The Lead:
The final Grade 1 stakes of the Keeneland Fall Meet is a traditional 3-year-old filly showcase on the turf. The Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup will be Race 9 of 10 and wrap up the day's Keeneland Turf Pick 3 (joining Races 5 and 7). With leading sophomore grass runner Spendarella on the sidelines, divisional bragging rights are set to transfer.

​Field Depth:
McKULICK is the field's lone Grade 1 winner, heading a trio of Grade 2 winners in BELLABEL, CALIFORNIA ANGEL and NEW YEAR'S EVE. There's not a big strength of schedule difference between that quartet.

Pace:
It takes some creativity to envision this set-up. None of the 7 entrants are pure front-runners, though the Irish invader PARIS PEACOCK showed some foot abroad and jockey Florent Geroux is known to be aggressive early. But I see the McKULICK stablemate GINA ROMANTICA being sent to the front. She had pressing speed on dirt earlier in the year and would be a good pace marker for the more ballyhooed favorite. This race looks capable of being stolen up front.

Our Eyes:
Trainer Chad Brown has won this race 3 of the last 4 years, so his duo of McKULICK and GINA ROMANTICA have to be the focus. No dispute that McKULICK has more credentials, following victories in the Belmont and Jockey Club Oaks and runners-up in the Edgewood and Regret at Churchill as well as the Saratoga Oaks. The McKULICK record might indicate a preference for races longer than the QE's 9 furlongs. She's 2-2 at 1-1/4 miles plus and 1-5 at 1-1/8 miles or shorter. She's never run a bad race, so it's not a wild drop-off, but this might be a touch shorter than her best. I can see GINA ROMANTICA taking control of the pace like In Italian did in last week's First Lady for Chad Brown against more fancied barnmate Regal Glory and stealing the victory on the front-end.

The QE2 hasn't been kind to favorites, who have won 4 of the last 16. But note 11 of the last 12 winners were 5-1 or less. The last 8 winners have been only an average of a half-length lead off the lead after the first half-mile. Again, the trends say perhaps GINA ROMANTICA could be the fit over McKULICK.

Beyond the Brown pair, last year's rallying Jessamine winner CALIFORNIA ANGEL hasn't won since her signature Keeneland score. She's pace dependent and might not get the set-up, but her last at Kentucky Downs was a promising bid off the layoff. Also a deep closer, NEW YEAR'S EVE finished just behind CALIFORNIA ANGEL last time in the Dueling Grounds Oaks -- plus she's 1-and-2 vs. McKULICK in head-to-head matchups this year.

The fresh faces to this group are California's transported Irish filly BELLABEL and Irish-based PARIS PEACOCK. BELLABEL was no match for Spendarella in the Del Mar Oaks when second last out, but her wins in the Blue Norther and San Clemente since coming to Phil D'Amato's barn are promising. Over the last 16 years, NYRA preppers have won this race 8 times, but 4 have won via Del Mar on the long ship. PARIS PEACOCK took 8 tries to break her maiden, but did so at Gowran Park in August, then came back 5 weeks later to win an Irish Group 3. Both of her wins were at Saturday's 9-furlong distance.
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Most Certain Exotics Contender:
McKULICK is 7-7 in the trifecta and missed only 1 exacta.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
Perhaps she can go as high as fourth choice in this 7-filly field, making GINA ROMANTICA the right runner at the right price.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win GINA ROMANTICA. Layer on to that opinion with a $40 exacta GINA ROMANTICA over McKULICK.