Welcome to a continuing handicapping series for our Monday blog space, “Monday Myths.” Each week I’ll use the power of the Betmix database to take common handicapping assumptions and either support or dispel them with data. Betmix data powers the 1/ST BET app and its features like Angler and Birddog give data-minded horseplayers a treasure trove of information in which to query your own curiosities.

Assumption:

As with typical synthetic surfaces, Golden Gate Fields’ results are more unpredictable than other venues racing on dirt.

Background:

It’s El Camino Real Derby Day on Saturday at Northern California’s Golden Gate Fields, drawing many horseplayers to GGF that don’t routinely play the track and its Tapeta surface. Since their proliferation nearly 20 years ago, synthetic surfaces continue to be a lightning rod for handicappers who either embrace or repulse the challenge. Is Golden Gate’s racing less predictable than traditional dirt tracks?

Data Points:

I fired up the Betmix database to look at racing at Golden Gate on the Tapeta and compared to all other tracks in the timeframe since the start of 2020. Given an average field size at Golden Gate smaller than the national average, I looked only at 6 and 7-horse fields to make a more direct comparison.


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In fields of 6 and 7 horses, favorites win 36.7% at Golden Gate Fields on the main track.

In fields of 6 and 7 horses, favorites win 39.5% at other venues on the main track.


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In fields of 6 and 7 horses, the average win odds at Golden Gate Fields is 4.2-to-1 on the main track.

In fields of 6 and 7 horses, the average win odds at other venues is 4.1-to-1 on the main track.


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In fields of 6 and 7 horses, horses 8-1 or higher win 4.6% at Golden Gate Fields on the main track.

In fields of 6 and 7 horses, horses 8-1 or higher win 4.4% at other venues on the main track.


Bottom line:

In all 3 areas compared, the idea that finding a winner at Golden Gate Fields is more difficult than other places is true to some extent. Most significantly is that 2.8% lower strike rate for GGF favorites. The average win odds and propensity for longshot winners are only very slightly in favor of the argument that GGF’s Tapeta makes for a more difficult challenge.

What may make it feel like such a tougher handicapping challenge is the direct comparison with main track races at GGF sister track Santa Anita. There, it’s 42% winning favorites, an average win odds of 3.7-to-1 and just a 3.5% win rate for horses 8-1 or more when comparing over similar 6 and 7-horse field sizes.

Additional details:
You can go into Betmix and run your own queries for a deeper dive into this theory and any that you can create. For instance, run the percentages for other synthetic tracks like Woodbine and Turfway Park.