Arabian Knight retains the top spot on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after a dominant victory in Oaklawn Park’s Grade III Southwest Stakes last Saturday (Jan. 28) for Hall of Famer Bob Baffert, trainer of Triple Crown winners American Pharoah and Justify.

What did Baffert think of Arabian Knight’s Southwest? Baffert said the colt’s performance was “like an American Pharoah-type race.”

Wow. That’s high praise.

The Southwest was contested in the sort of weather that makes umbrellas important. Dashing to the front at once, Arabian Knight and Hall of Fame rider John Velazquez set the pace on the sloppy track.

After Arabian Knight had a two-length cushion with a furlong to go, he increased his advantage thereafter to win by 5 1/2 lengths in 1:43.50 as the 2-5 favorite.

Red Route One, trained by Hall of Famer Steve Asmussen, trailed through the early furlongs and rallied for second at 15-1 while never threatening the winner. Frosted Departure ended up third at 46-1.

Corona Bolt, sent off as the 5-2 second favorite, finished sixth while racing around two turns for the first time. He was two for two going into the Southwest following wins in a Churchill Downs maiden special weight sprint and Fair Grounds’ six-furlong Sugar Bowl Stakes.

Arabian Knight’s Southwest victory was all the more impressive because the Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt was returning from a layoff and had been shipped to Arkansas from California, plus he was racing around two turns for the first time and competing on a wet track for the first time. This was Arabian Knight’s first start since his dazzling 7 1/4-length win in his career debut as a 3-5 favorite vs. maidens in a seven-furlong race at Keeneland on Nov. 5.

After Arabian Knight recorded a 97 Beyer Speed Figure in his debut triumph, the $2.3 million auction purchase posted a 96 in the Southwest.

Coming down the lane in the Southwest, Arabian Knight looked to be making a paddling motion with his left foreleg. This brought to mind Vekoma, a noted “paddler” from a few years ago.

Daily Racing Form’s Jay Privman wrote this following Vekoma’s victory in the Grade II Blue Grass Stakes in 2019: Vekoma “has awkward action -- he paddles badly with his left front -- but he can run.”

Even with his paddling, Vekoma managed to win the Blue Grass by a decisive 3 1/2 lengths. Indeed, though Vekoma was a paddler, all he did was win six of eight lifetime starts and get a 110 Beyer Speed Figure when he won the Grade I Carter Handicap by 2 1/4 lengths on a sloppy track and a 104 Beyer when he won the Grade I Met Mile on dry land by 1 1/4 lengths.

In other words, being a paddler did not preclude Vekoma from running fast and winning at the Grade I level. That suggests one should not necessarily assume paddling would keep Arabian Knight from running fast and winning at the Grade I level. While there are those who did not particularly like what Arabian Knight was doing with his left front leg in the Southwest during the stretch run of the Southwest, it bears repeating that Baffert said that he saw the colt’s performance as being American Pharoah-like.

Baffert now has won the Southwest a record six times, including both divisions in 2012. Below are his Southwest winners:

2023 Arabian Knight (97 Beyer Speed Figure)
2022 Newgrange (89)
2013 Super Ninety Nine (102)
2012 Castaway (92)*
2012 Secret Circle (102)*
2010 Conveyance (97)

*Run in divisions

How many of Baffert’s Southwest winners prior to this year went on to win the Kentucky Derby? The answer is none. Nevertheless, Arabian Knight remains in the top spot on my Top 10.

Johnny V. now has won the Southwest three times. That puts him in a tie with Larry Snyder and Rafael Bejarano for most Southwest victories by a jockey.

Not only does Arabian Knight occupy the top spot on my Kentucky Derby Top 10 this week after taking care of business in the Southwest, the rankings are exactly the same as they were last week.

Daily Racing Form’s Brad Free has provided an update concerning No. 3 Cave Rock, who as of Feb. 1 had not had a published workout since finishing second as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile on Nov. 4. Prior to his BC Juvenile setback, Cave Rock had won three straight by margins of 5 1/4 lengths or more. Cave Rock captured both the Grade I Del Mar Futurity and Grade I American Pharoah Stakes last year for Baffert.

Baffert had said a while back that Oaklawn Park’s Grade II Rebel Stakes on Feb. 25 was the target for Cave Rock’s first 2023 race. But Free reported this week that “time may have run out” for the Kentucky-bred Arrogate colt to make his return in the Rebel, with Baffert acknowledging “it’s getting tight.”

Cave Rock has been galloping, according to Baffert, who added that “the rain set me back a little bit” with him.

My Kentucky Derby Top 10 for this week is below:

1. Arabian Knight
2. Forte
3. Cave Rock
4. Banishing
5. Cyclone Mischief
6. Instant Coffee
7. Giant Mischief
8. Arabian Lion
9. Verifying
10. Hejazi

Bubbling Under My Top 10 (in alphabetical order):

Angel of Empire
Blazing Sevens
Curly Jack
Damon’s Mound
Disarm
Faustin
Geaux Rocket Ride
Harlocap
Hit Show
Kingsbarns
Litigate
National Treasure
Newgate
Please Be Nice
Practical Move
Red Route One
Reincarnate
Shopper’s Revenge
Signator
Tapit Trice
Worcester
Victory Formation

HOLY BULL STAKES SELECTIONS

Eight are slated to clash in Gulfstream Park’s Grade III Holy Bull Stakes at 1 1/16 miles this Saturday (Feb. 4).

It appears to me that Cyclone Mischief is going to be extremely tough to beat. He comes off a sparkling 5 3/4-length win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming affair at Gulfstream on Jan. 8, an effort that produced a 90 Beyer Speed Figure.

Dale Romans trains Cyclone Mischief, a Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt.

“I think he’s one of the best 3-year-olds in the country, and he’s training like one,” Romans was quoted as saying of Cyclone Mischief on the Gulfstream Park website. “There are a lot of good horses out there, but we’re in a good spot right now.”

Cyclone Mischief has quite a Beyer advantage in the Holy Bull. The next-best figure to his 90 by a Holy Bull entrant is Rocket Can’s 82, which he registered the last time he raced at Churchill Downs on Nov. 26. Rocket Can lost by a half-length when finishing second beneath the Twin Spires that day in a 1 1/16-mile allowance/optional claiming contest.

Other than Cyclone Mischief and Rocket Can, no one in the Holy Bull has recorded a Beyer Speed Figure higher than a 75.

Hall of Famer Bill Mott trains Rocket Can.

Mott also will be represented in the Holy Bull by Shadow Dragon, who hasn’t competed since finishing sixth in the Sleepy Hollow Stakes for New York-breds at Aqueduct on Oct. 30. In his only other start, Shadow Dragon came from far back to win a six-furlong maiden special weight race for New York-breds by three-quarters of a length on Sept. 29.

Lord Miles came on in the lane to finish third in Gulfstream Park’s one-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes on New Year’s Day. He had raced once prior to that, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight race at Gulfstream by 5 3/4 lengths.

A bullet five-furlong workout in :59.60 at Palm Meadows last Friday (Jan. 27) could be a hint that Lord Miles is going prove a tough customer in the Holy Bull while racing with blinkers for the first time. Also, it’s a plus for Lord Miles that his Holy Bull pilot will be four-time Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

Legacy Isle has finished first in each of his three lifetime starts. However, he was disqualified and placed second for causing interference in the Mucho Macho Man.

Below are my selections for the Holy Bull Stakes:

1. Cyclone Michief
2. Lord Miles
3. Rocket Can
4. Legacy Isle

ROBERT B. LEWIS STAKES SELECTIONS

The record for most Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes victories by a trainer is held by Baffert. He’s won it 10 times (General Challenge in 1999, Domestic Dispute in 2003, Pioneerof the Nile in 2009, Flashback in 2013, Dortmund in 2015, Mor Spirit in 2016, Mucho Gusto in 2019, Thousand Words in 2020, Medina Spirit in 2021 and Messier in 2022).

Baffert is a cinch to get his 11th Lewis win this Saturday (Feb. 4). Only four are entered in the Grade III, 1 1/16-mile race. Baffert trains all four.

Has one trainer ever had every single horse entered in a race? Perhaps it’s happened sometime in the past, but I’m not aware of it.

I do know of one instance when a major race in the United States did have just one trainer in it.

Bud Delp trained the only horse who started in the Grade I Woodward Stakes at Belmont Park in 1980. That was Spectacular Bid’s historic walkover.

“There hadn’t been a ‘walkover’ in a major stake in the U.S. since Coaltown’s bloodless triumph in the Edward Burke Handicap at Havre de Grace on April 23, 1949,” Joe Hirsch wrote in the American Racing Manual.

However, unlike Baffert training all of the entrants in this year’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes, Spectacular Bid was not the only horse who had been entered in the $217,500 Woodward of 1980. Dr. Patches, Temperence Hill and Winter’s Tale also were entered, but all three scratched, thus creating the walkover. All Spectacular Bid had to do in order to collect $73,300 was to “walk” the 1 1/4-mile distance of the race.

“Normally, the winner’s share of the $217,500 purse would be $130,500,” Hirsch wrote, noting that New York Racing Association rules called for only 50% of the winner’s share to be paid in a walkover, with “the remainder reverting to the racing association.”

While the 1980 Woodward was a walkover, Spectacular Bid did a lot more than merely walk. It was decided that “the Bid” would have what essentially was a 1 1/4-mile public workout between the seventh and eighth races on the Belmont Park card.

All by himself and always in hand, Spectacular Bid covered the 1 1/4 miles in a 2:02 2/5, excellent time under the circumstances. Jockey Bill Shoemaker was in the saddle. Spectacular Bid’s final quarter-mile was clocked in :24 1/5.

Shoemaker rode a plethora of all-time greats besides Spectacular Bid, such as Kelso, Dr. Fager, Swaps, Forego, Buckpasser, Damascus, Round Table and John Henry.

After Shoemaker had become a trainer following his phenomenal career as a jockey, he once told me, without equivocation, that Spectacular Bid was the best horse that he ever rode. I asked Shoemaker why that was so.

“Because he had the most gears of all the horses I ever rode,” Shoemaker said.

Getting back to this Saturday’s Robert A. Baffert Stakes, officially known as the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, I’m going with Arabian Lion on top.

Arabian Lion kicked off his racing career with a front-running three-length win in a six-furlong maiden special weight race last Oct. 9 at Santa Anita (92 Beyer Speed Figure). In his next start, he recorded a 93 Beyer when second to Giant Mischief in a seven-furlong allowance/optional claiming race on Nov. 4 at Keeneland. In that Nov. 4 race, though Arabian Light did not win, he finished a whopping 17 1/2 lengths in front of third-place Old Alliance.

Most recently, Arabian Lion laid an egg as the 2-5 favorite in the Grade II Los Alamitos Futurity at 1 1/16 miles on Dec. 17. He finished fifth, 12 lengths behind the victorious Practical Move.

Baffert recently told me that I can go ahead and draw a line through Arabian Lion’s loss at Los Al. Baffert didn’t say why, but Arabian Lion’s five-furlong bullet drill in :58.80 at Santa Anita last Sunday would seem to suggest that the Kentucky-bred Justify colt might well rebound and win the Lewis.

Keep in mind that Arabian Lion will be racing with blinkers again in the Lewis. He’s one for one with blinkers, zero for two without.

Newgate goes into the Lewis off a good try when the runner-up in Santa Anita’s Grade III Sham Stakes at one mile on Jan. 8. He lost by a neck to the Baffert-trained Reincarnate.

Worchester should not be taken lightly in the Lewis even though he’s a maiden. He received an 85 Beyer Speed Figure when fourth in a six-furlong maiden special weight sprint at Santa Anita on Dec. 26. Worchester then improved dramatically to a 94 Beyer when second to $3.55 million Hejazi in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight race on a wet track rated as good Jan. 15 at Santa Anita.

Hard to Figure is making his first start since he ran fifth in Del Mar’s Grade III Bob Hope Stakes on Nov. 20 (Newgate finished second). He won the Capote Stakes at Los Alamitos in September.

Below are my selections for the Robert B. Lewis Stakes:

1. Arabian Lion
2. Newgate
3. Worcester
4. Hard to Figure

**NOTE: Withers Stakes postponed due to impending weather at Aqueduct; rescheduled for Feb. 11 **

A half-dozen 3-year-olds are entered in Aqueduct’s Grade III Withers Stakes at 1 1/8 miles this Saturday (Feb. 4).

I will be surprised if the winner isn’t either Arctic Arrogance or Hit Show.

Arctic Arrogance ran second in Aqueduct’s Jerome Stakes at one mile on a wet track listed as good Jan. 7. The New York-bred Frosted colt also was the runner-up in the Grade II Remsen Stakes at 1 1/8 miles on a sloppy track Dec. 3 at the Big A for trainer Linda Rice. Arctic Arrogance will be racing with blinkers for the first time in the Withers.

Hit Show was scratched from last Saturday’s Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park (probably a good move in light of Arabian Knight’s winning performance) to go instead in the Withers for trainer Brad Cox.

A Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt, Hit Show has won two of three career starts. He’s coming off a 3 1/2-length win in a one-mile allowance/optional claiming race on Dec. 17 at Oaklawn.

Below are my selections for the Withers Stakes:

1. Arctic Arrogance
2. Hit Show
3. Ninetyprcentmaddie
4. General Banker

NTRA REVEALS FIRST POLLS FOR 2023

The first editions of this year’s NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll and Top 3-Year-old Poll were announced Monday.

The Top Thoroughbred Poll is indicative of who might be crowned a divisional champion and, moreover, Horse of the Year. Eligible journalists and broadcasters each week submit their Top 10 horses, with points awarded on a 10-9-8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 points basis.

The 2023 Top Thoroughbred Poll concludes after the Breeders’ Cup at Santa Anita on Nov. 3-4.

Voting in the final Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2023 will be released following the Grade I Belmont Stakes at Belmont Park on June 10.

Art Collector, who won Gulfstream Park’s Grade I Pegasus World Cup by 4 1/2 lengths in a 15-1 upset, is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2023, which is listed below:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 280 Art Collector (17)
2. 198 Taiba (8)
3. 146 Defunded
4. 140 Atone
5. 133 Country Grammer (3)
5. 101 Cody’s Wish
7. 88 Nest (1)
8. 73 Elite Power
9. 60 Queen Goddess
10. 49 Clairiere

The Top 10 in the final NTRA Top Thoroughbred Poll of 2022:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 360 Flightline (36)
2. 286 Malathaat
3. 237 Olympiad
4. 178 Modern Games
5. 168 Life Is Good
6. 138 Cody’s Wish
7. 96 Epicenter
8. 94 Taiba
9. 73 Goodnight Olive
10. 67 Nest

FIRST 3-YEAR-OLD POLL TOPPED BY FORTE

Forte, the Eclipse Award-winning 2-year-old male of 2022, won the Grade I Hopeful Stakes, Grade I Breeders’ Futurity and Grade I Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year. He is No. 1 on the Top 10 in the first NTRA Top 3-Year-Old Poll of 2023:

Rank Points Horse (First-Place Votes)

1. 274 Forte (15)
2. 265 Arabian Knight (13)
3. 209 Instant Coffee (1)
3. 157 Cave Rock
5. 95 Victory Formation
6. 79 Blazing Sevens
7. 71 Havnameltdown
7. 69 Reincarnate
9. 47 National Treasure
10. 41 Wonder Wheel

CONGRATULATIONS TO CURLIN

As a racehorse, Curlin was Horse of the Year in both 2007 and 2008. He was inducted into the Hall of Fame in 2014.

As a sire, Curlin made history when the 2022 Eclipse Awards were announced last week, according to BloodHorse’s Eric Mitchell.

Curlin became the first sire in the 52-year history of the Eclipse Awards to be represented by three individual champions in one year -- Nest (champion 3-year-old filly), Malathaat (champion older dirt female) and Elite Power (champion male sprinter).

There have been 14 stallions represented by two individual Eclipse Award winners in the same year. Listed alphabetically, they are:

Alydar (Alysheba and Easy Goer in 1988)

Cee’s Tizzy (Gourmet Girl and Tiznow in 2001)

City Zip (Dayatthespa and Work All Week in 2014)

Cox’s Ridge (Life’s Magic and Vanlandingham in 1985)

Deputy Minister (Go for Wand and Open Mind in 1989)

Into Mischief (Authentic and Gamine in 2020)

Mr. Prospector (Conquistador Cielo and Gold Beauty in 1982)

Nureyev (Miesque and Theatrical in 1987)

Quality Road (Abel Tasman and Caledonia Road in 2017)

Sadler’s Wells (High Chaparral and Islington in 2003)

Saint Ballado (Ashado and Saint Liam in 2005)

Seattle Slew (Swale and Slew o’ Gold in 1984)

Seeking the Gold (Flanders and Heavenly Prize in 1994)

Smart Strike (Curlin and Englinish Channel in 2007)

ECLIPSE AWARD PREDICTIONS SCOREBOARD

In terms of my annual Eclipse Award predictions for 2022, it turned out that I had 16 correct and one wrong.

My lone incorrect prediction was in the male turf category. I predicted Rebel Romance. The winner was Modern Games.

The first year that I made Eclipse Award predictions for Xpressbet.com was for racing conducted in 2011. Now including 2022, my Eclipse Award predictions have proven to be correct 92.1% of the time:

2011: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2012: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2013: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2014: 17 correct, 0 wrong
2015: 14 correct, 3 wrong
2016: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2017: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2018: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2019: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2020: 15 correct, 2 wrong
2021: 16 correct, 1 wrong
2022: 16 correct, 1 wrong

Total thru 2021: 188 correct, 16 wrong