Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s Daily Santa Anita Handicapping Analysis, Wagering Strategies, and Workout Commentary identify those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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Grade Descriptions:
Grade A=Highest degree of confidence
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred or pass
Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play


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RACE 1: Post: 12:00 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 4-Tea Tree Bay
Backups/savers: 2-Ancient Peace

Forecast: Irish invader Tea Tree Bay displayed promise in three all-weather events over the tight left-handed Dundalk track earlier this year, most recently in a runner-up effort behind the good filly Malleymoo, who subsequently finished second when probably best in the recent Wait A While Stakes at Gulfstream Park after walking out of the gate and then closing fastest of all before running out of ground. It is highly unlikely that there is anything as good as Malleymoo in this maiden grass miler, so if the Kristin Mulhall-trained English-bred filly reproduces her European form in her U.S. debut she should be hard to beat at 6-1 on the morning line. We’ll make her a solid win play and the major key in our early rolling exotics. For protection, you should consider another 6-1 morning line entrant, Ancient Peace. The barn has strong stats (23%) with the second time starter angle, and from her cozy inside draw the daughter of War Front is likely to display dangerous early speed with the addition of blinkers and a bullet half mile team drill last week (:48 flat, fastest of 25) when besting ninth race Blue Norther Stakes entrant G Laura.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:29 PT Grade: C+
Main ticket: (in order of preference): 2-Allaboutthemoney; 5-Settecento; 1-Salto de Tigre
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This restricted (nw-3) $20,000 claiming miler for older horses in a messy affair requiring considerable coverage in rolling exotic play. We’ll try to survive using three of the seven entrants while otherwise passing the race. Allaboutthemoney certainly isn’t one to trust, but he does have a prior win with three other runner-up efforts from seven starts over the local main track and shows numbers that are better than par for this level. Anything close to his best effort should be good enough. Settecento won a hard, taxing race at Los Alamitos just 13 days ago and is wheeled back on short rest while dropping below his claim level, so the possibility of a “bounce” is strong. On the plus side, he has numbers that fit, and he has won over the local main track in the past. Salto de Tigre is a one-paced grinder but is guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and should be running on late. He should at least get a piece of it.

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RACE 3: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Game Time; 5-Nagirroc
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: If this year’s edition of the Eddie Logan Stakes remains on turf (rain isn’t supposed to arrive until the following day), major player Speed Boat Beach could scratch, as trainer Bob Baffert is convinced the son of Bayern is much better on dirt (we agree). But without a viable alternative race, ‘Beach may stay in the field, and if he does, the projected race flow is certain to change. Interestingly, ‘Beach’s regular pilot Flavian Prat took off to ride Nagirroc under the assumption that ‘Beach wasn’t going to run. As of this writing, the decision hasn’t been made, and if does run, you have to use him. Game Time had to deal with ‘Beach every step of the way in the Cecil B. DeMille S.-G3 under similar conditions at Del Mar earlier this month, but if that colt is withdrawn the John Sadler-trained juvenile could inherit the role as the controlling speed or settle into a comfortable stalking position just behind First Peace if that one commits to the front end. In either case, the son of Not This Time should have no excuses. His speed figures have produced a forward move in each of his four prior races and there’s a reasonable likelihood that his improving pattern continues. Nagirroc finished a respectable third behind two talented European invaders in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf-G1 at Keeneland in November and while a perfect trip may have flattered his performance the figure he earned in that race makes him the likely choice and one to beat. Winner of the Futurity S.-G3 sprinting on grass at Aqueduct in his previous outing, the Graham Motion-trained son of Lea picks up Flavian Prat and projects to inherit an ideal second flight, stalking trip and then have every chance from there.

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RACE 4: Post: 1:29 PT Grade: B
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-Nolo Contesto
Backups/Savers: none

Forecast: Nolo Contesto once hung a photo on Omaha Beach over this track and distance back in 2019 and was considered at that time to be something of a 3-year-old classic prospect. But the son of Pioneerof the Nile has a history of being started and stopped on a bunch of times since then, and almost four years later he’s still looking for his next victory. Maybe it will come today. After shaking off some of the rust in his latest comeback when third in a fast sprint at Del Mar last month, the John Sadler-trained ridgling should be capable of stretching out and handling this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claiming field, especially with the switch to Flavian Prat. His morning line of 5/2 seems reasonable in a race in which nothing else can be backed with any degree of confidence.

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RACE 5: Post: 2:01 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-San Anton; 7-Looks Rare; 3-Single Track Mind
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: This is an inscrutable maiden juvenile turf miler in which nothing would surprise. Use as many as your budget allows. By default, we’ve landed on European invader San Anton, though due to his connections (Phil D’Amato/Flavian Prat) he’s certain to receive tote action that he may not deserve. His form in Ireland isn’t too bad but it’s not that good either, and he was last of three in a training track team drill six days in a workout that we would describe as disappointing. On the other hand, if it’s not him, it could be anybody. Looks Rare exits a maiden $50,000 sprint but he flashed good speed and earned a decent number when a reasonable runner-up and his pedigree spells distance, so perhaps the Doug O’Neill-trained son of Hoppertunity will shake loose early and get brave. Single Track Mind took the worst of the race flow when closing willingly against slow fractions to be second in a similar event at Del Mar earlier this month. Hopefully, he’ll get a bit more help up front today. Best advice is to tread lightly.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:32 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 7-Big Newton ; 5-Big Bell; 1-Sugar Sugar
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: Here’s another difficult affair in which several among this group of bottom-rung maiden claiming fillies and mares must be considered for inclusion on your ticket. We’ll go three-deep and hope that’s enough. Big Newton chased tougher maiden $50,000 foes in her debut at Los Alamitos, and while she finished last of seven after a rugged start the Steve Miyadi-trained filly actually earned an okay speed figure, one that if improved upon could make her dangerous in this weak affair. Under the circumstances, her morning line of 5-1 isn’t unreasonable. Big Bell has a look based on the route-to-sprint angle and the switch to Flavian Prat. Her only prior one-turn race – her debut over this main track last summer - resulted in a runner-up performance under this jockey that in this context wasn’t half bad. Sugar Sugar removes blinkers (again) and is likely to display speed from her rail post. Maybe she can shake loose early and keep going.

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RACE 7: Post: 3:02 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 10-Slevka
Backups/savers: 6-Kitty Kitana; 3-Briefcase Girl

Forecast: Slevka makes her U.S. debut under first level allowance conditions that suit her to a “T.” Stakes-placed in good company sprinting at Deauville last summer and racing with Lasix for the first time, she has trained splendidly since arriving in the States for Phil D’Amato (25% with a strong ROI with Euro shippers) and should adore the local lawn’s firm ground, something she saw little of in France. Capable of winning on the lead but more likely to benefit from a patient, stalking trip, she is listed at 4-1 on the morning line and that seems about right. Kitty Kitana has been beaten in races that we think she should have won, so we’ll consider her somewhat untrustworthy in this downhill turf sprint. That said, the English-bred sophomore filly arguably is good enough to win with her best effort, and this turn back in trip over a tricky layout she’s run well over in the past makes her a major player. Briefcase Girl is a prototype late-running turf sprinter and is among the most dangerous of the closers. Her one prior outing down the hill was non-productive, but it came against much tougher foes in the Unzip Stakes last fall and this group should be well within her range. ______________________________________________________________________________
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RACE 8: Post: 3:32 PT Grade: C
Main ticket (in order of preference): 6-Egomania; 1-Sippin N Kissin
Backups/savers: 9-Maynard

Forecast: Egomania and 1-Slippin N Kissin might the two most logical entrants in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 claimers over a mile on the main track, but both hail from low percentage outfits that are tough to back with confidence. The former has hit the board in his last three with speed figures that are better than par for this level, so it’s hard to imagine him not running well again, even winning, while the latter has the benefit of the rail and earned a career top number (albeit at Los Alamitos) when third in a starter allowance $30,000 affair 13 days ago. He’s about as one-paced as it gets but should draft into a second flight, stalking position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Maynard is stuck in the 9-hole and will need some luck to work out a decent trip but he did run well enough over this track and distance during the fall season to warrant at least a little bit of a look.

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RACE 9: Post: 4:30 PT Grade: B+
Main ticket (in order of preference): 5-G Laurie
Backups/savers: none

Forecast: G Laurie graduated at first asking in very impressive fashion at Colonial Downs last summer and then verified that highly favorable impression when ambitiously placed in the Natalma S.-G1 at Woodbine, where she attracted serious action on the tote (3-1) before performing quite well to be third in an effort that earned a Beyer speed figure of 75 that was 18 points better that her first outing. Entered but scratched from the BC Juvenile Fillies Turf due to illness, she makes her West Coast debut in this year’s renewal of the Blue Norther Stakes that should be well within her capabilities. The daughter of the promising first crop turf stallion Oscar Performance will race with blinkers, an equipment change that seems warranted after she appeared somewhat green and unfocused through the stretch in the Natalma. With the hood on, she was breezing and relaxed in a bullet half mile dirt track team drill eight days ago, so we’re expecting the Graham Motion-trained filly to settle in mid-pack early and then be asked to quicken from the quarter pole home. At 5/2 on the morning line, she is a win play and rolling exotic single.


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