(For additional commentary, follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing).

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SARATOGA SPOTLIGHT RACES:

Second Race – Post: 1:39 ET
Top Pick: 9-Forever Dixie (12-1)

Here’s a 12-1 morning line long shot worth considering in the win pool and in the various rolling exotics. This rangy daughter of Quality Road had a bit of a rough go sprinting on dirt last month in her debut at Churchill Downs when chasing home subsequent Adirondack Stakes winner Naughty Girl but has trained very well since arriving at the Spa and we expect a major forward move with the stretch out in trip and the switch to grass. She should have enough tactical speed to get over and secure a cozy stalking trip and then have every chance from there. Also worth a close look at a big price is the first timer 6-Shesjustanicegirl, a daughter of the red hot freshman stallion Justify. She breezed quite well last week (see below), and is bred for turf on both sides of her pedigree. We’d be somewhat surprised if she isn’t a whole lot better than her 12-1 morning line gives her credit for.


Sixth Race: Post: 3:55 ET
Top Pick: 4-Upper Case (9/2)

This is a loaded maiden juvenile filly sprint with several exciting prospects among the 10 likely starters. Our top selection is a daughter of American Pharoah with a series of excellent workouts leading up to her well-anticipated debut. She appears to have a ton of quality and a load of early speed, so we’re expecting a huge performance, even though trainer Bill Mott isn’t known for cranking up his young stock right out of the box. We’ll dive in at anywhere close to her morning line of 9/2. 6-Twin Mischief is another that has been impressive in her morning drills, and as a daughter of Into Mischief she truly could be any kind. Maidens from this barn haven’t quite run to their works or purchase prices at this meeting but this filly appears ready for a major effort despite what looks to be an average series of drills. 10-Firing Bullets certainly fired one at the OBS April sale when she sizzled a furlong in :09 4/5 seconds during the preview sessions. Her local drills have been very quick, as well. From her outside draw, she’s almost certain to pop and go, and if she can outrun Upper Case early she may never look back.

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SARATOA RECOMMENDED ROLLING EXOTIC STRATEGIES:

(Races 1-5)
1st race: 6-M. C. Double R ; Deccan Prince; 10-Three Zero; 8-Rock Chalk
2nd race: 9-Forever Dixie; 6-Shesjustanicegirl; 8-Moma; 1-Root Cause
3rd race: 4-Big Q
4th race: 2-Cost Basis 7-Fire Sword
5th race: 8-Sixth Street; 2-Mrs. Green; 5-Linear Thinking

(Races 6-10)
6th race: 4-Upper Case; 6-Twin Mischief; 10-Firing Bullets
7th race: 6-Out of Sight; 2-Home for Christmas; 8-My Lips Are Sealed; 4-Palace Gossip
8th race: 5-Brattle House; 4-Betsy Blue; 6-Sweet Willemina
9th race: 2-Big Invasion
10th race: 3-Reckless Spirit; 2-Brazillionaire; 9-Seaver

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SARATOGA WORKOUT ANALYSIS AND COMMENTARY:


SECOND RACE:

Shesjustanicegirl (August 7, Saratoga, 4f, :48.3b TT). Grade: B
Did well inside Intent (same time) without really being asked, final quarter mile in :24.1, stride-for-stride throughout and galloping out nicely. Bred to run long on turf and gets her chance right off the bat. There’s nothing flashy on the work tab but this good-sized filly appears to have some scope and quality.
View Workout Video

Conseillante (July 22, Saratoga, 4f, :49.3b TT TC DU). Grade: C+
A little late changing leads and was slightly second best under light coaxing in training track turf drill outside Free Look (same time) for C. Brown, fair to moderate under the circumstances. Quality Road filly isn’t a speed type, probably wants a distance of ground.
View Workout Video

Moma (August 7, Saratoga, 4f, :48.1bg). Grade: B-
Not really asked much but was second best from gate inside Rosies Alibi (same time) for T. Pletcher, leading early but then losing a bit of ground towards the latter stages of the drill, a half-length back when eased up. Had outworked ‘Alibi on turf in her previous drill, so perhaps she’s more comfortable on the lawn. Daughter of Uncle Mo may want to be held up early and produced late.
View Workout Video

Forever Dixie (July 31, Saratoga, 4f, :48.1b). Grade: B
Lengthy Quality Road filly with plenty of scope breezed outside Conman (same time) and did nicely without ever being permitted to show her speed, finishing under wraps while coming the final quarter mile in :25 flat. Had a run at Churchill Downs sprinting on dirt in a tough maiden heat and did okay despite breaking slowly and racing greenly. Certainly can improve with distance and experience.
View Workout Video


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FIFTH RACE:

Linear Thinking (July 15, Saratoga, 5f, 1:04.1b TT TC DU). Grade: B-
Caught her last month in team drill around dogs on training track turf course, led early while pulling hard and appearing rank, final settled somewhere in the stretch and finished stride-for-stride with Lisa’s Vision (same time) for J. Abreu while preparing for first start since November of 2020, when she finished third in her debut over a distance of ground. Perhaps will be more comfortable sprinting this time around. There’s some talent to work with.
View Workout Video

Sixth Street (August 5, 4f, :47.4b TT TC DU). Grade: A-
In blinkers, extremely sharp in half mile training track breeze around dogs for B. Walsh, final quarter mile in :23.3, a length best over Flirting Bridge (same time) while scooting through the lane under a tight hold, full of run. Finished unplaced two turning in her U.S. debut last month but should go much better with the hood on when shortened to a maiden sprint.
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Parents Pride (July 31, 4f, :49.1b TC DU). Grade: C+
Led Republique (4f, 4f, :49b TC DU) early but was green through the lane on the inside and was passed by her workmate in the final stages, winding up about a length back at the wire. Had some flashy workout times on her resume from the spring in Florida and definitely has ability, perhaps she just wants to be let roll.
View Workout Video


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SIXTH RACE:

Interpolate (July 31, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1bg). Grade: B-
In company from gate outside (Vertical Vision, worked under dam’s name) (same time), and was stride-for-stride throughout under mild coaxing for C. Brown. Fair to moderate under the circumstances, let’s see one first.
View Workout Video

Upper Case (August 7, Saratoga, 4f, :48.2b). Grade: A-
Broke off a couple of lengths in front of Padma (4f, :48.1b) and was under stout restraint throughout while winding up a half-length in front at the wire (margin could have been much greater), a ton left, quite impressive for W. Mott. Daughter of American Pharoah has a very nice way of traveling and could be the goods. Much natural talent.
View Workout Video

Royal Poppy (August 6, Saratoga, 4f, :49.1b). Grade: B-
Never asked in easy breeze while stride-for-stride with Scootscoot (same time) for R. Mandal, both going easily. Hard to gauge but doesn’t look cranked up just yet.
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Twin Mischief (August 6, Saratoga, 5f, 1:02b TT). Grade: B+
Pretty mover was under wraps in team drill with Dixie Tap (5f, 1:02.2b) while drawing clear by a couple of lengths in the final furlong, plenty left. Hard to evaluate – workmate may not be all that much – but this was a promising move by the daughter of Into Mischief from the S. Asmussen barn. Seems plenty fit.
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Chocolate Gelato (August 7, Saratoga, 4f, :49b). Grade: B
May have been a tad second best outside Forte (same time) but was never asked while stride-for-stride with hard-held workmate, final quarter mile in a useful :24.3. Was beaten at odds-on in her debut last month, was hoping to see just a bit more in this drill.
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Firing Bullets (July 28, Saratoga, 4f, :47.3bg). Grade: B+
Broke in the air but quickly got in gear to display excellent speed under a hold, then was asked a bit after the opening quarter mile and quickened impressively to leave workmates Bernt Again and Cagney (both 5f, :50bg) far behind. Grey daughter of Firing Line appears blessed with plenty of gas, brought $210,000 at the OBS April sale, where she previewed in :09 4/5, equaling the fastest clocking of the session.
View Workout Video


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EIGHTH RACE:

Brattle House (August 5, Saratoga, 4f, :47.4b TT). Grade: B+
Well off the rail in easy training track breeze for W. Mott, never asked, final quarter mile in :24.2. Freshened since mid-June, looks real good, ready for another big effort after winning here last two starts by a combined 13 lengths.
View Workout Video


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