The Lead:
The first of 3 graded stakes in the Florida Derby series gets underway Saturday in the $250,000 Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. Named for the 1994 Florida Derby winner and eventual Horse of the Year, the Holy Bull matches Triple Crown aspirants at 1-1/16 miles around 2 turns. It will be the longest race to date for 5 of the 8 entrants.

Players at Xpressbet and 1/ST BET can enjoy up to a $10 money-back special on Holy Bull Stakes win bets if their win bets finish second or third.

​Field Depth:
None of the runners entered has won a stakes to date, while LEGACY ISLE, MR BOB and LORD MILES are listed stakes-placed. There is no decided class edge amongst these.

Pace:
WEST COAST COWBOY and CYCLONE MISCHIEF have the most pace of the inner-drawn runners, while LEGACY ISLE is a candidate to make the front while attempting to cross over that pair into the clubhouse turn. This does not look like a fast pace, and it's a configuration heavily favorable to those who can save ground and run near the front.

Our Eyes:
Here are my horse-by-horse notes.

LORD MILES: Rallying third-place finisher in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes (a 1-turn mile), galloping out as well as any past the wire. He has a bullet workout since then, bred for the additional distance and makes a highly notable jockey switch to leading rider Irad Ortiz, Jr. Sure seems like all the chips are in the middle of the table.

WEST COAST COWBOY: No match for LEGACY ISLE in allowance race in November and looks to be second fiddle in the Saffie Joseph Jr. barn to LORD MILES.

SHADOW DRAGON: $375K juvenile purchase with modest pedigree was more of a win-early bidder at age 2, but NY-bred didn't make it to the races until September and has been absent since lackluster stakes try at Aqueduct in October. Hot jockey-trainer combo in Jose Ortiz-Bill Mott, but would be a surprise.

CYCLONE MISCHIEF: Likely favorite has won 2 of last 3, including fast 1-turn mile allowance over the track January 8. Good draw, good running style for this trip. Beaten less than 3 lengths by Instant Coffee, who since their matchup returned to also win the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds.

MR BOB: Could show more early speed with the addition of blinkers after a troubled start in the Mucho Macho Man. But patient-riding Joel Rosario might not be the perfect fit for that. Note Irad Ortiz Jr. jumps off to pilot LORD MILES.

LEGACY ISLE: Rocketed from the rail in the Mucho Macho Man and was first under the wire, only to be disqualified for interference in a marginal call by the stewards. No one's beaten him to the wire yet in 3 starts, but there's serious question he'll be as effective around 2 turns based on very slow final quarters in the 1-turn races. Only 1 work since the Mucho Macho Man indicates that race might have knocked him out a bit more than his returning rivals.

IL MIRACOLO: Ran extremely hard chasing wicked pace in Mucho Macho Man Stakes and gave way late. A more one-paced kind of tempo could keep him in the mix much longer this time, so he's a candidate to improve his placing at a price. Love the fact he's had 3 works since his last race vs. 2 or 1 for his previous rivals in that race. His prior attempts over the track all have been quite solid.

ROCKET CAN: Wide draw will provide some challenge, but he handled such a hurdle in his Churchill maiden win in October. Trainer Bill Mott coming off a huge Saturday at Gulfstream with 3 wins, including $3 million Pegasus World Cup. Seemed to improve in all 4 starts at 2. Colt who edged him in last allowance bid since returned to run a modest third, splitting the field in the Lecomte at Fair Grounds.

Most Certain Exotics Contender:
CYCLONE MISCHIEF has a win over the track, a fantastic draw and a prime running style for this distance / track configuration.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender:
IL MIRACOLO is the pick to rebound at a very nice number.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll):
$60 win IL MIRACOLO. $10 exacta key-box IL MIRACOLO with LORD MILES and CYCLONE MISCHIEF ($40).