Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, Workout Commentary, and True Odds Calculations (“TPC”) identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The “TOC” quantifies the findings of a personal thoroughbred analytics program that contains in its database the results of every race contested at Santa Anita since 2004. More than 75 critical factors in the fields of class, distance, surface, age, and sex have created 227 individual
algorithms that are highly specific to the race being handicapped. The result is a probability line that reflects each contender’s true odds based on a pure 100 point takeout.

The “TOC” applies its mathematical formula only to non-maiden races and displays a maximum of four runners considered the most likely contenders to win. Also listed is the specific algorithm’s sample size plus the top-rated horse’s win percentage and return on investment (ROI). It is suggested that the player utilize the program’s findings to compare each contender’s “true odds” with the morning line and/or actual wagering odds to identify potential overlays and underlays.

Also-eligible runners are not included in any of the calculations until verified as actual starters. When possible, adjustments to the “TOC” will be updated after late scratches.

For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play

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RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 7-Houndstooth; 3-Cali Bay

Forecast: It’s about time Houndstooth made it to the races. Originally a $500,000 Keeneland yearling purchase and now five years old, the son of Uncle Mo has looked the part in morning workouts for trainer R. Mandella and makes his debut in a maiden special weight turf sprint in which none of the other entrants have achieved a Beyer speed figure equal or better to the 80 that is par for this level. A strong gelding with plenty of scope, he lands Johnny V. and a comfortable outside draw and therefore should have clear sailing and every chance to win at first asking at 3-1 on the morning line. The barn’s record (18%) with first-time starters is statistically better than average, so there should be no excuses. Cali Bay is the morning line favorite (2-1) and strictly the one to beat after finishing second in both of his previous grass sprints over the local lawn. He’s decidedly one-paced but should be within range to the head of the lane and then have the opportunity to grind it out. These are the two we’ll go with in our rolling exotic play with preference on top to Houndstooth.

Notable Workouts:

Houndstooth (December 20, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B+
Caught him in a gate drill last month with Laforgia and Lasso Special (4f, :47.4hg) and was best along the inside without ever really being asked for much, a little sluggish leaving the gate but then getting in gear to prove clearly best with splits of :23.4, :35.2, :47.2 and 1:00 flat before coasting to the wire in 1:14.4. Strong gelding with plenty of scope is a son of Uncle Mo that brought $500,000 as a yearling but has yet to start at age five. Appears to have plenty of ability but clearly has had physical issues.
View Workout Video


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RACE 2: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 5-Dream Princess

Forecast: Dream Princess (TOC=7/2; ML=9/5) was claimed for $100,000 last April at Oaklawn Park and finally makes his back to the races for new trainer J. Sadler in a five-runner starter’s allowance main track miler that seems likely to be well within her capabilities. The work tab should have her fit enough, and with the barn’s “go-to” rider J. Hernandez taking the call, she projects to enjoy a trouble-free, second flight trip and then have her chance to go on by when ready. While the analytics don’t view her as a slam dunk, each of the other starters show negative factors in their chart, so let’s take a stand and make the daughter of Bodemeister a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 9/5.

Notable Workouts:

Dream Princess (January 8, 5f, 1:01.3hg). Grade: B-
In blinkers, solo gate work for J. Sadler and did okay without ever really being asked much, splits of :24.3, :36.1, :48.1 and 1:01.1 on our watches before galloping out six furlongs in 1:15 flat. Was claimed for $100,000 last spring at Oaklawn Park and has been off the track since but seems to be coming in decent shape. Definitely not a speed type; certainly most comfortable around two turns and has starter allowance conditions.
View Workout Video


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RACE 3: Post: 1:34 PT Grade: X
Single: 5-Translate

Forecast: Translate (TOC=Evens; ML=4/5) returns from New York with form good enough to handle this starter’s allowance turf sprint field of fillies and mares. The R. Falcone, Jr.-trained mare removes blinkers for her first start since August, and with winning form over this course and distance last year the daughter of Tonalist should be able to settle off her three rivals and then produce a sufficient kick from the quarter pole home. There’s no wagering value to be found at 4/5 on the morning line, so we can make her short-priced rolling exotic single but otherwise pass the race.


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RACE 4: Post: 2:06 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference: 6-Coloratura; 1-Ice Cold Gold

Forecast: We’ll go two-deep in this modest $50,000 maiden claiming main track miler for 3-year-old fillies. Coloratura (TOC=2-1; ML=5/2) has been chasing infinitely tougher straight maidens and should improve a bunch with this class drop and the stretch out in trip. She shows the always-popular blinkers off angle as well, so in a race that projects to be slowly run early, the daughter of Daredevil should be on or near the lead throughout. Based on her sprint figures, she’s more than good enough to win. Ice Cold Gold (TOC=4-1; ML=2-1) is another maiden-to-maiden-claiming class dropper that is quite likely to improve in this league. Unplaced in two starts in Florida, the daughter of Frosted gets in light, lands the good rail, and might wind up being the controlling speed depending what strategy is employed by the connections of Coloratura. She’s a first-time Lasix user with an okay work over the local main track, so in a weak field she’s a “must use” in rolling exotic play.

Notable Workouts:

Ice Cold Gold (January 16, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: C+
Picked her up a couple of lengths in front of Mo Them Down (same time) approaching the far turn but was second best late while continuing out to seven furlong pole, splits of :35.3 and :48.4, some late coaxing. Didn’t show a whole lot in a pair of starts in Florida; may do better on this circuit for new trainer P. D’Amato but needs maiden claimers.
View Workout Video

K P Krypton (January 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:01.2h TT). Grade: B-
In blinkers in solo training track drill for J. Mullins, final three furlongs in :12 flat and :37.1 under mild late handed encouragement in the closing stages. May have a bit of improvement in her but needs modest maiden claimers.
View Workout Video


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RACE 5: Post: 2:36 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Plum Sexy; 1-Red Panty Night

Forecast: Plum Sexy (TOC=3/2; ML=8/5) removes blinkers, takes a significant class drop, has a prior win over the local lawn and switches to F. Prat, so with those four positive angles in her chart we’ll put her on top in this modest restricted (nw-2) grass sprint for $25,000 claiming fillies and mares. Most effective when held up early and allowed to run late, she’s likely to get the patient ride she needs, so with back speed figures that are more than good enough to win she rates top billing at 8/5 on the morning line. Also worth including on your ticket is Red Panty Night, a recent maiden $20,000 claiming winner at Los Alamitos in gate-to-wire fashion. Similar front-running tactics surely will be employed from the rail, so if the daughter Verrazano can continue her improving pattern and handles the grass, she could take the field a long way. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Plum Sexy.


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RACE 6: Post: 3:09 PT Grade: X
Single: 4-Impossible Task

Forecast: Impossible Task (TOC=3/5; ML=6/5) returns to dirt and seems well-spotted to regain his winning form, though at 6/5 on the morning line he won’t be offering much in the way of wagering value. Most effective when on or near the lead throughout, the J. Sadler-trained gelding retains F. Prat and catches a field without much early speed signed on. A perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Liam’s Map is solid on speed figures and shows a nice recent breeze over the training track since raced. While probably too short to play in the win pool, he seems like a logical short-priced rolling exotic single.

Notable Workouts:

Impossible Task (January 12, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.1h). Grade: B-
Wanted to lean out just a bit but was under a hold while through the lane, final three furlongs in solo training track drill in :11.3 and :36 flat. Was a bit disappointing last time out but could bounce back with a return to the main track. Seeking another starter’s allowance event.
View Workout Video


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RACE 7: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B-
Use (in order of preference): 1-Chaos Theory; 4-Barraza

Forecast: This year’s renewal of the Clocker’s Corner S. is a tough nut to crack because the pace scenario is so muddled. In a race in which no logical front runner jumps off the page, the race could be controlled by any horse/jockey that takes the initiative leaving the gate. Chaos Theory (TOC=5/2; ML=3-1) is winless in four career starts over the local lawn, but he’s hit the board three times and could fire a big shot fresh after being overmatched and unplaced in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint at Del Mar in November. From the rail, he’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip and the winner of six races (from 19 starts) has plenty of back speed figures good enough to handle this assignment. In his present form, Barraza (TOC=9/5; ML=3-1) may be able to take another successful jump in class no matter what the race shape turns out to be (he once did win wire-to-wire, but that was in a route race). The V. Cerin-trained gelding earned a career top speed figure in the most recent of two local grass victories when producing a good late kick to defeat a second-level allowance field earlier this month. A similar effort today might be good enough. These are the two we’ll be using in rolling exotic play but if he you feel the need to spread deeper, go right ahead.

Notable Workouts:

Chaos Theory (January 14, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: B-
In blinkers, breezing early, mild late coaxing, splits of :25.1, :37 flat and 1:02.3 in maintenance drill for R. Hess, Jr. Clearly prefers turf, seems in good enough shape and has room to improve recent efforts.
View Workout Video

Vanzzy (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h TT). Grade: C+
In blinkers, some late coaxing through the lane in solo training track drill while late changing leads. Away since September, invades from the East, would tend to want to see one first for new trainer R. Baltas.
View Workout Video


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RACE 8: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: C
Use (in order of preference): 8-Bletchley Park; 4-Happy Runner

Forecast: This is an inscrutable maiden special weight sprint for 3-year-olds. Trainer B. Baffert has three of the eight entrants and surely one of them could win but quite frankly none of the three have done anything particularly noteworthy in the morning. Bletchley Park was purchased for $2.6 million at the 2021 Fasig-Tipton March sale, where he smoked a furlong in 9 4/5 seconds during the preview session, but the son of Nyquist hasn’t really shown that type of ability in his recent morning trials leading up to his debut. He must be considered a major player by default, but we’ve been more impressed by several other young prospects from the same stable. Happy Runner exits a maiden $50,000 claimer but he was nine lengths clear of the rest in that race at Los Alamitos. He’s a first-time Lasix user for M. McCarthy and will be dangerous unless at least one of the hot-shot first-timers runs better than expected. We’ll use both in rolling exotic play without any degree of confidence; best advice is to spread as deeply as your budget allows.

Notable Workouts:

Sense of Dominance (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B
In blinkers, may have been going a tad the easier while stride-for-stride in team gate drill with Bletchley Park (same time), both under some coaxing with splits of :23.3 :35 flat, :47 flat and 1:00 flat (pair galloped to the wire in 1:14.4) for Baffert. Had a run in November at Del Mar and really didn’t show a whole lot while racing greenly from the rail. Workmate was a $2.6 million purchase in the March 2-year-old in training sale in Florida but appears to have a ways to go at this stage. Was ridden pretty good in this work but was always slightly second best.
View Workout Video

Midnight Fury (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B-
(See commentary with Happy Jack, below)
View Workout Video

Classic Mark (January 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :48.2hg). Grade: B-
(See commentary with Beautiful Art, below).
View Workout Video

Happy Jack (January 8, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00.1hg). Grade: B-
Was ridden along while last of three early in a team gate drill with Midnight Fury (5f, 1:00.1hg) and Troubadour (4f, :48.1hg) but then cut the corner and finished okay to be head-and-head with ‘Fury at the furlong pole before continuing out a full six furlongs in 1:13.2, on our watches. Never changed leads but seemed have something left at the wire. Strikes us as a route type, certainly not a quick sort. ‘Fury had the most early speed and was never really asked much while earning splits of :24.1, :36 flat, :48 flat and 1:00.3 on our watches but was very late changing leads and was caught late by Happy Jack. Was a solid runner-up behind Droppelganger at Los Alamitos last month; seems about the same.
View Workout Video

Beautiful Art (January 9, Santa Anita, 4f, :482hg). Grade: B-
Went a full second faster than official clocking in team gate drill with Classic Mark (same time) for S. Callaghan, both in blinkers and shadow roll, splits of :24 flat, :35.2 and :47.2 with ‘Art stalking early and then taking a slight lead late, never really asked much while ‘Mark was asked a bit late. Son of Klimt appears to have some talent, was $310,000 OBS March sale purchase (breezed in :10 flat). Workmate went okay, had a bit of speed, may want to see one first.
View Workout Video

Bletchley Park (January 15, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:00hg). Grade: B-
(See commentary with Sense of Dominance, above).
View Workout Video


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RACE 9: Post: 4:45 PT Grade: B
Use (in order of preference): 3-Mo Them Down; 6-Lookout Point

Forecast: Mo Them Down has been showing speed and fading in straight maiden races but today takes a significant class drop to the maiden $50,000 ranks and adds Lasix, so we’re expecting considerable improvement from the son of Mohaymen. With the switch to grass and the stretch out in trip following a nice recent workout (see below), the P. D’Amato-trained colt might appreciate being taken back early and allowed to run late. Lookout Point, fifth but beaten less than a length in a similar affair, is worth tossing in as a back-up. He’ll be doing his best work late.

Mo Them Down (January 16, Santa Anita, 5f, 1:02.3h). Grade: B
In blinkers, picked him up two lengths behind Ice Cold Gold (same time) for P. D’Amato and looked good while proving clearly best down the lane and then out to the seven furlong pole, late changing leads but coming home with plenty left with splits of :35.3 and :48.2 while breezing along (may have gone faster than official final time). Displayed some early speed before fading in a pair of starts when facing straight maidens; might improve with a class drop and a change to waiting tactics.
View Workout Video



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