed figures that are good enough to handle this below average field, though this extended sprint distance could make things difficult close home. Beautiful Temple makes the all-important class drop from straight maiden to maiden claiming in her first outing since August and appears to be realistically spotted for an underrated outfit. A strong runner-up try over this course last summer charts very well against this group and the work tab should have her fit enough for a major effort. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with a very slight edge on top to Aventapp.


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RACE 2: Post: 1:02 PT Grade: X
Use (in order of preference): 3-Sauls Call; 4-Tizlightning

Forecast: Trainer S. Miyadi holds the aces with the two logical top choices in a five-runner field, but both are being dangled, not a healthy sign. Sauls Call crushed a similar $32,000 claiming field at Los Alamitos in early December and returns for that same tag today. It’s apparent the connections aren’t worried about losing him (maybe they want to), but that doesn’t mean he can’t win again. A recent solid workout (see below) is an encouraging sign that the Stay Thirsty gelding has at least one good one left. Tizlightning was the beneficiary of a questionable disqualification just seven days ago in a starter’s $50,000 optional claimer that produced a strong, career top speed figure, two points better in fact that what Sauls Call was assigned in his most recent victory. The son of Stanford picks up F. Prat and should press the issue outside his stable mate every step of the way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play in a race that we’ll otherwise sit out.

Notable Workouts:

Sauls Call (January 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.3h TT). Grade: B
Finished with good energy without being asked in solo training track drill, final quarter mile in :24.3. Maintains his form.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Lookin At Sweetie; 4-Cat Lady Blues

Forecast: Lookin At Sweetie has been away since October of 2020 but she could easily be a better type this time around for new trainer R. Baltas in a bottom-rung maiden claimer that has very little depth to it. In light with bug boy D. Herrera aboard and with a decent gate work (see below) just six days ago, the daughter of Lookin At Lucky is a first-time Lasix user and should be expected to display good early speed from her rail post. Let’s put her on top at 3-1 on the morning line while also including on our ticket Cat Lady Blues, a second-time starter who encountered early trouble in her debut at Los Alamitos in a similar affair. Despite finishing sixth (beaten five lengths), she earned a speed figure that is six points better than par for this level, so with a clean start today, she should be the one to beat.

Notable Workouts:

Lookin At Sweetie (January 15, Santa Anita, 4f, :48hg). Grade: B-
In blinkers, a full second slower than given but did okay without being asked much while a length best over Lovely Lola (4f, :48.1hg), splits of :24.3, :36.3 and :49 flat, steady move, not bad for a bottom-rung maiden claimer. Been away since the fall of 2020 but is coming back in decent shape for new trainer R. Baltas and could be competitive in a real soft spot.
View Workout Video


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RACE 4: Post: 2:04 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 1-Ultimate Bango; 3-Southern Horse; 6-Nero

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this $40,000 turf sprint for older horses while slightly preferring the class-dropping Ultimate Bango on top. The veteran gelding had severe traffic trouble when unplaced in a recent $80,00 optional claimer over this turf course 19 days ago and should be given another chance, especially with the switch to F. Prat and a good inside draw. First or second in seven of 13 career starts over the Santa Anita grass course, the M. Glatt-trained gelding projects to settle behind the leaders while saving ground and then have his chance from the quarter pole home. Trainer J. Sadler has two legitimate contenders, although both are returning off layoffs. Southern Horse shows a solid, healthy series of workouts since finishing a troubled fourth in a $32,000 seller over a distance of ground last September at Del Mar. While we suspect he’s more comfortable two-turning, the ex-classer from Argentine by way of Ireland will be rolling late and with some help up front could make some serious noise in the final stages. Stable mate Nero, off since August of 2020, has been burning up the Los Alamitos main track while preparing for his comeback for a barn that has superb stats (24%) with layoff runners. This will be his first start on grass, so if the veteran son of Pioneerof the Nile takes to the lawn and reproduces some of his old form he could offer some good price value at 5-1 on the morning line.

Notable Workouts:

Fore Left (January 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.1h). Grade: B-
Slow final time but was just galloping without being asked, final half mile in :25.1 and :50 flat for D. O’Neill. Can improve with a class drop.
View Workout Video

Southern Horse (January 16, Santa Anita, 4f, :47hg). Grade: B
Solo gate drill for J. Sadler, was hustled along most of the way and did nicely with splits of :23.3, :35 flat and :47 flat while being sharpened up for his first start since early September. Might prefer two-turns and is often sloppy on his lead changes but seems to be returning in good shape.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 2:35 PT Grade: X
Single: 3-Vetoed

Forecast: Vetoed is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite in this maiden $50,000 main track miler for older horses and probably will go lower. There just doesn’t appear any alternative to the B. Baffert-trained gelding, who failed to beat a horse vs. straight maidens when last seen in late November at Del Mar. However, he’s looked okay in the morning since, so we’re expecting the son of Bayern to bounce back with an effort that should be more than good enough to handle this modest assignment. You can make him a short-priced, no value rolling exotic single or simply leave the race alone.

Notable Workouts:

Vetoed (January 14, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.4h). Grade: B-
Breezing inside Triple Tap (same time, hard held) for B. Baffert, splits of :24.2 and :50.2, just galloping along. Now five-years-old so he’s most likely headed to the maiden claiming ranks. Probably can find his friends at that level.
View Workout Video


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RACE 6: Post: 3:06 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference: 2-Tony Ann; 4-Pulpit Rider

Forecast: Tony Ann is a late-developing daughter of Cairo Princess seeking her third straight win, and in a race that came up surprisingly shallow the P. D’Amato-trained filly looks pretty solid at 2-1 on the morning line. She’s certainly quick enough to make the running and if handed an easy early lead there’s a good chance she’ll never look back. Pulpit Rider is a seven-time career winner but just 1-for-14 over the Santa Anita turf course. She’ll be running on late, but at this nine furlong distance with a projected creepy-crawler pace to overcome her task will be challenging. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics with the main punch going to Tony Ann.

Notable Workouts:

Beautiful Gift (January 12, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.2hg). Grade: C+
Hustled most of the way inside Best Actor (same time) while slightly second best along the inside with splits of :24.3, :36.3, :48.4 and 1:02 flat on our watches, fair to moderate at best for B. Baffert. Been away since last May and has been training like she may need one.
View Workout Video

Tony Ann (January 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :50.2h TT). Grade: B-

In blinkers, mostly on her own in training track drill for P. D’Amato, final three furlongs in :12.2 and :37.1. Just a maintenance move, saves her best stuff for the afternoon.
View Workout Video

Carpe Vinum (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.2h TT). Grade: C+

In blinkers, inside Badger Kitten (5f, 1:03.1h TT) and was slightly second best, ridden some through the lane while workmate was breezing, final three furlongs in :12.2 and :37.4. Just a so-so move, been away since April and may need more work.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 3:38 PT Grade: B+
Use (in order of preference): 3-Armagnac; 1-Piroli

Forecast: This maiden race for sophomores drew just five entrants, two of which hail from the B. Baffert barn. Armagnac was given a race sprinting in his debut last month and got plenty out of it after finishing a distant third without being knocked about. With the switch to Johnny V., a stretch-out in trip, and the addition of Lasix, the well-regarded son of Quality Road seems certain to step forward in a big way. A sharp recent workout (see below) is significant. Piroli has a similar pattern – a nice sprint prep for educational purposes followed by a good, sharp workout coupled with the sprint-to-route angle – so we suggest you find room on your ticket for this son of Battle of Midway. He gets Lasix and the rail while retaining J. Hernandez after being given the once-around behind Doppelhanger in a fast maiden sprint at Los Alamitos last month. Today she’ll find out what he can do.

Notable Workouts:

Piroli (January 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2hg). Grade: B+

In blinkers, best in gate drill with Chloe’s Girl (4f, :49.1hg, half-length behind when eased up) for M. McCarthy, splits of :24.1, :35.4, :47.4 and 1:00 flat, considerably quicker than given. Finished with something left after not being asked early and then was mildly asked in the closing stages before coasting to the wire in 1:13.3. Was given a run sprinting in his debut and should improve a bunch with experience and distance.
View Workout Video

Armagnac (January 15, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.1hg). Grade: B+

Strong gate work for Baffert while much best over Patrolman (4f, :47.4hg), splits of :24 flat, :35.2 and :47.1, mildly ridden throughout while finishing strongly and with something left. Very good prospect, had a run sprinting in his debut and seems certain to improve over a distance of ground.
View Workout Video

Kerouac (January 15, Santa Anita, 4f, :47.3hg). Grade: BB-

In blinkers, second best in gate drill with maiden debut winner Droppelganger (5f, :59.4hg), gradually losing ground despite being ridden along, splits of :24.1 and :47.4 on our watches. Would have to consider him a down the road type at this stage.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 4:10 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 1-Badger Kitten; 2-Pistachio Princess

Forecast: The main contenders are drawn favorably inside in today’s nightcap, a restricted (nw-2) $25,000 turf miler for fillies and mares. Badger Kitten, fourth in a tougher $50,000 affair two weeks ago, should go much better at this level while making a major jockey switch to F. Prat. From the rail, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip. She’ll have her chance from the top of the lane to the wire. Pistachio Princess does her best work on the lead, but the possibility exists that other speed types will force her to spend early energy. Freshened since late November and with a good, healthy series of recent drills, the daughter of Vronsky could be tough to catch if sprinter-stretching-out Keep Your Coil doesn’t keep her company during the early stages (Cheerful Charm may show speed as well). She’s faster on pure numbers than our top pick, so you have to use her.

Notable Workouts:

Badger Kitten (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:03.1h TT). Grade: B-
Under a tight hold (workmate asked a bit) while even but best outside Carpe Vinum (5f, 1:03.2h TT), splits of :12.2 and :37.3, plenty left in easy breeze. Looks okay, dangerous with a class drop.
View Workout Video


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